Month: February 2014

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via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1c0CJ4D williambanzai7

The incidence of cancer worldwide is growing at an alarming pace. A new report by the World Health Organization finds that, as USA Today reports, new cancer cases will skyrocket globally from an estimated 14 million in 2012 to 22 million new cases a year within the next two decades, the report says. During that same period, cancer deaths are predicted to rise from an estimated 8.2 million annually to 13 million a year. The total annual cost globally of cancer was estimated to reach approximately $1.16 trillion in 2010, which is damaging the economies of even the richest countries and is way beyond the reach of developing countries.

Via USA Today,

…

 

The most common cancers diagnosed globally in 2012 were those of the lung (1.8 million cases, 13% of the total), breast (1.7 million, 11.9%), and large bowel (1.4 million, 9.7%), the group says. The most common causes of cancer death were cancers of the lung (1.6 million, 19.4% of the total), liver (0.8 million, 9.1%), and stomach (0.7 million, 8.8%).

 

…

 

"These new figures and projections send a strong signal that immediate action is needed to confront this human disaster, which touches every community worldwide, without exception."

 

The report "actually puts onto paper what a lot of us have been saying for some time," says Otis Brawley, chief medical officer for the American Cancer Society. "The burden of cancer internationally has doubled over the last 20 years, and it will double over the next 20 years. These facts support that we need to be serious about cancer prevention activities."

 

…

 

As a consequence of growing and aging populations, developing countries are disproportionately affected by the increasing numbers of cancers, the report says.

 

More than 60% of the world's total cases occur in Africa, Asia, and Central and South America, and these regions account for about 70% of the world's cancer deaths, a situation that is made worse by the lack of early detection and access to treatment, it says.

 

…

 

The total annual cost globally of cancer was estimated to reach approximately $1.16 trillion in 2010, which is damaging the economies of even the richest countries and is way beyond the reach of developing countries, the report says.

Of course, the ongoing debacle in Fukushima will only exacerabate this trend as we have previously noted here – among Fukushima youths, here, and here – US sailors.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nPeMWm Tyler Durden

As we noted previously there is a race to the bottom between the Argentine currency and its central bank’s reserve balance as day by day both slide seemingly unceasingly. However, as JPMorgan notes in a rather aggressive note, a local press article sheds doubts over Argentina’s ‘honest’ reporting of international reserves. Though long used to the lies about inflation (that ended up with the economy minster being fired and it being deemed ‘illegal’ to tell the truth), JPMorgan blasts that during a balance of payments crisis – as Argentina is undergoing – such manipulation of official statistics (and one so critical for market sentiment) is detrimental to the needed confidence building around the transition in the FX regime and is “a very very bad idea”. Simply put, Argentina is over-stating its reserves… considerably.

Which hits the bottom of the chart first?

Via JPMorgan,

Prior to the week of peso devaluation (Jan 23) the reporting discrepancy (first print minus final report) was running at an average daily -$0.02 billion (and of no interest to investors), during the week of devaluation it jumped to +$0.15 billion and the week following devaluation it increased further to +$0.29 billion. On Jan 30th (last comparable report) the discrepancy was +$0.45 billion.

Authorities have provided no explanation for the initial over-statement of reserves this implies, thus, inviting markets concern over reliability of reserve reporting. Note that the discrepancy between first print and final report does not necessarily imply that the quality of final reserve reporting is deteriorated (only that of the same-day estimate). But by tainting the reliability of first print it will raise market concern over potential lack of reliability of final reporting too.

While first print is preliminary and subject to revision, the size of recent discrepancies have no precedent. This suggest that the government may be attempting to manage expectations by temporarily fudging the “estimate ” of reserve numbers (first print) while not compromising “actual” final reported numbers. If this is so, it is a dangerous game to play and one likely to back-fire.

During a balance of payments crisis – as Argentina is undergoing – such manipulation of official statistics (and one so critical for market sentiment) is detrimental to the needed confidence building around the transition in the FX regime.

Note that informal same-day estimates from market participants about that Central Bank intervention have been higher than same-day reporting of that intervention by authorities lately. With this backdrop in mind, the growing over-statement in same-day reserve level reporting will also lead to suspicion that same-day reporting of FX intervention in spot market by Central Bank is understated.

And as a gentle reminder of the mirage of currency devaluation/hyperinflation on stock returns (cough Japan cough) – here is Argentina’s MERVAL index adjusted for its currency (official and black market) – not the outperformer it was heralded…

Coming to a Develped Market near us soon?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1e17qpP Tyler Durden

As we noted previously there is a race to the bottom between the Argentine currency and its central bank’s reserve balance as day by day both slide seemingly unceasingly. However, as JPMorgan notes in a rather aggressive note, a local press article sheds doubts over Argentina’s ‘honest’ reporting of international reserves. Though long used to the lies about inflation (that ended up with the economy minster being fired and it being deemed ‘illegal’ to tell the truth), JPMorgan blasts that during a balance of payments crisis – as Argentina is undergoing – such manipulation of official statistics (and one so critical for market sentiment) is detrimental to the needed confidence building around the transition in the FX regime and is “a very very bad idea”. Simply put, Argentina is over-stating its reserves… considerably.

Which hits the bottom of the chart first?

Via JPMorgan,

Prior to the week of peso devaluation (Jan 23) the reporting discrepancy (first print minus final report) was running at an average daily -$0.02 billion (and of no interest to investors), during the week of devaluation it jumped to +$0.15 billion and the week following devaluation it increased further to +$0.29 billion. On Jan 30th (last comparable report) the discrepancy was +$0.45 billion.

Authorities have provided no explanation for the initial over-statement of reserves this implies, thus, inviting markets concern over reliability of reserve reporting. Note that the discrepancy between first print and final report does not necessarily imply that the quality of final reserve reporting is deteriorated (only that of the same-day estimate). But by tainting the reliability of first print it will raise market concern over potential lack of reliability of final reporting too.

While first print is preliminary and subject to revision, the size of recent discrepancies have no precedent. This suggest that the government may be attempting to manage expectations by temporarily fudging the “estimate ” of reserve numbers (first print) while not compromising “actual” final reported numbers. If this is so, it is a dangerous game to play and one likely to back-fire.

During a balance of payments crisis – as Argentina is undergoing – such manipulation of official statistics (and one so critical for market sentiment) is detrimental to the needed confidence building around the transition in the FX regime.

Note that informal same-day estimates from market participants about that Central Bank intervention have been higher than same-day reporting of that intervention by authorities lately. With this backdrop in mind, the growing over-statement in same-day reserve level reporting will also lead to suspicion that same-day reporting of FX intervention in spot market by Central Bank is understated.

And as a gentle reminder of the mirage of currency devaluation/hyperinflation on stock returns (cough Japan cough) – here is Argentina’s MERVAL index adjusted for its currency (official and black market) – not the outperformer it was heralded…

Coming to a Develped Market near us soon?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1e17qpP Tyler Durden

If it seems like it was exactly a year ago that turmoiling retailer Radioshack shut down 500 stores due to lack of consumer interest in its wares (and or consumer disposable cash), it is because it was. So how does Radioshack demonstrate its morbid sense of humor on the one year anniversary of said announcement? Well, by closing another 500, or about 12% of the retailer’s total 4500 outlets currently in existence.

The WSJ reports that the company which once was the butt of all LBO-rumor jokes (and still is, only this time in the context of an M&A-rumor with JCPenney and/or the Joseph A. Wearhouse joint venture), is “planning to close around 500 stores in the coming months as the electronics retailer continues working with advisers to restructure the company.”

RSH’s pre-bankruptcy operation problems are well-documented. And funded – “in October, RadioShack secured $835 million in loans to refinance about $625 million of debt. Those funds, from a group led by GE Capital, also freed up cash for RadioShack’s overhaul.” Of course, when said overhaul fails, the loans rolls into a DIP loan which funds the company’s bankruptcy.

As was well-documented during the Super Bowl, the Fort Worth, Texas, retail chain has been working on transforming its image from an old-school electronics store into a destination for shoppers looking for entertainment gadgets, like headphones and smartphone cases. Sadly, it appears to not be working.

The retailer has struggled to reverse a string of losses deepened by a sales strategy focused around smartphones, which failed to improve revenue over the past two years.

 

RadioShack executives last year suggested the company would resist downsizing its store footprint as they focused most of their attention on reinventing the brand’s image. Stores might close in one section of a neighborhood to set up shop in more highly trafficked locales, but the number of outlets would stay the same, they had previously said.

 

“I think we’re a 4,000-plus network,” RadioShack Chief Executive Joe Magnacca said in a November interview. “My job is to make sure that we’ve got the market covered.”

That, or a ‘0-precisely network.‘ And while the Shack struggles to find just what market it is that it covers, if any, the population will enjoy how it spends several months of cash flow on amusing Super Bowl gimmick ads such as this one which is a fitting – and hilarious – epitaph of what happens to every retailer that stop adapting to its current environment.

Finally, while the ultimate fate of Radioshack is quite clear to most, a far more important topic is what happens to all the commercial real estate secuiritizations and/or malls that currently have a RSH location which is about to shutter. Then again, this is the new normal, and things such a fundamentals and cash flows are merely an irrelevant footnote.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1cRumwf Tyler Durden

“It’s not just tapering that is putting pressure on markets,” Marc Faber warns in thie brief clip. “Emerging economies have practically no growth and we have a slowdown in China that is more meaningful than strategists are willing to believe,” he adds and this is “causing a vicious circle to the downside” in inflated asset markets as most of the growth in the world over the last five years has come from emerging markets. Faber suggests Treasuries as a safe haven in the short-term; but is nervous of their value in the long-term as “debt is becoming burdensome on the system.”

“A lot of economic growth was driven by soaring asset prices”

On Treasuries:

“For the next three to six months probably they are a better place to be than equities,”

 

“I don’t like [10-year Treasurys] for the long-term because the maximum you can earn is something like 2.65 percent per annum for the next 10 years, but Treasurys are expected to rally because of economic weakness and a stock market decline. In the last few years at least there was a flight into quality – that is, a flight into Treasurys.”

On China and shadow banking defaults:

“China can handle it by printing money but it will again have unintended negative consequences… but the

problem is real… but it’s not just in China…”

Faber warned of the risks of the present global credit bubble and said another slowdown could follow on the back of rising consumer debt levels – which had previously helped to create growth.

“Total credit as a percent of the global economy is now 30 percent higher than it was at the start of the economic crisis in 2007, we have had rapidly escalating household debt especially in emerging economies and resource economies like Canada and Australia and we have come to a point where household debt has become burdensome on the system—that is, where an economic slowdown follows.”

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ikAk9j Tyler Durden

“It’s not just tapering that is putting pressure on markets,” Marc Faber warns in thie brief clip. “Emerging economies have practically no growth and we have a slowdown in China that is more meaningful than strategists are willing to believe,” he adds and this is “causing a vicious circle to the downside” in inflated asset markets as most of the growth in the world over the last five years has come from emerging markets. Faber suggests Treasuries as a safe haven in the short-term; but is nervous of their value in the long-term as “debt is becoming burdensome on the system.”

“A lot of economic growth was driven by soaring asset prices”

On Treasuries:

“For the next three to six months probably they are a better place to be than equities,”

 

“I don’t like [10-year Treasurys] for the long-term because the maximum you can earn is something like 2.65 percent per annum for the next 10 years, but Treasurys are expected to rally because of economic weakness and a stock market decline. In the last few years at least there was a flight into quality – that is, a flight into Treasurys.”

On China and shadow banking defaults:

“China can handle it by printing money but it will again have unintended negative consequences… but the

problem is real… but it’s not just in China…”

Faber warned of the risks of the present global credit bubble and said another slowdown could follow on the back of rising consumer debt levels – which had previously helped to create growth.

“Total credit as a percent of the global economy is now 30 percent higher than it was at the start of the economic crisis in 2007, we have had rapidly escalating household debt especially in emerging economies and resource economies like Canada and Australia and we have come to a point where household debt has become burdensome on the system—that is, where an economic slowdown follows.”

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ikAk9j Tyler Durden