Month: February 2014

The 10Y yield closed below its 200-day moving average and should test down to 2.47% in the short-term; and Citi's FX Technicals believes the Dow will test its 55-week moving average at 15,214, S&P 500 at 1,707; and Gold's consolidation/correction is over – the uptrend has resumed.

 

Via Citi FX Technicals,

US 10Y yield: Closed below the 200 day moving average and should test 2.47% in the short term

US 30Y yield: Met the initial target at 3.56%. We need to wait for further developments before confirming additional breaks on the weekly chart

Dow Industrials: Closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time since late 2012 and is likely to test the 55 week moving average in the near term at 15,214.

S&P 500: Likely to continue lower towards the 200 day moving average at 1,707.

USDJPY: Breached support levels in the 101.50 area and should test the 200 day moving average at 100.09. Support levels below there are just below 99.00.

Nikkei 225: The next support area is 13,799-918 which needs to be watched on a weekly close basis. The overlay with USDJPY suggests the pair should probably be trading around 99.00 now.

Gold: The morning star pattern on the daily chart and hold of the 55 day moving average tells us the consolidation / correction down is over and the uptrend has resumed.+

US 10 year yield – closed below the 200 day moving average

The close below the 200 day moving average opens the way for a move to the double top neckline at 2.47%

Decent support levels come in just below there at 2.39%-2.41% which would have to be watched on a weekly close basis before confirming any medium term break (and in conjunction with US 30 year yields)

For now a test of 2.47% is expected in the short term

US 30 year yield – initial target met

The initial target of 3.56% which was the double top neckline has been met. Additional supports come in just below at 3.48%-3.49%

While there is a danger of lower yields still (following the monthly reversal seen in January), we would need to see a weekly close below 3.48% and weekly closed below the support levels on US 10 year yields at 2.39% before confirming another break.

Dow Jones Industrial average daily and weekly charts

Left chart: Closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time since late 2012

Right chart: Focus now turns to the 55 week moving average at 15,214. That is likely to be tested in the near term. A weekly close below there, if also seen on the S&P 500 (where the 55 week moving average comes in at 1,672) would amount to a more important medium term bearish break.

S&P 500 – likely to test the 200 day moving average

In the shorter term, the S&P 500 is still at risk of posting further losses down to 1,707 (200 day moving average) and parallel of the trend across the highs.

USDJPY – likely to test the 200 day moving average

Support levels at 101.53-102.12 have given way on a daily close basis

This now opens the way for a move to the 200 day moving average at 100.09

The weekly chart below highlights additional levels and the overlay with the Nikkei 225 highlights the danger of further losses on USDJPY…

USDJPY Weekly Chart

The 55 week moving average and parallel of the trend across the highs converge at 98.33-85

Only a weekly close below there would warrant serious concern over a more medium term horizon.

Nikkei 225 and USDJPY overlay – should USDJPY be lower? – watch the 55 week moving average

The weakness in the Nikkei 225 (which closed below the 200 day moving average today) would suggest USDJPY should be trading around 99.00

The next set of decent supports on the Nikkei 225 are at 13,799-918 where the 55 week moving average and parallel of the trend across the highs converge

We would need to see a weekly close below those levels before confirming any further bearish breaks

Gold – uptrend has likely resumed after consolidation

The negative divergence seen last week has now been unwound after the brief pullback / consolidation

Gold has remained above the 55 day moving average support at $1,235 and has posted a morning star like pattern on the daily candles

This now suggests the uptrend is ready to resume and higher highs are likely

As a reminder, the weekly chart showed another bullish outside week two weeks ago…

A rally above last week’s high at $1,279 opens the way for a move to $1,361-77 and then the more medium term double bottom neckline at $1,433.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1kMarRi Tyler Durden

The 10Y yield closed below its 200-day moving average and should test down to 2.47% in the short-term; and Citi's FX Technicals believes the Dow will test its 55-week moving average at 15,214, S&P 500 at 1,707; and Gold's consolidation/correction is over – the uptrend has resumed.

 

Via Citi FX Technicals,

US 10Y yield: Closed below the 200 day moving average and should test 2.47% in the short term

US 30Y yield: Met the initial target at 3.56%. We need to wait for further developments before confirming additional breaks on the weekly chart

Dow Industrials: Closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time since late 2012 and is likely to test the 55 week moving average in the near term at 15,214.

S&P 500: Likely to continue lower towards the 200 day moving average at 1,707.

USDJPY: Breached support levels in the 101.50 area and should test the 200 day moving average at 100.09. Support levels below there are just below 99.00.

Nikkei 225: The next support area is 13,799-918 which needs to be watched on a weekly close basis. The overlay with USDJPY suggests the pair should probably be trading around 99.00 now.

Gold: The morning star pattern on the daily chart and hold of the 55 day moving average tells us the consolidation / correction down is over and the uptrend has resumed.+

US 10 year yield – closed below the 200 day moving average

The close below the 200 day moving average opens the way for a move to the double top neckline at 2.47%

Decent support levels come in just below there at 2.39%-2.41% which would have to be watched on a weekly close basis before confirming any medium term break (and in conjunction with US 30 year yields)

For now a test of 2.47% is expected in the short term

US 30 year yield – initial target met

The initial target of 3.56% which was the double top neckline has been met. Additional supports come in just below at 3.48%-3.49%

While there is a danger of lower yields still (following the monthly reversal seen in January), we would need to see a weekly close below 3.48% and weekly closed below the support levels on US 10 year yields at 2.39% before confirming another break.

Dow Jones Industrial average daily and weekly charts

Left chart: Closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time since late 2012

Right chart: Focus now turns to the 55 week moving average at 15,214. That is likely to be tested in the near term. A weekly close below there, if also seen on the S&P 500 (where the 55 week moving average comes in at 1,672) would amount to a more important medium term bearish break.

S&P 500 – likely to test the 200 day moving average

In the shorter term, the S&P 500 is still at risk of posting further losses down to 1,707 (200 day moving average) and parallel of the trend across the highs.

USDJPY – likely to test the 200 day moving average

Support levels at 101.53-102.12 have given way on a daily close basis

This now opens the way for a move to the 200 day moving average at 100.09

The weekly chart below highlights additional levels and the overlay with the Nikkei 225 highlights the danger of further losses on USDJPY…

USDJPY Weekly Chart

The 55 week moving average and parallel of the trend across the highs converge at 98.33-85

Only a weekly close below there would warrant serious concern over a more medium term horizon.

Nikkei 225 and USDJPY overlay – should USDJPY be lower? – watch the 55 week moving average

The weakness in the Nikkei 225 (which closed below the 200 day moving average today) would suggest USDJPY should be trading around 99.00

The next set of decent supports on the Nikkei 225 are at 13,799-918 where the 55 week moving average and parallel of the trend across the highs converge

We would need to see a weekly close below those levels before confirming any further bearish breaks

Gold – uptrend has likely resumed after consolidation

The negative divergence seen last week has now been unwound after the brief pullback / consolidation

Gold has remained above the 55 day moving average support at $1,235 and has posted a morning star like pattern on the daily candles

This now suggests the uptrend is ready to resume and higher highs are likely

As a reminder, the weekly chart showed another bullish outside week two weeks ago…

A rally above last week’s high at $1,279 opens the way for a move to $1,361-77 and then the more medium term double bottom neckline at $1,433.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1kMarRi Tyler Durden

Redefining “hands on” since the second coming of the USSR

???????? ????? ??????? ????? ?????????? ? ???????????? ???????? ? ???? http://ift.tt/1fLfKOY

— ??? ??????? (@rianru) February 4, 2014

Others, meanwhile, have different problems on their hands

My hotel has no water. If restored, the front desk says, “do not use on your face because it contains something very dangerous.” #Sochi2014

— Stacy St. Clair (@StacyStClair) February 4, 2014

… and backs.

One of rooms Canada men’s hockey team will stay in http://ift.tt/MWyVMi

— Stephen Whyno (@SWhyno) February 4, 2014

Finally, breakfast in Sochi

Breakfast in Sochi http://ift.tt/1fLfKP3

— Stephen Whyno (@SWhyno) February 4, 2014

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fLfL5x Tyler Durden

Factory Orders dropped 1.5% in December – their biggest fall since July – but modestly beat weak expectations. This drop despite the fact that inventories of manufactured durable goods in December, up eight of the last nine months, increased $3.2 billion or 0.8 percent to $387.9 billion to the highest level since the series was first published. This is the fastest year-over-year inventory build in 6 months – and fastest month-over-month build in 15 months.

• *U.S. DEC. DURABLES ORDERS DROP 4.2%; NON-DURABLES RISE 1.1%
• *DECEMBER FACTORY INVENTORY-TO-SALES RATIO RISES TO 1.29 MONTHS

 

Biggest drop in factory orders in 5 months…

 

as Inventories surge to new record high and at the fastest pace in 6 months…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fLfIGJ Tyler Durden

Who says the only thing bankers are good at is relying on (then blaming) S&P and Moody’s research reports to justify their investments in worthless toxic subprime, then levering up beyond all known limits and putting on unbelievably risky trades in hopes of striking it rich or blowing up and getting bailed out by taxpayers. According to Bloomberg…

These young bankers are trying to save the world: http://t.co/BPXFEqWb7e http://ift.tt/1nNOeEV

— Bloomberg News (@BloombergNews) February 4, 2014

Huh? Bloomberg, luckily, explains.

The founders of the Resolution Project don’t dwell on generosity or charity when they describe why their nonprofit mentors and funds young leaders. They favor the language of finance. “We get good yield,” said Andrew Harris, the group’s 31-year-old vice chairman, who advises private-equity firms at Forum Capital Partners in New York. “We think it’s very different and, to use a Wall Street term, very differentiated.”

 

Without deserting careers, a new wave of young bankers is starting nonprofits to help orphans, immigrants, veterans and students. They say they’re moved to mend the world using capitalism’s wisdom, not because of its shortcomings, preaching the power of dividends, due diligence, leverage and efficient allocation of resources. Some see themselves setting a new mold for post-crisis Wall Street philanthropy by not waiting to give away their money or leaving for full-time charity work.

 

“Among this generation — our generation — is a deep passion and interest in learning, earning and returning simultaneously,” said Andrew Klaber, 32, an analyst at hedge fund Paulson & Co. whose nonprofit Even Ground provides education and care to African children affected by AIDS. “You just see an unmet need in your research, and research is what we do on Wall Street.”

Uhm, what? Some pearls of explanation.

“I’m a starter of things,” said Oliver Libby, another co-founder of the Resolution Project, which will hold competitions for student social ventures at the United Nations Youth Assembly this month and the Clinton Global Initiative University in Phoenix in March. “I just have fun with it. So there’s a certain aspect of me that just is like, yeah, sure, let’s get that started, let’s go.”

…

 

“I’ve never run a hedge fund, and they’ve never run a not-for-profit,” said Lublin, 42, now chief executive officer of Do Something, an organization that runs national campaigns about bullying, the environment and other causes to engage teenagers. “I brush my teeth every day, twice a day, that doesn’t mean I’m ready to perform a root canal on somebody.”

…

 

“There’s been a cultural humility that’s come out of the financial crisis,” said Tim Kleiman, 30, an analyst for New York-based asset manager Golub Capital. He’s working on a project to fund higher education in Africa that may aim for profit. “When you’re confronted with these really humbling events, where you see the meltdown of these systems and the sad human costs of that — that were not necessarily the result of anyone’s intention — for me it galvanized my thinking.”

 

Kleiman, a Yale University graduate who worked for McKinsey & Co. and hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. before Golub, said he doesn’t want to wait for his career to hit its high point before undertaking meaningful projects.

 

“That world that I’m imagining, where I’m a partner and I’ve made all my money, who knows what that world’s going to look like?” he said. “So why not try something now?”

Truly an utopia. As for this fluff piece: there are some things money can’t buy, for everything else there is Bloomberg PR.

Then again even the Catholic Church has a name for this: indulgence.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nNOh3z Tyler Durden

Who says the only thing bankers are good at is relying on (then blaming) S&P and Moody’s research reports to justify their investments in worthless toxic subprime, then levering up beyond all known limits and putting on unbelievably risky trades in hopes of striking it rich or blowing up and getting bailed out by taxpayers. According to Bloomberg…

These young bankers are trying to save the world: http://t.co/BPXFEqWb7e http://ift.tt/1nNOeEV

— Bloomberg News (@BloombergNews) February 4, 2014

Huh? Bloomberg, luckily, explains.

The founders of the Resolution Project don’t dwell on generosity or charity when they describe why their nonprofit mentors and funds young leaders. They favor the language of finance. “We get good yield,” said Andrew Harris, the group’s 31-year-old vice chairman, who advises private-equity firms at Forum Capital Partners in New York. “We think it’s very different and, to use a Wall Street term, very differentiated.”

 

Without deserting careers, a new wave of young bankers is starting nonprofits to help orphans, immigrants, veterans and students. They say they’re moved to mend the world using capitalism’s wisdom, not because of its shortcomings, preaching the power of dividends, due diligence, leverage and efficient allocation of resources. Some see themselves setting a new mold for post-crisis Wall Street philanthropy by not waiting to give away their money or leaving for full-time charity work.

 

“Among this generation — our generation — is a deep passion and interest in learning, earning and returning simultaneously,” said Andrew Klaber, 32, an analyst at hedge fund Paulson & Co. whose nonprofit Even Ground provides education and care to African children affected by AIDS. “You just see an unmet need in your research, and research is what we do on Wall Street.”

Uhm, what? Some pearls of explanation.

“I’m a starter of things,” said Oliver Libby, another co-founder of the Resolution Project, which will hold competitions for student social ventures at the United Nations Youth Assembly this month and the Clinton Global Initiative University in Phoenix in March. “I just have fun with it. So there’s a certain aspect of me that just is like, yeah, sure, let’s get that started, let’s go.”

…

 

“I’ve never run a hedge fund, and they’ve never run a not-for-profit,” said Lublin, 42, now chief executive officer of Do Something, an organization that runs national campaigns about bullying, the environment and other causes to engage teenagers. “I brush my teeth every day, twice a day, that doesn’t mean I’m ready to perform a root canal on somebody.”

…

 

“There’s been a cultural humility that’s come out of the financial crisis,” said Tim Kleiman, 30, an analyst for New York-based asset manager Golub Capital. He’s working on a project to fund higher education in Africa that may aim for profit. “When you’re confronted with these really humbling events, where you see the meltdown of these systems and the sad human costs of that — that were not necessarily the result of anyone’s intention — for me it galvanized my thinking.”

 

Kleiman, a Yale University graduate who worked for McKinsey & Co. and hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. before Golub, said he doesn’t want to wait for his career to hit its high point before undertaking meaningful projects.

 

“That world that I’m imagining, where I’m a partner and I’ve made all my money, who knows what that world’s going to look like?” he said. “So why not try something now?”

Truly an utopia. As for this fluff piece: there are some things money can’t buy, for everything else there is Bloomberg PR.

Then again even the Catholic Church has a name for this: indulgence.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nNOh3z Tyler Durden