Equities Spike To Record Highs As US Macro Hits 2-Month Lows

Treasury yields are up 1-2bps; the USD is flat; gold and silver are up modestly; but stocks are screaming higher to all-time highs in the Trannies and S&P. All of this is occurring as PMI and ISM missed expectations this morning and the US Macro Surprise index in the US (worst of all nations year to date) is at 2-month lows. What’s behind it? FOMO, POMO, YOLO? All we can say is the S&P has never been this far above the Fed balance sheet (over 50 points rich) since QE began.

Equities are notably rich to Fed balance sheet and US macro is not supportive

 

As the disconnect grows…

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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Putin Slams US $9 Billion Fine Against French BNP As “Blackmail” For Russian Warship Deal

Recall that about a month ago we reported that shortly after France was stunned to see its largest bank slammed by its bestest buddy, the US, with a record $9 billion fine, “France responded to the fine by announcing it will train hundreds of Russian seamen to operate the French-Made Warship“, the Mistral. In other words, for all the angry rhetoric of sanctions against Russia, France was merely the latest country to admit that it too can’t exist without Russian business (not to mention natural gas) even if, or especially if, it means incurring US wrath which is taken out on its banking institutions. After all, if the US is engaging in scorched earth tactics France needs a stable trade partner, especially if it is one who turns on the gas, so to speak.

As a reminder, this is what all the commotion is about:

 

However, it turns out that was only a small part of the story.

Earlier today, when speaking to Russian diplomats in Moscow, Vladimir Putin accused the U.S. of blackmailing France to scrap a contract to sell Russia Mistral warships by offering to cut a record $8.97 billion fine against BNP Paribas. From Bloomberg:

France’s largest bank agreed to plead guilty in court documents yesterday to processing almost $9 billion in banned transactions involving Sudan, Iran and Cuba from 2004 to 2012. The company will be temporarily barred from handling some U.S. dollar transactions.

 

French President Francois Hollande has refused to cancel a contract to sell two Mistral-class helicopter carriers to Russia in the face of criticism from the U.S.

 

“We know about the pressure which our U.S. partners are applying on France not to supply the Mistrals to Russia,” Putin told Russian diplomats in Moscow today. “And we even know that they hinted that if the French don’t deliver the Mistrals, they would quietly get rid of the sanctions against the bank, or at least minimize them,” he said without naming BNP Paribas.

 

“What is that if not blackmail?” Putin said.

Well it is blackmail, but what’s worse it shows to what depths the US will fall when it fails to get its way in the international arena even with its so-called allies, which under Obama, is essentially always.

But one wonders: since the biggest opponent of Russian sanctions in Europe is, by and far, Germany – despite what Merkel spouts any given day – and since Russia is sure to antagonize the US in the coming months, one wonders: just what legal and criminal action will the US reveal against Deutsche Bank in the coming months as first blackmail, then “punishment” for daring to engage America’s suddenly most hated superpower adversary?

And perhaps a better question: with US foreign policy set to continue its disastrous ways, does this mean that the best way to profit from the incompetence of John Kerry et al is merely to short a basket of European banks? After all, if it happened with BNP it is sure to happen elsewhere in Europe –  a continent which, for better or worse, is now wrapped around Putin’s gas finger.




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FINRA Unleashes Dark Pool Fury On Goldman Next With Whopping $800,000 Fine

In case there is still any confusion on whose behalf the US regulators work when they “fine” banks, the latest announcement from Finra should make it all clear.

Recall the spectacle full of pomp and circumstance surrounding NY AG Scheinderman’s demolition of Barclays after it was announced that the bank had lied to its customers to drive more traffic to Barclays LX, its dark pool, and allow HFT algos to frontrun buyside traffic. Yes, it was warranted, and the immediate result was the complete collapse in all buyside Barclays dark pool volume, meaning predatory HFT algos would have to find some other dark pool where to frontrun order flow. Such as Goldman’s Sigma X.

Which brings us to, well, Goldman’s Sigma X, which moments ago, in a far less pompous presentation, was fined – not by the AG, not by the SEC, but by lowly Finra – for Failing to Prevent Trade-Throughs in its Alternative Trading System.

In essence, what Goldman is said to have done is engage in the same latency arbitrage gimmicks that Michael Lewis and so many others have accused the “fair and efficient” US equity markets of doing for years. From Finra:

The Order Protection Rule generally requires that trading centers trade at the best-quoted prices or route orders to the trading centers quoting the best prices. FINRA found that from July 29, 2011, through August 9, 2011, there were more than 395,000 transactions executed in SIGMA-X where the execution traded through a protected quotation at a price inferior to the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO).

 

During the eight-day trading period, Goldman Sachs was unaware that it was trading through a protected quotation in these instances. The trade-throughs were caused by market data latencies at SIGMA-X and were undetected in a timely manner.  [oh they were detected all right – they were also quite intentional but FINRA here is desperately trying to make Goldman appear cleaner than a) it was and b) Barclays] FINRA found that from November 2008 through August 2011, Goldman Sachs failed to establish, maintain, and enforce written policies and procedures that were reasonably designed to prevent trade-throughs of protected quotations in NMS stocks; and failed to regularly surveil to ascertain the effectiveness of its policies and procedures designed to prevent trade-throughs of protected quotations in NMS stocks.

The impact: “In connection with the approximately 395,000 trade-throughs, Goldman Sachs returned $1.67 million to disadvantaged customers.”

The punchline, or rather, the “fine”: $800,000. Also known as a few seconds of revenue for the bank which just like Virtu has at best 1 or 2 days of trading losses per quarter.

Oh, and this:

In settling this matter, Goldman Sachs neither admitted nor denied the charges, but consented to the entry of FINRA’s findings

Becasue the rigged show must go on.




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No More Plastic Bags at Los Angeles Corner Stores, Bodegas

When Los Angeles instituted its plastic bag ban at the start of
the year, large grocery stores were affected immediately. Small
mom-and-pop shops and corner stores were give six months to phase
in compliance. That means today is the day that all stores in Los
Angeles have to stop giving plastic bags to customers. Actually,
that’s not quite true. Just as New York City’s failed large

soda ban
was full of holes on what businesses were affected, so
is the bag ban. CBS LA
notes
:

Clear plastic sacks for produce and meat, along with bags for
pharmacy items, will still be available and free to shoppers.

Establishments such as department stores, restaurants and other
shops that do not sell grocery items will be exempt from the
ban.

I guess plastic bags from department stores that don’t sell food
have a different environmental impact than bags from those who
do?

Anyway, despite Los Angeles City Council member Paul Koretz
claiming that these plastic bags choke and pollute, a recent study
by the Reason Foundation (which publishes this site and
Reason magazine) determined that bag bans were ineffective
in reducing waste and that claims that plastic bags make up a
significant amount of coastal litter are exaggerated. Read their
study here.

Below, Reason TV and Kennedy on L.A.’s ban:

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ISM Manufacturing Drops, Misses By Most Since January

On the heels of Markit's US PMI missing expectations but rising to its highest since May 2010 (with notable inflation signals and domianted by weakness in small business) despite new export orders tumbling; ISM printed at 55.3, down from May and missing expectations. Only 50% of survey respondent s expect to increase jobs – the lowest number in 2014. New export orders also fell in ISM. Following last month's utter SNAFU, we are not exactly sure whether this is real yet. So far the market reaction is positive to this bad news so we do not expect a revision…

 

US PMI missed expectations but reached its highest since May 2010…

Notably, medium-sized manufacturers (100- 499 employees) saw the strongest improvement in business conditions during June, while small-sized manufacturers (1-99 employees) recorded the least marked upturn in overall operating conditions.

As Markit notes (on the tumble in new export orders)…

Export performance, however, remains a real disappointment, and trade will likely act as a drag on the economy again in the second quarter. If worries about tighter policy from the Fed start to dampen domestic demand at the same time as exporters are struggling, growth could slow again in the second half of the year

But then ISM hit…

Remember last month's total SNAFU…So let's not hold our breath quite yet

 

Today's print (so far)

 

The fewest firms since 2013 expect to increase employment and new export orders fell…




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Record GM Recalls Lead To Best June Since 2007

GM sold more cars in June 2014 than any other June since 2007. Just imagine if GM had killed more people, recalled more cars, been busted for more lies, and had more congressional hearings. As GM’s head of sales exudes, this was “the third very strong month in a row for GM… in fact, the first half of the year was our best retail sales performance since 2008, driven by an outstanding second quarter.” We can only imagine the depths of FICO scores, terms of financing, and margin-crushing incentivization that dealers were subsidized into offering to sell this many ‘kevorkianesque rolling sarcophagus.” How did they do this? Government (+14%) and Rentals (+48%) – sound sustainable?

 

 

But what drove all this exuberance was not the average joe

Commercial fleet sales were up 48 percent, driven by strong pickup, van and small car sales. Government deliveries were up 14 percent thanks to strong car sales.

 

And incentives remain notably above industry average and rising…

Incentive spending as a percentage of ATP was 10.9 percent, up 0.2 points from a year ago, according to J.D. Power PIN estimates. The industry average for June was 9.7 percent, also up 0.2 points from a year ago.

*  *  *

We assume this proves that the old adage that “there is no bad publicity” is true… though in this case, it seems a bit far-fetched.




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Those ‘Up to 300’ Troops in Iraq Are Now About 750

Two weeks ago, Barack Obama
announced
that he was sending “up to 300” troops to Iraq. Now
The New York Times
reports
that the number has grown:

Did you miss me?Obama
administration officials said that about 200 more troops had been
sent to protect the American Embassy in Baghdad and the Baghdad
airport. The additional troops, who arrived on Sunday, will operate
helicopters and drones to “bolster airfield and route security,”
Rear Adm. John F. Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said in a
statement.

In addition to those forces, another 100 troops who the Pentagon
had previously said would be sent to Iraq are headed to Baghdad to
help with security and logistics. The moves will raise the total
number of American troops deployed to Iraq for security and
advisory missions to about 750.

As though to complete the bitter taste of 2003, the paper adds
that, as Iraq’s political parties prepare to choose new leaders,
one “prominently mentioned” candidate for prime minister is
Ahmed
Chalabi
.

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“As mechanisms to establish private trust become more efficient, government plays a smaller role,” Says David Brooks. By George, He Gets the Sharing Economy.

In December 2013, a delegation from the sharing-economy advocacy group, Peers, delivered a pro-Airbnb petition to NY State Senator Liz Krueger (D) |||(Credit: David Medeiros)David Brooks, he of New York Times
establishment thinking fame, takes a moment today
to marvel at the success of the sharing economy
as people and
companies build networks of trust and commerce using modern
tools.

I’m one of those people who thought Airbnb would never work. I
thought people would never rent out space in their homes to near
strangers. But I was clearly wrong. Eleven million travelers have
stayed in Airbnb destinations, according to data shared by the
company. Roughly 550,000 homes are now being shared by hosts.
Airbnb is more popular in Europe than it is even in the United
States. Paris is the largest destination city.

And Airbnb is only a piece of the peer-to-peer economy. People
are renting out their cars to people they don’t know, dropping off
their pets with people they don’t know, renting power tools to
people they don’t know.

He noodles a bit about the effects of middle-class stagnation,
and the innovative power set in motion now that “millions of people
have finished college with a hunger for travel and local contact,
but without much money.”

Eventually, even though he doesn’t use the term, he comes back
to spontaneous
order,
with people using the tools available to them within the
culture in which they live to create new structures and
connections.

And the big thing I underestimated was the transformation of
social trust. In primitive economies, people traded mostly with
members of their village and community. Trust was face to face.
Then, in the mass economy we’ve been used to, people bought from
large and stable corporate brands, whose behavior was made more
reliable by government regulation.

But now there is a new trust calculus, powered by both social
and economic forces. …

Companies like Airbnb establish trust through ratings
mechanisms. Their clients are already adept at evaluating each
other on the basis of each other’s Facebook pages. People in the
Airbnb economy don’t have the option of trusting each other on the
basis of institutional affiliations, so they do it on the basis of
online signaling and peer evaluations. Online ratings follow you
everywhere, so people have an incentive to act in ways that will
buff their online reputation.

Well, yes. People make new and interesting connections as the
world around them evolves. These connections aren’t centrally
planned or enforced from above—they evolve to meet people’s needs
(and fade away if they don’t).

Brooks notes that many of the new sharing economy companies are
making their peace with city governments and other local
authorities. But, so far, this has largely involved a hands-off
policy by officials who don’t know what to make of the
development.

most city governments don’t seem inclined to demand tight
regulations and oversight. Centralized agencies don’t know what to
make of decentralized trust networks. …

As mechanisms to establish private trust become more efficient,
government plays a smaller role.

Fancy that. Actually, Scottish philosopher Adam Ferguson did

fancy that, in 1767
.

Men, in general, are sufficiently disposed to occupy themselves
in forming projects and schemes: But he who would scheme and
project for others, will find an opponent in every person who is
disposed to scheme for himself. Like the winds that come we know
not whence, and blow whithersoever they list, the forms of society
are derived from an obscure and distant origin; they arise, long
before the date of philosophy, from the instincts, not from the
speculations of men. The crowd of mankind, are directed in their
establishments and measures, by the circumstances in which they are
placed; and seldom are turned from their way, to follow the plan of
any single projector.

Last month,
Jim Epstein suggested
that the “sharing economy” gave liberals
cover to do what people have always done: organize their affairs
without the dead hand of the state.

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Spain Celebrates The “End Of The Recession” With 54% Youth Unemployment, Highest Since January

When we were greeted by the latest batch of optimistic Spanish data this morning, such as the following:

we thought, we would see some actual “end of recession” signals when it came to the underlying economy, like for example: jobs actually being created. Alas no. According to the just released European employment data for May, total Spain unemployment remained unchanged in May at 25.1%, while youth unemployment has actually risen to 54.0% – the highest since January!

That’s ok though: aside from the facts, once is welcome to “believe” whatever headlines one wants to believe.

And speaking of “recovery”, here is what unemployment across Europe looked like as of May.

Source: Eurostat




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Sorry, TNR, But Coaxing Single Payer Victory Out of Hobby Lobby Defeat Doesn’t Work

The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn has an
interesting post
up arguing that the Supreme Court’s Hobby
Lobby ruling suggests that the way to deal with the constitutional
and ethical issues raised by Obamacare’s contraceptive mandate is
to implement —HobbyLobby this will come as a complete
surprise to H&R readers so wait for it — single payer!

He notes:

The fundamental problem here is the way the U.S. has decided to
provide its new entitlement to health insurance. In many
other countries, the government takes on this responsibility
directly, by creating its own insurance program or regulating
insurers as if they were public utilities…

Health care is full of decisions that raise complicated ethical
questions on which, inevitably, religious beliefs can dictate
certain views. It’s not just whether to use certain forms of
contraception. It’s also whether to use stem cell therapy, how to
treat the end of life, and whether to take blood transfusions. The
question is not whether the owners of closely owned corporation
have a right to their religious views. Of course they do. The
question is whether those views should affect the provision of a
public program, enacted in part to promote public health
as defined by public health professionals…

It’s worth remembering that, strictly speaking, the Obamacare
mandate doesn’t “force” employers to pay directly for coverage of
contraception or any other medical service. The law simply requires
that employers bear the burden of medical expenses, broadly
defined. They can do so by paying a fee to the government or, if
they choose, they can decide to provide insurance on their own. The
only caveat is that, if they decide they want to provide insurance,
the policies must conform to certain regulations—among them,
coverage of so-called essential benefits. And the federal
government, relying on the (very sound) judgment of public health
professionals, has decided that contraception belongs to that
list.

The obvious solution to this dilemma is to take health insurance
away from employers altogether… And, over the long run, it’s easy
enough to imagine a world in which employers were truly out of the
health insurance business altogether—a world in which all people
got health insurance directly from the government or tightly
regulated insurers.

(Emphasis added.)

A few thoughts.

One: By calling Obamacare a “new entitlement” and a “public
program” he has basically accepted that the program constitutes a
de facto government takeover of one-sixth of the economy, a
conclusion that liberals have generally resisted. Leftists, notes
Cato Institute’s Michael Cannon, have been trying to convince
Americans that Obamacare is not a step in the direction of
socialized medicine as opponents claim because it uses private
insurance and relies on market forces to deliver coverage. Cohn’s
candor is both refreshing and clarifying, so thanks, Jonathan, for
that.

Two: Cohn claims that Obamacare offers employers a choice to
provide contraceptive coverage: Either spring for employee
insurance that includes all the 20 FDA-approved contraceptives (as
opposed to only the 16 that were consistent with Hobby Lobby’s
religious tenets) or hand the money over to the government to
purchase such coverage.

This is bizarre because he is basically inviting even more
employers to dump their employees on to Obamacare’s exchanges,
turning President Obama’s promise that “anyone who likes their
current insurance can keep it” into even
more
of a lie.

Furthermore, the Religious Freedom Restoration Act says that the
government has to achieve its ends in a way that least burdens
religious rights. Cohn is saying because Obamacare gives employers
an option to offer contraceptive coverage or pay the government to
do so, it is, strictly speaking, not a mandate. OK. Call it a
regulation. Or a Buddhist chant. Or whatever. But would re-defining
the mandate as something else satisfy RFRA’s stipulation?

I don’t think so. The mandate, as Justice Alito noted in his
ruling, would have cost Hobby Lobby $475 million in fines.
 And what would Cohn’s regulatory option cost?  According
to Kaiser Health News, roughly $26 million in penalties. But this
does not include the health care tax exemption that Hobby Lobby
would lose — putting it at a considerable disadvantage vis-à-vis
its non-religious competitors.

To paraphrase Justice Alito, if this doesn’t burden religious
rights, then what does, especially when there is at least one less
intrusive way: Make oral contraceptives available over the counter,
as I previously argued
here
?

Three: Cohn contends that replacing Obamacare and its reliance
on employer-sponsored coverage toward a Medicare-style single-payer
system would avoid such knotty constitutional and ethical issues.
Perhaps.

But so would fixing our idiotic tax code and handing individuals
who pay out-of-pocket for coverage the same tax exemptions as their
employers. Individuals would be able to buy their own coverage with
their own money as per their own religious convictions without
forcing anyone to violate theirs. This still doesn’t preclude libs
from playing their brother’s keeper — as Cohn says we all should be
doing — and demanding generous subsidies for those for whom the tax
credits alone don’t get “acceptable” coverage.

But giving patients some modicum of control of their health care
dollars would also unleash market forces to lower soaring costs
without resorting to price controls or rationing (and the first one
who says
markets ration too
— just by price — will have to pay for my
nose job!) or
lopping off
five years from the life of cancer patients or
creating a giant Rube Goldberg contraption to manage all the
perverse incentives of single-payer.

I understand — though disagree — with the liberal end of
universal coverage. But what I’ve never understood is why they want
to employ the least efficient and most heavy-handed means that
violate the Constitution and erode freedoms to achieve it.

(For more on “repealing and replacing” Obamacare with a free
market system that contains tax parity for individuals, deals with
the pre-existing condition issue and other liberal objections, read
this excellent National Journal
piece
by Jim Capretta and Robert Moffit.)

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