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Month: August 2014
Chinese Developers “Destocking” Desperation: Bikini-Clad Model Car Washes, iPhones, & Alibaba Discounts
We have presented numerous examples of the turmoil under the surface of China’s unprecedentedly placid GDP headlines but, as The FT reports, the desperation of property developers should be the biggest canary in the coalmine that all is not well. Developers began cutting prices this year but have so far failed to revive flagging volumes and so are increasingly resorting to creative sales tactics to drum up interest. From discounts on Alibaba purchases up to $325,000 to car-washes by bikini-clad models, as “putting full effort into destocking has become the common choice of most developers. They’re still not optimistic about the market situation.” So why are US investors so upbeat about China’s ‘recovery’?
As The FT reports, things are not well in the China real-estate market…
Residential property sales fell 9.4 per cent in floorspace terms in the first seven months of the year compared with the same period in 2013, according to government statistics.
Developers began cutting prices this year but have so far failed to revive flagging volumes. More than 30 cities have also removed purchase restrictions introduced in 2010 to restrain price growth amid public anger over high prices.
And developers are desperate…
Scary China real estate data point #527 in an unending series: sales volume in top 30 cities down 31% YoY in July http://ift.tt/1AV3NQJ
— Tom Orlik (@TomOrlik) August 25, 2014
Developers are increasingly resorting to creative sales tactics to drum up interest.
In the latest sign of Chinese developers’ desperation to unload inventory into a weak property market, China Vanke Co is offering discounts of up to $325,000 to homebuyers who shop on Alibaba’s Taobao, an e-commerce platform.
The country’s biggest developer will give discounts that match shoppers’ spending of up to Rmb2m ($325,000) on the eBay-like service. Homes in real estate developments in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chongqing, among other cities, will qualify, according to an advertisement on Taobao’s website.
…
An office tower in Henan province offered car washes by bikini-clad models to people who referred a friend to the building’s account on WeChat
A residential developer in Wuhuan offered new iPhone 6s to potential buyers who showed up at the sales office.
Not exactly signs of optimism…
“Putting full effort into destocking has become the common choice of most developers. They’re still not optimistic about the market situation,”
The inventory build-up may get worse before it gets better. Several developers noted in their recent half-year reports that September and November will be a peak period for new housing completions. That will add to the supply overhang and increase pressure on developers to cut prices.
* * *
But apart from that… China’s PMIs say everything’s great, right?
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30Y Treasury Yield Plunges To Fresh 15-Month Lows
More Unpleasant Surprises Ahead for Obamacare
Obamacare is going to be an unexpected headache
for some people when tax time rolls around next year.
As the Associated Press
reported this week, income changes over the course of the year
could end up chewing into tax refunds without much warning for
people receiving subsidized coverage under the law:
If your income for 2014 is going to be higher than you estimated
when you applied for health insurance, then complex connections
between the health law and taxes can reduce or even eliminate your
tax refund next year….The danger is that as your income grows, you
don’t qualify for as much of a tax credit. Any difference will come
out of your tax refund, unless you have promptly reported the
changes.Nearly 7 million households have gotten health insurance tax
credits, and major tax preparation companies say most of those
consumers appear to be unaware of the risk.
Insurance subsidies under the law are a form of tax credit, and
the amount someone qualifies for is based on his or her expected
income. But when that income doesn’t meet expectations, then people
have essentially two choices: Report the difference as it happens
and immediately pay a higher premium as a result, or wait until tax
time and sort it out via the refund.
This year’s open enrollment period is going to bring other
complications as well, thanks to the administration’s automatic
renewal policy. The problem, again, is with the treatment of income
expectations and subsidy amounts. As an AP report from July
explained:
Insurance exchange customers who opt for convenience by
automatically renewing their coverage for 2015 are likely to
receive dated and inaccurate financial aid amounts from the
government, say industry officials, advocates and other
experts.If those amounts are too low, consumers could get sticker shock
over their new premiums. Too high, and they’ll owe the tax man
later.Automatic renewal was supposed to make the next open-enrollment
under President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul smooth for
consumers.But unless the administration changes its 2015 approach,
“they’re setting people up for large and avoidable premium
increases,” said researcher Caroline Pearson, who follows the
health law for the market analysis firm Avalere Health.
For a lot of people, then, automatic renewal will result in a
sort of stealth premium hike. That’s what larger insurers are
hoping for, anyway. As The Wall Street Journal
noted last month, some of the bigger players in Obamacare’s
exchanges underpriced their plans in the first year in order to
gain more customers—with the expectation of raising rates in later
years. Auto-renewal makes that process easier, and at the same time
makes it harder for smaller players to attract new customers.
The bigger picture here is that the frustrations people have
with the law now aren’t likely to end. You have an exceedingly
complex law that wasn’t explained very well and that a lot of
people don’t really understand, and that’s going to result in some
unpleasant surprises for a while.
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Another Mom Behind Bars for Letting Kids Wait in Air-Conditioned Car
Ready to be outraged? Read this headline from
WKYT in Kentucky: ” Lexington woman accused of leaving kids in
running car.”
The gall!
A Lexington woman is behind bars after police say she left
two children in a running car outside the Fayette County Detention
Center.Police arrested Brandy Becksted outside the detention
center Tuesday afternoon.She said she didn’t want to wake up the two and four-year-old
children in her car, so she left them inside while she entered the
facility to put money into an inmate’s account.
This woman kept her kids cool while she ran a short errand, and
that’s a crime? Should she have kept the windows rolled up with the
engine off and no air? Should she have dragged
them across the parking lot, which puts kids
in greater danger than just leaving them in the car?
Might as well lock up
the whole family and leave these children
parentless. Certainly any mom who doesn’t parent exactly the
way the cops want is in need of some hard time. And she’s in
luck—because thanks to absurd laws, these are indeed hard times to
be a parent.
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CBO Thinks Millions Of Americans Aren’t Going To Sign Up For Obamacare
Submitted by Robert Murphy via Mises Canada,
In June the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) updated its forecasts regarding the “individual mandate” component of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as “ObamaCare.” Recall that the individual mandate is the tax levied on Americans who commit the outrage of refraining from buying health insurance. You can click the link for the full list of the (ascending) fine structure, and the list of exemptions. But in this post I want to draw your attention to a shocking table from the CBO report:
Let’s walk through some of these numbers, all of which refer to CBO’s estimates for Calendar Year 2016. (The penalties would actually be assessed in 2017 when these people pay their CY 2016 taxes.) First of all, the “3.9″ at the bottom of the first numerical column says that 3.9 million people will actually pay the relevant penalty to the government. (Earlier in the document CBO explains that some people will not have health insurance, and will not be eligible for an exemption, but may simply evade their legally owed tax payment.)
Keep in mind that this figure includes dependents on behalf of whom others might actually make the payment. For example, if a family of 4 decides to forego health insurance altogether and does not qualify for the poverty exemption, then the person filing income taxes for the family has to pay the penalties because of everybody. But that family would show up as 4 people in the 3.9 million total, not 1 person.
However, one of the notes under the table (not shown above) explains: “Individual penalty payments are classified by the income of the tax-filing unit.” So in our example, if the head of household earns $100,000, while the 5-year-old twins earn $0, then–my understanding is–each of the 4 going into the total calculation would be classified as having an income of $100,000 for the purposes of the above table.
Finally, note that the poverty level is defined in this way: “In 2016, the federal poverty guidelines (commonly referred to as the federal poverty level) are projected to equal about $12,150 for a single person and about $24,750 for a family of four.”
Now that we have an idea of what the table shows, here are some fun facts:
==> In total, the government expects to collect $4.2 billion in one year from individuals because they don’t have health insurance.
==> 1 million people who earn less than twice the poverty level will be fined for not having health insurance in 2016.
==> This group of people–earning less than twice the poverty level–accounts for 25% of those who will be fined.
==> The government will extract $500 million in penalties from this group. These people are too poor to buy health insurance, remember.
==> Drilling down further, 200,000 people will be fined who earn less than the poverty level. These 200,000 people whom the government says are living below the poverty level will be forced to pay the IRS a total of $100 million in fines just for 2016. They also will not have health insurance, remember.
What is not shown in the above table–though the report itself explains–is that the total number of nonelderly uninsured Americans projected for calendar 2016 is some 30 million. This figure includes illegal immigrants and people who are exempt for various reasons from the mandate.
Isn’t it interesting that the “universal coverage” provided by the “Affordable Care Act” will still yield–according to the government’s own projections–almost 4 million Americans who will prefer to pay an average tax of more than $1,000 to the government for 2016, rather than buying health insurance that year?
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Seven Dirty Philly Cops Could Cost City Millions, Six Suspended But Not Yet Fired
For his faults, Philadelphia’s
police commissioner, Charles Ramsey, has not avoided trying to
firing and trying to fire problem cops. The problem is even though
he’s nominally in charge of the Philadelphia Police Department he
doesn’t have final say on employment decisions. Thus last week
Ramsey lamented that he could not rid his force of
Thomas Tolstoy, an alleged sexual predator, because neither a
federal nor local investigation produced a prosecution. “The
odds are,” said Ramsey, “I’m stuck with a guy who shouldn’t be a
cop.” The statute of limitations on the allegations against Tolstoy
expire later this year and he’s likely to return to the streets of
Philly as a cop—he’s been drawing a paycheck without interruption
despite three separate women accusing him of similar sexual
assaults, including at least one who ended up in a hospital. Last
summer a cop Ramsey fired after he was caught on tape punching a
woman for no reason
got his job back thanks to an arbitration hearing.
Nevertheless, since 2008 Philadelphia
has fired 146 police officers, 88 of whom were arrested, and 48
who have been convicted so far, on charges like murder, rape, and
extortion.
Then there’s the group of Philadelphia cops from a now defunct
anti-narcotics group. Their misconduct has already forced the
district attorney to
throw away hundreds of drug-related cases because of tainted
testimony. And they could cost city taxpayers millions due to
lawsuits.
Philly.com reports:
Seven Philadelphia police narcotics officers at the center of a
federal corruption probe are also named in scores of civil lawsuits
that add more claims of thievery, intimidation and brutality to
those described in their criminal indictments, according to court
records.The potential financial impact of these suits, along with any
others that may be filed, could expose the City of Philadelphia to
millions of dollars in damages or settlements.
The Philadelphia Police Department’s inability to respond
effectively to misconduct, in large part due to the strength of the
Fraternal Order of Police, has now exposed it to potentially
millions of dollars in liability for the actions of officers whose
jobs were treated as rights. Only one of the seven officers is no
longer with the department—he plead guilty to charges of corruption
and turned state’s evidence. The other six were “suspended
with intent to dismiss.” Ramsey can’t just fire an officer,
even if that officer his colleagues are under federal investigation
for serious crimes. It’s a similar situation for Tolstoy. If the
alleged sexual predator acts again and victimizes another woman,
can the city claim it’s not liable? It won’t be as easy for them to
get out of as it is for unions, which are rarely held liable for
actions that keep problem cops on the street.
The idea that “due process” should apply to the employment
status of government agents authorized to use violence against us
is horrific.
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DARE Spits Venom over L.A. Schools Not Throwing Book at Kids with Pot
We’ve previously noted that the
Los Angeles Unified School District is trying to get students back
into the seats of their schools by the tried-and-true method of
not tossing them out in the first place and having them
arrested or cited by police for misbehavior and trying to scale
back on some outrageous “zero tolerance” responses.
The school district recently announced it was expanding its
discipline changes and will refer kids who are caught for minor
crimes to be
referred to counseling and discipline rather than arrest or
citations. The offenses that will be treated this way include
fighting, alcohol and tobacco possession, and low level petty theft
or vandalism. Oh, and also, possession of small amounts of
marijuana will no longer result in student arrest.
That news perked up the ears of the “Toke of the Town” blog at
LA Weekly, who
got in touch with Steve Abercrombie, California coordinator of
Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE). He was not pleased:
“Wow,” he tells Toke of the Town. “It seems we keep giving in
more and more to different crimes and criminal activity. When does
it stop? When do you finally say that you need to follow the
rules?”
As typical, we can ponder the circular logic of the drug war
argument. “We have declared this behavior to be illegal. If we
allow kids to do it, they’ll be breaking ‘the rules’ that we have
declared. Therefore they are criminals,” without ever questioning
whether or not the designation that the behavior is illegal was a
problem in the first place.
But then, DARE’s placement in the drug war has been dependent on
reinforcing the need for a police presence in school systems. And
schools have
been cutting DARE costs out of their budgets. So Abercrombie’s
complaining is coming from a place of decreasing influence on
school funds, not just education. He adds, “I’m surprised they
don’t hand [cannabis] out when they hand out their workbooks.”
That might be a good way to fight truancy. They should think
about it.
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NATO Canada Has A Message For Russian Soldiers
Canadian Dollar Surges Most In 2 Years As “Tax Inversion” Euphoria Hits FX
It appears the Tim Horton’s / Burger-King deal has sparked a serious surge in Canadian Dollar demand.
CAD is up almost 1% today – its best daily gain since June 2012 – pushing to its highest in a month. We suspect the momentum of the initial “tax inversion” flow merely triggered stops and broke key technical levels (200-day moving average) to extend the move as it seems the ‘Canada as an offshore tax-haven meme’ is a bit of reach…
200-day moving average is 1.0885…
Charts: Bloomberg
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