Neighbor Narcs on Florida Boy’s Lemonade Stand

lemonade“It’s all about profit.”

That’s T.J. Guerrero, a 12-year-old who sells strawberry
lemonade and cookies on the corner of Patricia Avenue and San
Salvador Drive in Dunedin, Florida, from 3 to 7 p.m. most days. He
scoped out the corner after trying several other locations—market
research is important for any entrepreneur—and got permission from
a neighbor to sell on his front lawn. Other neighbors have even
offered their driveways for customer parking. He sees from 10 to 30
customers a day, and charges $1 a cup.

But none of this diligence impresses 61-year-old Doug Wilkey,
who lives on the corner and thinks the boy is a nuisance worthy of
government intervention.
The Tampa Bay Times reports
:

According to Dunedin records, Wilkey contacted city
commissioners in May 2013 and followed up in October, then again in
March and June this year….

“The city could possibly face repercussion in the event someone
became ill from spoiled/contaminated food or drink sales,” Wilkey
wrote in one email.

“If this were a once a year event by a couple kids to earn a
little money for a holiday or something, I would not have a problem
with it,” he said in another. “I am very worried about the value of
my home, which is why I built in a residential area, not a business
area.”

An increasingly frustrated Wilkey, who declined to speak with
the Tampa Bay Times, wrote this summer that the stand
was back “AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!”

A Pinellas County sheriff’s community police officer has been
out at least twice in an attempt to defuse the conflict.

Wilkey says Guerrero’s friends hang out near his stand and make
noise. He has also complained about trash. I haven’t had the chance
to hit up the stand and see for myself—though local Reason
readers should go grab a glass—but those sure sound like complaints
that would be better dealt with man-to-boy, rather than
man-to-Leviathan-to-boy.

Three cheers for the local Florida authorities, though.
Sheriff’s deputies have declined to shut the boy down, unlike their
brethren in
Madison County, Illinois
;
Portland, Oregon
;
Toronto, Canada
;
Holland, Michigan
; and Washington,
D.C.
   

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Ferguson, Police Reform, ISIL, Ukraine, and Drug Cartels in Mexico

Archive photo of family gathered around the radioI was on Jack Thompson’s Political Badger for a half-hour
interview that covered events of the last few weeks in Ferguson,
Missouri,
police reform
, the role of
too many laws
in police violence, as well as foreign policy and
national security issues, reviewing the growth of the Islamic State in Iraq and the
Levant
(ISIL), Russian aggression in Ukraine, and what constitutes
a threat to national
security
.

You can listen to the whole thing
here
.

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The New Misery Index

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The Status Quo is desperate to mask the declining fortunes of those who earn income from work, and the Misery Index 2.0 strips away the phony facade of bogus unemployment and inflation numbers.
 

The classic Misery Index is the sum of unemployment and inflation, though later variations have added interest rates and the relative shortfall or surplus of GDP growth.
 
Since the Status Quo figured out how to game unemployment and inflation to the point that these metrics are meaningless except as a meta-measure of centralized perception management, the Misery Index has lost its meaning as well.
 

I propose a Misery Index 2.0 of four less easily manipulated (and therefore more meaningful) metrics:

1. The participation rate: the percentage of the working-age population with a job
 
2. Real (adjusted for inflation) median household income: an imperfect but still useful measure of purchasing power
 
3. Labor share of the non-farm economy: how much of the national income is going to wage-earners
 
4. Money velocity: a basic measure of economic vitality
 
The foundation of Misery Index 2.0 is jobs, earned income and the purchasing power of earnings.Inflation is easily gamed by underweighting big-ticket expenses and offsetting increasing costs with hedonic adjustments, and unemployment is easily gamed by shifting people from the work-force to not in the workforce. This category of zombies–not counted in measures of unemployment–has skyrocketed:
 
The participation rate is the more telling metric: if fewer people of working age have jobs, the claim that the Main Street economy is "doing better" rings false.
 
Even though the rate of inflation is heavily gamed, real median household income is the best available gauge of purchasing power. Purchasing power simply means how many goods and services will your income buy?
 
For example: if your daily salary buys 20 gallons of gasoline, and a year from now you get a raise but your daily pay only buys 15 gallons of gasoline, the purchasing power of your earnings fell despite the higher nominal salary.
 
Real median household income has declined, meaning the purchasing power of earnings fell.
 
This chart also shows labor's share of the non-farm economy: that broad measure of earned income (as opposed to corporate profits, unearned income and rentier income) relfects a steady decline in labor's share of the national income.
 
Once again, claims that the Main Street economy is "doing better" make no sense if labor's share of the national income is declining.
 
An economy in rude good health has a high velocity of money. An economy bedeviled with high taxes, rentier skims, cartels, politically untouchable fiefdoms, quasi-monopolies and free money for financiers provided by the central bank has a declining velocity of money.
You can fake unemployment and inflation, but it's harder to paper over the weakness reflected in money velocity:
 
Central-planning always leads to ginned-up phony statistics, because centrally planned economies always stagnate due to corruption, malinvestments, and some are more equal than others skims and scams by insiders, cronies, cadres and apparatchiks.
 

The Status Quo is desperate to mask the declining fortunes of those who earn income from work, and the Misery Index 2.0 strips away the phony facade of bogus unemployment and inflation numbers.

 




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12 Words Of Wisdom From Art Cashin For This Week

The avuncular Art Cashin, UBS’ venerable man on the floor of the NYSE has seen it all… and is not impressed by the lack of volume. On what he notes is historically a very light trading week with a mild upward bias – note, the 1929 high was made the day after Labor Day – Cashin has 12 simple words for the exuberant trader this week…

“Thin markets can be tricky..stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.”

Trade accordingly.




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Over $455,000 Seized from Medical Marijuana Patient Slapped with Civil Asset Forfeiture

“Over $455,000 Seized from Medical Marijuana Patient Slapped
with Civil Asset Forfeiture” is the latest video from Reason TV.
Watch above or click on the link below for video, full text,
supporting links, downloadable versions, and more Reason TV
clips.

View this article.

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Ukraine Says Tanks Crossing Border as New Front Opens, Braces for More ‘Aid’

The
Ukrainian government today claims that Russia has “violated the
state border of Ukraine” by sending tanks across the border this
morning.

“At least 10 tanks, two armored vehicles and two trucks from
russia crossed into Ukrainian territory at 5:20 a.m. Monday,
potentially bound for the key port city of Mariupol on the Sea of
Azov. The highway leading to Mariupol is currently under control of
the Ukrainian military,” The Washington Post
reports
, based on information from Ukraine’s military
spokesman.

Reuters
notes
, “Earlier, a separate military statement said border
guards had halted the armored column outside Novoazovsk, Ukraine’s
most south-easterly point on the Azov Sea, and local residents,
reached by phone, spoke of seeing tanks and other armored vehicles
moving near the town.”

“The new military thrust by the rebels… appeared to open up a
new southern front in the five-month-old conflict that has claimed
at least 2,000
lives
 and force tens of thousands to flee their homes,”

explains
Al Jazeera.

Tensions flared on Friday when 200 or so
half-empty
“humanitarian aid” trucks from Russia entered
Ukraine
without approval
or inspection by Kiev or the Red Cross. The
convoy
allegedly
stole Ukrainian military equipment on the way out.
The Obama administration, NATO, and the E.U.
condemned
Russia’s border violation, but the Kremlin’s foreign
minister today announced that he plans on
sending in another aid convoy “in the next few days”

NATO claims
that it has “seen transfers of large quantities of advanced
weapons, including tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and
artillery to separatist groups in eastern Ukraine. Moreover, NATO
is observing an alarming build-up of Russian ground and air forces
in the vicinity of Ukraine.”

The Associated Press
reported
yesterday that Russian-backed insurgents were parading
captive Ukrainian soldiers in “tattered” uniforms through the
streets of Donetsk, one of the cities still held by the
insurgents.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was in Ukraine yesterday to
celebrate the twenty-third anniversary of its independence. She
committeed 500 million euros to rebuilding the wartorn east and

condemned
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “violation to the
territorial integrity of Europe.”

Tomorrow, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russia’s
Vladimir Putin will meet in Minsk, Belarus to discuss the war. A
member of the Moscow-based Center for Political Technologies

suggests
that “the Kremlin’s moves to boost the rebels’
position … while seeming to contradict Russia’s stated desire to
reach a deal, are aimed at entering the talks from a position of
strength.”

Read more Reason coverage of Ukraine here

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Dallas Fed Plunges, Biggest Miss In 16 Months As New Orders Collapse

With Philly Fed surging to record highs (along with stocks) but Services PMI dropping “as the recovery fades,” it was left to Dallas Fed to split the buy good news or buy bad news dilemma this morning. It was bad news – from 2012 highs, Dallas Fed plunged to 7.1 (against 12.7 expectations) for the biggest miss in 16 months. Production fell, capital expenditure and employment subindices all fell and New Orders collapsed at the fastest rate since April 2013. Even hope faded as the outlook index dropped.

 




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Here We Go Again: Ukraine Claims It Destroyed Two Tanks That Entered From Russia

It’s Monday; which means its time to ramp up the war rhetoric once again as another weekend goes by without ‘escalation’. Ukraine’s military spokesman Lysenko, or as he is better known as Lie-senko for those who actually ask for some evidence of anything that he claims, says, suggests or otherwise talks about, is reporting,via Bloomberg, that:

  • UKRAINE SAYS TWO TANKS THAT ENTERED FROM RUSSIA WERE DESTROYED
  • LYSENKO SAYS UKRAINE CAPTURED CREW MEMBERS OF DESTROYED TANKS
  • UKRAINE SEIZED SOME VEHICLES THAT ENTERED FROM RUSSIA: LYSENKO
  • LYSENKO SAYS COLUMN OF REBEL VEHICLES DESTROYED IN KRASNODON
  • LYSENKO: UKRAINE INFLICTED SEVERE LOSSES ON REBELS IN KRASNODON

One wonders if the captured Russian crew had Langley, VA crew cuts? Unfortunately no one had their iPhone or camera-on-a-sticks to record the action as “proof.” but we are sure that won’t matter. Cure NATO’s comments.  Now, how will the market react to this ‘proven invasion’? Actually scratch that: more escalation is simply a catalyst for even more pent-up de-escalation in the future…




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New Home Sales Drop To Lowest Since March As Northeast Craters; Biggest Supply Since October 2011

Following last week’s housing starts data, everyone was expecting a new home sales number that was even better than the consensus 430K. Instead, the July print of 412K was not only the 5th miss in the last 6 prints, but also the lowest number since March’s 403K. The biggest drop took place in the Northeast where the sequential plunge was some 31% to just 18K new houses, and a whopping 44% from a year ago. There were declines in the Midwest which dropped 8.8% and in the West, which dropped 15.2%, while the only increase was recorded in the South which rose 8.1%. In fact, of all regions, only the South posted an increase from July 2013, surging by 33%, with new home sales in all other regions dropping.

 

Other notable data: the median home price dropped by 3.7%, the biggest drop since May 2013, and down to February 2014 levels:

 

Finally, and perhaps most troubling, the months supply of new homes rose to 6.0, the highest since September 2011, as a result of 121K homes under construction the most in years, while 37K new homes have not even been started: also the highest number in years as builders seem to have frontrun the “recovery” once again. All this suggests that there has been an inflection point in the supply which can not be absorbed by the market, which also means median prices are likely to drop in the coming months.

 

All in all, just the right mix of bad news to send the S&P 500 to 2,000.




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S&P 2,000 On Lack Of BTFATH Slack

Mission Accomplished… Retirement for all. A year ahead of Goldman’s schedule, and with Treasury yields plumbing multi-month lows, US equities are opening this morning at new record-er highs as the S&P crosses the ‘awesome’ 2,000 Maginot Line for the first time (despite Yellen’s hawkishness and Kuroda’s playing down moar QQE leaving Draghi left to save the world). Can you feel the wealth effect surging through your income streams?

“wealth effect”

 

Perfectly normal…

 

and then there’s this…

 

As an aside, stocks are now on pace for the best August in at least a decade…




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