The Self-Serving Apologists For Student Debt-Serfdom

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Mankiw's claim that college costs are the inevitable result of Baumol's Disease is pure self-serving rubbish.

Everyone who isn't blinded by self-interest sees that the cost of higher education in America–and the way we pay for it, by turning students into debt-serfs– is unsustainable. Those benefiting richly from the bloated, ineffective bureaucracy see no alternative, of course; their self-serving handwringing would be laughable if it wasn't so destructive to the nation and the economy.

Greg Mankiw, professor at Harvard, recently offered up a typical helping of self-serving handwringing: Three Reasons for Those Hefty College Tuition Bills. Mankiw squeezes out a few insincere (but necessary for PR purposes) alligator tears over the soaring costs of a college degree, and then trots out the usual justifications for maintaining the status quo, which just so happens to reward him so well.

Let's dismantle his bogus justifications one by one.

1. Mankiw predictably trots out the Gold Standard of justifying the absurdly high cost of an often-ineffective and useless college degree: those with college degrees earn $1.5 million more over a lifetime of work than those without degrees.

On the face of it, this offers plenty of justification for $120,000 piles of debt for degrees in Critical Studies, etc.: that extra $1.5 million will easily fund the cost of a 4-year degree.

But this data is completely out of date. Yes, a college degree offered substantial lifetime wage increases back when four years of college cost about as much as a new car, not a new house, i.e. the current cost; but as recent graduates have discovered, a four-year college degree offers little advantage, and substantially underperforms journey-person wages for skilled trades workers such as pipefitters, plumbers, etc.

The exception is of course highly technical degrees in engineering, computer science, biotechnology, etc. But this reality has led to a systemic over-supply of graduates with STEM degrees (science, technology, engineering, math), as the economy does not create paid positions in these fields simply because more people have studied these subjects.

As I often note here (and in my book that proposes a much cheaper and more effective system of higher education, The Nearly Free University and the Emerging Economy: The Revolution in Higher Education), employers can only hire employees if the business will earn a profit from their labor–and opportunities to earn a profit in STEM fields are not as abundant as boosters of the status quo claim.

The economy has changed profoundly and structurally in the past 15 years, and the breezy cliche that a college degree automatically boosts lifetime earnings by $1.5 million is no longer supported by current realities. Just having a college diploma offers little advantage, especially when compared to those with real-world skills. Even those with STEM degrees find themselves in a Darwinian struggle to get a job in these fields, a struggle that forces many to get deeper in debt to secure a Masters or PhD.

But alas, tens of thousands of other under-employed college graduates had the same idea, and the job market is over-supplied with graduates holding Masters and PhDs.

Yes, if a student slaves away for 7 years to secure a PhD in computer security, he/she will likely enjoy multiple job offers. But the number of such positions is vanishingly small in an economy of 140+ million workers.

The reality is a college degree no longer offers the leverage it once did, due to simple supply and demand: millions of other people have degrees now, too, including advanced degrees, and the job market doesn't create jobs just because people have degrees.

2. Next, Mankiw claims (with zero factual justification) that teachers enlightening a small groups of students in a classroom (i.e. the standard educrat model that pays Mankiw his fat salary and hefty benefits) is the best and thus the only way to teach.

In other words: garsh, I'm sorry costs are soaring (phony handwringing), but this is the way it has to be; there is no alternative (TINA). This is self-serving rubbish: the better and much more cost-effective way to teach real skills that employers actually need is directed apprenticeships taught by working professionals, accompanied by nearly free digital resources and courses.

I describe this model in detail in my book The Nearly Free University and the Emerging Economy. Not only does this model offer an order of magnitude reduction in cost (there is no longer any need for a costly campus or hundreds of highly paid administrative staff), it also teaches students real skills in the emerging (i.e. real) economy.

Yes, there will still be a need for the top 200 research universities, but these institutions offer little to nothing to the vast majority of undergraduates who are currently entering debt-serfdom for ineffective or even useless 4-year degrees.

3. Mankiw then invokes every entrenched special interest's favorite high-concept defense for their morbidly high-cost/ineffective bureaucracy: Baumol's Disease, which holds that the cost of violin lessons rises because as the productivity of manufacturing and commoditized services rises, alas, teaching violin is a one-on-one process that is necessarily unchanged from 1741.

Mankiw conveniently overlooks the sordid reality that the academic establishment that rewards him and his fellow smug handwringers so amply depends on an underpaid army of academic ronin, teachers with few benefits and zero security known in the polite self-serving circles of academia as adjunct professors.

Please consider this chart of the University of California system's employment of professors and administration. If we extrapolate the lines into the present, it appears that there are far more highly-compensated seat-warmers in the university administration than there are professors teaching in the classrooms.

In 13 short years, the number of senior administrators shot up by 142% while the number of tenure track professors rose by 29%.

The shortfall in classroom staff has been filled by adjunct professors, educrat doublespeak for poorly paid academic ronin, academics with Masters Degrees and Doctorates who have few realistic chances to secure a tenured teaching position. These academic ronin are typically paid $40,000 or less and receive few if any benefits and no security. Their total compensation (wage/salary plus benefits) is a third or even a quarter of what tenured professors receive.

Their career track has little future; they may be able to switch universities, just as Samurai ronin in Japan might attach themselves to a feudal lord for a time, but their employment will always be contingent and short-term.

Mankiw's claim that college costs are the inevitable result of Baumol's Disease is pure self-serving rubbish: Mankiw's grandiose position atop the academic heap is supported by the toil of a vast army of poorly paid academic ronin, while soaring costs can largely be attributed to entirely useless (in terms of actual learning of useful skills and knowledge) administration and lavish campus facilities–costs that have nothing to do with Baumol's Disease and everything to do with American higher education being a cartel, i.e. an exploitive, parasitic racket that fails most of its students miserably.

The emerging economy enables a 90% reduction in the costs of higher education and a highly adaptive structure of directed apprenticeships in every academic field. The way to learn how to do anything, from journalism to multimedia to pipefitting to philosophy is to start right in under the guidance of a working professional in the field: as Emerson noted, do the thing and you shall have the power.

If we want a vibrant, adaptive, resilient economy, we need to ditch Mankiw and his entire parasitic cartel for a higher education system that actually serves the economy and the nation, rather than an entrenched cabal of self-serving insiders.


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Swiss Franc Plunges To One-Year Lows Amid SNB Intervention Chatter

With the biggest drop in 3 months, EURCHF has broken above last September’s highs, plunging below 1.06. Amid chatter of SNB intervention, this is the weakest Swissy has been since the removakl of the ceiling a year ago.

EURCHF reached  1.10592…

 

The weakest since the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly removed its 1.20 vs EUR ceiling on Jan. 15, 2015


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Active Shooter Reported At San Diego Naval Medical Center

An active shooter has been reported at the Nval Medical Center in San Diego. 

Occupants are advised to “run, hide, or fight” according to a Facebook post for the NMCSD.

“San Diego police spokesman Officer Travis Easter said police had received a report of a shooter from officials at the medical center, but that they had not requested any assistance and so no officer had been sent to the scene,” Reuters reports. According to NBC, “at around 8:30 a.m., two California Highway Patrol officers were seen entering the facility through an emergency room entrance near Florida Drive [while] a steady stream of other patrol cars from multiple agencies could then be seen flowing into the area surrounding the military hospital.”

SWAT arrived at 8:45 a.m., local time.

Devleoping story

 


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Obama Bans Solitary Confinement for Juveniles; Supreme Court Expands Parole for Juveniles Serving Life

President Obama and the Supreme Court tookI gotta say, it was a good day. two very significant steps forward in the realm of criminal justice reform yesterday.

In a Washington Post op-ed, the president announced a ban on the use of solitary confinement for juveniles in federal prisons, while the Supreme Court released its ruling in the case of Montgomery v. Louisiana, a 6-3 decision making the court’s 2012 ruling in Miller v. Alabama (which ended the practice of sentencing juveniles to mandatory life sentences) retroactively effective. This means thousands of people convicted of murder before the age of 18 may have a chance of parole at some point during their sentence.

Laying out his reasoning for a federal ban on the use of solitary confinement for children, President Obama wrote:

Research suggests that solitary confinement has the potential to lead to devastating, lasting psychological consequences. It has been linked to depression, alienation, withdrawal, a reduced ability to interact with others and the potential for violent behavior. Some studies indicate that it can worsen existing mental illnesses and even trigger new ones. Prisoners in solitary are more likely to commit suicide, especially juveniles and people with mental illnesses.

The United States is a nation of second chances, but the experience of solitary confinement too often undercuts that second chance. Those who do make it out often have trouble holding down jobs, reuniting with family and becoming productive members of society. Imagine having served your time and then being unable to hand change over to a customer or look your wife in the eye or hug your children.

Writing for the Associated PressKathleen Hennessy explains how Obama came to his decision:

Obama asked the Justice Department to review the use of solitary confinement last summer, as part of the administration’s increased focus on the criminal justice system. Activists have been pushing for changes to the prison system. 

The department review yielded a series of recommendations and 50 “guiding principles,” which officials said would aim to ensure solitary confinement was an increasingly rare punishment used as an option of last resort when inmates posed a danger to staff, other inmates or themselves. 

The changes would also expand treatment for the mentally ill and ensure that inmates in solitary can spend more time outside their cells.

Obama said the reforms would affect roughly 10,000 inmates in the federal system. Roughly 100,000 people are in solitary confinement in the U.S., he said, adding that he hoped the changes would serve as a model for reforms at the state level.

Also in the Washington Post, Juliet Eilperin notes the growing push to limit the use of solitary at the state level. 

At least a dozen states have taken steps in the past two years to curtail the use of solitary confinement, either in response to lawsuits or through legislative and administrative changes. An increasing number of studies show a connection between isolating prisoners and higher rates of recidivism.

In recent weeks, Illinois and Oregon, in response to lawsuits, have announced they will exclude seriously mentally ill inmates from solitary confinement, and last month New York state reached a five-year, $62 million settlement with the New York Civil Liberties Union in which it pledged to significantly cut the number of prisoners in solitary as well as the maximum time they could stay there. California reached a settlement in September, pledging to overhaul the way it treats almost 3,000 inmates who are frequently kept alone for more than 22 hours a day in their cells.

Moving from the executive to the judicial branch, the Supreme Court’s decision gives new hope to what could be as many as 2,300 people serving sentences of life without parole, including Taurus Buchanan, who has been serving a life sentence in Louisiana for more than 21 years for killing another child with a single punch at the age of 16.

Reason TV’s Todd Krainin reported on children in solitary confinement in 2013. Watch his powerful doc below.

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“The Risk Of An Earnings Recession” And Six Other Reasons Why JPM Just Cut Its S&P Target To 2000

The onslaught from JPMorgan continues, which in the aftermath of first Marko Kolanovic’s periodic threats about sudden market crashes, and Mislav Matejka’s recurring warnings that BTFD is dead and “not to overstay your welcome in the bounce“, earlier today JPM’s chief equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas has officially cut his 2016 year-end S&P500 earnings forecast to $120 from $123 “on stronger US Dollar and lower economic growth forecast” as well as trimming his year end S&500 target from 2,200 to 2,000.

Here are the seven reasons why JPM continues to push the bear case:

The risk-reward for equities is deteriorating. There is increasing risk that elevated volatility starts incurring enough technical damage to market psychology and spills over, negatively impacting investor, consumer and business sentiment, resulting in a lack of risk taking, and eventually creating a negative feedback loop into the real economy. Going forward we see equity risk remaining asymmetric to the downside given:

  1. rising risk of US earnings recession,
  2. diverging central bank policies and a Fed that is trying to tighten causing USD to strengthen,
  3. US manufacturing sector already in recession territory and non-manufacturing sector continuing to decelerate,
  4. deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop with China posing a significant risk to global markets,
  5. credit spreads widening and high yield approaching recession levels,
  6. late cycle dynamics,
  7. continued elevated volatility likely to impact sentiment—VIX has been averaging ~20 for the last 6 months.

As Dubravko summarizes, “this all makes for an unattractive equity backdrop.” Furthermore, just like his peers, the third croat notes that there may be a short-term rebound, it is one that should be sold:

“While in the short term an expected pickup in buyback activity and positive 4Q earnings surprises may provide some support to equities, absent a positive central bank catalyst we see equity risks skewed to the downside over the medium term. We have been highlighting for some time that normalization of US monetary policy could pose a significant risk to equities. If equities get progressively worse with sentiment spilling over into the real economy, the Fed may be forced to pause for a while. This could be a relief to the USD and a positive for equity prices and earnings. However, if the Fed continues to normalize, there is a high degree of risk that equities begin to price in a policy error. Also, this is an election year in the US with partisan debate around a range of issues—tax reform (corporate, personal), fiscal policy (infrastructure, defense programs), healthcare. Depending on election outcome (i.e. far right vs. far left) the implication for US equities and sectors could vary by a wide degree.

All of this puts the Fed’s credibility in the crosshairs: the market is already expecting just one rate hike in 2016 vs the Fed’s “dot plot” forecast of 4. Just how will Yellen converge the two outlooks without leading to even more volatility?

And then there is the economy: “US economic growth estimate for 2016 GDP has been revised down to 1.8% compared to 2.3% in December, which is a step down from 2.4-2.5% seen over the last two years:”

Which brings us to the conclusion:

We are lowering 2016 S&P 500 EPS to $120 from $123 on stronger US Dollar and lower economic growth forecast. The negative  revision to our 2016 EPS estimate is due to the further rise in USD TWI (every 2% increase in USD results in negative earnings revisions of ~1%) and deceleration in US GDP forecast (to 1.8% from 2.3%). Our revised $120 EPS assumes flat sales growth (Street at 3%), flat margins (Street at +6bps) and buybacks contributing ~2% to EPS growth. Risk of earnings recession is rising, with S&P 500 likely to print 2 consecutive years (’15, ‘16e) of flat to negative earnings growth. Additionally, we expect volatility to remain elevated and continue to exert negative pressure on the P/E multiple.

Of course, using a well-known Keynesian strategy, if one only excludes all the negatives, only the great news is left, which may explain what the algos are doing today the stock market today. As for tomorrow, we hope Gartman decides to chase the rebound so the shorting can again resume.


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Gold Soars Above Key Technical Level Near 2-Month Highs

Gold futures just broke out of their recent range, pushing well above the key 100-day moving average and testing towards $1120 – the highest since early November. It appears precious metals are signaling – as they have done since mid-December – that The Fed will be forced to admit it is wrongjust as Jeffrey Gundlach warned.

Is gold pricing in a policy error?

 

Breaking the crucial 100-day moving average (after testing its 3 times)

 

Because the money markets are…

 

And so does most of the rest of the market…


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Official In Charge Of China’s Cooked GDP Books Probed For “Severe Violations”

Earlier this month, China’s top stock regulator offered to resign after an experiment with a circuit breaker went horribly awry, triggering a series of harrowing selloffs on the SHCOMP that reverberated through world markets.

The fiasco was humiliating for CSRC chief Xiao Gang who two Saturdays ago said elevated volatility in China is the result of an “immature market, inexperienced investors, an imperfect trading system and inappropriate supervision mechanisms.” Apparently at a loss for how to right the ship, Xiao tendered his resignation. Or maybe he didn’t. According to Beijing, reports of his departure “do not conform to the facts,” but what’s clear is that things are not going well at China’s securities regulator which last year embarked on a CNY1.5 trillion effort to halt a dramatic decline in share prices that wiped away the life savings of many an illiterate Chinese day trader.

In the wake of the chaos, Beijing decided to crackdown on those “responsible” for the nefarious “manipulation” that caused Chinese stocks to crash. Of course the real cause of the meltdown was that 80% of the market was dumb retail money and investors were leveraged to the gills, but that didn’t stop Beijing from arresting dozens of people including officials at Xiao’s CSRC where Xi is apparently convinced some “graft” was taking place amid the plunge protection effort.

And while it became readily apparent that no one was safe from the long arm of Xi, one person we did not expect to see land on the list of those who have disappeared into the bowels of the Politburo was NBS chief Wang Baoan.

After all, pretty much all you have to do at the NBS is make sure you don’t deviate too far from the Party’s 7% growth “target”, and your job should be secure, but on Tuesday, an announcement posted on the website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection said Wang was being investigated for “severe disciplinary violations.”

As AP notes, the news “came hours after Wang had briefed reporters at a news conference in Beijing about China’s economy in 2015.” 

“The surprise announcement is bound to raise new questions about the accuracy of Beijing’s economic statistics,” CNN remarked.

Those statistics are “reliable” Wang told the press on Tuesday just before the graft investigation was announced. Wang also said George Soros’ “hard landing” call should be dismissed as coming from “just one school of thought.” 

“Facts.” he chided, “speak louder than words” and the Chinese economy is “tall, rich, and handsome” compared the rest of the world, a play on the “cleanest dirty shirt” meme.

As The Straits Times recalls, “Wang was appointed head of the National Bureau of Statistics in April of last year [and] previously spent about 17 years in various positions in the finance ministry, including as vice-minister.”

The obvious question here is why Beijing wants Wang gone. Was he pushing back against the country’s cooked books? Was he set to reveal something disconcerting about the real pace of growth in the world’s second largest economy? Or perhaps it’s the other way around: maybe China is looking to move towards a more honest reporting system for its economic data and is trying to clean house first – although we doubt it. 

It’s also possible Wang is simply the latest high-ranking official to become ensnared in Xi’s “tigers and flies” campaign and the investigation isn’t linked to his oversight of the country’s all-important GDP prints. “Analysts say that given his short tenure at the statistics agency, the corruption allegations are likely to stem from his career at the finance ministry,” FT wrote, earlier today. Still, given the heightened scrutiny on China’s GDP numbers, it seems at least possible that there’s some connection between Wang’s alleged corrupt activities and his management of the country’s manipulated data. 

For now, we’ll simply close with the following quote from The Straits Times who reminds us that whatever it is Wang did or didn’t do, we’ve likely seen the last of him.

Internal investigations into high-level party officials operate without judicial oversight. Once announced, they are likely to lead to a sacking followed by criminal prosecution and jail sentence.


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Artificial Intelligence Pioneer and Transhumanist Marvin Minsky Dies at Age 88

MarvinMinsky

Marvin Minsky founded what became M.I.T.’s Artificial Intelligence Laboratory in 1959. The New York Times’ obituary notes:

Marvin Minsky, who combined a scientist’s thirst for knowledge with a philosopher’s quest for truth as a pioneering explorer of artificial intelligence, work that helped inspire the creation of the personal computer and the Internet, died on Sunday night in Boston. He was 88. …

Well before the advent of the microprocessor and the supercomputer, Professor Minsky, a revered computer science educator at M.I.T., laid the foundation for the field of artificial intelligence by demonstrating the possibilities of imparting common-sense reasoning to computers.

I had the pleasure and privilege of chatting with Minsky a couple of times at various transhumanist events. As I reported from Transvision 2007:

On Wednesday at Transvision 2007, Marvin Minsky, the artificial intelligence guru who heads up MIT’s Media Lab, puckishly suggested we could solve any population problem by uploading the minds of 10 billion people and running them on a computer that occupies a few cubic meters and costs only a few hundred dollars to run. …

Minsky’s talk, “Matter, Mind and Models,” dealt with how he thinks the field of artificial intelligence (AI) went off track. He blamed “physics envy” on the part of AI researchers who sought some simple set of principles that would underlie and explain intelligence. This strategy failed, but researchers made a lot of progress in “narrow” AI. Minsky argued that human brains have a lot of different “ways to think” so that if one way doesn’t work or solve the problem, it doesn’t get stuck. Brains can split problems into parts, simplify, make analogies, and so forth. Current AI programs generally rely on just one main strategy and therefore tend to get stuck. In addition, Minsky claimed that the evolutionarily recent parts of the human brain recognize patterns of activity in other parts of the brain. In particular, those parts of the brain recognize when other parts are trying to solve problems. The brain can reflect on its own activities. Reflection is the missing ingredient in narrow AI research-reinforcement learning networks, rule-bases systems, neural networks, and statistical inference.

Minsky is not shy about speculating on what the future may hold. Once researchers understand how brains work, “we will discover ways to upload our minds into machines.” He predicted that our AI descendants (what AI researcher Hans Moravec called our mind children) will eventually escape from this planet and spread throughout the universe. “If we are the only intelligence in the universe, then we are obligated to ensure that the universe remains meaningful,” said Minsky. We sat at a table together over lunch and it was amusing to see some of the more Marxist-inclined transhumanists express horror when Minsky explained that he thought that democracy was not such a good idea. Why would anyone want to be governed by a majority of stupid people, he wondered.

Minsky is evidently a member of Alcor, and so will likely be cryopreserved. Until the time that he is either revived or uploaded, may he rest in peace.

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Teller Is No Fan of Safe Spaces: Magician Says Learning Should Make Kids Uncomfortable

TellerTeller, the silent half of famed magic duo Penn & Teller, doesn’t believe classrooms should be comfortable places.

During a revealing interview about his career as an educator—he spent six years teaching Latin to high schoolers before becoming a magician—Teller responded to a question about trigger warnings and censorship by professing the joy of “delicious discomfort” in the classroom. From The Atlantic:

And if Shakespeare (or Catullus or Vergil) makes students uncomfortable? That’s a good thing, Teller said. Learning, like magic, should make people uncomfortable, because neither are passive acts. Elaborating on the analogy, he continued, “Magic doesn’t wash over you like a gentle, reassuring lullaby. In magic, what you see comes into conflict with what you know, and that discomfort creates a kind of energy and a spark that is extremely exciting. That level of participation that magic brings from you by making you uncomfortable is a very good thing.”

As we were on the subject of discomfort I asked Teller what he thinks of schools’ efforts to protect students from discomfort as they learn through censoring teachers’ content and requirements for trigger warnings. For the first time in our conversation, Teller illustrated the power of his trademark silence, and the line went quiet.

Just as I’d begun to think we’d been disconnected, he replied,

“When I go outside at night and look up at the stars, the feeling that I get is not comfort. The feeling that I get is a kind of delicious discomfort at knowing that there is so much out there that I do not understand and the joy in recognizing that there is enormous mystery, which is not a comfortable thing. This, I think, is the principal gift of education.”

The whole interview is worth reading. Teller is a fascinating person, and was no doubt a fascinating teacher. He told The Atlantic that on his first day as a teacher, he threw away the textbook and constructed his own curriculum. “I taught [Latin] with a set of Latin readers I composed myself, complete with illustrations, called Lingua Latina Pictorius,” he said.

It’s deeply unfortunate that the public school system doesn’t reward teachers like Teller who think outside the box. No, it does the opposite: creative, entrepreneurial teachers are thwarted at every turn until they give up. Thanks to numerous rules imposed on schools by politically powerful teachers unions, administrators are forced to reward seniority and credentials, rather than merit. It’s endlessly frustrating for young, enterprising teachers to watch their older, less competent, less invested colleagues automatically collect more money than they do—because they have been on staff longer, or hold advanced degrees. According to a report from the New Teacher Project, the system incentivizes bad teachers to keep teaching while driving better teachers out of the field.

The best way to fix the status quo is to disrupt it: empower students to choose innovative schools where teachers are rewarded for working hard to deliver an enchanting education. This week is National School Choice Week, which means it’s a great time to celebrate all the reasons why giving families more of a say in their children’s futures is smart policy: for kids, parents, and teachers (the good apples, at least). [Related: The Libertarian Case for School Choice]

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