Is This Why Futures Soared Overnight?

As we noted in the overnight wrap, after sliding by 1%, and hitting an overnight low of 1,850, just as Europe opened US equity futures staged a furious rebound jumping nearly 30 point in under three hours for reasons largely unknown: surely it wasn’t hope that the Saudis would do any aggressive oil production cutting especially when considering what the CEO of Aramco Amin Nasser said moments ago, namely that the global economy is not encouraging for demand growth, adding that “The current price is definitely a supply-demand issue” hoping that “With low oil prices, demand hopefully will also increase” and estimating that the market is oversupplied by 3 million barrels/day, or about 200% higher than consensus.

And yet, the E-mini did this:

 

Perhaps the reason for this is none other than Dennis Gartman, who after infamously stating that oil will not see $44 again in his lifetime, (after being “quietly bullish of oil” just one month ago), sent this out just as futures were at their overnight lows:

This bear run is not over. There is more to be gotten on the downside. If we must put forth a target to the market’ downside we can suggest accepting Goldman Sachs’ latest estimate for earnings by the S&P listed companies of $110-$115 this year. If we apply a still higher-thanaverage P/e of 15 compared to the present level, that give us a target to the downside of 1690; a 16 P/e gives us a target of 1800 and in the broad scheme of things those are not illogical targets to the downside.

 

We shall strongly urge those who are still aggressively long of equities to become less so; we shall urge those who are upon the sidelines and are “punters” rather than long term investors to err obviously on the short side and we shall urge long term investors who’ve been fortunate enough to have gone to the sidelines to do what they can and what they must to convince themselves that things are not yet “cheap” enough to warrant even nibbling at equities. Patience and discretion shall be… as they always are… the far better parts of investment valor.

End result: anyone who “punted” on the short-side was immediately stopped out. But then again, the day is young, and Gartman may actually be proven correct by closing time…


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China Crashes To 13 Month Low After Last Hour Panic Selling; Crude, Futures Tumble Then Surge

It has been another volatile, illiquid, whipsawed session, driven by the only two things that have mattered so far in 2016, China and oil…. and stop-hunting algos of course.

A quick look at the former first reveals that after sliding gradually all session, Chinese stocks puked in the last hour of trading with the China’s Shanghai Composite Index plunging 6.4% to 2,750, the most since the first week of January, and falling to the lowest level since December 2014. The composite has now plunged 22% in 2016 alone and is the world’s worst-performing primary equity index this year.

Among the reasons for the crash was concern about a possible cash squeeze before next month’s Chinese new year holiday as well as further capital outflows amid signs of a slowing economy, Huang Cendong, Shanghai-based analyst at Sinolink Securities, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. We find that hard to believe, as neither are news.

What is far more accurate is what Wu Kan, a fund manager at JK Life Insurance Co. in Shanghai, said namely that “we are less than two weeks from the spring festival and it seems that most investors have no mood for trading any more.” Indeed, it appears that even the Chinese banana stand traders are tired of participating in a rigged casino and would much rather lose their money on other wholesome activities.

Furthermore, judging by the variety of predictions about what happens to Chinese stocks, such as these:

  • China Fund That Beat 98% of Peers Says Time to ‘Buy in Bulk’ -BBG
  • The Trader Who Made 6,200% on China Stocks Says Sell Now – BBG

… it is quite clear that nobody has any idea what is going on in China, or what is coming.

One thing that is certain, however, is that the Chinese government will continue intervening if not in stocks then in FX which it did earlier today in the offshore Yuan which had dropped 0.2% against the USD only to see the entire loss recovered after the PBOC intervened via “large-sized Chinese banks.”

The latest Chinese crash, and continued oversupply fears initially sent crude falling below $30 a barrel. The two-day drop in West Texas Intermediate topped 8% after a 21 percent rally on Thursday and Friday, the biggest in over seven years demonstrating just what a volatile pennystock oil has become. Data on Wednesday may show U.S. supplies rose by four million barrels last week, keeping inventories more than 120 million barrels above the 5-year seasonal average. As a reminder, the sliding price of oil hasn’t deterred Saudi Arabia. It won’t reduce its spending on energy projects, the catalyst for yesterday’s bounce.

And then, as if on cue, WTI and Brent both surged back over $30 after a few flashing read headlines carried the latest statement from the Iraq oil minister Adel Abdul Mahdi who told reporters in Kuwait City that Saudi Arabia and Russia are more flexible now on making cuts and cooperating, and that Iraq is ready to cut if others do so. The only problem is that Saudi Arabia has made it very clear it won’t cut until either the marginal producers cut first, or it puts the marginal shale producers out of business.

Furthermore, it will only take algos a few hours to realize that such statements are merely an opportunity for the oil ministers to sell into especially after Angola nnounced it would boost crude exports to 55.8MM B/D in March, and will ship 58 cargoes, equating to 1.8m b/d, according to final loading program obtained by Bloomberg. This is up from 1.69m b/d in Feb., and 1.77m b/d in preliminary plan for March. In other words, the supply glut is not only not improving, but getting worse by the day.

And then this:

  • ARAMCO CEO NASSER SAYS OIL MARKET OVERSUPPLIED BY 3M B/D.

For now however that is irrelevant, as algos saw the Iraqi headlines and ran with them, sending oil rebounding sharply from the lows and back into the green for the day, in the process pushing both US equities, which had tumbled more than 1% earlier, back to unchanged, and as now 7 points higher on the day…

… while the US 10 Year which had tumbled as much as 1.94% overnight is back to 2.00%.

At last check, this is where we stood:

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 1874
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.8% to 334
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.6% to 118
  • US 10-yr yield unch at 2.00%
  • Dollar Index up 0.02% to 99.38
  • WTI Crude futures up 0.9% to $30.55
  • Brent up 1.4% to 30.98
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,115
  • Silver spot up 1.1% to $14.39

Going quickly through the regional markets, Asian stocks traded in firm negative territory following the lacklustre close on Wall St., with sentiment dampened after crude pulled back from its largest 2-day gain in 7 years. Nikkei 225 (-2.4%) was pressured by the oil slump, while telecoms led declines amid losses from index heavyweight Softbank, which continued to suffer from Sprint woes. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp (-6.4%) weakened despite the largest liquidity injection conducted in 3 years, as oil weakness dictated sentiment, while outflow concerns also added to the downbeat tone. As a reminder, the ASX 200 was closed today due to Australia Day holiday. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded relatively flat, failing to sustain most its early advances despite weakness in stocks, as participants remain tentative ahead of Friday’s BoJ policy decision.

Top Asian News

  • PBOC’s Flood of Cash Keeps Money Rates in Check Before Holiday: China’s central bank conducts most reverse repos in 3 yrs
  • China’s Stocks Fall to 13-Month Low Amid Capital Outflow Concern: Shanghai Composite Index plunged 6.4% to lowest close since Dec. 2014
  • Hyundai Posts Lowest Profit in Five Years on China Slowdown: Slump in China deliveries overshadowed gains in the U.S., Europe, South Korea; 4Q oper. profit 1.52t won; est. 1.68t won
  • Sumitomo Mitsui Profit Unexpectedly Rises 17% on Stock Gains: 3Q net 238.1b yen, est. 192.4b yen
  • SK Hynix Profit Misses Estimates on Lower Memory Chip Prices: 4Q oper. profit 988.9b won; est. 1.04t won
  • Some BOJ Officials Are Said to See More Easing as Close Call: Kuroda gave no hint of his appetite for more stimulus at Davos
  • Hong Kong Feels Squeeze of Slowing China and Rising Rates: Stock selloff and Hong Kong dollar pressure unnerve investors
  • Singapore’s 80-Cent Loans Not Cheap Enough for Distressed Funds: Asian secondary loan trading thinnest in decade, says SC Lowy
  • Malaysia Brings Najib Probe to Close With No Graft Found: Najib has faced pressure to step down over funding scandal

In Europe, oil has turned around in recent trade, abating the risk off sentiment after both Brent and WTI re-took the USD 30.00 handle aided by comments from the Iraqi oil minister regarding production. European equities have been boosted by a turnaround in the energy sector, which was the laggard by a substantial margin throughout most of European trade today. It has recently turned around however, and lifted European indices off their worst levels.

In spite of a turnaround in risk sentiment, Bunds still trade higher (25 ticks), while the Dax (-0.7%) is lower even though one of its largest companies Siemens (6.4%) upgraded its EPS forecast. As participants await the release of Apple earnings after market today, it’s worth noting that its German

Top European News:

  • Lundbeck Said to Explore Options for Alcohol-Dependence Drug: Review may lead to a partnership agreement for Selincro
  • Draghi Says ECB Credibility Hinges on Meeting Its Inflation Goal: ECB President says critics ignore risks of doing nothing
  • Philips Earnings Beat Estimates on Jump in Medical Orders: 4Q Ebita ex-items EU842m, est. EU798m; confirms it sees modest comparable sales growth in 2016, expects improvements in the year to be back-end loaded; Philips’s Lumileds Draws Interest, May Get Lower Price, CEO Says
  • EasyJet to Intensify Cost Cuts as 2015 Terrorism Hurts Fares: iscal 1Q rev. fell 0.1% on pricing, currencies
  • Swiss Watch Exports Decline Amid Smartwatch Encroachment: Dec. exports declined 3.8%, pushing shipments down 3.3% on the yr to CHF21.5b, Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said
  • Dixons Carphone to Accelerate Closings as Sales Beat Estimates: Will reduce outlet numbers by 134 over the next yr as it combines its PC World and Currys stores, while inserting a Carphone Warehouse outlet into each
  • Tesco Rapped by Grocery Regulator Over Treatment of Suppliers: Serious Fraud Office criminal probe still hangs over grocer
  • U.K. Flirts With Failed Debt Auction as Analysts Wince at Depth: Analysts study chance as Jan. 20 offer barely oversubscribed
  • Deutsche Post to Expand Parcel Service to Confront Amazon: Bild

In commodities, WTI crude fluctuated after Monday’s 5.8 percent retreat. Government data due out Wednesday is expected to show U.S. inventories rose by 4 million barrels last week, according to energy analysts. That would be a third week of gains. Oil is down almost 20 percent this year amid concern over brimming U.S. stockpiles, steady output from Saudi Arabia and Russia and the prospect of increasing Iranian shipments after the end of sanctions. Bets that WTI will retreat below $25 a barrel have reached a record high.

Iraq’s oil ministers says Russia and Saudi Arabia are more flexible on cutting oil output and would agree to have an emergency OPEC meeting but says it would be pointless without an upfront agreement on production.

Gold for immediate delivery gained 0.5 percent to $1,112.94 an ounce. It climbed 0.8 percent last week as the turmoil in global stock markets renewed interest in the metal as a store of value.

In FX, haven currencies erased earlier gains. The euro weakened 0.2 percent to $1.0833, while the yen was at 118.29 per dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, increased 0.1 percent. The won fell for the first time in four days after South Korea reported economic growth of 3 percent for the fourth quarter on a year-on-year basis, retreating from a five-year high. Foreign funds have pulled $2.5 billion from Korean shares so far this year. Russia’s ruble strengthened 0.6 percent, erasing an intraday decline and clawing back some of Monday’s 2.5 percent drop.

EUR/USD drivers are similar balanced, risk off rally against fresh ECB stimulus keeping the pair on the 1.0800’s for the foreseeable future. Oil was back on a USD 29.0 handle to send CAD, RUB, MXN et al all lower again, but recovering well in line with both WTI and Brent reclaiming USD 30.0 on fresh comments (from SA, Russian and Iraq) on production levels.

On the US calendar today we have the November FHFA house price index and S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. Following this will be the flash January services and composite PMI’s, before we get the January consumer confidence reading where current expectations are for no change relative to last month. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index print for January is also due out this afternoon. In terms of central bank speakers, comments from the BoE’s Carney (at 10.45pm GMT) this morning related to the December Financial Stability Report will be worth keeping an eye on. Meanwhile, earnings season rumbles on with 23 S&P 500 companies due to report. The highlight will no doubt be the Apple results which are expected post the closing bell, while Johnson & Johnson (pre-market), AT&T (after-market) and Proctor & Gamble (pre-market) are also due to report.

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • Treasuries slightly higher overnight as world equity markets selloff, oil mostly steady; week’s U.S. auctions begin today with $26b 2Y notes, WI yield 0.86%, compares with 1.056% awarded in Dec., fifth straight 2Y auction to stop through.
  • China’s stocks tumbled to the lowest levels in 13 months amid concern capital outflows will accelerate as the economy slows and support for the yuan eats into the nation’s foreign reserves
  • The mismatch between trade data reported by Hong Kong and China widened to the second-highest on record in December, renewing speculation of faked invoices
  • According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, China will steer clear of a hard landing and the government will contain the risks arising from its financial market turbulence
  • While stocks are having a chaotic start to the year, investors are pulling money from securities that profit from higher volatility at the same time as short sellers are piling into bets that tranquility will return
  • Mario Draghi hit back at critics of his policies, saying the European Central Bank must fulfill its inflation mandate in order to maintain its credibility
  • Greece’s next bite of bailout money may turn into a movable feast if PM Alexis Tsipras can’t convince euro-area authorities he’s making good on his promises to fix Greece’s pension system, update its labor markets and close fiscal gaps
  • U.K. government bonds have investors bracing for a failed sale. An offering Jan. 20 that attracted the lowest demand in nearly seven years might be a warning sign for buyers who haven’t balked at acquiring all the targeted debt since a March 2009 auction
  • Across the U.S., the story is much the same. The world’s economic woes — from China to Russia to South America — are damping sales in the high-end real estate market
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly lower except for Greece which widens 15bp. Asian, European stocks mostly lower; U.S. equity-index futures drop. Crude oil steady, copper and gold rise

US Eveonomic Calendar

  • 9:00am: FHFA House Price Index m/m, Nov., est. 0.5% (prior 0.5%)
  • 9:00am: S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI m/m, Nov. (prior 0.88%)
    • S&P/CS 20-City Index NSA, Nov., est. 183.09 (prior 182.83)
    • S&P/CS 20 City m/m SA, Nov., est. 0.8% (prior 0.84%)
    • S&P/CS Composite-20 y/y, Nov., est. 5.67% (prior 5.54%)
    • S&P/CS US HPI NSA, Nov. (prior 175.65)
    • S&P/CS US HPI y/y, Nov. (prior 5.17%)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, Jan. P, est. 54 (prior 54.3)
  • Markit US Composite PMI, Jan. P (prior 54)
  • 10:00am: Consumer Confidence Index, Jan., est. 96.5 (prior 96.5)
  • 10:00am: Richmond Fed Mfg Index, Jan., est. 2 (prior 6)

Top Headline News:

  • Oil has turned around in recent trade, abating the risk off sentiment after both Brent and WTI re¬took the USD 30.00 handle
  • FX markets continue to trade in familiar ranges, but clearly to the downside as sentiment is mostly sour
  • Today’s highlights include: US S&P/CaseShiller 20-City Index NSA, API Crude Oil Inventories, BoE’s Carney and earnings from the likes of Apple and Johnson & Johnson
  • Huntington Bancshares to Acquire FirstMerit for $3.4b: FirstMerit shareholders will receive 1.72 shares of Huntington common stock and $5 in cash for each share that they own
  • Staples Shakes Up Management, May Go Without Office Depot: Demos Parneros, Staples’ president of North American stores and its online business, will step down by March 31
  • Siemens Raises Outlook as Lower Tax Offsets China, Oil Slump: FY EPS will be between EU6-EU6.40, higher than a previous forecast of EU5.90-EU6.20
  • Crane Co. 2016 EPS Forecast Range Below Ests; 4Q Adj. EPS Beats: Sees yr EPS $3.85-$4.15, est. $4.27.
  • Obama Seeks to Expand 401(k) Use by Letting Employers Pool Plans: President wants $100m to test more portable accounts
  • JPMorgan Reaches $1.42 Billion Deal in Lehman Clearing Case: Lehman said the settlement resolves 2 of the 3 major pieces of litigation with JPMorgan left over from its 2008 bankruptcy
  • Paulson Pledges Personal Holdings to Back Firm After Assets Fall: Puts up his hedge-fund interests for credit line
  • Traders Are Withdrawing Money From VIX Funds Like Never Before: VIX index of market stress jumps 33 percent in Jan.
  • Flexible Workers, AI Keys to Future Success, Accenture Predicts: Companies must invest in AI, training, platforms, says firm
  • Einhorn’s Greenlight May Seek SunEdison Sale, Filing Shows: Greenlight says it may propose changes including asset sale
  • Retirement Giant Fidelity Now Wants Workers’ Health Insurance: To offer private health exchange for midsized firms
  • Nexstar Said to Be Close to $2.3b Deal for Media General: NYP: Agreement is expected to be put on hold when announced, because Media General has already pledged itself to Meredith Corp.: NYP cites one unidentified person familiar
  • Tesla’s Musk Says Held High-Level Talks With Chinese Government: Tesla is looking for a Chinese production partner but still “trying to figure that out,” billionaire co. co-founder Elon Musk tells a business conference in Hong Kong
  • Verso Files for Chapter 11 Protection in Delaware Today

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Global markets spat their dummy out again on Monday as oil tumbled yet again (over -7.5%) after the largest 2-day rally for 7 years. News out of Saudi Arabia proved to be a big driver in the European session, as the world’s largest crude exporter noted that it did not plan to reduce its investment spending on energy projects despite lower oil prices (Bloomberg). The risk-off sentiment once again dragged on equities, as European markets wiped out early gains and closed in marginally negative territory (STOXX -0.62%; FTSE -0.39%; DAX -0.29%) while US equities sold off in line until a weak final hour of trading saw the S&P 500 lose nearly an extra percentage point to close -1.56%.

Asia is following on from the US close with the Nikkei and Hang Seng down -2.4% and -1.8% as we go to print. The Shanghai Comp is around -3% lower and trading at 13 month lows. Oil has continued its slide from yesterday, declining around -2.5%. Just after we went to print yesterday the futures contract hit $32.73. 24 hours later it’s at $29.57 – nearly 10% lower from the highs. With high impact news-flow from China easing for now, Oil has taken over as the main global markets driver at the moment and when you get swings like we’ve seen since last Wednesday evening, sentiment is going to be messy.

Obvious one of the asset classes most in focus over the last few months and one closely tied to the price of Oil has been US credit. Yesterday our US credit strategist Oleg Melentyev published an update which included looking at how the market has rarely been as dislocated (less than 15% of HY trading within 100bps of the overall index – close to the lowest ever) but at least showing signs of fair value re-emerging. As Oleg discusses, HY ex-energy has widened 80bps so far in 2016, and 115bp since early December; currently standing at 667bp. IG ex-energy spreads at 168bp are +17 and +21bps respectively over those time horizons. Both markets have now modestly overshot his targets of 650bp and 155bp respectively. Oleg worries that if credit widens much more it could reach the point of no return and become even more self fulfilling. In the note he also looks at their lead indicators for the default cycle with many of them recently reaching critical levels. So overall value re-emerging but with risk that we could be near a tipping point in some of the market drivers.

Back to markets, data releases out yesterday were largely disappointing and did little to help the risk off sentiment across markets. The German IFO survey data for January missed estimates as the business expectations index fell to 102.4 (vs. 104.2 expected; 104.6 previous) and the business climate index fell  to 107.3 (vs. 108.4 expected; 108.6 previous). Data out of Italy was also soft, as retail sales numbers for November posted only +0.3% mom (vs. +0.5% expected) and increased concerns that the country’s economic recovery may already be losing momentum. The UK saw factory orders data for the three months to January dip more than expected as indicated by the CBI order book balance (-15 vs. -10 expected; -7 previous). On a somewhat positive note, optimism about the general business environment increased to -4 (vs. -12 prior) over the same period.

Data out of the US was also negative, as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey reported a sharp drop in broader business conditions, as the general business activity index for January came in at -34.6 (vs. -14.5 expected; -21.6 previous) – the lowest levels since April 2009. Texas manufacturing activity also fell sharply to near recession levels with the production index dropping to -10.2 (vs. 12.7 previous), while the general Company outlook index came in at -19.5 (vs. – 10.5 previous).

Looking at today’s calendar, with no data due in Europe this morning it’s all eyes on the US session where there are a number of releases due. Kicking things off will be the latest housing market data where we’ve got the November FHFA house price index and S&P/Case-Shiller home price index prints both expected. Following this will be the flash January services and composite PMI’s, before we get the January consumer confidence reading where current expectations are for no change relative to last month. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index print for January is also due out this afternoon. In terms of central bank speakers, comments from the BoE’s Carney (at 10.45pm GMT) this morning related to the December Financial Stability Report will be worth keeping an eye on. Meanwhile, earnings season rumbles on with 23 S&P 500 companies due to report. The highlight will no doubt be the Apple results which are expected post the closing bell, while Johnson & Johnson (pre-market), AT&T (after-market) and Proctor & Gamble (pre-market) are also due to report.


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Makers of Controversial Planned Parenthood Video Face Felony Charges, Seemingly for Fake I.D.s

Makers of the controversial video made to shame Planned Parenthood by pretending to be researchers trying to purchase fetal tissue from the organization, David Daleiden and Sandra Merritt (working under the aegis of the “Center for Medical Progress”), were indicted today in Harris County, Texas, by a grand jury on felony charges of “tampering with a governmental record.” 

The grand jury was ironically convened to investigate whether the videos reveals that Planned Parenthood had broken any laws.

Since the story broke this afternoon I saw coverage cheering the indictment largely because they were sympathetic to Planned Parenthood and thought the video makers had done a bad thing, or booing it because they were unsympathetic to Planned Parenthood and thought the video makers had done a good thing.

But for hours no explanation of what specific act they had actually committed qualified under the quoted indictment language of “tampering with a governmental record” seemed forthcoming, or at least none that I had seen.

Now The New York Times has updated with a possible explanation:

In making the videos, Mr. Daleiden and others have been accused of setting up a fake company called Biomax Procurement Services, creating fake identities and claiming to be part of a legitimate provider of fetal tissue to researchers.

“We know that they used fake IDs that had their real photographs but fake names and fake addresses purported to be issued by the State of California,” said Josh Schaffer, a Houston lawyer who represents Planned Parenthood Gulf Coast in the Harris County criminal investigation. Mr. Daleiden and Ms. Merritt presented those IDs to security at the Planned Planned office to gain entry to the building. “They never denied that they presented a fake ID,” Mr. Schaffer said…..

“It does not surprise me that a grand jury that chose to correctly apply the law to the evidence that was presented would return this result,” he said. “The written charges have not been released publicly yet, so at this point I am working on my knowledge of the investigation.”

What seems to be the relevant Texas criminal code, only one I found with that language:

Sec. 37.10. TAMPERING WITH GOVERNMENTAL RECORD. (a) A person commits an offense if he:

(1) knowingly makes a false entry in, or false alteration of, a governmental record;

(2) makes, presents, or uses any record, document, or thing with knowledge of its falsity and with 

intent  that it be taken as a genuine governmental record;

(3) intentionally destroys, conceals, removes, or otherwise impairs the verity, legibility, or availability 

of a governmental record;

(4) possesses, sells, or offers to sell a governmental record or a blank governmental record form 

with intent that it be used unlawfully;

(5) makes, presents, or uses a governmental record with knowledge of its falsity; or

(6) possesses, sells, or offers to sell a governmental record or a blank governmental record form with 

knowledge that it was obtained unlawfully…..

(c)(1) Except as provided by Subdivisions (2), (3), and (4) and by Subsection (d), an offense under 

this section is a Class A misdemeanor unless the actor’s intent is to defraud or harm another, in 

which event the offense is a state jail felony.

The reporting all states that their charge is a felony one. According to this site, a “state jail felony” is:

punishable by 180 days to two years in state jail and a fine of up to $10,000.

Daleiden also was hit with a misdemeanor charge related to attempting to buy human tissue.

It’s possible people might rise above their culture-war sympathies about this and wonder whether having and using a fake I.D. in and of itself should be punished as a felony. Or, maybe not and those who want to see those guys punished will grab whatever stick they can toward that goal. (Or maybe people genuinely believe the making of a fake I.D. deserves six months to 2 years locked in a cage.)

Past Reason coverage involving those videos.

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Bernie Sanders Says He’d Raise Taxes. Of Course He Would.

Bernie Sanders made something very clear tonight at a Democratic townhall event in Iowa: He wants to raise taxes.

“We will raise taxes. Yes we will,” Sanders said in response to a question about how Sanders would pay for the immense cost of his single-payer health care plan, which would make government the universal insurer for every American.

In the plan, Sanders calls for individuals to pay an “income-based premium.” But this is basically just another way of describing a new tax that would hit most everyone, including middle-income earners.

Sanders admitted as much tonight, but also defended himself, saying that under his plan, the taxes would replace health insurance premiums.

“But let me be clear,” Sanders said, “There’s a little bit of disingenunity out there. We will raise taxes but we are also going to eliminate private health insurance premiums for individuals and for businesses.”

Even still, this would require raising about $1.35 trillion in new revenue each year—the initial cost estimate for Obamacare was a little shy of $1 trillion over a decade—under the rosiest possible assumptions. Actually, scratch that; rosy assumptions is too kind. The Sanders plan simply assumes that we’ll reduce health care spending in the U.S. by nearly a half a trillion dollars a year, without offering any details at all about how that will happen. In fact, the incredibly generous, cover-everything-at-no-cost plan it seems to sketch would almost certainly not achieve the sort of savings Sanders imagines. If anything, it would likely lead to massive increases in health care utilization and spending. It is a fantasy of easy, effortless savings that makes no attempt to reckon with the trade-offs it would inevitably require.

So yes, Bernie Sanders is admitting the obvious: As president, he’d push to raise taxes. Of course he would! But even in this admission, he’s not telling the whole truth about what his health care plan would entail.

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Presidential Crimes Then And Now

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

Are Nixon’s and the Reagan administration’s crimes noticable on the scale of Clinton’s, George W. Bush’s, and Obama’s?

Not much remains of the once vibrant American left-wing. Among the brainwashed remnants there is such a hatred of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan that the commitment of these two presidents to ending dangerous military rivalries is unrecognized. Whenever I write about the illegal invasions of other countries launched by Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama, leftists point to Chile, Nicaragua and Grenada and say that nothing has changed. But a great deal has changed. In the 1970s and 1980s Nixon and Reagan focused on reducing Cold War tensions. Courageously, Nixon negotiated nuclear arms limitation agreements with the Soviet Union and opened to China, and Reagan negotiated with Gorbachev the end of the dangerous Cold War.

Beginning with the Clinton regime, the neoconservative doctrine of the US as the Uni-power exercising hegemony over the world has resurrected tensions between nuclear-armed powers. Clinton trashed the word of the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and expanded NATO throughout Eastern Europe and brought the military alliance to Russia’s border. The George W. Bush regime withdrew from the anti-ballistic missile treaty, revised US war doctrine to permit pre-emptive nuclear attack, and negotiated with Washington’s East European vassals to put anti-ballistic missiles on Russia’s borders in an effort to neutralize Russia’s nuclear deterrent, thus bringing major security problems to Russia. The Obama regime staged a coup against a government allied with Russia in Ukraine, traditionally a part of Russia, and imposed a Russophobia government as Washington’s vassal. Turning to China, Washington announced the “pivot to Asia” with the purpose of controlling shipping in the South China Sea. Additionally, the Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama regimes fomented wars across a wide swath of the planet from Yugoslavia and Serbia through the Middle East and Africa to South Ossetia and now in Ukraine.

The neoconservative ideology rose from the post-Reagan collapse of the Soviet Union. The doctrine met the need of the US military/security complex for a new enemy in order to avoid downsizing. Washington’s pursuit of empire is a principal danger to life itself for everyone on the planet.

Unlike Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama, Nixon and Reagan went against the military/security complex. Nixon opened to China and made arms reduction agreements with the Soviets. Reagan negotiated with Gorbachev the end of the Cold War. The military/security complex was displeased with these presidential initiatives. Both left and right accused Nixon and Reagan of nefarious machinations. Right-wing Republicans said that Nixon and Kissinger were selling America out to the communists and that the scheming Soviets would take advantage of Reagan, the old movie actor. “Communists,” we were assured, “only understand force.”

Nixon and Reagan focused on eliminating dangerous rivalries, and the three stooges—Clinton, Bush, and Obama—have resurrected the rivalries. Those who cannot see the astonishing difference are blinded by prejudices and their brainwashing.

In this article, I describe unappreciated aspects of the Nixon and Reagan presidencies. What I provide is neither a justification nor a denunciation, but an explanation. Here is what Patrick Buchanan, who was in the White House with both presidents, wrote to me in response to my explanation:

“Craig, you are dead on in what you write about both Nixon and Reagan and what they sought in their presidencies. Reagan often talked of those ‘godawful weapons,’ meaning nukes. I was at Reykjavik with him, and was stunned at Hofde House to learn that Ronald Reagan pretty much wanted to trade them all away. And when, years later, Tom Wicker wrote favorably about the Nixon presidency, he accurately titled his book One of Us. All his life Nixon sought the approbation of the [pre-neocon] Establishment. Am deep into a new book, based on my experiences and my White House files, and all through it I am urging him [Nixon] to be and to become the kind of conservative president I wanted, but he never was. My thanks for bringing in The Greatest Comeback, which covered the period when I was closest to Nixon. All the best, Pat.”

Writing for Americans is not always an enjoyable experience. Many readers want to have their prejudices confirmed, not challenged. Emotions rule their reason, and they are capable of a determined resistance to facts and are not inhibited from displays of rudeness and ignorance. Indeed, some are so proud of their shortcomings that they can’t wait to show them to others. Some simply cannot read and confuse explanations with justifications as if the act of explaining something justifies the person or event explained. Thankfully, all readers are not handicapped in these ways or there would be no point in trying to inform the American people.

In a recent column I used some examples of Clinton-era scandals to make a point about the media, pointing out that the media and the American people were more interested in Clinton’s sexual escapades and in his choice of underwear than in the many anomalies associated with such serious events as the Oklahoma City bombing, Waco, the mysterious death of a White House legal counsel, US sanctions on Iraq that took the lives of 500,000 children, and illegal war against Serbia.

Reaganphobes responded in an infantile way, remonstrating that the same standards should be applied to “your dear beloved Ray-Gun” as to Clinton. Those readers were unable to understand that the article was not about Clinton, but about how the media sensationalizes unimportant events in order to distract attention from serious ones. Examples from the Clinton era were used, because no question better epitomizes the level of the American public’s interest in political life than the young woman’s question to President Clinton: “boxers or briefs?”

It is doubtful that journalists and historians are capable of providing accurate understandings of any presidential term. Even those personally involved often do not know why some things happened. I have been in White House meetings from which every participant departed with a different understanding of what the president’s policy was. This was not the result of lack of clarity on the president’s part, but from the various interests present shaping the policy to their agendas.

Many Americans regard the White House as the lair of a powerful being who can snap his fingers and make things happen. The fact of the matter is that presidents have little idea of what is transpiring in the vast cabinet departments and federal agencies that constitute “their” administration. Many parts of government are empires unto themselves. The “Deep State,” about which Mike Lofgren, formerly a senior member of the Congressional staff has written, is unaccountable to anyone. But even the accountable part of the government isn’t. For example, the information flows from the cabinet departments, such as defense, state, and treasury, are reported to Assistant Secretaries, who control the flow of information to the Secretaries, who inform the President. The civil service professionals can massage the information one way, the Assistant Secretaries another, and the Secretaries yet another. If the Secretaries report the information to the White House Chief of Staff, the information can be massaged yet again. In my day before George W. Bush and Dick Cheney gave us the Gestapo-sounding Department of Homeland Security, the Secret Service reported to an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, but the Assistant Secretary had no way of evaluating the reliability of the information. The Secret Service reported whatever it suited the Secret Service to report.

Those who think that “the President knows” can test their conviction by trying to keep up with the daily announcements from all departments and agencies of the government. It is a known fact that CEOs of large corporations, the relative size of which are tiny compared to the US government, cannot know all that is happening within their organizations.

Nixon: Villain or Centrist Reformer?

I am not particularly knowledgeable about the terms of our various presidents. Nevertheless, I suspect that the Nixon and Reagan terms are among the least understood. Both presidents had more ideological opponents among journalists and historians than they had defenders. Consequently, their stories are distorted by how their ideological opponents want them to be seen and remembered. For example, compare your view of Richard Nixon with the portrait Patrick Buchanan provides in his latest book, The Greatest Comeback. A person doesn’t have to agree with Buchanan’s view of the issues of those years, or with how Buchanan positioned, or tried to position, Nixon on various issues, to learn a great deal about Nixon. Buchanan can be wrong on issues, but he is not dishonest.

For a politician, Richard Nixon was a very knowledgeable person. He travelled widely, visiting foreign leaders. Nixon was the most knowledgeable president about foreign policy we have ever had. He knew more than Obama, Bush I and II, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Ford, and Johnson combined.

The liberal-left created an image of Nixon as paranoid and secretive with a long enemies list, but Buchanan shows that Nixon was inclusive, a “big tent” politician with a wide range of advisors. There is no doubt that Nixon had enemies. Many of them continue to operate against him long after his death.

Indeed, it was Nixon’s inclusiveness that made conservatives suspicious of him. To keep conservatives in his camp, Nixon used their rhetoric, and Nixon’s rhetoric fueled Nixon-hatred among the liberal-left. The inclination to focus on words rather than deeds is another indication of the insubstantiality of American political comprehension.

Probably the US has never had a more liberal president than Nixon. Nixon went against conservatives and established the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by executive order. He supported the Clean Air Act of 1970. Nixon federalized Medicaid for poor families with dependent children and proposed a mandate that private employers provide health insurance to employees. He desegregated public schools and implemented the first federal affirmative action program.

Declaring that “there is no place on this planet for a billion of its potentially most able people to live in angry isolation,” Nixon engineered the opening to Communist China. He ended the Vietnam War and replaced the draft with the volunteer army. He established economic trade with the Soviet Union and negotiated with Soviet leader Brezhnev landmark arms control treaties—SALT I and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 1972, which lasted for 30 years until the neoconized George W. Bush regime violated and terminated the treaty in 2002.

These are astonishing achievements for any president, especially a Republican one. But if you ask Americans what they know about Nixon, the response is Watergate and President Nixon’s forced resignation.

In other words, here is more proof that all the American media does is to lie to us. The US media is no longer independent. It is a servile captive creature that turns lies into truths via endless repetitions.

I am convinced that Nixon’s opening to China and Nixon’s arms control treaties and de-escalation of tensions with the Soviet Union threatened the power and profit of the military/security complex. Watergate was an orchestration used to remove the threat that Nixon presented. If you read the Watergate reporting by Woodward and Bernstein in the Washington Post, there is no real information in it. In place of information, words are used to create an ominous presence and sinister atmosphere that is transferred to Nixon.

There was nothing in the Watergate scandal that justified Nixon’s impeachment, but his liberal policies had alienated conservative Republicans. Conservatives never forgave Nixon for agreeing with Zhou Enlai that Taiwan was part of China. When the Washington Post, John Dean, and a missing segment of a tape got Nixon in trouble, conservatives did not come to his defense. The liberal-left was overjoyed that Nixon got his comeuppance for supporting the exposure and prosecution of Soviet spy Alger Hiss two decades previously.

I do not contend that the left-wing has no legitimate reasons for hostility against Nixon. Nixon wanted out of Vietnam, but “with honor” so that conservatives would not abandon him. Nixon did not want to become known as the President who forced the US military to accept defeat. He wanted to end the war, but if not with victory then with a stalemate like Korea. He or Kissinger gave the US military carte blanche to produce a situation that the US could exit “with honor.” This resulted in the secret bombing in Laos and Cambodia. The shame of the bombings cancelled any exit with real honor.

The Reagan era is also misunderstood. Just as President Jimmy Carter was regarded as an outsider by the Democratic Washington Establishment, Ronald Reagan was an outsider to the Republican Establishment whose candidate was George H. W. Bush. Just as Carter’s presidency was neutered by the Washington Establishment with the frame-up of Carter’s Budget Director and Chief of Staff, Reagan was partially neutered before he assumed office, and the Establishment removed in succession two national security advisors who were loyal to Reagan.

Reagan’s Priorities and the Establishment’s Agenda

When Reagan won the Republican presidential nomination, he was told that although he had defeated the Establishment in the primaries, the voters would not be able to come to his defense in Washington. He must not make Goldwater’s mistake and shun the Republican Establishment, but pick its presidential candidate for his vice president. Otherwise, the Republican Establishment would work to defeat him in the presidential election just as Rockefeller had undermined Goldwater.

As a former movie star, Nancy Reagan put great store on personal appearance. Reagan’s California crew was a motley one. Lynn Nofziger, for example, sported a beard and a loosely knotted tie if a tie at all. He moved around his office in sock feet without shoes. When Nancy saw Bush’s man, Jim Baker, she concluded that the properly attired Baker was the person that she wanted standing next to her husband when photos were made. Consequently, Reagan’s first term had Bush’s most capable operative as Chief of Staff of the White House.

To get Reagan’s program implemented with the Republican Establishment occupying the chief of staff position was a hard fight.

I don’t mean that Jim Baker was malevolent and wished to damage Reagan. For a member of the Republican Establishment, Jim Baker was very intelligent, and he is a hard person to dislike. The problem with Baker was two-fold. He was not part of the Reagan team and did not understand what we were about or why Reagan was elected. Americans wanted the stagflation that had destroyed Jimmy Carter’s presidency ended, and they were tired of the ongoing Cold War with the Soviet Union and its ever present threat of nuclear Armageddon.

It is not that Baker (or VP Bush) were personally opposed to these goals. The problem was that the Establishment, whether Republican or Democratic, is responsive not to solving issues but to accommodating the special interest groups that comprise the Establishment. For the Establishment, preserving power is the primary issue. As The Saker makes clear, in both parties the Anglos of my time, of which George H. W. Bush was the last, have been replaced by the neocons. The neocons represent an ideology in addition to special interest groups, such as the Israel Lobby.

The Republican Establishment and the Federal Reserve did not understand Reagan’s Supply-Side economic policy. In the entire post World War II period, reductions in tax rates were associated with the Keynesian demand management macroeconomic policy of increasing aggregate demand. The Reagan administration had inherited high inflation, and economists, Wall Street, and the Republican Establishment, along with Reagan’s budget director, David Stockman, misunderstood Reagan’s supply-side policy as a stimulus to consumer demand that would cause inflation, already high, to explode. On top of this, conservatives in Congress were disturbed that Reagan’s policy would worsen the deficit—in their opinion the worst evil of all.

Reagan’s supply-side economic policy was designed not to increase aggregate demand, but to increase aggregate supply. Instead of prices rising, output and employment would rise. This was a radically new way of using fiscal policy to raise incentives to produce rather than to manage aggregate demand, but instead of helping people to understand the new policy, the media ridiculed and mischaracterized the policy as “voodoo economics,” “trickle- down economics,” and “tax cuts for the rich.” These mischaracterizations are still with us three decades later. Nevertheless, the supply-side policy was partially implemented. It was enough to end stagflation and the policy provided the basis for Clinton’s economic success. It also provided the economic basis that made credible Reagan’s strategy of forcing the Soviets to choose between a new arms race or negotiating the end of the Cold War.

Ending the Cold War and Bad CIA Advice

President Reagan’s goal of ending the Cold War was upsetting to both conservatives and the military/security complex. Conservatives warned that wily Soviets would deceive Reagan and gain from the negotiations. The military/security complex regarded Reagan’s goal of ending the Cold War as a threat comparable to Nixon’s opening to China and arms limitations treaties with the Soviet Union. President John F. Kennedy had threatened the same powerful interests when he realized from the Cuban Missile Crisis that the US must put an end to the risk of nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union.

With the success of his economic policy in putting the US economy back on its feet, Reagan intended to force a negotiated end to the Cold War by threatening the Soviets with an arms race that their suffering economy could not endure. However, the CIA advised Reagan that if he renewed the arms race, he would lose it, because the Soviet economy, being centrally planned, was in the hands of Soviet leaders, who, unlike Reagan, could allocate as much of the economy as necessary to win the arms race. Reagan did not believe the CIA. He created a secret presidential committee with authority to investigate the CIA’s evidence for its claim, and he appointed me to the committee. The committee concluded that the CIA was wrong.

Reagan always told us that his purpose was to end, not win, the Cold War. He said that the only victory he wanted was to remove the threat of nuclear annihilation. He made it clear that he did not want a Soviet scalp. Like Nixon, to keep conservatives on board, he used their rhetoric.

Curing stagflation and ending the Cold War were the main interests of President Reagan. Perhaps I am mistaken, but I do not think he paid much attention to anything else.

Grenada and the Contras in Nicaragua were explained to Reagan as necessary interventions to make the Soviets aware that there would be no further Soviet advances and, thus, help to bring the Soviets to the negotiating table to end the nuclear threat. Unlike the George W. Bush and Obama regimes, the Reagan administration had no goal of a universal American Empire exercising hegemony over the world. Grenada and Nicaragua were not part of an empire-building policy. Reagan understood them as a message to the Soviets that “you are not going any further, so let’s negotiate.”

Conservatives regarded the reformist movements in Grenada and Nicaragua as communist subversion, and were concerned that these movements would ally with the Soviet Union, thus creating more Cuba-like situations. Even President Carter opposed the rise of a left-wing government in Nicaragua. Grenada and Nicaragua were reformist movements rather than communist-inspired, and the Reagan administration should have supported them, but could not because of the hysteria of American conservatives. Reagan knew that if his constituency saw him as “soft on communism,” he would lack the domestic support that he needed in order to negotiate with the Kremlin the end of the Cold War.

America Playing the Foreign Policy Game

Today Western governments support and participate in Washington’s invasions, but not then. The invasion of Grenada was criticized by both the British and Canadian governments. The US had to use its UN Security Council veto to save itself from being condemned for “a fragrant violation of international law.”

The Sandinistas in Nicaragua were reformers opposed to the corruption of the Somoza regime that catered to American corporate and financial interests. The Sandinistas aroused the same opposition from Washington as every reformist government in Latin America always has. Washington has traditionally regarded Latin American reformers as Marxist revolutionary movements and has consistently overthrown reformist governments in behalf of the United Fruit Company and other private interests that have large holdings in countries ruled by unrepresentative governments.

Washington’s policy was, and still is, short-sighted and hypocritical. The United States should have allied with representative governments, not against them. However, no American president, no matter how wise and well- intentioned, would have been a match for the combination of the interests of politically-connected US corporations and the fear of more Cubas. Remember Marine General Smedley Butler’s confession that he and his US Marines served to make Latin America safe for the United Fruit Company and “some lousy investment of the bankers.”

Information is Power

Americans, even well informed ones, dramatically over-estimate the knowledge of presidents and the neutrality of the information that is fed to them by the various agencies and advisors. Information is power, and presidents get the information that Washington wants them to receive. In Washington private agendas abound, and no president is immune from these agendas. A cabinet secretary, budget director, or White House chief of staff who knows how Washington works and has media allies is capable, if so inclined, of shaping the agenda independently of the president’s preferences.

The Establishment prefers a nonentity as president, a person without experience and a cadre of knowledgeable supporters to serve him. Harry Truman was, and Obama is, putty in the hands of the Establishment. If you read Oliver Stone and Peter Kuznick’s The Untold History of the US, you will see that the Democratic Establishment, realizing that FDR would not survive his fourth term, forced his popular Vice President Henry Wallace off the ticket and put in his place the inconsequential Truman. With Truman in place, the military/security complex was able to create the Cold War.

From Bad to Worse

The transgressions of law that occurred during the Nixon and Reagan years are small when compared to the crimes of Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama, and the crimes were punished. Nixon was driven from office and numerous Reagan administration officials were prosecuted and convicted. Neither Nixon nor Reagan could have run roughshod over both Constitution and statutory law, setting aside habeas corpus and due process and detaining US citizens
indefinitely without charges and convictions, authorizing and justifying torture, spying without warrants, and executing US citizens without due process of law.

Moreover, unlike the Clinton, Bush, and Obama regimes, the Reagan administration prosecuted those who broke the law. Assistant Secretary of State Elliott Abrams was convicted, National Security Advisor Robert McFarlane was convicted, Chief of CIA Central American Task Force Alan Fiers was convicted, Clair George, Chief of the CIA’s Division of Covert Operations was convicted. Richard Secord was convicted. National Security Advisor John Poindexter was convicted. Oliver North was convicted. North’s conviction was later overturned, and President George H.W. Bush pardoned others. But the Reagan Administration held its operatives accountable to law. No American President since Reagan has held the government accountable.

Clair George was convicted of lying to congressional committees. Richard Secord was convicted of lying to Congress. John Poindexter was convicted of lying to Congress. Alan Fiers was convicted of withholding information from Congress. Compare these convictions then with James R. Clapper now. President Obama appointed Clapper Director of National Intelligence on June 5, 2010, declaring that Clapper “possesses a quality that I value in all my advisers: a willingness to tell leaders what we need to know even if it’s not what we want to hear.” With this endorsement, Clapper proceeded to lie to Congress under oath, a felony. Clapper was not indicted and prosecuted. He was not even fired or forced to resign. For executive branch officials, perjury is now a dead letter law.

The destruction of the rule of law and accountable government has extended to state and local levels. Police officers no longer “serve and protect” the public. The most dangerous encounter most Americans will ever experience is with police, who brutalize citizens without cause and even shoot them down in their homes and on their streets. A police badge has become a license to kill, and police use it to the hilt. During the Iraq War, more Americans were murdered by police than the military lost troops in combat. And nothing is done about it. The country is again facing elections, and the abuse of US citizens by “their” police is not an issue. Neither are the many illegal interventions by Washington into the internal affairs of other sovereign countries or the unconstitutional spying that violates citizens’ privacy.

The fact that Washington is gearing up for yet another war in the Middle East is not an important issue in the election.

In the US the rule of law, and with it liberty, have been lost. With few exceptions, Americans are too ignorant and unconcerned to do anything about it. The longer the rule of law is set aside, the more difficult it is to reestablish it. Sooner or later the rule of law ceases even as a memory. No candidate in the upcoming election has made the rule of law an issue.

Americans have become a small-minded divided people, ruled by petty hatreds, who are easily set against one another and against other peoples by their rulers.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1NwBJXn Tyler Durden

Gold Fund Manager Laments The Big Payoff “Will Not Be Cause For Celebration”

Dreams don't always come true for TV singing show contestants or gold enthusiasts. As Santiago Capital's Brent Johnson explains, precious metals remain in a long and painful bear market… so why continue to own gold? Simply put, despite all the cries of "you suck" and feelings of loneliness and depression, "if you have done your homework" this will lead to conviction because all the reasons to own gold are still there and are now even more compelling…

Contrarians, by definition, spend most of their time bring wrong "until the moment they are not and the big pay off comes."

 

Brent Johnson explains "you don't get to make the big money and have it be easy…"

 

The Party In The Global Equity Markets Is Winding Down and "Our moment is coming.. and when that happens we can be humble and gracious or pompous rockstars. When this position – which has been so painful for so long – pays off, the urge to say 'I told you so' will be almost impossible to resist… but please don't say it."

"Our winnings are not going to come from the backs of politicians who sold out their constituents in mountains of debt; it's not going to come from the bankers who loaded up their balance sheets with trillions of dollars of derivatives; it's not going to come at the expense of the celebrities in Hollywood or rockstars of New York. Our winnings will come on the backs of innocent people around the world whose prices will rise as their wages fall.. it's going to come from the people who wake up one morning to find their savings have been devalued or bailed-in… it's going to come from the pension funds of teachers and firefighters. The irony is that when gold finally pays off – it will not be a cause for celebration."


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1lMuDrm Tyler Durden

Apple in the Seventies

From the Slope of Hope: It’s time for me to travel to the place I always prefer: way out on a limb.

My Apple credentials are sound. I bought my first Macintosh in early 1984. I worked at Apple headquarters for several years in the late 1980s. When did I buy my first iPhone? The day it came out. First iPad? The day it came out. I even wrote a few books about the Macintosh. And some of you know the videos I’ve done about that Silicon Valley deity, Mr. Steven Paul Jobs. So I don’t have any anti-Apple ax to grind.

Having said all that, I think Apple’s best days are behind it. The fat and happy executive staff, led by the charisma-free Tim Cook, is sitting on top of the most valuable company on the planet. Subtly and slowly, though, Apple has already lost one-quarter of its entire market cap.

Tuesday, of course, is when Apple reports their earnings, after the close. I have no clue about Apple’s fundamentals, but I’ve seen a chart or two in my life, and this long-term chart of Apple looks jumping-up-and-down bearish.

0125-aapl

Looking a bit closer, there is a massive topping pattern which I’ve helpfully shaded in green for you. The strength we had late last week pushed up right back toward all that overhead supply, and early on Monday, I shorted the stock at what I hope is a price I’ll be pleased with.

0125-applepattern

Now here’s the going-out-on-a-limb part: I suspect that Apple is more likely to be down on Wednesday than up. I further think that, in the months ahead, Apple is going to find itself at a place no one dare imagine: in the 70s. I have tinted in area below which shows a suggested target, which just so happens to also close a gap beautifully set before a massive roar higher in the price a couple of years ago.

0125-appletarget

I had some lunatic things to say about oil late in 2014, although I held my tongue about some price projections since they seemed so preposterous. I’m not going to offer Apple this courtesy. I think the 25% drop they’ve seen is going to blossom into a nearly 50% drop. I suspect ol’ Cookie is going to be checking out his ridiculous Apple Watch sooner or later to see when it’s time for him to finally leave and enjoy the vast personal fortune he acquired from Jobs’ genius.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1lMuFiN Tim Knight from Slope of Hope

Gold Price May Lead Gold Mining Stocks – Latest Research

Gold Price May Lead Gold Mining Stocks – Latest Research

Dr Brian Lucey and Dr Fergal O’Connor have just published some interesting research on the correlations of the gold price and gold mining indices.

Gold Bugs Index and Gold Close

In ‘Are Gold Bugs Coherent?’, the academics use wavelet models to surface the relationship between gold miners stock prices and the price of gold. Specifically, they examine the relationship between the gold price and the NYSE ARCA Gold Bugs index of gold miner share prices over a 17 year period using wavelet analysis.

They find that

“that there is little relationship in the short run but some significant and long standing long run relationships and that gold prices appear to lead gold miner stock prices.”

There is now a large body of academic research which shows that gold is a safe haven asset and a hedging instrument and can play a “useful role in reducing a portfolio’s risk.”

This has again been seen in recent weeks with gold having risen by more than 4% year to date, while leading stock indices such as the S&P 500 are down by more than 7%.

The research entitled ‘Are Gold Bugs Coherent?’ can be accessed here

gold bug

LBMA Gold Prices

25 Jan: USD 1,103.70, EUR 1,020.29 and GBP 773.96 per ounce
22 Jan: USD 1,097.65, EUR 1,012.55 and GBP 769.63 per ounce
21 Jan: USD 1,096.80, EUR 1,006.98 and GBP 774.99  per ounce
20 Jan: USD 1,093.20, EUR 999.73 and GBP 771.08 per ounce
19 Jan: USD 1,087.00, EUR 999.77 and GBP 759.79 per ounce

Breaking Gold News and Commentary Today – Click here


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1KB0dPe GoldCore

The “Real” Donald Trump – A Fascinating Interview From 1990

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

In 1990, Donald Trump conducted a lengthy interview with Playboy Magazine. It provides an absolutely fascinating window into the man’s mind, which I suggest everyone read in full. Unexpectedly, I came away with a more informed and nuanced perspective on the man. While it didn’t change my opinion of him as President, I do have a much greater appreciation for Donald Trump as a person, specifically how his mind works and what drives him.

I originally came across this interview after seeing a tweet referencing a 25 year old interview during which Trump expressed admiration for how strongly Chinese authorities cracked down on dissent in Tiananmen Square in 1989. I immediately thought to myself that this would be the perfect fodder to further elucidate the kind of cold, brutal, authoritarian leader Trump undoubtably would be as President.

While that particular quote didn’t disappoint, I decided to read further and came away with many additional observations. I think these observations are worth sharing since I think there’s a very real chance Trump will be elected President within the next ten years. His chances ride on the fact that the current system is terminally corrupt, as well as socially and economically bankrupt. It will crash and burn, whether in slow motion like the past eight years, or very rapidly over the next several. Someone will likely step in to fill this void, and Trump has the personality type and understanding of human nature to possibly propel himself into the position when the timing is right. Is the time right in 2016? Probably not, but a President Trump is far more likely to occur in our lifetimes than many of us want to admit.

So with that out of the way, let me share some of the things I learned from the interview. First, I think Trump is far less materialistic than people presume, which sounds like a contradiction considering he is unquestionably one of the biggest showoffs on planet earth. While this is true, the motivation behind his ostentatious public persona is primarily to further his brand. As he says repeatedly in the interview, it’s all a show. In other words, he claims it’s pure marketing and I believe him.

What motivates Trump isn’t the collection of material things, rather, it’s a constant need to stroke his enormous ego and stoke his narcissism. Life is merely a giant game for Trump. A game in which the winners collect lots of fame and money, and the losers don’t. He doesn’t simply want to win this game, coming out on top is his entire life’s purpose. The idea of not winning isn’t even an option.

So with this in mind, is the Presidency just the ultimate prize for Trump? Does he want it simply because it is one of the few “wins” he has yet to collect? I think so. Deep down, I think Trump can’t truly envision himself as life’s ultimate winner without the Presidency. This is not to say I think Trump isn’t genuine when he says America is going down the toilet. Indeed, he was hitting on many of the exact same themes back in 1990. In fact, it gives you the impression that Trump has thought America was lacking his entire life, precisely because Trump had yet to be named the country’s CEO.

Trump believes in winning, and he thinks he and America are one in the same. In that sense, I genuinely believe that as President he would do what he thinks is best for America. In that sense, he’s not the typical detached, corrupt, greedy, globalist U.S. President we’ve become so accustomed to. This is precisely what his supporters are picking up on and why they love him.

 

From this angle alone, he might actually have the chops to be a very good President. This is because for a man with his disposition, being President might still not be enough of an accomplishment. His ego will require that history remember him not just as a billionaire and President, but as the man who “Made America Great Again,” the ultimate motivator for a man who never rests until he gets what he wants. So it’s true that he really wouldn’t be unduly influenced by billionaires and large corporations if he felt they were getting in the way of his making America great (and himself greater). Those are the positives.

As such, the establishment really is scared because Trump actually is an uncontrollable wildcard. This is certainly bad for them, but it isn’t necessarily good for “we the people.” The problem arises when it comes to Trump’s definition of greatness. From my chair, he doesn’t seem to think liberty, freedom and the Constitution play much of a role. Indeed, you can get a pretty good sense of his definition of “great” by looking at his buildings and the sorts of accomplishments he prides himself on. He loves the shock factor and big expensive toys. He likes them because they impress others and help his brand. There’s more swagger than substance to the things he prioritizes, at least publicly. Indeed, it’s not surprising that the casino business would have a particular appeal to him. It’s a world in which customers indulge themselves in a fantasy until they run out of money or get bored, and by the time they leave, Trump’s bank account is far bigger than it was before. He wins again.

Trump supporters see this and think this is how he’s going to deal with foreign leaders and that this is a good thing. They think that he’ll simply outsmart them. Maybe he will and maybe he won’t, who knows. Personally, I’m far more concerned about how he would deal with domestic dissent.

To that end, I think one thing is clear. I think he’d take George W. Bush’s “you are either with us, or you are with the terrorists” and change it to something like “you are either with me, or you hate America.” In a collapsed economy, this sort of slogan could appeal to a lot of people, and with an outraged public behind him, President Trump has the capacity to be incredibly cruel and vicious to American citizens he think stand in the way of his “Making America Great.”

Without any obvious respect for the Constitution or Bill of Rights, a President Trump could very quickly transform himself into a very dangerous strongman, all the while believing that he is merely doing what is necessary to make America great. This attitude has become painfully clear to me during the campaign as I’ve watched him intentionally stir up anger and hate by demonizing minorities such as Muslims and Mexicans. Do I think it’s possible he doesn’t really stand behind his own hateful statements and is merely telling groups of frustrated people what they want to hear to get elected? Perhaps, but such a willingness tells you a lot about the lengths he would go to win, and shines a light on the things he’s capable of doing in order to solidify and expand his power once he’s won.

Which brings me to the final point. Many of Trump’s personality traits are more admirable, or at least appear less nefarious than I previously thought. Nevertheless, it is extremely crucial to understand that the traits that make someone an incredible showman and billionaire are not the same traits needed in a President to restore a Constitutional Republic. Not that I think that’s high on Trump’s list of priorities in any event.

Now here are some of the more interesting excerpts of the interview. Read the entire thing here.

Then what does all this-the yacht, the bronze tower, the casinos-really mean to you?
Props for the show.

 

And what is the show?
The show is “Trump” and it has sold out performances everywhere. I’ve had fun doing it and will continue to have fun, and I think most people enjoy it.

 

You don’t sound guilty at all.
I do have a feeling of guilt. I’m living well and like it, I know that many other people don’t live particularly well. I do have a social consciousness. I’m setting up a foundation; I give a lot of money away and I think people respect that. The fact that I built this large company by myself working people respect that; but the people who are at high levels don’t like it. They’d like it for themselves.

 

What do you do to stay in touch with your employees?
I inspect the Trump Tower atrium every morning. Walk into it … it’s perfect; everything shines. I go down and raise hell in a nice way all the time because I want everything to be absolutely immaculate. I’m, totally hands-on. I get along great with porters and maids at the Plaza and the Grand Hyatt. I’ve had bright people ask me why I talk to porters and maids. I can’t even believe that question. Those are the people who make it all work …. If they like me, they will work harder … and I pay well.

 

How far are you willing to push adversaries?
I will demand anything I can get. When you’re doing business, you take people to the brink of breaking them without having them break, to the maximum point their heads can handle-without breaking them. That’s the sign of a good businessman: Somebody else would take them fifteen steps beyond their breaking point.

 

Why?
I am very skeptical about people; that’s self-preservation at work. I believe that, unfortunately, people are out for themselves. At this point, it’s to many people’s advantage to like me. Would the phone stop ringing, would these people kissing ass disappear if things were not going well? I enjoy testing friendship …. Everything in life to me is a psychological game, a series of challenges you either meet or don’t. I am always testing people who work for me.

 

How?
I will send people around to my buyers to test their honesty by offering them trips and other things. I’ve been surprised that some people least likely to accept a trip from a contractor did and some of the most likely did not. You can never tell until you test; the human species is interesting in that way. So to me, friendship can be really tested only in bad times. I instinctively mistrust many people. It is not a negative in my life but a positive. Playboy wouldn’t be talking to me today if I weren’t a cynic. So I learned that from Fred, and I owe him a lot. . . . He could have ultimately been a happy guy, but things just went the unhappy way.

 

And the Pope?
Absolutely. Nothing wrong with ego. People need ego, whole nations need ego. I think our country needs more ego, because it is being ripped off so badly by our so-called allies; i.e., Japan, West Germany, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, etc. They have literally outegotized this country, because they rule the greatest money machine ever assembled and it’s sitting on our backs. Their products are better because they have so much subsidy. We Americans are laughed at around the world for losing a hundred and fifty billion dollars year after year, for defending wealthy nations for nothing, nations that would be wiped off the face of the earth in about fifteen minutes if it weren’t for us. Our “allies” are making billions screwing us.

 

You’re opposed to Japanese buying real estate in the U.S.?
I have great respect for the Japanese people and list many of them as great friends. But, hey, if you want to open up a business in Japan, good luck. It’s virtually impossible. But the Japanese can buy our buildings, our Wall Street firms, and there’s virtually no.thing to stop them. In fact, bidding on a building in New York is an act of futility, because the Japanese will pay more than it’s worth just to screw us. They want to own Manhattan. Of course, I shouldn’t even be complaining about it, because I’m one of the big beneficiaries of it. If I ever wanted to sell any of my properties, I’d have a field day. But it’s an embarrassment! I give great credit to the Japanese and their leaders, because they have made our leaders look totally second rate.

 

You have taken out full-page ads in several major newspapers that not only concern U.S. foreign trade but call for the death penalty, too. Why?
Because I hate seeing this country go to hell. We’re laughed at by the rest of the world. In order to bring law and order back into our cities, we need the death penalty and authority given back to the police. I got fifteen thousand positive letters on the death-penalty ad. I got ten negative or slightly negative ones.

 

You believe in an eye for an eye?
When a man or woman cold-bloodedly murders, he or she should pay. It sets an example. Nobody can make the argument that the death penalty isn’t a deterrent. Either it will be brought back swiftly or our society will rot away. It is rotting away.

 

For a man so concerned about our crumbling cities, some would say you’ve done little for crumbling Atlantic City besides pull fifty million dollars a week out of tourists’ pockets.
Elected officials have that responsibility. I would hate to think that people blame me for the problems of the world. Yet people come to me and say, “Why do you allow homelessness in the cities?” as if I control the situation. I am not somebody seeking office.

 

Wait. Doesn’t it seem that with all your influence in Atlantic City you could do more to combat crime and corruption and put something back into the community?
Well, crime and prostitution go up, and Atlantic City administrations are into very deep trouble with the law, and there are lots of problems there, no question about it. But there is a tremendous amount of money going to housing from the profits of the casinos. As somebody who runs hotels, all I can do, when you get right down to it, is run the best places, bring in as much money as possible, which in turn goes out for taxes. I contribute millions a year to various charities. Finally, by law, I’m not allowed to have Governmental influence; but if they passed legislation that allowed me to get more involved, I’d be very happy to do it. In the meantime, I have the most incredible hotels in the world in Atlantic City. The Taj Mahal will be beyond belief. And if I can awaken the government of Atlantic City, I have performed a great service.

 

What were your other impressions of the Soviet Union?
I was very unimpressed….Russia is out of control and the leadership knows it. That’s my problem with Gorbachev. Not a firm enough hand.

 

You mean firm hand as in China?
When the students poured into Tiananmen Square, the Chinese government almost blew it. Then they were vicious, they were horrible, but they put it down with strength. That shows you the power of strength. Our country is right now perceived as weak … as being spit on by the rest of the world—

 

Besides The real-estate deal, you’ve met with top-level Soviet officials to negotiate potential business deals with them; how did they strike you?
Generally, these guys are much tougher and smarter than our representatives. We have people in this country just as smart, but unfortunately, they’re not elected officials. We’re still suffering from a loss of respect that goes back to the Carter Administration, when helicopters were crashing into one another in Iran. That was Carter’s emblem. There he was, being carried off from a race, needing oxygen. I don’t want my President to be carried off a race course. I don’t want my President landing on Austrian soil and falling down the stairs of his airplane. Some of our Presidents have been incredible jerk-offs. We need to be tough.

 

A favorite word of yours, tough. How do you define it?
Tough is being mentally capable of winning battles against an opponent and doing it with a smile. Tough is winning systematically.

 

Sometimes you sound like a Presidential candidate stirring up the voters.
I don’t want the Presidency. I’m going to help a lot of people with my foundation-and for me, the grass isn’t always greener.

 

But if the grass ever did look greener, which political party do you think you’d be more comfortable with?
Well, if I ever ran for office, I’d do better as a Democrat than as a Republican-and that’s not because I’d be more Republican-and that’s not because I’d be more liberal, because I’m conservative. But the working guy would elect me. He likes me. When I walk down the street, those cabbies start yelling out their windows.

 

Another game: What’s the first thing President Trump would do upon entering the Oval Office?
Many things. A toughness of attitude would prevail. I’d throw a tax on every Mercedes-Benz rolling into this country and on all Japanese products, and we’d have wonderful allies again.

 

And how would President Trump handle it?
He would believe very strongly in extreme military strength. He wouldn’t trust anyone. He wouldn’t trust the Russians; he wouldn’t trust our allies; he’d have a huge military arsenal, perfect it, understand it. Part of the problem is that we’re defending some of the wealthiest countries in the world for nothing. . . . We’re being laughed at around the world, defending Japan–

 

You categorically don’t want to be President?
I don’t want to be President. I’m one hundred percent sure. I’d change my mind only if I saw this country continue to go down the tubes.

 

More locally, one of your least favorite political figures was Mayor Ed Koch of New York. You two had a great time going after each other: He called you “piggy, piggy, piggy” and you called him “a moron.” Why do you suppose he lost the election?
He lost his touch for the people. He became arrogant. He not only discarded his friends but was a fool for brutally criticizing them. The corruption was merely a symptom of what had happened to him: He had become extremely nasty, mean spirited and very vicious, an extremely disloyal human being. When his friends like Bess Myerson and others were in trouble, he seemed to automatically abandon them, almost before finding out what they’d done wrong. He could think only about his own ass-not the city’s. That was dumb: The only one who didn’t know his administration was crumbling around him was him. Power corrupts.

 

You probably have more power than Koch did as mayor. And you’re getting more of it all the time. How about power’s corrupting you?
I think power sometimes corrupts-“sometimes” has to be added.

 

You’re involved in so many activities, deals, promotions-in the deep of the night, after the reporters all leave your conferences, are you ever satisfied with what you’ve accomplished?
I’m too superstitious to be satisfied. I don’t dwell on the past. People who do that go right down the tubes. I’m never self-satisfied. Life is what you do while you’re waiting to die. You know, it is all a rather sad situation.

 

Life? Or death?
Both. We’re here and we live our sixty, seventy or eighty years and we’re gone. You win, you win, and in the end, it doesn’t mean a hell of a lot. But it is something to do-to keep you interested.

 

So building that second huge yacht isn’t an act of gaudy excess but another act in the show?
Well, it draws people. It will be the eighth wonder of the world and will create an aura that seems to work. It will cost me two hundred million dollars. But I don’t need it! I could be very happy living in a one-bedroom apartment. I used to live that life. In the early Seventies, I lived in a studio apartment overlooking a water tank.

 

If you were starting over again, in what business would you choose to make your fortune?
Good question …. There’s something about mother earth that’s awfully good, and mother earth is still real estate. With the right financing, you’ve essentially invested no money. Publishing, movies, broadcasting are tougher, and there aren’t too many Rupert Murdochs, Si Newhouses, Robert Maxwells and Punch Sulzbergers. I’ll stick to real estate.

 

You seem very pleasant and charming during interviews, yet you talk constantly about toughness. Do you put on an act for us?
I think everybody has to have some kind of filtering system. I’m very fair and I have had the same people working for me for years. Rarely does anybody leave me. But when somebody tries to sucker-punch me, when they’re after my ass, I push back a hell of a lot harder than I was pushed in the first place. If somebody tries to push me around, he’s going to pay a price. Those people don’t come back for seconds. I don’t like being pushed around or taken advantage of. And that’s one of the problems with our country today. This country is being pushed around by everyone.

 

About your own toughness…
Well, as I said, I study people and in every negotiation, I weigh how tough I should appear. I can be a killer and a nice guy. You have to be everything. You have to be strong. You have to be sweet. You have to be ruthless. And I don’t think any of it can be learned. Either you have it or you don’t. And that is why most kids can get straight As in school but fail in life.

 

As you continue to make more deals, as you accumulate more and more, there’s a central question that arises about Donald Trump: How much is enough?
As long as I enjoy what I’m doing without getting bored or tired … the sky’s the limit.

The big concern as relates to Trump as President would be his strongman type of personality coupled with a cult of personality worship amongst his followers. This worship is something that Trump himself is well aware of, and it makes him all the more dangerous. For example, he recently said the following in Iowa:

Donald Trump boasted Saturday that support for his presidential campaign would not decline even if he shot someone in the middle of a crowded street.

 

“I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,” Trump said at a campaign rally here.

The scary part is, I think he’s right.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/23pvvEn Tyler Durden