June 2016 – Page 219

Hillary’s Lead Over Bernie Sanders Evaporates Ahead Of California Primary

As we reported yesterday citing a former Bill Clinton politcal staffer and advisor, Douglas Schoen, it is looking increasingly likely that Hillary may be replaced by Joe Biden at the Demoratic presidential convention. As the main catalyst, Schoen cited the outcome of the California presidential primary. As he writes, “the inevitability behind Mrs. Clinton’s nomination will be in large measure eviscerated if she loses the June 7 California primary to Bernie Sanders. That could well happen.”

This could indeed happen because according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/ Marist poll, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are now deadlocked in California ahead of next week’s high-stakes primary, raising the prospect of a surprise outcome that would give Mr. Sanders confidence to carry his campaign into the party’s convention next month.

According to the WSJ, Clinton leads the Vermont senator by just 2 percentage points among likely Democratic primary voters, 49% to 47%, well within the survey’s margin of error. The poll signals a closer contest than expected just weeks ago.

As Schoen agrees, the fate of Mr. Sanders’s presidential bid rides heavily on the outcome in California—the last major contest of the primary season and the one that awards the most delegates. Clinton can win enough delegates on June 7, when six states hold nominating contests, to claim the Democratic nomination, without winning the primary in California. She essentially has the nomination, thanks to the support of superdelegates, who can switch their allegiance at any time.

Meanwhile, Sanders has been campaigning in California every day since May 21, hoping to build his vote total to bolster his argument to superdelegates ahead of the July nominating convention that he is the party’s stronger candidate. A win in California could also strengthen Mr. Sanders’s hand in pushing for the party platform to better reflect his liberal agenda.

A Clinton loss in California would cast a long shadow over her campaign as she seeks to unify the Democratic Party after an unexpectedly competitive—and divisive—primary process. In particular, Mrs. Clinton needs to make inroads among the younger voters who have fueled Mr. Sanders’s campaign.

“We are seeing a familiar pattern in what is the last major preconvention collision between Clinton and Sanders,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Age is the story in this California tossup. Sanders inspires younger or first-time voters, and Clinton relies upon those who are older or have participated in the past.”

Among Democratic primary voters age 18 to 29, the poll found, 80% favor Mr. Sanders, while Mrs. Clinton garners almost twice his support among primary voters age 45 and older. Mr. Sanders also outpaces the Democratic front-runner by a wide margin, 72% to 28%, among those voters who would be participating for the first time.

Meanwhile, as The Hill reports, the heat is building up on Hillary to hold a press conference: the reason is that Clinton has maintained radio silence for the past 6 months and it has been 180 days since Clinton’s last open press conference, a fact not lost on the members of the media who cover her, or on Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.

I am getting great credit for my press conference today. Crooked Hillary should be admonished for not having a press conference in 179 days.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 31, 2016

CNN’s Jake Tapper broached the topic with the former secretary of State in an interview on Tuesday afternoon, just hours after Trump held a contentious 40-minute press conference where he berated the media for questioning his donations to veterans. “It’s been something like five or six months since you’ve held an actual press conference,” Tapper said. “Is that something you will remedy soon?”

“I’m sure we will. I was shocked myself that I’ve done nearly 300 interviews [in 2016],” Clinton replied. “I believe that we do, and we should answer questions. Of course I’m going to, in many, many different types of settings.”

One Clinton ally reiterated a common viewpoint among her allies that the media would not treat her fairly if she hold one. “There’s no benefit. It will only hurt her,” the ally said.

The ally said journalists would pepper Clinton with questions about her use of a private email server while serving as secretary of State, why she hasn’t been able to decisively defeat White House rival Bernie Sanders, her likability and other unflattering subjects.

Hoping to put a quick end to the “witch hunt”, one surrogate reverted to the usual excuse, and called the debate over a press conference “a distraction.” However, as judging by the latest poll numbers, increasingly more are seeing through Hillary’s reticence: an unwillingness to address important questions, which may potentially have campaign-ending consequences if the FBI’s criminal probe finds evidence of wrongdoing.

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Florida Ex-Cop Indicted on Manslaughter, Attempted Murder Charges for Killing of Disabled Motorist

Former Palm Beach Gardens police officer Nouman Raja is expected in court today after being indicted on charges of manslaughter and attempted murder by a grand jury for the killing of Corey Jones, a legally armed motorist whose vehicle was disabled, last October.

Initially placed on paid leave, Raja was fired in November. The police union president complained at the time that the termination happened “without getting the facts of the investigation.”

According to the state attorney, who was criticized for sending the case to a grand jury in the first place, Raja was caught on tape because Jones was on the phone with a tow truck operator in a recorded conversation. The officer is heard asking Jones if he was “good” multiple times, before telling him to get his “fucking hands up.”

Investigators say Raja did not identify himself as an officer, and he is also accused of lying to the 911 operator to make it appear Jones, a local musician and housing authority manager, was still armed when Raja shot him. Jones’ last words on the tape were a plea for Raja to “hold on!”

“For him to have said ‘hold on’ like that, something must have happened,” Jones’ brother, Clinton, said at a press conference. “We’ve never had any reason to be scared of any cops, because we’re on the same side as them.”

Raja’s bail has been set at $250,000.

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Libertarian Party Gains Second Sitting State Legislator

The Libertarian Party, in the wake of unprecedented press following the nomination of Gary Johnson and William Weld (both former Republican governors) as their candidates for president and vice president, just won their second seated state legislator.

|||Laura Ebke Facebook

Like the first one, Nevada’s Assemblyman John Moore, Sen. Laura Ebke of Nebraska’s 32nd district, enters as an already seated legislator who switched party allegiance from the Republicans.

The Lincoln Journal-Star reports:

Ebke, who always had identified herself as a Republican whose political philosophy was Libertarian, changed her registration online last week.

“I’m not willing to bend my principles to go along or cast a vote just for the sake of party unity,” she said during a telephone interview.

Ebke was sitting in the back of the room at the Republican state convention in Omaha last month when Ricketts criticized more than a dozen state senators who are Republicans for votes they cast, arguing for the need to elect “platform Republicans” to the nonpartisan Legislature…

Ebke has cast votes to override several of the governor’s vetoes, including his rejection of bills to repeal the death penalty, authorize Nebraska driver’s licenses for young undocumented immigrants who have lawful presence in the United States and grant the right for those young people to acquire professional and occupational licenses to work in the state.

“I agree with the Republican Party on many things and I have many friends in the party,” she said.

“Republicans talk about fiscal responsibility, but they tend to place not such a high emphasis on civil liberties.”

Ebke said the approaching nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s presidential choice affected her decision “maybe a little (because) I can’t imagine myself voting for him.”….Ebke was elected to the Legislature in 2014 and is midway through her first term.

From a Libertarian Party press release on Ebke’s switch, which notes that Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is officially nonpartisan, though sitting members affiliations are generally known:

During her 1-1/2 years in office, Sen. Ebke has introduced a bill to prohibit local governments from having more stringent requirements for gun possession than the state has; co-sponsored a bill to legalize medical marijuana; and co-sponsored a bill to partially repeal asset forfeiture (“policing for profit”).

Sen. Ebke played key a role in advancing each of these bills.

In a letter to her donors to announce her switch, Sen. Ebke said she had become increasingly disillusioned by the GOP.

“My view of conservatism has always been [based on] smaller government, lower taxes, fiscal responsibility, personal responsibility, respect for constitutional rights,” she wrote. “And on the national scene, a strong military, but not an overly aggressive one. In other words, I believe in a constitutionalism which looks to the principles of our founders as a guide.”

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Why an offshore bank may be safer

“Offshore”. It’s practically a dirty word now. The O-word.

The mere concept of “offshore” is automatically associated with criminal activity, tax evasion, and terror financing.

Consider the notion of offshore banking.

The immediate image that comes to mind is some moustache-twirling billionaire tax cheat hiding his ill-gotten gains in a nefarious island bank.

The media crusade over the Panama Papers only reinforces this absurd stereotype.

But the reality is far different than the fiction that’s being peddled.

In the US, the epicenter of the movement against financial privacy and freedom, the banking system has become a pitiful shell of the sturdy pillar it’s supposed to be.

Just think back to 2008.

After years of raking in huge profits as they loaned their depositors’ savings out in the most reckless and irresponsible sub-prime home loans, the banks crashed.

Then they went to the government with hat in hand, telling us the world would come to an end if they didn’t receive a massive rescue package.

Despite nearly $1 trillion in a taxpayer-funded bailout, the biggest bailout of all came from the Federal Reserve.

The Fed spent years conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air and ‘loaning’ it to commercial banks at 0% interest to help them recapitalize.

But in bailing out the banks, the Fed had to expand its own balance sheet so rapidly that they rendered themselves nearly insolvent.

In the meantime the Fed has also had to continue funding the US government’s addiction to debt, which has doubled since the financial crisis and now exceeds 100% of GDP.

The US financial system, therefore, is comprised of an insolvent government, a borderline insolvent central bank, and commercial banks that have a history of making reckless decisions with their depositors’ funds.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, many of the commercial banks themselves are outright insolvent and have had to resort to cash and withdrawal controls to trap their depositors’ funds in a failing system underpinned by negative interest rates.

It’s insane. The world’s most developed banking systems are dominated by debt, insolvency, negative interest, and reckless abandon.

What could possibly go wrong?

Given this ridiculous financial reality, it should be clear that banking overseas has nothing to do with tax evasion.

Tax evasion is pointless and stupid anyhow. If your goal is to reduce what you owe, there are countless ways to legally do so.

For example, instead of committing tax evasion, a US investor who wants to reduce his/her taxes could move to Puerto Rico instead.

Becoming a legal resident of Puerto Rico can eliminate US federal income tax obligations.

Meanwhile, the island has an incentive law reducing the rate of tax on certain investment income to 0%. And you don’t even have to live there year round.

So, Option A is risking jail time by committing tax evasion. Option B is moving to a beachfront paradise for part of the year and legally paying zero tax. Duh.

That’s ultimately the point of going offshore: it gives you more power, more freedom, more control, and more safety.

Banking overseas, for instance, can be MUCH safer.

There are many jurisdictions abroad, like here in Hong Kong for example, where the banks are highly capitalized and maintain strong, conservative cash reserves.

Hong Kong banks are also backed by a deposit insurance program that’s actually well-funded, which itself is backed by a government that has zero net debt and is swimming in cash, plus one of the best-capitalized central banks on the planet.

What a night and day difference.

In the Digital Age, geography is an irrelevant anachronism. It shouldn’t matter if your bank is across the street or across the world.

The most important characteristic of a great bank is its financial stability.

Is it liquid? Is it solvent? Are its lending and investment practices conservative? Is the country’s banking system robust and sustainable?

Most of the West gets fairly poor marks in these key questions.

But if you expand your thinking to the entire world, you’ll find there are much better, safer options abroad.

Don’t buy the popular myth. Having a foreign bank account isn’t about being a tax cheat.

It’s completely and totally legal as long as you follow your country’s disclosure rules.

(US taxpayers—this could include FinCEN Form 114, IRS Form 8938, and/or 1040 Schedule B.)

This is ultimately about keeping your capital safe by holding your savings with a strong, conservative bank in a sustainable, debt-free financial system.

It just makes sense.

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Former JPM FX Salesman Claims He Was “Tossed Overboard In An Attempt To Make JPM Look Clean”

With banks eager to scrub the pervasive FX rigging and manipulation which has been one of the scandals plaguing the banking sector over the past two years, numerous lowly traders had been thrown under the legal bus as the traditional scapegoats meant to deflect attention from company insiders and senior management, many of whom were well aware of the illegal practices taking place. Increasingly more however, refuse to accept this fate. One such person is former JPM FX salesman Patrice Ktorza who claims he was fired to appease regulators after banks were fined $10 billion for conspiring to manipulate currency markets, his lawyer said.

The former executive director is suing the bank for unfair dismissal in a London tribunal. According to Bloomberg, he was “tossed overboard in an attempt to make JPMorgan look clean,” his lawyer, Daphne Romney, said Thursday during questioning of executive Ryan O’Grady. O’Grady said he suspended Ktorza last year for “partially filling” a trade, a practice the bank stopped salespeople from carrying out after a review of its practices in the wake of the scandal. The scandal “reinforced in my mind how big an issue this was,” O’Grady said. “The investigations into the FX business in my mind made it less acceptable that somebody at Ktorza’s level would indeed make what was seemingly a basic error.”

Ktorza, who was paid 290,000 pounds ($419,000), joins a growing list of foreign-exchange traders and salespeople to sue their former employers in recent months, claiming banks were too quick to dismiss workers while attempting to impress regulators. Two former Citigroup Inc. employees, Perry Stimpson and Carly McWilliams, won their cases after a judge found their managers failed to follow proper procedures when dismissing them.

JPMorgan fired back, saying it had recently changed rules so that that only traders, not salesmen, could do “partial fill” trades. Banks “short fill” or “partial fill” an order when they are unable to fulfill the total value of the client’s request at the required rate. JPMorgan salespeople were banned from short filling in an effort to prevent them from taking risks in the wake of the fines, O’Grady said. “Sales staff are not mandated to run risk,” O’Grady said. “This is the exclusive domain of traders on whose trading book risk sits and for which they are ultimately accountable.”

Why Vote for the Lesser of Two Evils When There’s a Third, Non-Evil Candidate?

The Libertarian Party has nominated Gary Johnson and William Weld: two moderate, former Republican governors who opposed runaway government spending while promoting social tolerance while in office.

And yet many people will act as if the Johnson/Weld ticket isn’t even an option. They will urge voters to select “the lesser of two evils,” either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. If you don’t vote for one of these candidates, you are helping the other win, or throwing away your vote, they will say.

This thinking is preposterous, I argue in an op-ed for CNN:

A vote for Johnson isn’t a vote for anyone other than Johnson. Indeed, the Founders never intended to set up a system that continuously produced just two choices, and modern Americans recognize that it’s almost always better to have more choices than fewer. Consumers want the option to shop around for everything from cable companies to health care providers to ice cream flavors. Additional choices provide people with more autonomy and agency to make the decision that fits them, rather than feel morally obligated to engage in a “less-bad” calculus.

This is, coincidentally, the creed of the Libertarian Party: that choice allows people to be happier and more fulfilled, and government interference reduces choice by limiting competition. This belief comes from a place of philosophical consistency among fiscal, foreign and social policy �” a rarity, among politicians. Libertarians are, for instance, as uncomfortable with the government telling them who they can marry as they are with the government telling them who they can pay to Uber them around town.

If voters aren’t in love with this philosophy, or for whatever reason don’t think Johnson is their man, they are free to vote for someone else, including the presumptive major-party candidates. But voters who overlook Johnson as a viable option just because they’ve bought into lesser-of-two-evils urgency need a reality check.

For Reason’s full coverage of the Johnson candidacy, go here.

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Europe Braces for More Jihadist Attacks: “Another Attempted Attack Is Almost Certain”

Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

Sports stadiums and big music events are especially vulnerable: "This is where you put a small town into a small area for a couple of hours." — Neil Basu, deputy assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, London.
"We know that the Islamic State has the European Championship in its sights." — Hans-Georg Maaßen, head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency.
According to Patrick Calvar, head of the France's domestic intelligence agency, at least 645 French nationals or residents, including 245 women, are currently with the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. Another 200 individuals are "in transit," either on their way to Syria or returning to France. Around 244 jihadists have already returned to France.
British police chiefs are struggling to recruit enough officers who are willing to carry a firearm, because many fear they will be treated as criminal suspects if they use their weapon in the line of duty.

European security officials are bracing for potential jihadist attacks at public venues across Europe this summer.

In France, officials are preparing for possible attacks against the European Football Championships. The games, which start on June 10, comprise 51 matches involving 24 teams playing in 10 host cities across the country.

Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said that more than 90,000 security personnel will be on hand to protect the 2.5 million spectators expected to attend the games, as well as the hundreds of thousands more who will watch the matches on big screens in so-called "fan zones" in major cities.

Patrick Calvar, the head of the France's domestic intelligence agency (Direction générale de la sécurité intérieure, DGSI), warned: "We know that the Islamic State is planning new attacks in France." He added:

"We risk being confronted with a new form of attack: a terrorist campaign characterized by placing explosive devices in places where large crowds are gathered, and repeating this type of action to create a climate of panic."

According to Calvar, at least 645 French nationals or residents, including 245 women, are currently with the Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria and Iraq. Another 200 individuals are "in transit," either on their way to the Middle East or returning to France. Around 244 jihadists have already returned to France, and another 818 people have "demonstrated their intention to go to Syria."

The Stade de France, located in a Paris suburb, was attacked by three Islamic State suicide bombers in November 2015. The stadium will be hosting games during the UEFA Euro 2016 football championships (June 10 – July 10, 2016), and French officials are preparing for possible jihadist attacks. (Image source: Wikimedia Commons/Liondartois)

Calvar's concerns have been echoed by Hans-Georg Maaßen, the head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency (Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, BfV). In an interview with Rheinische Post, Maaßen said: "We know that the Islamic State has the European Championship in its sights."

On May 29, British media quoted Belgian security sources as saying they had discovered an Islamic State plot to attack British football fans in the southern French city of Marseille when England plays Russia on June 11. The plans were reportedly discovered on a laptop used by Salah Abdeslam, a Belgian-born French national of Moroccan descent who is thought to be the mastermind of the November 2015 terrorist attacks on Paris which left 130 dead.

The laptop is said to have contained information about a plot to kill large numbers of British fans using assault rifles, suicide bombers and possibly even drones armed with chemical weapons. The laptop contained photos and references to Marseille's historic Old Port, where tens of thousands of football fans are expected to gather at the many bars and restaurants in the area.

Meanwhile, French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve also announced that more than 23,000 police will be deployed to protect the Tour de France, the world's premier bicycle race, which takes place from July 2 to 24.

Teams of special operations forces (Groupe d'intervention de la Gendarmerie Nationale, GIGN) will guard riders and an estimated 12 million spectators along a route that covers 3,500 kilometers (2,180 miles). "Everyone understands that this year the Tour de France is taking place in a particular context," Cazeneuve said. He added: "The terrorist threat remains very high."

In Poland, officials are preparing for possible jihadist attacks against the Catholic Church's World Youth Day, which is expected to draw 2.5 million to Krakow from July 26 to 31. Poland will impose border controls at all of its national borders from July 4 to August 2.

In Britain, music festivals, big sports venues and nightclubs have been placed on "high alert" for potential jihadist attacks, according to a senior anti-terrorism officer interviewed by the Sunday Times.

Neil Basu, the deputy assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said that crowded places — including Glastonbury, billed as the world's largest music festival, which will draw 135,000 people to Somerset from June 22 to 26 — are a major concern for police this summer. Basu warned:

"These people are perfectly happy to target civilians with the maximum terror impact. Crowded places were always a concern for us, but now they are right at the top of the agenda."

Basu said that sports stadiums and big music events are especially vulnerable: "This is where you put a small town into a small area for a couple of hours."

Police in rural communities in Britain that host large summer festivals are warning that they could be "sitting ducks" in the face of a jihadist attack as they wait for armed backup to arrive from many miles away.

In an interview with the BBC, John Apter, the head of the Hampshire and Isle of Wight Police Federation, said:

"Being realistic, if a firearms unit was coming from the middle of the county you are still talking about 30 miles away — you are not talking about a few minutes. There would be an understandable delay. If a firearms unit is the other side of the county they could be 70 miles away so you are talking a significant distance. So the only officers that you have available are unarmed and vulnerable officers and they are the officers that are saying to me that in a terrorist situation they would be sitting ducks."

Most police in Britain are unarmed. According to Deputy Chief Constable Simon Chesterman, the UK's top firearms officer, British police chiefs are struggling to recruit enough officers who are willing to carry a firearm, because many fear they will be treated as criminal suspects if they use their weapon in the line of duty.

Senior British security officials estimate that the UK needs an extra 1,500 armed officers to tackle jihadist attacks such as those carried out in Paris. Because half of the recruits will not make it through the rigorous training, however, 3,000 volunteers are needed to come forward.

Che Donald of the Police Federation — which represents the 5,647 officers throughout Britain who currently carry firearms — told the Guardian that while major cities such as London are sufficiently protected, other large towns and cities are not: "Currently there are not enough firearms officers who could deal with an incident in quite a lot of areas of Britain."

In Brussels, Manuel Navarrete Paniagua, the head of the European Counter Terrorism Centre at the European police agency Europol, warned Members of the European Parliament that terrorist cells in Europe are stockpiling weapons and explosives for future attacks:

"We have some information reported by the member states that terrorists groups are trying to establish large clandestine stockpiles of explosives in the European Union to be used eventually in large scale home attacks."

Paniagua added that police had foiled more than 200 terrorist attacks in the EU in 2015. A total of 151 people were killed and more than 360 injured during terrorist attacks in the EU in 2015. More than 1,000 people were arrested for terrorist-related crimes.

In an interview with Time magazine, Europol director Rob Wainwright revealed that "several hundred" battle-trained European jihadists are probably plotting new attacks. He said that his agency is working on 50 ongoing terrorist investigations:

"This is the highest terrorist threat we have faced in Europe since the days of 9/11. We have 5,000 Europeans who have been radicalized by the Islamic State and have traveled to Syria and Iraq and engaged in conflict experience. We suspect that about one-third of them have come back: That is our best guess. We don't know for sure…

"Our real concern is that there are other networks, either in Europe already, or who are being trained in Syria for further action. We know that the Islamic State last year took a strategic decision to establish an external operations command, a division to plan exactly the kind of attacks we have now seen. We think that they are still active and planning to do that. The threat is alive and current. Another attempted attack is almost certain. Whether it gets through depends of course. I am concerned about the Islamic State's clearly expressed desire for the spectacular."

On May 31, the U.S. State Department issued a travel alert for Europe this summer:

"We are alerting U.S. citizens to the risk of potential terrorist attacks throughout Europe, targeting major events, tourist sites, restaurants, commercial centers and transportation. The large number of tourists visiting Europe in the summer months will present greater targets for terrorists planning attacks in public locations, especially at large events."

The travel alert urges vigilance when in public places or using mass transportation, and avoiding crowded places.

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Oil Jumps After DOE Reports Bigger Than Expected Inventory Draws, 19th Weekly Production Cut

Following last night's surprise build of 2.35mm barrels reported by API (against expectations of a 2.5mm draw), DOE reported inventory draws across the board. While the headline crude draw of 1.36mm barrels was below expectations of -2.5mm, it was way better than API. Cushing saw a bigger than expected draw of 704k and both gasoline and distillates draws were bigger than expected. This is the seventh week in a row of Distillate draws. Crude production fell for the 19th wek in a row to its lowest since Sept 2014.

API

Crude +2.35mm (-2.5mm exp)
Cushing -1.1mm (-500k exp)
Gasoline -1.48mm
Distillates -1.15mm

DOE

Crude -1.36mm (-2.5mm exp – range from -6.42mm to 0)
Cushing -704k (-500k exp)
Gasoline -1.49mm (-350k exp)
Distillates -1.25mm (1mm exp)

The 7th weekly distillate draw in a row and the entire complex saw inventory draws…

And production dropped for the 19th week in a row…

And crude spiked higher…

“Considering the rally we saw yesterday was related to hopes for a supply deal this is a bit of a slap in the face and we are seeing some weakness coming in,” says Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen. “Comments from Draghi are also creating a bit of volatility in the euro/dollar that is also impacting oil prices”

“Oil has moved to the downside, but not broken any technical levels and is still in a tight range — we are now waiting to see if the OPEC press conference or inventory data will change that”

“WTI focus is on $48, if we break below that we could see renewed weakness down to $45”

Charts: Bloomberg