Global PPT Swings From “Easing Actions Are Backfiring” To Double Central Bank Bazookas In 3 Days

Sunday evening, as the world watched the fallout from what "Remin"-ers said was the end of the world, The BIS warned that central bank 'easing' actions "have started to backfire" and explained what little could be achieved with further stimulus…

"Monetary policy is running out of room for maneuver," said Hyun Song Shin, head of research at the BIS, in an interview.

 

“It is not clear how much further stimulus of the real economy can be achieved using monetary-policy tools alone without inviting unwanted distortions.”

Three days later, first The Bank of England and then the European Central Bank both unleashed fresh bazookas as The PPT to save the world swung into action to rescue stocks and the all-important global wealth effect. Yet again – no consequences for anything will be allowed…

So screw the distortions…

 

And bonds have rallied (though notably Bunds and thus Treasuries have tumbled since ECB announced going off-key withg its bond buying)…

 

Bond Futures show the divergence clearer…

 

Finally, let's not forget where the world's central bankers were located on Friday morning when they announced the barrage of monetary policy responses they would unleash in the aftermath of Brexit to soothe global capital markets: the 18th floor of the BIS tower.

So you will please excuse us if we ignore this latest annual rant by the BIS against the policies implemented by the BIS' very own board of directors. If anything, we would expect much more of the same failed policies; we certainly will expect even louder and more dire warnings from the BIS one year from today when everything else that central banks unveil between now and June 2017 is implemented, and fails to do anything but keep global equity markets propped up "whatever it takes."

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This Is How Venezuelan Truckers Avoid Looters

You know it's bad in the socialist utopia when…

Venezuelan trucks – afraid of looting – now carry "Not Transporting Food" signs…

h/t @AKurmanaev

Who can blame them – no one wants the money anymore, it's worthless – as many food trucks now require armed guards to keep them safe

With delivery trucks under constant attack, the nation’s food is now transported under armed guard. Soldiers stand watch over bakeries. The police fire rubber bullets at desperate mobs storming grocery stores, pharmacies and butcher shops. A 4-year-old girl was shot to death as street gangs fought over food.

 

Venezuela is convulsing from hunger.

 

Hundreds of people here in the city of Cumaná, home to one of the region’s independence heroes, marched on a supermarket in recent days, screaming for food. They forced open a large metal gate and poured inside. They snatched water, flour, cornmeal, salt, sugar, potatoes, anything they could find, leaving behind only broken freezers and overturned shelves.

Just like Venezuela, our society is rotting too. As we have warned before, the exact same things that are happening down there right now are coming here too. It is just a matter of time.

There are all sorts of signs that the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted in the United States is starting to crumble as well.

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Federal Criminal Justice Reform May Fail, and Everybody’s Blaming Everybody Else

Sen. Dick DurbinIt’s not clear whether lawmakers in both parties are looking to deflect blame or looking to shame other lawmakers into action (or both—those aren’t contradictory goals), but it looks like the Sentencing and Reform Act may be on the ropes.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), told RealClearPolitics that the legislation, which came together with a lot of compromising and has been significantly watered down already, has stalled. He can’t foresee anything happening with the legislation prior to July 15, after which the Senate will be on a break until after Labor Day, and then everything is going to be all about the election.

The Sentencing and Reform Act modestly updates federal mandatory minimum sentences to make them less brutal in non-violent drug cases and allows federal judges to invoke “safety valve” exceptions to sentence less than the mandatory minimum in certain cases. Probably the most important component of the law is that it would make the Fair Sentencing Act, which lowered the mandatory minimums for crack cocaine-related crimes to those of powder cocaine, retroactive. According to Families Against Mandatory Minimums (FAMM) this could help somewhere around 5,800 people currently serving sentences in federal prison. You can read FAMM’s analysis of what’s good and bad about the current incarnation of the Sentencing and Reform Act here.

So thousands of prisoners could be stuck serving outdated sentences for cocaine crimes that no longer even apply if this law is not passed. In response to frustration that the bill isn’t going anywhere there’s a chain of blaming that weaves throughout RealClearPoltics’ report:

  • Grassley merely says he’s “disappointed” because he worked hard to get more Republicans on board supporting the law.
  • Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who wrote the bill, blames Republicans, particularly Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) for offering him “little to no hope” that the legislation would move forward. (He is undoubtedly also referring to conservatives like Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton.)
  • Sen. John Corbyn (R-Texas) blames the House of Representatives for not moving more quickly, which he said would have created “momentum” in the Senate for passing the law.
  • Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) says the refusal to add reform to mens rea is holding back the legislation. “Mens rea” is the legal concept that convicting a person of a crime should require proving that they had criminal intent to do so. Not all federal laws have this mens rea requirement, and some Republicans want to add it. This has angered some Democrats and the Department of Justice because they believe it would make it harder to convict people (or more accurately, to force settlements) in white-collar criminal cases or cases of corporate misconduct.
  • Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) blames the Koch brothers for helping push the mens rea reform, calling it a “fatal poison pill.” Cornyn, however, pointed out that the current Senate bill does not even contain this reform. There are concerns that it will be attached later on.

Both Cornyn and Durbin believe they can still get something passed under the next administration regardless of which party rules the Senate. But we should be concerned about how this massive populist fracture could affect the House vote. We’re having a new revival of tough on crime tactics from the right (which Donald Trump thoroughly supports). And we’re seeing on the left a desire to punish those “evil” corporations that’s so strong they’re willing to abandon due process to make it happen. This is an election that is heavily revolving around punishing one’s perceived “enemies.” Criminal justice reform pushes may face some significant challenges in the future.

Related: Weldon Angelos, recently freed from federal incarceration for marijuana crimes, is now trying to lobby Congress to pass the Reform Act.

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Why It’s Going to Be All About Immigration This November After the DAPA Ruling: New at Reason

On trade, the two parties are trying to beat each other to the protectionist punch. But on immigration, the Supreme Court’s split DAPA decision will only widen the gapSC Justice Dolls between the two parties making it the single most important wedge issue come November, notes Reason Foundation Senior Analyst Shikha Dalmia. It’s going to be all about the base (Meghan Trainor anyone?) as:

Both candidates will use the issue to mobilize their base—Hillary Clinton will target Latinos, because they are most affected by DAPA, and Donald Trump the white working class, because they are the most incensed about it. This election will degenerate into a full-blown game of identity politics—or what in pre-modern parlance used to be called tribal warfare. This is precisely what America with its fancy Constitution and grant of individual—not group—rights was supposed to avoid.

View this article.

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Cleveland Takes Out $50 Million “Protest Insurance” Policy For RNC

Cleveland PDCleveland’s Board of Control voted — reportedly “without discussion,” according to Cleveland.com — to approve the $9.5 million purchase of a $50 million “protest” insurance policy from AON Risk Services Northeast, to protect the city from claims related to its hosting of the Republican National Convention (RNC) from July 18-21. 

The move increases the city’s coverage by a factor of five, having already approved spending $1.5 million on an insurance policy last March, a figure similar to the $1.7 million spent on insurance by the city of Tampa when hosting the 2012 RNC. The substantial increase in Cleveland’s policy was motivated by a study with included a poll of 40 insurance companies. Cleveland’s Finance Director Sharon Dumas said, “They analyzed the national trend of conflicts and the risks associated with the convention, and we concurred.”

For a while at least, the fearful specter haunting this year’s RNC was the possibility floated by Trump that there would be riots in the event of a brokered convention which denied him the nomination. But now that Trump has the nomination mathematically clinched, the growing concern centers on potential clashes between Trump’s sometimes punchy supporters, as well as anti-Trump supporters (who have on occasion expressed themselves violently already), the neo-Nazis who have pledged to attend, and other assorted representatives of the American electorate. 

The city intends to have the fee spent on the insurance policy reimbursed by the federal grant which allocates $50 million for convention-related security spending. With upwards of 50,000 people expected to descend on the city, Cleveland.com estimates that approximately $5.6 million has been spent on “convention-related supplies and equipment, including vehicles, motorcycles, ‘personal protective’ riot gear, steel fencing and bicycles.”

Rampant misconduct by the Cleveland PD led to a consent decree and federal monitor being imposed on the department in May 2015, making Cleveland the first city to host a major political convention while under such conditions. To provide security for the RNC, over 3,500 officers from outside the greater Cleveland area are expected to be hired to assist the Cleveland PD, and the added “protest insurance” also covers the out-of-towners and their equipment, as well as public property (city employees are property are insured by the city itself).

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‘Ignorant Masses’ Warn ‘Elites’ – “Go Ahead, Rise Up… But Be Careful What You Wish For”

Via CommunityConservatives.com,

And so it’s on…

James Traub, at Foreign Policy.com, has called for the “elites to rise up against the ignorant masses.”

 

 

In a spectacular display of the very ignorance against which he issues his call to arms, Traub shows how thoroughly infected the establishment is with their group-think.  God forbid the ‘fist shaking’ rabble would actually think for themselves and effect an “utter repudiation of the bankers and economists and Western heads of state who warned voters against the dangers of a split with the European Union.”  If there was a miscalculation on the part of David Cameron, it was “how utterly he misjudged his own people[‘s ability to think for themselves].”

Rise up against the ignorant masses? Be careful what you wish for, Mr. Traub… Your intellectual nakedness just might end up on full, public display.

The Foundational Issue: The Most Significant Unit of Society

Traub shows himself ignorant of both British and American history when he concludes: “[M]aybe we have become so inclined to celebrate the authenticity of all personal conviction that it is now elitist to believe in reason, expertise, and the lessons of history.”

Philosophically, ‘Scottish Common Sense Realism’ provides a framework for understanding how someone’s thinking would begin with ‘personal conviction’.  This framework lies at the heart of the thinking of authors like John Locke, on whom Thomas Jefferson depended heavily when writing the Declaration of Independence.

Locke’s philosophy of government and economics expresses this framework and stands in stark contrast to that of Thomas Hobbes. Between the two of them we can drive the difference down to a single question: What is the most significant unit of society?  The answer for those who would follow Hobbes is the State.  For those who would follow Locke it would be the individual.

Money and Monetary Policy: The Scaffolding of Society

At the heart of debates over economics, then, lies the matter of money.  If you are inclined to build on Hobbes’ premises, money is a tool of the State for ordering the affairs of society.  If you build on Locke’s foundation, money is a utility contrived first by individuals to facilitate commerce.  If we revisit the debate between Keynesian and Austrian economics, these two presumptions about the nature of money animate each philosophy.  Keynes presumed an essentially Progressive, statist understanding of human government.  His prescriptions for monetary policy follow quite logically.

The problem with Keynesian economics at this point in history (which Traub at least recognizes to be singular) is he could not have foreseen either the computer or how it has changed banking on the one hand and supply-chain management on the other.  Neither could he have entertained the deployment of massive amounts of capital to essentially speculative financial products – most of which would have been illegal in his time.  These two things have conspired to elevate what Keynes called the “Zero Level Boundary” to a point above zero where money has been made so cheap that the actual creation of new wealth (by improving things) cannot compete with speculation and stock buy-backs for available capital.  Or in other words: when the chips are free, who wouldn't gamble?

But putting that otherwise necessary debate aside, Traub believes the elites are on the side of Madame History, so let’s consult with her.

The First and Second Bishops Wars (late 1630s – early 1640s) revolved around church order and leadership.  Today it is hard to appreciate the degree to which social order broadly speaking depended on church order in this time.  Charles I tried to enforce ecclesiastical uniformity throughout his kingdom, but the Scots were not having it.  Charles assembled an army to impose his order despite difficulty raising the needed money.  The First Bishops War resulted in further negotiations.  The resulting repudiation of Anglican order resulted in the calling of a Parliament, which subsequently demanded redress for both ecclesiastical and economic (tax) grievances.

Charles responded by dissolving Parliament.  This time, to raise the needed funds to pay his soldiers, he confiscated the gold held in the Royal Mint as a forced loan.  This gold did not belong to the Crown but to English merchants.  While the loans were paid back, as a result of this monetary impunity merchants began depositing their gold with trusted goldsmiths.  They received a receipt in return.

These receipts then began to circulate in place of the gold as a medium of exchange for goods and services.  The goldsmiths also realized that not all receipts would be presented for redemption at once and began issuing ‘extra’ receipts, lending them out at interest.  ‘Fractional reserve banking’ was born and these receipts became a forerunner to paper money (e.g. the Federal Reserve Note).

There are two things about this history which are instructive for us today: The first is the confiscation of the money supply by a ‘sovereign’ to enforce his preferred order on society.  Those who understand Hobbes’ philosophy also understand that a ‘sovereign’ need not be a monarch.  A bureaucracy, or an assemblage of them such as the European Union, can wield the power of a sovereign just as can a monarch and its palace. And that bureaucratic sovereign can rule with the same impunity which eventually drove matters to the English Civil Wars. But that impunity is not possible without control of the money supply. Second, this history clearly validates the premise that money is (and always will be) first a utility contrived by individuals to engage in everyday commerce.

It also exposes the underlying problem of monetary policy we face today: It should be clear that those (Traub and his elites) who espouse a Hobbesian philosophy of government would view money as a tool of the State.  Too bad history is not on their side.  And those Traub so artfully calls ignorant ‘fist shakers’ – well, they just want their money back.

Money and ‘Globalization’

Traub believes ‘globalization’ to be the root of the problem and caricatures the ‘fist shakers’ as older, xenophobic rabble pining for the cultural homogeneity of the past. This is a convenient straw man, as it does not account for the underlying stream of Scottish Common Sense Realism that continues to animate the thinking of ordinary people and, rather inconveniently, undermines the superiority complex of the elites.

The arguments for globalization generally claim a net economic gain for ‘free trade’ agreements.  But let’s look at the underlying data: First, these claims require that we treat all jobs alike.  For those who work in close proximity to the money supply – controlled as it is by what I will call (deliberately evoking echoes of Dwight Eisenhower) the ‘political/financial complex’ – a service-sector job and a manufacturing job are counted the same.  But when counted separately we see a dramatic shift away from manufacturing jobs toward lower paying, service-sector jobs.  The problems with this are both social and economic.

Economically, we become further and further removed from the creation of wealth.  A manufacturing job is, by definition, a job in which raw materials – which by themselves would be useless – are turned into useful things.  The difference between the value of that useful thing and the value of the underlying raw materials is what wealth is.  A service sector job, on the other hand, merely provides a needed or desired service to a consumer and does not directly contribute to the creation of wealth.

As a result, socially, we become an economy of mansions, butlers and maids.  What is especially maddening about this is it reflects the very income inequality we constantly hear about from the elites.  But if equality were really what the elites were after, they would insist we bring the regular population back into closer proximity to the creation of wealth.

But this is not what is being demanded; the rabble is required to assent to the redistributionist wisdom of the elites who view government, and as a result money, in a way that is fundamentally opposite to the traditions of individual freedom which form the foundation of what it means to be American.  The elites are fundamentally demanding sovereign control over the social order.  Just as did King Charles I.

And the ‘fist shakers’ are saying no.  Just as did the Scots and the English merchants after them.

Money and the ‘Fabrication of Reality’

Traub’s claim that the ‘nativist’ forces on the right – both on the matter of Brexit and here in the United States – are ‘fabricating reality’ is especially rich.  The British population was apparently subject to lies about the dangers of immigration.  Yet in Germany, a citizens’ group is using Google Maps to tag by location the instances of sexual crimes reported as being committed by migrants from the Middle East.  With other parts of the ‘elite’ telling us that women claiming sexual abuse should be believed, Traub and his tribe have some explaining to do: Who, it might be asked, is doing the ‘fabricating’?

And that question only gets more pressing when we look at economic series here in the U.S..  Starting with unemployment: In the late 1970s the U.S. Congress was faced with the hot potato of high unemployment.  Instead of making tough fiscal choices to keep the government from consuming resources which would have been more efficiently deployed by the private sector, they tossed the hot potato over to the Federal Reserve.  The Humphrey-Hawkins Act of 1977 added “full employment” to the Federal Reserve’s original mandate of consumer price stability.

Now if we were to return to the calculation methodology for unemployment prior to the passage of Humphrey-Hawkins, and then plug in the data available from then until now, the utter failure of the Fed to foster full employment would become painfully obvious.  But this would also mean Congress would have to come to terms with a simple fact: the Federal Reserve does not have – and has never had – the necessary tools to foster full employment.  This has always been about Congress hiding from its fiscal responsibilities.  And the ‘reality’ of employment in America has been ‘fabricated’ ever since by changing the calculation methodologies to hide the truth.  Again, it must be asked, who is doing to fabricating?

Then we move to inflation. In the early 1990s the Clinton administration and the Republican Congress led by Newt Gingrich were faced – again – with having to make tough fiscal choices principally to keep Social Security solvent.  And, again, they copped out.  This time they decided to change the manner in which the Consumer Price Index was calculated in order to suppress the growth of government benefits and the costs of borrowing.  It is important here to understand that interest rates are a function of the rate of inflation, which is reported as the Consumer Price Index.  While that might seem arcane, the following is not: No one refinances a debt at a higher interest rate.

So, having copped out on making tough fiscal choices, Clinton-Gingrich sent us down an unsustainable path of borrowing to the point where the United States Treasury, after paying for government programs, does not have enough money to even make the ‘coupon payments’ (also known as interest) on its bonds, to say nothing of redeeming the maturing bonds – the very textbook definition of ‘bankrupt’.  As a result, the reported rate of inflation has to be ‘fabricated’ to support ever-lower interest rates and the ‘debt ceiling’ constantly raised to enable serial refinancing of the national debt.

Thus something as fundamental to consumer prices as rent – which is rising at around eight percent a year – is not counted in the CPI.  Prices such as food and energy – as if the consumer is not impacted by these either – are also not counted.  The ‘experts’ Traub thinks so highly of tell us this is because of the ‘volatility’ of these prices.  Yet even a rudimentary understanding of economics is enough to know that this same volatility is exactly the data which should be warning us of a problem with monetary policy.  But Congress does not want to hear the truth, and so the elites must ‘fabricate reality’.

Be Careful What You Wish For

Traub’s call is for the ‘elites’ to rise up against the ‘ignorant masses’.  Yes, indeed, please do.  But be careful what you wish for.  You just might discover that we are having the very same argument had between Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton at the beginning of the Republic.  Consider the following comment from Jefferson, especially in light of the last financial crisis and its wave of foreclosures:

If the American People ever allow the banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. The issuing power of money should be taken from the bankers and restored to Congress and the people to whom it belongs. I sincerely believe the banking institutions having the issuing power of money are more dangerous to liberty than standing armies.

What is happening today has been brewing for a long time.  The elites will be exposed for their fabrication of reality and the Scottish Common Sense Realism that forms the philosophical foundation of the American idea of self-government will be vindicated.  The British have struck the first blow in an epic battle that will return us to sound money and the creation of vast amounts of new wealth – and eventually to freedom itself over debt slavery.

And it will be this return to creating wealth measured by sound money that will return us to an economy where that wealth is broadly and justly enjoyed by a thriving and growing middle class who are actually making things again.

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Feds Return $29,500 They Stole From a Maryland Dairy Farmer

When the IRS cleaned out his bank account in 2012, Maryland dairy farmer Randy Sowers told a congressional subcommittee last year, “I was really taken aback by that. I couldn’t believe…they would just come in and take my money with no prior notice.” But such was standard practice in so-called structuring cases, where the government suspected people had deposited money in amounts less than $10,000 to avoid a federal reporting requirement. It did not matter if, as in Sowers’ case, the money came from legitimate sources and there was no evidence of any other illegal activity, since structuring itself is a crime. That made no sense to Sowers. “I thought the government was supposed to protect me,” he said. “I didn’t think they were supposed to come out and try to put me out of business…I think the government ought to give my money back.” Yesterday the government finally agreed to do just that, a development that opens the door to righting hundreds of similar wrongs.

In October 2014, responding to negative publicity surrounding forfeiture cases like this, the IRS said it would no longer seize money from people whose only crime consisted of making deposits or withdrawals that the government deemed suspiciously small. The Justice Department announced a similar policy five months later. But the policy change came too late for Sowers, who ran afoul of the IRS because of what he describes as an attempt to avoid extra paperwork related to the cash he and his wife, Karen, took in at farmers markets. “My wife went to the bank one day, and she had $12,000 in cash because we do a festival,” Sowers testified. “So we had a little bit of extra cash that week. And when she went to deposit it, the teller told her, ‘Well, next time, just keep it under $10,000, and I don’t have to fill out a form.’ So that is what she did.” The honest, hardworking, and otherwise law-abiding couple did not realize that courtesy was a felony.

The government, which conceded the money was legally earned, seized $63,000 but eventually agreed to return about $33,000 of it. Sowers testified that the federal prosecutor handling the case initially seemed inclined to return more than that, but his attitude changed after Sowers told his story to the Baltimore City Paper. Something similar happened in the structuring-related forfeiture case involving North Carolina convenience store owner Lyndon McLellan, who nevetheless persevered and ultimately won. Like McLellan, Sowers had help from the Institute for Justice, which is asking the Justice Department to apply the new guidelines for structuring cases to forfeitures initiated prior to the change.

I.J. filed a petition on Randy and Karen Sowers’ behalf last July, noting that “the government has never even alleged that Randy and Karen did anything unlawful,” aside from making deposits of less than $10,000. The petition described the couple’s agreement to let the government keep $29,500 of their money as accepting “an offer they could not afford to refuse” and cited congressional criticism of the case. The petition was supported by nine members of the House subcommittee that heard Sowers’ testimony. At the same hearing, they noted, IRS Commissioner John Koskinen had testified that “anyone who…was not engaged in processing and laundering illegally gained funds who ended up stuck in the system…deserve[s] an apology.” If so, I.J. argued, how can the government let such injustices stand?  “If it would be wrong to take the money today,” I.J. attorney Robert Everett Johnson said in a February 16 letter to Attorney General Loretta Lynch, “it is equally wrong to keep it.” Apparently Lynch agreed, or at least worried that most people would draw that conclusion.

Johnson thinks the decision bodes well for other people whose money was taken in similar circumstances. “If the IRS and Justice Department are willing to do the right thing for Randy, there is no reason why they should not do the same for hundreds of other property owners in exactly the same situation,” he said.

“This is exactly what we wanted,” Randy Sowers said. “I hope they give other people’s money back. And beyond that, I just hope they quit taking people’s money.” 

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If Free Trade is Rape as Trump Says, Then He is Leading the Party of Rape

Donald Trump lit into Hillary Clinton this week for her support of NAFTA and other trade deals her husband pushed as president. But whatever headaches he creates forTrump Hands her are minor compared to the migraines he is going to cause his own party. That’s because Hillary had very little to do with these deals and the Republican Party a great deal. Without the GOP’s help, Bill Clinton would never have been able to get NAFTA through and arguably become the most trade friendly president – Democratic or Republican – in the last half a century. That was both the GOP’s and Clinton’s finest hour.

But this rare moment of bipartisanship that didn’t actually screw the country is now being compared to “rape” by Trump. Hillary may be married to an alleged rapist. But if Trump is right, then his party will need to explain to the country why it joined in Bill’s “rape.”

So the GOP has a choice, I note, in my column in The Week. Repudiate Trump or repudiate its trade principles and legacy.

Its choice is clear.

Go here to read the full article.

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