While yesterday’s GDP report was an undisputed disappointment, printing at 1.2% or less than half the 2.5% expected following dramatic historical data revisions, an even more troubling finding emerged when looking at the annual growth rate of GDP.  This is how Deutsche Bank’s Dominic Konstam summarized what we showed yesterday: 

The latest GDP release favors our hypothesis of an imminent endogenous labor market slowdown over a more optimistic scenario in which productivity will replace employment as the engine for growth. With real GDP growing at just 1.2%, there is little evidence that productivity is ready to do the heavy lifting. We are particularly concerned because annual nominal growth has slowed to 2.4%, essentially a cyclical trough. 

He was looking at the following chart (which as the BEA admitted yesterday, may be revised even lower in coming quarters).

However, as it turns out, that was not even the biggest risk. Recall that even as overall GDP rose a paltry 1.2%, somehow the consumer-driven portion of this number soared, with Personal Consumption Expenditures surging at an annualized 2.8% rate, nearly triple that recorded in the first quarter.

This means that the non-consumer part of the US economy subtracted 1.6% from GDP growth in the second quarter. In fact, as Deutsche Bank calculates, on an annual basis, the non-consumer portion of the economy is shrinking not only in real terms but also in nominal terms.

This means that excluding the contribution from the US consumer, the US economy is now in a recession. To wit, from DB’s Joe LaVorgna:

Business spending is in recession. Equipment spending fell -3.5% in the quarter and is down nearly -2% over the last year. At the same time, spending on structures was down -7.9% in the quarter and -7.0% over the last four quarters. The only pocket of strength within the nonresidential fixed investment sector was intellectual property products; this category, which includes software, R&D, and entertainment, literary and artistic originals, advanced a modest 3.5% in the quarter, and at a similar rate over the last year. While some of the weakness in investment spending has been due to the collapse in oil prices, non-energy-related spending has been soft, too, reflecting weak internal and external demand, excess slack and corporate uncertainty regarding the outcome of this year’s Presidential Election. While investment spending may get a slight boost over the next couple of quarters as the energy investment drag abates, we expect corporate outlays to remain stagnant until next year.

 

Housing stumbles. Residential investment declined -6.1% last quarter following a 7.8% in the previous quarter. Since the sector bottomed in Q3 2010, it has grown at an annualized rate of 8.6%. Elevated housing affordability coupled with low vacancy rates tells us that residential investment should rebound this quarter and next.

As Konstam adds, “This should further reinforce the secular stagnation thesis, and it will no doubt make the Fed even more cautious in its attempt to raise interest rates. While today’s data do not completely preclude a September rate hike, the hurdle for such a move has meaningfully increased. Going forward, we continue to project middling growth that leaves the economy extremely vulnerable to a negative exogenous shock.”

More thoughts:

The consumer is the one relative bright spot. Inflation-adjusted spending increased 4.2% in Q2 but grew a trend-like 2.7% over the last four quarters. Despite the collapse in energy costs that began two years ago and the five million-plus jobs that were created since then, the trend in consumer spending has not improved. For example, real consumption was up 2.7% in the four quarters ending Q2 2014, just before oil prices topped out. Consequently, while consumer spending has done well relative to the rest of the economy, in absolute terms, expenditures have been disappointing.

The problem for Q3 GDP, is that the “bright spot” is about to turn very dim:

We should expect a sharp pullback in spending this quarter. Indeed, the recent softness in motor vehicles sales, which are one of our five favorite economic indicators, may be hinting as much. We can see in the chart below that the toppyness in vehicle sales does not bode well for the underlying trend in consumer spending. Besides, as we have written on numerous occasions, gains in consumer spending alone are not enough to prevent a broader economic downturn. There have been numerous economic cycles when year-over-year consumer spending was positive but the economy still entered a downturn. Witness what happened during the 1981 to 1982 and 2001 recessions.

What happens next then? 

The 1.2% increase in real GDP in Q2 combined with a 2.2% rise in the GDP deflator meant that nominal activity expanded 3.5% in the quarter. However, the year-over-year growth rate of nominal GDP fell to just 2.4%, the lowest growth rate since Q1 2010 (2.1%). Since the four quarters ending Q1 2010 included the last quarter of the recession, one might plausibly argue that annual nominal GDP growth is at its cyclical trough. This is an ominous sign for corporate profits, which will be reported next month along with the second snapshot of Q2 GDP. Our favorite metric of underlying demand is final sales to private domestic purchasers, which subtracts inventories, government spending and net exports from GDP; this series grew 2.7% last quarter, a nice rebound from very weak readings in Q4 2015 (1.8%) and Q1 2016 (1.1%). However, as we can see in the chart below, the year-over-year trend in private demand is slowing. This is consistent with the profile of overall nominal activity. The downshift in momentum is troubling because, unlike 2012, when nominal activity and underlying private aggregate demand were decelerating but the business cycle was still relatively young, the economy is now more mature. And, monetary policy has effectively exhausted itself, so there is little that policymakers can do to offset any further slowing in demand. With respect to the second half, we continue to project sub-2% growth, a view that we have held for some time.

Sub 2% growth in a world where even the monthly injection of $180 billion in liquidity by central banks is powerless to sustain global GDP growth (just as the IMF). 

It also means that one truly unexpected, exogenous shock as monetary policy is already in overdrive, will send not just the US, but the entire world in an all out recession. But at least the Fed has a 25 basis point buffer from where to cut rates should that happen. And that’s it: after all every single Fed president has sworn that negative rates would never come to the US, and they never lie…

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Submitted by Carey Wedler via TheAntiMedia.org,

“By means that could be termed dishonest, deceitful and corrupt, they manufactured 7.2 billion euros in deposits by obvious sham transactions,” Judge Martin Nolan of Ireland said as he convicted three top bankers on Friday for their role in the 2008 financial crisis. They are among the first in the world to be sent to prison for their involvement in the global meltdown eight years ago.

The longest-ever criminal trial in Ireland lasted 74 days and led to convictions for former Irish Life and Permanent Bank Chief Executive Denis Casey; former finance director at the failed Anglo Irish Bank, Willie McAteer; and former head of capital markets at the Anglo Irish Bank, John Bowe. They received sentences ranging between two-and-a-half to three-and-a-half years.

As light as those sentences may seem considering the dire effect bankers’ actions had on the Irish economy, U.S. and English bankers have evaded convictions altogether. Though banks in those countries have since paid out billions of dollars in settlements to regulators for their role in the 2008 crash, no one from those companies has been sentenced to prison.

Reuters reported on the different approach used by Ireland:

“All three were convicted of conspiring together and with others to mislead investors, depositors and lenders by setting up a 7.2-billion-euro circular transaction scheme between March and September 2008 to bolster Anglo’s balance sheet.

 

“Irish Life placed the deposits via a non-banking subsidiary in the run-up to Anglo’s financial year-end, to allow its rival to categorize them as customer deposits, which are viewed as more secure, rather than a deposit from another bank.

 

” Defense attorneys for the bankers claimed the scheme was prompted by Irish regulators’ demands at the time that Irish banks “support one another as the financial crisis worsened” in a program called the “green jersey agenda.”

But Judge Nolan maintained they had committed a “very serious crime,” adding, “The public is entitled to rely on the probity of blue chip firms. If we can’t rely on the probity of these banks we lose all hope or trust in institutions.” A blue chip firm is a “nationally recognized, well-established and financially sound company,” according to Investopedia. Nolan also called Anglo Irish“‘probably the most reviled institution in the state,’” noting it was “put into liquidation in 2013 and remains subject to other criminal trials,” Reuters reported.

In recent years, the Irish population has grown increasingly angry over the lack of prosecutions for financial dealings that cost taxpayers “64 billion euros — almost 40 percent of annual economic output — after a property collapse forced the biggest state bank rescue in the euro zone,” Reuters noted. By 2011, Irish taxpayers had bailed out banks five times, and the Irish finance ministry said last month it could take up to 15 years to recoup the money pumped into those banks.

Willie McAteer, the former finance director at Anglo Irish, was previously convicted of “illegal lending and providing unlawful assistance to investors,” in 2014, but he was sentenced only to community service after a judge ruled he was “led into error and illegality” by Irish regulators.

Two top bankers from Anglo Irish Bank — chief operations officer Tiarnan O’Mahoney and former company secretary Bernard Daly — were convicted and sentenced in 2015 for crimes that preceded the 2008 crisis, but both were released from prison on appeal earlier this year after spending several months behind bars. O’Mahoney could still face a retrial.

The government’s lenient treatment of O’Mahoney and Daly leaves uncertainties regarding whether or not this week’s convictions will translate into actual prison time for the bankers or an upheaval of the current system; the Irish financial system’s corruption extends far beyond the activities of the recently convicted bankers.

Similarly, Iceland, which received widespread praise last year for sentencing over two dozen bankers to prison for their role in the global banking crisis, released three of them in April — years before their sentences were officially up.

In spite of the questions surrounding whether or not convictions like those issued Friday will produce tangible change, the symbolism of bankers actually being held accountable for the destruction caused by their schemes is sure to resonate with Irish citizens, as well as observers from around the world.

Meanwhile, in America, the political party vowing to end the banking oligarchy held its convention at the Wells Fargo center for a candidate bankrolled by Goldman Sachs.

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Over the past week, there was a troubling development for the establishment: Trump was soaring in the polls. In fact, in the widely watched, Reuters/IPSOS poll, for the first time Trump had taken an inexcusable 1 point lead following the Republican National convention.

So, as we reported last night, something had to be done. And something was done: Reuters “tweaked” its polling methodology.

As Reuters explained, “in a presidential campaign notable for its negativity, the option of “Neither” candidate appears to be an appealing alternative, at least to participants in the Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll. Many voters on both sides have been ambivalent in their support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, complicating the task of the pollsters trying to track the race. That sentiment may help explain an apparent skew that recently emerged in the Reuters/Ipsos poll results. Given the choice, a relatively large group of voters opted for “Neither/Other” candidate compared with other major polls, leading to an underreporting of several percentage points for one or other of the two major contenders at times in the race.”

As a result, Reuters/Ipsos is amending the wording of the choice and eliminating the word “Neither,” bringing the option in line with other polls.

Here is the real reason for the methodology change: according to Reuters “the inclusion of the word “Neither” is capturing Soft Trump supporters who, if given such an option, prefer not to make a choice. Here it is important to note that the soft supporter phenomenon also affects Clinton, but to a much lesser degree.”

As a result, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll – pre Friday evening – had Trump 40.2%, Clinton 38.5%, but, on a “pro forma” basis, eliminating “Neither” from the “Neither/Other” answer produced a different result. In that case, Clinton was ahead, 40% to 36%.

In other words, the real reason for the “tweak” was to push Hillary back in the lead simply due to a change in the question phrasing methodology.

With the first new poll under the new polling “approach” due to be released last night, we predicted that it would show a dramtic rebound for Hillary, just as Trump was picking up steam, and in doing so changing the entire frontrunner narrative from the ground up. 

And sure enough, here are the results of the “revised” poll released on Friday night.

From Reuters:

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton held a 6- percentage-point lead over Republican rival Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll with new wording that was released on Friday, the day after she formally accepted her party’s nomination for the Nov. 8 election.

 

Nearly 41 percent of likely voters favor Clinton, 35 percent favor Trump, and 25 percent picked “Other,” according to the new July 25-29 online poll of 1,043 likely voters, which overlapped with the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. The poll has a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

 

The presidential tracking poll reflects a slight change of wording from previous surveys, replacing the “Neither/Other” option given to respondents with just “Other.” An internal review had found the word “Neither” has, at times, siphoned support away from one or the other candidate.

Or rather, it has “siphoned” support from Hillary to Trump, something which the “internal review” had clearly noticed, and promptly stopped.

Thank of it as “seasonally adjusted” polling. From Reuters:

The pro forma, or “slightly revised” Reuters/Ipsos poll goes back only one week, and all prior data now appears be no longer available.

And that, dear readers, is how one tumbles from a 1-point lead to a 6-point loss in 3 days thanks to the miracle of a polling “adjustment.” Because if it works to “boost” GDP, why shouldn’t it work for Hillary as well?

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Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

The Russian military has reportedly sent biological warfare teams to the Russian arctic in northern Siberia after at least 40 people and 1,200 reindeer died as the result of a violent and rapid spread of what is believed to be Bacillus Anthracis, more commonly known as Anthrax.

Russian officials said the infection may have started after a contaminated corpse was exposed following a warm summer in the Arctic which saw temperatures rise as high as 95 degrees Fahrenheit.

There were dramatic scenes as the Russian army’s Chemical, Radioactive and Biological Protection Corps, equipped with masks and bio-warfare protective clothing, flew to to regional capital Salekhard on a military Il-76 aircraft to deal with the emergency.

 

 

They were deployed by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to carry laboratory tests on the ground, detect and eliminate the focal point of the infection, and to dispose safely of dead animals.

 

…

 

“As of now, there is no single diagnosis of the dangerous infection,” said a spokesman for the governor of Yamalo-Nenets, Dmitry Kobylkin.

 

The Sun UK

Officials noted that they are not certain Anthrax is the sole cause and another biological agent may be to blame. Because of the remote location of the outbreak the situation has been, for the most part, contained according to Russian officials.

(

Regions north of Tarko Sale are the focus of the outbreak)

The claim that the Anthrax infection originated in nature sounds legitimate enough, but one can never discount the possibility of the involvement of state-sponsored or rogue assets, as has been noted in a recent release of U.S. government documents which expose widespread human experimentation programs utilizing chemical, biological and radiological weapons:

“…we have identified hundreds of radiological, chemical, and biological tests and experiments in which hundreds of thousands of people were used as test subjects. These tests and experiments often involved hazardous substances such as radiation, blister and nerve agents, biological agents, and lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD). In some cases, basic safeguards to protect people were either not in place or not followed. For example, some tests and experiments were conducted in secret; others involved the use of people without their knowledge or consent or their full knowledge of the risks involved.”

The Russian Arctic emergency highlights the importance of protective CBRN equipment that can be deployed quickly in the event of a rapidly spreading biological infection, chemical gas, or radiological threat.

*  *  *

Will the Russians blame Hillary Clinton for this outbreak?

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Nothing describes socialism more aptly than baking a 4 feet tall cake weighing 90 kilos for Hugo Chavez’s birthday (a dead man) while the rest of the country starves, cannot find basic necessities

The cake is a recreation of the “Cuartel de la Montana”, the palace that Chavez famously stormed in 1992 as an army commander to protest Carlos Andres Perez’s government.

According to a local newspaper, the following ingredients were used :

1. 720 eggs
2. 23 kilos of butter
3. 90 kilos of flour
4. 90 kilos of sugar
5. 44 gallons of milk                                                                                     

 with the state sponsored food program. Evidently, the government’s priorities are elsewhere.

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Three people were killed and a fourth was injured in a shooting in Mukilteo, Washington north of Seattle, according to police. About 15-20 people were partying at home in the Chennault Beach neighborhood when gunfire broke out around 12:30 a.m., according to Mukilteo Police, NBC station KING5 reported. No other details about ages of the victims or what was happening in moments leading up to the shooting have been released.

The shooting happened in the Chennault neighborhood, not far from the Boeing airfield between Seattle and Everett. Police say the gunman was gone when officers arrived, but interviews from those at the scene led them to identify a suspect and a vehicle. A trooper with the Washington State Patrol spotted the suspect’s car about two hours later on I-5 South near Chehalis and pulled the driver over, taking him into custody without incident. His name has not been released

Sad scene here as parents arrive not knowing the status of their child…It sounds like a high school/College. http://pic.twitter.com/HZJahV6cH1

— Jack Reale (@jackrealeEXP2) July 30, 2016

“My granddaughter called us about 20 minutes after midnight that she was hiding; that there had been a shooting and that two of her friends were shot and she was shot at,” said Susan Gemmer. “We jumped out of bed, got dressed and got in the car as fast as we could.” Gemmer said her granddaughter was OK, but in shock.

The weapon that is believed to have been used in the shooting has also been found, according to a Twitter post, citing Lewis County PD. The gunman is said to have been armed with a rifle.

Police told reporters at a news conference that no other suspects were being sought.

Mukilteo Police stress, they are not looking for any other suspects at this time. #ChennaultShooting http://pic.twitter.com/CxbXOxIgUx

— Heather Graf (@HeatherGrafK5) July 30, 2016

“We are sad to report three fatalities tonight, one injured and transported to Harborview [hospital] we do not know the extent of injuries,” city officials announced.

“We have suffered a great loss.” Mukilteo mayor heartbroken by #ChennaultShooting that killed 3 ppl. #komonews http://pic.twitter.com/Fxcf5QxxvY

— Gabe Cohen (@GabeCohenKOMO) July 30, 2016

No further information was immediately available, police told reporters.

Police have sealed off the neighborhood where the shooting took place, establishing a meeting place for parents and relatives at the nearby Church of Latter Day Saints on Harbour Pointe Blvd.

“Tonight our community has been shaken to the core,” said Mukilteo mayor Jennifer Gregerson. “We grieve with the families who have lost those in this horrible event.”

Several police agencies from around Snohomish County are helping with the investigation, including officers from Brier, Edmonds, Lynnwood, Mountlake Terrace, as well as deputies from the Snohomish County Sheriff’s Office and troopers with the Washington State Patrol.

Mukilteo is a waterfront city in the state of Washington, near the Canadian border, with a population of just over 20,000. It is one of the most affluent Seattle suburbs and Money Magazine ranked it 10th out of its 100 top places in the US to live in.

Neither the identity, nor any information about the shooter’s motives was available at this time.

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MacVladimir The Cat: The Napoleon of Globalist Crime 

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Submitted by Vladimir Kozin via OrientalReview.org,

The recent book review “A Stark Nuclear Warning” by Jerry Brown, in which he has shared views on William J. Perry’s memoirs “My Journey at the Nuclear Brink”, raises a lot of questions and concerns.

Jerry Brown unequivocally describes Perry, who held many important positions in the past, including the U.S. Secretary of Defense in 1994-1997, as a double-hated man.

On the one hand, as the U.S. Secretary of Defense he helped to build a formidable U.S. nuclear arsenal several decades ago, being responsible for important technological advances with respect to U.S. nuclear forces, like launching the B-2 a heavy strategic bomber; revitalizing the aging B-52, a bomber from the same category as SOA (Strategic Offensive Arms) inventory; putting the Trident submarine program back on track; and making an ill-fated attempt to bring the MX ICBM, a ten-warhead missile, into operation.

On the other, William J. Perry has been identified as a staunch proponent of avoiding nuclear danger, nowadays, when he has retired and embarked “on an urgent mission to alert us to the dangerous nuclear road we are travelling.” He is clearly calling American leaders to account for what he believes “are very bad decisions”, such as the precipitous expansion of NATO right up to the Russian border (William J. Perry was a very brave man when he became the lone Cabinet member who opposed President Bill Clinton’s decision to give Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic immediate membership in the Alliance). William J. Perry has also not been supportive of President George W. Bush’s withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia in 2002.

It is interesting to note that a person who took an active part in the continuous U.S. SOA and TNW (tactical nuclear weapons) build-up today has concluded that there could be no acceptable defence against a massive-scale nuclear attack. According to him, the great paradox of the nuclear age is that deterrence of nuclear war is sought by building ever more lethal and precise weapons. For the sake of reality it should be underscored that this notion has to be attributed exclusively to the USA, who has a long time ago embarked upon an “offensive unconditional nuclear deterrence strategy” which has not practically been changed so far.

Jerry Brown observes that William J. Perry is convinced that parity is “old thinking” because nuclear weapons can’t actually be used – the risk of uncontrollable and catastrophic escalation is too high. Seemingly, he shares the earlier maxim once articulated by President Ronald Reagan: “A nuclear war cannot be fought, because it can never be won.”

Unfortunately, in his remarks Jerry Brown has made a number of inaccuracies in describing some facts of the immediate past and the present-day military-political environment.

He writes that: “…both the Soviet Union and the United States had developed hydrogen bombs”. In reality, the USA was the first state that produced H-bomb (1952), the USSR responded lately (1953). As is known, the USA was the first one who has produced an A-bomb; while the Soviet Union did so only in 1949. The USA was the first one who has created a classic SOA triad (ICBM, SLBM and heavy bombers), and MIRV ICBM. The USSR followed suit.

That is why it is irrelevant to claim that “the Soviets just stepped up their nuclear efforts and so did the U.S.”

Jerry Brown reminds about the Cuban missile crisis, but does not clarify that it has been initiated by Washington who unilaterally has deployed medium-range nuclear missiles “Jupiter” with 1 megaton each in Italy and Turkey, and at a time when the USA had nuclear warheads superiority over the Soviet Union as 17:1 (revelation by Robert McNamara). Only after that dangerous action Moscow has decided to move its SNF to Cuba (note: before the Cuban missile crisis has been resolved, the Soviet leaders have not even authorized to install nuclear warheads upon the missiles and combat aircraft brought to Cuba).

Jerry Brown is of opinion that the Cold War was over, and the nuclear weapons of the former Soviet Union were located not only in Russia, but also in three new republics that “were not capable of protecting them.” After the demise of the USSR, Russia has brought all SOA and TNW from these republics back to its territory, despite the fact that all these nuclear assets have been strongly protected. This measure has been agreed upon between Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus and the Western nuclear powers.

I do not believe that the Cold War is over despite the Paris Charter for a New Europe heralded that in 1990. The Cold War has entered a new phase – qualitatively more dangerous that its first phase. Cold War 2.0 is characterized by a vast military build-up of NATO near the Russian borders, and a complete stalemate in arms control: currently there are 15 unresolved issues in this domain between the USA and Russia. In the first stage of Cold War Moscow and Washington signed 7 nuclear arms control accords, CWC and BWC, CFE-1 and CFE-1A treaties, a number of CBM arrangements. Since 2010 nothing has been done in this sphere.

So, it is incorrect to state that “the leaders of the Soviet Union and the United States did not make any effort to slow nuclear competition; they did just the opposite.”

The reaction of Moscow to the fielding of the U.S. ground-based BMD assets in Europe was portrayed by Jerry Brown inaccurately.  Such elements plus sea-based components of the U.S BMD “shield” really create formidable threat to Russia and its allies because of two major reasons:

(a) the launching tubes of the U.S. BMD system Mk-41 can house not only defensive interceptors, but also offensive cruise missiles and other war-fighting means in the framework of the “Prompt Global Strike” which can be used as a first-strike weapon versus Russia;

 

(b) the U.S. and NATO BMD system has been tied up to their nuclear and conventional forces – such “appropriate mix” has been stamped up at the three recent NATO Summits in Chicago (2012), Newport (2014) and Warsaw (2016).

Washington still does not want to abrogate its Cold War thinking: to cancel its first use of nuclear weapons’ concept. All U.S. Administrations have declined to accept several Soviet and Russian initiatives on that issue.

President Barack Obama failed to ratify the CTBT (1996), though he has promised to do it during his presidency.

Recently, in the framework of NATO the debates on the further strengthening of this largest military bloc reliance on nuclear weapons have intensified.

The talk is about expanding the geographic scope and the total number of military exercises conducted with simulated use of bombs equipped with mock nuclear warheads, carrying military computer games on the use of nuclear weapons on the European continent, as well as the development of special scenarios on transformation of hypothetical conflict involving the general conventional forces into the conflicts with the use of nuclear weapons.

Suggestions have been made that in the course of combined command and staff games of a “new type” with the help of computer simulation while resolving non-nuclear and nuclear tasks in the scenario of the regional and global environment the condition of the “use of Russian strategy of nuclear escalation” as a counterweight to the “nuclear counter-escalation” to NATO is included. The idea of involving in such games not only representatives of the military, but also high-ranking civilian government officials participating in making the important decisions of national importance is articulated.

On June 25, 2015, during a hearing before the Committee on Armed Services of the US Congress devoted to the prospective role of nuclear weapons the United States Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work called to oppose to the Russian nuclear doctrine by the U.S. nuclear capabilities with the aim to launch a strategy of “de-escalation of escalation.” In other words, it is interpreted in Washington in such a way that an escalation of threats of the limited use of nuclear weapons should be used to de-escalate conflicts fought with conventional weapons.

Commenting on the debate that took place during the meeting of the defense ministers of the member countries’ of the “transatlantic solidarity” in Brussels on 8 October 2015, the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to NATO Adam Thomson has publicly complained that before the Alliance held separate military exercises with the use of conventional and nuclear weapons, but has never tested the transformation of the first type of exercises in the second ones. But he further recognized with appreciation that the recommendation of the “transformation of NATO military exercises with the use of conventional weapons into nuclear drills” became the focus of attention within the Alliance.

Pentagon chief Ashton Carter on the same day told a news conference that the transatlantic pact should prepare an “updated instructions on the use of nuclear weapons” in order to adapt to new threats and challenges of the 21st century and, in particular, called for “better integrate non-nuclear and nuclear deterrence.” His compatriot Alexander Vershbow, NATO Deputy Secretary General, said at the Berlin Security Conference November 17, 2015, the Alliance also must “modernize nuclear deterrence, strengthening his best means of early warning and intelligence.”

In 2014-2016 in order to develop new nuclear posture the U.S. strategic nuclear forces held several military exercises in Central and Eastern Europe, and North Africa, employing heavy strategic bombers B-52H and B-2A, capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

In March 2004 Washington initiated on the constant basis a large-scale NATO air patrol operations in the airspace of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, code-named “Baltic Air Policing”. It involves combat aircraft (DCA), which are potential carriers of tactical nuclear weapons. Over the past twelve years, i.e. from March 2004 to July 2016, fifteen countries of the Alliance, that is, more than half of NATO member-states have been participated in this operation near Russian borders, including the three major Western nuclear powers: the USA, the United Kingdom and France. This operation is conducted day-in-day-out, and 365/366 days per annum.

Washington is modernizing its TNW, including those fielded in Europe, and has no intention to pull them back to the CONUS.

Two of the five existing types of nuclear bombs, namely B-61-7 and B-61-11, as well as a new perspective bomb B-61-12 have “of strategic importance”, as may be delivered to targets not only by tactical aircraft but also by heavy strategic bombers B-52H and B-2A: each can carry 16 such bombs. Both types of strategic bombers can to travel the distance of 11,000 km without refueling in the air, and more than 18,000 km with mid-air refueling. For this reason these types of bombs in the documents of the Pentagon and the State Department are labeled as “strategic”.

A new bomb B-61-12 with a pin-point accuracy is a first-strike nuclear weapon.

Hans Kristensen, a Danish researcher, working at FAS, points out that “… it is expected that in the next decade, NATO’s nuclear forces will undergo major improvements that will affect increasing quality performance characteristics of both the nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. The planned modernization will significantly increase the military potential of the Alliance’s nuclear policy in Europe.”

The “doomsday” clock is ticking. Nowadays it shows 23.57. Too alarming.

What to do? Seemingly, three initial steps are badly needed…

First. To make a pledge of no-fist-use of nuclear weapons a universal norm, starting from the USA and Russia. As a preliminary step towards this goal to make a commitment to resort to a defensive unconditional nuclear deterrence that threatens no one. Such notion will require no costs.

 

Second. The USA should withdraw all its TNW from Europe and the Asian part of Turkey.

 

Third. A multilateral new ABM Treaty limiting the number of BMD interceptors and their geographical deployments has to be elaborated.

The next U.S. Administration has to seriously consider these steps.

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Many of us, at one point or another, have wondered what it would be like to quit a job in a blaze of glory…taking down computer networks and leaving a trail of mayhem in our paths on the way out the door. No, just us?   

Well, turns out that if you ever do go down that path it’s probably best
not to text your co-worker shortly thereafter admitting to the crime. 
Unfortunately, that’s exactly what former Citibank employee Lennon Ray
Brown did and now he’s facing a $77,000 fine and 21 months in a federal
prison.

Per a press release from the Department of Justice, Mr. Brown, upset about a negative work review, decided to get even by taking down 90% of Citibank’s networks across North America.  Per the Department of Justice:

…at approximately 6:03 p.m. that evening, Brown knowingly transmitted a code and command to 10 core Citibank Global Control Center routers, and by transmitting that code, erased the running configuration files in nine of the routers, resulting in a loss of connectivity to approximately 90% of all Citibank networks across North America.  At 6:05 p.m. that evening, Brown scanned his employee identification badge to exit the Citibank Regents Campus.”

Unfortunately, Brown then made a “slight” unforced error when he decided to send a text message to his co-worker admitting to the crime:

“They was firing me. I just beat them to it. Nothing personal, the upper management need to see what they guys on the floor is capable of doing when they keep getting mistreated. I took one for the team. Sorry if I made my peers look bad, but sometimes it take something like what I did to wake the upper management up.”

Guess these situations don’t always go so well as portrayed in the movies.  Oh well, live and learn.

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