Month: November 2016

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker issued a warning to Austrian presidential candidate Norbert Hofer, regarding referendums.

Hofer, an anti-immigration, candidate is in a tight race for the election coming up on December 4.

If he wins, Hofer said he would hold in-out referendums if Brussels seeks to expand it power.

Please consider European president Jean-Claude Juncker pleads with EU leaders not to hold ‘in-out’ referendums – because voters will choose to Leave.

Jean-Claude Juncker has urged EU leaders not to hold referendums on their membership of the bloc because he fears their voters will also choose to leave. The European Commission president said giving people a vote would be ‘unwise’ as they could seek to replicate Brexit.

 

His remarks come as one of the contenders to become Austrian president has threatened to hold a referendum if the EU integrates further.

 

Norbert Hofer, who will become Europe’s first far-right head of state since the Second World War if elected on Sunday, has promised a ballot if the EU becomes more centralised following Brexit.

 

‘Regarding referenda on EU membership, I think it is not wise to organise this kind of debate, not only because I might be concerned about the final result but because this will pile more controversy onto the huge number already present at the heart of the EU.

 

‘Besides, I don’t think the next president of Austria, whoever it will be, will launch themselves into this kind of escapade.

 

‘I have learned to tell the difference, between campaign promises and concrete policies.

 

Mr Juncker, who has faced blame for the Brexit vote, insisted ‘the existence of the EU is not in doubt’.

 

He claimed the EU’s weakness was a ‘lack of love’ rather than because of the actions of Brussels.

Lie of the Day

Juncker is a babbling, hypocritical fool, who was also sure Brexit would never happen.

Asked about the Freedom Party candidate’s pledge, Mr Juncker told Euronews: ‘We can’t deny or take away the people of Europe’s right to express their views.’

Got that?

Who Will Win?

Austria Betting Odds – Paddy Power

According to PaddyPower, the betting odds are 3/10 for Hofer and 11/5 for Van der Vellen as of November 29.

If you bet $5 on Van der Bellen you collect a total of $16 ($11 + $5).
If you bet $10 on Hofer you collect a total of $13 ($10 + $3).

Austria Betting Odds – Bwin

The sports betting site Bwin sees it this way.

In this case a bet of $200 on Hofer will return a total of $300 and a bet of $100 on Van der Bellen would return a total of $250.

Like Trump, Austria’s Norbert Hofer Attracting Disillusioned Working Class Voters

Breitbart reports Like Trump, Austria’s Norbert Hofer Attracting Disillusioned Working Class Voters.

The victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election has political analysts predicting a boost for Hofer and other populists across Europe in what they call the “Trump-effect.”

Hofer has extended his lead in the polls by another percentage point from his opponent, former Green party leader Alexander Van der Bellen.

 

Critics of the populist politician worry that Hofer will dissolve the grand coalition government in Austria, which consists of the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Socialists, if he becomes president. Despite the FPÖ leading in the polls, Hofer has said he wouldn’t consider such a move until at least the summer of next year.

 

“I’m not going to dismiss the government at every opportunity,” he told Austrian broadcaster ORF. However, Mr. Hofer did make it clear that if the government didn’t continue on the path of border security and integration legislation he would very likely consider new elections.

Austrian Poll

The above from http://ift.tt/2fM59I5.

Following Text Translation From German …

FPÖ candidate Hofer has 52% of the votes (with a fluctuation margin of 4%), independent candidate Alexander Van der Bellen has 48%. Compared to the beginning of the month, Hofer has thus increased the lead from two to four percent.

The race is, of course, still open. Because of the wide fluctuation range, Hofer moves between 48% and 56%, Van der Bellen between 44% and 52%.

Norbert Hofer extended his narrow lead over Van der Bellen (800 interviewees from November 14-16).

Final Comments

Polls and betting odds have been notoriously wrong lately. First came Brexit, then Trump, then a surprise in the French primary when Francois Fillon knocked off Nicolas Sarkozy in the first round.

This is the first time this year that polls and betting odds have had the anti-establishment candidate in the lead. Maybe the string of failures stops here.

A vote for Hofer would not only be a vote for common sense, it would be a good outcome for the UK as well.

via http://ift.tt/2fM2NZv Tyler Durden

Just a day after Goldman COO Gary Cohn unexpectedly met with Donald Trump, he is now said to be “weighing a future outside the firm” the WSJ reports. According to Dow Jones, the bank’s “Number 2”, who met with Trump on Tursday, has had conversations in recent months about leaving the bank.

As reported yesterday, Cohn, who has been CEO Blankfein’s top deputy for a decade, met with Donald Trump Tuesday. It isn’t clear whether the president-elect is considering Mr. Cohn for a position; Politico reported Wednesday that Mr. Cohn could be a contender to head the Office of Management and Budget. A possible position in the Trump administration comes at a time when Mr. Cohn’s role at Goldman has already been in question. The 56-year-old president and chief operating officer has had conversations in recent months about leaving the bank, according to people familiar with the matter.

As second-in-command, Mr. Cohn oversees Goldman’s daily operations. He joined Goldman in 1990 and became a partner in 1994—a class that also included Mr. Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin.

 

Mr. Cohn’s background reflects the sort of Midwestern voters who helped power Mr. Trump to a surprise victory. Born in Ohio the son of an electrician, Mr. Cohn’s first job was selling window frames and aluminum siding in Cleveland, and he later sold silver on Wall Street.

 

In recent years, he has taken on a more public-facing role and struck clients and colleagues as more polished. He has cultivated relationships in Silicon Valley, where Mr. Blankfein is less at ease, and is close to executives such as Uber Technologies Inc.’s Travis Kalanick and Tesla Motors Inc.’s Elon Musk.

A departure by the bank’s president would scrap Goldman’s most-obvious succession plan, and in the process elevate a new crop of executives eyeing Blankfein’s job the WSJ notes. It would also signal that Mr. Blankfein, who weathered the financial crisis, survived a bout with cancer and has settled into a role as a senior industry statesman, isn’t going anywhere.

The paper adds that Blankfein’s stay has become more accepted within Goldman’s executive ranks in recent months. Michael Sherwood, who ran Goldman’s international business from London and had once been seen as a potential successor, said as much last week when he announced his retirement. “Some people want [the CEO job] passionately; I just didn’t,” Mr. Sherwood said in an interview. “One of those people, by the way, is named Lloyd and he’s not going anywhere. He doesn’t say ‘one more year;’ he says ‘five more years.”

Blankfein has been CEO since 2006, and his inner circle of confidants has seen little turnover, leaving few opportunities for promotion lower down the ranks. That has meant that there is little room for Cohn and created what some executives describe as a talent bottleneck. Further, some executives describe growing frustration with the stasis, even while acknowledging that steady leadership likely helped Goldman weather the crisis and rally support for strategic changes.

* * * 

Should Mr. Cohn opt to seek opportunities outside the firm, his role as chief operating officer and president would likely be split between among two executives, people familiar with the matter have said. Goldman has a history of co-executives, and Mr. Cohn split the No. 2 job for several years with Jon Winkelried, who left the firm in 2009.

The likeliest candidates to replace Mr. Cohn, according to people familiar with the matter, are Chief Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz and investment-banking co-chief David Solomon. Outside candidates include R. Martin Chavez, Goldman’s chief technologist, and Stephen Scherr, the strategist who was recently put in charge of Goldman’s push into consumer banking.

Who is tapped will say much about how dramatically the regulatory changes pushed through since the crisis have reshaped Goldman’s priorities and power centers.

As to where Cohn heads next, should he indeed depart Goldman, it is unclear, although considering his recent visit to Trump Tower, a position in the new administration is likely in the cards. Considering another former Goldman Partner is set to advise Trump, that would no longer be all that shocking.

via http://ift.tt/2fM9AlV Tyler Durden

Just a day after Goldman COO Gary Cohn unexpectedly met with Donald Trump, he is now said to be “weighing a future outside the firm” the WSJ reports. According to Dow Jones, the bank’s “Number 2”, who met with Trump on Tursday, has had conversations in recent months about leaving the bank.

As reported yesterday, Cohn, who has been CEO Blankfein’s top deputy for a decade, met with Donald Trump Tuesday. It isn’t clear whether the president-elect is considering Mr. Cohn for a position; Politico reported Wednesday that Mr. Cohn could be a contender to head the Office of Management and Budget. A possible position in the Trump administration comes at a time when Mr. Cohn’s role at Goldman has already been in question. The 56-year-old president and chief operating officer has had conversations in recent months about leaving the bank, according to people familiar with the matter.

As second-in-command, Mr. Cohn oversees Goldman’s daily operations. He joined Goldman in 1990 and became a partner in 1994—a class that also included Mr. Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin.

 

Mr. Cohn’s background reflects the sort of Midwestern voters who helped power Mr. Trump to a surprise victory. Born in Ohio the son of an electrician, Mr. Cohn’s first job was selling window frames and aluminum siding in Cleveland, and he later sold silver on Wall Street.

 

In recent years, he has taken on a more public-facing role and struck clients and colleagues as more polished. He has cultivated relationships in Silicon Valley, where Mr. Blankfein is less at ease, and is close to executives such as Uber Technologies Inc.’s Travis Kalanick and Tesla Motors Inc.’s Elon Musk.

A departure by the bank’s president would scrap Goldman’s most-obvious succession plan, and in the process elevate a new crop of executives eyeing Blankfein’s job the WSJ notes. It would also signal that Mr. Blankfein, who weathered the financial crisis, survived a bout with cancer and has settled into a role as a senior industry statesman, isn’t going anywhere.

The paper adds that Blankfein’s stay has become more accepted within Goldman’s executive ranks in recent months. Michael Sherwood, who ran Goldman’s international business from London and had once been seen as a potential successor, said as much last week when he announced his retirement. “Some people want [the CEO job] passionately; I just didn’t,” Mr. Sherwood said in an interview. “One of those people, by the way, is named Lloyd and he’s not going anywhere. He doesn’t say ‘one more year;’ he says ‘five more years.”

Blankfein has been CEO since 2006, and his inner circle of confidants has seen little turnover, leaving few opportunities for promotion lower down the ranks. That has meant that there is little room for Cohn and created what some executives describe as a talent bottleneck. Further, some executives describe growing frustration with the stasis, even while acknowledging that steady leadership likely helped Goldman weather the crisis and rally support for strategic changes.

* * * 

Should Mr. Cohn opt to seek opportunities outside the firm, his role as chief operating officer and president would likely be split between among two executives, people familiar with the matter have said. Goldman has a history of co-executives, and Mr. Cohn split the No. 2 job for several years with Jon Winkelried, who left the firm in 2009.

The likeliest candidates to replace Mr. Cohn, according to people familiar with the matter, are Chief Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz and investment-banking co-chief David Solomon. Outside candidates include R. Martin Chavez, Goldman’s chief technologist, and Stephen Scherr, the strategist who was recently put in charge of Goldman’s push into consumer banking.

Who is tapped will say much about how dramatically the regulatory changes pushed through since the crisis have reshaped Goldman’s priorities and power centers.

As to where Cohn heads next, should he indeed depart Goldman, it is unclear, although considering his recent visit to Trump Tower, a position in the new administration is likely in the cards. Considering another former Goldman Partner is set to advise Trump, that would no longer be all that shocking.

via http://ift.tt/2fM9AlV Tyler Durden

Just a day after Goldman COO Gary Cohn unexpectedly met with Donald Trump, he is now said to be “weighing a future outside the firm” the WSJ reports. According to Dow Jones, the bank’s “Number 2”, who met with Trump on Tursday, has had conversations in recent months about leaving the bank.

As reported yesterday, Cohn, who has been CEO Blankfein’s top deputy for a decade, met with Donald Trump Tuesday. It isn’t clear whether the president-elect is considering Mr. Cohn for a position; Politico reported Wednesday that Mr. Cohn could be a contender to head the Office of Management and Budget. A possible position in the Trump administration comes at a time when Mr. Cohn’s role at Goldman has already been in question. The 56-year-old president and chief operating officer has had conversations in recent months about leaving the bank, according to people familiar with the matter.

As second-in-command, Mr. Cohn oversees Goldman’s daily operations. He joined Goldman in 1990 and became a partner in 1994—a class that also included Mr. Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin.

 

Mr. Cohn’s background reflects the sort of Midwestern voters who helped power Mr. Trump to a surprise victory. Born in Ohio the son of an electrician, Mr. Cohn’s first job was selling window frames and aluminum siding in Cleveland, and he later sold silver on Wall Street.

 

In recent years, he has taken on a more public-facing role and struck clients and colleagues as more polished. He has cultivated relationships in Silicon Valley, where Mr. Blankfein is less at ease, and is close to executives such as Uber Technologies Inc.’s Travis Kalanick and Tesla Motors Inc.’s Elon Musk.

A departure by the bank’s president would scrap Goldman’s most-obvious succession plan, and in the process elevate a new crop of executives eyeing Blankfein’s job the WSJ notes. It would also signal that Mr. Blankfein, who weathered the financial crisis, survived a bout with cancer and has settled into a role as a senior industry statesman, isn’t going anywhere.

The paper adds that Blankfein’s stay has become more accepted within Goldman’s executive ranks in recent months. Michael Sherwood, who ran Goldman’s international business from London and had once been seen as a potential successor, said as much last week when he announced his retirement. “Some people want [the CEO job] passionately; I just didn’t,” Mr. Sherwood said in an interview. “One of those people, by the way, is named Lloyd and he’s not going anywhere. He doesn’t say ‘one more year;’ he says ‘five more years.”

Blankfein has been CEO since 2006, and his inner circle of confidants has seen little turnover, leaving few opportunities for promotion lower down the ranks. That has meant that there is little room for Cohn and created what some executives describe as a talent bottleneck. Further, some executives describe growing frustration with the stasis, even while acknowledging that steady leadership likely helped Goldman weather the crisis and rally support for strategic changes.

* * * 

Should Mr. Cohn opt to seek opportunities outside the firm, his role as chief operating officer and president would likely be split between among two executives, people familiar with the matter have said. Goldman has a history of co-executives, and Mr. Cohn split the No. 2 job for several years with Jon Winkelried, who left the firm in 2009.

The likeliest candidates to replace Mr. Cohn, according to people familiar with the matter, are Chief Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz and investment-banking co-chief David Solomon. Outside candidates include R. Martin Chavez, Goldman’s chief technologist, and Stephen Scherr, the strategist who was recently put in charge of Goldman’s push into consumer banking.

Who is tapped will say much about how dramatically the regulatory changes pushed through since the crisis have reshaped Goldman’s priorities and power centers.

As to where Cohn heads next, should he indeed depart Goldman, it is unclear, although considering his recent visit to Trump Tower, a position in the new administration is likely in the cards. Considering another former Goldman Partner is set to advise Trump, that would no longer be all that shocking.

via http://ift.tt/2fM9AlV Tyler Durden

By EconMatters

We discuss where Oil is headed over the next six months and how producers might want to buy back their hedges before they start losing money big time above $54 a barrel. Producers could lose big on all those hedges they thought were their friend in the oil market!

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

via http://ift.tt/2gya6Wx EconMatters

Today’s “OPEC deal” snowjob continued with the statement by Russian energy minister Novak, who moments ago have a press conference in which he praised the production cut conclusion, however, two key aspects of Russia’s contribution to the non-OPEC stood out.

First, the energy minister said that Russia would cut production “only gradually because of technical issues”, and he also refused to note from what level Russia production will be cut. The last is important, because in the past week Russia hinted that instead of actually cutting from a historical reference level, it would “cut” from a level proposed in its 2017 budget, all of which are higher than the October, or November, levels.

Here is the Reuters summary of Novak headlines

• RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER NOVAK SAYS WELCOMES OPEC DECISION
• NOVAK SAYS OPEC OIL DEAL IS MAJOR STEP FOR GLOBAL CRUDE INDUSTRY, AIMED AT RESTORING SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE
• NOVAK SAYS RUSSIA READY TO JOIN AGREEMENT ON OIL PRICE STABILIZATION
• NOVAK SAYS RUSSIA READY TO GRADUALLY CUT OIL OUTPUT BY UP TO 300,000 BPD IN H1 2017
• NOVAK SAYS RUSSIA WILL CUT PRODUCTION ONLY GRADUALLY BECAUSE OF TECHNICAL ISSUES
• NOVAK SAYS RUSSIA EXPECTS OTHER NON-OPEC COUNTRIES TO CUT OUTPUT BY UP TO 300,000 BPD
• NOVAK SAYS OPEC, NON-OPEC COUNTRIES AGREED TO MEET WITHIN 10 DAYS
• NOVAK SAYS OPEC, NON-OPEC DEAL TO BE STATED IN OIL PRODUCERS’ SPECIAL MEMORANDUM
• NOVAK GIVES NO INDICATION FROM WHICH LEVEL RUSSIA IS READY TO CUT OUTPUT.

A quick skim of these reveals that Russia has little if any intention of actually cutting production, and certainly not at once, and instead – alongside all other Non-OPEC members – will seek to capture market share from those OPEC nations, mostly Saudi Arabia, who have cut production.

via http://ift.tt/2fRzdoY Tyler Durden

Shortly after the conclusion of today’s Vienna meeting, OPEC released the following table which lays out the breakdown of what the current reference production level is by nation, as well as the proposed adjustment to get to a 1.2 million barrel per day reduction, as well as the “pro forma” production number that will be effective on January 2017.

Two quick observations.

As noted previously, Indonesia is no longer in OPEC after it “suspended” its membership, effectively giving it full right to pump as much as it wants relative to its most recent October baseline production level of 722K per the OPEC monthly book. The reason for Indonesia’s departure, according to the Nigeria oil minister, is that it was “unable to contribute a large enough cut.”

More notably, Iran was in such a rush to declare victory and state that it is the only nation to be allowed to boost production that someone forgot to check the math in the table, because the 90,000 upward adjustment appears to be an error: the country’s Reference Production level of 3,975tb/d is actually well higher than the January production level of 3,797tb/d. However, for political and optical purposes, it was meant to give Iran a domestic “victory” over the Saudis, by giving Iran leeway to announce it was the only nation to be allowed to boost production in the face of Saudi opposition, when in reality it appears to have been a math glitch.

However, even more notable is that if one compares the OPEC production level per the “deal” relative to January output, is that total production appears to be higher by over 800,000 barrels. Keep in mind that both Libya and Nigeria are set to boost production higher, potentially to 1mmb/d and 2mm/d respectively, and expanding total OPEC production back over 33mmbpd in just a few months. This happens at a time of modest seasonal production reduction by the Saudis and modest cuts by other members, while the exempt nations are ramping up.

One wonders how long until the market does this math and realizes that basically the strategy since February was to jawbone prices higher, ramp up throughout and then adjust to seasonal levels in January 2017 and call it a cut?

via http://ift.tt/2gKEw79 Tyler Durden