Month: December 2016

These Countries Have Nearly “Eliminated Cash From Circulation”

The cashless society is catching up to all of us. As SHTFPlan.com's Mac Slavo notes,

Most of Europe has shifted that way, and now India is forcing the issue. In the United States, people are being acclimated to it, and may soon find that no other option is practical in the highly-digitized online world.

 

Once that takes hold, the banksters, bureaucrats and hackers will have total information on all your transactions, purchasing behavior, profiles about consumers, political and social background history and even predictive behavior, allowing them to control the population with ease.

 

If/when a major crisis hits, nothing will work if the grid goes down; nothing will take place that isn’t strictly authorized – apart from a barter and precious metals exchange system that will be marginalized to the pre-digital ghetto.

In fact, as The Daily Coin's Rory Hall explains 1 out of 3 people in the world never uses cash…

We recently learned how serious these criminals are about stealing the sovereignty of every person on planet earth. Actually, most people are willingly handing over their sovereignty to the banks/government and have no idea what they are actually doing.

When India banned (made illegal) the 500 and 1000 rupee banknote this move effected every 1 out of 7 people on planet earth. That means that every 7th person, anywhere and everywhere, you come in contact with may have been effected by this cash ban.

Our individual sovereignty is tied directly to our ability to move freely about. When every step we make is tracked by the bank/government our sovereignty is gone forever. Freely trading commerce is one of the cornerstones of human sovereignty. Without the ability to conduct business with whom we wish, when we wish we are nothing more than cattle to the overlords of the land.

An expat living in Thailand sent me an email last week, at the height of India blowing apart because the idiotic decision by Prime Minister Modi to eliminate the two most used bank notes in India. The email was to inform me that Thailand would be implementing a new policy in the early part of 2017 to completely eliminate coins from circulation. South Korea has already taken measures to eliminate coins from circulation.

Here is a google translation from the Korean website wikitree.co.kr (once you arrive you will need to translate from Korean language)

From next year, you can get the change of cash that you bought and paid at a convenience store on your transportation card.

 

In the mid to long term, not only transportation cards but also remittance to credit cards and accounts will be promoted, and the industry will be expanded to retail sector such as marts and pharmacies.

 

The Bank of Korea announced on the 21st [November] that it will provide a service to charge prepaid transportation cards at convenient stores from the first half of next year (2017) as the first stage of the demonstration project to realize “a society without coins”.

What’s happening in Thailand? Well, the government doesn’t even bother with trying to cover up the “scheme” to move people onto the tax farm – currency enslavement awaits for all that enter the great Bangkok Baht giveaway!!!

According to Bangkok.Coconuts.co (published in July 2016):

“Want to win a million baht? Go for e-payment,” says Thailand’s junta, offering a lucky draw as an incentive to use the new online payment scheme “PromptPay.” The government wants to encourage citizens to use the service for business, in an effort to bring some of the massive informal Thai economy onto the books and boost tax revenues.

 

As Southeast Asian economies struggle and tax income misses budget targets, Thailand’s finance minister is hopeful that a nationwide e-payment scheme can add tax revenue of THB100 billion a year to the coffers.

 

Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong has estimated the move will save banks and businesses a combined THB75 billion a year, though other policymakers expect it could take some time for businesses to change their habits. Cash and checks now make up 80 percent of transactions.

 

A coup in May 2014 ended months of political unrest, but the generals have struggled to revive Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy as exports and consumption remain weak.

What about the most populace country on the planet: China? Well, they are, currently, in fourth place in use of digitized currency behind the U.S., Europe and Brazil. While none of these countries have eliminated cash from circulation, the banks/government make is sound “trendy”, convenient and oh so cool to never use cash. Why force a policy change when you can convince the people to hand over their freewill?

Although China still has some way to go before it catches up with countries such as the US and Sweden, the speed at which China has made the shift from cash towards cashless has surprised many. Non-cash payments have been growing by around 40 per cent a year and last year China moved into 4th place in the world for non-cash payments after the US, Europe and Brazil.
 
There are many reasons for China’s rapid transition away from cash. One is urbanisation, as non-cash payments are becoming both easy and popular. This is especially the case in top-tier cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing where it is both trendy and convenient to pay without using cash.
 
There is a huge variety of choices when it comes to making cashless payments and China UnionPay has definitely helped to encourage this, particularly in the case of debit cards, which outnumber credit cards in China by 10 to one. China has more than 4 billion cards on issue – almost enough for each adult to have about three each.
 
Mobile payments have also taken off in China – it has the largest proportion of people in the world using their mobile phones to make payments, online and physically. Source

The purpose of going cashless is not for our “convenience”, it is specifically for the purpose of “saving the banks” and tax collections. Governments and banks could care-less about what is convenient for us. They are only concerned with how much of our wealth they can extract from every person who has any currency.

The population of South Korea is 50.22 million people or said another way about 1/6th the size of the United States. India, on the other hand, is populated by 1.33 BILLION people while there are 7.4 BILLION populating the world. With Thailand making moves to remove cash/coins from the people we need to add their population to the mix as well. With more than 68.22 Million people this brings the number of people that are being forced by their government to use digital currency to a whopping 1.45 BILLION people. If you add 40% of China’s population of 1.35 BILLION that equates to approximately 540 million people the number of people currently living within a cashless society breaches 2 Billion people or said another way 1 out of every 3.5 people we come into contact with everyday. Every 4th person you greet has nothing to do with cash. This does not take in account the top 3 nations using digitized currency for their transactions. If the U.S., Europe and Brazil were calculated we would be well below 1 out of 3 people never using cash for any transaction.

Some people that are reading this are telling themselves “so what?” those are distant far off lands that have nothing to do with the U.S. and this will never happen here. Well, not so fast.

Larry Summers, who is like an embedded tick at the Treasury Department of the United States, has called for the elimination of the $100 bill. With the elimination of the largest denominated bank note from circulation this would effectively kill the use of cash. Why? Because it would eliminate most of the total cash value from circulation in one-fell-swoop.

With $1.2 trillion in cash in circulation, as of July 2013 (now three year old information), not just in the United States but around the world, removing the $100 bill would deal a serious blow to the cash balance in circulation. Maybe not the amount of pieces of paper, but the cash value removed would be huge. Imagine going to a casino and hitting a blackjack table for $2,000 and the cashier hands you bundles of $50 bills (40) or worse, bundles of $20 bills (100)! $2,000 payout at a casino is not that a big deal. Having to handle the sheer volume of bank notes could potentially be a problem for the person receiving the windfall of paper.

If you have any misguided notion that a cashless society is not coming, just keep telling yourself that every time you use a debit card, credit card or your phone for your next purchase. With the elimination of cash we effectively hand over our individual human sovereignty to the banks and the government.

*  *  *

Finally we leave you with Harvard's latest study on which nations would 'benefit' the most from going cashless…

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All Eyes On Monte Paschi, Whose Bailout Is Now In Doubt, And Italian Bank Sector Contagion

As we noted last night, when we previewed the virtually assured “No” vote, we said that “a strong “No” vote will cause Prime Minister Renzi to resign, leading to political instability in Italy. Furthermore, a “No” vote is expected to kill a long-running attempt to rescue Italy’s third largest and oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi, which has been desperate for a private sector bailout ever since it failed this summer’s ECB stress test to avoid broader banking sector contagion; a failure of Monte Paschi will likely spark a fresh eurozone banking crisis, and prompt the ECB to get involved again (as it warned it would do), in a redux of what happened after the Brexit vote.”

Sure enough, as the WSJ wrote moments ago, “when markets open Monday morning, all eyes will be on Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy’s troubled No. 3 lender, which is considered particularly vulnerable to fallout from a ‘no’ vote, which could complicate its plans to raise capital. Investors will be watching closely for any signs of a run on the bank, a situation that could force the government to move quickly with emergency measures.”

For those who have not been following the seeming endless bailout saga, and growing crisis, at Italy’s third largest – and most insolvent – bank, here is the quick rundown:

  • 2007:  Monte dei Paschi buys Banca Antonveneta for EUR9.3 Billion
  • 2011:  European stress test finds the bank has a capital hole of EUR3.3 billion
  • 2012:  MPS’s chairman and top management are replaced
  • 2013:  The lender borrows EUR4 billion from the government to stay afloat
  • June 2014: MPS raises EUR5 billion in fresh capital and pays back EUR3 billion of the government loan
  • Nov. 2014:  New stress tests find the bank the worst capitalized lender in Europe. The ECB takes over as its supervisor. The bank is officially declared up for sale
  • 2015:  MPS raises EUR3 billion in fresh capital and pays back the rest of the government loan
  • 2016:  Announces plan to raise EUR5 billion and sell EUR28 billion in bad loans

Moments ago, the FT reported what we said yesterday in an article according to which the “rescue for the world’s oldest surviving bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena has been thrown into doubt after reformist prime minister Matteo Renzi decisively lost a referendum on constitutional reform on Sunday.”

Monte Paschi and advisers JP Morgan and Mediobanca will meet as early as Monday morning to decide whether to pull a plan to go ahead with a E5bn recapitalisation, according to people informed of the plan, Rachel Sanderson in Milan reports.

 

Senior bankers will decide whether to pursue their underwriting commitment or exercise their right to exit the transaction due to adverse market conditions, these people said. In the event the banks drop the capital plan, the Italian state is expect to nationalise the bank, say senior bankers.

The FT also adds that if Monte Paschi’s private recapitalisation plan fails, Italy is expected to undertake a precautionary recapitalisation of the bank to avoid it being wound down under new EU rules, say people informed of the plan.”One big Monte Paschi investor said the extent of Mr Renzi’s loss was “a really bad result”. This person said they expected the private recapitalisation would be pulled and the Italian state would pump funds into the bank.”

A precautionary recapitalisation, also known as a dreaded bail-in, would involve burden sharing by junior bondholders but with indemnification for investors up to a maximum of €100,000, said three people.

The FT cites officials and bankers who want to head off the risk of a deposit flight from Monte Paschi which has seen its deposits falls by 10 per cent so far this year as concerns about its viability have mounted; alas it is difficult to see how a bailin would achieve that, especially if depositors are impaired. 

* * *

Officials also want to prevent contagion from Monte Paschi hitting Italy’s wider banking sector which is already weighed down by €360n of soured loans, low profitability and more bank branches than pizzerias.

Here, as the WSJ adds, should Monte Paschi’s third bailout attempt fail, the contagion could be swift, “with Italy’s troubled banks among the biggest victims of Italy’s rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposal to make key changes to the country’s constitution.”

Mr. Renzi’s resignation could bring an abrupt end to the government’s efforts to clean up the banking sector, which is suffering from a double whammy of low profitability and huge bad loans.

 

The prospect of political instability has created volatility in financial markets for weeks and Italian banks have markedly underperformed the rest of the Italian stock market this year. In the case of a ‘no’ vote, which now looks all but nailed on, investors are expected to sell off banking stocks in Italy–and possibly other European countries over contagion fears–when trading opens Monday morning.

It’s not just Monte Pashi: The vote could also affect plans by UniCredit SpA, Italy’s largest bank, to raise as much as EUR13 billion. The bank is far healthier than Monte dei Paschi and less exposed to the fallout from the ‘no’ vote, since it could wait for calm to return to the markets before asking shareholders for capital. News could emerge from a Dec. 13 presentation by UniCredit’s top management in London, where they will unveil a new strategy.

There is, of course, the ECB, which warned last week it is prepared to step in and “temporarily step up purchases of Italian government bonds” if tomorrow’s banking sector contagion were to “sharply drive up borrowing costs for the euro zone’s largest debtor.”

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North Dakota Tribes, Activists Win After US Denies Permit Needed To Complete Dakota Access Pipeline

After months of protests by the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe of North Dakota, among others, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers today effectively shut down the project by refusing to approve the last remaining permit required to complete a segment running under Lake Oahe.  Per Reuters, the permit denial was heavily celebrated by protesters in Cannon Ball, North Dakota but means that Energy Transfer Partners will have to go back to the drawing board to identify a new route for the last segment of the 1,172 mile pipeline that is largely already complete.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said on Sunday it turned down a permit for a controversial pipeline project running through North Dakota, in a victory for Native Americans and climate activists who have protested against the project for several months.

 

A celebration erupted at the main protest camp in Cannon Ball, North Dakota, where the Standing Rock Sioux tribe and others have been protesting the 1,172-mile (1,885-km) Dakota Access Pipeline for months.

 

The line, owned by Texas-based Energy Transfer Partners LP, had been complete except for a segment planned to run under Lake Oahe, a reservoir formed by a dam on the Missouri River.

 

That stretch required an easement from federal authorities, which delayed a decision on the permit twice, in an effort to consult further with the tribe.

 

“The Army will not grant an easement to cross Lake Oahe at the proposed location based on the current record,” a statement from the U.S. Army said.

 

As the Standing Rock Chairman Dave Archambault II noted, the tribe will be eternally grateful for Obama’s last parting blow to the oil industry.

In a statement, Standing Rock Chairman Dave Archambault II thanked activists for their support in the protest effort.

 

“The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and all of Indian Country will be forever grateful to the Obama Administration for this historic decision,” he said.

 

“We want to thank everyone who played a role in advocating for this cause. We thank the tribal youth who initiated this movement.”

 

Meanwhile, Energy Transfer Partners will now be forced to either find a new route or hope that the Trump administration will reconsider the federal easement required to finish construction. 

It is unclear what the pipeline route will be, however, and any route would still likely need to cross the Missouri River, probably upstream of Lake Oahe and closer to the state capital of Bismarck. Many pipelines travel under U.S. waterways already, and pipe is considered a safer way to transport crude oil than rail.

 

North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, nodded to the fact that next steps remain unclear, saying in a statement Sunday that the pipeline “still remains in limbo.”

 

What is also unclear as well is whether the incoming administration of Donald Trump may consider taking up Energy Transfer Partners’ request yet again, and approving it. Trump’s transition team last week said that he was supportive of the line, in addition to other pipeline development.

 

“We’re hopeful that when the Trump administration takes office it will look at all of the priorities it has and that putting at risk the water supply of the Standing Rock Sioux isn’t on their list,” said Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club

As we noted a few days ago, Trump has expressed support for the completion of the Dakota Access Pipeline though his support has been complicated by his personal investments in Energy Transfer Partners.  Maybe it’s the cynic in us, but we find it curious that, after sitting silent on this issue for months, the Obama administration, with just a few weeks left in office, would now decide to take definitive action on this issue…just a little parting gift for Trump.

Meanwhile, Paul Ryan, who has been cozying up to the Trump administration in recent weeks, tweeted this moments after the announcement: “This is big-government decision-making at its worst. I look forward to putting this anti-energy presidency behind us.“

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Apple Officially Enters Self-Driving Car Race

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The race for self-driving car technology heats up.

Apple officially tossed its hat into the ring with a letter from Steve Kenner, Apple’s director of product integrity, to the US National Highway Safety Administration.

Rumors of a secret autonomous vehicle lab surfaced earlier this year but Apple denied them. Apple can no longer hide its intent.
 

apple-race

Please consider Apple Reveals Plans for Self-Driving Car.

Apple has for the first time publicly acknowledged its plans to develop self-driving cars, with a letter that urges the US highways regulator to promote “fair competition” between newcomers to the automotive industry and traditional manufacturers.

 

In an unusually direct statement accompanying the letter, an Apple spokesman confirmed its work on autonomous systems that could be used to transform “the future of transportation”. Apple’s letter touts the “significant societal benefits of automated vehicles”, which it described as a life-saving technology, potentially preventing millions of car crashes and thousands of fatalities each year.

 

The disclosure highlights how Apple may struggle to maintain its notorious secrecy in new product development as it enters more highly regulated markets, from transportation to healthcare.

 

Hundreds of Apple staff have been working on an electric car for more than two years, people familiar with the project say. The Financial Times first reported the secret research lab, which is based outside its Cupertino headquarters in neighbouring Sunnyvale, in February last year.

 

Since then, despite leaks about the project’s sometimes difficult progress, Apple executives have refused to admit that the automotive initiative exists.

 

That position will be harder to maintain after the publication of a letter from Apple to the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, as part of the regulator’s regular dialogue with manufacturers about its rules for the fast-developing technology. The letter was signed by Steve Kenner, Apple’s director of product integrity, and was submitted on November 22.

 

An Apple spokesman confirmed the letter, giving the clearest statement yet of the company’s intentions.

 

In one of the five-page letter’s more controversial passages, Apple says that manufacturers should pool their data as they develop automated systems, to help everyone identify the multitude of unusual situations or “edge cases” that cars might encounter on the roads.

 

“Companies should share de-identified scenario and dynamics data from crashes and near-misses,” Apple writes. “By sharing data, the industry will build a more comprehensive data set than any one company could create alone.”

 

“Because automated vehicles promise such a broad and deep human impact, companies should consider the ethical dimensions of them in comparably broad and deep terms,” Apple writes. These considerations include privacy, how the cars’ software systems make decisions and the impact on employment and public spaces, it says.

 

Experts are divided on whether driverless cars could cause huge congestion or clear the roads, and on the extent to which they might free up space in cities that was previously used for parking lots and garages to build new housing or parks. Automation of jobs such as taxi and truck drivers might increase unemployment among low-skilled workers, some analysts have warned.

Another Competitor

As I have been saying for years, self-driving cars and trucks will eliminate millions of jobs no later than a 2022-2024 timeframe.

My number one reason was competition. Add Apple to the list of competitors.

That said, reading between the lines, Apple may be far behind. If Apple was ahead, it just might not be promoting data sharing.

Regardless, Apple has significant resources and wants a piece of the pie. Competition is officially up.

How Many Jobs Lost?

My statement that “millions of long haul truck driving jobs will vanish in the 2022-2024 time frame” is likely way off on the low side if one counts Uber, taxi, and chauffeur driven vehicles.

Take a look at Uber’s goal once again: “replace Uber’s more than 1?million human drivers with robot drivers—as quickly as possible.”

That’s just Uber. And those jobs will vanish. All of them. What about Lyft? Taxis?

Related Articles

For further discussion, including a rebuttal to the often stated claim that driverless vehicles cannot work in snow, please see Uber Offers Driverless Rides This Month! What About Snow, Rain, Pigeons, 80-Year-Olds on Roller Skates?

My long-stated timeframe for millions of long-haul trucking jobs to vanish by the 2022-2024 is likely too distant.

The components are all in place. Regulation has five years to catch up, and it will. Competition ensures success and DOT is already on board.

Amusingly, some accused me of being “religious” when it comes to self-driving vehicles. This is not religion, this is science, and it will happen far sooner than deniers think, and quite possibly sooner than I think.

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Trump Saber Rattles China, Heightens His Anti-Globalist Rhetoric on Twitter

At some point, the non believers will have to start learning the old fashioned way. Trump has been very transparent from day 1. If you fuck with American business or its people, he’s going to use the full powers of his office to exact a reckoning. Since the election, the mindless drones on Wall Street have taken a very bullish position on China — bidding up steel, aluminum and copper stocks without a care in the world. If Trump is truly sincere about protecting US industry from unfair and corrupt Chinese trade practices, which entails dumping and currency manipulation, as well as unfair taxation on US goods entering the country, then this entire dream of a run will be revoked and the nightmare for the status quo will begin — in earnest. Trump talks to the people directly, laying into China and setting a tone.

Obviously, this is in response to the media’s absurd objections to Trump accepting a phone call from the democratically elected President of Taiwan, which was deriding by the left because it might upset the apple cart of the status quo relationship with communist China. Think about that.

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Matteo Renzi To Deliver Statement After Losing Referendum: Live Feed

As was reported earlier, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is expected to deliver a statement on the Italian referendum at midnight Italian time. According to Italy’s RAI, the statement has been delayed by 20 minutes. It is unclear what the topic of Renzi’s statement will be although speculation is rampant that the 41 year old prime minister may announce his resignation, opening the way for a new government and/or new elections.

Moments ago, the Twitter-loving prime minister, sent out the following tweet to his nearly 2.8 million followed: “Thanks to all of you. In a few minutes I will be speaking to you directly from Palazzo Chigi. Long live Italy. PS Am coming, am coming’

Meanwhile, his nemesis Beppe Grillo of the Five Star momvement, likewise tweeted that “the train has departed”

Watch Renzi’s speech live below:

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Baltimore Cops Ask For Help After 73-Year-Old Man Stabbed To Death In Broad Daylight

Submitted by Kristinn Taylor via The Gateway Pundit blog,

Seeking help from the public in identifying the killer, Baltimore police released a video Saturday of the murder of an elderly man who was stabbed to death by a young Black male in broad daylight on a main Baltimore highway Friday afternoon.

“Video shows attacker stabbing 73-year-old man http://dlvr.it/MpFtwX”

The video shows the elderly man standing on a sidewalk holding a cane and carrying a package exchanging words with a young Black male wearing a hoodie.

The elderly man walks away and the young Black male walks up behind him, grabs the man and throws him on the grass by the sidewalk. The elderly man tries to use his cane to fend off the young Black male. The young Black male pulls what appears to be a knife from his pocket and tries repeatedly with his right hand to stab the elderly man sprawled on his back on the grass. The young Black male stabs the elderly in the side, but then the elderly man kicks the young Black male away several times. Eventually the young Black male is able to lunge past the elderly man’s legs and stabs him in the gut.

Baltimore police posted the following description with the video.

Search is on for suspect in murder of 73 y/o man on Pulaski Hwy.

Southeast District
Homicide Investigation

On December 2, 2016, at approximately 4:00pm, officers were called to the intersection of Pulaski Highway and Highland Avenue for a report of a stabbing. When officers arrived, they found a 73-year old man with a stab wound to his stomach. The victim was transported to an area hospital where he later died from his injuries.

Homicide detectives were called to the scene and are investigating this incident. Detectives believe the victim was involved in an argument when was stabbed by a suspect. Anyone with information is asked to call Metro Crime Stoppers at 1-866-7Lockup.

Suspect:
Black Male, approx. 5’9″-5’10”, thin build, dark complexion, early 20s, wearing an Army green coat with possible scars or tattoos on his face.”

Police have not released the murder victim’s name nor anymore about him beyond his sex, age and that he walked with a cane.

The video of the attack does not show the complete attack as police in the YouTube video state that several people tried to pull the young Black male off the elderly man. That effort by the Good Samaritans is not shown.

So far, there are no reported riots in Baltimore over this unprovoked murder of an unarmed elderly man.

In an effort to reach as many people as possible to solve the case as soon as possible, Baltimore police also posted the video of the murder to Facebook and Twitter.

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Army Corps of Engineers Halts Work on Dakota Access Pipeline

StandingRockPacificNewsSipaUSANewscomThe apparent decision by the Army Corps of Engineers to not grant an easement for the Dakota Access Pipeline to cross under Lake Oahe was announced via a tweet from the Standing Rock protesters in North Dakota. Evidently, the Corps has decided to conduct an additional environmental assessment seeking alternative routes. From the New York Times:

In a statement on Sunday, the Army’s Assistant Secretary for Civil Works, Jo-Ellen Darcy, said that the decision was based on a need to explore alternate routes for the pipeline crossing.

“Although we have had continuing discussion and exchanges of new information with the Standing Rock Sioux and Dakota Access, it’s clear that there’s more work to do,” Ms. Darcy said. “The best way to complete that work responsibly and expeditiously is to explore alternate routes for the pipeline crossing.”

The consideration of alternative routes “would be best accomplished through an Environmental Impact Statement with full public input and analysis,” Ms Darcy said in a statement.

This decision may address the expressed concerns of the Standind Rock Sioux Tribe about protecting drinking water sources and sacred sites, but it does not mean that the pipeline will not get built. It is worth noting that the land through which the pipeline was routed is privately owned and the easements were reportedly acquired without the exercise of eminent domain.

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Renzi Loses Italian Referendum By Wide Margin; “Northern League” Calls For Early Elections – Live Blog

Update #2: Following the exit polls and the market's response, "Northern League" leader Salvini has called for early elections:

  • SALVINI: NO VICTORY WOULD MEAN PEOPLE DEFEATING ESTABLISHMENT
  • ITALY NORTHERN LEAGUE LEADER CALLS FOR EARLY ELECTIONS: MNI

*  *  *

Update #1: The Exit polls have begun:

  • *ITALY REFERENDUM: 'NO' AT 55%-59% IN EMG EXIT POLL
  • *ITALY REFERENDUM: 'NO' AT 55%-59% IN TECNE EXIT POLL
  • *ITALY REFERENDUM: 'NO' AT 54%-58% IN RAI EXIT POLL

Exit polls have at times proved unreliable in Italy, underestimating Renzi’s 2014 victory in European elections by 10 percentage points, but for now, the market seems convinced…

EURUSD is tumbling…

Some comments from anti-establishmentarians have begin:

  • LE PEN AIDE ON ITALIAN REFERENDUM RESULT TWEETS 'IT'S A GREAT VICTORY FOR THE PEOPLE…IT'S FOR OTHER NATIONS TO BE SET FREE'

Turnout was high.

 

  • *ITALY REFERENDUM: ITALIANS ABROAD TURNOUT 30.9%:FOREIGN OFFICE

So what happens next? We leave it to Doug Casey to sum it all up succinctly:

December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses

How did we get here? Here's a quick timeline from Bloomberg's Marco Bertacche

  • April 15, 2014: The Senate approves first version of reform, backed by Renzi allies and Berlusconi's party
  • Jan. 31, 2015: Renzi's candidate is elected president of the republic, prompting Berlusconi to withdraw support for reforms
  • April 12, 2016: Lower house completes approval, lacking two-thirds majority needed to avoid referendum
  • Aug. 4, 2016: Highest court accepts referendum request with more than 500,000 signatures from Yes campaign
  • Sept. 26, 2016: Renzi's cabinet calls for Dec. 4 referendum. Decision is binding

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, Italians voted Sunday in a referendum on constitutional reforms that Premier Matteo Renzi has staked his political future on, hoping to survive the rising populist forces that have gained traction across Europe.

Renzi has said he will resign if the reforms, which he contends will modernize Italy and reduce its legendary bureaucracy, are rejected. Opposition politicians, ranging from the far-right to the far-left have vowed to press for a new government if voters reject Parliamentary legislation overhauling much of the post-war Constitution.

Even some figures in Renzi's Democratic Party, including ex-Communists, said they'd vote against the reforms.

 

Polling stations are open from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. local time (5pmET).

Bloomberg lays out what to expect, and when…

1500ET

Provisional turnout results for the vote as of 7 p.m. CET could indicate whether turnout is high in the South and Sicily, where anti-establishment parties are strong, which would signal bad news for Renzi. A high turnout in the Center and Northwest, his strongholds, may not be enough for him but could narrow the final margin. Renzi has indicated he’s aiming for a 60 percent turnout.

Overall turnout was around the 60% Renzi had expected, with a higher turnout in the North (more pro-Renzi) and lower turnout in the South (more anti-establishment)…

 

1800ET

Exit polls are published by at least three TV networks (RAI, LA7, Mediaset). Exit polls have often gotten it wrong in Italy. In the 2013 and 2006 general elections they overestimated the center-left’s lead by more than 5 points, and in 2008 they underestimated Silvio Berlusconi’s lead by 7 points. In the 2014 European elections, Renzi’s Democratic Party got almost 10 points more than exit polls predicted.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to speak at about midnight local time (6pmET) at his Rome residence, newswire Ansa citing his office.

1830-1845ET

First projections on counted votes may be published on TV stations. Votes will be counted continuously and updated on the Interior Ministry’s website throughout the night. A national total as well as regional and city breakdowns will be available.

1900ET

First provisional results from cities usually faster at counting votes should start coming in. Before a two-week poll blackout period, the “Yes” and “No” camps polled virtually even in the Northwest (Milan, Turin) and in the Center (Bologna), with the "No" side clearly ahead in the South (Naples) and in Sicily (Palermo). Milan could give the earliest real indication of where things are going. Traditionally a Berlusconi stronghold, it swung to center-left administrations in past years and elected a center-left mayor backing Renzi’s reforms in June. A wide lead for “No” in Milan could mean Renzi loses nationally.

 

1900-2000ET

New projections could indicate a winner before real vote counting is complete.

Before 2200ET

There may be a final result of counted votes nationally, but results from 4 million Italians abroad, who were eligible to vote until Dec. 1, could come later. While their turnout is typically lower than the national average, they have trended toward center-left candidates in recent elections and are usually pro-government. These voters weren’t included in pre-blackout polls. Their votes could come into play if the referendum margin is very close. Reports indicate that turnout for Italians abroad was higher than expected.

0200ET

Matteo Renzi is known to be tweeting extensively and could announce his decision on whether to offer his resignation, based on the referendum results, through social media.

So what happens next? We leave it to Doug Casey to sum it all up succinctly:

December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses

via http://ift.tt/2gWfGVm Tyler Durden