Month: April 2017

The Russian Investigative Committee has revealed the identity of a 22-year-old man who blew himself up in the Saint Petersburg subway on Monday, killing 14 and injuring dozens of people. The suicide bomber was revealed to be Kyrgyzstan native Akbarzhon Dzhalilov. He was born on April 1, 1995.

“Following a genetic examination and analysis of CCTV footages, the investigation assumes that this particular person who carried out the suicide attack also left a bag containing the explosive device at Ploshchad Vosstaniya,” the committee said. Earlier in the day, Petrenko told Interfax that the Investigative Committee, assisted by the FSB and the Interior Ministry’s rapid response teams, conducted an examination of “fragmented remains” found inside the third car and were able to establish that the terrorist suspect was male.

“The investigation established the identity of the man who carried out an explosion in the metro train carriage in St. Petersburg. It was Akbarzhon Dzhalilov, born on 01.04.1995,” committee spokeswoman Svetlana Petrenko told reporters.

The statement comes as the death toll continues to rise. Earlier on Tuesday, Russian Health Minister Veronika Skvortsova said three more blast victims had succumbed to their injuries, increasing the number of fatalities from eleven to fourteen.

Earlier, Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security (GKNB) said that “a person of Kyrgyz origin, [who] is now a Russian citizen, is the possible perpetrator of the attack.” According to Sputnik, the same man had left a bag with an explosive device on the Ploschad Vosstaniya subway station. It was neutralized by specialists

Dzhalilov’s motives remain unclear and while Islam has not been mentioned yet as a factor behind the terrorist attack, the suspect was born in a hotspot breeding ground for jihad the Washington Times notes. “Regarding the link with Islamic radicalism, we have to wait to know more until the investigation yields its full results,” said Erlan Abyldaev, the foreign minister, at a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

State security officials said Dzhalilov hailed from Osh, a volatile region of Kyrgyzstan known for ethnic conflicts and home-grown jihadi plots. As The Washington Post reported: “The city is located in the Ferghana Valley, an area shared by three former Soviet republics that is known as a breeding ground for extremism in Central Asia.”

It is unclear if Dzhalilov had been radicalized. The New York Times noted ISIS has recruited hundreds of terror members from the region of Dzhalilov’s home, Osh.

“[It’s not known] whether the authorities believed Dzhalilov had acted alone or in concert with others, whether he had any ties to Islamic or other militant groups, or even whether he survived the attack,” The New York Times reported.

No group has so far claimed responsibility for this attack, something ISIS has been all too happy to do in previous terrorist attacks.

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After it was revealed over the weekend by Mike Cernovich that Susan Rice was the mysterious Obama official behind the “unmasking” of Trump associates, the details behind the extreme measures taken by the Obama administration, including what seems to be personal legal liability for Susan Rice and potentially others, continue to grow more and more disturbing. 

This morning, the Daily Caller has provided new details, courtesy of former U.S. Attorney Joseph diGenova, suggesting that Rice specifically requested that the NSA provide her with “detailed spreadsheets of intercepted phone calls with unmasked Trump associates.”

“What was produced by the intelligence community at the request of Ms. Rice were detailed spreadsheets of intercepted phone calls with unmasked Trump associates in perfectly legal conversations with individuals,” diGenova told The Daily Caller News Foundation Investigative Group Monday.

 

“The overheard conversations involved no illegal activity by anybody of the Trump associates, or anyone they were speaking with,” diGenova said. “In short, the only apparent illegal activity was the unmasking of the people in the calls.”

Meanwhile, Retired Colonel James Waurishuk, an NSC veteran and former deputy director for intelligence at the U.S. Central Command, said that the level of coordination required to pull off such a massive spying operation is staggering and would have required numerous personnel from the White House, NSA, CIA, National Security Council, etc.    

“The surveillance initially is the responsibility of the National Security Agency,” Waurishuk said. “They have to abide by this guidance when one of the other agencies says, ‘we’re looking at this particular person which we would like to unmask.’”

 

“The lawyers and counsel at the NSA surely would be talking to the lawyers and members of counsel at CIA, or at the National Security Council or at the Director of National Intelligence or at the FBI,” he said. “It’s unbelievable of the level and degree of the administration to look for information on Donald Trump and his associates, his campaign team and his transition team.  This is really, really serious stuff.”

In other words, it’s growing increasingly unlikely that this operation was anything but a direct, targeted attempt of the Obama administration to utilize the full force of the U.S. intelligence apparatus to take down a political adversary.

 

As Michael Doran points out, if these alleged actions are proven to be accurate then several people within the Obama administration likely committed felonies.

Michael Doran, former NSC senior director, told TheDCNF Monday that “somebody blew a hole in the wall between national security secrets and partisan politics.” This “was a stream of information that was supposed to be hermetically sealed from politics and the Obama administration found a way to blow a hole in that wall.”

 

Doran charged that potential serious crimes were undertaken because “this is a leaking of signal intelligence.”

 

“That’s a felony,” he told TheDCNF. “And you can get 10 years for that. It is a tremendous abuse of the system. We’re not supposed to be monitoring American citizens. Bigger than the crime, is the breach of public trust.”

 

Waurishuk said he was most dismayed that “this is now using national intelligence assets and capabilities to spy on the elected, yet-to-be-seated president.”

 

“We’re looking at a potential constitutional crisis from the standpoint that we used an extremely strong capability that’s supposed to be used to safeguard and protect the country,” he said. “And we used it for political purposes by a sitting President. That takes on a new precedent.”

Of course, just because Obama used the NSA to try and take down Trump doesn’t mean that those allegations that he used the IRS to take out Romney supporters in 2012 were true….Scandal-free administration…

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Hungarian lawmakers from Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party approved a law that could force a university founded by financier George Soros out of the country despite a protest against the plan in Budapest and condemnation abroad. The legislation passed with 123 votes in favor and 38 against, while 38 deputies did not vote. Voting was briefly interrupted by the sound of a siren blaring from a megaphone held up by an independent lawmaker in protest.

Addressing parliament before the vote, Orban’s human affairs minister said institutions backed by Soros were trying to undermine Hungary’s government by “averting democratic rules”.

The bill passed despite days of protests (sponsored by Soros’ very own Open Society according to some skeptics) and culminates a conflict that’s become emblematic of concerns that “liberal democracy” according to Bloomberg, or at least George Soros’ influence, is in retreat in the eastern European nation.

On Friday, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a staunch critic of Soros and his various liberal civil organizations said the Central European University had violated regulations in awarding its diplomas, an allegation the college firmly rejected.  Parliament, where Orban’s party has a commanding majority, approved the bill tightening regulation on foreign universities on Tuesday, the same day legislators had the first chance to debate it. Ruling-party lawmakers on late Monday amended the bill, tightening deadlines for universities to meet new regulations. The bill modifies rules regulating the 28 foreign universities in Hungary.

Orban has regularly blamed the Hungarian-born billionaire investor and philanthropist, who also funds organizations that seek to promote human rights and government transparency, for trying to undermine him.

This weekend, thousands of Hungarians marched to protest for academic freedom in response to the legislation. The government denies it’s targeting Central European University, the institution Soros “founded to train a new generation of democratic leaders in eastern Europe after decades of communism.”

Soros’ Central European University said parts of the bill directly target it, and could force it to close. Orban, a former Soros scholarship recipient, has been increasingly critical of the Hungarian-born philanthropist, accusing him of wanting to influence Hungarian politics. Last week the PM accused the CEU of “cheating” because it did not have a campus in its country of origin and because it issued diplomas recognized both in Hungary and the United States, giving it an undue advantage over local institutions. The CEU is accredited in New York state but does not have a U.S. campus.

The U.S. State Department as well as hundreds of academics and universities have expressed support for CEU, founded in 1991. It currently enrolls 1,400 students from 108 countries.

As Bloomberg adds, Zoltan Balog, whose ministry oversees education, appeared to link CEU to the non-governmental organizations supported by Soros in Hungary. Speaking at the start of the debate in parliament, he described them as “faux-civic, agent organizations” seeking to hinder the democratically-elected Hungarian government. “We are committed to preventing this activity with every legal means,” Balog said.

Meanwhile, leaders at CEU have vowed to keep the university open. “If the bill passes, it would mark the first time that a member of the European Union dared to legislate an attack on the academic freedom of a university,” CEU rector Michael Ignatieff said in an opinion article in The New York Times on Sunday. “It would also mark the first time that an American ally, a member of NATO, openly attacked an American institution on its soil.”

Ignatieff added that the bill aimed to “send a chill through Hungarian higher education and eliminate one of the few remaining institutions in Hungary that can stand up to the government.”

The draft bill requires the governments of the U.S. and Hungary to agree on new terms for the university’s operations within the next few months. If a deal doesn’t materialize, CEU would be banned from enrolling new students after Jan. 1, 2018 and would have to conclude its educational activities by 2021.

Balog said Hungary’s government was ready to negotiate with the U.S. government on an agreement about the university. However, he added that “We are committed to use all legal means at our disposal to stop pseudo-civil society spy groups such as the ones funded by George Soros.” It does not appear that there will be an amicable resolution.

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The US Trade Balance shrank to $43.6 billion in February (the smallest deficit since October and smaller than all economists’ estimates). Imports fell modestly (-1.8%) and exports inched higher (+0.2%) as it seems a notably weaker dollar did nothing to help. Notably US’ trade deficit with China is down 4.9% on a year-to-date, year-over-year basis.

The deficit decreased from $48.2 billion in January (revised) to $43.6 billion in February, as exports increased and imports decreased. The previously published January deficit was $48.5 billion. The goods deficit decreased $4.6 billion in February to $65.0 billion. The services surplus increased less than $0.1 billion in February to $21.4 billion.

Exports

Exports of goods and services increased $0.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, in February to $192.9 billion. Exports of goods increased $0.4 billion and exports of services increased less than $0.1 billion.

The increase in exports of goods mostly reflected increases in consumer goods ($0.7 billion), in other goods ($0.5 billion), and in industrial supplies and materials ($0.4 billion). Decreases in foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.7 billion) and in capital goods ($0.6 billion) were partly offsetting.

The increase in exports of services reflected nearly offsetting changes of $0.1 billion or less in all categories.

Imports

Imports of goods and services decreased $4.3 billion, or 1.8 percent, in February to $236.4 billion. Imports of goods decreased $4.2 billion and imports of services decreased less than $0.1 billion.

The decrease in imports of goods mostly reflected decreases in consumer goods ($3.1 billion) and in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($2.6 billion). An increase in industrial supplies and materials ($1.4 billion) was partly offsetting.

The decrease in imports of services reflected nearly offsetting changes of $0.1 billion or less in all categories.

*  *  *

This should make Trump happy heading into the meetings with Xi – as his ‘deficit’ is relatively lower.

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Buy Gold – 46 Trillion Reasons to Buy

By Robert Guy in Barron’s

Gold’s 200-day moving average again proved to be a barrier for the precious metal, which in late Asian trading was around $1,250 an ounce. It had traded as high as $1,258 an ounce overnight.

Gold in USD 1 Year – GoldCore.com

But the pullback is unlikely to dent the faith of gold bulls who remain convinced that the yellow metal’s worth will be proved over coming years as the Fed attempts to normalize U.S. interest rates.

One bull is Trey Reik, a senior portfolio manager with Sprott Asset Management. In a new commentary, he’s convinced that gold’s value as protector of portfolios will become apparent as the Fed hikes rates at a time of low quality U.S. growth and high valuations on financial assets. Here’s his take:

“We maintain high confidence that the eroding quality of U.S. economic growth guarantees that U.S. financial asset prices will eventually reflect their true eroding intrinsic value, to gold’s significant benefit. Along the way, such as during the S&P 500 Index declines of 2000-2002 (50%) and 2007-2009 (57%), gold has provided unparalleled portfolio protection as over-exuberant faith in U.S. financial assets has been punished.”

He points out that since the first quarter of 2009, U.S. household net worth has increased $38.016 trillion – from $54.790 trillion to $92.805 trillion – compared to a $4.766 trillion increase in nominal GDP (from $14.090 trillion to $18.856 trillion). That means U.S. household net worth has grown at eight times the rate of underlying GDP growth.

U.S. household net worth ($92.805 trillion) is now 492% of GDP, which is 40% higher than the 353% average during the five decades prior to the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen era. That’s a pace of growth viewed as unsustainable.

Here’s Reik in his own words:

“Given the poor savings and growth rates of the past 16 years, our model suggests it would not be unreasonable for the ratio of HHNW-to-GDP to clear somewhere between 250% and 300%, implying a decline of between $36 trillion and $46 trillion in the aggregate value of the three major U.S. asset classes (stocks, bonds and real estate).”

The other issue that may play in gold’s favor is the pressure that may be brought to bear on corporate debt if the Fed raises rates as expected:

“Should the Fed’s recent shift in rate-hike urgency prove to be motivated by concern for stretched valuations of U.S. financial assets, as we suspect, it will be interesting to see just how far the Fed will go to press its message. We have long suggested the Fed’s reticence to raise rates has reflected concern for the instability of excessive U.S. debt loads, and now the Fed may finally be forced to raise rates out of concern for the instability of excessive U.S. equity valuations. Our long-term expectation of a “rock and a hard place” may be the immediate reality in which the Fed now finds itself.

If so, gold’s role as productive portfolio diversifier is about to reassume center stage.”

Full Barron’s Asia article here

 

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold rises to 1-week high on weaker dollar, geopolitical worries (Yahoo Finance)

Gold logs second straight gain as U.S. ISM data disappoint (MarketWatch.com)

Asia Stocks Drop as Yen Gains, Auto Shares Slump (Bloomberg.com)

UK airports and nuclear power stations on terror alert after ‘credible’ cyber threat (Metro.co.uk)

Dubai Precious Metals Conference to focus on blockchain technology (EconoTimes.com)

Gold: 46 Trillion Reasons to Buy (Barrons.com)

Infinite imaginary supply from futures keeps silver down (TFMetalsReport.com)

Prepare For “Manias, Panics And Crashes” Ominous Warning From Bank Of America (ZeroHedge.com)

Pension Timebomb Cometh – Keiser Report (MaxKeiser.com)

How today’s two biggest investment fads are setting up the next crash (MoneyWeek.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

04 Apr: USD 1,258.65, GBP 1,011.07 & EUR 1,181.49 per ounce
03 Apr: USD 1,246.25, GBP 997.25 & EUR 1,168.48 per ounce
31 Mar: USD 1,241.70, GBP 996.46 & EUR 1,161.98 per ounce
30 Mar: USD 1,250.90, GBP 1,005.72 & EUR 1,165.34 per ounce
29 Mar: USD 1,252.90, GBP 1,007.71 & EUR 1,161.19 per ounce
28 Mar: USD 1,253.65, GBP 996.15 & EUR 1,154.49 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 1,256.90, GBP 1,000.49 & EUR 1,157.86 per oun

Silver Prices (LBMA)

04 Apr: USD 18.34, GBP 14.73 & EUR 17.23 per ounce
03 Apr: USD 18.16, GBP 14.52 & EUR 17.05 per ounce
31 Mar: USD 18.06, GBP 14.50 & EUR 16.91 per ounce
30 Mar: USD 18.10, GBP 14.53 & EUR 16.85 per ounce
29 Mar: USD 18.13, GBP 14.58 & EUR 16.81 per ounce
28 Mar: USD 17.94, GBP 14.29 & EUR 16.53 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 17.94, GBP 14.25 & EUR 16.51 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Gold and Silver Best Performing Assets In Q1, 2017
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– ‘Three Wise Men’ Warn Crash Coming, Own Gold
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– Peak Gold – Biggest Gold Story Not Being Reported
– Silver 1/ 70th The Price of Gold – Silver Eagles Sales Jump
– The Best Ways to Invest in Gold Today
– Gold Cup – Horse Racing’s Greatest Show, Gambling and ‘Going for Gold’

 

Access Award Winning Daily and Weekly Updates Here

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Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

In 2008, subprime mortgages almost single-handedly took down the entire financial system, and now a new subprime crisis is here. 

In recent years, the auto industry has been able to boost sales by aggressively pushing people into auto loans that they cannot afford.  In particular, auto loans made to consumers with subprime credit have been accounting for an increasingly larger percentage of the market.  Unfortunately, when you make loans to people that should not be getting them, eventually a lot of those loans are going to start to go bad, and that is precisely what is happening now.  Meanwhile, automakers and dealers are starting to panic as sales have begun to fall and used car prices have started to crash.  If you work in the auto industry, you might remember how horrible the last recession was, and this new downturn could eventually turn out to be even worse.  The following are 12 signs that a day of reckoning has arrived for the U.S. auto industry…

#1 Seven out of the eight largest automakers in the United States fell short of their sales projections in March.

#2 Overall, U.S. auto sales so far in 2017 have been described as a “disaster” despite record spending on consumer incentives by automakers.

#3 Dealer inventories are now at the highest level that we have seen since the last financial crisis.  Why this is so troubling is because there are a whole lot of unsold vehicles just sitting there doing nothing, and this is becoming a major financial problem for many dealers.

#4 It now takes an average of 74 days before a dealer is able to sell a new vehicle.  This number is also the highest that it has been since the last financial crisis.

#5 Not only is Ford projecting that sales will fall this year, they are also projecting that sales will fall in 2018 as well.

#6 Used vehicle prices are already starting to decline dramatically…

The used-vehicle price index from the National Automobile Dealers Association posted a 3.8% decline in February compared to the prior month. NADA also said wholesale prices fell 1.6%.

#7 As I discussed yesterday, Morgan Stanley is projecting that used car prices “could crash by up to 50%” over the next four or five years.

#8 Right now, more than a million Americans are behind on their payments on their auto loans.  This is something that has not happened since the last financial crisis.

#9 In 2017, U.S. consumers are more “underwater” on their auto loans than they have ever been before.

#10 Subprime auto loan losses have soared to their highest level since the last financial crisis, and the delinquency rate on those loans has risen to the highest level that we have seen since the last financial crisis.  By now, I am sure that you are starting to notice a pattern in these data points.

#11 At this moment, approximately $200,000,000,000 has been loaned out by auto lenders to consumers with subprime credit.

#12 Just like with subprime mortgages in the run up to the last financial crisis, subprime auto loans have been bundled together and sold as “securities” to investors.  And just like last time around, this has turned out to be a recipe for disaster…

Many auto loans, including those considered subprime, are securitized and sold to investors. But Morgan Stanley recently reported that the share of auto securities tied to “deep subprime” loans – those given to borrowers with a FICO credit score below 550 — has risen from 5.1 percent in 2010 to 32.5 percent today. It said defaults on those bonds have risen significantly in the past five years.

 

Almost a quarter of the more than $1.1 trillion in U.S. auto loan debt is owed by subprime borrowers, and delinquency rates have hit their highest point in seven years.

In the old days, you could always count on the U.S. auto industry to bounce back eventually because of the economic strength of average U.S. consumers.

Unfortunately, the middle class in America is being systematically hollowed out by long-term economic trends that our leaders in Washington D.C. have consistently ignored.

We have become a nation of economic extremes.  There are more millionaires in this country than ever before, but meanwhile poverty is exploding in communities all over the country.

If you live in a prosperous area, things may be going great where you live for the moment.  But as Gallup has discovered, an all-time record high percentage of Americans are worrying “a great deal” about hunger and homelessness these days…

Over the past two years, an average of 67% of lower-income U.S. adults, up from 51% from 2010-2011, have worried “a great deal” about the problem of hunger and homelessness in the country. Concern has also increased among middle- and upper-income Americans, but they still worry far less than do lower-income Americans.

You may have plenty of money in your bank account, and so for you hunger and homelessness are not very big issues.  But for those that are just scraping by from month to month, having enough food and a place to sleep at night are top priorities.  Here is more from Gallup…

Americans at all income levels are expressing greater concern about hunger and homelessness, and it is the top worry among lower-income Americans, who are most likely to struggle to pay for adequate food and housing.

In addition to the woes of the auto industry, the retail industry is going through the worst wave of store closings in modern American history, pension funds are melting down all over the nation, and stocks are primed for a crash of epic proportions.  Things are lining up just right for the kind of scenario that I laid out in The Beginning Of The End, but unfortunately most people are not listening to the warnings.

The same thing happened just before the great financial crisis of 2008.  All of the warning signs were there well in advance, and many of the experts were warning about what was coming as early as 2005.  But because it did not happen immediately, a lot of people greatly mocked the warnings.

But then the fall of 2008 arrived and all of the mockers suddenly went silent.

As you can see from the numbers that I shared above, a new crisis has already arrived.

The only question now is how bad it will ultimately turn out to be.

As always, let us hope for the best, but let us also get prepared for the worst.

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From Blain’s Morning Porridge by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

This morning we’ve got a Risk-Off blip as the market winds itself into a tizz because suddenly the US recovery isn’t looking so well founded on the back of yesterday’s slowing Auto-sales number. Shock and horror! And it might get worse… we’ve got employment numbers on Friday, (which might be less strong than expected, therefore confirming it’s the end of everything), and who knows what Trump will say to China… 

Stop! No need to panic.. Worry, yes.

Panic.. not yet. 

If I were to take heed of everything I read across the financial media/blogo/analysis-o-sphere, I’d not only be utterly confused, but probably wrong. However, it feels like time to figure out if I am a bull or a bear, and what the consequences for bonds and stocks are likely to be..

Markets feel a tad binary at the moment. Up or down? Pass me that bright new shiny multi-sided UK pound coin and let’s flip it…

Heads:  there is still a very positive sentiment “thread” across markets. Its based around stronger European growth in Germany, Northern Europe, France and Spain, recovering sentiment towards Sterling, the Fed playing a smart catch-up game on rates as the US economy will continues to strengthen and justify current equity valuations. Generally it’s a “relax… it will be alright” vibe to activity. My stock picking colleagues say there is no sustained selling pressure.

This positive “never mind the torpedoes” approach plays up Macro expectations. My macro economist, Martin Malone is a beaming bull – confident the hard data of economic growth will catch up and justify the soft noise markets currently trade on. Yesterday he was saying: “The rates and macro environment remains bullish for asset prices.”

Martin points to global equities adding around $6 trillion in value over the past 6 months – despite all the political ructions, upsets, surprises, uncertainties and the bafflement that passes for modern politics. He makes a good point – despite Trump and Brexit confounding the establishment – we’re still up! Europe is worth watching – outperformance is likely because it’s been lagging the US, and the ECB will remain accommodative.

Or

Tails: the other side of the sentiment coin remains very negative – predicting breakdown across all the above markers, fuelled by political fears from just about every corner of the globe.. (I’ve never understood that particular cliché; the globe is a globe and has no corners.. but…) Think about the Trump risk (ie failed “reform” and “China risk” this week), Korea, The Russian Outrage yesterday, France (must watch the debate tonight), or Europe and Brexit risks.

Some of that negativity is reflected in the risk-off theme this morning. The doomsters are warning that the Republican/Trump failure to manage the US political process delaying any reform, and the possibility the US earnings season might be disappointing, means that stock market valuations can’t be contained, and they are getting panicky wondering what will happen if/when the Fed starts to wind down its balance sheet….

And looking at some of the recent numbers on US household debt, a worrying trend hits me. While mortgage debt and credit card debt is down – and is more concentrated among the wealthier older generation, student loans and auto-debt have risen dramatically. US society is more and more divided into haves and have-nots.

Education and Autos are the two sectors of the US retail debt market causing the most concern among followers of recent financial history – many are predicting we’ll get a 2007 sub-prime crisis from cars or students.

The long-term implications of indentured slavery among young college graduates and no one able to afford pick-up trucks are unknown, but guessable. Diminished consumer wealth as the US workforce grows older mired in high-debt while facing fewer job opportunities as robotisation takes hold. Meanwhile, the car industry looks founded in sand as smokestack pick-up trucks look unaffordable, and the tech giants plan a car revolution based on Teslas for the mega-wealthy, Mac-Cars for the hipsters and UBERs for the rest of us.

I can’t help but think that’s not a positive vision for broad-based US growth?

Meanwhile, probably lots of other things like European banks and such we should be worrying about.. but they can wait for tomorrow!

So am I a bull or a bear..?
 
Out of time!

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