‘Soft’ Data Slammed As Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 6-Month Lows: “Bodes Ill For Second Quarter”

Just as we warned was historical precedent, it appears the hope and hype in 'soft' survey data is catching back down to 'hard' data's reality.

 

Markit's US Manufacturing PMI printed a disappinting 53.3 for March (final) – the lowest since September – as New Orders tumbled and input costs soared to 30 month highs.

ISM Manufacturing drifted lower for the first time since August, printing an inline 57.2. But the pattern was the same with New Orders dropping as Prices Paid surges

Unadjusted new orders hit their highest in over 4 years…

NOTE the chart below – ISM seems to track stocks, PMI seems more 'real'

 

 

Commenting on the final PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

The post-election resurgence of the manufacturing sector seen late last year is showing signs of losing steam. Output growth slowed to a six-month low in March, optimism about the outlook has waned and hiring has slowed accordingly.

 

“While the survey data suggest that the goods producing sector enjoyed a relatively good first quarter on the whole, the loss of momentum seen in February and March bodes ill for the second quarter.

 

“The survey data have acted as a reliable advance guide to official data in the past, and in March indicate a slowing of output growth to an annualised rate of around 2%. The survey’s employment index is meanwhile consistent with official manufacturing payroll numbers falling slightly.

 

“If the activity numbers send a dovish signal topolicymakers, the survey’s price indices favour the hawks. Inflationary pressures have risen to a two and a half year high, despite the oil price easing during the month.”

Evidently stagflationary pressures are growing ever stronger.

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Sell in May go away signal, come a month early?

Most are familiar with the idea of “Sell in May and go away.” Should one take this advice and sell a month earlier this year?

The chart below is from good friend Ryan Detrick, looking at monthly returns of the S&P 500’s performance, over four different time frames.

S&P 500 performance since 1028

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The above chart reflects a couple of things; April has historically been a month that it has paid to be long stocks. The window from May through October has been softer, than the other 6-months of the year.

The two charts below of the Russell 2000 index might be very important to keep an eye on.  Both are monthly charts, with the left chart looking at patterns since the early 1990’s and the right chart just the past few years.

Russell Monthly

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The left chart above highlights that the Russell 2000 has remained inside of a rising channel for the past 20-years. On 6/1/15 at (1), the Russell index created a “Doji Star” pattern a the top of the rising channel at (1). In 2015, the “Sell in May” was spot on for the Russell 2000 index, as it peaked in June and then proceed to decline nearly 20% going into the fall of 2015.

This year, Small Caps are testing the top of this long term channel and could have created a “Doji Star” pattern at resistance, last month. With this being a monthly chart, it could take a while on the calendar to see if this monthly pattern will be an influence on this important index. Should the Russell breakout in the historically strong month of April, the Doji Star would end up being nothing more than noise.

A month from now if the Russell would happen to be a good deal lower in price, this past months pattern, could be an important price point for small caps. We will revisit this chart next month and the month after, to see if this pattern was an influence on small caps.

 

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Monday Humor? Fed “Tired Of Waiting For Inflation” – Plans To Give Every Household $1 Million In Cash

DISCLAIMER: this essay was written in the spirit of April Fool's Day.

Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The basic idea is that giving each household, regardless of wealth or income, $1 million each will spur consumption so mightily that inflation will skyrocket.

The Federal Reserve has been trying to boost the official inflation rate for eight long years, and apparently patience with current policies is finally wearing thin. Rumor has it that the Fed is readying a new "nuclear option": distributing $1 million to each household in the U.S.

The Fed can create any sum of dollars it chooses with a few digital keystrokes. An unidentified source at the Fed reported, "The handheld calculators at the Fed only have 12 digits, so there's a bit of confusion about how much money we'll have to create to give $1 million to all 100 million U.S. households. The consensus answer is $100 trillion, but they're putting the numbers into the current econometric models to verify this."

The basic idea is that giving each household, regardless of wealth or income, $1 million each will spur consumption so mightily that inflation will skyrocket. "What the Fed has wanted for eight long years is to generate an expectation of inflation," our source explained, "so that consumers will spend whatever cash or credit they have now, knowing that it will buy less in the future."

Once people expect substantial inflation, they realize the best course of action is to borrow as much money as possible now before interest rates rise–an inevitable consequence of inflationary expectations.

They also realize it's best to buy whatever you can now before the price rises next month.

"The advocates of this program see asset prices leaping higher," the source said. "Why would a seller of a house asking $500,000 before ther giveaway maintain an asking price of $500,000? of course the price will immediately jump to $999,000."

Debt repayment becomes much easier with $1 million in cash. The source iside the Fed noted, "Imagine how much money the federal government is about to lose in student loan defaults. With $1 million in cash to each household, naturally the government will deduct any student loans, overdue taxes, penalties and so on up front. The banks will love this and so will the federal, state and local governments."

Skeptics are uncertain that households will feel any motivation to pay off private debt such as home mortgages. If interest rates are set to jump higher, it makes sense to hold onto your 4% mortgage rather than pay it off.

The Fed insider noted that advocates expect a tremendous surge in big-ticket consumer durables such as RVs, muscle cars and vacation getaways. "It will be a bonanza for every company selling whatever the middle class aspires to," the source said.

Skeptics believe the money would be better spent on rebuilding America's crumbling infrastructure, but the Fed source said that's already been factored in. "Every level of government can reap a fortune with consumption taxes, user fees, transfer taxes, sales taxes, you name it. With a million bucks to blow, how many people are going to complain about higher sales taxes, transfer taxes, registration fees, higher property taxes and all the other new revenue streams? Very few."

When asked about the potential of triggering Venezuela-like hyper-inflation that ends up destroying the currency and the economy, the source demurred. "The Fed is very confident it has the tools to manage inflation as well as it managed the 2008 Global Financial Meltdown: whatever the problem may be, the solution is to create more liquidity and credit."

So how are you going to spend/invest your $1 million?

DISCLAIMER: this essay was written in the spirit of April Fool's Day.

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We Can’t Cut the NEH, New York Times Columnist Says, Because Books Are Important

Last week New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof joined Robert Redford, Mike Huckabee, and Norman Ornstein in conflating the humanities with federal subsidies for the humanities. Kristof assumes that those of us who think we could muddle through without the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA), the National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH), and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) must not understand the importance of books. He therefore sets out to educate us.

“The humanities may seem squishy and irrelevant,” Kristof writes. “We have a new president who doesn’t read books and who celebrates raw power. It would be easy to interpret Trump as evidence of the irrelevance of the humanities. Yet the humanities are far more important than most people believe.”

Uncle Tom’s Cabin, for instance, “famously contributed to the abolitionist movement,” while Black Beauty “helped change the way we think about animals.” In fact, “Steven Pinker of Harvard argues that a surge of literacy and an explosion of reading—novels in particular—’contributed to the humanitarian revolution’ by helping people see other viewpoints.” You may be wondering how Uncle Tom’s Cabin, published in 1852, and Black Beauty, published in 1877, could have been supported by grants from the NEH, which was established in 1965, or why such wildly successful bestsellers (or any of the other novels that people willingly bought during the “explosion of reading”) would have needed taxpayer support even if it were available.

If Kristof’s argument is hard to follow when he talks about influential novels, it is downright incomprehensible when he turns to Australian philosopher Peter Singer’s impact on chicken welfare, a subject to which he devotes three paragraphs. His point, Kristof says, is that “the humanities encourage us to reflect on what is important, to set priorities.”

Which brings us to Big Bird. Kristof concedes the giant yellow muppet “will survive” even without the CPB. Still, he worries that “some local public television stations will close without federal support—meaning that children in some parts of the country may not be able to see ‘Sesame Street’ on their local channel.” That does not seem like much of a loss, since about 94 percent of U.S. households have access to such programming through pay TV or streaming video, and children also can watch Sesame Street at the PBS Kids website.

Lest you think that Kristof “sounds elitist” when he talks about the importance of Big Bird, he wants you to know that “I’ve seen people die for ideas,” including the Tiananmen Square protesters who in 1989 “sacrifice[d] their lives for democracy.” What that has to do with the merits of federal funding for the CPB is anyone’s guess. Kristof seems to be invoking dead dissidents in the name of keeping Sesame Street available on all of the local channels where it currently can be seen.

Kristof manages to bring it all together in his conclusion. Well, not really. “In 2017, with the world a mess, I’d say we need not only drones but also Big Bird, and poetry and philosophy,” he says. “The arts humanize us and promote empathy. We need that now more than ever.”

Kristof implies what Ornstein said explicitly: “For millenia, a key measure of a nation’s greatness has been appreciation for culture—music, art, dance, theater. Ax NEA, NEH,we lose that.” In other words, if you’re against the NEA, you’re against the arts, and if you want to eliminate the NEH, you want to eliminate the humanities. Never mind that grants from those agencies represent a drop in the bucket of total funding for the arts and humanities.

By the same logic, you oppose education if you oppose the Department of Education, and you oppose shelter if you oppose the Department of Housing and Urban Development. For Ornstein and Kristof, there is no difference between valuing something and insisting that the federal government force other people to pay for it—an attitude that is far more fiscally consequential than the programs they happen to be defending right now.

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Jared Kushner Flies To Iraq With Joint Chiefs For ISIS Strategy Briefing

President Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner reportedly arrived in Baghdad this morning, in a surprise visit with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Joseph Dunford, to meet U.S. and Iraqi officials and to receive military briefings on the fight against the Islamic State.  Kushner is the first member of Trump’s inner circle to visit the country, currently engaged in a fight to drive the militant group from Mosul and other areas.

The visit comes at a critical time, as the Department of Defense crafts the new administration’s strategy to combat the Islamic State in Iraq, Syria and beyond.

As the Wall Street Journal points out, Kushner is a relative newcomer to foreign policy but has been given broad authority over a number of sensitive issues including the brokering of a peace agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians.  “If you can’t produce peace in the Middle East, nobody can,” Trump told Kushner at a gala a few days before his inauguration.

Mr. Kushner, 36, a newcomer to foreign policy issues, has taken an active role as an adviser to Mr. Trump on national security and foreign policy. Last month, Mr. Kushner made, for a White House official, a rare appearance at the Pentagon, where he met Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman during his meeting with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.

 

He has also been influential with his father-in-law on issues pertaining to Mexico and other countries, and he has been given broad authority by his father-in-law to broker a peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

 

Mr. Kushner, a multimilliionaire businessman and developer interested in how technology can reform organizations, launched an innovation office for the White House last week that intends to help reform government.

Kushner

 

Kushner’s Iraq trip marks an early foray for the Trump administration into the situation in Iraq and comes just two weeks after Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said he was assured by the president the U.S. will accelerate its support for his country’s struggle against the Islamic State group.

Al-Abadi met with Trump and Kushner in Washington last month and said he had the impression that the Trump administration would take a more aggressive approach in combatting ISIS than the Obama administration did.

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis recently presented the president with the outlines of a comprehensive approach to defeating IS and other extremist groups on a global scale, but specifics have yet to be released.  That said, the new strategy, or a refinement of it, may include additional U.S. troops for both Iraq and Syria, possible changes that could put American soldiers closer to the front lines, and an accelerated airstrike campaign.

“I think anyone who’s involved in the discussion on where we go strategically—having good situational awareness about what’s happening tactically and hear it first hand and unfiltered, how our advisers assess the Iraqi security forces, both the opportunities and the challenges—will feed into somebody’s strategic view,” Gen. Dunford told the small group of reporters traveling with him on a military jet.

As we noted last week, Kushner was also the latest Trump associate to be swept up in the ongoing media crusade to link the Trump administration to Russian spies. The White House confirmed last week that he had volunteered to be interviewed by the Senate intelligence committee. North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr, the committee’s chairman, said that Kushner would likely be under oath and would submit to a “private interview” about arranging meetings with the Russian ambassador and other officials.

We expect confirmation from CNN at any moment on whether there are any senior Russian officials currently in Iraq, anywhere in Kushner’s general vicinity. 

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Trump Doubles-Down On Obama ‘Wiretap’ Narrative: “This Is Unprecedented”

As much as we suspect the establishment the establishment would preferthis can of self-incriminating worms was firmly kept shut, President Trump has doubled-down on his accusations of Obama administration surveillance of Trump and his campaign officials in his latest tweet…

Obviously citing ‘sources’ is not the ‘smoking gun’ but given that entire narratives have been proscribed by mainstream media and politicians on the basis of nothing more than ‘anonymouse sources’, why is a Fox ‘source’ any different from a CNN or WaPo ‘source’? Is it any wonder Democrats are so desperate to silence Nunes?

 

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10 Killed in St. Petersburg Metro Explosion, Jared Kushner to Iraq, Baseball Resumes: A.M. Links

  • Donald Trump is still complaining about allegedly being surveilled last year.
  • An explosion on the subway in St. Petersburg, Russia, killed at least 10.
  • Jared Kushner goes to Iraq.
  • Turkey President Recep Erdogan told Turks living in Europe to “resist the grandchildren of Nazism.”
  • Moon Jae-in won the Democratic presidential primary in South Korea, and is expected to win the general election.
  • More than 200 people died, and more are missing, after mudslides in Colombia.
  • Yesterday was Opening Day and today is too.

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Trendline Broken, Momentum Fading, Stocks Are in Serious Trouble

Stocks are in serious trouble.

The market has broken the bull rally trendline that supported it since election night.

 

The bulls now need to ramp the market HARD to reignite the momentum here. If they don’t, we could see the market unwind all of the election night move very quickly.
 

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

We’ve extended our offer to access this report for FREE based on the market’s precarious situation.

However, tonight at midnight the doors close on this offer.

To pick up one of the remaining copies, swing by:

http://ift.tt/1HW1LSz

 

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

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Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Payrolls; FOMC Minutes; Trump Meets Xi

The key economic releases in the US this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week. Consensus expected 175K jobs to be added at Friday’s US Nonfarm payrolls. Additionally, there will be updates on Eurozone industrial production data, a series of ECB speakers and the French election TV debate. In EM, there are monetary policy meetings in India, Israel, Peru, Poland and Romania as well as a series of rating reviews.

Market participants will also be paying attention to the meeting between Trump and Xi set for Thursday and Friday at Mar-A-Lago.

The US non-farm payrolls take center stage

Economists think nonfarm payrolls grew by 175,000 in March, implying another strong month of job gains. Incoming data on the labor market in March have been positive: regional business surveys such as the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys suggest hiring activity picked up. Moreover, the labor market differential index from the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report surged to 12 in March marking the highest reading since August 2001. Overall, while the risks to the forecast are balanced analysts don’t believe an upside surprise has the potential to influence June rate hike pricing given the French elections.

Fed and ECB minutes to also gather attention

Also on this week’s docket will be the March FOMC minutes where the balance of risks is skewed towards a more hawkish interpretation by the market – in potential contrast to the March FOMC dovish reaction to the lower than expected Fed dots path.  The ECB also releases its March meeting minutes where the market will try to get more insight over the precise points of dispute between hawks and doves concerning monetary policy tightening and the sequencing of instruments. Given the re-pricing of forwards following hike expectations pushback over the last week and the permanence of 5y premia pricing, there is limited scope for a drop in front-end rates.

Emerging Markets

There will be monetary policy meetings in India, Israel, Peru, Poland and Romania. Rating reviews in Belarus, Czech Republic, Morocco, Romania, Saudi Arabia and South Africa.

Summary of key weekly data

  • In the US beyond FOMC minutes and NFPs, we get ISM manufacturing, construction spending and trade balance.
  • In the Eurozone, we have German industrial production and Eurozone retail sales & unemployment. We also note ECB’s Draghi, Constancio, Coeure and Praet are to speak. Finally, we also highlight the second French presidential TV debate on Tuesday.
  • In UK, PMIs, industrial production, construction data and trade balance are the focus.
  • In Japan, we mainly await confidence surveys
  • In Canada, main releases include labor data, PMI (manufacturing) and building permits.
  • In China, we only highlight PMI manufacturing.

Visually, courtesy of BofA:

From DB’s Jim Reid, here is a breakdown of key daily events:

This morning we’re kicking off the week in Europe with the final manufacturing PMI’s for March as well as a first look at the data for the UK and periphery. Also due out is PPI and unemployment rate data for the Euro area. This afternoon in the US we’ll get the final manufacturing and composite PMI’s for March along with the ISM manufacturing print and February construction spending data. Later this evening we’ll also get the March vehicle sales data.

During the Asia session tomorrow we’ll have the RBA meeting outcome where no change is expected. In Europe we’ve got retail sales data for the Euro area due while in the US we will get the final durable and capital goods orders data revisions for February, along with February’s trade balance reading and factory orders data.

Wednesday looks set to be a busy data with the final March services and composite PMI’s due in Japan and then in Europe. We’ll also get the final services PMI in the US along with the ADP employment report for March and ISM non-manufacturing print. Also due out will be the March FOMC meeting minutes.

Turning to Thursday, the early data is due out of China with the Caixin PMI’s. In Germany we’ll get factory orders data while the ECB meeting minutes will also be released around lunchtime. In the US on Thursday the calendar is quiet with just initial jobless claims data due.

It looks set to be a busy end to the week on Friday. In Europe we are due to get industrial production reports and trade data for the UK, France and Germany. In the US all eyes will be on the March employment report including the all important payrolls print. Wholesale inventories and consumer credit will also be due out in the US.

Away from the data the Fedspeakers this week include Dudley, Harker and Lacker today followed by Tarullo on Tuesday and Williams on Thursday. The ECB’s Coeure speaks today. Away from that, the second French presidential debate is due tomorrow night. As with the first debate it will be televised live. President Trump is also due to host China President Xi Jinping on Thursday and Friday. An informal EU finance ministers meeting is also due on Friday and Saturday.

* * *

Finally, a summary of all key US events with consensus expectations and highlights from Goldman

Monday, April 3

  • 09:45 AM Markit flash US manufacturing PMI, March final (consensus 53.5, last 53.4)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing, March (GS 57.0, consensus 57.2, last 57.7): Regional manufacturing surveys were mixed in March, and we expect ISM manufacturing to decrease by 0.7pt to 57.0 in the March report. The Philly Fed (-10.5pt to +32.8), Dallas Fed (-7.6pt to +16.9), and Empire State (-2.3pt to +16.4) manufacturing sector surveys declined while the Kansas City (+6pt to +20) and Richmond Fed (+5pt to +22) surveys moved higher. The Chicago PMI also edged up. Our manufacturing survey tracker—which is scaled to the ISM index—remains roughly unchanged at 59.1 in March.
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, February (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.0%, last -1.0%): We expect construction spending to increase 1.1% in February, following a larger than expected 1.0% decline in January that reflected weaker public residential and nonresidential spending. Unseasonably warm weather is likely to contribute to a stronger February number.
  • 10:30 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will host a press briefing on household borrowing, student debt trends, and the impact of student debt and educational attainment on homeownership. Q&A is expected.
  • 03:00 Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will give a speech on financial technology at the University of Pennsylvania School of Engineering and Applied Science’s Technology, Business, and Government Lecture series. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
  • 05:00 PM Total vehicle sales, March (GS 17.3mn, consensus 17.3mn, last 17.5mn): Domestic vehicle sales, March (GS 13.8mn, consensus 13.7mn, last 13.7mn)

Tuesday, April 4

  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$44.2bn, consensus -$44.5bn, last -$48.5bn): We estimate the trade deficit narrowed sharply in February. The Advance Economic Indicators report last week showed a reversal of January’s widening in the goods trade deficit—likely related to the relatively early Chinese New Year—and we forecast similar improvement in the broader trade balance in this week’s report.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, February (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.0, last +1.2%); Durable goods orders, February final (consensus +1.9%, last +1.7%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February final (last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, February final (last -0.1%); Core capital goods shipments, February final (last +1.0%): We expect factory orders to rise 1.0% following a 1.2% increase in January. Last week’s durable goods report showed stronger new durable goods orders and a rebound in core capital goods orders.
  • 04:30 PM Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo will give a speech titled “Departing Thoughts” at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University in New Jersey. Audience Q&A is expected.

Wednesday, April 5

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment report, March (GS +200k, consensus +195k, last +298k): We expect a 200k increase in ADP payroll employment in March, reflecting encouraging hiring trends partially offset by some net softness in the financial and economic indicators also utilized in the ADP model. The ADP report introduced methodological changes with the October release and now offers more details by sector. While we believe the ADP employment report holds limited value for forecasting the BLS’s nonfarm payrolls report, we find that large ADP surprises vs. consensus forecasts are directionally correlated with nonfarm payroll surprises.
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, March final (last 52.9): 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, March (GS 56.5, consensus 57.0, last 57.6): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing survey to decrease to 56.5 from 57.6 in the March report. Regional non-manufacturing surveys were on net softer in March, though they continue to signal moderate expansion in service-sector business activity. The Richmond Fed (-6pt to +9), New York Fed (-3.7pt to +11.5, SA by GS), and Dallas Fed (+2.4pt to +13.2) surveys all pulled back, while the Philly Fed non-manufacturing index strengthened (+6.1pt to +35.4). Overall, our non-manufacturing survey tracker ticked down to 56.7 in March (vs. 56.8 in February).
  • 02:00 PM FOMC Minutes from the March 14-15 meeting: The FOMC raised the funds rate target range by 25bp at its March meeting and made minor revisions to its statement. The median dot in the Summary of Economic Projections continued to show three hikes in both 2017 and 2018. In the minutes, we will look for any hints about the plans for balance sheet normalization, timing of the next hike as well, as well as any comments about the FOMC’s evolving expectations for fiscal policy under the new administration.

Thursday, April 6

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 1 (GS 245k, consensus 250k, last 258k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 25 (consensus 2,040k, last 2,052k): We estimate initial jobless claims declined 13k to 245k, reversing the elevated readings of the past two weeks that we believe reflected the impact of Winter Storm Stella, which hit the US during the week of March 18th. State-level details suggest that the storm raised jobless claims by about 15k in each week. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend down in recent months, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue.
  • 09:30 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve President John Williams will participate in a moderated panel discussion at the annual ECB and its Watchers conference in Frankfurt. The topic of the panel is focused on the questions: “Do monetary policy frameworks need to be adjusted in a world of (potentially) low natural real interest rates? If so, how?”.

Friday, April 7

  • 8:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, March (GS +170k, consensus +175k, last +235k); Private payroll employment, March (GS +170k, consensus +180k, last +227k); Average hourly earnings (mom), March (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), March (GS +2.7%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.8%); Unemployment rate, March (GS 4.7%, consensus 4.7%, last 4.7%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 170k in March following a 235k increase in February and compared to a three-month moving average of +209k. While we expect underlying job growth to be supported by encouraging employment surveys, we believe a sharp drop in temperatures and the early-month winter storms will depress payroll growth in weather-sensitive categories. Winter Storm Stella impacted the Midwest and East Coast early in the payroll survey week, and we believe the weather impact could be particularly large in comparison to February, which exhibited unseasonably warm weather and limited snowfall. A second potential headwind this month is the federal hiring freeze announced in late January (excluding defense and public safety), which could weigh on government payrolls. The extent of the headwind on overall payroll growth may be mitigated by the ability of government departments to circumvent the hiring freeze, for example through reduced attrition or increased contracted hiring, and these employer strategies may help explain the minimal impact of the hiring freeze in last month’s report. We expect the unemployment rate to remain stable to 4.7%, as the pace of household employment growth has picked up sharply over the last few months and may be due a pause. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting the interaction of firming wage growth with slightly negative calendar effects.
  • 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, January final (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%)
  • 12:15 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give a speech titled “Remarks on the State of Financial Regulation and the Potential for Reform” at the Princeton Club of New York. Moderated Q&A is expected.
  • 03:00 PM Consumer credit, February (consensus +$13.8bn, last +$8.8bn)

Source: BofA, DB, GS

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Dubai Police Arrest Hackers Who Broke Into “Highly Confidential” White House Emails

In a development that could have substantial implications to the ongoing “Russia hacked the US elections” narrative, United Arab Emirates media reports that Dubai police have arrested a group of foreign hackers that targeted five White House officials in an email blackmail scheme.

The Arabic-language Al Bayan newspaper and the television channel Dubai One reported the arrests on Monday according to AP. Dubai police did not answer repeated calls for comment.

The Al Bayan quoted Maj. Saud al-Khalidi of Dubai police as saying an “African gang”, broke into the emails of the five senior officials and “got highly confidential information.” He said the U.S. asked Dubai police for assistance. Al-Khalidi said that investigators tracked down the gang to an apartment in the emirate of Ajman and arrested three suspects. Those arrested are between 24 and 26 years of age and had a list of “5 million bank accounts,” as well as hacking software and millions of dollars in assets, he said.

The major said the three people had entered the UAE on visitor visas a few years ago. The reports did not identify the White House officials targeted. Al-Khalidi reportedly said those suspects would be handed over to the United States for possible criminal trials.

The U.S. Embassy in Abu Dhabi did not respond to requests for comment.

As we await more official details, the google translated report from Al Bayan report is below:

Dubai Police have arrested an organized African gang that broke the e-mail of senior White House officials in the United States of America, Dr. Saud al-Khalidi, head of information and development at the Dubai Police Department of Investigation and Criminal Investigation, revealed. The intention to sell and exploit the information is the purpose of confidentiality obtained by them.

 

 Details

 

Maj. Khalid al-Khalidi told Al-Bayan that the details of the incident were due to the receipt of official mail from the competent authorities in the United States stating that the e-mail of 5 senior White House officials had been hacked and that the infiltrators sent blackmail messages to the US presidency. Information was highly confidential and it was noted that hackers were suspected within the UAE. All available information was immediately received and a team of experts and cybercriminals was established. Within two hours, the penetration site was identified in one of the emirates.

 

Majid Khalidi said that the location of the penetration was determined accurately and in coordination with the competent authorities in the Emirate of Ajman was raided the site was an apartment run by an African gang organized by 3 people and resisted the authorities and try to escape, but they were controlled, and found on the site on computers and devices The hackers are also known to have specialized in hacking operations and sell the information they receive in large amounts, and it is not the first process they do, but the first from within the state, where the perpetrators used to change the countries in which they manage their operations.

 

Precedents

 

Khalidi pointed out that the gang members were between the ages of 24 and 26 years old and found a list of bank account numbers of about 5 million bank accounts, estimated at billions of dollars and programs of piracy, and check them showed that they entered the state on a visit visa to carry out the operations they had undertaken for years and actually managed From transferring millions of dollars into their assets, and that no one doubted or recognized the nature of their work or arrested them throughout those years.

Al Khalidi pointed out that the defendants were brought to the competent authorities and that after the end of their sentence within the UAE they will be handed over to the US authorities. This case has established the great expertise of the Dubai Police, especially in electronic crimes, which are considered complex crimes.

 

Honored

 

Maj. Gen. Saud al-Khalidi said that after the American authorities handed over a complete file of the investigation, which included all the hard evidence and documents that proved that the gang had penetrated hundreds of accounts of officials worldwide, the US authorities honored the UAE for fruitful cooperation, prompt response, A record time although no accurate information is available to locate the gang.

via http://ift.tt/2osZcIq Tyler Durden