The unanimous very smart person take on Trump’s firing of James Comey is that it’s a political disaster which will lead to total ruin, and possibly his impeachment. I disagree.
The key factor that will determine how this ultimately turns out hinges largely on whether or not there was actual coordination between the Trump campaign and the Russian government to sway the election through hacking or other nefarious means. Personally, I don’t think there was, which is why I don’t expect Donald Trump to be removed from office. The consensus view right now is that Trump’s firing of Comey offers further circumstantial evidence that he’s trying to cover up coordination with Russia in order to end the ongoing investigation. This is certainly a possibility to be considered, but it’s certainly not the only possibility, nor is it necessarily the most likely explanation.
First, the optics. The timing of this move looks unquestionably bad, particularly if a story published in today’s New York Times is correct. It reports:
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