Month: May 2017

Authored by Soren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

• Although non-Germans make up approximately 10% of the overall German population, they accounted for 30.5% of all crime suspects in the country in 2016.
• Nearly 250,000 migrants entered the country illegally in 2016, up 61.4% from 154,188 in 2015. More than 225,000 migrants were found living in the country illegally (Unerlaubter Aufenthalt) in 2016.
• The Berlin Senate launched an inquiry into why migrants disproportionally appear as criminals in the city-state compared to Germans.

An official annual report about crime in Germany has revealed a rapidly deteriorating security situation in the country marked by a dramatic increase in violent crime, including murder, rape and sexual assault.

The report also shows a direct link between the growing lawlessness in Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to allow in more than one million mostly male migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

The report — Police Crime Statistics 2016 (Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik, PKS) — was compiled by the Federal Criminal Police Office (Bundeskriminalamt, BKA) and presented by Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière in Berlin on April 24.

The number of non-German crime suspects (nichtdeutsche Tatverdächtige) legally residing in Germany jumped to 616,230 in 2016, up from 555,820 in 2015 — an increase of 11% — according to the report. Although non-Germans make up approximately 10% of the overall German population, they accounted for 30.5% of all crime suspects in the country in 2016, up from 27.6% in 2015.

In this year's report, the BKA created a separate subcategory called "migrants" (Zuwanderer) which encompasses a combination of refugees, pending asylum seekers, failed asylum seekers and illegal immigrants.

According to the BKA, the number of migrant crime suspects (tatverdächtiger Zuwanderer) in Germany in 2016 jumped to 174,438 from 114,238 in 2015 — up 52.7%. Although "migrants" made up less than 2% of the German population in 2016, they accounted for 8.6% of all crime suspects in the country — up from 5.7% in 2015.

In terms of non-German crime suspects residing legally in Germany, Turks were the primary offenders in 2016, with 69,918 suspects, followed by Romanians, Poles, Syrians, Serbs, Italians, Afghans, Bulgarians, Iraqis, Albanians, Kosovars, Moroccans, Iranians and Algerians.

In terms of migrant crime suspects, Syrians were the primary offenders, followed by Afghans, Iraqis, Albanians, Algerians, Moroccans, Serbs, Iranians, Kosovars and Somalis.

Police in Bremen, Germany frisk a North African youth who is suspected of theft. (Image source: ZDF video screenshot)

The report's other findings include:

• Violent crime surged in Germany in 2016. These include a 14.3% increase in murder and manslaughter, a 12.7% increase in rape and sexual assault and a 9.9% increase in aggravated assault. The BKA also recorded a 14.8% increase in weapons offenses and a 7.1% increase in drug offenses.

• Non-German crime suspects committed 2,512 rapes and sexual assaults in Germany in 2016 — an average of seven a day. Syrians were the primary offenders, followed by Afghans, Iraqis, Pakistanis, Iranians, Algerians, Moroccans, Eritreans, Nigerians and Albanians. German authorities have repeatedly been accused of underreporting the true scale of the migrant rape problem for political reasons. For example, up to 90% of the sex crimes committed in Germany in 2014 do not appear in the official statistics, according to André Schulz, the head of the Association of Criminal Police (Bund Deutscher Kriminalbeamter, BDK).

• Non-German crime suspects committed 11,525 robberies in Germany in 2016 — an average of 32 a day. Moroccans were the primary offenders, followed by Algerians, Syrians, Georgians, Tunisians, Albanians, Afghans, Serbs, Iraqis and Iranians.

• Non-German crime suspects committed 56,252 aggravated assaults in 2016 — an average of 154 a day. Syrians were the primary offenders, followed by Afghans, Iraqis, Iranians, Moroccans, Algerians, Somalis, Albanians, Eritreans and Pakistanis.

• Bavaria was the German state most affected by non-German criminality, followed by North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg, Hesse, Berlin, Lower Saxony, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony, Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein, Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saarland, Bremen and Thüringen.

• Berlin was the German city most affected by non-German criminality, followed by Munich, Hamburg, Frankfurt, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Hanover, Stuttgart, Dortmund, Bremen, Leipzig, Nürnberg, Essen, Duisburg, Mannheim, Karlsruhe, Dresden, Freiburg im Breisgau, Chemnitz, Aachen, Bielefeld, Wuppertal, Augsburg, Bonn, Bochum, Gelsenkirchen, Wiesbaden, Münster, Kiel, Halle, Krefeld, Braunschweig, Mainz, Lübeck, Mönchengladbach, Erfurt, Oberhausen, Magdeburg and Rostock.

• The BKA also recorded 487,711 violations of German immigration laws (ausländerrechtliche Verstöße), up 21.1% from 402,741 violations in 2015. Nearly 250,000 migrants entered the country illegally in 2016, up 61.4% from 154,188 in 2015. More than 225,000 migrants were found living in the country illegally (Unerlaubter Aufenthalt) in 2016.

The new data contradicts claims made by the BKA in December 2016 — just four months before the current report — that migrant criminality was actually decreasing.

During a press conference in Berlin on April 24, Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière admitted:

"The proportion of foreign suspects, and migrants in particular, is higher than the average for the general population. This cannot be sugarcoated. There is an overall rise in disrespect, violence and hate. Those who commit serious offenses here forfeit their right to stay here."

Separately, officials in Bavaria revealed that the number of crimes committed by asylum seekers and refugees there increased by 58% in 2016. They accounted for 9.6% of all crimes committed in the state, up from 3.2% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2012. Syrians were the primary offenders, followed by Afghans, Iraqis and Nigerians.

"The increase in crime in Bavaria in 2016 is mainly due to foreign suspects, especially immigrants," said Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann.

At the same time, officials in Baden-Württemberg noted a 95.5% increase in the number of physical assaults involving at least one migrant in 2016.

Meanwhile, the Berlin Senate launched an inquiry into why migrants disproportionally appear as criminals in the city-state compared to Germans. In 2016, 40% of all crime suspects in the German capital were non-Germans.

None of this seems to be having an impact on the German elections set for September 24, 2017. Polls show that if the election for German chancellor were held today, Angela Merkel, who is largely responsible for the migration crisis, would be re-elected with 37% of the vote. Martin Schulz, the Social Democrat candidate who has pledged to increase migration to Germany even further, would win 29% of the vote and the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany would win 8%. For now, German voters appear to believe that the alternatives to Merkel are all worse.

Finally, we note Vijeta Uniyal's comments that illustrate perfectly the level of cognitive dissonance among European officials at this crisis…

At the height of the European migrant crisis in early 2016, when masses of migrants were pouring into Europe, the German Green Party Chairwoman Katrin Göring-Eckardt could not control her joy.

 

"We have just received an unexpected gift in the form of people," she told her fellow Germans, reminding them to be grateful.

 

This gift, she said, was going to make the country "more religious, more colourful, more diverse and younger."

 

It was agift, it turns out, that keeps on giving.

via http://ift.tt/2pTMZh2 Tyler Durden

As we pointed out earlier today, Reuters cited US military officials who said that the U.S. military’s THAAD anti-missile defense system has “reached initial intercept capability” in South Korea, although they added that it would not be fully operational for some months. Just hours after the announcement, Beijing lashed out at DC and demanded an “immediate halt” to the controversial US missile shield. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang voiced the government’s position against the move during a briefing on Tuesday.

“We oppose the deployment of the US missile system to South Korea and call on all parties to immediately stop this process. We are ready to take necessary measures to protect our interests,” he said according to AFP, adding that “China’s position on the THAAD issue has not changed.”

THAAD missile captured during launch

As Reuters noted earlier, the spokesperson didn’t specify what “necessary measures” China had in mind. However, responding to the THAAD installation, last week China announced on Thursday that it will stage live-fire exercises and test new weapons to protect its security.

Curiously, while on one hand Beijing lashed out at the shield’s deployment, on the other, the foreign ministry expressed support for US President Donald Trump’s surprise comments that he would be “honored” to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un under the right conditions.

Asked about Trump’s remarks, Geng said that China “has always believed that dialogue and consultation… is the only realistic and viable way to achieve denuclearisation.”

“We also said many times that the US and DPRK… should make political decisions at an early date, take action and show good faith so that we can create a better atmosphere for resuming the peace talks and settling the issue,” he added.

Beijing has previously expressed loud concerns over the THAAD system and joint US-South Korean drills near the Korean Peninsula, consistently urging all the parties involved to find a peaceful solution to the volatile situation in the region. Backed by Russia, it also proposed a halt to military drills in exchange for an end to Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear tests during a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) session held in New York on Friday.

Moscow likewise considers the stationing of the THAAD system to be an “additional destabilizing factor for the region” amid alarmingly increasing tensions. It has called on Washington and Seoul to reconsider the decision.

Beijing has imposed a host of measures seen as economic retaliation against the South for the THAAD deployment, including a ban on tour groups. Retail conglomerate Lotte, which previously owned the golf course, has also been targeted, with 85 of its 99 stores in China shut down, while South Korea’s biggest automaker Hyundai Motor has said its Chinese sales have fallen sharply. The THAAD deployment comes as tension soars on the Korean peninsula following a series of missile launches by the North and warnings from the administration of US President Donald Trump that military action is an “option on the table.”

Further complicating matters, Trump stunned Seoul last week when he suggested South Korea should pay for the $1 billion THAAD system. “I informed South Korea it would be appropriate if they paid. It’s a billion-dollar system,” Trump was quoted as saying in a published report. “It’s phenomenal, shoots missiles right out of the sky.”

Seoul retorted that under the Status of Forces Agreement that governs the US military presence in the country, the South would provide the THAAD site and infrastructure while the US would pay to deploy and operate it.

Meanwhile, Thomas Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that South Korea’s sole THAAD battery does not quite have the range to cover the entire country. But he called it an important first step. “This is not about a having a perfect shield, this is about buying time and thereby contributing to the overall credibility of deterrence,” Karako told AFP.

“South Korea with THAAD helps communicate to the North that today is not a good day to attack. It doesn’t mean that they could not do a lot of damage — they would — but it strengthens the overall posture.”

That, however, is irrelevant to China which sees the THAAD deployment as drastically shifting the regional balance of power; as such look forward to aggressive moves by Beijing which will now seek to enforce its own national interest, even if it means dstabilizing South Korea, while boosting Kim’s regime.

via http://ift.tt/2oTPT5h Tyler Durden

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

The proportions that make up America's Service, Goods Producing, and Governmental employment have fundamentally changed since WWII.  The chart below outlines that nearly all US job growth since 1939 has come from the service sector, with an assist from government jobs.  And as for the Goods producing sector, it currently employs the same number as it did in March of 1953 and nearly five million fewer than at it's peak in 1979.  The goods producing sector has been outnumbered by the government sector since 2009, another inglorious milestone for America.

Apparently, the future of US employment is a narrative about service providers serving service providers with ever more governance (chart below)?!?

So, what are these classifications?  Employment is split up among these groups as follows:

• Service (Wholesale/Retail Trade, Transport & Warehousing, Utilities, Information, Finance, Real Estate, Professional & Business Services, Education & Healthcare, Leisure & Hospitality, Accommodation & Food Services)
• Government (Federal, State, Local)
• Goods Producing (Construction, Manufacturing, Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Oil / Gas extraction, Mining…plus support services for these activities)

Below, US employment is broken down by sector, as a percentage of the total US population since 1939 (as far as the data set goes).  The service industry is now (as a %) employing nearly 40% of the total US population…up from just 15% prior to WWII.  Government employment has more than doubled from 3% to 7%.  However, goods producing employment has fallen from it's 1943 peak of 14% to just 6% of the population presently making anything.

If we combine those working in the Service industry, Goods Producing Industry, as well as Government and divides them by the total US population…a funny thing is visible (chart below).  The combined percentage employed rose from 1939 until '00, but since then, the percentage of the population employed has continued to decline.

Focusing solely on US goods producing jobs from 1939 to present, the pattern isn't pretty (chart below).  Lower left to upper right from WWII to '79, generally unchanged from '79 through '00, and a couple of waterfalls with inadequate recoveries since.  All this against the US population which nearly tripled over the same time (122 to 325 million).

Importantly, since WWII, the goods producing industry has only created managerial / supervisory positions while not creating a single (net) non-supervisory job (chart below).  Hard to say if it is technology, innovation, outsourcing, etc…but rank and file goods producing employees have been declining for 60yrs plus.  The ratio of supervisors to hands on employees has declined from 1 supervisor per 7 employees to 1 supervisor per 2.5 employees.

Some factors impacting these trends:

First, a peek at government vs. goods producing jobs with federal debt as the kicker.  The '00 and '06 goods producing job waterfalls were offset by huge increases in federal debt.  But interestingly, even government jobs have been decelerating over these same recent periods.

Next, the linkage of US goods producing jobs and the Federal Funds rate (chart below) is no accident.  Each period of hiking culminated in a goods producing jobs down turn (and general economic recession).  Presently, the US is still millions of goods producing jobs short of the '06 peak and nearly 5 million below the '00 peak…but the Fed rate hikes portend that another downturn is likely coming sooner than later.

Perhaps some of the explanation for the end of the US goods producing job growth, the decades of stall, and decline since '00 can all be tracked to oil (chart below).  Nixon's abandonment of the Bretton Woods agreement and the creation of the Petro dollar with OPEC members spelled the end of stable energy prices and the end of job growth and opportunity for those looking for employment among the US goods producing industries.  Each spike in oil prices was meet with a steep downturn in US goods producing jobs.

And for comparison, the chart below shows the non-cyclical service sector…growing ever larger and entirely dependent on ever more cheap credit and debt to continue growing.

Given the apparent linkage of oil price to US goods producing employment, the period of the Fed's QE is relevant.  QE pushed oil prices to the longest sustained period of $80+ oil in history (chart below).  And it was only the end of QE which immediately brought on the collapse in oil prices.

…but the ZIRP policy created the environment for massive misallocation of capital into US tight oil…creating the oversupply which upon the QE completion collapsed the price of oil (chart below).

So what now?  Honestly, we are off the map and the only thing you can count on is less "free markets" and more central bank and federal government "direction".  So, hard to say but with the Fed raising rates (why, I don't know), the spread for lenders collapsing, and combined with the present $50'ish oil price, I'd forecast US tight oil to begin it's tailspin (and maintain the production declines regardless price so long as rates are rising…all bets off if the Fed turns tail and heads to NIRP).  Even absent interest rate sensitive US addled tight oil, global oil demand looks set to continue grinding lower DETAILED HERE and the only hope for oil producers to see higher prices is another round of QE DETAILED HERE.  So, unfortunately for those looking for a resurgence of US goods producing jobs, I have little reason to offer that employment will do anything but continue it's long decline in America…but low oil prices (absent further QE) are likely the only good news that will slow the decline.

via http://ift.tt/2qtMKWP Tyler Durden

By now, anyone with a working brain knows that stocks are in a massive bubble. For most valuation metrics stocks have NEVER been more overvalued than they are today.

However, up until now the question has remained, “what will be the needle that bursts this bubble?”

We now know… once again, it’s in subprime lending, not in housing, but in auto-loans.

Auto-loan generation has gone absolutely vertical since 2009, rising an incredible 56% in seven years. Even more incredibly roughly 1/3 of these loans are subprime AKA garbage.

In the simplest of terms, this is Subprime 2.0… is the literally the fuse for a $1.2 trillion debt bomb.

I’ve been watching this industry for months now, waiting for the signal that it’s ready to explode.

That signal just hit.

Auto-sales have peaked and are now rolling over. Indeed, looking at the chart this is a virtual repeat of what happened in late 2007 right before the economy fell off a cliff and the stock market crashed

This is the signal I’ve been looking for. When auto-sales roll over, it shows the consumer is tapped out.

The fact that this is happening at a time when auto lenders are making subprime loans (meaning people aren’t buying even when the offer is ridiculous) means this industry has turned.

It’s now just a matter of months before the defaults start hitting. And given that we’re talking about well over $120 billion in garbage loans here, this could very well be the needle that bursts  the Fed-fueled $60+ trillion debt bubble.

Fortunately there are ways to profit from this.

To pick up a FREE investment report outlining three investments that you could make you a ton of money when the markets collapse… 

CLICK HERE!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

via http://ift.tt/2pTvzkB Phoenix Capital Research

Below looks at the FTSE 100 index from London, over the past 30-years. The long-term trend in this important index from Europe remains up, as it has created a series of highs lower and higher highs, since the 2009 lows. The FTSE has spent the majority of the past 25-years, inside of rising channel (1).

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Line (2) is a parallel line of (1). This line was placed on the 2008 counter trend highs, creating another lower parallel rising channel. Line (2) was hit as resistance on the first week of spring (3/17/17) at the apex of a bearish rising wedge at (3). Since then, the index has created a series of lower highs over the past 6-weeks and has broke below support of the rising wedge pattern at (4). The index is down around 3% since hitting dual resistance at (3), nothing big at this time.

Bulls in the states want to see this important index from Europe, heading higher, not reflecting weakness. With the trend in the index still being up, bulls should’t be too alarmed at this time.

What level should the bulls be concerned?  If the FTSE would happen to break below 2000 highs at the 6,950 zone, then this index would send a concerning message to the states.

Send me an email to review a complimentary copy of my  Weekly Global Dashboard Research that provides weekly pattern analysis on major global markets and leading indicators

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM

Blog:  http://ift.tt/2nMNRyT

Questions: Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com or call us toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381

via http://ift.tt/2qoxBZR kimblecharting

In his latest review of monthly asset performance, DB’s Jim Reid writes that the month of April was for the most part a positive one for the bank’s sample of assets. For riskier assets in particular, April was however a bit of a tale of two halves. Escalating geopolitical concerns around Syria and North Korea combined with some unwinding of Trump reflation trades and the prospect of the French presidential elections towards the end of the month kept risk assets in check for much of April while measures of volatility (namely the VIX and VSTOXX) hit year to date highs.

However a market friendly French election result coupled with a strong start to earnings season on both sides of the pond helped risk assets stage a decent rally in the last week to finish with solid returns. Indeed overall, excluding currencies markets saw 29 of the 39 assets in the sample finish the month with a positive return in USD terms. A decent rally for both the Euro (+2%) and Sterling (+3%) meant that returns were generally more subdued for assets denominated outside of the US, however a similar amount of assets still ended the month with a positive total return.

In terms of the movers and shakers, at the top of the leaderboard the top 4 positions are dominated by equity markets in USD terms. Leading the way was Greece’s Athex (+9%) helped by progress of the country’s preliminary agreement with creditors on fiscal reforms, followed then by European Banks (+6%), IBEX (+5%) and Stoxx 600 (+4%). The DAX (+3%) and FTSE MIB (+3%) were not too far behind while the FTSE 100 (+2%) also gained although was down -1% in local currency terms reflecting the bounce for Sterling following the announcement of a call for a general election in June. In the US the S&P 500 returned +1% for the month. EM equities were also +2%.

Not to be outdone, April was also a fairly decent month for bonds. At a sovereign level, in USD terms Gilts (+4%), BTPs (+3%), Spanish Bonds (+2%), Bunds (+2%), Treasuries (+1%) and EM bonds (+1%) all finished the month with solid single digit returns. That fed through into a decent month for credit also. European credit outperformed its US counterparts with EU Fin Sub (+4%), HY (+3%), IG Non-Fin (+3%) and Fin Sen (+3%) all performing well, while US credit eked out a smaller +1% gain generally. Given the results from the 1st round of the French Election and perhaps the fact that so far we haven’t seen any firm evidence of the ECB tapering corporate bond purchases, this might also help to explain some of the outperformance of Europe versus US.

The one asset class which did retreat last month was commodities. The Bloomberg commodity index fell -2% and for the fourth consecutive month. Leading the way was Silver (-6%) which is interesting in the context of a +2% gain for Gold. Energy prices suffered also with Brent and WTI both down -3% while Copper (-2%), Wheat (-2%) and Corn (-2%) also retreated.

Finally, quickly summing up where things stand YTD, at the top of the leader board it is equity markets which continue to dominate. The IBEX (+20%), Athex (+15%), EM Equities (+14%), European Banks (+14%) and Stoxx 600 (+12%) headline the top five, although it’s worth noting that equity markets occupy the whole of the top 10. Gold (+10%) and Silver (+8%) follow closely while credit markets are up anywhere from +2% to +7% with Europe outperforming the US. Treasuries (+2%) and Bunds (+3%) are also up for the year. In fact in USD terms only four assets in the sample have delivered a negative return so far this year. That includes Brent (-11%), WTI (-8%), Bloomberg commodity index (-6%) and Russia’s Micex (2%).

Source: Deutsche Bank

via http://ift.tt/2pBCb3Z Tyler Durden

By now pretty much everyone has seen the shocking video of the 69-year-old Vietnamese-American doctor, David Dao, who was infamously hospitalized after Chicago aviation police dragged him from a United Airlines flight to make space for four crew members flying from O’Hare International Airport to Louisville, Kentucky, sparking international outrage (if not, you can take a look here).  But Dao got the last laugh after he reached a settlement with United on April 27th which undoubtedly left him several million dollars richer.

Now, Oscar Munoz, CEO of United, and several other airline executives, are set to get their stern rebuke from our elected officials as they all go before the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure for a day of political theater.  For Munoz, who was heavily criticized for his initial handling of the Dao incident, this will be his first public appearance since police police dragged the bloodied doctor off one of his flights.

As the Wall Street Journal notes today, blowback over the Dao incident has led lawmakers in Washington D.C. to call for a revamped passenger bill of rights which, among other things, would bar airlines from removing passengers from a plane once they’ve been seated.

But lawmakers have lined up with calls for a revamped passenger bill of rights or proposed legislation to tackle issues raised by the United incident and wider consumer concerns about crowded planes and mounting fees for checked luggage and ticket changes. For example, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D, Md.) introduced the proposed Customers Not Cargo Act, designed to bar passengers from being removed after boarding to free up seats for others, policies already addressed by United and American Airlines Group Inc. in the past month.

 

President Donald Trump has called the incident “horrible” and called for airlines to offer more money to get passengers to voluntarily accept alternative flights. The U.S. Department of Transportation launched a review of United’s booking policies in the wake of the incident.

The witness list for the day will include the following airline executives and will be open to the public, which should make for some good outbursts from the audience.

• Mr. Oscar Munoz, Chief Executive Officer, United Airlines; accompanied by Mr. Scott Kirby, President, United Airlines
• Mr. Joseph Sprague, Senior Vice President of External Relations, Alaska Airlines
• Mr. Bob Jordan, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Southwest Airlines
• Ms. Kerry Philipovitch, Senior Vice President of Customer Experience, American Airlines
• Mr. William J. McGee, Aviation Consultant, Consumers Union

With that intro, here is a live feed of the circus:

via http://ift.tt/2qA3c71 Tyler Durden