Futures Rise On Government Funding Deal; Most Global Markets Closed For Holiday

With much of Europe and Asia, including the U.K., France, Germany and China markets closed for Labor Day, Asian stocks and the dollar rose buoyed by news that Congress had reached a deal to keep the US government funded through the end of September. S&P futures are up 4 points or 0.2%. Oil declined as rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose for a fifteenth week and output from Libya rebounded.

What’s happening this morning? Not a whole lot. The two big incremental headlines concerned China (the Apr PMIs were underwhelming) and US gov’t spending (as was widely expected a deal was reached to fund the gov’t until Sept 30 although a shutdown this fall, along w/a debt ceiling battle, remain distinct possibilities). Otherwise it was a relatively quiet weekend/morning. Note that a lot of the world (other than the US) is closed Mon 5/1 for Labor Day/May Day holidays (including HK/mainland China and Europe/London).

The Yen declined for a fifth day in six, while Treasuries retreated with gold.

The MSCI All Country World Index edged higher, after capping a sixth straight month of gains on Friday. Japan’s Topix rose to the highest level since March after its best week of the year. Trading volumes were lower than average due to holidays in most of Europe, China, India and Mexico, and a forthcoming three-day break in Japan.

MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.1%. Japan outperforming on upbeat earnings, with Japan’s Nikkei climbing 0.4%, with high-tech blue chips gaining on strong earnings. 

Asian shares initially took their cue from Wall Street, which dipped on Friday after data showed the U.S. economy grew at its weakest pace in three years in the first quarter. The mood brightened however, on news that U.S. congressional negotiators hammered out a bipartisan agreement on a spending package to keep the federal government funded through Sept. 30, thus averting a government shutdown. Asian markets were little fazed by China’s official manufacturing survey on Sunday which showed growth in the country’s factories slowed more than expected in April to a six-month low.

Pointing to a higher open for the main market later in the day, E-minis gained about 0.2% while 10-year Treasury yields rose after three successive days of declines.

“It is hard for markets to make big moves with holidays in so many places today, and people are just waiting for more information to come out,” said Harumi Taguchi, principal economist at IHS Markit in Tokyo.

“The main focus of the broader markets this week will be on the United States, with the Fed’s May 2-3 policy meeting and the jobs report on Friday,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management in Tokyo. “While many of the indicators in the first quarter were weak, the jobs data could confirm that labor market conditions continue to improve and lift the dollar and U.S. yields.”

In currencies, the greenback was up 0.2 percent at 111.750 yen edging back towards a four-week peak of 111.780 reached last week. The euro handed back earlier modest gains and was flat at $1.0891. The common currency had been lifted on Friday after euro zone inflation data rose more than expected and returned to the European Central Bank’s target. The euro was still in range of the 5-1/2-month high of $1.0951 struck early last week on relief over the first round of the French presidential elections. The pound was 0.3 percent lower at $1.2907 after climbing to a seven-month high of $1.2957 on Friday, when traders were seen to have closed off bets against the pound ahead of Britain’s long bank holiday weekend.  The Australian and New Zealand dollars were slightly lower at $0.7483 and $0.6856, respectively.

In commodities, crude oil prices slipped amid lingering concerns that an OPEC-led production cut has failed to significantly tighten an oversupplied market.U.S. crude shed 11 cents to $49.22 a barrel, heading back towards a one-month low of $48.20 plumbed late last week and Brent LCOc1 was down 16 cents at $51.89 per barrel. Oil was weighed by news that US rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose for 15th week while output from Libya rebounded. The number of oil rigs operating in U.S. fields advanced to most since April 2015, according to Baker Hughes. Libya’s crude production rebounded to more than 700k b/d as the OPEC member’s biggest oil field and another deposit in its western region resumed pumping after halt. “Higher prices will attract American producers to ramp up production, especially in profitable areas like the Permian basin, and the conflict in Libya was already winding down last week,” says Sheldon Laliberte, a Rotterdam-based crude oil analyst at commodities trader Cofco International Ltd. “I’m structurally bearish oil right now.”

DISH Network, Advanced Micro Devices, Cardinal Health among companies scheduled to publish results. It is another busy week for earnings with 131 S&P 500 companies reporting and 85 Stoxx 600 companies reporting. Amongst those reporting are Apple, BP, BNP Paribas, Facebook, Merck, Tesla, Time Warner, Pfizer, HSBC, BMW, Shell and VW.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,385.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.04% to 386.92
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 149.12
  • MXAPJ up 0.1% to 487.23
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 19,310.52
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,539.77
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 24,615.13
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.08% to 3,154.66
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 29,918.40
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 5,956.52
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,205.44
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.1 bps to 0.317%
  • Euro down 0.01% to 1.0894 per US$
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $51.72/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.7 bps to 1.987%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 1.648%
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $51.72/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,262.81
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.08% to 99.13

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.S. House and Senate negotiators reached a bipartisan deal on a $1.1t spending bill that largely tracks with Democratic priorities and rejects most of President Donald Trump’s wish list, including money to begin building a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border
  • The U.S. is considering a range of options, from expanded economic sanctions to military operations, as it reaches out to allies in confronting North Korea’s latest provocations, according to a senior Trump administration official
  • Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron kick off the final week of the French presidential campaign with major rallies in Paris after weekend sparring on subjects ranging from the euro to the environment
  • The pound fell as Prime Minister Theresa May stuck to her guns in arguing that Britain should be allowed to line up a “comprehensive” free-trade deal with the EU at the same time as it negotiates its departure from the bloc
  • China’s official factory gauge declined on lower commodity prices, clouding the outlook for sustaining the past two quarters’ acceleration in economic growth
  • U.S. Looks at Sanctions, Military Action Against North Korea; N. Korea Says Will Speed Up Steps to Bolster Nuclear Deterrence
  • Fox, Blackstone Said Teaming to Make Competing Tribune Bid
  • China Manufacturing Gauge Declines From Almost Five-Year High
  • HSBC, RBS Saudi Arabian Ventures in Talks to Merge
  • Macquarie, Hastings-Led Groups Said to Bid for Endeavour Energy
  • First NBC Bank Fails; Deposits Assumed by Hancock’s Whitney Bank
  • U.S. Oil Output to Expand 400k B/D This Year: Continental’s Hamm
  • BNSF Says Track Outages in U.S. Midwest Impacting Operations
  • Coach Said Considering Takeover of Jimmy Choo: Telegraph
  • GSO Capital Partners Said to Buy More J. Crew Debt: Reuters
  • Elliott Said to Meet BHP’s Australian Holders This Week: Reuters

Most of Asia was closed Monday for holidays (HK, mainland China, Taiwan, Korea, India, and others, were closed). Japan was open and saw decent gains (TPX +0.52%, NKY +0.59%). Australia also ended higher (+0.55%). News was quiet in Asia other than some eco headlines – the China NBS Apr PMIs were mildly underwhelming while Macau Apr gaming revs and Japan’s manufacturing PMI were both about inline. Within the NKY, tech was by far the top performer (the Japanese info tech index ended up ~3.8%) while materials did well too (energy, discretionary, healthcare, and utilities lagged). Tokyo Electron and Nippon Electric Glass both surged on earnings (up ~13.3% and ~11.7%, respectively); note that Tokyo Electron is just the latest pos. data point for semi equipment (semi equipment stocks have posted very healthy results).

Top Asian News

  • Korea Exports Surge for Sixth Month on Ships and Semiconductors
  • North Korea Test-Fires a Ballistic Missile: Yonhap
  • China April Manufacturing PMI at 51.2; Est. 51.7
  • Japan Govt Considers Installing Aegis Defense System: Kyodo
  • Mongolia Expects IMF Bailout to Happen ‘Soon’ After Postponement
  • Lotte Chairman to Meet Hershey Chairman on U.S Trip: Yonhap
  • PBOC Official Says China Should Deleverage Properly: Caijing
  • Freeport Union Says About 8,000 Grasberg Workers Join Strike
  • Nakheel, Hilton Agree Partnership for Rooms, Apartments in Dubai
  • Macau Casino Revenue Gains for Ninth Month With High-Stakes Bets

Most European markets are closed due to the Labor Day/May 1 holiday.

Top European News

  • Le Pen Says Her Presidency Will Lead to the End of the Eur
  • Macron, Le Pen Kick Off Final Week With Major Paris Rallies
  • Britain’s May Sticks to Guns Seeking Parallel Brexit Talks
  • Renzi Faces Uphill Battle to Italy Premiership After Primary Win
  • Novo Settles U.S. Probe of Kickbacks, Disguised Salespeople
  • DLR Kredit Plans to Issue DKK1b in Senior Resolution Notes
  • Alitalia Bridge Loan to Be Higher Than EU500m, La Stampa Says
  • Luxottica 1Q Rev. Soft, Improving Trends May Be Supportive: RBC
  • AB Science FY Revenue Decreases to EU1.5m
  • Netherlands April Manufacturing PMI Unchanged at 57.8
  • Danske Bank Raised to Strong Buy at Jyske Bank, PT DKK300
  • Turkey’s Erdogan Says Need to Alleviate Exchange-Rate Pressure

In currencies, the yen fell as much as 0.4 percent to 111.92 per dollar to the lowest level since the end of March and traded at 111.74 in early morning trading. The currency last week had the biggest slide since the Fed raised U.S. rates in December. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent, while the broader dollar DXY index was up 0.2 percent at 111.750 yen edging back towards a four-week peak of 111.780 reached last week. The euro handed back earlier modest gains and was flat at $1.0891. The common currency had been lifted on Friday after euro zone inflation data rose more than expected and returned to the European Central Bank’s target. The euro was still in range of the 5-1/2-month high of $1.0951 struck early last week on relief over the first round of the French presidential elections. The pound was 0.3 percent lower at $1.2907 after climbing to a seven-month high of $1.2957 on Friday, when traders were seen to have closed off bets against the pound ahead of Britain’s long bank holiday weekend.  The Australian and New Zealand dollars were slightly lower at $0.7483 and $0.6856, respectively.

In commodities, crude oil prices slipped amid lingering concerns that an OPEC-led production cut has failed to significantly tighten an oversupplied market.U.S. crude shed 11 cents to $49.22 a barrel, heading back towards a one-month low of $48.20 plumbed late last week and Brent LCOc1 was down 16 cents at $51.89 per barrel. Oil was weighed by news that US rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose for 15th week while output from Libya rebounded. The number of oil rigs operating in U.S. fields advanced to most since April 2015, according to Baker Hughes. Libya’s crude production rebounded to more than 700k b/d as the OPEC member’s biggest oil field and another deposit in its western region resumed pumping after halt. “Higher prices will attract American producers to ramp up production, especially in profitable areas like the Permian basin, and the conflict in Libya was already winding down last week,” says Sheldon Laliberte, a Rotterdam-based crude oil analyst at commodities trader Cofco International Ltd. “I’m structurally bearish oil right now.”

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%; Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
    • Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
    • PCE Deflator MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.1%
    • PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.9%, prior 2.1%
    • PCE Core MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.2%
    • PCE Core YoY, est. 1.6%, prior 1.8%
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.8, prior 52.8
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 56.5, prior 57.2
    • ISM Prices Paid, est. 67.5, prior 70.5
    • ISM New Orders, prior 64.5
    • ISM Employment, prior 58.9
    • Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.45%, prior 0.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to May. Given that today is either a May Day or Labour Day public holiday in most European countries we’ll be holding back the usual monthly performance review for tomorrow’s EMR. As always though we’ve got the full run through of what is another reasonably busy week ahead at the end. For markets this week we’ve got the double header of a Fed meeting on Wednesday and US employment report on Friday. Barring a big surprise though it’s more than likely that the Fed meeting is a bit of non-event and it’s hard to see the FOMC statement really diverging off course for now. It’s worth noting that there is no scheduled press conference after the meeting either. In terms of payrolls, the emphasis for now in terms of the timing and pace of global hikes in recent months has shifted away from employment and over to inflation and so this release is probably less of a focal point than it has been in the past.

Away from that, this week we’ll also get the final revisions to the April global PMIs which will be closely watched as always. Meanwhile ahead of this Sunday’s second round presidential election in France the two candidates, Macron and Le Pen, are scheduled to take part in a live televised debate on Wednesday evening which is certainly worth keeping an eye on. The last 5 polls all released in the past few days show Macron as holding an average lead of 20pp over Le Pen. This is down marginally from the 24pp average in the first 5 polls after the first round result but still represents a pretty comfortable margin for Macron. As we said this time last week it would take a numerical shock perhaps 5-10 times larger than Brexit or Trump for Le Pen to win. Staying with politics, this week President Trump is scheduled to meet Palestinian Authority President Abbas on Wednesday and Australian Prime Minister Turnbull on Thursday. After Congress averted a government shutdown on Friday lawmakers are also expected to hammer out the necessary legislation this week to keep the government funded for the rest of this fiscal year. In fact overnight news has emerged that Congress has tentatively reached a deal on a $1.1tn bill so worth seeing how that develops today. Meanwhile the situation in North Korea is never too far from the front pages with US National Security Adviser McMaster telling Fox News that the US and its allies need to respond, whether that be through military operations or enforcement of UN sanctions, following the news of a ballistic missile launch in North Korea on Saturday.

Not to be outdone, this week is another fairly big one for earnings with 131 S&P 500 companies and 85 Stoxx 600 companies reporting. Amongst the big names are Apple (Tuesday), BP (Tuesday), Facebook (Wednesday) and Shell (Thursday).

We’ll see if they can continue what has been a decent start to earnings season to date. Indeed the trend so far is one of the strongest on record. In the US we have had reports from about 60% of the S&P 500 and 81% have beat at the earnings line, coming in 6.7% above consensus. This compares to the historical beat of 73% of companies and a median beat of 3.4%. This is made even more impressive by the fact that consensus estimates were not downgraded in the month leading up to earnings season compared to a typical 1% downgrade according to DB’s Binky Chadha. He notes also that the results so far point to 15% EPS growth in Q1 which is the fastest pace since 2011. Our European equity strategists note also that EPS growth of Stoxx 600 companies has accelerated to 23% with reported earnings being 13% above pre-season expectations.

Switching our focus now to the main weekend news. In terms of data, the main focus was on China where yesterday we got the official April PMIs. The data came in a little bit softer compared to March. The manufacturing PMI was reported as falling 0.6pts to 51.2 (vs. 51.7 expected) and the lowest level this year, while the non-manufacturing PMI declined 1.1pts to 54.0 and the lowest since October last year. The majority of markets in Asia are closed today including China so we might have to wait to see if there is much of a reaction tomorrow. Of those open however both the Nikkei (+0.50%) and ASX (+0.29%) have edged higher on thin volumes while US equity futures are also slightly firmer. The Greenback also rebounded from early losses following the spending bill headlines.

In terms of other news to report from the weekend, in Italy former PM Renzi was re-elected as the head of the ruling Democratic Party after securing more than 70% of votes. His reappointment was largely as expected however the margin of victory will likely be seen as giving Renzi a strong mandate ahead of a general election early next year. Meanwhile the latest Brexit development concerns the release of the European Council guidelines which are intended to govern the EU’s Brexit negotiations with the UK (you can find them here https://goo.gl/ nW8NBO) which were unanimously backed following a gathering in Brussels on Saturday. EU President Donald Tusk said following the meeting that “we now have unanimous support from all the 27 member states and the EU institutions, giving us a strong political mandate for these negotiations”. EC President Juncker added that “the negotiations will be difficult and it will be even difficult to retain the unity that we were able to have today”.

A quick wrap-up now of how markets closed out last week. Following a strong run for most of the week, risk assets seemed to run out of steam a bit on Friday. Despite some decent earnings in the tech sector from Amazon and Alphabet the S&P 500 (-0.19%), Dow (-0.19%), Stoxx 600 (-0.18%) and DAX (-0.05%) all finished with what were fairly modest losses still as markets digested a huge amount of economic data released on both sides on the pond. Much of the focus was on the Q1 GDP report in the US which revealed growth of just +0.7% qoq (vs. +1.0% expected). A negative contribution from inventories was cited as significantly weighing on growth along with a decline in government consumption. Private consumption eked out a small +0.3% saar gain. Our US economists estimate also that one reason for the weakness is residual seasonality with government statisticians not properly adjusting the data for normal seasonal variation. They estimate this to be worth 110bps on Q1 real GDP. Rates markets were seemingly more distracted by the ECI print however which came in at a higher than expected +0.8% qoq (vs. +0.6% expected) and the largest quarterly increase since Q4 2007. 10y Treasury yields touched a high of 2.334% intraday following that before settling down to finish just over 1bp lower on the day at 2.281%.

Away from that, in the US we also got the April Chicago PMI which was up 0.6pts to 58.3 in the month (vs. 56.2 expected). The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for April was revised down 1pt to 97.0. Measures of inflation expectations were left unchanged however.

Closer to home in Europe the main focus was on the April CPI report for the Euro area. Headline CPI rebounded four-tenths to +1.9% yoy last month (vs. +1.8% expected) while the core rebounded five-tenths to +1.2% yoy (vs. +1.0% expected) which is the highest since June 2013. Given the timing of Easter – with services inflation accounting for the big jump – we will need to see another month of data to assess how much of the move has been sustained in reality. Away from that, Q1 GDP in the UK came in at +0.3% qoq which was also the same for growth in France. Both were a tenth below expectations.

Over to this week’s calendar now. As highlighted earlier, with it being a public holiday in the UK, Germany and France amongst other countries today, the main focus will be on the US session where there are a number of important releases include the PCE core and deflator readings and personal income and spending reports for March, as well as the ISM manufacturing reading for April and construction spending in March. Tuesday kicks off in Asia with the Japan services and composite April PMIs and Caixin manufacturing PMI in China. Over in Europe all eyes will be on the final April manufacturing PMIs as well as a first look at the data for the periphery and UK. The Euro area unemployment rate will also be released. In the US tomorrow the only data due out is vehicle sales in April.

Kicking things off on Wednesday will be Germany where the April unemployment numbers are due to be released. Shortly after that we’ll get Euro area PPI for March and then the advanced Q1 GDP report for the Euro area. In the US on Wednesday we’ll get the ADP employment change report in April and the final April PMIs and ISM non-manufacturing reading. In the evening on Wednesday all eyes then turn over to the Fed meeting. In Asia on Thursday the early data is out of China with the remaining April Caixin PMIs. In Europe we’ll also get the remaining April services and composite PMIs as well as Euro area retail sales in March and UK money and credit aggregates data. In the US on Thursday the data includes initial jobless claims, Q1 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs, March trade balance, March factory orders and the final revisions to March durable and capital goods orders. With little of note in Europe on Friday the main focus will be on the US where we’ll get the April employment report including nonfarm payrolls.

Away from the data, this week’s Fedspeak is reserved for Friday when we’ll hear separately from Fischer, Williams and Yellen, as well as a panel debate with Rosengren, Evans and Bullard. Over at the ECB this week we are due to hear from Nouy and Nowotny on Tuesday and Lautenschlaeger, Praet, Draghi and Mersch on Thursday. At the BoJ we are due to hear from Kuroda on Tuesday, as well as receiving the minutes from the BoJ meeting last month. Other important events this week include a Fox interview with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin today, a meeting between Germany’s Merkel and Russia’s Putin on Tuesday, Wednesday’s live televised debate between French presidential candidates Macron and Le Pen, Wednesday’s meeting between President Trump and Palestinian Authority President Abbas and UK local elections on Thursday. Finally, expect earnings to also be a big focus for markets this week with 131 S&P 500 companies reporting and 85 Stoxx 600 companies reporting. Amongst those reporting are Apple, BP, BNP Paribas, Facebook, Merck, Tesla, Time Warner, Pfizer, HSBC, BMW, Shell and VW.

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Ja Rule And Fyre Festival Slapped With $100 Million Lawsuit For Multiple Counts Of Fraud

Well, it’s been a little over four days since thousands of attendees at an ill fated music festival in the Bahamas were left to fend for themselves in a Millennial’s worst nightmare of dying cell phonescardboard sandwiches, burning tents, roving bands of thievesferal dogs, and worst of all – anarchy at the bar.  Advertised as having “first-class culinary experiences and a luxury atmosphere,” things like the “Private Luxury Villas” turned out to be nothing more than USAID disaster relief tents:

The festival was quickly canceled after the story broke, with event organizers Ja Rule (real name Jeffrey Atkins) and Billy McFarland sort of apologizing:

Sunday evening, a class-action lawsuit was filed against event organizers Ja Rule, Billy McFarland, and their company, Fyre Media, Inc. A copy of the filing was provided to iBankCoin.com by Geragos & Geragos – the high profile law firm which has represented such clients as Michael Jackson, Chris Brown, Winona Ryder, Ke$ha, and former Bill Clinton business partner Sousan McDougal.

Filed in a California Court, Plaintiff Daniel Jung asserts:

The festival’s lack of adequate food, water, shelter, and medical care created a dangerous and panicked situation among attendees—suddenly finding themselves stranded on a remote island without basic provisions—that was closer to ‘The Hunger Games’ or ‘Lord of the Flies’ than Coachella.

Damages in excess of $100 million:

Plaintiff brings this class action on behalf of all ticket buyers and festival attendees defrauded and wronged by Defendants, and seeks damages in excess of $100,000,000.00 on behalf of himself and the Class.

Here’s where the fraud comes in:

Shockingly, Defendants had been aware for months that their festival was dangerously under-equipped and posed a serious danger to anyone in attendance…  …the few contractors who had been retained by Defendants were refusing to work because they had not been paid.

At the same time, however, Defendants were knowingly lying about the festival’s accommodations and safety, and continued to promote the event and sell ticket packages. The festival was even promoted as being on a “private island” once owned by drug kingpin Pablo Escobar—the island isn’t private, as there is a “Sandals” resort down the road, and Pablo Escobar never owned the island.

The suit describes the harrowing conditions:

Festival-goers survived on bare rations, little more than bread and a slice of cheese, and tried to escape the elements in the only shelter provided by Defendants: small clusters of ‘FEMA tents,’ exposed on a sand bar, that were soaked and battered by wind and rain.

“With only unsecured tents as accommodations, rather than the promised villas, attendees had no secure area to store valuables and other personal items. Similarly, the ‘world-class cuisine’ was nowhere to be found, replaced by meager rations that were in dangerously short supply. Even more troublingly, festival staff were nowhere to be found to address attendees’ concerns, and the medical staff was similarly absent.

As the weekend turned to chaos, attendees found themselves trapped at the ‘cashless’ event:

(not actual event picture)

Faced with the complete lack of even the most basic amenities, as well as no assistance from Defendants, festival attendees began to panic. Predictably, Attendees began attempting to leave the island en masse, but found themselves trapped—even locked inside an airport awaiting delayed flights.

Attendees’ efforts to escape the unfolding disaster were hamstrung by their reliance upon Defendants for transportation, as well as by the fact that Defendants promoted the festival as a ‘cashless’ eventDefendants instructed attendees to upload funds to a wristband for use at the festival rather than bringing any cash. As such, Attendees were unable to purchase basic transportation on local taxis or busses, which accept only cash. As a result … at least one attendee suffered a medical emergency and lost consciousness after being locked inside a nearby building with other concert-goers waiting to be airlifted from the island.

Ja Rule and McFarland even warned performers not to attend!

Mr. McFarland and Mr. Atkins began personally reaching out to performers and celebrities in advance of the festival and warned them not to attend—acknowledging the fact that the festival was outrageously underequipped and potentially dangerous for anyone in attendance.

A statement from Jung’s attorney:

While we don’t know how solvent Fyre Media, Inc. is at this point, event organizer Ja Rule (Jeffrey Atkins), a rapper and actor who spent two years in federal prison on gun and tax evasion charges, is estimated to be worth at least $8 million dollars.

Maybe it’s time to give Mariah a call? Somehow I don’t think the no-refund policy is going to hold up in court…

 

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com * Follow on Twitter @ZeroPointNow

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Reason Wins 3 Maggie Awards From the Western Publishing Association!

Even our online articles see print sometimes. ||| Metro TimesFor 66 years, the Western Publishing Association has issued annual magazine awards, known as “Maggies,” to publications west of the Mississippi River, including as far westward as Hawaii. Reason has won a handful over the years, including one for Best Magazine in the “politics and social issues” in 2005 (an aberration in our otherwise Susan Lucci status in that category).

On Friday night, after having nabbed a record-for-us 13 Maggie nominations, we won an also record-for-us three first place awards, topping the two we received in 2013. Please join me in congratulating….

* C.J. Ciaramella, winner of Best Web or eNewsletter Article, for the great piece “Why Are Detroit Cops Killing So Many Dogs? A Reason investigation reveals widespread, unchecked violence against pets during drug raids—including two officers who have shot more than 100.”

Can we talk about this article for a second? Here’s a Detroit News editorial in response, leveraging C.J.’s work to pressure local officials:

Detroit police have shot at least 21 dogs this year, according to a November report from Reason magazine. Officers killed at least 25 dogs in 2015.

Thorough records of how many dogs are shot by police nationwide are hard to come by because there’s no required reporting on police and dog encounters. But the report found that much larger Chicago had 84 incidents in which an officer fired a weapon over that same time span. New York police killed nine dogs in 2014, and the Los Angeles Police Department admitted to killing eight dogs in 2015.

Calling fatal police/dog encounters an “epidemic,” a program specialist at the Department of Justice’s Community Oriented Policing Services estimated that 25-30 pet dogs nationwide are killed every day by cops.

Lawsuits filed by pet owners often conflict with the official reports of an incident. In most cases, dogs that were killed are described as “vicious” and deadly force was required for self-protection. The Reason report found that one Detroit officer has shot at least 40 dogs while on duty, and another destroyed 67 animals while with the Police Department.

Those are staggering numbers. And while there are pit bulls and other intimidating dogs in any major city, that doesn’t give officers the right to essentially take property by killing otherwise non-threatening pets.

The iPhone has been drinking. ||| Matt WelchThe piece was reprinted as a cover story in the Metro News. Fox News picked the story up. C.J. has written three follow-ups (1, 2, 3). As I said at the awards ceremony, while the rest of the journalism world has rediscovered police abuse over the past three years, Reason has been working this beat for decades, and C.J.’s vigorous work on the topic since coming on staff is testament to how we’re not just embedding the latest video outrage, but advancing stories in ways which will hopefully begin impacting behavior by enforcers and lawmakers themselves. This is why you people donate your hard-earned money to support our efforts, and for that we thank you.

Also winning, for Best Regularly Featured Web or eNewsletter Column, was the acerbic and witty writer Brendan O’Neill, for two pieces: “America Called Bullshit on the Cult of Clinton: The one good thing about Trump’s win? It shows a willingness among Americans to blaspheme against saints and reject the religion of hollow progressiveness,” and “Elitist Rage With the Pro-Brexit Masses Echoes Longstanding British Suspicion of Democracy: Reptiles, insects, shit flowing from the busted sewer of bad ideas—this is how the media elite views the minds and actions of Brexit voters.”

And, praise Jeebus, the Best Publication Blog was this thing that you are reading, while perhaps wrestling with the incumbent squirrels. We thank you for your role in contributing to this win.

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Japan Deploys Warship To Support US ‘Armada’, Authorizes “Necessary Use Of Weapons” For First Time Since World War II

In a post-World War II precedent-setting move (under the country’s expanded military doctrine), the Japanese Navy has reportedly deployed a helicopter carrier (and authorized it to use weapons, if necessary), to escort and protect a US supply vessel.

Defense Minister Tomomi Inada ordered the Izumo Maritime Self-Defense Force helicopter carrier to protect a US Navy supply ship, which is heading towards the Pacific to resupply the American armada sent by Donald Trump to keep North Korean nuclear ambitions at bay, sources told Kyodo news.

The Japanese helicopter carrier is set to depart Yokosuka port in Kanagawa Prefecture to Monday to escort the US Navy supply ship from waters off the Boso Peninsula, near Tokyo, to the area off Shikoku, one of the four main islands of Japan. Japanese media reports that the US ship could be delivering supplies to the aircraft carrier – the USS Carl Vinson striking group, that is now conducting a joint exercise with South Korea’s navy in the Sea of Japan. To ensure success of their escort mission, the Japanese seamen have been authorized the “minimum necessary use of weapons,” to deter any attacks amid North Korean threats to sink US ships, the Japan Times reports.

As RT notes, Monday's Izumo deployment will set a new milestone for the Japanese Navy which has not escorted any military vessels, outside of troop exercises, since the adoption of a pacifist constitution following Japan's defeat in World War II.  In 2015, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party passed legislation to allow the country’s military to participate in foreign conflicts, overturning its previous policy of fighting only in self-defense. Since the Japanese constitution only allowed Japanese armed forces to act in self-defense, the legislation reinterpreted the relevant passages to allow the military to operate with overseas allies in “collective self-defense.”

The latest Kyodo News survey showed the Japanese are divided over whether or not to amend the Article 9 of the Constitution, which outlaws war as a means to settle international disputes. According to the figures, 49 percent of some 3,000 mail-in respondents said Article 9 must be revised while 47 percent oppose the change. Some 75 percent of respondents who support the pacifist constitution claimed that Article 9 allowed the country to stay out of world conflicts since World War II.

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Path To Le Pen Victory: What Would It Take?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Recent opinion polls for round two of the French election on May 7 show Emanuel Macron with 59-60% and Marine Le Pen 40-41%.

Le Pen is trending up from April 24 results that were as low as 36-37%.

Still, Le Pen has a long way to go. Can she close the gap? How?

French Election Polls

The above from French Election Polls on Wikipedia.

Results show the two candidates combined only got 45% of the vote in the first round. Apathy and distrust are strong.

Political Ambush

On Wednesday, April 27, Macron met with striking Whirlpool workers at a planned event in Amiens, Macron’s hometown. In a surprise political ambush, Le Pen showed up first and was greeted with cheers and selfie opportunities.

Macron Faces Hostile Crowd

The most recent poll show Macron falling below 60%. There may be more fallout from the ambush coming up. Even if one believes that support for Le Pen is a bit understated, picking up another 7-9% is a tough act to expect.

Close the Gap? How?

It’s possible Le Pen closes the gap, in a roundabout way: abstentions. Eurointelligence explains.

The researcher Serge Galam confirms what we suspected all along: it does not take much for Marine Le Pen to win if voters abstain. Galam looked into what it takes for her to win under different abstention scenarios. He starts with the vote intentions as suggested by the polls, 42% for Le Pen and 58% for Emmanuel Macron. Then, if 90% of the FN voters go to vote but only 65% of those for Macron, Le Pen would end up winning with 50.07%. For Macron the threshold to win is thus 65.17%. This threshold is even higher the closer the two get in the polls. Assuming Le Pen wins two points in the polls and gets 44% of voters intentions, then the threshold for Macron would be 70.71%. So for 2 extra points in the voters intentions for Le Pen the barrier for Macron to win rises by 5 percentage points. We know that the voters behind Le Pen are much more loyal and steadfast than the votes for Macron. Many backed Macron unenthusiastically to block Le Pen. Since the first round, there is a clear rise in aversion against Macron. The absence of a clear backing from Mélenchon and the hashtag #SansMoiLe7Mai on twitter give solidarity to those who consider abstaining, Le Figaro explains. Students from schools and universities mobilized yesterday for a ni-ni: a no to Le Pen and her nationalism, and a no to Macron as a “boss”.

Ni-Ni Mobilized, SansMoiLe7Mai

A ni-ni is “neither nor”. SansMoiLe7Mai translates as “Without Me May 7”.

Abstentions

An amazing 71-80% of those who supported Benoît Hamon are for Macron, with as low as 1% for Le Pen. But Hamon only received 6.36% of the vote in round one.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon received 19.58% of the vote while François Fillon received 20.01%. Those are the votes that will matter most. It is difficult to judge the likelihood of that combined 39.58% block of disenfranchised voters does indeed vote in round two.

Looking at the first set of polls at the top, somewhere between 17% and 29% of the electorate plans to abstain. The average of 22%, 29%, and 17% is 22.67%. Those abstainers are already factored into the 59-41% poll estimate for May 7.

Voting Intention Averages

  • On average, 39.33% of Mélenchon supporters claim they will abstain. 39.33% of 19.58% is 7.66%.
  • On average, 30.67% of Fillon supporters claim they will abstain. 30.67% of 20.01% is 6.14%.
  • On average, 24.33% of Hamon supporters claim they will abstain. 24.33% of 6.36% is 1.55%.

Curiously, the combined abstainers from the Mélenchon plus Fillon plus Hamon camp is only 15.35% whereas the average overall abstention percentage is 22.67%.

That margin says suggests there is an extra pool of voters who intend to sit this out. Assuming Le Pen supporters are more enthusiastic, the extra block of abstainers must come primarily from those who voted for Macron but now intend to sit it out.

Determining Questions

  1. Will enough weak Macron supporters turn up to vote?
  2. Will the “ni-ni” campaign have an impact that does not show up in the polls?
  3. Is there a pool of Le Pen supporters who simply do not tell pollsters their intention?
  4. Will Macron’s Whirlpool gaffe be a factor?

To win, Le Pen needs to capitalize on Macron’s gaffe. She also needs low turnout and a ni-ni impact that affects Macron more than it does her.

This is an uphill battle, but possible, and more likely than most expect.

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The North Korea Nightmare Continues

Authored by Harry Kazianis via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

If North Korea truly desires state of the art nuclear weapons and missiles – something that can deliver an atomic payload to say Los Angeles – then we are indeed in for some tense time ahead.

The only way Kim Jong-un – the portly pariah of Pyongyang – can truly develop a medium-range missile that can hit even Hawaii or Alaska is through a rigorous testing program. Even in failure, the Kim regime gains vital technical data that creates pathways to future success. The same goes for making nuclear weapons small enough to place atop such a missile. While Washington, Moscow or Beijing might have mastered the Jedi arts of nuclear weapons decades ago, North Korea is still in padawan mode—but making slow and steady progress.

From there it could get worse. What happens if a North Korean missile test goes wrong, and say crashes on South Korean or Japanese territory? What happens if innocent civilians are killed? As I explained recently, it could set Asia on a path to war:

Let's say in the not-too-distant future a North Korean missile veered off course and crash landed in the outskirts of Seoul, killing several hundred people in a tragic accident. South Korea would be hard pressed not to respond. In this fictional tale, Seoul would strike back with a missile of its own, destroying the North Korean launcher and crew responsible.

So where do we go from here? As I have explained on a few occasions now, we do have options short of a unilateral strikenot an option at all if you consider what happens if you can’t guarantee taking out every single one of Kim’s nuclear weapons.

First, President Trump and his team must work to contain North Korea's nuclear and missile programs so they are unable to gain any outside assistance. Tough secondary sanctions would be placed on any nation, financial entity, company, or individual who dares help the regime develop such weapons. The Trump administration must make it clear: if you seek to profit from helping one of the world's most rogue regimes build nuclear weapons or long-range missiles you will pay the most severe of prices—slapped with the label of international pariah. While sanctions won’t solve the problem entirely, or erase the nuclear knowledge from the minds of North Korea’s scientists, such measures could greatly slow the rate of technological development and raise the costs of such work for Pyongyang.

 

Second, the Trump administration must use sophisticated cyber tools, just as the Obama administration did in the case of Iran's nuclear program, to trip up North Korea’s nuclear and missile efforts at every turn. While reports indicate such efforts seem underway, the administration should make every effort to ramp these programs up as much as possible. Again, the goal would be to slow the progress of these programs, and increase their cost.

 

Lastly, and as repulsive as it sounds, the time has come where talks with North Korea would be most wise – something the administration now seems open to after remarks to the contrary. To be fair, history shows such an option has a slim chance of success—Pyongyang is not exactly the most reliable of negotiating partners and has rarely kept its word. But considering the risks, we owe it to our allies and the American people—the potential new targets of North Korea’s nuclear tipped missiles—to act on Winston Churchill’s axiom: to jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.

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20 Amazing Things That Happen Every Single Minute Of Every Single Day In Our Rapidly Changing World

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Our world is changing at a blinding pace that is accelerating with each passing day. 

Thanks to the Internet, information travels at a speed that would have been unimaginable at other times in human history, and our technological capabilities are advancing at a rate that is exponentially increasing.  What all of this means is that seismic cultural shifts that used to take decades can now be accomplished in a matter of months or even weeks

The following are 20 amazing facts about what happens every single minute of every single day in our rapidly changing world… 

#1 250 babies will be born, and 113 of them will be born into poverty.

#2 500 hours of video will be uploaded to YouTube.

#3 The Earth will travel 1,118 miles around the sun.

#4 McDonald’s will sell 4,500 hamburgers.

#5 Lightning will strike our planet about 6,000 times .

#6 28,500 trees will be cut down.

#7 51,000 applications will be downloaded from Apple’s App Store.

#8 65,000 barrels of oil will be used used.

#9 People will watch 64,444 hours of content on Netflix.

#10 120,673 pounds of edible food will be thrown away in the United States.

#11 $203,596 worth of products will be sold on Amazon.com.

#12 448,800 tweets will be posted on Twitter.

#13 527,760 photos will be shared on Snapchat.

#14 3.3 million posts will be made to Facebook.

#15 3.8 million Google searches will be conducted.

#16 5 million pounds of garbage will be generated.

#17 6 million chemical reactions will happen in each one of our cells.

#18 20.8 million messages will be sent using WhatsApp.

#19 25 million Coca-Cola products will be consumed.

#20 204 million emails will be sent.

So will all of this change lead to a wonderfully positive future for humanity, or will it result in a dystopian nightmare?  Only time will tell, but what everyone can agree on is that our world is rapidly becoming a much different place than the world that our parents and grandparents grew up in.

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Doug Casey On Why Gold Is Money

Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

It’s an unfortunate historical anomaly that people think about the paper in their wallets as money. The dollar is, technically, a currency. A currency is a government substitute for money. But gold is money.

Now, why do I say that?

Historically, many things have been used as money. Cattle have been used as money in many societies, including Roman society. That’s where we get the word “pecuniary” from: the Latin word for a single head of cattle is pecus. Salt has been used as money, also in ancient Rome, and that’s where the word “salary” comes from; the Latin for salt is sal (or salis). The North American Indians used seashells. Cigarettes were used during WWII. So, money is simply a medium of exchange and a store of value.

By that definition, almost anything could be used as money, but obviously, some things work better than others; it’s hard to exchange things people don’t want, and some things don’t store value well. Over thousands of years, the precious metals have emerged as the best form of money. Gold and silver both, though primarily gold.

There’s nothing magical about gold. It’s just uniquely well suited among the 98 naturally occurring elements for use as money…in the same way aluminum is good for airplanes or uranium is good for nuclear power.

There are very good reasons for this, and they are not new reasons. Aristotle defined five reasons why gold is money in the 4th century BCE (which may only have been the first time it was put down on paper). Those five reasons are as valid today as they were then.

When I give a speech, I often offer a prize to the audience member who can tell me the five classical reasons gold is the best money. Quickly now—what are they? Can’t recall them? Read on, and this time, burn them into your memory.

Money

If you can’t define a word precisely, clearly, and quickly, that’s proof you don’t understand what you’re talking about as well as you might. The proper definition of money is as something that functions as a store of value and a medium of exchange.

Government fiat currencies can, and currently do, function as money. But they are far from ideal. What, then, are the characteristics of a good money? Aristotle listed them in the 4th century BCE. A good money must be all of the following:

  • Durable: A good money shouldn’t fall apart in your pocket nor evaporate when you aren’t looking. It should be indestructible. This is why we don’t use fruit for money. It can rot, be eaten by insects, and so on. It doesn’t last.

  • Divisible: A good money needs to be convertible into larger and smaller pieces without losing its value, to fit a transaction of any size. This is why we don’t use things like porcelain for money—half a Ming vase isn’t worth much.

  • Consistent: A good money is something that always looks the same, so that it’s easy to recognize, each piece identical to the next. This is why we don’t use things like oil paintings for money; each painting, even by the same artist, of the same size and composed of the same materials is unique. It’s also why we don’t use real estate as money. One piece is always different from another piece.

  • Convenient: A good money packs a lot of value into a small package and is highly portable. This is why we don’t use water for money, as essential as it is—just imagine how much you’d have to deliver to pay for a new house, not to mention all the problems you’d have with the escrow. It’s also why we don’t use other metals like lead, or even copper. The coins would have to be too huge to handle easily to be of sufficient value.

  • Intrinsically valuable: A good money is something many people want or can use. This is critical to money functioning as a means of exchange; even if I’m not a jeweler, I know that someone, somewhere wants gold and will take it in exchange for something else of value to me. This is why we don’t—or shouldn’t—use things like scraps of paper for money, no matter how impressive the inscriptions upon them might be.

Actually, there’s a sixth reason Aristotle should have mentioned, but it wasn’t relevant in his age, because nobody would have thought of it…it can’t be created out of thin air.

Not even the kings and emperors who clipped and diluted coins would have dared imagine that they could get away with trying to use something essentially worthless as money.

These are the reasons why gold is the best money. It’s not a gold bug religion, nor a barbaric superstition. It’s simply common sense. Gold is particularly good for use as money, just as aluminum is particularly good for making aircraft, steel is good for the structures of buildings, uranium is good for fueling nuclear power plants, and paper is good for making books. Not money. If you try to make airplanes out of lead, or money out of paper, you’re in for a crash.

That gold is money is simply the result of the market process, seeking optimum means of storing value and making exchanges.

*  *  *

Doug thinks the price of gold could hit $5,000 in the coming years. To help you take advantage of this rare opportunity, he’s sharing the specific method he’s used to make gains as large as 487%, 711%, and even 4,329% in previous gold bull markets. The “Casey Method” is unlike any other investing strategy. If used properly, it could make you HUGE gains over the next few years. Doug explains it all right here. You’ll also learn how to get instant access to a special report that names 9 gold stocks with huge upside. Each of these stocks could rise 100%, 200%, or more in the coming years. Click here to get started.

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No, the NSA Has NOT Stopped Spying On Americans’ Emails

The NSA announced Friday that they would stop the controversial program which sweeps up all emails and text messages which an American exchanges with someone overseas that makes reference to a real target of NSA surveillance.

By way of background, if Russia’s Putin was an NSA target, and an American received an email from a Russian saying “I hate Putin”, then that American could be surveilled by the NSA.

Washington’s Blog asked Bill Binney what he thought of the NSA’s announcement.

Binney is the NSA executive who created the agency’s mass surveillance program for digital information, who served as the senior technical director within the agency, who managed six thousand NSA employees, the 36-year NSA veteran widely regarded as a “legend” within the agency and the NSA’s best-ever analyst and code-breaker, who mapped out the Soviet command-and-control structure before anyone else knew how, and so predicted Soviet invasions before they happened (“in the 1970s, he decrypted the Soviet Union’s command system, which provided the US and its allies with real-time surveillance of all Soviet troop movements and Russian atomic weapons”).  Binney is the real McCoy.  Binney has been interviewed by virtually all of the mainstream media, including CBS, ABC, CNN, New York Times, USA Today, Fox News, PBS and many others.

Specifically, we asked Binney:

Do you buy it? http://ift.tt/2puWulx 

Or do you think they’re just collecting under a different authorization/program?

Binney responded:

Short answer, NO.

 

This is a farce given the bulk continuous domestic data collection and storage from the Upstream programs: Fairview, Stormbrew and Blarney. [Here’s background on Fairview/Stormbrew/Blarney.]

 

This FAA 702 [Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act] has been a charade from the beginning. [Specifically, the NSA is spying on all Americans under Executive Order 12333, and only talking about Section 702 to confuse people as to what they’re doing.]

 

It was a way to make people/congress/judiciary think that they were trying to conform to the law.

And, by spreading false information, which our useless MSM fail to challenge, it’s a way of subverting our republic – all done in secret with only a few people in the know of what really is going on.

 

Meanwhile in the background, NSA through program “Muscular” was unilaterally tapping the fiber lines between Google and Yahoo and others data centers; so that when they backed up their data between centers, NSA got it all and the companies did not even know that was happening.

Absolutely nothing has changed.

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