Month: November 2017

Confirming reports from earlier in the week that the EU and UK have agreed on a financial settment for outstanding obligations as well as a formula for calculating the Brexit “divorce” bill, Reuters is out with the following headlines:

• EUROPEAN UNION HAS AGREED A FINANCIAL SETTLEMENT WITH BRITAIN ON FUTURE COMMITMENTS – SENIOR EU OFFICIAL
• LONDON HAS COMMITTED TO PAYING A SET SHARE OF EU BUDGETS AFTER LEAVING EU – SENIOR EU OFFICIAL
• NO DISCUSSION OF NUMBERS, BUT BRITAIN AGREES ON FORMULA FOR CALCULATING BRITISH DIVORCE BILL – SENIOR EU OFFICIAL

With much of the rally in cable having already taken place in the past few days, which have seen the pair surge by 300 pips in three days, GBPUSD is up 30 pips on the headlines, once again pushing on 1.3520 despite the strong USD.

via http://ift.tt/2AruxAX Tyler Durden

At the start of the year, one of the often repeated risk factors was that a trade war between China and the US could break out due to Trump’s hardline stance on the US trade deficit with Beijing. Since then, such fears have largely faded as the status quo re-established itself, and trade between the two nations has proceeded largely unchanged. However, one year later, dark clouds may finally be gathering.

According to the FT, the Trump administration has put its main programme for bolstering economic relations with China on ice “as it complains about the two countries’ swollen trade imbalance and says Beijing’s efforts to liberalise its economy have gone into reverse.” This was reveled in an FT interview with David Malpass, a top economic diplomat for the administration and who is currently undersecretary for international affairs at the US Treasury Department, who said that the Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) with Beijing is “stalled” and that there are no plans to revive talks. The decision comes after the dialogue between the two countries in July ended without any tangible progress, the FT adds. The sudden breach in relations comes at an odd time, with Trump attempting to convince Beijing to pressure North Korea over its nuclear missile programme.

Meanwhile, the White House is taking an increasingly confrontational approach in its economic relations, including by opposing China’s bid for recognition as a “market economy” in the World Trade Organisation, as reported this morning.

Malpass spoke of the CED in the past tense, saying it had been intended to make progress on market liberalisation and the economic dialogue between the two countries.

“China is not moving in a market-oriented direction so for now the CED is also stalled,” he said on a visit to New York. “There is not a dialogue on restarting the CED. The critical step is for China to change economic practices to be more in line with global rules and global market liberalisation techniques.”

For now, without any tangible actions set to follow the latest verbal trade war escalation, we don’t expect a formal reaction from China except for the occasional angry op-ed in Global Times. However, should Trump follow through with some tariffs on Chinese imports that could change, although whether even a full-blown trade war between the US and China will have any impact on these melting up markets is increasingly in doubt.

via http://ift.tt/2j4QrA7 Tyler Durden

Well that escalated really quickly…

 

And as stocks go full bitcoin, VIX is surging higher too…

 

Quite a different picture… Dow +350 Points

 

Tax Trumps Nukes…

via http://ift.tt/2nlCN0m Tyler Durden

While Trump's Twitter activity from yesterday continues to drive media and political outrage, especially in the UK, and with the focus of the frenzied coverage being that the president retweeted a far-right U.K. leader's "anti-Muslim videos", there is actually something much more interesting concerning the context to the “Muslim Destroys A Statue Of Virgin Mary” video.

That particular video shared by the president is from 2013 and shows a Free Syrian Army (FSA) commander named Omar Gharba destroying a Virgin Mary statue as the group invaded a Syrian Christian town. In a geopolitical and deeply ironic twist demonstrating the absurdity and contradictions of US foreign policy, the radical Islamist commander was actually supported by the United States at the time as part of the FSA, which the media and US government deemed "moderate". 

So a sitting US president shared a video which reveals a Syrian "rebel" fighter committing war crimes who was part of one of the very groups backed by the CIA as official US policy under the Obama administration. Of course it is likely that Trump himself is not fully aware of this, yet the astounding geopolitical irony in this should not be missed, even as public outrage is reduced to merely discussing "anti-Muslim bigotry" and whether or not Trump is being "presidential".

But as former President Obama used to frequently say, "this is a teachable moment"…

VIDEO: Muslim Destroys a Statue of Virgin Mary! http://pic.twitter.com/qhkrfQrtjV

— Jayda Fransen (@JaydaBF) November 29, 2017

And while multiple media outlets, for example NPR, continue to claim the videos are "unverified" and "have no context" or are of "murky origins" (as the Washington Post wrongly claims), this particular video especially was widely shared and discussed among the world's top Syria analysts and Middle East scholars at the time.

The video was taken in 2013 and shows the Wahhabi cleric and FSA commander smashing the Christian statue in connection with the US-backed group's prior attack on Yakubiya in Idlib province. The book, The Islamic State: Combating The Caliphate Without Borders, authored by counter-terrorism experts Yonah and Dean Alexander, gives his full name as Omar Gharba al-Khojji and like vast numbers of FSA fighters he eventually jointed ISIS (some online sources alternately list his name as Omar Raghba).

US-backed FSA commander Omar Gharba al-Khojji committed atrocities against Syrian Christians.

Yakubiyah was a mostly Christian village principally comprised of Armenian Orthodox and Catholic churches which after being taken over by the FSA was subsequently held by ISIS. The local Christians saw no distinction between the invading FSA and ISIS fighters as it was primarily the US-backed FSA which began massacring Christians and looting churches.

Even the US government funded Voice of America news had this to say based on an interview with a Christian survivor:

Christian refugees described to VOA the execution of a half dozen of their co-religionists in the northwestern village of al-Yakubiye, in Idlib province, by Sunni Muslims aligned with the Western-backed Free Syrian Army. Rahel, a 45-year-old former teacher, said, “Al Nusra didn’t come to our village; the people who came were from villages close by, and they were Free Syrian Army.”

 

…Nearly a third of Syria’s Christians, an estimated 600,000, have fled the country. Before the war, Christians accounted for about 10 percent of Syria’s population of 22 million.

And The Daily Beast also confirmed at the time that "nearly all Christians have fled [Yakubiyah] after half a dozen were executed with their heads chopped off and about 20 more were kidnapped" by the US sponsored FSA.

Furthermore, an October 2013 report in Arabic media confirmed that,

Terrorists belonging to al-Nusra front broke into homes in Yakubiyah in Syria's Idlib province, killed a Chrisitan man and destroyed a Virgin Mary statue. Upon arrival at a house that had the statue of virgin Mary, Wahhabi cleric, Omar Gharba' carried the statue of the Virgin Mary after it was taken over by militants from the "Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant" (ISIL) and broke it by throwing it on the ground. He stated that he and his fellow Wahhabis won't tolerate any form of worship except strict Wahhabism of Saudi Arabia.

 

"God willing, Only God will be worshipped in the land of the Levant," the terrorist who destroyed the statue said, noting that "no other idol will be worshiped after these days . We won't accept but the religion of Allah and the Sunnah of our Prophet Mohammed bin Abdullah."

In 2012 and 2013 Omar Gharba's name appeared somewhat frequently in Western news reports as he was interviewed on a few occasions and presented as a "moderate" rebel, for example by BBC Arabic in 2012.

The below video is one such example of Omar Gharba insisting that he and his fellow FSA militants would be tolerant and respectful of Christians and other religious minorities should they inherit power by toppling the Assad government  – though he was subsequently outed as the destroyer of the Virgin Mary statue, as the edit of the video interview makes clear.

And we know the rest of the story well: the media swallowed and presented such lies of FSA rebel commanders wholesale. But in terms of exposing this false history of a "moderate" uprising and revolution in Syria, Trump's tweet could actually serve to educate the public, just not in a way the media would have us believe.

To Trump's credit, he announced last summer that he shut down the CIA program of covert support to rebel factions in Syria. This came after he viewed a gruesome video which showed "moderate" fighters beheading a child which reportedly helped him make the decision.

via http://ift.tt/2j5gOWL Tyler Durden

The Fed is the Market, Until Someone Bigger Comes Along..

 UPDATE:This editorial was written  3 days ago in reaction to reading the Zerohedge post As Bitcoin Nears $10,000 “Central Banks Kept Up At Night”

by Vince Lanci

“Free markets for free men”- patch worn on the Nymex floor during Iraqi war. 

The reality: We were cheerleaders for Halliburton and naively thought we were on the same team. Money that can’t cross borders freely for its citizenry is not a free market. There was a time before each government sought to secure its tax base through FIAT that money was universal.

That time, when gold was money, is back. But gold isn’t currency. BTC is currency. And their combination, whether in a single  product, or on 2 different fronts, will take the fight  for economic freedom to the Fed doorstep.

Economic freedom is a right corporations enjoy but most citizens do not. And those that do, must pay a tax and withstand a full body cavity search to play. Meanwhile, the west’s corporate controlled government enables its own demise via these uneven playing fields.  No matter, the last US middle class people will pay a 300% income tax to cover government spending we bet.

The Fed Has Forgotten The Market’s Basic Rules 

The axiom “no one is bigger than the market” has held true forever. When the 2009 stock market reinflation began to be understood by professional traders as the Fed becoming the ultimate backstop to the market, that axiom was discarded by many. And that was wrong.

You see, the largest marketmaker, backstop, supporter, is always eventually supplanted by a successor. The king will die. Long live the next king. 

The thing that will eventually dethrone the US govt as market backstop may not come as many see it coming including myself : via a fundamental reckoning or a credit downgrade. No, those things may be resultant of an outside disruptive force on the very nature of centralized power. 

It may come like it does in most markets; when the big fish has a position that leaves it too little room to maneuver ( debt service etc) and then a bigger fish comes along that can take advantage of the next thing. That fish could be Russia, China, or a state controlled capitalist set up that can mandate controls more easily to what it wants. Meanwhile the west’s pesky democracy, or what’s left of it will need to be eradicated. Then they can put down any egalitarian  economic forces.

So in the west, with corporate controlled governments, the king will be dethroned only by true economic grass roots revolution. And that will only happen if they do not put us down before hand. 

Decentralization Kills Power Abuse

Either way the killer concept that will be used is the same thing that has disrupted how we communicate, fight wars, and handle work. That is decentralization as the ultimate disruptor ofcoalesced incumbent power. The playing field will be leveled.

 

That is what BTC and it’s ilk are. They represent the re- democratization of money. This will openup the markets to a bigger, dare we say it, more fair and definitely more like the real invisible hand that free economic markets aspire to. 

The question is how will the incumbent central bankers handle it. It certainly won’t be to our benefit. I write as if the success of a truly free economic society are a given. But they are not.

Control of money is being threatened by a grass roots movement. State Run capitalism will just ban or claim the new tool as its own. China and Russia are already doing oil for gold deals via Blockchain. And why not? They own their banks. The western governments will try to co-opt, restrict, demonize, and finally replace the money of choice with a castrated version that offers convenience at the price of losing that rediscovered financial freedom.

Those on power have no incentive to say “we are wrong, we accede to the public’s desire for an evolutionary government.” Lol.

This will end badly when the Fed gets its shit together. 

When that happens, expect a multi-year smack down attempt as they’ve seek to tame crypto currencies they can’t own. And  when you think it is over, that is when it is just beginning. The tech ain’t going away. 

But if there is one thing that will make enemy governments unite in defense, it will be the true democratic society that can happen. It won’t be martians that bring governments together. It will be it’s own citizens chafing at modern feudalism. 

Sincerely:

Vincent

vlanci@echobay.com

About the Author: Vince Lanci has 27 years’ experience trading Commodity Derivatives. Retired from active trading in 2008, Vince now manages personal investments through his Echobay entity. He advises natural resource firms on market risk. He pioneered and executed the Nat Gas EOO arbitrage trade of 2006 to 2008, netting over $90MM for a NYC hedge fund before retiring. Over the years, his expertise and testimony have been requested in energy, precious metals, and derivative fraud cases. Lanci is known for his passion in identifying unfairness in market structure and uneven playing fields. He is a frequent contributor to Zerohedge and Marketslant on such topics. Vince contributes to Bloomberg and Reuters finance articles as well. He continues to lead the Soren K. Group of writers on Marketslant.

 

 

***Dear Readers: “Day job” obligations are making it difficult to expend resources toward writing original pieces consistently. We do not have a Soren K. site but wish to continue writing. To do so we will need to incur expenses. Marketslant is kind to post our work and the work of others here. We hope to be setting up a Soren K. Group Patreon page in the next weeks to continue giving our original work, as well as proprietary research for Precious Metals traders. Anything offered will be greatly appreciated. We  also hope to do the following for readers here depending on interest soon thereafter

1. weekly settlement price competition for token prizes – Silver Eagles etc.
2. opportunity to guest post under SKG and on zerohedge where we write and  post under Vince Lanci’s Blog
3. Ability to  place  your own editorials on Kitco if they accept as relevant to the market. 

Finally we are in the process of raising capital for a fund and are speaking to seeders in that pursuit. Between our SKG members we have 65 years trading experience in PM, Energy, and Equities. Among our group are algo writers, analysts, $BB Fund partners, lawyers, Wall Street bank executives, and other complementary minds. Patron readers would see trades we execute when up and running as investors permit.

If you have an opinion, interest or wish to write please contact us at Sorenk@marketslant.com***

 

via http://ift.tt/2BnRNg8 Vince Lanci

Following the backing of Sen. John McCain on the GOP tax reform bill, markets have surged to new all time highs as tax-sensitive banks lead the way, with Bloomberg reporting that odds for the tax bill's passage may increase to "near-certainty" if the Senate can finish its version in the days ahead, citing Evercore ISI.  And speaking of banks, the KBW bank index is up over 1.3% to the highest since Oct. 2007, outpacing the S&P 500’s 0.7 percent gain. This is just more of the same: since Trump's election, banks have outperformed dramatically with the BKX up 40% vs S&P 500 +24%; top performers include SIVB (+86%), BAC (+68%); Citigroup (+52%); JPMorgan (+51%).

So at least according to bank stocks – and the market – tax reform appears to be a done deal. This is confirmed by online betting market PredictIt, where odds for a tax deal by the end of 2017 have jumped to 76%, up from 40% three days ago.

 

But do Wall Street analysts agree? As the following summary from Bloomberg shows, opinions range from Evercore's 75% odds of a deal getting done by Q1 at the latest, with some such as Horizon Investments suggesting corporate tax rate may have to settle at 22% (especially if Trump "blows a gasket"), to pessimists such as Bloomberg Andrew Silverman stating that "the Senate will have tough time passing first stab at ax-overhaul, contrary to equity markets’ expectations for successful reform, as many have doubts about the bill and margin for failure is 2 votes."

Here is a full run down of some analyst views on the state of tax reform, courtesy of Bloomberg.

EVERCORE ISI (Terry Haines)

• Taxes on track for Senate approval in next few days; keeps 75% odds tax legislation happens by early 1Q at the latest; odds may increase to near-certainty if the Senate can finish its version of the bill by the end of this week or early next week
• Sees govt shutdown as very unlikely, with odds at most 10%
• Says don’t be distracted by posturing this week on both sides of the aisle; no one in Washington wants a shutdown, full-year spending deal that keeps govt spending stable, but with small increases for defense and domestic spending has been in negotiations for weeks

HORIZON INVESTMENTS (Greg Valliere)

• The one wild card that could disrupt tax reform process is "the increasingly erratic" President Trump, whose tweets this week (Access Hollywood, Obama’s birthplace, fight with U.K. PM May) have alarmed even his supporters; raises issue as Trump "could blow a gasket" if tax bill fails to give him what he wants for business, corporate rate may have to settle at about 22%
• Calls Corker trigger "a terrible idea"; asks whether tax hikes would be welcome if there’s a recession in next few years, or geopolitical issue; notes corporations may find it difficult to make long-term plans if their lower taxes are threatened by Corker amendment

COMPASS POINT (Isaac Boltansky)

• Still believes Senate will clear its tax package this week
• Then, House could consider the measure, pass it in early December, or there may be conference cmte that may bleed into 2018
• Sees conference as likelier path; keeps 75% odds of package being enacted regardless of procedural road ahead

COWEN (Chris Krueger)

• Congressional GOP has seemingly made calculation that "passing nothing on taxes is worse than passing something" 
• Notes "dueling" bills are receiving waves of negative news coverage across Trump and Clinton state papers
• Two questions remain: Tax trigger mechanism, how to pay for "new policy candy" to secure 50 votes

BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE (Andrew Silverman)

• Senate will have tough time passing first stab at ax-overhaul, contrary to equity markets’ expectations for successful reform, as many have doubts about the bill and margin for failure is 2 votes
• Too many uncertainties remain to predict a quick passage, and senators won’t know what they’re voting on until after "vote-a-rama," when the bill is rapidly amended on the floor
• Sees debate stretching into 2018

Source: Bloomberg

via http://ift.tt/2AsJG54 Tyler Durden

The term carpetbagger originally referred to post-Civil War Northerners who
moved to the South during reconstruction for either economic gain, political
gain, or both. They frequently arrived with hastily sewn suitcases made of
carpet remnants, hence the moniker “carpetbaggers.” Carpetbagging has
subsequently also become a popular description for non-native politicians who
for expediency and opportunity establish political roots in some newfound
territory. (Think: The Bush family in Texas or Hillary Clinton in New York.)
Carpetbagging has now evolved to describe virtually any unscrupulous, or
opportunistic outsider seeking financial gain. In the context of this last
definition there has never been a time when carpetbagging has experienced such a
renaissance as it has in modern finance. It’s the golden era of carpetbagging.
You could say, in fact,
we are living in a veritable carpetbagger’s paradise.

They Should have called it “Carpetbanking”

Of course, by definition
all
bankers are in the business of carpetbagging. The very nature of owning the
pieces of paper we exchange for real goods and services means there’s a constant
source of outside profiteering, at the expense of local people in useful
society. You can’t buy, sell, lease, or conduct a single transaction without a
carpetbanker somewhere getting his cut. Maybe though in the case of bankers we
need to update the term carpetbagger to “Guccibagger.” Unscrupulous outsiders
plying their trade elsewhere has been a Fed tradition since 1913.
We’re no longer in Bedford Falls, Mr. Bailey. Mr. Potter’s heirs are alive, and
prospering all over the planet.

National Pastime

Carpetbagging has indeed become so fashionable as to be a National pastime.
Fully aided and abetted by the (not) Federal (and not) Reserve, with full
cooperation from the Federal government it has morphed to new dimensions. Things
like ZIRP, stock market bubbles, housing bubbles, and everything bubblelicious
in between are all fully sanctioned events. By “sanctioned” I mean, heavily
subsidized; ultimately by YOU, dear taxpayer. Carpetbaggers thrive on OPM and
implicit guarantees of success. Why reinvent the con when you can merely pack up
your magic carpetbag and climb on the carpetbagging hypersonic loop? All aboard!

The (Dis)information Super Highway

The carpetbagging highway is in fact a 10-lane super interstate stretching all
the way from Silicon Valley to Washington DC. Buy Tesla? Of course, that Musk
chap is working on a hyper-speed of light gismo which will transport you to Mars
in the morning and still have you back by 8 PM to watch
American Idol.
With that in mind how can TSLA stock not hit $5,000? Amazon? It’s a foregone
conclusion that the Bezos machine will eventually sell

everything

to
everybody.
He’s not only going to sell everything to everybody, he’s going to be able to
read your mind and deliver it while you are still thinking of it! Gone are the
days of even having to bother with those pesky keystrokes. Yessirree, in the
land of Amazon there will be no exertion, no jobs, and no profits, yet somehow,
it’s all going to work out. Who cares about social chaos and starvation when you
can load the boat on AMZN
now
and get rich! Living in a carpetbagger’s paradise is like watching perpetual
Brady Bunch reruns. Everything works out, and it always ends with a happy song.

Vegas Hotel, or a Tree in Southern Greece?

Gold and silver owners know full well the carpetbagging nature of derivatives,
and how they are used to suppress and manipulate the underlying product. You in
fact don’t need to know a damn thing about mining, precious metals, or even
what
gold and silver are, to profit handsomely from them. Does gold come from the
ground, or does it grow on trees in southern Greece and Italy? Isn’t a golden
nugget some hotel in Vegas where Elvis hung out? Who cares, why bother, just
know that you will make money playing the cartel game. Short gold on 1% rallies,
NFP Fridays, option expirations, and other key no-no times and you will come out
like a Northern carpetbagger in 1868 Biloxi. The name of the game is take what
they give you, and it’s obvious TPTB are fully quiescent in facilitating paper
profits derived from suppressing precious metals, and in doing so ruin an entire
industry.

Hard Times (At least for Now)

These are no doubt hard times for precious metal investors. The discouragement
is understandable, the unfairness of it all hard to swallow. The Bitcoin, Tesla,
and FAANG carpetbaggers have been partying like it’s 1999, a most recent
investing mania era, in addition to the Prince song. Carpetbaggers rarely see
the violent upper cuts that hit them out of nowhere. Like a few Northerners who
got tossed out on their ear into a muddy street in the South it wouldn’t take
much to turn this carpetbagger’s paradise into a 1-way muddy street to hell.
Tesla, Amazon, and other Uber-bubbly delights can become the latest incarnation
of 1990’s dot.com stocks, which never made money and fell back their intrinsic
values: zero, or near-zero. Pack your (non-carpet) bags, we’re traveling back to
the world of real
money;
which is always gold and silver. It’s been a long journey from 2011. The return
trip should be far more pleasant, even if it isn’t on a Mars hyper-light-speed
gismo.

James McShirley
November 30, 2017

via http://ift.tt/2AfTrD8 lemetropole

originally posted by the Soren K. Group on marketslant.com

Moor Report Summary:

If the title confuses you, do not be fooled. There is a short term outlook, that can change from day to day, an intermediate outlook that can change week to week, and a long term one. This changes month to month And they are not contradictory.

• Short Term –  refers to daily outlooks here. It is choppy with repeated failures to pierce $1300. This calls for trading counter trend with a downward bias intraday Sell rallies, buy dips…. in that order.
• Intermediate Term– We do not like trading week to week and have no feel for this time frame. To us, if the short term makes money, then take it home and see if it continues intermediate term.
• Long Term– Buy it, buy it again, and keep buying it unleveraged with money you do not need for current cash flow or expenses; and hold it for 12 to 18 months with a target of $1700 plus. The only thing to  consider is if you buy more on any dip above $1245 (Fund  Finder level) then $1229 (Moor Level) and $1192, (from VBS). Then decide if you add on a break  above $1338. The macro is lined up. We seek the micro to start the ball rolling to add or pare positions.

Slow Rally Kills Shorts

We are in a limbo area right now, where a short term bull leg is triggered with a decisive penetration above $1294.50. And any settlement below $1292.20 is a short term bear leg. Accumulators buy while shorters seek weakness to push lower. Physical  accumulators  do not chase. It is the shorts who will ignite this if it is to accelerate  to the upside. We’d  prefer a slow melt up to $1338 so no hot money buys, and shorts can delude themselves

Michael’s analysis echoes what we see longer  term. Specifically, in 9-12 months he sees an upward  move bringing us to $1400 minimum,  and over $1800 maximum. This all happens as long as the market withstands any pressure down to $1229.

Our own  analysis remains unviolated adn fully intact. Funds are buying dips above the  12 month moving average, Volatility in the short term is starting to percolate, and long term volatility is flatlining. The low long term volatility implies the next move in Gold is not to be faded if  accompanied by  newly expanding long term volatility.

Simply put:

1. SKG Fund Finder: Patient Long above the 12 month MA with a sell stop on a  monthly settlement below $1245
2. Moor Analytics: Traditional Analysis says a long bias is in order with the ability to swing trade in either direction as described in the levels below
3. Echobay’s VBS Macro: Explosive volatility on a move above $1338 or below $1192 in either direction. implying a $200 move in either direction if triggered

SKG Fund Finder – the 12 month MA said to buy in July/August on a settlement above the yellow line. Our refinement says now is when to buy based on line slope and risk /reward

?

 

Moor Analytics Weekly

GC (G)

On a short-term basis:

I cautioned that an area of possible exhaustion for the move up from 12628 came in at 13077-81.
We rejected $43.9 from this, but this is now on hold. The trade above 12896 (-1 tic (10 cents) per/hour) put us above a small
formation that projects this upward $5.5 minimum, $14.5 (+) maximum. We have seen $9.4 of this so far. This will come in at
12881 (-1 tic (10 cents) per/hour starting at 6:00pm). If we break back below, look for profit taking to come in. The trade
above 12925 brought in $6.5 of the strength warned about above before rolling over. Decent trade below 12792 (+.3 of a tic
(3 cents) per/hour starting at 6:00pm) will project this downward $20 minimum, $24 (+) maximum; but if we break below here
decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering to come in. A maintained gap lower tomorrow will leave a
short term bearish reversal intact above that will warn of decent pressure, likely for days. Trade above 12990 is a sign of
renewed strength.

On a macro basis:

We broke above a well-formed macro line in the week of 8/7 that came in at 12629. The break above here
projects this upward $174 minimum, $493 (+) maximum—the maximum to be attained likely within 9-12 months. This line
comes in at 12294 this week, and rolls into (G). This is off hold, or you could wait for a decent break above the 12947-54 area
mentioned below for added confirmation. Within that we rallied up to a macro resistance line on 9/11 at 13522 that I said we
are looking for a multi-week smackdown from– we were seeing some of this as we have come off $89.4, but this is on hold.
We left a medium term bearish reversal intact above on 9/18 that also warned of continued pressure in the days/weeks ahead.
We have seen $48 so far. This too is on hold. Within the bearishness I noted that a possible area of exhaustion for this move
down from 13624 comes in at 12732-644. We basically held this, but with a $1.6 violation, and rallied to 13084 before rolling
over and rejecting from it again. Decent trade below 12682 will project this downward $31 minimum, $97 (+) maximum based
off a well-formed formation. Decent trade above 12950 will project this upward $23 minimum, $47 (+) maximum based off an
‘ok formed’ formation; but if we break above here decently and back below decently, look for decent profit taking to come in.

Email Michael for subscription info : Michael Moor

VBS MACRO

Volatility Cycles more cleanly than price. it could stay low for months, but is far less likely to give false  signals. 

?

In Gold and Silver, we use 1.5 STD on BBands and relationships not shown here between historical and implied that corroborate or negate a signal- SK

Good Luck

Dear Readers:

“Day job” obligations are making it difficult to expend resources toward writing original pieces consistently. We do not have a Soren K. site but wish to continue writing. To do so we will need to incur expenses. Marketslant is kind to post our work and the work of others here. We hope to be setting up a Soren K. Group Patreon page in the next weeks to continue giving our original work, as well as proprietary research for Precious Metals traders. Anytng offered will be greatly appreciated. 

We  also hope to do the following for readers

1. weekly settlement price competition for token prizes – Silver Eagles etc.
2. opportunity to guest post under SKG and on zerohedge where we write and  post under Vince Lanci’s Blog
3. Ability to  place  your own editorials on Kitco if they accept as relevant to the market. 

Finally we are in the process of raising capital for a fund and are speaking to seeders in that pursuit. Between our SKG members we have  65 years trading experience in PM, Energy, and Equities. Among our group are algo writers, analysts, $BB Fund partners, lawyers, Wall Street bank executives, and other complementary minds. Trade ideas we execute when up and running will be shared with site Patrons as investors permit. 

If you have an opinion, interest or wish to write please contact us at

Sorenk@marketslant.com

via http://ift.tt/2AiIRLB Vince Lanci

Via The Daily Bell

Let’s talk about power. The way I see it, there are basically two types of power, political and economic. You can wield power through the government, or through your giant bank account.

In the crony world of corporate-political America, the lines are blurry. These days most people gain their political or economic power by mixing the two. But you can still tease apart whether someone’s power derives mostly from political or economic sources.

And there are all these people with either type of power who secretly behind closed doors act completely inappropriately when it comes to sexual advances.

(There’s more to the story about why the media is just now reporting these things. Read my take on the media’s plan for using sexual assault accusations as a weapon. But for our current discussion, suffice to say, most of these guys are major creeps exploiting their positions.)

So what happens to the people in each power-house when they are caught, with credible evidence?

The economically powerful in the private sector get fired. They have sponsors pulled, they have projects canceled. The power they used to take advantage sexually is seriously diminished. Even if it doesn’t cost them outright, it costs them in network connections. It costs them in reputation, and reputation is a key component of economic power.

The latest to be fired is Matt Lauer. Weinstein and Spacey lost projects and gave up lucrative deals. Mark Halperin and Charlie Rose were fired. Louie C.K. lost a whole bunch of shows and specials.

And the politically powerful are not affected. Al Franken has not resigned. John Conyers has not resigned. Some people even think Trump is getting off easy, although his controversy is more about words than actions. Bill Clinton is lucky he is from a different era. Roy Moore will become a Senator if a slim majority of Alabama voters approve.

The L.A. Times is taking politicians to task on the difference.

Congress also has more than a whiff of entitlement, accustomed to operating by its own rules while other organizations rush to protect themselves from liability.

Beyond that, some lawmakers argue that voters, not colleagues, should serve as the ultimate judges of those under scrutiny.

When Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) was asked Wednesday about the difference between quick actions taken against non-politicians and lagging moves against members of Congress like Rep. John Conyers Jr. of Michigan, he blurted out one line:

“Who elected them?” he said, referring to the private-sector figures.

This highlights the problem with holding government accountable. This shows how much easier it is to hold the private sector accountable. When people and organizations have to worry about their wallets, they respond.

The market is very effective at regulating behavior. We, the people, have the power hit the economically powerful where it hurts: their wallets.

We have no such power with politicians. In fact, the taxpayers fund their settlements! The government doesn’t stand to lose “business” no matter what its members do. They will still be funded by tax dollars, we have no choice.

And to fire them, we need to wait until the next election cycle. But even then, the politicians at fault might not be in your district. Even if they are, you need a majority to hold them accountable.

Public pressure on politicians does nothing to curtail their power unless it causes them to lose an election. But as consumers, we can immediately affect the power of people in the private sector. They don’t need a slim majority to maintain power, they need a broad customer base excited to hand over their dollars.

The private sector has built-in incentives to punish people who fall into disfavor with customers.

Political power is a creepy club of factions and games. When someone in the private sector is accused of sexual misconduct, their peers quickly disown them. They are banished, exiled, shunned, and may God have mercy on their souls.

But politicians know that their power is not subject to the same constraints as economic power.

Democrats have remained coy about whether or not Franken and Conyers should resign. Some Republicans have called for Roy Moore to drop out of the Alabama Senate race. But President Trump remains supportive. Marco Rubio says it is a “difficult situation.”

Because on the one hand, as a Republican, you want the Republican Party to keep the seat. On the other hand, I personally find the accusations against him to be credible, and I don’t think he has done or said anything in the last month that has helped himself or in any way made me feel better about it,” Rubio said. “But he’s staying in the race, the people of Alabama will have their vote and we’ll move on from there.”

So that is that, colleagues wash their hands of the situation. Let the voters decide their fate. Because that always works so well…

Power Goes to Their Head

I think power does basically the same thing to people whether it is economic or political power.

And if these people are willing to put their careers on the line for a cheap sexual thrill, imagine what else they are capable of.

I don’t know if this says something about human nature, our culture, or men in general. But the lesson I get out of it all is that power imbalances cause people to do crazy things. How easy it is for power to go to someone’s head.

Behavior that everyone knows is completely inappropriate is common among people who feel above others.

Those with economic power learn from their fall from grace. Congress’ solution? They will implement sexual harassment training for politicians and staff, and call it a day.

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