With OPEC delegates sequestered in a Vienna conference room, as they negotiate the proposed 6-9 month production cut extension, at least one appears to be leaking the decision process to media outlets, because moments ago Bloomberg reported that OPEC ministers have agreed to extend their production cuts until the end of 2018 – agreeing with the Saudi-proposed 9 month extension – and discussions have now moved on to the mechanism that will be used to review the agreement in the middle of the year.

• OPEC AGREES TO EXTEND OIL SUPPLY CUTS TO END OF 2018: DELEGATE
• OPEC TALKS MOVED ON TO DETAILS OF MID-YEAR REVIEW: DELEGATE

These were some of the earlier headlines heading into the “announcement”:

• IRAQ SAYS RUSSIA JOINING IN EXTENDING OUTPUT CUTS TO END OF ’18
• SAUDI MIN: WE WILL REVIEW OUR EFFORTS IN JUNE NEXT YEAR
• SAUDI MIN: OPEC+ MUST DO MORE BECAUSE OVERHANG REMAINS
• AL-FALIH: IN 2Q AND 3Q, WE’LL SEE HEALTHY INVENTORY DRAWDOWNS
• IRAQ COMMITTED TO LEVEL OF OPEC CUTS
• U.A.E.: OPEC LOOKING FOR WIDER GROUP OF COUNTRIES TO JOIN CUTS
• IRAN SAYS NO DISCUSSION TO RAISE CUTS VOLUME BEYOND 1.8M B/D

While oil prices had traded near session highs ahead of the leaked announcement, they have failed to spike on the news and in fact Brent is back under $64, suggesting that, as Goldman predicted, a favorable outcome had been priced in, and now the details of the agreement will determine which way oil moves next.

As Citi wrote moments before the report, “it looks like a 6-9 month extension is the most common expectation amongst OPEC members, though the inclusion of caveats is looking increasingly likely. Comments from Saudi’s Al-Falih suggesting that they expect to see healthy inventory drawdowns in 2Q’18 and 3Q’18 hint that the Kingdom may not be keen to commit to a firm extension beyond that, instead perhaps looking to keep their optionality open.”

Bloomberg also reported the Russian Energy Minister saying that specific details of the cuts will be discussed today along with “issue of gradual recovery” (details of which could swing the market today). There is also chatter around Nigeria’s current production levels – Nigeria (along with Libya) is currently exempt from the cuts, but it would be an interesting development if these countries joined the deal (though no further comments on this aspect as yet).

via http://ift.tt/2zRsZAW Tyler Durden

Despite a Wednesday dive in high-flying U.S. tech stocks on worries their boom may have peaked following a MS downgrade, which presured Asian stocks leading to a slide in Hong Kong and South Korean share, on Thursday morning the dip buyers have emerged and both European stocks and US equity futures are once again solidly in the green as yesterday’s tech selloff is quickly forgotten. Confirming that algos have moved on, US stock-index futures climbed briskly (ES +0.3%), and Dow futures were above 24,000 with Europe green across the board as signs of progress on the tax reform plan led some investors to shift to positions that are seen benefiting from lower corporate tax.

Following a lackluster Wednesday session, and some mixed results in Asia, Europe’s Stoxx 600 has advancds to session’s high, up 0.6%, as defensive sectors including telecommunications, utilities and real estate outperform more cyclical sectors like construction, financial services and technology, with the FTSE 100 once again lagging (-0.3%) as the firmer GBP continues to hamper the index. Despite opening relatively flat, European bourses have drifted higher amid the declines seen in EUR with little else in the way of fresh fundamental catalysts to guide price action. All sectors trade in positive territory with the exception of energy names in the wake of yesterday’s sell-off in oil prices.

Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC 40 both inched up for a third day, though London’s FTSE was back in the red as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations pushed the pound higher again.

Earlier, Hong Kong and South Korean-listed shares tumbled, while Japanese stocks gained. Asia stock markets were mostly negative as the tech-sell off on Wall St. dampened sentiment in the region and overshadowed better than expected Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was pressured by its largest weighted Financial sector after the announcement of a royal commission inquiry into the industry, while Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) recovered from opening losses as JPY weakness provided support. Elsewhere, KOSPI (-1.5%) weakened as the BoK delivered a widely anticipated 25bps rate hike and Chinese markets were also subdued with the Hang Seng (-1.5%) reeling on tech weakness, although losses in the Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) were somewhat stemmed by encouraging Chinese Official PMI data. 

In global FX and macro, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was higher a fourth day, its longest winning run since August, before key U.S. data releases including personal income, spending, deflator, initial claims, and Chicago PMI; the pound held on to Asia session gains as Brexit talks seemed on track to soon enter phase 2, the hardest part of the negotiations. As noted earlier, the euro reversed gains after inflation in the currency bloc missed estimates, while the 10-year bund yield fell from a two-week high; equities were mixed amid profit taking in EMFX and month-end flows in G-10 currencies. Some other key FX observations, from Bloomberg:

• The pound was the only G-10 currency to strengthen against the dollar on Thursday after news that Ireland and the U.K. were close to a border deal
• EUR/USD set a fresh session low after annual euro-zone flash CPI rose 1.5% in November versus an estimated 1.6% rise
• Kiwi dropped after business confidence fell to the lowest level since 2009
• The yen fell to a one-week low on the back of a rally in Japanese stocks and as better-than- expected U.S. economic data sapped haven demand
• Norway’s krone slid to a nine-year low against the euro, with low liquidity exaggerating the move, after retail sales unexpectedly contracted 0.2% m/m in October versus an estimated 0.7% rise

Weighing on tech were concerns, sparked by a Morgan Stanley report
earlier this week, that the “super-cycle” in memory chip demand looks
likely to peak soon. Yesterday, shares of Amazon.com, Apple, Alphabet
and Facebook fell between 2 percent and 4 percent. Among the year’s
other high fliers, Netflix slid 5.5 percent while Asia’s bellwether
Samsung slumped 4.3 percent to two-month lows, also on some Morgan
Stanley skepticism.

“I‘m not sure one would say it’s a bubble (in tech stocks),” said Andrew Milligan, head of investment strategy at Standard Life. “By and large the companies are generating either good profits or the potential for good profit growth”. But “Tech is a sector unto itself… it’s utterly a view about barriers to entry.”

Still, the Nasdaq index remains up 26.8% so far this year, roughly 7% points above gains in the MSCI world index. “It is true that if you look at the world’s semiconductor sales on chart, their year-on-year growth appears to be peaking out,” said Hiroshi Watanabe, an economist at Sony Financial Holdings. “But if you look at what’s driving demand, it’s not just smart phones and actually a lot of things.”

In the US, Senate Republicans voted 52-48 to begin debate on their sweeping tax-overhaul bill, touching off a process that could produce an up-or-down vote before the end of this week. Outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday the central bank would welcome and support a faster expansion of the economy stemming from changes in the tax code, provided it was the right kind of growth. Other notable US events overnight:

• White House adviser Kushner said to have met with Special Counsel Mueller’s team for discussions regarding former National Security Adviser Flynn.
• Marvin Goodfriend was nominated for the Fed Board of Governors position.

Other changes are afoot: JPM Asset Management global head of rates David Tan predicted on Thursday that there will be some 1,000 rate hikes globally over the next decade. “The current period of economic expansion has therefore been extraordinarily long, almost 10 years and counting, but we know that the days of super low global central bank rates are in the process of coming to an end,” he said.

Meanwhile, interest rates in Germany rose to their highest in just over two weeks, while 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield climbed too, reaching 2.389% to near this month’s high of 2.414%.

There was no immediate market response after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Carnegie Mellon University professor Marvin Goodfriend, viewed as a policy hawk, to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Oil meanwhile moved cautiously ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna later in the day, with members set to debate an extension of the group’s supply-cut agreement. While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and key non-member Russia look set to prolong oil supply cuts until the end of 2018, they have signaled that they may review the deal when they meet again in June if the market overheats.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,633
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 389.17
• MSCI Asia Pac down 1.1% to 170.05
• MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan down 1.6% to 553.31
• Nikkei up 0.6% to 22,724.96
• Topix up 0.3% to 1,792.08
• Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 29,177.35
• Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,317.19
• Sensex down 1.1% to 33,245.95
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,969.89
• Kospi down 1.5% to 2,476.37
• German 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.396%
• Euro down 0.1% to $1.1835
• Brent Futures up 1.5% to $64.08/bbl
• Italian 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 1.527%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.48%
• Brent Futures up 1.5% to $64.08/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,281.27
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 93.36

Top Overnight News

• U.S. Senate begins a marathon debate on the Republican tax bill after an intensive bargaining phase. Lawmakers reached a deal on pass-through business and were still discussing adding a trigger to include up to $350b in automatic hikes if revenues were not met.
• The pound advanced after news the U.K. and the EU are working against the clock to reach a compromise on the Irish border that will allow a breakthrough in Brexit talks at a key meeting next week
• German unemployment declined for a fifth month as Europe’s largest economy continues to boom. Business confidence is at the highest level since the country’s reunification with the hiring spree driven by companies seeking to expand their ranks to keep up with a growing backlog of work
• Marvin Goodfriend, a widely respected monetary economist and sometime critic of the Federal Reserve under Chair Yellen, was nominated by President Trump to be a governor at the U.S. central bank, the White House announced on Wednesday
• The International Monetary Fund is projecting the volume of trade in goods and services will have climbed 4.2 percent over the year, up from 2.4 percent in 2016. That would be the first time trade has outpaced output growth since 2014 and goes against the view earlier this year that 2017 would be the year of trade wars
• The U.S. is rejecting China’s claim of market-economy status, saying the country doesn’t deserve to be treated as such in anti-dumping investigations because the state continues to play a pervasive role in the economy. The stance will be made clear in a document that will be published Thursday.
• The U.K. and the European Union are moving to a compromise on the Irish border which will allow Brexit talks to move on to trade next week. All parties want to avoid a hard border, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May told reporters.

Asia stock markets were mixed as the tech-sell off on Wall St. dampened sentiment in the region and overshadowed better than expected Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was pressured by its largest weighted Financial sector after the announcement of a royal commission inquiry into the industry, while Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) recovered from opening losses as JPY weakness provided support. Elsewhere, KOSPI (-1.5%) weakened as the BoK delivered a widely anticipated 25bps rate hike and Chinese markets were also subdued with the Hang Seng (-1.5%) reeling on tech weakness, although losses in the Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) were somewhat stemmed by encouraging Chinese Official PMI data. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid spill-over selling from their US counterparts and as a mixed 2yr auction failed to inspire demand. Chinese Official Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 51.8 vs. Exp. 51.4 (Prev. 51.6). Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 54.8 (Prev. 54.3) PBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 120bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos to total a net neutral operation for a 4th consecutive day once maturing repos are accounted for. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6034 (Prev. 6.6011) BoK 7-Day Repo Rate (Nov) 1.50% vs. Exp. 1.50% (Prev. 1.25%). BoK Governor Lee said the rate decision was not unanimous as board member Cho dissented, while he added that uncertainties for the economy are higher than ever and that additional adjustment depends on growth and inflation.

Top Asian News

• BOJ Cuts Buying Range for Debt Due Up to 1 Year in December Plan
• BOJ Reflationist Harada Sees No Problem in Continuing Stimulus
• China Bond Selloff Abates as 10-Year Yield Falls Most Since June
• China Factory Gauge Unexpectedly Rises as Global Demand Firms Up
• Hong Kong Regulator Says Agreement Reached on Investor ID Plan
• BOJ Cuts Buying Range for Debt Due in Up to One Year in December

European equities trade higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%) with the FTSE 100 once again lagging (-0.3%) as the firmer GBP continues to hamper the index. Despite opening relatively flat, European bourses have drifted higher amid the declines seen in EUR with little else in the way of fresh fundamental catalysts to guide price action. All sectors trade in positive territory with the exception of energy names in the wake of yesterday’s sell-off in oil prices. A rather timely rebound in the 10 year German benchmark just ahead of the Eurozone inflation data, as the slightly softer than forecast headline measure inspired more upside to a fresh 162.75 high for the Eurex session (+27 ticks vs -24 ticks at the other extreme). Relatively dovish, albeit typical comments from ECB’s Praet may also have impacted and countering speculation about a leak or pre-release whisper, USTs squeezed higher around the same time. Whatever the catalyst or inspiration,  the price recovery to intraday peak represents a 50% retrace of Wednesday’s move, to the precise tick. Short term longs will now be eyeing 162.96 ahead of 163.10.

Top European News

• Hong Kong Stocks Pare Monthly Gain as Technology Selloff Spreads
• BOE’s Carney Hints at Scrapping Banker Bonus Cap After Brexit
• Turkey Cenbank May Raise LLW Rate Without MPC Meeting: Ertem
• IPT: Bunzl Finance Expected GBP300m 7.5Y UKT +135 Area
• IPT: TSB Bank GBP Bmark 5Y Covered 3mL +30 Area

In FX markets, GBP is still riding high on expectations that the UK and EU are getting closer to striking an agreement on the key issues that need to be settled before a Brexit transition and trade talks can begin. JPY softer again on broadly upbeat risk sentiment (amidst above forecast Chinese PMIs, healthy Fed Beige Book and commentary), with USD/JPY up near 112.50 and the next chart resistance level at 112.70. EUR is holding above key tech support vs the USD at 1.1813 again, but struggling to maintain bullish momentum given the ongoing Greenback recovery. Expiry interest close by at 1.1840-45 (2.8 bln). In terms of Eurozone inflation, headline Y/Y printed at 1.5% for Nov vs. Exp. 1.6% with ex-food and energy firmer at 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.0%. Eurozone Inflation, Flash YY (Nov) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 1.4%); Eurozone Inflation ex-food, energy, tobacco (Nov P) Y/Y 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.9%); Eurozone Inflation Ex Food & Enr Flash (Nov) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.1%).

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures initially traded with little in the way of the firm direction after yesterday’s modest recovery from the initial sell-off, however, heading into US trade have been met with a bid. In terms of the latest OPEC rhetoric, energy ministers all appear to be on the same page with their desire for a 9-month extension to the existing deal (subject to a review in June). The Kuwaiti oil minister also added that production caps have been confirmed for Libya and Nigeria at around 1mln bpd and 1.8mln bpd respectively. In metals markets, spot gold has drifted lower throughout the session, briefly breaking below USD 1280/oz to the downside where some contacts had reported stops. Elsewhere, Copper was subdued overnight alongside the broad risk averse tone triggered by the US tech sell-off.

Looking at the day ahead, in the US the big focus will be on October personal income, spending and PCE data all due out at 8.30am ET. Also due is the November Chicago PMI and the latest weekly initial jobless claims data. The big focus away from the data will be a possible Senate vote on tax reform while central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Mersch and Praet, Fed’s Kaplan and BoE’s Sharp. The OPEC meeting in Vienna is also worth keeping a close eye on given that the meeting should include a discussion around extending production cuts.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 239,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.9m
• 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%; Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 1.0%
  • PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%;  PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.6%
  • PCE Core MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; PCE Core YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.3%
• 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 63, prior 66.2
• 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51.7
• 12:30pm: Fed’s Quarles Speaks on Payments Systems in Cleveland
• 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Dallas

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It might be the last day of November but it still feels like we have some way to go before markets finally ease their feet off the pedals for the holiday season. We’re at the business end of the week now and one event which is waiting in the wings is the Senate vote on tax reform. It’s unclear if we’ll get a vote today or even this week with the latest update being that the Senate approved a motion to proceed on party lines yesterday, clearing a path for a vote on the bill. The vote to approve followed more debate yesterday with GOP senators negotiating compromises with their leaders. One of those was a more generous tax break for pass-through business. Politico reported that there are still a number of issues to resolve so keep an eye on how things progress today.

Away from politics it’s also worth watching some of the data due out today and especially the various inflation readings. This morning we’ll receive the November CPI report for the Euro area where the consensus expect a small pickup in the core to +1.0% yoy from +0.9%. Across the pond this afternoon we’ll then get the October personal income and spending data in the US which will also provide the latest reading for the Fed’s preferred inflation metric – the core PCE deflator. Our US economists and the market expect a +0.2% mom reading which if it holds would push the annual figure up one-tenth to +1.4% yoy. We talked extensively about inflation in our outlook and how the risks are to upside in the second half of next year especially, so this data is becoming more and more significant in our view as we look ahead to 2018.

Back to the present now where the biggest action in markets over the last 24 hours has been that in the tech sector. The Nasdaq closed -1.27% last night, although did pare heavier losses intraday, for its biggest one day decline since August. An index tracking FANG stocks fell -3.72% with an impressive $62bn wiped from the four stocks’ combined market value. That’s pretty much the equivalent of the GDP of Uzbekistan. In contrast, the S&P 500 (-0.04%) finished pretty much flat while the Dow closed +0.44%. In Europe the Stoxx 600 also closed +0.24%. So it was very much a tech only story with much of the commentary pointing towards sector rotation as the reason for the selloff ahead of US tax reform which is seen as doing little to benefit the sector given the already low effective tax rates. In fairness, the Nasdaq move looks like an afterthought compared to the 21.21% high-to-low range for Bitcoin yesterday. After nearly touching $11,500 intraday, in the space of five and a half hours the cryptocurrency tumbled all the way to $9,000, before then rallying back above $10,000 by the close to end the day more or less unchanged. For some context, while the  intraday range in percentage terms was ‘only’ the fifth biggest this year, the range in US $ terms ($2,424) is actually the same as where the cryptocurrency traded back in July. Mind boggling.

Elsewhere, bond markets didn’t offer much in the way of protection yesterday with yields sharply higher across the globe. 10y Treasuries finished +6.1bps higher last night with a combination of a Gilt led selloff following the Brexit  developments late on Tuesday (more on that below), tax reform talk and Yellen’s testimony all seemingly playing a part.

This morning in Asia it’s more of the same with weakness across tech names generally weighing on sentiment. The Hang Seng (-1.28%) has been the biggest mover with tech names down -2.47%, while the Kospi (-0.70%), ASX (-0.57%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.25%) are also in the red. The Nikkei is back to flat following a similarly weak start while US equity index futures are mixed. It’s worth noting that there doesn’t appear to be any follow on to President Trump’s tweet yesterday when he warned of “additional major sanctions” for North Korea following a phone call with President Xi Jingping of China.

Speaking of China, this morning China’s manufacturing PMI for November was reported as rising slightly to 51.8 from 51.6 the month prior. Expectations had been for a modest decline. The non-manufacturing PMI was also reported as rising, to 54.8 from 54.3. The other significant overnight news is that at the Fed, with Bloomberg reporting that monetary economist Marvin Goodfriend has been nominated by President Trump to be a governor at the Fed following an announcement by the White House. Goodfriend has previously questioned the use of QE post 2008 and was instead said to favour negative interest rates, despite acknowledging that it could require abolishing paper currency.

Back to Yellen, as was pretty much expected the Fed Chair played a relatively straight bat in what was likely her last testimony to Congress in her current role. As a broad conclusion, her tone seemed to somewhat reiterate a willingness at the Fed to continue with tightening but clearly dependent and limited on the data. A “gradual” need for rate increases was noted as being appropriate to sustain a healthy labour market and stabilize inflation. Recent inflation readings were highlighted as transitory which was also no change although she did note that the Fed has seen modest upward pressure on wages. She also made mention that the lesson from modest wages is that the labour market and economy are not overheated which was a similar comment to one made by the  incoming Chair Jerome Powell the day before. On growth Yellen also said that “economic growth appears to have stepped up from its subdued pace early in the year” and is now “increasingly broad-based across sectors as well as much of the global economy”. One topic which Yellen chose to refrain from addressing however was tax reform.

The Fed Chair’s comments around growth also came as the second reading for Q3 GDP was revised up a tenth more than expected to +3.3% qoq annualized, compared to the initial +3.0% estimate in the flash reading. Meanwhile the details showed that while headline PCE prices were revised down a tenth (+2.1% vs. +2.2%) the core PCE was however revised up a tenth to +1.4% qoq (compared to expectations for no change). It’s worth noting that corporate profits also rose +4.3% qoq and in year over year terms have now risen for four consecutive quarters following five quarters of consecutive declines ending in Q3 2016.

Yellen’s colleague at the Fed, the NY Fed President William Dudley, was also busy speaking yesterday. In comments at a moderated forum in New Jersey, Dudley played down any concern about the relative strength in markets currently although did make a special mention of being sceptical about Bitcoin. On the economy Dudley said that he thinks that the expansion has “got lots of room to go”. Meanwhile later on in the evening San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that four rate hikes in 2018 is his base case, roughly two more than that currently implied by market pricing.

Closer to home, as noted earlier UK assets spent much of yesterday absorbing the latest Brexit developments. Tuesday’s headlines regarding the agreement between the UK and EU on the divorce bill was confirmed by most major UK press outlets yesterday. It remains to be seen how PM May will deal with some likely fallout from her cabinet and a resolution on citizens’ rights and Northern  Ireland also remains outstanding, but it is still being taken as a key breakthrough of sorts.

Sterling rallied +0.52% and +0.47% respectively versus the Greenback and Euro yesterday, weighing on the FTSE 100 (-0.90%), while 2y, 10y and 30y Gilt yields rose +3.5bps, +8.4bps and +6.5bps. In contrast 10y Bunds were +4.5bps higher. Quickly wrapping up the remaining data yesterday, pending home sales in the US came in a much stronger than expected +3.5% mom (vs. +1.0%  expected). In Europe there was a modest upward surprise in the November flash CPI report in Germany where headline CPI came in at +0.3% mom (vs. +0.2% expected), helping to lift the YoY rate to +1.8% from +1.5% and the highest since February. In France Q3 GDP was left unrevised at +0.5% qoq while in the UK there wasn’t a huge amount interesting in the October money and credit aggregates data. Lending growth in consumer credit continued to flat line slightly but not to levels which would likely concern the BoE.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ll kick off with German retail sales data for October alongside the latest November house price data in the UK. Following that we’ll get the flash November CPI report for France where market expectations are for a modest +0.1% mom headline increase. That data comes before the wider Euro area report where the consensus is for a two-tenths increase in the headline to +1.6% yoy and one-tenth increase in the core to +1.0% yoy. In the US the big focus will be on the aforementioned inflation data too with the October personal income, spending and PCE data all due out at 1.30pm GMT. Also due is the November Chicago PMI and the latest weekly initial jobless claims data. The big focus away from the data will be a possible Senate vote on tax reform while central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Mersch (at 8am GMT) and Praet (10am GMT), Fed’s Kaplan (6pm GMT) and BoE’s Sharp (6.10pm GMT). The OPEC meeting in Vienna is also worth keeping a close eye on given that the meeting should include a discussion around extending production cuts.

via http://ift.tt/2iro3ve Tyler Durden

The euro stumbled, dropping to session lows on Thursday after Eurostat reported that despite a welcome decline in Europe’s unemployment rate to 8.8%, the lowest level in 9 years, Eurozone inflation missed expectations, rising from 1.4% to 1.5%, below the 1.6% consensus expectations, reminding the ECB that Phillips curves around the globe remain broken and that its intention to taper QE and tighten monetary policy may yet be derailed.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (4.7%, compared with 3.0% in October), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.2%, compared with 2.3% in October), services (1.2%, stable compared with October) and non-energy industrial goods (0.4%, stable compared with October).

European core inflation (excluding food, energy and tobacco) remained unchanged at 0.9% in November, below the 1% median estimate by economists. The euro traded lower after the report, and was at $1.1829 at 11:44 a.m in Frankfurt.

Indeed, as Bloomberg reports, the latest price data “outline the dilemma facing the ECB.” and even with the region’s economy set for the fastest growth in a decade and the most broad-based expansion since 1997, a sustained price recovery remains some way off. While policy makers have acknowledged that this development warrants less additional monetary support, ECB President Mario Draghi has advocated a “patient and persistent” approach to exiting the central bank’s stimulus program.

Despite inflation consistently undershooting expectations, policy makers have expressed confidence that economic growth and falling unemployment will eventually feed through to prices. “The solid and broad-based economic recovery in the euro area is continuing,” ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said on Thursday in Brussels. “The breadth of the expansion is notable.” Despite

“All indications are that the recovery will continue for longer, and that would put pressure on wages and prices going forward,” Vitor Constancio said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “It’s a gradual process, but we see it going in that direction.”

Governing Council members Jens Weidmann and Klaas Knot on Wednesday called for a more a decisive acknowledgment of the strengthening of the economy. “Evidence is mounting the economic outlook will be at least as good as previously forecast, if not even better,” Bundesbank President Weidmann said. “This development should continue for a while.”

Still the latest data means that when the ECB’s Governing Council next meets on Dec. 14, it will be faced once again with a picture of solid economic growth and subdued prices pressures. Policy makers announced in October that they will halve its current monthly pace of bond buying starting January and running until at least September.

“Absent deflation risk, a full phasing-out of net asset purchases from September 2018 onward is warranted,” Knot said in London.

via http://ift.tt/2AqD5rL Tyler Durden

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

I managed a track and field in team in high school. I was not the team coach, I was a student-manager who helped out with equipment, scheduling, training and other logistics.

Back in the days before internet I was the kid in the locker room phoning in athlete times and results to the local newspapers before the deadline for the next day’s edition.

I loved the faster track events like the 440-yard sprint and the half-mile distances. I always thought the most challenging track event was the high-hurdles. This combined speed and endurance, with precision coordination and athleticism on the jumps. One mistake in mid-air could result in a disastrous crash on a cinder track and a bloody injury.

It’s hard to picture Janet Yellen in a track suit, but she’s about to run a high-hurdle race of her own. She needs to clear three hurdles perfectly to make it to her self-imposed rate hike finish line on December 13. One false move and her plan to hike rates could end up in a bloody mess on a cinder track.

As you know, the Fed is on track (no pun intended) to hike rates at their FOMC meeting on December 13. This is as close to a “done deal” as you can get. Markets give this rate hike a 100% probability based on the implied probability from the CME fed funds futures contracts.

I’m the outlier.

I’m alone on an island saying that the Fed won’t hike rates based on nine straight months of bad inflation data. I’m not trying to be “in consensus” or “out-of-consensus,” I’m just trying to follow a Fed model that has been almost flawless in its predictive power since 2013.

That model has hit a lot of home runs. If I strike out this time, I’m not going to abandon the model. Even Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron and Willie Mays had their share of strikeouts even as they had slugging percentages in the .700+ range. Fine by me if we can keep up those kinds of long-term results.

Yet, even if you don’t use my Fed model or don’t like to be out-of-consensus, you still have to acknowledge the hurdles facing Janet Yellen as she races down the track to December 13.

Here they are:

Today, November 30:

This is when the Commerce Department releases the “PCE deflation, core year-over-year” number. Sounds geeky, but that’s the specific inflation number the Fed uses as a benchmark.

The Fed’s target is 2%. The last reading was 1.3%, down from 1.9% at the beginning of 2017.

If this number comes in at 1.3% or less (expectations are at 1.4%), it’s hard to see how the Fed raises rates unless they are willing to ignore their own benchmark in favor of the mythical Phillips Curve and even more mythical “stimulus” effects of the proposed Trump tax bill.

Important voices like Neel Kashkari, Charles Evans, Lael Brainard, Benn Steil and others are already warning that a rate hike in December could be a huge blunder if the inflation data is weak.

We’ll see how this plays out. For now I’m betting on more weak data and that the Fed blinks at the last minute by not raising rates.

Friday, December 1

This is when the Senate votes on the Trump tax bill. The actual macroeconomic effects of this bill are irrelevant for the moment. What matters is the importance of a “win” for the Republican Party and the stock market.

Right now the Republicans do not have the 50 votes they need. Can they get them by Friday? That’s uncertain, but there’s a good chance they won’t succeed.

In that case, you’ll have a replay of the failure the of Obamacare “Repeal and Replace” drama. Markets will sell off big time if the tax bill fails. That kind of sell off, plus the failure of the presumed stimulus will be enough to get the Fed to pause in their rate hike path on December.

Friday, December 8

This is when the government spending authority shuts down and the Treasury hits the debt ceiling. A “Daily Double” for government dysfunction!

The debt ceiling won’t immediately impact the Treasury market because the Treasury can use “extraordinary measures” (including a gold price reset) to keep paying the bills until early next year. Then a hard debt ceiling will be hit. Still, any market uncertainty is one more reason not to raise rates.

[ZH: The T-Bill market is starting to get anxious:]

Of greater immediate impact is a government shutdown. Of course, shutdowns have happened in the past, and have always been temporary, never the end of the world. Some last minute fix is possible. Even if the shutdown occurs, it’s likely to be over in a week or so.

But, there are only three business days between the scheduled shutdown and the FOMC meeting. It’s hard to imagine the Fed tightening financial conditions when the entire government (or at least “non-essential personnel”) are locked out of their offices.

The issues that could cause a shutdown are all difficult to compromise including Trump’s “Wall,” Obamacare funding bailouts, Planned Parenthood funding, immigration, disaster relief, flood insurance bailouts, and many more.

Here’s the bottom line:

If PCE is hot (1.6% or higher), the tax bill passes, and the government does not shut down, then Yellen has cleared all three hurdles, and she’s on her way to a rate hike finish line.

If she stumbles on any one of these hurdles, let alone all three, then a rate hike is off the table. If the odds of failure are each hurdle are 33% (about right in my view), then the odds of failure on one out of three are 99%.

No one in the market is thinking about the odds that way, but a statistician will tell you that’s the right way to analyze it.

Since markets are 100% priced for a rate hike, nothing much happens if the FOMC actually hikes rates. But if the rate hike does not happen, markets need to reprice for the new reality. That means gold, euros, yen, and Treasury bonds will soar, and the dollar, bond yields, and stocks could crumble.

These are asymmetric “heads you win, tails you don’t lose” trades. You could have big gains if the Fed pauses, but won’t lose much if they don’t.

These hurdles are coming up in days, so the time to enter these trades is now. The easiest way is to buy gold or gold mining stocks.

Then sit back and enjoy the show.

via http://ift.tt/2Alh8rS Tyler Durden

We’ve written a lot about property bubbles in recent weeks – how the bubbles in London and Sydney are bursting, Hong Kong’s has just seen the record price paid per square foot (Twice in the same day) and Monaco is building into the Mediterranean Sea to satisfy the huge demand from frustrated millionaires. A bit like Monaco, one of the problems for Lisbon’s house buyers is that central Lisbon is relatively small. According to Bloomberg.

In central Lisbon’s property market, sellers are kings. The Portuguese capital’s real estate boom is entering a new phase as a shortage of prime property in the city center is prompting some buyers to bid above the asking price for the last available units.

“There’s a big gap between supply and demand,” said Luis Tilli, a real estate agent at Lisbon-based HomeLovers, which is selling a three-bedroom, 236 square meter (2,540 square feet) refurbished duplex in the historic quarter of Chiado for 2 million euros ($2.38 million). “It’s reached a point where some investors offer to pay above the asking price just so they can close a deal.”

“There are a very limited number of buildings located in the center of Lisbon to purchase,” said Jose Cardoso Botelho, head of Vanguard Properties, a real estate firm controlled by French-Swiss investor Claude Berda that’s bought 10 buildings in Lisbon since it began investing in the city last year. “We’ve started looking for building plots on the outskirts of the city now, but it hasn’t been easy.”

For most people are concerned, Lisbon has probably slipped under the housing bubble radar. As Bloomberg explains, however, the foundations for the current bubble date back to 2012.

Lisbon’s property market revival began after the previous government eased long-held rent controls and started offering residence permits in 2012 to non-European property buyers, mostly from China. Portugal’s tax-friendly regime for foreign residents and a tourism boom that led to the conversion of hundreds of buildings into short-term rental apartments and hotels have also helped fuel demand.

The last time we wrote about Lisbon property was in November 2014 in “Dear Portugal, Meet Your New Landlord – China". As we noted back then.

…at a property auction in Lisbon, Portugal last month, about 90% of the bidders for the government-owned apartments and stores on offer were Chinese. They ended up acquiring more than two-thirds of the 45 properties, with one money-launderer investor noting "Lisbon is cheap if you compare it with other cities”.

 

1-in-4 homes bought by foreigners in America in 2014 were by Chinese and Portugal is already at 1-in-5.

While prices have risen by more than a third during the last five years, there is a classic squeeze taking place in Lisbon’s historic centre.

Home prices in the city rose 35 percent from 2012 to 2016, when they reached the highest since at least 2007, according to Confidencial Imobiliario, which collects data on the real estate sector. In Lisbon’s historic center, property prices increased 26 percent in the first half of 2017 while the number of deals fell 34 percent from the same period a year earlier, a sign of a shortage of housing stock.

“It’s the first time that Lisbon has a shortage of homes to satisfy investor demand,” said Lima. “Home buyers need to realize it’s impossible for everyone to live in Avenida da Liberdade,” he said, referring to a boulevard in Lisbon lined with gardens, ornately tiled sidewalks and luxury shops that’s considered the local Champs-Elysees.

Average home prices in the central historic neighborhoods of Baixa, Chiado and Avenida da Liberdade were at 6,367 euros per square meter in the first quarter, according to a study by property appraiser and consulting company Prime Yield.

The country is expected to attract a record 3 billion euros in property investment this year, mostly from foreigners. That’s up from 1.3 billion euros in 2016, according to broker CBRE Group Inc.

The shortage of prime Lisbon property is so acute that Madonna struggled to find a property when she decided to move to the Portuguese capital to support her son’s adopted son’s career ambitions. David Banda has been picked to play in the junior squad of Portugal’s most famous club, Benfica. Bloomberg continues.

Fueling the demand are the likes of rock star Madonna, the latest of a handful of celebrities to show an interest in a city that’s often compared to San Francisco because of its steep hills, trams and red suspension bridge. But central Lisbon’s housing stock is much smaller than in other European cities such as Madrid, London and Paris, and it’s quickly running out, according to Luis Lima, head of Portugal’s Real Estate Professionals and Brokers Association.

Even the “queen of pop” has showed some frustration in her quest to find a home in the southern European city. In June, the 59-year-old Madonna visited a hilltop palace in Lisbon as part of her search for a home in the city, according to Sotheby’s International Realty. Four months later she shared a picture of herself riding a horse on a beach with a caption on her Instagram account that read: “Can’t find a house in Lisbon but damn… sure can find a horse!”

It’s the same story we hear in London, Sydney, Auckland, Vancouver and many more. Local people are priced out of the market and efforts by politicians to reverse the trend have generally been futile, as the Bloomberg piece makes clear.

As housing stocks dwindle and prices rise, Lisbon residents are finding themselves being priced out of the real estate market in the city center…The Lisbon City Council plans to offer affordable housing to low- and middle-income residents in the city center, where a growing number of units have been snapped up by foreign investors. Under the plan, as many as 7,000 new homes with monthly rents between 250 euros and 450 euros will be made available. “We must stop the exodus from the city center of residents who can’t afford the rising real estate and rental prices,” said Romao Lavadinho, president of the Association for Lisbon Tenants. “There are parents moving in with their children and children moving back into their parents’ home.”

Even stringent Chinese capital controls haven’t slowed down Lisbon property prices…perhaps only the bursting of the central bankers bubble can achieve that?

via http://ift.tt/2AolxN8 Tyler Durden

Russia & China Use Logic When it Comes to Gold

Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall, The Daily Coin

As we reported both here and here, gold is the answer going forward. How we the people will access physical gold or if we will be able to access physical gold is really the only remaining question. How high gold is going is the other important question. I hope it doesn’t get into the lofty heights that have been suggested in recent years – highs like $7,000, $9,000 and even $10,000 an ounce, as it would be much harder for people to use in everyday transactions. Unless, of course, it was on the blockchain or some other yet-to-be-developed type of fintech.

It is also no secret that Russia is looking for the exit door where the Federal Reserve Note (FRN), world reserve currency, US dollar is concerned. Russia has made it very clear they are making all the moves to stop using the FRN/US dollar as their primary currency to settle international trade. Gold will probably handle Russia’s trade settlement just fine.

Gold Is Russian Answer To U.S. Dollar Dominance – CPM Group

Russia’s increased purchases of gold is not a red flag, but a clear message of diversification away from the U.S. dollar and its “monetary hegemony,” according to Jeff Christian, the CPM Group managing director.

In October, Russia added another 21 metric tons of gold, which tripled the amount over the last decade and brought the overall total to 1,800 tons.

Russia has added, approximately 18 tons per month, every month, for the past 3 years. At their current pace Russia will move ahead of China into sixth largest gold hoard by late Q1 2018.

But, it’s “business as usual for Russia,” Christian told Kitco News at the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco. “[Russia is] finally able to execute on a long-term desire to rebuild their [gold] inventories and to diversify away from the dollar.”

Russia has witnessed most of its gold reserves sold off after the breakup of the Soviet Union, which it has been attempting to regain since about 1997, Christian pointed out.

“In 1997 to 2005 [Russia] didn’t have the foreign exchange and capital inflows needed to convert money to gold. But, as the oil, palladium, and nickel prices started rising in 2005, all of a sudden, Russia’s economy had a massive inflow of U.S. dollars.”

But, the Russian government quickly realized that it had a problem relying on the U.S. currency, said Christian.

“Russia had a massive inflow of U.S. dollars at a time when the U.S. government was increasingly hostile toward the Russian government,” he noted, adding that Russia decided to diversify away from the American currency.

Christian added that Russia is not alone in sending this kind of message of diversification, highlighting that China as well as many other countries are on the same page.

“China in Q1 2009 bought a lot of gold that was supposed to go to China Investment Corp, the sovereign wealth fund. And instead, the government decided to add it to monetary reserves to send a message to the U.S. Treasury that China can in fact diversify monetary reserves,” he said.

Change is in the air, according to Christian: “There is a great dissatisfaction with the monetary hegemony that the U.S. has exercised since WWII and [the world] will move towards some sort of post-Bretton Wood floating exchange rate program at some point in the future.”

You know there is a serious alliance between Russia and China when even Jeffrey Christian can’t discuss one without mentioning the other. These two countries are working hand-in-glove to displace the FRN from its world reserve currency status and move into a system that includes gold at the foundation. Neither country wishes to upset the warmongers in Washington DC as these two countries understand they are dealing with an unstable group who haven’t honored one treaty they have ever signed – not one treaty in all the history of Washington DC has ever been honored. Russia and China are just going about their business of conducting business and when all the major competent pieces are in place it will be too late for the US/Uk to retaliate.

Questions or comments about this article? Leave your thoughts HERE.

Russia & China Use Logic When it Comes to Gold

Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall, The Daily Coin

Check out these other articles by our contributors:

Dave Kranzler –  Bitcoin’s Inconvenient Truths: The Silence Is Deafening

Craig Hemke – Banks Again Defending Silver’s 200-Day Moving Average

Ask The Expert: Jim Willie

via http://ift.tt/2Amxdxv Sprott Money

Authored by Jacob Bojesson via The Daily Caller,

Hungary’s ruling party is stepping up its campaign against billionaire investor George Soros by distributing a book that accuses the financier of pursuing a plan to flood Europe with migrants.

The book, titled “George Soros,” is written by Andreas von Rétyi – a German author known for pushing conspiracy theories about UFOs and what caused the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks on the U.S.

 

Fidesz, a conservative party led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, plans to distribute 5,000 copies to local politicians across the country.

 

“The book is a detailed and accurate piece,” Fidesz spokesman János Halász told broadcaster RTL Klub, according to newspaper Die Welt.

The Orban administration launched an anti-Soros campaign in the spring to halt the Hungarian-born investor’s operations in the country.

The streets of Budapest were filled with posters and billboards of the Hungarian-born billionaire with the caption “Don’t let Soros get the last laugh!”

Hungarian government poster portraying financier George Soros and saying "Don't let George Soros have the last laugh" is seen at an underground stop in Budapest.

The campaign claims that Soros wants a 1 million refugee influx to Europe per year.

“The Hungarian standpoint is that illegal migration is clearly a matter of national security,” Orban’s spokesman, Zoltan Kovacs, told The Daily Caller News Foundation in a recent interview.

 

“We shall mobilize the political and legal power of the Hungarian state against anyone who undermines the security of Hungary – regardless of their origins, religious affiliation or wealth.”

Soros struck back at Orban by describing his “mafia state” as “one which maintains a facade of democracy.”

via http://ift.tt/2AIjDHT Tyler Durden

Content originally published at iBankCoin.com

 A lawyer for former DNC IT staffer Imran Awan is scrambling to block evidence found on a hidden laptop which may contain proof of a massive spy ring operating at the highest levels of Congress, in what may be the largest breach of National Security in U.S. history.

Awan, a Pakistani national, worked for dozens of Democratic members of Congress along with his wife, two brothers and a friend. Following the publication of DNC emails by WikiLeaks in the lead-up to the 2016 election, Congressional investigators discovered that the Awans had a secret server being housed by the House Democratic Caucus backed up to an offsite Dropbox account.

“For members to say their data was not compromised is simply inaccurate. They had access to all the data including all emails. Imran Awan is the walking example of an insider threat, a criminal actor who had access to everything,” –Daily Caller

According to a briefing, “all five of the shared employees system administrators collectively logged onto the [House Democratic] Caucus system 5,735 times, or an average of 27 times per day,” despite only one of them being authorized to do so.

The Awans were banned from the House IT network on February 2, 2017 after being named in a criminal investigation – however they continued to work in the building for Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz until Imran Awan’s arrest at Dulles Airport trying to flee the country in late July. Awan and his wife, Hina Alvi, were charged with conspiracy and bank fraud in relation to a real estate transaction.

The laptop in question was tucked away in a tiny room formerly used as a phone booth on the second floor of the Rayburn House Office Building late one night in March, only to be found by Capitol Police just after midnight on April 6, 2017 along with notebooks marked ‘attorney client privilege,’ letters addressed to the US Attorney of DC regarding Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and several forms of identification. Based on the contents of the backpack, some believe Awan wanted the laptop to be found.

Attorney-Client Privilege

Luke Rosiak of the Daily Caller, who has been tracking the Awan case, reports that Awan’s attorney Chris Gowen – a former aide to Hillary Clinton, is seeking to block the laptop evidence by arguing the ‘attorney client privilege‘ note attached to the notebook found with the laptop covers the contents of the hard drive, according to court papers filed Tuesday.

Via the Daily Caller:

“Chris Gowen, Awan’s attorney, said at the last hearing: “We do expect there being an attorney-client privilege issue in this case… What occurred is a backpack from my client was found, he was trying to get a better signal, there was a note that said attorney client privilege and a hard drive. We feel very strongly about this.”

A Capitol Police report reveals the following items were found in the backpack:

#1 a Pakistani ID card with the name Mohommed Ashraf Awan
#2 a copy – not original – of a driver’s license with name Imran Awan
#3 a copy (front and back) of his congressional ID
#4 an Apple laptop with the homescreen initials ‘RepDWS’
#5 composition notebooks with notes handwritten saying ‘attorney client privilege’ and possibly discussing case details below
#6 loose letters addressed to US Attorney of DC discussing the apparent owner of the bag being investigated.

As Rosiak points out, it is unclear how the handwritten note saying “attorney client privilege” could be construed to cover a hard drive, rather than the pages of [the] notebook it was contained on.

Andrew McCarthy, a former chief assistant U.S. attorney who has followed the case, said “The A/C (attorney-client) privilege only applies to communications between the client and lawyer that are for the purpose of seeking legal advice and that are intended by both parties to be kept confidential… Moreover, asserting that something is A/C protected does not make it so. You still have to show that the material in question constitutes communications strictly between the lawyer and client that were for the purpose of seeking legal advice.

“If I give my lawyer my bank records and ask him if they show evidence of a crime, the bank records do not become A/C-privileged — only his advice to me would be A/C-privileged. And if I stuck a sign on my bank records that said ‘A/C-privileged documents,’ that would not make them A/C-privileged documents,” he told The Daily Caller News Foundation Wednesday.” –Daily Caller

Debbie Downer

In May of 2016, Debbie Wasserman Schulz – an employer and personal friend of Awan – spent several minutes browbeating the Chief of DC Capitol Police at a budget meeting, claiming the laptop should be given back since it was hers and threatening ‘consequences’ if it wasn’t returned.

#DebbieWassermanSchultz threatens DC Police Chief over not returning Arwan Bros laptop. “there will be consequences” https://t.co/2phDMnvWq5 http://pic.twitter.com/e2wkBJSaim

— ZeroPointNow (@ZeroPointNow) May 25, 2017

Of Note

The Awan brothers were managing computers for members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence – a group with top secret clearance which is looking into Russian election interference right now.

Also of note

The brothers were “shared employees,” hired by multiple Democrats for IT work whenever it was needed – so they floated all over the place doing all sorts of work on House members computers. Democrats Juaquin Castro, Cedric Richmond, Andre Carson, Jackie Speier, Tammy Duckworth, and Louis Frankel all employed the Awans.

Information Brokers? 

Judge Andrew Napolitano appeared on Fox Business Network in late July where he dropped a bombshell: not only did the Awans had access to the emails of every member of Congress, Imran Awan reportedly sold information to still unknown parties, which the FBI is currently investigating.

Napolitano: He was arrested for some financial crime – that’s the tip of the iceberg. The real allegation against him is that he had access to the emails of every member of congress and he sold what he found in there. What did he sell, and to whom did he sell it? That’s what the FBI wants to know. This may be a very, very serious national security situation.

 

Varney: Wait a second, he was the IT worker along with his two Pakistani brothers, for DWS, and other Democrats in the House – and the theory is that he got access to all of their secrets or whatever, and sold some?

 

Napolitano: Yes, and this was at the time that Congresswoman Schultz was also the chair of the Democratic National Committee. So at this point I don’t believe they know what he sold, and to whom he sold it – but they do know what he had access to, which is virtually everything in the House of representatives, which would include classified material in the House intelligence committee.

 

Lt. Colonel Tony Shaffer went even further – claiming that the Awan brothers were linked to the Muslim Brotherhood while working for Democrat Congressman Andre Carson, a report reinforced by Frontpage Magazine:

As Frontpage reported in February:

The office of Andre Carson, the second Muslim in Congress, had employed Imran Awan. As did the offices of Jackie Speier and Debbie Wasserman Schultz; to whom the letter had been addressed.

Carson is the second Muslim in Congress and the first Muslim on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and, more critically, is the ranking member on its Emerging Threats Subcommittee. He is also a member of the Department of Defense Intelligence and Overhead Architecture Subcommittee.

The Emerging Threats Subcommittee, of which Carson is a ranking member, is responsible for much of counterterrorism oversight. It is the worst possible place for a man with Carson’s credentials.

Carson had inherited his grandmother’s seat and exploited it to promote a radical Islamist agenda. He has interfaced with a laundry list of Islamist groups from CAIR to ISNA to ICNA to MPAC. Islamists have funded Carson’s career to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars. The Center for Security Policy has put together a dossier of Carson’s connections to the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood is the parent organization of many key Islamic terror groups posing a threat to our national security including Al Qaeda and Hamas.

Andre Carson shared the stage at a CAIR banquet with Sirraj Wahaj: an unindicted co-conspirator in the World Trade Center bombing who had once declared,” You don’t get involved in politics because it’s the American thing to do. You get involved in politics because politics are a weapon to use in the cause of Islam.” CAIR itself had been named an unindicted co-conspirator in terror finance.

Immunity for Hina?

In September, it was reported that Hina Alvi – Imran Awan’s wife, had struck a deal with federal prosecutors to return to the U.S. from Pakistan to face conspiracy and bank fraud charges.

Alvi and her children fled to the safety of Pakistan in early 2017, so her voluntary return – which was structured with an arrest to be made “not in front of her children” is significant. Upon her return to the United States, Hina was arraigned on four felony counts of bank fraud and handed over her U.S. passport to prosecutors.

Congressman Trent Franks (R-AZ) says that Alvi’s return may be part of a broader immunity deal with prosecutors in return for a “significant” and “pretty disturbing” story about Debbie Wasserman Schultz:

“I don’t want to talk out of school here but I think you’re going to see some revelations that are going to be pretty profound.  The fact that this wife is coming back from Pakistan and is willing to face charges, as it were, I think there is a good chance she is going to reach some type of immunity to tell a larger story here that is going to be pretty disturbing to the American people.”

“I would just predict that this is going to be a very significant story and people should fasten their seat belts on this one.”

Despite the volumes of evidence stacking up against the former DNC IT staffers, Debbie Wasserman Schultz claims the entire investigation of the Awans is nothing more than Islamophobia.

Follow on Twitter @ZeroPointNow § Subscribe to our YouTube channel

via http://ift.tt/2AnNanf ZeroPointNow

Last month, we discussed how Frankfurt was emerging as the clear winner. When UBS staff were asked to rank which city they would prefer to be relocated to, their options were Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Madrid. Our top picks would have been Paris and Dublin, which didn’t even make the short list. On 19 October 2017, Goldman’s Chairman, Lloyd Blankfein, garnered lots of media attention after he tweeted.

"Just left Frankfurt. Great meetings, great weather, really enjoyed it. Good, because I'll be spending a lot more time there. #Brexit."

If Lloyds is thinking about buying himself a smart pied-a-terre in Frankfurt, he’s going to have plenty of options as a Brexit-driven construction boom is taking place in the city. The sharp rise in residential property prices is justifying the construction of “skyscrapers”, as Bloomberg explains.

The prices for new condominiums in Frankfurt have now reached such a high level that it pays off for project developers to build high-rise residential buildings and more and more such towers are being built in the German financial capital. This emerges from an assessment by consulting company Bulwiengesa AG.

In 2017 alone, asking prices rose by 15 percent compared to the previous year. A total of eight residential high-rise buildings have been completed since 2014 in the city. 20 more could be added by 2022. Five are currently under construction and another 15 are planned. These are key findings of the study.

"The cost of building skyscrapers is about twice as high as in ordinary multi-storey housing," Sven Carstensen, Frankfurt branch manager at Bulwiengesa, said in an interview with Bloomberg. "Therefore, you also need correspondingly higher revenue."

He explains the increase in prices above all with the high demand pressure. Unlike other cities, Frankfurt offers little land potential. That applies especially in the city center, he said. Skyscraper are the answer. A factor should also be the exit of Great Britain from the EU. "The expected influx of Brexit newcomers will help to absorb the volume of high-rise housing," Carstensen said.

One of the highest profile of the new residential skyscrapers is the 51-storey Grand Tower which, conveniently, has been under construction since the beginning of 2016 – although the Brexit vote was not until 23 June 2016. The Grand Tower will be Germany’s tallest residential building at 172 metres and contain 401 apartments and penthouses.

It’s clear that many thousands of jobs will relocate from London, even if some banks, like UBS, are reversing their initial apocalyptic estimates (one fifth of its 5,000 strong workforce). While the exact figure is subject to debate, some commentators are predicting that Frankfurt will be the recipient of more than half. Bloomberg continues.

While it is unknown how many bankers will ultimately move to Frankfurt, there are plenty of forecasts. "We expect that at least half of London’s declining financial jobs will be relocated to Frankfurt, which will be at least 8,000 employees over a period of several years," Helaba Chief Economist Gertrud Traud said at the end of August.

According to Bulwiengesa, this year’s highest construction activity for new condominiums overall, not just for high-rise buildings, can be found in downtown Frankfurt. The consulting firm identified 24 projects with around 2200 apartments in this area. The company takes a closer look at the market once a year. The weighted average price of new condominiums is around 6190 euros per square meter in Frankfurt, according to the data.

Skyscrapers are not new for Frankfurt. In the office sector, they have long dominated the skyline. But now they are increasingly being built for apartments. Carstensen: "There are thus few acceptance problems – both from the administration and from the urban society".

While the shiny new towers will help, Frankfurt’s attempts to shake off its dull image and promote itself as a “lifestyle destination” still ring a little hollow. As the architecture magazine, Dezeen, noted.

Frankfurt lacks the cultural and lifestyle attractions of London as well as continental rivals such as Paris and Amsterdam, but is now working hard to become more appealing to high-spending financial workers.

Time will tell, but our question is how will the former London-based UBS or Goldman employee, who relocated to Frankfurt, feel on a cold Monday night as he sips a glass of Riesling 25 floors up in his glass tower?

via http://ift.tt/2kcMj4J Tyler Durden