Futures Surge As Johnson, Daines Greenlight Tax Bill

After a planned series of votes on the Trump tax plan were called off last night, GOP senators were scrambling to assuage the concerns of Republican holdouts who suddenly decided that the tax bill would blow out the deficit after one proposal – a so-called “trigger” that would automatically raise taxes if revenue targets aren’t met – was rejected by the Senate Parliamentarian. With the first roll-call vote set for 11 am, Republican leaders were scrambling to have amendments of their own lined up for later in the day, with a vote hoped for by late Friday or early Saturday.

And while global stocks and US futures slid overnight on bill jitters, "risk on" euphoria promptly returned when in the latest Friday morning developments, Senators Steve Daines and Ron Johnson both said they would support the Republican bill following a plan to raise the pass-through deduction – a tax tool overwhelmingly used by small businesses – to 23%.

Senator Daines says he doesn’t see a revenue trigger replacement making it into the final Senate Republican tax bill, adding he thinks bill will pass without needing changes to win Sen. Bob Corker’s support.  "That’s going nowhere," he says of revenue raisers to replace the trigger, adding that what Corker is suggesting "is just causing more problems."

"The win that we obtained last night … really it's a $100 billion tax cut for these Main Street businesses," Daines said Friday on "Fox and Friends First." He said his change would allow the effective tax rate for pass-throughs to fall below 30 percent. Pass-through income can currently be taxed at rates as high as 39.6 percent.

Separately, a spokesperson for Johnson confirmed that the Wisconsin Republican would also be a yes vote. Daines and Johnson had earlier come out against the version of the bill that passed the Senate Finance Committee, saying it didn't do enough to help pass-through businesses.

Pass-throughs are entities such as partnerships and sole proprietorships whose income is taxed through the individual code. Small businesses tend to be pass-throughs. The Senate bill initially included a 17.4-percent deduction for pass-through businesses. Daines's office said the senator has gotten a commitment that the deduction will be increased to 23 percent.

The news sent stock futures surging, mirroring a bump from last night when Sen. John McCain announced that he would vote for the bill, defying speculation that he would instead vote to kill it.

The reason for the surge: if Daines, Collins, and McCain stick to their commitments to back the tax bill –  and now Johnson joins – and no one besides Flake and Corker vote against it, the Republican Senate should have enough votes to pass the tax bill.

That said, keep a close eye on McCain…

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“You’re Right, I’m A Threat To Big Banks” – UK Opposition Leader, Jeremy Corbyn, Lashes Out At Morgan Stanley

Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley published a report arguing that UK opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister, was a bigger threat to UK asset markets than Brexit. MS saw a two thirds chance of a snap UK election in the second half of 2018 when UK can’t secure a satisfactory Brexit deal and the ruling Conservative party fractures. This could lead to a sharp swing in political support towards the far left, Corbyn’s ascension, a 32% crash in the Footsie 100 index, another big fall in Sterling, nationalizations and irreparable damage to free markets…basically heaps of bad stuff.  The Guardian quoted from the MS report.

“From a UK investor perspective, we believe that the domestic political situation is at least as significant as Brexit, given the fragile state of the current government and the perceived risks of an incoming Labour administration that could potentially embark on a radical change in policy direction. “Against this backdrop, even if we see good progress in the Brexit negotiations, the scope for UK sensitive assets to rally may be muted, unless we also see an improvement in the government’s position in opinion polls.”

MS equity strategist, Graham Secker, handed out a warning for UK investors, which was reported by Bloomberg.

“If I am a U.K. equities fund manager, I am more concerned about a potential change in the domestic political government than I am about Brexit,” Secker said at a briefing Monday. “You need to think about tax rates going up, about nationalization, about an economic system which has favored capital over labor for last 10 to 20 years shifting to favor labor over capital.”

The MS comments received considerably media coverage and obviously raised the ire of Jeremy Corbyn, who responded in a video released on social media. Corbyn begins his video message with.

“Bankers like Morgan Stanley should not run our country, but they think they do, because the party they fund, and protects their interests, is in Downing Street.

Corbyn vowed that his Labour Party would soon be publishing policies on the financial sector and its plans for the UK economy. According to Bloomberg.

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the U.K.’s opposition Labour Party, lashed out at Morgan Stanley on Thursday after the bank warned of the risk to investors of him winning power. Graham Secker, an equity strategist at the bank, said Monday that the possibility of a Labour government should concern equity investors more than Britain’s departure from the European Union, scheduled for March 2019.

“When they say we’re a threat, they’re right. We’re a threat to a damaging and failing system that’s rigged for the few,” Corbyn said in a video message released on social media. “These are the same speculators and gamblers who crashed our economy in 2008 and then we had to bail them out. Their greed plunged the world into crisis and we’re still paying the price.” Corbyn has pledged to renationalize Britain’s railways as well as water and energy companies to reverse the privatizations started under Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

Corbyn accused Theresa’s May’s government of allowing Morgan Stanley to become too close to senior policymakers. He highlighted four meetings between Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, with the bank during the last year and how some large Conservative party donors (who’ve given £350,000) have links to the bank. As Bloomberg notes, Corbyn singled out MS’s CEO for criticism.

“The Tories used the aftermath of the financial crisis to push through unnecessary and deeply damaging austerity. That’s meant a crisis in our public services, falling wages and the longest decline in living standards for over 60 years,” Corbyn said. “Nurses, teachers, shopworkers, builders, just about everyone is finding it harder to get by, while Morgan Stanley’s CEO paid himself 21.5 million pounds ($29 million) last year and U.K. banks paid out 15 billion pounds in bonuses.”

As the FT highlighted, however, it’s not just the Conservative party which has high-level links to Morgan Stanley. The Labour party has two also.

The bank has strong ties to both political parties, however. Alistair Darling, who was a Labour chancellor until 2010, has served on the bank’s board since 2015. Jeremy Heywood, head of Britain’s civil service, was a managing director at Morgan Stanley, including as co-head of UK investment banking, before returning to public service in 2007.

The FT notes that Corbyn’s comments represent a reversal of recent Labour attempts to court the business sector.

The attack comes despite recent attempts by John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, to build bridges with the City and the business world through a series of meetings.

McDonnell is much in demand, according to Bloomberg, although our suspicion is that City and industry figures are merely trying to ascertain just “how Marxist” a Labour government would be.

Even economy spokesman John McDonnell, who was criticized by some in his own party for saying “there was a lot to learn” from Karl Marx’s “Das Kapital,” is being courted by big business. Some lobbyists say access to McDonnell has become the top demand from their clients.

BlueBay Asset Management LLP, which manages $57 billion of assets and is among investors that are speaking to the opposition party, was scheduled to meet McDonnell this week. “It’s not a surprise there is a swing toward redistributionist policy” because living standards in the U.K. have fallen, Mark Bathgate, a portfolio manager at BlueBay said last week. “Whether it’s good or bad is not for us to decide. We’re making sure we engage with a prospective government.”

Probably very. This is Corbyn in a rare "pro-business" looking mode.

 

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There Are Libertarians All Over the World. Donate to Help Reason Cover Them!

Reason does not have a Johannesburg bureau. Or a Caracas bureau. Or a Havana bureau.

Which means that when we get tips for stories abroad that we think Reason readers need to know about, we have to (a) find a friendly reporter on the ground to cover the story for us, or (b) send someone in to get the facts and footage we need. Interpid overseas libertarian freelancers are precious, rare, and often in high demand. Meanwhile, plane tickets and hotels and translators and fixers and travel insurance all typically require the kind of money that can be hard to come by at a nonprofit publication.

Even the simplest, straightforward international reporting trip can easily run to $5,000, more if we send Reason TV to produce video as well. Would you consider funding a feature in the future? Or at least pay Reason TV’s massive checked bag fees for all that gear?

To remind you what you’d be getting for your money, why not browse through some (well, most) of the original, on-the-ground international reporting Reason has produced in the last year and change:

In March, freelancer Francisco Toro reported on why Ugandans are starving because they can’t trust their seed markets, traveling around the countryside to discuss the situation with East African farmers, bureaucrats, and businessmen.

Toro, a journalist previously based in Caracas, has also reported on the plight of ordinary Venezuelans as their country undergoes a disastrous bout of socialist deja vu. Another Venezuela journalist, Maria Alba Toledo, reports from Guayana City on the ways that President Nicolas Marudo has brought the country to the edge of starvation, death, and despair.

Photographer Tor Birk Trads captured shots of one of the world’s most daring journalists, Flemming Rose, in Denmark.

Managing Editor Stephanie Slade went to Havana, shortly after Donald Trump announced plans to restrict trade with the poor island nation. Starvation won’t turn Cubans into capitalists, Slade argued, but trade and tourism might.

Former Reason intern Tate Watkins checked in from the dysfunctional coffee plantations of Haiti, in search of the answer to the question: Why Are Haiti’s Coffee Trees So Tall?

Leon Louw, executive director of the South Africa–based Free Market Foundation, sat down with Johannesburg’s newly elected classical liberal mayor, Herman Mashaba, to talk about his planned reforms.

(Sometimes the subjects of our international stories come to us, as in the case of “Egypt’s Jon Stewart,” Bassem Youssef, whose comedy news show had 30 million viewers. Then he was forced to flee to Los Angeles, where he spoke with Reason TV’s Justin Monticello. But we’re not usually so lucky, and they’re not always so unlucky.)

Reason TV’s Jim Epstein reported on the Students for Liberty chapter in Brazil that helped bring down left-wing populist Dilma Rousseff, leading protests where millions flooding the streets, many carrying signs that read “Less Marx, More Mises.”

If you like what you see here, and want Reason to engage more often and more deeply with the people fighting for (and against!) free minds and free markets around the world, why not donate now?

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FBI Investigating ‘Anarchist-Extremists’ of ‘an Antifa Ideology,’ Secretary of State Mike Pompeo?, McDonald’s Bun Maker Loses 800 Employees in ICE Raid: A.M. Links

  • The New York Times is reporting that the Trump administration plans to oust Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and sub in current CIA director Mike Pompeo. Sen. Tom Cotton is reportedly also on President’s Trumps shortlist for the position.
  • FBI Director Christopher Wray told the House Homeland Security Committee yesterday that the agency was working on “a number of what we would call anarchist-extremist investigations, where we have properly predicated subjects of people who are motivated to commit violent criminal activity on kind of an Antifa ideology.”
  • Academic criminologists aren’t happy about the FBI withholding certain crime data.
  • A Chicago bakery that makes hamburger buns for McDonald’s just lost more than one-third of its workforce—800 employees—in an immigration raid.
  • “In truth, there is no substantive reason why this zucchini interaction should have escalated into the most trending online debate on feminism in South Korea this past weekend. But it did…”
  • The mayor of Canton, New York, is in court after he “admitted to using Craigslist to pay a woman $300 for a sexual massage.”
  • Def Jam records co-founder and music mogul Russell Simmons has resigned from his companies in the midst of sexual assault allegations.

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Loonie Soars After Canadian Data Crushes Expectations, 14 Sigma Jobs Beat

The loonie just exploded by 100 pips following a barrage of Canadian eco data, including GDP and employment, both of which crushed expectations.

September GDP rose 0.2% ,/ vs exp. 0.1%, and up from -0.1% in August, which means Q3 annualized GDP will be 1.7%.

But it was the jobs data which was particularly noteworthy; in fact it was borderline “Australian” in how ridiculous the print was: the employment rate in November was 79.5k, up from 35.3k last month, and 8 times higher than the consensus estimate. Not only was this the highest print since 2012, it was also a 14 sigma beat!

Canada also reported a 5.9% November unemployment rate, far below the 6.2% consensus estimate; this translated into total employment +2.1% or 390K from a year earlier.

Some more labor market details:

  • Full-time employment rose 29.6K in Nov., change in Oct. 88.7K
  • Part-time employment rose 49.9K in Nov., last month change was -53.4K
  • Private employment rose 72.4K in Nov., last month change was 39.1K
  • Public employment rose 10.6K in Nov., last month change was -4.5K
  • Self-employment fell 3.5K in Nov., last month change was 0.8K
  • Goods employment rose 37.4K in Nov., last month change was 33.9K
  • Services employment rose 42.1K in Nov., last month change was 1.4K
  • Total number of hours worked are up 1% y/y in Nov., +2.7% y/y in prior month
  • Average hourly wages of permanent employees are up 2.7% y/y in Nov., +2.4% y/y in prior month

In response to this stellar data, the USDCAD has plunged 100 pips, trading below 1.2800. With the loonie underperforming the major in recent weeks, is today’s data the basis for a major reversal?

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Here’s The Chart That Everyone Is Talking About (And Hoping Is Not ‘Real’)

While mainstream media eyes have been focused on wrecked tech stocks and towering trannies, professionals in the world's largest liquidity markets have been shocked at the sudden explosion in one chart… that most everyone is hoping is not 'real'.

With central banks puking money at low or negative rates to anyone who can fog a mirror, the sudden spike in EONIA, or overnight money rates in Europe, which we first highlighted yesterday, is quite a shock in a normally stable market.

EONIA has spiked from -36bps to -24bps in the last 2 days and the authority that 'manages' this index has verified this is not a 'fat finger'.

Traders everywhere are scratching their heads – here's why:

Bloomberg explains that EONIA is not a posted rate where banks would like to do business, such as Libor, but a weighted average index of actual trading in unsecured overnight money.

It's a real number, not an aspiration or an advertisement.

 

It hugs the European Central Bank's deposit rate, which is the fixed rate the ECB charges for commercial banks to place money with the central bank.

 

The fact that it measures reality might suggest that the recent jump signals a deep problem in one corner of Europe's financial plumbing.

 

The spike has to reflect bank-to-bank business; we can rule out transactions with the ECB because these are not included in the daily fix.

As Bloomberg notes, this naturally raises the question of who are the culprits. Certainly no institution is putting its hand up to claim responsibility.

The most likely explanation is a technical hitch, rather than some sudden crisis warning.

The cause of the spike could be a U.S. financial institution that has switched its year-end accounting period from Dec. 31 to Nov. 30.

 

This may have driven a sudden need for short-term liquidity, thereby causing a squeeze.It was month-end for many financial institutions on Thursday, on top of which we are approaching year-end periods, when cash and collateral rates often get squeezed.

 

A bit of indigestion shouldn't be a surprise. But a move this big is.

Here is Citi's take: An extraterrestrial with only visibility of the Eonia fixing, familiar with the traditional relationship between Eonia and ECB depo rate, could mistakenly conclude the ECB has gone for a mini rate hike or withdrawn significantly amounts of liquidity from the Eurosystem over the last two days.

Alas, excess liquidity sits around EUR1.85tn still and ECB tightening is at a minimum 9 months (if not longer) away as the Governing Council has clearly telegraphed an orderly sequenced approach which will first see ECB asset purchases continue until September 2018.

Wednesday's EONIA fixing (coming in around 6 bps higher than expected at -30.1 bps) caused mild excitement yesterday with a flurry of activity in the Eonia market. Market participants resigned to a quiet end to the year saw 1w – 3m trade 0.6-1 bps higher. Last night's month-end whopper (coming in some 10bps higher than expected at -24.1bps) has unnerved the Eonia market further this morning with 1w-3m another 1-1.5 bps higher as the first fixing is recalibrated and receivers begin to worry how much longer this apparent insanity will persist.

Ultimately little is known about the cause of the higher fixing of late at this stage (but the EMMI confirmed the accuracy of Wednesday's fix yesterday i.e. no fat finger).

There tends to be some seasonality in the Eonia prints but nothing was expected for this time of year and of such magnitude.

Unsecured overnight EUR volumes have dwindled in the last few years, with the average being a mere 7-8 bn (this year) on which a volume weighted average rate is calculated, so it would not take much to move the needle. There are two explanations:

1. There is a new participant in the Eonia market desperate for liquidity and paying a hefty price (possibly who missed out at the weekly MRO). This seems to be supported by the relatively elevated volumes in the last few days (vs the few weeks prior and in comparison to the last few month-ends for the November 30 number). In this scenario higher fixes could persist until next Wednesday with the possibility of relief by going to the weekly MRO on Tuesday should said counterparty be eligible.

 

2. The existing trades are going through at a higher levels on average. This is the fear driving the whole curve higher and would be a sustained/permanent move.

In summary, our view is this is only a technical issue for the EONIA market (although no-one can say if it is temporary or permanent at this time) and underlying fundamentals of European money markets remain unchanged (with repo rates unshaken thus far) so all spreads to Eonia should adjust accordingly (i.e. FRA/EONIA should compress, Schatz/Eonia should widen). We expect limited passthrough to 3M Euribor although lazy longs in front ER contracts may suffer from opportunistic selling/liquidation. The 10:05 publication requires close attention to assess the actual impact. Fwiw, the range of the fixing has been -33.2 bps to -32.8 bps while the 3M Eonia high low has been -36.2 bps to -35 bps over the same period.

*  *  *
So far there has been no contagion other than very heavy volume in December Euribor contracts.

In order to get a grip on whether this is technical or not, traders will be eagerly watching today's fix, which will come around 1:00 p.m. New York time, to see if the high prints disappear as we enter a new trading month.

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Bitcoin Surges After CFTC Greenlights Futures Trading: First Trade To Take Place Dec.18

Bitcoin is back over $10,000 after the the CFTC confirmed what had been previously reported, namely that it would allow bitcoin futures to trade on two exchanges, the CME and CBOE Futures Exchange, also granting the Cantor Exchange permission to trade a contract for bitcoin binary options.

The CFTC announced that through a process known as “self-certification,” CME and Cboe stated that their contracts comply with U.S. law and CFTC regulations. The US commodity regulator also said that the it held “rigorous discussions” with the exchanges that resulted in improvements to the contracts’ designs and settlement.

As to when the first bitcoin futures will cross the tape, the CME said it has self-certified the initial listing of its bitcoin futures to launch Monday, December 18, 2017.

Bitcoin, a virtual currency, is a commodity unlike any the Commission has dealt with in the past,” said CFTC Chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo. “As a result, we have had extensive discussions with the exchanges regarding the proposed contracts, and CME, CFE and Cantor have agreed to significant enhancements to protect customers and maintain orderly markets. In working with the Commission, CME, CFE and Cantor have set an appropriate standard for oversight over these bitcoin contracts given the CFTC’s limited statutory ability to oversee the cash market for bitcoin.”

Market participants should take note that the relatively nascent underlying cash markets and exchanges for bitcoin remain largely unregulated markets over which the CFTC has limited statutory authority. There are concerns about the price volatility and trading practices of participants in these markets. We expect that the futures exchanges, through information sharing agreements, will be monitoring the trading activity on the relevant cash platforms for potential impacts on the futures contracts’ price discovery process, including potential market manipulation and market dislocations due to flash rallies and crashes and trading outages. Nevertheless, investors should be aware of the potentially high level of volatility and risk in trading these contracts.”

In response to the news, Bitcoin has surged back over $10,000…

… and lifted the entire crypto space higher.

Some more details from the press release:

As trading on these DCMs evolves, the Commission will continue to assess whether further changes are required to the contract design and settlement processes and work with the DCMs to effect any changes.

 

Once the contracts are launched, Commission staff will engage in a variety of risk-monitoring activities.  These activities include monitoring and analyzing the size and development of the market, positions and changes in positions over time, open interest, initial margin requirements, and variation margin payments, as well as stress testing positions.  Commission staff will additionally conduct reviews of designated contract markets, derivatives clearing organizations (DCOs), clearing firms and individual traders involved in trading and clearing bitcoin futures.

 

The CFTC will also work closely with the National Futures Association (NFA). NFA has issued an investor advisory on this topic to its members, including futures commission merchants and introducing brokers that are involved in the trading of any virtual currency futures product, and will closely monitor its member firms trading this product. If the Commission determines that the margin the DCOs hold against bitcoin futures positions is inadequate, it can take measures to require that the margin held at the DCOs be increased, including requiring that they use a longer margin period of risk to generate margin requirements.

 

As with all contracts offered through Commission-regulated exchanges and cleared through Commission-regulated clearinghouses, the completion of the processes described above is not a Commission approval. It does not constitute a Commission endorsement of the use or value of virtual currency products or derivatives.  It is incumbent on market participants to conduct appropriate due diligence to determine the particular appropriateness of these products, which at times have exhibited extreme volatility and unique risks.

 

The Commission, pursuant to its statutory mission, will continue to foster open, transparent, competitive and financially sound markets. The CFTC will monitor markets and work closely with the exchanges to avoid systemic risk and to protect market users and their funds, consumers and the public from fraud, manipulation and abusive practices related to products that are subject to the Commodity Exchange Act.

In other news, it is yet to be determined what initial and variation margin the CME/CBOE will demand for bitcoin trades.

* * *

So what does the start of bitcoin futures trading mean? Here is one explanation as posted last night from DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas:

What will the entrance of futures exchanges and bitcoin contracts do to the price?

 

Both the CME and CBOE are set to launch bitcoin futures soon, and today the NASDAQ threw its hat in the ring as well. Moving bitcoin into a regulated structure will allow more sorts of investors and traders to speculate on price moves in the currency. That, the thinking goes, should be good for bitcoin prices.

 

One intriguing point: shorting bitcoin is currently a clunky process, but futures markets will make it much easier. The difficulty of shorting bitcoin has been an underappreciated feature of its meteoric rise, limiting true price discovery. Whether anyone is brave enough to put on a sizable short position remains to be seen. But someone who wants to back up their “Bitcoin is a fraud” talk with dollars will soon have a place to express their viewpoint.

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Movie Review: Disaster Artist: New at Reason

James Franco Watching The Disaster Artist, James Franco’s new movie about the making of the wonderfully horrible cult film The Room, is not a lot unlike watching The Room itself. Especially if you’re watching it with a theater full of people who’ve seen that 2003 picture—perhaps many times more than once—and can shout out whole clumps of dialogue from it. At midnight screenings in major cities where the movie has been attracting devotees for more than a decade, footballs fly down the aisles and cheap plastic spoons fill the air, along with hooted echoes of the movie’s many deathless lines. (“You are tearing me apart, Lisa!” “I definitely have breast cancer.” “Hi doggy.”)

As written, produced and directed by its star, the entirely untalented Tommy Wiseau, The Room is an aggressively awful film. It has no redeeming virtues: Its plot, its dialogue, its performances, its wretched scene-blocking—all are very bad. And so The Disaster Artist, directed by its star, James Franco, immediately prompts comparison to Ed Wood, Tim Burton’s 1994 tribute to the creator of Glen or Glenda, Plan 9 from Outer Space, and many other entertainingly terrible movies. But Wood’s complete lack of talent (if not passion) was compounded by a paucity of money for making his films. Wiseau does not have this problem: Among the several mysteries surrounding the man (how old is he? What planet is he from?), the most intriguing is the source of his money, of which he has lots. And yet, as loaded as he may be, he still made a cruddy movie. Which makes him an even worse filmmaker than Ed Wood. Which is really, really saying something, writes Kurt Loder in his latest review for Reason.

View this article.

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John Kerry: Israel And Saudi Arabia Urged A Preemptive US Strike On Iran Prior To Nuclear Deal

Former Secretary of State John Kerry revealed earlier this week that just prior to negotiations on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the leaders of Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia pushed hard for the US to preemptively strike Iran. Kerry divulged the information during a panel discussion at a nuclear weapons reduction forum at Washington National Cathedral on Tuesday where he defended the deal, saying those that wanted harsher action would have led the nation into another major Middle East war.

Kerry described the lead up to the deal as involving intense and aggressive lobbying toward military escalation by the three countries, whose leaders attempted to personally intervene. “Each of them said to me: You have to bomb Iran, it’s the only thing they are going to understand,” Kerry related at Tuesday's forum. 

He further explained, “I remember that conversation with President Mubarak. I looked at him and said: It’s easy for you to say. We go bomb them and I bet you’ll be the first guy out there the next day to criticize us for doing it. And he went: ‘Of course, ha-ha-ha-ha!’”

Kerry also identified Benjamin Netanyahu as taking a clear lead role in pushing for direct military action against Iran, saying, “It was a trap in a lot of ways. But more importantly, Prime Minister Netanyahu was genuinely agitating towards action.”

Though it's not clear exactly when these exchanges took place, Kerry chaired the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2006-2013 before his term as Secretary of State under Obama. This was also the same post-Iraq invasion period that regime change in Syria was being openly discussed. Syria has long been seen as Iran's closest ally and as constituting a key potential geographic land bridge linking Shia allies from Iran and Iraq to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has heightened its rhetoric against Iran of late, claiming that the Shia dominant Islamic Republic is establishing a permanent military presence in war ravaged Syria in support of the Assad government and Hezbollah – an intolerable scenario which Netanyahu has called "a red line".

“You have to bomb Iran, it’s the only thing they are going to understand… Prime Minister Netanyahu was genuinely agitating towards action.” Kerry's statements on Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia begin at the 51:00 minute mark.

As once again recently confirmed at an emergency session of the Arab League held in Cairo two weeks ago, Iran is currently being scapegoated by Israel and Saudi Arabia for just about all tensions which have recently exploded in an increasingly volatile Middle East, including the civil war in Yemen, Houthi missile attacks on Riyadh, inter-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) infighting, the Hezbollah "takeover" of Lebanon, as well as the sectarian war in Syria. However, as Kerry has consistently said over the past year, "Iran deserves the benefits of deal they struck."

And at the very least Kerry's disclosure of Israel and Saudi Arabia's constant warmongering confirms that these two increasing allies (as their newly revealed intelligence sharing relationship confirms) are not "victims" of Iranian aggression – as they've consistently claimed – but are themselves the aggressors, given their lobbying the Obama administration for a Bush-style 'preemptive strike' on Tehran.

During the nuclear weapons reduction forum on Tuesday Kerry further warned that without the deal Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt would be currently locked in a nuclear arms race, and the region would be much closer to outbreak of major war. But increasingly, the region's current covert proxy wars threaten to break out into full blown overt wars at the moment ISIS is being defeated and as the regime change project targeting Syria has failed.

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Frontrunning: December 1

  • Tillerson, Cohn Could Leave White House in Wave of Senior Departures (WSJ)
  • Senate grapples with tax cut plan’s impact on deficit (Reuters)
  • Here’s Where the GOP Tax Plan Stands Right Now (BBG)
  • Markets ignore best European factory data in 17 years (Reuters)
  • Tax Debate Plays Out in TV Ads Targeting Key States Across U.S. (BBG)
  • Hedge Fund Tips for 2018: Oil at $80, No End to Technology Boom (BBG)
  • China’s Tech Giants Have a Second Job: Helping Beijing Spy on Its People (WSJ)
  • As OPEC extends output cuts, Asia turns to North America for more oil (Reuters)
  • MIT Study Suggests the U.S. Is Vastly Overstating Its Oil Output Forecasts (BBG)
  • Bitcoin pauses below record peak; gained 55 percent in November (Reuters)
  • Tudor Will Shutter Discretionary Macro Fund in Restructuring (BBG)
  • Export-Import Bank on Track to Be a Drain on Taxpayers Next Year (WSJ)
  • Short Sellers May Be Fueling China’s Worst Bond Rout in Four Years (BBG)
  • Uber Investor Shervin Pishevar Accused of Sexual Misconduct by Multiple Women (BBG)
  • Tezos founders push for legal bailout from Swiss foundation (Reuters)
  • Warehouses Are Getting Bigger, Taller, Faster (BBG)
  • Germany removes Tesla from subsidies list as too pricey (Reuters)
  • How to Make a Killing Off Those Smug Instagram Hipsters (BBG)
  • Turkey hopes gold trader Zarrab will ‘turn back from mistake’, PM says (Reuters)
  • Mattis Warns He Won’t Accept Any Flawed Boeing Tankers (BBG)
  • This $15 Ticket Buys What Tesla Fans Have Waited 20 Months For (BBG)
  • British Labour leader Corbyn tells Morgan Stanley: ‘We’re a threat’ (Reuters)
  • The Unlikely Strategy Behind Buffett’s Investments in Encyclopedias (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Verizon Communications Inc plans to start selling home broadband service over its wireless network in late 2018, a move to challenge the cable industry’s grip on Americans’ internet access. on.wsj.com/2j4Mdso

– CVS Health Corp is moving closer to a deal to buy Aetna Inc for more than $66 billion in cash and stock. The deal could be announced by Monday. on.wsj.com/2BpJuQX

– Volkswagen AG’s VW brand announced plans Thursday to build one or two electric vehicles in the United States by 2023, probably at its Chattanooga factory, as tougher emissions rules drive the global auto industry toward mass production of battery powered cars. on.wsj.com/2j6uzo1

– Accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers said it accepted a payment in bitcoin for its advisory services, its first in a virtual currency. on.wsj.com/2j4n5Cd

– Blue Apron Holdings Inc said its co-founder Matt Salzberg would step down as chief executive and be replaced by Chief Financial Officer Brad Dickerson. on.wsj.com/2j4Dab1

– Walt Disney Co sued Redbox in an attempt to stop the DVD rental company from selling digital copies of its movies. on.wsj.com/2j5ASZa

– The Donald Trump administration is considering a plan to formally recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and to move the U.S. embassy there in the future, U.S. officials said. on.wsj.com/2j6KeDM

 

FT

General Motors Co aims to launch a public ride-sharing service across several cities that uses fully self-driving cars by 2019, potentially becoming the first traditional carmaker to deploy autonomous technology at scale in the real world.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc has closed the “bad bank” it created to handle a vast pile of toxic assets after the financial crisis nine years ago, having racked up cumulative losses of more than 50 billion pounds from the unit.

The head of UBS Group AG has lashed out against regulators’ efforts to rein in bankers’ pay, arguing that the push is fuelled by envy among less well paid officials and risked stoking the populist backlash against capitalism.

 

NYT

– Blue Apron Holdings Inc co-founder Matt Salzberg is stepping down as chief executive and being replaced with Chief Financial Officer Brad Dickerson. nyti.ms/2BB1Xe6

– OPEC and other major oil producers wrapped up a deal on Thursday to extend output cuts through the end of 2018, part of efforts to bolster prices. nyti.ms/2BzHWVx

– Matt Lauer expressed “sorrow and regret for the pain I have caused” in a statement, his first public comments after NBC News fired the star “Today” show anchor amid allegations of inappropriate sexual behavior with colleagues. nyti.ms/2jBxncj

– Time Inc announced it had sold the Sunset magazine to Regent, a private equity firm run by a Californian. nyti.ms/2i4OQJT

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Keyera Corp is selling C$429.4 million ($334 million) in shares to repay debt and fund growth, the latest infrastructure company to tap markets as crude prices edge up. tgam.ca/2kdGCmY

** The Ontario government is increasing its mandate for ethanol in gasoline to 10 percent from the current 5 percent requirement, as part of its effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions from fuels. tgam.ca/2kf8oPO

** General Motors Co is scaling back production of passenger cars at its Oshawa, Ontario, plant in the first quarter of 2018 as North American drivers abandon their cars in favour of crossover utility vehicles. tgam.ca/2kf58Ek

NATIONAL POST

** General Motors Co is hoping to be a leader in the race to bring autonomous vehicles to the road, unveiling plans to bring a self-driving, ride-sharing fleet to big U.S. cities in 2019. bit.ly/2kf8zLe

** Timothy Moseley, a former litigator at the Ontario Securities Commission who built a career as a senior bank compliance and litigation executive before returning to the regulator as a commissioner in 2015, is expected to be appointed to a two-year term as vice-chair of the OSC. bit.ly/2kfAyu1

** Canadian wireless customers are being advised to keep a close eye on their cell phone bills to ensure they’re not dinged with charges banned under the updated wireless code, which goes into effect Friday. bit.ly/2kf6ZJi

 

Britain

The Times

– The health service will curb treatment for conditions such as hearing loss and dementia after NHS Chief Executive Simon Stevens set out the first explicit limits on what patients should expect. bit.ly/2nj8ffD

– Senior Democratic Unionist Party figures threatened to bring down the government over Brexit on Thursday while telling European Union (EU) leaders to ignore Irish claims that the peace process could be undermined. bit.ly/2iuiGLP

The Guardian

– British utilities regulator Ofwat has dealt a further blow to Thames Water’s reputation by saying information issued by the company cannot be taken at face value. bit.ly/2BpsqdY

– The head of UberEats in Europe, Jambu Palaniappan, has become the latest senior executive to leave the company, as the ride-hailing arm of the business faces further pressure over its working practices in UK. bit.ly/2AmQjDt

The Telegraph

– Britain cannot afford to borrow more without putting the country’s financial stability at risk, a senior Bank of England official, Richard Sharp, has warned. bit.ly/2zT1mrc

– The British Business Bank has stepped in to support a new technology fund, Episode 1 Ventures, after the EU’s investment agency denied it cash in the wake of last year’s Brexit vote. bit.ly/2njxJte

Sky News

– Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn attacked the U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley following the firm’s warning over the consequences of his party winning power. bit.ly/2j6cma6

– Prime Minister Theresa May has launched her first direct condemnation of U.S. President Donald Trump, saying she is “very clear that re-tweeting from Britain First was the wrong thing to do”. bit.ly/2AnD1H6

 

 

via http://ift.tt/2AoRsuw Tyler Durden