Neil Gorsuch and Samuel Alito Butt Heads Over the Fourth Amendment, Again

A major split seems to be developing between conservative justices Neil Gorsuch and Samuel Alito over the issue of property rights and the Fourth Amendment.

The most recent evidence of this division came on January 9, when the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Bryd v. United States. This case arose in 2014, when a woman named Natasha Reed rented a car and allowed her fiancé, Terrence Bryd, to drive it in violation of her rental contract, which listed her as the sole authorized driver. When the state police stopped Bryd for a minor traffic infraction, the officer searched the trunk and discovered heroin and several flak jackets. Bryd is fighting to have that evidence thrown out as the fruits of an illegal search.

The question presented to the Supreme Court is this: “The Fourth Amendment protects people from suspicionless searches of places and effects in which they have a reasonable expectation of privacy. Does a driver in sole possession of a rental vehicle reasonably expect privacy in the vehicle where he has the renter’s permission to drive the vehicle but is not listed as an authorized driver on the rental agreement?”

During the oral arguments, Justice Neil Gorsuch observed that Bryd’s lawyer, Robert Loeb, had offered a property rights theory “on which you might prevail.” That theory, “essentially as I understand it,” Gorsuch said, is “that possession is good title against everybody except for people with superior title.”

“We think the property interest here, the right that…Mr. Byrd would have had to bring a trespass action,” Loeb replied, “demands a recognition of his right to invoke the Fourth Amendment.”

In other words, Byrd had “possession” of the car under common law principles. If, while driving it, somebody else tried to break in and steal it from him, he would have a common law right “to bring a trespass action,” as Loeb put it, against that would-be thief. In this case, the trespasser is law enforcement, which, absent probable cause, has no authority to search the trunk.

Justice Samuel Alito apparently did not like the sound of that. “The problem with going down this property route is that we go off in search of a type of case that almost never arose…at common law, where an unauthorized sub-bailee brings an action for trespass to chattel against a law enforcement officer. When would that ever have happened in 18th-century America? Never.”

Loeb pushed back on Alito’s characterization. “It’s your right to bring trespass action against a stranger,” he told Alito. “The fact that you can exclude a stranger and bring a trespass action against him is what supports your property right under the Constitution.”

A few minutes later, Alito tried to poke another hole in the property rights theory that Gorsuch had seemingly endorsed.

“The Constitution uses the word ‘property’ numerous times,” Alito told Loeb, “but the word ‘property’ doesn’t appear in the Fourth Amendment. It talks about effects, which is defined by Samuel Johnson’s dictionary as ‘goods or movables.’… Is it your argument that any property interest whatsoever falls within the definition of effects if we are going to go back to an originalist interpretation of the Fourth Amendment?”

“I think if the common law recognizes your [right],” Loeb replied, “then both under the common law and common sense, that it makes sense to recognize a right to invoke a Fourth Amendment right.”

Gorsuch remained quiet during those exchanges between Alito and Loeb. But he spoke up again in favor of the property rights theory during the second half of the oral arguments, when Assistant to the Attorney General Eric Feigin was presenting the government’s side of the case.


According to Feigin, Byrd, “like other unauthorized drivers, simply has no connection to the car at all.”

“Mr. Faigin, you keep saying that,” Gorsuch said, “but as a matter of property law, now and forever, a possessor would have a right to exclude other people but for those with better title. So someone in this position would have a right, I think you’d agree, to exclude someone who’s attempting to get in the car to hijack it, carjack it. You’d also have a right to throw out a hitchhiker who had overstayed his welcome….I think you’re having to argue that the government has a special license that doesn’t exist for any other stranger to the car.”

Feigin rejected that description of the government’s position.

“Do you agree that— that Mr. Byrd could have excluded a carjacker?” Gorsuch asked.

“I think by virtue of simply being in the car, he probably could have fended off a carjacker and we wouldn’t oppose his right to do so,” Feigin answered.

“By virtue of his possession he would have a right to do so,” Gorsuch corrected him. “And he would have a right to throw out a hitchhiker as well….So why not the government?”

To summarize: Gorsuch pushed a property rights theory of the Fourth Amendment that, if adopted by the Supreme Court, would cause the government to lose this case and plenty of others. Alito promptly spoke up in opposition to that theory. A little bit later, Gorsuch advanced the theory again in greater detail.

If that dynamic sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve already seen it once before. In the November 2017 oral arguments in the warrantless cell phone records search case Carpenter v. United Staes, as I noted at the time, “Gorsuch proffered a property rights argument that might allow Carpenter to win the case, and Alito came out swinging hard against it.”

I suspect that Gorsuch and Alito’s battles over this issue are just getting started.

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Michael Wolff Kicked Off “Morning Joe” By Mika Brzezinski Mid-Interview

The anti-Trump “resistance” appears to be turning on itself.

On Thurdsay morning, in a rare example of the antipathy many journalists feels torward “Fire and Fire” author Michael Wolff, MSNBC co-host Mika Brzezinski abruptly cut off her interview with Wolff on Morning Joe, after the author of the scandalous, if largely fictional, “tell all” book of the Trump presidency, said he never suggested that U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley had an affair with President Donald Trump.

To that Brzezinski replied, “You might be having a fun time playing a little game dancing around this, but you’re slurring a woman. It’s disgraceful.”

“We’re done” the Morning Joe then cut off the interview.

The exchange comes after Wolff recently appeared on Real Time With Bill Maher, where he said he was “absolutely sure” the president was having an affair with someone, and alluded to who that person was in one paragraph of his White House tell-all—that person being Haley, according to the Daily Beast. In the following days, Haley – a former South Carolina governor – has vehemently denied any relationship with Trump.

Minutes after Wolff was kicked off, he tweeted: “the President is right about Mika”…

… followed by: “The last time I was on Morning Joe off camera Joe and Mika eager to gossip about who Trump might be sleeping with.”

As a reminder, Trump slammed Mika for being “low IQ” and “crazy” among other things.

Clip below:

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US Manufacturing Drops (Or Rises) In January As New Orders, Jobs Plunge (Or Surge)

US Manufacturing, according to Markit, is at its strongest since March 2015 (as Services hits a 9-mo low) helped by strong new orders, employment, and output.

However, according to PMI, Manufacturing slipped to 59.1 with a tumble in New Orders.

Take your pick…

 

However, one small fly in the exuberant Markit PMI ointment is that for the thirteenth month running, vendor performance deteriorated as capacity pressures at suppliers led to longer lead times. Purchasing activity rose at the quickest rate since September 2014, stretching supply chains, and pre-production inventories accumulated at the fastest pace in twelve months.

Commenting on the exuberant final PMI data for January, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“US manufacturing started 2018 in fine fettle, with the PMI up to its highest for over two-and-a-half years. Output growth accelerated in response to fuller order books, the latter buoyed by the twin drivers of robust domestic demand and rising exports.

Factory payroll growth remained among the highest seen over the past three years, underscoring the bullish mood evident across the manufacturing sector.

Pricing power is also returning as a result of strengthening demand, which should help bolster profit margins, but is likely to also feed through to higher consumer prices.

“The acceleration of manufacturing growth and upward price trends are grist to the mill for Fed hawks, adding to the likelihood of interest rates rising in March.

However, ISM completely disagreed with PMI, noting a big drop in new orders and employment…

 

Not exactly what PMI suggested…

 

 

But still, for ISM, there was just one negative respondent out of nine…

  • “Sales nationally and internationally are strong in Q1. We are increasing our CapEx spend by 30 percent to 40 percent over [the] previous year.” (Chemical Products)
  • “We have heard reports of additional business due to the recent reduction of tax rates.” (Machinery)
  • “Business outlook is positive on all fronts right now with our customers. Budgets are being approved for new projects, and component prices from suppliers have temporarily stabilized.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Our usual winter slowdown has not occurred, and we are very busy with new orders.” (Furniture & Related Products)
  • “Slow start to 2018; pricing on metals is heading up and quotes/orders are picking up as well.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Overall, business remains steady. With several key programs to begin ramping up in the industry, outlook looks good for calendar year 2018.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Employment is very tight in our area.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Business continues to strengthen.” (Paper Products)
  • “Business is starting the new year strong. Consumer confidence seems to be driving a lot of our customers’ order requirements higher.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)

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Albert Edwards: “It Feels Similar To Just Before The 1987 crash”

Add SocGen’s grouchy permabear Albert Edwards to the growing list of bond bears. In his latest letter, the SocGen strategist echoes what we have said over the past week, namely that equities are wobbling as yields rise above key threshold levels, and says that he agrees “with the bond bears that US yields will continue to rise, causing more problems for equities” … with one footnote, a predictable one: “I do not believe bond yields have yet seen a secular bottom. I repeat my forecast that US 10y yields will fall below zero.

He is right: once the current infatuation with the reflation impulse is over which has been made possible by a record drop in the US savings rate offset by a historic surge in credit card usage – a carbon copy of what happened in 2011 when the ECB went so far as to hike rates assuming the recovery was here, and unleashing the worst debt crisis in European history – central banks will revert to doing what they do best: nationalizing capital markets and crushing savers with financial repression, the likes of which have not been seen yet.

In any case, it’s good to see that despite his recent vacation to Jamaica, Edwards’ gloomy disposition is right where he left it back in gloomy London, and as he admits “I can reassure readers I am restored to my bearish best.”

Edwards’ bearish sentiment was only boosted by this week’s market performance, to which he offers the following commentary:

So used are we to the relentless rise of the equity markets, seemingly without pause, this mini-tremor actually felt like an earthquake. But maybe this is the start of something more.

Maybe indeed, because in the very next sentence Edwards goes all out: “Certainly, as we explained at our Conference, the current conjuncture feels similar to just before the 1987 equity crash. All that was missing was the slanging match over the weak dollar between the US and Europe, but we duly got that while I was away.”

Ah yes, the dollar, but before the trade wars truly begin, everyone is watching something else: the yield on the 10Y, where Edwards differs from the consensus we observed earlier, and believes that a bull market will only truly start once yields rise above 3.00%:

Every man, woman and child seems to have decided that the US 10y bond yield has broken out of its long-term downtrend and we are in a bond bear market. Our own excellent Technical Analyst, Stephanie Aymes, shows that 3% (not 2.6%) is the key long-term breakout yield we should be watching. But she thinks that 2.64% was also significant as this means the RSI downtrend has now been broken (see bottom panel in chart below) and a run to 3% is now perfectly plausible. That though does not mean the bond bull market is over.

Edwards then decides to take a shot at the “great rotators” out of equity and into debt noting that…

With much anticipation the US 10y bond yield broke the critical 2.6% many regard as key to defining whether the current bull market is still intact or not (see left-hand chart below). With yields now closing on 2¾% and the 30y closing on 3.0%, many see this as a great time to dump bonds and switch into equities.

… however, he cautions that “this might not be so wise (see right-hand chart below):

Why? Because, quoting Stephanie Pomboy and showing our chart from yesterday, Edwards points that according to the MacroMavens economist, “stock prices are now be the biggest threat to the economy – even more than the Fed. Heaven forbid the market ever goes down”. (The latest monthly reading just out shows a further surge above previous peaks – see right-hand chart below.)

Edwards then points out something else we showed on Monday: all the spending growth is thanks to a plunge in US personal savings:

US consumer spending growth is running way above growth in real average hourly (or weekly) earnings (see below). This gap is sustained by a slumping savings ratio, not jobs growth.

Then, taking a hint from yet another post on ZH – ironically also referencing 1987 and David Rosenberg’s math on the latest GDP print – Edwards again highlights the “shocking slump” in the household saving ratio (SR) from 3.3% in Q3 to 2.6% in Q4, and also quotes Rosenberg saying that “without this decline in the SR, consumer spending would have only risen a paltry 0.8% in Q4 against an actual rise of 3.8%, and GDP would have risen only by 0.6% against an actual out-turn of 2.6%!” This quickly leads to the next rant:

The Fed’s easy money policies have driven household net wealth to new highs and the SR has fallen hand in hand in the last two years. The US has now got double bubble trouble (ie bubbles in both corporate and household debt). Just like 2007, this is another economic boom fuelled by an unsustainable credit bubble that will inevitably blow up with a rooky Fed Chairman in place.”

So in conclusion, Edwards’ deflationary “Ice Age” is still with us, and eventually US rates will tumble, ultimately turning negative. “Why do I think yields could go negative?” Edwards asks rhetorically? “Well I expect that the true extent of how close the US is to actual outright deflation, and hence how high real yields currently are, will soon be
revealed. But before US 10y yields turn negative, expect them to visit 3% first.

And somewhere in the sequence of events, the SocGen strategist expects the crash of 1987 to make a repeat appearance. And why not: until just a few days ago, the stock market had its best start of the year since, well, 1987. It’s what happened later in the year, however, that matters more.

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The Best And Worst Performing Assets Of January 2018

It’s the start of a new month, which means Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid is out with his monthly review of the best and worst performing assets (excerpt cryptos) and everything in between.

For the most part, Reid notes, 2018 so far has picked up where 2017 ended with most risk assets delivering solid single digit returns. Partly boosted by the US tax reform developments, the S&P 500 extended its consecutive run of monthly gains to an incredible 15 months dating back to November 2016. Of note: January 2018 was actually the strongest month in total return terms during that run. All this comes even despite the month-end wobble partly caused by a selloff across government bonds, which largely dominate (along with credit) the bottom of the total return leaderboard.

In summary out of the 39 assets in DB’s sample, 27 finished with a positive total return in local currency terms while 33 did so in USD terms. Clearly the latter reflects some big moves in FX markets this year so far with the likes of the Euro, Sterling and Yen up +3.4%, +5.0% and +3.2% respectively versus the USD.

Digging into performance in more detail, higher beta equity markets dominate the top of leaderboard. Indeed in local currency terms the top 6 are dominated by the Bovespa (+11.1%), Hang Seng (+9.9%), Greek Athex (+9.5%), Russian Micex (+8.6%), MSCI EM equities (+8.3%) and FTSE MIB (+7.9%).

The S&P 500 (+5.7%) is only slightly behind however while European equity markets – although still positive – have generally lagged other markets. The Stoxx 600 returned +1.7%, DAX +2.1%, Portugal General +3.4% and IBEX +4.5%. Returns do however look more respectable in USD terms as you’ll see. It’s worth noting that the move in yields has helped European banks return +5.1%. Also worth highlighting was the relatively weak performance for the FTSE 100 (-2.0%) in January with the rise in Sterling.

With regards to bonds, with the exception of the periphery where BTPs (+0.4%) and Spanish Bonds (+1.1%) just about closed with a positive total return, core markets delivered negative returns with Bunds -1.0%, Treasuries -1.5% and Gilts -2.1%. That weighed on credit although returns were closer to flat in Europe (EU Fin Sub +0.2%, IG Non-Fin -0.3% and Fin Sen -0.3%) reflecting a solid month of tightening with US markets also beating Treasuries (Fin Sen -0.9%, IG Corp -1.1%, IG Non-Fin -1.1%). It’s worth highlighting that HY had a stronger month helped by being shorter in duration, with both EU and US +0.4% in total return terms.

Finally for commodities, January was largely a positive month. WTI Oil tops the list with a +7.1% rally while Wheat (+5.8%) follows closely. Gold and Silver prices were up +3.2% and +2.4% while the laggard was Copper (-3.2%).

Here is the visual breakdown of January returns in local currency, and USD terms.

Source: Deutsche Bank

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QE – The Gift That Just Kept Giving – Is Now Taking…

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

I know the Federal Reserve doesn’t effectively create money or directly monetize.  I know this because then Fed chief, Ben Bernanke, told us so (HERE).  But still, something has me wondering about that exchange, now almost a decade ago.  The simplest of math.

The plan to utilize quantitative easing and avoid direct monetization went like this.  The Fed would buy the Treasury debt and Mortgage Backed Securities (remove assets from the market) from the big banks.  However, the Fed would force those banks to deposit the new money at the Federal Reserve.  This would avoid the trillions of newly created dollars from going in search of the remaining assets (particularly levered from somewhere between 5x’s to 10x’s…turning a trillion into five to 10 trillion…or far more).

The chart below shows the Federal Reserve balance sheet (red line) and the quantity of those newly created dollars that the recipients of those dollars, the banks, deposited at the Federal Reserve (blue line).  But the green line is the quantity of newly created dollars that have “leaked” out…also known as “monetized”.

 

What is so interesting is the interplay of QE and excess reserves…resulting in the peak QE impact taking effect long after QE was tapered and had ceased.  The trillions in assets remaining with the Fed, but the new cash went looking.

 

The impact of $800+ billion of pure monetization from late 2014 through year end 2016 was spectacular.  In the hands of the largest banks (multiplied by “conservative” leverage somewhere between 5 to 10x’s) could easily amount to trillions in new cash looking for assets.  A “bull market” beyond belief should not have been surprising.

The chart below shows the Wilshire 5000 in red representing all US equities actively traded, national disposable personal income in blue (all forms of income after taxation), and the net monetization in yellow.  The “bubbles” of ’01 and ’08 pale in comparison to the present explosion.  However, the increase in income represented by DPI does not justify the increase.  However, when the unlevered quantity of monetization is added, the picture is more interesting.

 

And the same variables and chart below, but focused on ’08 until ’18.  The jogs in the monetization subsequently followed by the Wilshire are probably noteworthy…but the most recent decline in available monetization hasn’t materialized in the Wilshire…at least not yet.

 

However, that change since 2017 should begin to effect the market in 2018.  The change in flow from the declining Federal Reserve balance sheet coupled with fast rising interest payments on Excess Reserves (billions for the banks for not taking any risk, not making any loans to keep the cash locked away) should help to hold the Excess Reserves from declining any faster than the Fed’s balance sheet reduction.

 

This cessation of “leakage” of new money coupled with extreme lows in savings, extreme valuations in asset values vis-à-vis disposable incomes (detailed HERE), and decelerating deficits with rising interest rates (detailed HERE) does not likely add up to a positive outlook.

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A.M. Links: Democrats Say Republicans Secretly Altered ‘Nunes Memo,’ U.S. Olympic Committee Reportedly Knew About Nassar Allegations in 2015, Polish Senate Passes Law Banning Holocaust Accusations Against Poles

  • Rep. Adam B. Schiff, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, has accused the committee’s Republican chair, Rep. Devin Nunes, of secretly altering the so-called Nunes memo, which alleges FBI surveillance abuses, before giving the memo to the White House.
  • The FBI says it has “grave concerns” about the accuracy of the Nunes memo.
  • The Polish Senate has passed a bill that would make it illegal to make accusations of complicity in the Holocaust against Polish people.
  • The U.S. Olympic Committee reportedly knew about sexual-abuse allegations against Larry Nassar as early as 2015.
  • Mark Corallo, former spokesman for President Donald Trump’s legal team, is reportedly planning to tell Special Counsel Robert Mueller “about a previously undisclosed conference call with Mr. Trump and Hope Hicks, the White House communications director, according to the three people. Mr. Corallo planned to tell investigators that Ms. Hicks said during the call that emails written by Donald Trump Jr. before the Trump Tower meeting — in which the younger Mr. Trump said he was eager to receive political dirt about Mrs. Clinton from the Russians — ‘will never get out.’ That left Mr. Corallo with concerns that Ms. Hicks could be contemplating obstructing justice, the people said.”
  • Los Angeles County Sheriff’s officials say the actor Robert Wagner is a “person of interest” in the investigation into the 1981 death of actor Natalie Woods. Wagner and Woods were married at the time of her death.

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter, and don’t forget to sign up for Reason’s daily updates for more content.

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US Worker Productivity Slumped In Q4

For the first time since Q1 2016, US Worker Productivity declined in Q4 2017, after accelerating for three straight quarters.

The headline measure of nonfarm business employee output per hour decreased at 0.1% annualized rate (est. 0.7% gain) after a downwardly revised 2.7% gain in previous three months.

Unit labor costs rose at 2% annualized rate (est. 0.9% gain) following 0.1% decline.

 

As Blkoomberg warns, the data reinforce the trend of relatively paltry gains since the last recession ended, limiting the scope for economic growth to pick up without causing an unwanted acceleration in inflation. For the full year, productivity rose 1.2 percent, in line with the pace over the last decade.

The latest report also underscores that productivity figures can be volatile from quarter to quarter, and that the underlying trend may not have changed much despite the third quarter registering the fastest increase since early 2015.

Incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that labor-force participation and productivity gains are key to lifting the sustainable rate of expansion in the world’s largest economy. Without a boost in productivity, President Donald Trump may find it difficult for growth to meet his 3 percent goal.

A modest silver-lining shows that among manufacturers, productivity rose at a 5.7% pace in the fourth quarter, most since 2010, rebounding from a 4.9% decline in the prior quarter. Productivity in sector was up 1.1% from year earlier.

However, adjusted for inflation, hourly earnings fell at a 1.8 percent annualized pace after a 0.6 percent increase.

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DAX Breaks Key Technical Support As Bund Yields Soar

It’s not just ‘Murica where bonds and stocks are falling together. As German 10Y Yields spike to their highest since September 2015…

 

 

So the DAX has just broken down below its 50-day moving average…

 

The DAX is now up just 1.6% YTD after being up as much as 5.3% a week ago.

Get back to work Mr.Draghi.

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NAFTA Withdrawal Would Undermine Tax Reform Gains: New at Reason

ShippingLast year’s massive tax code overhaul lowered corporate income tax rates to an internationally competitive level for the first time in decades. U.S.-based businesses can now compete against their foreign counterparts without starting from an immediate disadvantage, thanks to Uncle Sam. The change should result in faster growth, higher wages and more jobs. Unfortunately, those gains may be undone this year with a wrong step on trade.

Take the Trump administration’s recent decision to impose tariffs on washing machines and solar panels from Chinese and South Korean manufacturers. The cost to consumers could rise to a level where buying a washer isn’t worth the price. News reports mention similar measures being imposed on aluminum and steel imports.

Yet no matter how costly these protectionist moves are, their effects pale in comparison with what the impact would be if we withdrew from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), writes Veronique de Rugy.

View this article.

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