Chicago PMI Tumbles To 6-Month Lows

After a disappointing drop (and miss) in January, Chicago PMI tumbled further (from 65.7 to 61.9) as US macro data continues to serially disappointed in recent weeks.

Against expectations of a small drop to 64.1, Chicago PMI in February dropped to 61.9 – below even the lowest of economist estimates (forecast range 62 – 68.1 from 30 economists surveyed).

None of the subcomponents rose in February.

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Employment rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Production rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Order backlogs rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

This is the lowest print since August 2017.

As the chart above shows, US economic data has been disappointing so far in 2018 and this Chicago print merely piles on the narrative that the short-term exuberance of an apparently global synchronous recovery are fading fast…

As China’s credit impulse lags aways…

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Deputy Who Failed to Engage Parkland Shooter Could Get $52,000 Pension for Life

When a former student opened fire on pupils and teachers last week at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, school resource officer Scot Peterson was on duty. He was armed. He was at the school. Yet as security video released after the shooting that killed 17 people showed, he did not engage the shooter. It was one of a series of failures at various levels of government that allowed the shooter to carry out the heinous act.

Peterson, who resigned last week, he is likely to receive an annual pension of at least $52,000—and the actual total is likely higher, potentially close to $70,000. In addition, half his medical expenses will be covered by taxpayers.

If he lives to be 78, the average life expectancy for a man in Broward County, the currently 54-year-old Peterson stands to collect more than $1.24 million from Florida’s public pension system.

Understanding Peterson’s specific situation helps shed light on the broader implications of public retirement costs in Florida and around the country. An employee like Peterson, who was by all accounts a typical deputy in the sprawling Broward County Sheriff’s Office (BCSO) before his unfortunate rise to national prominence this month, is afforded a retirement package that kicks in at age 52 and allows him to collect a pension even if he pursues other work after his retirement. It’s vastly different from what most private sector workers can expect to receive. The difference is premised on the idea that Peterson put his life on the line in a high-risk profession.

The payouts are virtually guaranteed, regardless of performance in the line of duty. Under state law, pensions can be forfeited only after a conviction for a narrowly defined list of crimes.

Determining Peterson’s pension requires a bit of guesswork, since his first pension check won’t be cut by the Florida Retirement System for at least another month, and potentially longer if the BCSO tries to hold up those payments while its investigation into Peterson continues.

Here’s how I arrived at my numbers, which are based on publicly available information about Peterson, news accounts of his resignation, and interviews with Jim Bell, president of the union that represents members of the BCSO, and Lenard Gilroy, director of the pension integrity project for the Reason Foundation (which publishes this blog).

Peterson earned $75,673 in 2016, according to public records data obtained by the Sun-Sentinel. He had been working as the school resource officer at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School since 2009, and he had been an employee of the Broward County Sheriff’s Office since 1985, according to documents released by the sheriff’s office after Peterson’s resignation.

That means Peterson put in at least 25 years at the BCSO, an important threshold for accruing pension benefits under Florida law.

The pensions afforded to Florida’s sheriffs are based on a calculation that starts with an average of the employee’s five highest-paid years. That average is then multiplied by a percentage that varies based on how many years an employee has worked and at what job.

Law enforcement employees and other public employees in so-called “high-risk” positions earn a multiplier of 3 percent for every year worked. (Other public workers earn a lower multiplier, usually 2 percent.) After 25 years of service, for example, a law enforcement employee like Peterson would have earned a pension equal to 75 percent of the average of his five highest-paid years during his final 10 years of employment. Under Florida law, pension payouts are capped at 100 percent of this figure, which is known as a “final annual salary.”

“The pension benefit for first responders in the Florida Retirement System is generally consistent with other public safety systems across the country,” says Gilroy. “Using ‘high-5’ for the final average salary calculation is common too, and the overall benefit cap is designed to keep benefit accruals in check.”

Peterson’s earnings in other years remain unknown, but he’d spent at least nine years as a school resource officer and there’s nothing to suggest that 2016 was anything other than an average year for him. Assuming he’d eared slightly less in previous years (to allow for annual pay increases), we can safely project that Peterson earned around $70,000 on average during the last five years of his career with the BCSO.

With at least 25 years of service time, Peterson would qualify for a pension equal to 75 percent of this final annual salary—or $52,500.

This is the most conservative estimate of Peterson’s pension, which fails to take into account several factors likely to boost his eventual payout.

For starters, Peterson had worked more than 25 years for the BCSO. Still, the 25-year figure is important because it means that Peterson was fully vested in the pension system when he retired last Thursday and could immediately begin drawing a pension.

After 25 years of service, Peterson could have continued to accrue pension benefits in the same manner as before. In that case, his 32 years of service would qualify him for a pension of about $67,000 annually (assuming a $70,000 final average salary and a 3 percent multiplier with 32 years of service).

Alternatively, Peterson could have enrolled in a so-called DROP (Deferred Retirement Option Plan) program after 25 years with the BCSO. If so, his retirement benefit would have been capped when he entered the DROP program—capped, therefore, at 75 percent if he’d entered in the first year he was eligible—but he would be able to collect, at retirement, a lump sum payment equal to the contributions he deferred while continuing to work.

Opting into a DROP program can increase or decrease the amount of retirement benefits paid to a public employee, depending on a number of factors, such as how long the employee lives after retiring. (DROP program recipients get a bigger payout up front and relatively smaller monthly amounts.) Still, they wouldn’t exist if they weren’t beneficial to the retirees—and the number of cities, including Dallas and Philadelphia, that have been financially stressed by DROP programs should indicate which side usually benefits from them.

Regardless of whether Peterson used the DROP program or not, he could have padded his pension payout with other bonuses that factor into the calculation of a “final average salary,” thus inflating the rest of the pension calculation. In 2016, for example, Peterson’s salary of $75,643 was boosted to a final total of $101,000 with overtime and other bonuses, according to the Sun-Sentinel.

It’s also possible that Peterson was enrolled in Florida’s relatively new 401(k)-style retirement program, which would make it virtually impossible to determine how much his retirement benefits will be. Gilroy believes it’s unlikely that an employee who had been with the BCSO since the 1980s would be enrolled in anything other than the traditional pension plan. Florida passed a law in 2017 to automatically enroll most new hires in the 401(k)-style program, which shields taxpayers from excessive pension costs, but law enforcement employees were exempted from that provision and continue to be enrolled in the old pension system unless they choose otherwise.

Bell, the union president, says he encourages new hires to opt into the traditional pension. He did not know which plan Peterson was using.

In either pension system, Peterson will be eligible to have half his medical expenses covered for the rest of his life.

“If you leave the agency in good standing after 25 years of service here,” says Bell, “the sheriff’s office will pay 50 percent of your health benefits for the rest of your life.”

Could Peterson lose his pension as a result of his botched response to the school shooting? That seems unlikely. Under Florida law, public pensions can be revoked for felony offenses that “breach the public trust.” The specific crimes on the list are related to embezzlement, theft, bribery, and child sexual assault only.

Bell says the sheriff’s office could hold up pension payments because of the pending investigation into Peterson’s conduct.

“But at the end of the day, there’s really nothing they can do to take those benefits,” Bell says, “because he’s already resigned.”

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Trump Border Wall Greenlit By Hispanic “Trump-Hating” California Judge

Authored by Seraphim Hanisch via TheDuran.com,

While media highlighted Trump’s alleged racism, Judge Curiel actually is on record for being pretty impartial and balanced, as Tuesday’s ruling shows…

Judge Gonzalo Curiel, US Federal judge of the Southern District of California, has greenlit the construction of part of President Donald Trump’s border wall with Mexico. This announcement is somewhat of a surprise for the mainstream press, who reported and criticized Trump for being racist in his comments about the judge.

Between the years of 2014 and 2016, Judge Curiel was trying a lawsuit against Trump University, which was being sued for alleged fraud on behalf of three students. At the time of the US Presidential Election, Mr. Trump accused Judge Curiel of being a “Trump hater” during the campaign, and this sort of rhetoric gained a lot of criticism for Candidate Trump as being a racist for saying things like “[Curiel] happens to be, we believe, Mexican, which is great. I think that’s fine…” but also expressing the thought that the judge’s ethnicity would lead him to oppose the matter of US-Mexico border security.

As it turned out, in matters not covered very widely by the press, Judge Curiel actually postponed some court proceedings to avoid a “media frenzy” just before the Presidential election. Further, this was to prevent damage to the impartiality of the jurors in the case. Later, after the election was over, President-elect Trump’s attorneys asked Judge Curiel to delay the case until after the presidential inauguration in 2017. The Judge denied this request, but at the same time, he also urged the suing parties to pursue a settlement, and for that purpose recruited District Judge Jeffrey Miller to facilitate the settlement talks. By November 18th, 2016, all three plaintiffs had agreed to settle, and Curiel certified this decision.

As it has turned out, Judge Curiel has actually been on record as ruling for things in favor or preferable to President Trump’s agenda more than not. Actually, too in June of 2016, Candidate Trump had issued a statement noting that his remarks about Mr. Curiel were misconstrued.

Judge Curiel’s ruling about the border wall was in response to a lawsuit brought by the State of California, arguing that the wall would violate environmental laws. However, the judge’s ruling did not go with the will of the State, and instead has fast-tracked several operations, including the waiver of some 30 building laws and environmental restrictions for the building of prototype walls outside San Diego, and also approval to replace 18 miles of existing barriers.

The US Justice Department hailed the Judge’s ruling on February 27th, emphasizing that border security is an issue of paramount importance.

And in typical fashion, President Trump himself weighed in:

So, this was probably a bit of a shock for the MSM press, but a welcome victory for the Trump agenda, which appears to be gaining steam as successes begin to build upon one another.

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D.C. Struggles to Get Replacement Parts for Its Disastrous Streetcar

The District of Columbia’s streetcar has been nothing but a headache for local officials—and taxpayers—ever since it was proposed nearly two decades ago.

At the time, the District Department of Transportation (DDOT) envisioned a 7.2-mile line servicing the low-income neighborhood of Anacostia. Instead, the city ended up building a 2.2-mile line servicing the bars and shops along H Street.

Now, on the two-year anniversary of the streetcar’s much-delayed opening, city staff foresee increased trouble getting their hands on the spare parts they need to maintain their current fleet. One of their vendors has gone out of business and the other is located outside the country, so “parts availability will continue to be limited in the future,” according to the officials who testified to the city council’s Transportation and Environment Committee yesterday.

These supply chain problems may require the system to reverse-engineer parts and create new supply chains, which DDOT officials say would be a “costly endeavor.” As a result, the department will explore a “strategy for future vehicle acquisition that also considers the feasibility of disposal of the current fleet.” In other words, they might junk their current set of streetcars.

The typical streetcar should last at least 25 years, according to the Federal Transit Administration.

DDOT spokesperson Terry Owens tells The Washington Post that the department has no present plans to scrap its fleet. It is, he says, considering the purchase of new vehicles for planned extension lines (the city plans to expand its current 2.2-mile line west to the city’s Georgetown neighborhood and east out toward Benning Road), and it is “evaluating the vehicles currently in service to determine the best fleet management approach to achieve the system’s performance goals.”

Should “best fleet management” lead D.C. to replace its current vehicles before they reach the end of their useful lives, it would be another black eye for a streetcar system that has faced continual delays, cost overruns, and constant goalpost shifting.

The initial setback came in 2002, when plans for the 7.2-mile line in Anacostia were scuttled after promised financial support from the Washington Metropolitan Area Transportation Agency (WMATA) fell through.

In response, DDOT downsized its ambitions, instead proposing a 2.7-mile “demonstration line” along existing freight rail tracks owned by the rail company CSX, to be completed in 2006. This plan also faltered when negotiations with CSX reached an impasse.

In 2008, DDOT took another bite at the apple, attempting to build a line at street grade from Bolling Air Force Base to a Pennsylvania Avenue stop in Anacostia. This plan fell apart when both the military and WMATA took issue with DDOT’s plans, resulting in the department spending $20 million on .8 miles of unusable track.

Undeterred, in 2009 DDOT announced plans for a whole 37-mile streetcar network with lines running throughout the entire city. It also decided to shift the initial construction of the line from Anacostia to the H Street corridor. Since roadwork in the corridor was already underway, officials reasoned that it would be easier to lay tracks at the same tim, and have the streetcar up and running by March 2012.

This decision proved costly, as the district rushed forward with construction before designs for the H Street line were finalized. The result was yet more delays, cost overruns, and minor accidents, as test streetcars—placed very close to existing street parking—hit parked cars, including a police car.

That March 2012 deadline slipped to late 2012. That date proved too ambitious as well, with the H Street line not opening until 2016.

Some $200 million was spent building the line, which carries roughly 3,000 weekday riders.

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Woman Arrested for Cop Killing Her Child, Google Bans Sale of Sex Pistols Merchandise, Oakland Tips Off Locals to ICE Raid Plans: A.M. Links

  • A Baton Rouge baby was killed after a local cop caused a car crash. The child’s mother has since been arrested for negligent homicide—the same charge the cop who triggered the crash faces—for allegedly having failed to properly adjust the child’s car seat straps for her height.
  • In a shocking and rare example of Oakland authorities doing something right, Mayor Libby Schaaf warned residents that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) would be conducting raids on Tuesday night, a move which ICE has blamed for some deportees being able to elude the agency.
  • Google has stopped advertising shopping results for “pistols,” which turns out to be bad news for a certain 70s punk band.

  • An Alabama whistleblower was arrested on dubious charges just a few days after criticizing Etowah County Sheriff Todd Entrekin in a news article.
  • “People who came from where I did, and who were given the thoughts I was given, should know that the future can be different from the past,” writes Quinn Norton, who was recently hired and then fired from The New York Times editorial board after an internet uproar over old comments she had made online and her friendship with an infamous neo-Nazi.
  • Phoebe Maltz Bovy and Katie Herzog have an interesting chat on social-media dysfunction, cultural taboos, and “trying to be less of an asshole on Twitter”:

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter, and don’t forget to sign up for Reason’s daily updates for more content.

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Gartman Is Short Again

Ahead of yesterday plunge in the market, which saw the Dow Jones close at sessions lows, down 300 points with the S&P wiping out Monday’s rally, Gartman appeared to have given algos the all clear to short when as we reported having covered his “market short” just one two days earlier, Gartman was now “modestly net long of equity on balance.”

This was clearly a warning for the bulls, and a greenlight for the bears: after all, the only thing that matters in this market is the “world-renowned commodity guru” Dennis Gartman.

Well, fast forward just a few hours, when we have not only more bad news for the bears (and conversely, great news for bulls), but also an explanation why stocks are set to open well in the green: Gartman is back to a “severely net short position.”  No really.

From the latest Gartman letter:

Clearly we have wanted to be bearish of equities for the past several weeks, having sold the global equity market short two weeks ago on the first rally from the low. We were wrong; the market, globally, moved against us, although it did so on waning, not rising volume. We were short because we were convinced that the economic strength in global terms… and especially in terms of the US market… was running into one very real problem: the fuel that had been  supplied to equities in the form of reserves created by the monetary authorities was being reduced even at the time when the demand for plant/equipment and labor was high and rising. Historically, the great bear markets always begin in the weeks and perhaps months before the economies in question turn from good to ill, for stock market are anticipatory in nature, rising before economies turn up and falling before they turn lower. We are at the latter turning point.

Note then how swiftly the volume advanced yesterday, sufficiently to break through the downward sloping trend line drawn across the tops of the volume figures. This was not just happenstance; this was and is fact and attention… very, very serious and bearish attention… must be paid.

Regarding our retirement account, we came into yesterday marginally net long but we were so only by being long of the shares of the largest independent bank in Tidewater, Virginia and by being long of the shares of a business development company and the shares of an energy trust, both of which were bought for their dividends primarily. We began the day long of small position in gold, and we’d hedged those positions with derivatives sufficient, we thought, to have us only very marginally long; however, as the day ended we increased our short derivatives position sufficient in size to have us end marginally net short.

And the punchline:

It is our intention to add to our derivatives position and to reduce our long positions on any… modest… strength in the equity market today, sufficient to take us to a rather more severely net short position. This is the hardest thing one can do in one’s investing/trading life: to have been right; to have been stopped out and to be forced to return to the original position at prices markedly worse, but we’ve really no choice.

Time to buy.

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Frontrunning: February 28

  • Dick’s Raises Age for Gun Buyers, Won’t Sell Assault Weapons (WSJ)
  • How Defective Guns Became the Only Product That Can’t Be Recalled (BBG)
  • The First Day of School After Florida Shooting (WSJ)
  • NFL Partners With Pizza Hut After Split With Papa John’s (WSJ)
  • Manafort Joined Trump as Ukraine Work Dried Up (BBG)
  • Summers Warns Next U.S. Recession Could Outlast Previous One (BBG)
  • GM Is Raking In the Cash (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs, Adviser to the Elite, Wants to Be Your Local Bank (WSJ)
  • U.S. regulators examine Wall Street’s Volcker rule wish list (Reuters)
  • State Health Policies Show Stark Divide Along Party Lines (WSJ)
  • In Syria, Foreign Powers’ Scramble for Influence Intensifies (WSJ)
  • Mogul Is $13 Billion Richer After Leaving NYC for China (BBG)
  • China’s military flexes muscles for domestic objective: more funding (Reuters)
  • Lowe’s Punished by Investors for Not Growing Like Home Depot (BBG)
  • Cyprus’s Anastasiades says no peace talks as natgas standoff persists (Reuters)
  • Big Short’s Eisman Says U.S. Bank Outlook Is Best Since 1990s (BBG)
  • Forecasts for Oil Prices Rise for Fifth-Straight Month (WSJ)
  • Musk’s Dream of Space-Based Internet Sent Others Crashing to Earth (BBG)
  • Bayer to win EU approval for $62.5 billion Monsanto deal (Reuters)

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Amazon.com Inc acquired Ring, maker of video doorbells, in a deal valued at more than $1 billion, giving the online giant a bigger foothold in the burgeoning internet business of home security. on.wsj.com/2HQ7KzX

– The White House downgraded the security clearance of senior adviser Jared Kushner last week as part of White House chief of staff John Kelly’s push to tighten control of classified information inside the Trump administration. on.wsj.com/2HSCWhS

– Senior White House adviser Jared Kushner’s spokesman Josh Raffel is leaving the White House, administration officials said Tuesday, becoming the latest official to depart the West Wing. on.wsj.com/2HS9NU7

– The Trump administration said it has reached an initial deal with Boeing Co to buy and convert two jumbo jets to replace the aging planes that fly as Air Force One. on.wsj.com/2HRriUj

– North Korea shipped 50 tons of supplies to Syria for use in building what is suspected to be an industrial-scale chemical weapons factory, according to intelligence information cited in a confidential United Nations report. on.wsj.com/2HRs0Rt

 

FT

– Michel Barnier, EU’s top Brexit negotiator, hit out at David Davis for avoiding talks in Brussels. Barnier told EU27 ministers in Brussels that the talks were “in a form of stagnation”.

– U.S. cable operator Comcast Corp made a surprise bid for Sky Plc that values it at 22.1 billion pounds. Buying Sky would give it a powerful footprint in the UK, Germany and Italy, where Sky has 23 million subscribers.

– Standard Chartered Plc, after two years of capital rebuilding, restarted its dividend as the bank returns to profit.

– Provident Financial Plc’s shares soared on Tuesday as the sub-prime lender tapped investors for 300 mln pounds in fresh funds via a rights issue and announced a lower than expected settlement with the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

NYT

– Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, lost his top-secret clearance, a White House official and another person familiar with the situation said. nyti.ms/2ovrnFd

– Companies like Delta Air Lines Inc have found themselves facing conservative backlash as they become mired in the gun control debate, highlighting the challenge of catering to both ends of the U.S. political spectrum. nyti.ms/2FdfRbm

– Amazon.com Inc said Tuesday that it had acquired Ring, a maker of internet-connected doorbells and cameras, pushing more deeply into the home security market. nyti.ms/2ovyiOJ

– Comcast Corp may have found a way to disrupt Walt Disney Co’s plan to buy most of Twenty-First Century Fox Inc by topping Fox’s bid to buy the British satellite broadcaster Sky Plc with its own $31 billion takeover offer. nyti.ms/2CLEias

– Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his first public appearance as head of the U.S. central bank, said his expectations for domestic economic growth have increased since the beginning of the year, citing the passage of the $1.5 trillion tax cut and stronger global growth. nyti.ms/2t46ZQc

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL
** The federal government says it is open to granting charitable status to media companies, which would allow them to receive tax-deductible donations to support investigative and public-interest journalism. tgam.ca/2CsaUdG

** Canada’s top securities regulator is turning up the heat on a small Ontario marijuana producer after it failed to disclose to investors that its chief executive officer is under investigation for his actions at another company. tgam.ca/2GSu62p

** B.C. is suspending rules for its money-losing public auto insurer that are designed to ensure it has enough capital to make payouts, raising the prospect that the government will have to bail it out. tgam.ca/2oASHRG

NATIONAL POST
** The small business tax revolt that rocked Canadian politics for much of last year has resulted in a simpler and scaled-back proposal for taxing passive investment income, and it appears likely to calm the concerns from tax experts. bit.ly/2EYpBqr

 

Britain

The Times

– Cities in Germany have been given the green light to ban older diesel cars in a court ruling likely to have a far-reaching impact on resale values and the fuel’s long-term future. bit.ly/2GOuhM0

– Smaller British development agencies have dismissed 67 aid workers and other staff for sexual misconduct. Figures supplied to the Times by 11 overseas aid charities showed that they had dealt with 120 cases of sexual exploitation or harassment. bit.ly/2GOt6fv

The Guardian

– Comcast Corp is attempting to gatecrash Rupert Murdoch’s takeover of Sky Plc, submitting a rival offer to the UK broadcaster’s shareholders worth about 22 billion pounds ($30.59 billion). bit.ly/2GPnaD4

The Telegraph

– Britain’s demand for gas is set to surge to its highest level in over six years this week as freezing temperatures take hold across the country. bit.ly/2GMXcQM

– The government must share the blame for the bungling of a multi-billion pound nuclear clean-up contract after failing to protect taxpayers from spiralling costs, MPs have said. bit.ly/2GPAG9G

Sky News

– Nearly 6,000 retail sector jobs are hanging in the balance on Tuesday night as the UK arm of Toys R Us and electricals chain Maplin prepare to call in administrators. bit.ly/2GOupeF

– Liam Fox has defended the government’s Brexit plans by saying UK’s departure from the European Union is “a little bit more complicated than a packet of Walkers”. bit.ly/2GP5Oq5

The Independent

– Beer sold across UK’s supermarkets and off-licences is almost 188 percent more affordable today than it was three decades ago, supporting calls for greater legislation to relieve pressure on health services, new research has revealed. ind.pn/2GLKcuD

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Pizza Hut Will Replace Papa John’s As “Official Pizza” Of The NFL

It’s been barely 12 hours since Papa John’s CEO John Schnatter revealed during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call that it had officially ended its relationship with the NFL – and already the league has found a replacement.

Pizza Hut said – and the league confirmed – that the fast-food pizza brand will replace Papa John’s as NGL sponsor and “official pizza” of the NFL. The multi-year deal will start with the NFL’s 2018 draft.

The deal will include the collective use of all 32 team markets. Schnatter said yesterday that, while the brand would be ending its partnership with the league after withdrawing advertising late last year, it will continue to honor its partnerships with individual teams and players.

Pizza

Despite the news, shares of Pizza Hut owner Yum Brands ticked lower in premarket trading.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell praised Pizza Hut and said he was looking forward to working with the brand.

“With a focus on family, friends and fun, Pizza Hut has the creativity we are looking for in a partner and we look forward to working together with them to make the at-home NFL experience more exciting than ever for our fans,” NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said Wednesday.

As Dominoes continues to outmaneuver its competitors in the fast-food pizza space, Pizza Hut has been aggressively discounting its pizzas, rolling out contests and offering new rewards since the beginning of the year as it tries to wrestle market share from competitors, CNBC pointed out. During the Super Bowl, for example, the chain said it would give away free medium two-topping pizzas to Hut Reward members if the record for the fastest touchdown was broken.

Papa John’s shares plunged in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company announced its plans to sever ties with the league, while also reporting revenues that missed Wall Street expectations.

Pizza

 

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VIX Flash-Crashes On GDP Print

Seconds after the US government released its latest guess at what Q4 GDP growth looked like (in line with expectations), VIX suddenly flash-crashed from above 18 to 15.65, only to immediately scream back higher as if nothing happened…

 

Of course that flash-crash sparked instant momentum in stocks to ‘prove’ how great the economy is doing…

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Q4 GDP Revised Lower To 2.5% Despite Stronger Spending

In what may be the most unremarkable GDP revision in years, moments ago the BEA revised its initial Q4 2017 GDP estimate from 2.6% to 2.5%, lowering the number by fractions of a basis point, to 2.530% specifically, and in line with estimates.

According to the Dept of Commerce, the downward revision reflected a downward revision to consumer spending on goods, and a small downward revision to inventory investment. These downward revisions were partly offset by upward revisions to consumer spending on services and to housing investment.

The revision lower took place even though personal consumption, measured by PCE, rose at a 3.8% annualized rate, higher than the 3.6% estimate, and unchanged from last quarter despite reports that showed a sharp drop in retail sales to close the year. Core PCE was also in line with both expectations and the initial estimate at 1.9%.

Nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property rose 6.6% in 4Q after rising 4.7% prior quarter, if also barely changed from the initial estimate. .

Other revisions were similarly de minimis, with private inventories barely moving (from -0.67% to -0.70%), Net Trade also stayed the same as in the initial estimate, the same as government consumption.

The changes, or lack thereof, are shown in the chart below.

Overall, there were virtually no changes to talk about, and with the data clearly well in the rearview mirror, the question the market is focused on is what will Q1 GDP be when it is reported in 2 months time.

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