With the dollar dumping on the double whammy of CPI and Rex Tillerson; stocks, bonds, and gold are all surging as stocks open. The S&P 500 topped 2,800 for the first time since Feb 2nd…
The dollar was smacked down…
And Stocks, Bonds, & Gold are surging…
And as Goldman Sachs writes, as the macro backdrop has evolved, so has “safe haven” performance.
After initially moving together during the bond sell-off beginning in September, Treasuries have decoupled from gold, the Yen and the Swiss Franc. This is in contrast to the positive correlations we observed in early 2017, when we highlighted volatility differences.
No safe havens – and no assets or equity sectors – have had a positive beta to the VIX recently, and few have had a positive beta to 10-year yields (notably, equity cyclicals have had a positive beta to 10y yields), leading to diversification desperation.
We think it likely that finding effective hedges in the cash space will continue to be difficult going forward as rates rise and Goldilocks fades, and that active risk management via derivative overlay trades will become more important for portfolios.
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