Days after Paul Ryan reportedly laughed off rumors (allegedly sourced by Politico from interviews with 30 friends, colleagues and confidants) that he won’t be running for re-election in November, a literal deluge of reports hit Wednesday morning suggesting that an announcement from the speaker about his plans to retire instead of running again in the fall is imminent.
While Axios was first to report it, Politico and CNN quickly confirmed.
.@SpeakerRyan will not seek re-election. Expected to address it in the closed-door GOP conference meeting this morning.
props to @jonathanvswan for the scoop
— Phil Mattingly (@Phil_Mattingly) April 11, 2018
CNN said Ryan is expected to address his plans during a closed-door meeting of the GOP conference Wednesday morning.
According to Axios, Ryan told a confidant he will soon announce that he won’t run for reelection in November. By not running, Ryan would essentially be quitting while he’s ahead since Democrats are expected to make significant gains in November, possibly even retaking the majorities in both chambers of Congress. The speaker apparently has little interest in serving as minority leader – a post he has never held.
In a separate report published shortly after Axios went to press with its story, Politico said Ryan told two colleagues on Wednesday morning that he isn’t planning to run in the fall.
One Republican insider told Axios that Ryan’s decision would benefit his colleague, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
One of Washington’s best-wired Republicans said:
“This is a Titanic, tectonic shift. … This is going to make every Republican donor believe the House can’t be held.” The announcement will help Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in his fundraising because “the Senate becomes the last bastion,” the Republican said.
Politico added that Steve Scalise – the Majority whip who was wounded during last year’s shooting at a Congressional baseball practice – would succeed Ryan as leader, bypassing Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Axios says Scalise and McCarthy are the two most likely candidates to succeed Ryan.
“Friends” of Ryan say he’s ready to leave Congress now that he’s passed tax reform – a longtime dream. He’s also tired of the endless frustration of working with President Trump. While there’s no “good” time to leave, Ryan says he might as well bow out while he’s on top – and that he’s ready to live as a private citizen.
Of course, Ryan, who was the Republicans’ Vice Presidential nominee in 2012, hasn’t ruled out another run for the country’s highest office.
Ryan’s exit would contrast mightily with that of the previous Republican speaker, John Boehner. Reports that Boehner would leave (or, more accurately, that he was being pushed out by a mutiny of conservative Republicans) dribbled out for months before the speaker made his announcement the day after Pope Francis made a papal address to Congress in 2015. Unlike Boehner – who resigned his seat before leaving Congress altogether – Ryan would remain as speaker until he leaves office at the beginning of the next Congress (that is, assuming these reports are accurate and that he really is planning to retire).
Of course, Ryan wouldn’t be alone in his decision not to run: Dozens of Republican lawmakers in competitive districts have opted not to run again rather than risk being crushed by a Democratic wave.
But there is one similarity between the circumstances surrounding Boehner and Ryan’s exits. Both stood up for a version of Republicanism that, ultimately, lost out.
Clash within the GOP between Ryan and Trump visions of party direction. Pretty clear which side has won.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) April 11, 2018
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