One can seek the reasons for today’s bullish, risk-on move in global stocks in the halt to the bond selloff, in strong earnings by SAP, Verizon and CAT, on a goldilocks increase in the price of oil (over $69, the highest since 2014), and so on, or alternatively one can assume that algos somehow got an advance look at what Dennis Gartman was going to say this morning in his latest letter to clients and trading accordingly.
In the very short term we can be and have been ever-so-slightly positive of stocks, but once again to make very certain that we are perfectly clear about our view on equities we are lifting whole clothe once more that which we had written last week… several times: That although we may be bullish of shares in the short run… because the CNN Fear & Greed Index has turned upward from single digit over-sold levels and nothing more… we are still very much certain that we’ve entered a longer term, bear market here in the US and abroad. We believe the highs made globally earlier this year when our International Index rose to 12,857 on January 29th are very nearly sacrosanct and likely shall not be seen again for quite some very long while into the future as each interim high since then has been lower as has each new interim low… or nearly so. We trust we are clear.
As for our retirement account here at TGL the only change we made was to take a very small short derivatives position early yesterday morning to focus our attention upon that side of the market; however, it was small enough only to force us to pay heed and nothing more. Otherwise, our positions are as they were last week: long of the shares of a business development company; long of a short duration bond fund; long of cotton via the cotton ETF and long of gold via a gold fund.
S&P futures were up 16 points shortly after Gartman’s note.
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