Following March’s big disappointment in BLS (and surge in ADP), perhaps today’s better than expected print for April of +204k (+198k exp) is less relevant than ever. Service-providing jobs rose 160k, goods-producing rose 44k, and March’s hot number was revised lower (from 241k to 228k).
Jobs rose in every cohort except “Information”…
“The labor market continues to maintain a steady pace of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.
“However, as the labor pool tightens it will become increasingly difficult for employers to find skilled talent. Job gains in the high-skilled professional and business services industry accounted for more than half of all jobs added this month. The construction industry, which also relies on skilled labor, continued its six month trend of steady job gains as well.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,
“Despite rising trade tensions, more volatile financial markets, and poor weather, businesses are adding a robust more than 200,000 jobs per month. At this pace, unemployment will soon be in the threes, which is rarified and risky territory, as the economy threatens to overheat.”
While all eyes are focused on ADP employment data today for a hint ahead of Friday’s payrolls print, we remind readers that March saw the biggest ‘miss’ in 7 years as ADP printed 138k higher than BLS’ version of reality…
In fact, as we have pointed out previously, something odd has happened since President Trump was elected – ADP is constantly over-optimistic relative to BLS data, the exact opposite of its regime during Obama’s tenure.
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