One of the catalyst cited by traders for yesterday’s late swoon in the market, was the unexpected news that Gartman had turned bullish again saying in his latest letter that “we’ve no choice but to err quietly bullish of shares generally.”
Gartman: “we’ve no choice but to err quietly bullish of shares generally.”
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 14, 2018
It probably did not take Gartman long to realize that his current trade recos are mutually conflicting: on one hand bullish stocks, on the other, pretending to still be short the 10Y, even though he was clearly stopped out on payrolls Friday when the 10Y dropped below his stop loss of 2.92%…
… a combination which as today’s market has shown means one or the other has to give – quiet simply, it is no longer possible to have stocks, yields, the dollar and oil all rising at the same time.
So one day after his latest flip-flop, what does the man who two months ago made a “watershed” call for a secular market top, think will happen next? Well, good news to the bears: he thinks that “this weakness shall not last long.”
STOCKS, IN GLOBAL TERMS, HAVE FINALLY FALLEN A BIT as seven of the ten markets comprising our International Index have fallen and as three have risen. None, however, have moved by anywhere near 1%, save for the market in Hong Kong where shares were down 0.9%; however, after the massive run to the upside that shares in Hong Kong have enjoyed over the course of the past week and one half as the Hang Seng has risen from 29,925 on the 4th of May to yesterday’s “closing” high of 31,515, or an increase of 5.3%, some correction… some consolidation… some profit taking it certainly to be expected.
The same… or very nearly the same… can be said of the US market where the S&P made its low of 2,630 on the 3rd of May and made its way to 2,730 as of last evening, or an increase of 3.8%; it is become a bit overbought and some consolidation is not only to be expected, it is perhaps almost mandatory.
Finally, to “prove” the near universality of the recent global strength in the equities markets, the markets in Europe collectively made their low on the 3rd of May also and have risen 1.8% over that same interval of time. Thus, this has indeed been a “collective,” well established bullish run in broad global terms and so a reasonably broad, “collective” consolidation is almost de rigueur.
What shall be the catalyst for this correction? The fact that the yield on the US ten-year treasury security is back above 3.00% shall be sufficient news to account for a bit of weakness. Too, the fact that commodity prices are rising and that inflationary pressures are making themselves known shall account for some of that weakness. Further, the uncertainty that a joint 5Star/Lega government installed in Rome shall account for some of the weakness in European shares. Further, still we can point to the confusion in Southeast Asia and the change in government in Malaysia as a reason for a correction, and further still, we can point to the problems in Venezuela and Argentina as yet another reason.
Finally, we note that the CNN Fear & Greed Index, which has fallen to single-digits several weeks ago marking a very serious over-sold level and which has since then risen to 54 as of last night’s close, has gone from inordinately low levels back to neutrality and is itself due for some consolidation… perhaps even a bit of correction.
In other words, there are reasons a ‘plenty from which a bit of international equity market weakness can and shall develop. Likely, this weakness shall not last long
Did the multi-decade bear market just start?
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