Following a week in which bond markets were tested once again, global newsflow quiets down modestly although growth expectations will be put to the test this week with the next round of monthly PMIs due. The latest Fed meeting minutes will also be closely scrutinized given some of the interesting statement changes earlier this month while the resumption of Brexit talks in Brussels and a meeting between the Presidents of South Korea and the US will also be worth keeping an eye on.
As Deutsche Bank’s Craig Nicol summarizes, the big data highlight for markets in the next 5 days are Wednesday’s flash May PMIs around the globe, including Japan’s manufacturing reading, and manufacturing, services and composite prints in Europe and the US. In terms of expectations, the consensus for the Eurozone manufacturing reading is 56.1, which follows the 56.2 reading in April and 60.6 high print back in December. The composite print for the Eurozone is expected to nudge down slightly to 54.9 from 51.1. So broadly stable month to month. The PMIs in the US are expected to fall slightly more though with the consensus for the manufacturing print being 56.1 following a 56.5 reading in April.
Away from the PMIs, other data worth highlighting next week is the April inflation data dump in the UK on Wednesday, where expectations are for a small drop in core CPI to +2.1% yoy from +2.3% in March. April retail sales data will also be out in the UK on Thursday before we then get a second reading of Q1 GDP on Friday (expected to reflect the +0.1% qoq flash print). In Germany, we also have second revisions to Q1 GDP on Thursday, as well as Friday’s May IFO survey. In the US, the calendar is mostly filled with second-tier releases, however, Friday’s flash April durable and capital goods orders data (core capital orders expected to rise +0.5% mom) will be important for shaping early Q2 GDP expectations.
Over at the Fed, there will be plenty of eyes on the FOMC minutes on Wednesday evening from the May 2nd meeting. As a reminder, the statement from that meeting moved incrementally in a more hawkish direction and also towards brevity. It also included use of the word ‘symmetry’ in relation to the 2% inflation objective, so it’ll be interesting to see if this is fleshed out at all. Indeed, our US economists saw the meeting statement as a first step towards altering the balance of risks language and expect to learn more from the minutes. As we know, since the minutes we have had some disappointing inflation readings in the US (CPI and average hourly earnings), however, bond yields have continued to march higher in line with inflation expectations.
As well as the minutes, there’s also plenty of Fedspeak scheduled again for next week. On Monday evening, we have Atlanta Fed President Bostic (neutral/ voter) speaking to the Atlanta Economic Club, followed a couple of hours later by Philadelphia Fed President Harker (neutral/non-voter) speaking at the CEO’s Financial Seminar for 2018 and the Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (dove/ non-voter) speaking at a moderated Q&A session in Michigan. On Thursday, NY Fed President Dudley (neutral/voter) then speaks at a BoE event in the morning alongside BoE Governor Carney, before Harker speaks again in the evening at a Labour Market event. Fed Chair Powell (neutral/voter) is then slated to speak on Friday at a Riksbank event in the afternoon before Dallas Fed President Kaplan (neutral/non-voter), Chicago Fed President Evans (dove/non-voter) and Bostic once again wrap things up on Friday afternoon, when they speak on a panel at a conference.
Finally, politics should continue to be a factor for markets next week. The next round of Brexit negotiations begin in Brussels on Tuesday before EU finance ministers gather to discuss developments on Friday. South Korean PresidentMoon Jae-in travels to meet President Trump in Washington on Tuesday ahead of likely talks between the US and North Korea. On Wednesday, the House Affairs Committee holds a hearing to question Mike Pompeo (Secretary of State) about President Trump’s foreign policy priorities. Then on Thursday Russia and Saudi Arabia’s energy ministers gather to discuss the US withdrawing from the Iran accord, while finally on Friday Russia President Putin hosts France President Macron, Japan PM Abe and the IMF’s Lagarde in a panel in St. Petersburg.
Next, also courtesy of DB, here is a breakdown of key events by day:
- Monday: A fairly quiet start to the week with the main highlights being the afternoon and evening Fedspeak when Bostic, Harker and Kashkari all speak separately. Datawise, the only releases scheduled are May house price data in the UK, April trade data in Japan and the April Chicago Fed national activity index in the US. The ECB’s Nowotny is also due to speak in the morning.
- Tuesday: Another fairly quiet day for data with April public finances data and May CBI selling prices in the UK the only prints due in the European session, while in the US the only release scheduled is the May Richmond Fed PMI. Politics should play a greater role with the next round of Brexit negotiations beginning in Brussels, and South Korea President Moon Jae-in due to visit Washington to meet President Trump.
- Wednesday: Things pick up on Wednesday with the highlight being the May PMIs across the globe. That includes the manufacturing print in Japan, as well as the manufacturing, services and composite prints in Europe and the US. Away from that, Q1 employment indicators in France and April CPI/RPI/PPI in the UK is due in the morning, while April new home sales in the US is due in the afternoon. The May consumer confidence print for the Euro area is also due in the afternoon, while in the evening the latest FOMC meeting minutes will be released. Also worth noting is the House Foreign Affairs Committee holding a hearing to question Secretary of State Mike Pompeo regarding Trump’s foreign policy priorities, and the European Commission publishing country specific recommendations for economic policy.
- Thursday: Overnight in Japan on Thursday we’re due to hear from the BoJ’s Sakurai, while the March leading index will also be out. During the European session, data due includes the final Q1 GDP revisions in Germany along with June consumer confidence, May confidence indicators in France and April retail sales data in the UK. In the US weekly initial jobless claims, Q1 house price purchase index, March FHFA house price index, April existing home sales and May Kansas City Fed PMI are all due. Over at the Fed, Dudley will speak in the morning, along with BoE Governor Carney, while in the evening Harker is due to speak again. It’s worth noting that Russia’s acting energy minister is due to discuss the US exit from the Iran accord with Saudi Arabia’s energy minister on Thursday.
- Friday: We end the week in Europe on Friday with the May IFO survey in Germany and preliminary Q1 GDP report in the UK, including the various growth components. In the US flash April durable and capital goods orders will likely be the highlight, while the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also due. Away from that, EU finance ministers are due to discuss the latest on Brexit negotiations, while Russia President Putin, France President Macron, Japan’s Abe and IMF’s Lagarde take part in a panel.
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Finally, here is Goldman with a focus only on the US, and consensus estimates, noting that key economic releases this week are the minutes from the May FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the durable goods report on Friday. There are several speeches from Fed officials this week, including one from Chairman Powell on Friday.
Monday, May 21
- 12:15 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will give a speech at the Atlanta Economic Club on “Welfare Economics: Trade & A Review of Principles.” Audience Q&A is expected.
- 02:05 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will give a speech at the Chief Executives Organization’s CEO Financial Seminar in New York. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
- 05:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated Q&A in Escanaba, Michigan. Audience Q&A is expected.
Tuesday, May 22
- 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing, May (consensus 8, last -3)
Wednesday, May 23
- 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 56.5, last 56.5)
- 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, May preliminary (consensus 54.8, last 54.6)
- 10:00 AM New home sales, April (GS -1.3%, consensus -2.2%, last +4.0%): We expect a 1.3% decline in new home sales in April, retracing less than half of its 4.0% March increase. The level of single-family building permits remains healthy, and while wintry weather could weigh on sales, Northeast region contract signings were already depressed in March (and seem likely to rebound).
- 02:00 PM Minutes from the May 1-2 FOMC meeting: At its May meeting, the FOMC left the funds rate target unchanged, as widely expected. The key changes in the post-meeting statement were the recognition of firmer inflation data and a greater emphasis on longer-run risks by changing the focus from “near-term risks” to simply “risks.” The Committee also added the word “symmetric” to describe its 2 percent inflation objective. We will look for a discussion of their assessment of risks to the outlook and path for monetary policy.
- 02:15 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated Q&A in North Dakota. Audience Q&A is expected.
Thursday, May 24
- 04:15 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give a speech on “Reference Rate Reform: Improving the Culture of FICC Markets” at the Bank of England’s 2018 Markets Forum. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 19 (GS 220k, consensus 220k, last 222k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 12 (consensus 1,750k, last 1,707k): We estimate initial jobless claims declined by 2k to 220k in the week ending May 19. The level of claims appears elevated in Kentucky and Missouri and the trend in jobless claims appears to be falling. Accordingly, we expect another very low reading. Continuing claims—the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs—fell to a 45-year low in the previous week, and the insured unemployment rate fell to its all-time low.
- 10:35 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will give opening remarks at a conference hosted by the Dallas Fed on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications for Business, Labor Markets, and Monetary Policy.”
- 10:00 AM Existing home sales, April (GS -0.8%, consensus -0.9%, last +1.1%): We look for a 0.8% pullback in April existing homes sales based on regional housing data, following the 1.1% rise in March. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
- 02:00 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will give a speech at the Dallas Fed’s conference on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications for Business, Labor Markets, and Monetary Policy,” focusing on the implications for the broader labor market. Audience Q&A is expected.
Friday, May 25
- 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, April preliminary (GS -1.0%, consensus -1.4%, last +2.6%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, April preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.1%); Core capital goods orders, April preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.4%); Core capital goods shipments, April preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.8%): We estimate durable goods orders pulled back 1.0% in the preliminary May report, after increasing 2.6% in the prior month on the back of firmer aircraft orders. We expect a firmer 0.5% increase in the durables ex-transportation category and +0.7% for core orders, as we see scope for reacceleration in unfilled orders, and industrials top-line results and commentary remain solid. We forecast a 0.6% rebound in core capital goods shipments, reflecting strong industrial production data.
- 09:20 AM Fed Chairman Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will participate in a panel on “Financial Stability and Central Bank Transparency” at a conference hosted by the Sveriges Riksbank titled “350 Years of Central Banking – The Past, The Present and The Future.” Audience Q&A is expected.
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May final (GS 98.6, consensus 98.8, last 98.8): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge down 0.2pp to 98.6—still a healthy level—in the final May estimate. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations remained down to 2.4%, after rebounding in the April final reading back to 2.5%.
- 11:45 AM Fed Presidents Bostic (FOMC voter), Evans (FOMC non-voter), and Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speak: Federal Reserve Presidents Bostic, Evans, and Kaplan will jointly participate on a panel at the Dallas Fed’s conference on “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications for Business, Labor Markets, and Monetary Policy.”
Source: DB, Goldman, BofA,
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