After a surprise tumble in July, preliminary August Durable Goods Orders were expected to rebound aggressively and rebound they did – jumping 4.5% MoM (+2.0%exp), the biggest jump since Feb ’18.
However, scratch below the surface and things are not nearly as positive as the headline suggests.
Durable Goods Ex Transportation rose just 0.1% MoM in August, the weakest growth since January…
Well below the 0.4% expected jump.
However, it gets worse, as Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense, Ex Aircraft – the main proxy for business spending – tumbled 0.5%
Tow more notable aspects – car production dropped but war spending surged again…
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Bookings for motor vehicles and parts fell 1 percent; communications equipment up 0.7 percent, computers and related products down 0.8 percent.
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Defense capital-goods orders jumped 44.4 percent, most since February.
Thank goodness we are at war in so many places!!
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