‘Day-Trading’ Trump Says “Today Looks Good For Stock Market”

While Presidents have traditionally shied away from commenting too much on the stock market, President Trump has been ‘unusual’ in his focus on the arbitrary measure of America’s success (or failure).

Having been quite for much of the month – as US equity markets collapse most since the financial crisis – Yesterday’s dead cat bounce along with today’s extension…

…has sparked renewed optimism in The White House:

“Stock Market up more than 400 points yesterday. Today looks to be another good one. Companies earnings are great!”

As Bloomberg notes, Trump has commented on the stock market more than 30 times since his election, the latest on Tuesday to blame Democrats for the October “pause” in markets. (The S&P 500 is down almost 9 percent in the month and lower for the year. It’s up more than 20 percent since his election.)

Source: Bloomberg

We wonder if President Trump will comment when this bounce dies and we test February lows once again?

via RSS https://ift.tt/2OgRE48 Tyler Durden

Facebook Purges Proud Boys And Gavin McInnes After New York Scuffle With Antifa

Facebook has been banning accounts and pages associated with the right-wing group, the Proud Boys, following an October scuffle with Antifa in New York City. 

Twitter users reported the Facebook take-downs on Tuesday, noting that both public and private accounts associated with the Proud Boys had vanished from the social media network, including founder Gavin McInnes, and a large account with over 20,000 members. 

A spokesperson for Facebook confirmed the bannings with Business Insider, pointing to the company’s rules and adding that the removal applies to Instagram as well. 

On October 12, the Proud Boys engaged in a fight with Antifa outside of the Metropolitan Republican Club, where the 49-year-old McInnes had given a speech that evening. Left-wing activists had protested the club’s decision to invite McInnes to speak for much of the week, making threatening phone calls in an attempt to convince them to cancel the event, according to club president Deborah Coughlin.

After the event a brawl erupted after a member of Antifa threw a bottle at the Proud Boys, ultimately resulting in the arrest of nine Proud Boys and three Antifa on charges of rioting, assault and attempted assault. 

One member of the group, Geoffrey Young, 38, was taken into custody Thursday night and charged with two misdemeanors: riot and attempted assault. The Manhattan district attorney’s office said in a complaint that Mr. Young punched one victim in the face, kicked a second in the stomach and kicked a third three times in the head.

In what she described as a “vicious, unrelenting attack,” a prosecutor, Jamie Kleidman, said in Manhattan Criminal Court on Friday that Mr. Young had “charged toward” six people believed to be protesters and was joined by about 10 other Proud Boys who “kicked, stomped and punched them.” –New York Times

The Proud Boys was founded in 2016 by McInnes – also a co-founder of Vice who is no longer affiliated with the magazine. Its members describe themselves as “Western Chauvinists,” while those on the left have called them a hate group. 

In a statement reported by BI, a Facebook spokesperson said: “Our team continues to study trends in organized hate and hate speech and works with partners to better understand hate organizations as they evolve. We ban these organizations and individuals from our platforms and also remove all praise and support when we become aware of it. We will continue to review content, Pages, and people that violate our policies, take action against hate speech and hate organizations to help keep our community safe.”

via RSS https://ift.tt/2yGiNsw Tyler Durden

China Vows More Stimulus With Economy On Verge Of Contraction

Overnight, China revealed the latest confirmation that its economy is slowing down when the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October – on the verge of a sub-50 contraction – down from 50.8 in September and below the 50.6 estimate. It was also the lowest number since July 2016 with almost all sub-indexes showing weaker growth momentum. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI also missed, printing at 53.9, and declining from 54.9 due to the weaker services PMI.

Commenting on the report, Goldman said that “growth faced increased downward pressures in the manufacturing sector” and highlighting the continued decline of trade-related indexes, noted that “weaker external demand has possibly weighed on activity growth in the manufacturing sector.”  Meanwhile, weaker auto sales also translated into soft auto manufacturing activities and dragged on overall manufacturing growth.

Goldman also blamed “slower property transactions” for the drop in the services PMI, which was further impacted by the the drop in the stock market : the NBS observed that the October PMI reading for the securities industry was the lowest this year, excluding the Chinese New Year months.

But most importantly, Goldman – as well as most China watchers – took the report to indicate further accommodative policy would be ushered in by Beijing to support contracting economic growth (Goldman expects one more RRR cut before the end of this year).

Perhaps hearing this request, on Wednesday China’s leadership vowed that further stimulus is being planned to prevent the broad slowdown from taking hold. Admitting that Beijing’s cocktail of fiscal and monetary stimulus has been behind the curve, a Wednesday Politburo meeting chaired by the president said that “downward pressure” is increasing, and the government needs to take timely measures to counter this.

“Changes are happening even though the economy is still stable. Downward pressure on the economy has grown, some companies have a large number of operational difficulties, and some risks and hazards that accumulated over a long time are revealing themselves” the Politburo statement said, promising to take preemptive action “in a timely manner.”

“The leadership is paying great attention to the problems, and will be more preemptive and take action in a timely manner,” according to the statement. The Politburo reiterated that China will maintain a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, while trying to find solutions to help private businesses.

And yet, despite its reluctant promises, China finds itself in a dilemma: any further monetary easing will devalue the Yuan below 7.00 against the dollar, a critical level to both the PBOC, and to the Trump trade hawks, who may see breach of the key level as confirmation of currency war and react appropriately. Meanwhile, further fiscal stimulus would mean even more debt in a nation which already has over 300% debt/GDP and has been grappling with periodic on again, off again deleveraging campaigns which have so fair in reducing China’s debt load.

And just in case stabilizing the economy was not enough, China has been grappling with a plunge in its stock market in recent months. Meanwhile, China’s economy continues to contract and Beijing needs to respond, or else suffer the worst possible outcome: social insurrection as millions of angry, unemployed workers find themselves without a job for an extended period of time.

In response, earlier this month, the government and central bank introduced a raft of measures to stabilize sentiment, adding to steps to boost liquidity in the financial system, tax deductions for households and targeted measures aimed at helping exporters. Alas, those measures have yet to have much effect.

“The spring of 2019 will be the real difficult time for China as multiple factors such as trade tension, slower sales of durable goods and the end of a property boom in lower-tier cities weigh on growth,” Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura International Ltd. in Hong Kong, said after the announcement. “It’ll be a test if China can sustain growth of around 6.5 percent. Policy makers are likely to further cut taxes and ease property purchase controls in bigger cities to lift the economy.”

“The spring of 2019 will be the real difficult time for China as multiple factors such as trade tension, slower sales of durable goods and the end of a property boom in lower-tier cities weigh on growth,” said Lu Ting, Nomura’s chief China economist. “It’ll be a test if China can sustain growth of around 6.5 percent. Policy makers are likely to further cut taxes and ease property purchase controls in bigger cities to lift the economy.”

China’s borderline contracting PMI numbers came just hours after South Korea reported that the a global economic contraction is increasingly taking hold, and just days after it reported the worst GDP print in 9 years, overnight South Korea doubled down with a shocking industrial output number, which tumbled 8.4%, far below the -5.4% consensus estimate, and the worst print since March 2009.

The contraction was pronounced in electronic parts (-7.8% mom sa) and electrical equipment (-6.0%). Together with autos (-4.8%), these accounted for around half of the sequential decline, and suggest that some of the highest value-added manufacturing sectors around the globe are suffering a sharp slowdown.

Meanwhile, with Asia’s two workhorse economies on the verge of economic contraction, Trump has threatened to take trade war with Beijing into overdrive by taxing all Chinese imports, a step which would have an adverse impact not only on China, but also on the US economy, which while having decoupled from the rest of the world in recent months, as confirmed most recently by the stronger than expected 3.5% Q3 GDP, is starting to show growing sign of slowdown.

Should the US economy join the malaise that has crippled the rest of the world, the only pillar left propping up the US stock market will be the strong corporate earnings. And judging by the sharp drop in stocks this month, traders are increasingly convinced that it is only a matter of time before the US market remains “pillarless.”

via RSS https://ift.tt/2Q3EhG5 Tyler Durden

US Employment Costs Soar At Fastest Pace In A Decade

US employment costs surged more than expected in Q3. Up 0.8% QoQ (equals the biggest quarterly jump since Q4 2017), as increases in private wages and salaries accelerated, perhaps signaling that workers are gaining leverage in a tightening labor market.

Wages & Salaries rose 0.9% QoQ (+2.9% QoQ) as benefits slowed (+0.8% QoQ from +0.9% in Q2, and +2.6% YoY vs +2.9% in Q2).

On a year-over-year basis, Q3 is up 2.8%, the biggest annual jump since Q3 2008…

Government wages rose 2.3% YoY vs Private Workers 3.1% YoY gain (the most since 2008).

As Bloomberg notes, the government’s quarterly ECI reading — which covers employer- paid taxes such as Social Security and Medicare in addition to the cost of wages and benefits — offers a glimpse at how American workers are being compensated.

The latest reading shows momentum in worker compensation ahead of October wage figures due in Friday’s monthly employment report.

With the world’s equity market bulls hoping for weak economic data to give The Fed an excuse to pause its ‘normalization’, this data crushes that hope. Is good news bad news? We shall see.

 

 

via RSS https://ift.tt/2CPzxAl Tyler Durden

“We’re Back In The Real World Where Bad News Is Bad News”: To $1 Trillion Fund Manager, Turmoil Is “New Normal”

For nearly a decade stocks enjoyed an environment of unprecedented bullishness, where good news was good news, and bad news was even better as it suggested central bank intervention via monetary stimulus, boosting asset prices. But that is no longer the case according to the head of Natixis SA’s $1 trillion asset-management arm who says that volatile equity markets are the “new normal.”

“We’re back to the basics: risk on, risk off,” Jean Raby, CEO of Natixis Investment Managers, said in an interview Tuesday at the Canada Fintech Forum in Montreal. “Over the past several years, in a way, bad news was good news because it meant a more accommodating monetary policy. Now we’re in the real world where bad news is bad news, and good news may not be such great news.

The good news, according to Raby is that for now at least, the fundamental “bad news” is not quite as bad as markets have made it out in the past month, stressing that no single region is in contraction and emerging markets contagion from Turkey and Argentina is probably “overstated.”

“I have to believe, when I look at the fundamentals, that we are still on pretty sound footing.”

Natixis Investment, which is controlled by Groupe BPCE, France’s second-biggest bank, warned earlier this year that a global sell-off could hit its asset-management business, although higher volatility could benefit its trading operations.

While the recent Saudi turmoil has moved away from the front pages, Raby was asked about the longer-term impact on investment in Saudi Arabia, saying it’s too early to tell.

“It’s difficult for me to comment on where the future is going specifically for the kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” he said. “In the Middle East we have a relatively small presence. As far as we’re concerned I would like to believe that we could expand that.”

Raby also discussed the asset management space in Europe, noting that consolidation among large European asset maangers has remained “a very difficult thing to do” after his company’s failed combination with Axa SA’s asset-management business. He also said that smaller asset managers (2 billion to 20 billion euros) often hit “glass ceilings” in terms of higher technology and expansion costs, adding that “It’s those asset managers that come knocking on our door.”

via RSS https://ift.tt/2Pvwy6J Tyler Durden

ADP Employment Jumps Most In 8 Months, Small Business Struggles

Following September’s big disappointment in BLS data (95k below ADP’s print), October saw no relenting in ADP’s exuberance with a better than expected +227k (vs +187k exp).

September’s +229k spike was revised down to +218k making October’s +227k print the best since February

Under the hood, small business rose the least with no cohorts seeing net job losses…

“Despite a significant shortage in skilled talent, the labor market continues to grow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

”We saw significant gains across all industries with trade and leisure and hospitality leading the way. We continue to see larger employers benefit in this environment as they are more apt to provide the competitive wages and strong benefits employees desire.”   

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,

“The job market bounced back strongly last month despite being hit by back-to-back hurricanes. Testimonial to the robust employment picture is the broad-based gains in jobs across industries. The only blemish is the struggles small businesses are having filling open job positions.”   

Full Breakdown:


     ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 227,000 Jobs in October

If projecting today’s ADP data on to Friday’s BLS payrolls print, bear in mind that last month was the biggest variance since Sept 2015…

via RSS https://ift.tt/2EO44RA Tyler Durden

GM Soars 10% After Beating Dramatically Lowered Earnings Bar

General Motors stock is soaring in the pre-market after smashing earnings expectations (the 14th straight quarterly beat) and hinting that full-year earnings may be at the high end of the range that it has forecast.

In boosting adjusted profit to $1.87 a share, GM beat dramatically lowered expectations that earnings would slip from a year earlier and overcame global auto sales leveling off (with China deliveries plunging 15% YoY).

Bloomberg highlights the following key insights:

  • GM’s sales in the U.S. have been down slightly this year and dropped 15 percent in China in the quarter, so expectations for this report were low.

  • The automaker also said that it expects profit for the year to hit the high end of its previous guidance, which was for between $5.80 and $6.20 a share. Earnings could even beat $6.20 a share depending on “macro factors,” spokesman Tom Henderson told reporters at the company’s headquarters in Detroit.

  • Slower retail sales didn’t hurt GM’s performance. In the U.S., the automaker continues to sell more expensive models. New sport utility vehicles including the Chevrolet Traverse and Equinox have been selling well and commanding better prices.

  • Delivered nearly 700,000 vehicles in the U.S. in 3Q; GM China delivered nearly 836,000 vehicles.

  • GM’s income from its China operations was a third-quarter record. While retail sales dipped, this was driven by the low-priced Baojun brand, while the company delivered more lucrative Cadillac models such as the new XT4 SUV.

All of this has sparked a pre-open squeeze, sending GM up over 10%…

So, despite the plunge in China deliveries, this beat seems driven by China revenues – we wonder if this is a one-off pre-tariffs spike?

via RSS https://ift.tt/2ACTCZb Tyler Durden

The DOJ Should Not Prosecute Robert Bowers: New at Reason

If anyone deserves execution, the man who murdered 11 mostly elderly people at a Pittsburgh synagogue on Saturday certainly seems like a strong contender. But regardless of how you feel about the death penalty, Jacob Sullum says, the Justice Department’s decision to pursue it in this case should trouble you if you worry about an overweening federal government, value the principle underlying the constitutional ban on double jeopardy, or think the government ought to punish people for their actions rather than their beliefs.

The federal criminal complaint against accused Pittsburgh shooter Robert Bowers charges him with 29 felonies, including 11 violations of 18 USC 247, which authorizes the death penalty for fatally obstructing any person’s “free exercise of religious beliefs.” Such a crime can be prosecuted in federal court as long as it “is in or affects interstate or foreign commerce.” To give you a sense of how loose that requirement is, the complaint asserts that it’s met because the guns Bowers used “were not manufactured in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.”

View this article

from Hit & Run https://ift.tt/2AFiGPj
via IFTTT

Six Scary Charts To Keep Investors Up At Night This Halloween

Authored by Laura Frost via BondVigilantes.com,

If you are looking for something really scary this Halloween, there is no need to reach out for blockbuster thrillers or monster figures – just look at these six spooktacular financial charts.

This generation looks different

US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell recently warned about the ever-increasing amount of US student debt outstanding: “You do stand to see longer-term negative effects on people who can’t pay off their student loans. It hurts their credit rating, it impacts the entire half of their economic life.”

Student debt also impacts the overall economy: as graduates seek to repay their loans, they are forced to make concessions to their financial consumption, leading to an ever-growing drag on the economy. They buy fewer goods and services and are delayed in joining the housing ladder, with many choosing (or having) to rent instead. On top of this, student debt sees the highest 90+ day delinquency rate of all US consumer credit.

The anaconda moment?

The long-end of the US Treasury market has often been described as a giant anaconda: it draws little attention as it sleeps most of the time, but the minute it wakes up, everybody around shakes. US 30-year bonds don’t bite, but their moves can be as poisonous as they basically determine millions of mortgage rates, as well as the price that governments and companies around the world pay for debt.

The 30-year Treasury yield has remained within the support and resistance level shown for over 30 years, rallying 6% over the period and giving investors a long bull run. Does the recent breach through this level mean that the anaconda is beginning to stir?

And you thought investors were more protected after the crisis

Investors tend to like debt with strong covenants as it usually protects their interests more by forcing companies to limit their debt levels or dividend payments. This is why they are now increasingly concerned when seeing this chart: covenant-light, or “cov-lite” loan issuance has vastly overtaken the levels seen in the leadup to the financial crisis. Then and now, lighter covenants make it easier for distressed companies to continue issuing secured bonds, potentially eroding the value of higher tier loans and ultimately leading to low recovery rates for investors.

Bobbing for Apples

How scary is this? The Euro Stoxx Banks index market cap is the aggregate of its *26*member banks, including Banco Santander, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and SocGen. At $1 trillion, Apple’s market cap now comfortably exceeds not only this, but also the GDP of countries like Turkey, the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia.

Twenty years ago, Apple was on the brink of collapse—90 days from bankruptcy, the company’s late co-founder Steve Jobs once said. Apple is now the first company in US history to reach the trillion-dollar threshold of market capitalisation (PetroChina was the world’s first, in 2007). Which just goes to show the difficulty investors are faced with bobbing for Apples when they select stocks in the market.

The Fed has never been able to orchestrate a soft landing

With US unemployment at rock-bottom levels and the stock market at near record highs, the Fed has begun hiking rates in an attempt to engineer a soft landing: it wants to slow the economy enough to avoid an overheating, but not so much that it causes a recession.

How many times over the past 70 years has the Fed successfully managed to do this and return unemployment (green line) back up to its natural level (blue line) without a recession ensuing (vertical bars)? You’ll be scared after counting…

And finally…

And finally, our scariest chart this Halloween: how much the US spends on it. Let us know if you’ve ever received a Halloween card… Americans spend $400 million on them, apparently.

Happy Halloween everyone!

via RSS https://ift.tt/2zlB6Cy Tyler Durden

Larry Sharpe’s Libertarian Message for New York: New at Reason

“Libertarians believe that you should be as conservative or as liberal as you want to be as long as you don’t want to force yourself on others,” says Larry Sharpe, Libertarian candidate for governor of New York.

Sharpe wins fans by arguing that it would be good if individuals make their own decisions without government spending constantly getting in the way. That’s refreshing to hear from a politician, writes John Stossel.

View this article.

from Hit & Run https://ift.tt/2Oh6tnh
via IFTTT