After nearly two years of painstaking negotiations, UK Prime Minister Theresa May appears to have finally secured a Brexit deal that has received the begrudging support of her cabinet. The pound rallied Tuesday evening, breaking above $1.30 as traders’ swallowed their doubts and embraced what, if accurate, could be a groundbreaking report from the Sun’s chief political correspondent, Tom Newton Dunn.
According to Dunn, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, Home Secretary Sajid Javid, Environment Secretary Michael Gove, Transport Secretary Chris Grayling and Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom have all begrudgingly agreed to back May’s 500-page plus revised Brexit plan after the prime minister pleaded with them to acquiesce “in the national interest.”
Prepping the ground, The Sun has learned that Mrs May told the Cabinet’s regular weekly meeting [Tuesday] morning: “We will have to sit there as a Cabinet and consider what is in the national interest”.
A senior No10 source added that the PM will tell today’s showdown that the negotiation “has been pushed as far as it can go” and that the UK “cannot get any better deal than this one”.
The source added: “The PM is firmly of the view that the deal will not be improved by dragging it out any longer”.
[…]
They included Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, Home Secretary Sajid Javid, Environment Secretary Michael Gove, Transport Secretary Chris Grayling and Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom.
The Sun understands that none of the key players are expected to resign today, with all grudgingly agreeing to go along with her plan at least for now.
The news sent the pound rallying Tuesday evening: GBP/USD climbed as much as 0.5% to 1.3036, breaching its 55-day moving average and nearing its Nov. 7 high of 1.3175.
While many members of May’s conservative party, including avowed Brexiteers like Jacob Reese-Mogg, remain opposed to the current iteration of the so-called Brexit “backstop” – which calls for the entirety of the UK to remain inside the EU Customs Union until an agreement on a new trade deal can be reached, something Reese-Mogg and Boris Johnson have said risks transforming the UK into a vassal state – it appears May might finally have enough votes to push the deal through parliament.
Of course, resorting to the hard-sell approach of demanding votes in “the national interest” has always been part of May’s plan, as details from May’s strategy for selling the (then still unfinished) deal showed late last month.
Apparently, enough of May’s allies agree, as the rhetoric circulating around Westminster was that, though May’s draft deal “isn’t perfect”, it did include some key wins.
The detail on the Irish backstop:
1. A UK-wide customs union, and no NI-only version (UK win)
2. An independent panel to arbitrate a ‘good faith’ end mechanism (UK win)
3. No backstop end date or time limit (UK loss)
4. Full level playing field rules apply thru out (UK loss)— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) November 13, 2018
But Mrs May’s allies claimed that while the deal is not perfect, it was “the best anyone could get”, and she has pulled off some key wins.
They include throwing out a Brussels bid to enforce a customs border down the Irish Sea, and an independent panel to arbitrate over if the Irish border backstop should end when either side stops acting in good faith.
Theresa May last night pleaded with tortured Cabinet ministers to act in “the national interest” and back her compromise Brexit deal with the EU.
After meeting with her key cabinet ministers one by one on Tuesday, May successfully persuaded them to support the deal during a grueling three-hour meeting. If the cabinet formally approves the deal on Wednesday, then EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier will call for a meeting of the 28 EU leaders on Nov. 25 to finalized the draft agreement. After that, it will be put up for a vote in the House of Commons.
Aside from Reese-Mogg and BoJo, who appear to be digging in their heels, many of the Brexiteers have finally acquiesced, perhaps sensing that they had few alternatives aside from a “no-deal” Brexit. However, Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, upon whom May depends for 10 votes in Parliament, remains opposed to the draft agreement (though the text of the deal won’t be released until it’s formally approved by the cabinet, the highlights have already leaked).
DUP leader Arlene Foster, whose 10 MPs’ votes are crucial to Mrs May, last night declared that any new trade barriers between Northern Ireland and the UK are “not acceptable.”
It would also be “democratically unacceptable” for Northern Ireland trade rules to be set by Brussels, she added.
Issuing an ominous warning to the PM, Ms Foster added: “These are momentous days and the decisions being taken will have long-lasting ramifications.
“The Prime Minister must win the support of the Cabinet and the House of Commons. Every individual vote will count.”
If May fails to win support for the deal, either from her cabinet, or from Parliament, she could face a leadership challenge as simmering resentments against her administration break out into open hostility. And while the Sun and May would like us all to believe that this time is different – that she finally has a deal that might pass muster in the House of Commons – this wouldn’t be the first time we’ve heard that, only for a “finalized” deal to collapse. Just remember: It’s not over until the vote totals are in.
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