Negotiations over the post-Brexit political statement had appeared to show some progress on Thursday ahead of this weekend’s make-or-break summit of EU leaders, sparking a jump in the pound even as more sign of opposition to May’s draft Brexit deal emerged. Though some might have sensed that there could be trouble ahead when media reports about the statement indicated that it included no references to Gibraltar despite Spain’s threats to blow up the talks if the issue wasn’t addressed.
As it turned out, this read turned out to be correct, as the pound has now reversed nearly all of those gains, and then some, as the EU Sherpas hammering out the ‘political statement’ that will accompany the Brexit withdrawal treaty have apparently reached an impasse over the issue of the post-Brexit treatment of Gibraltar. According to Bloomberg, the sherpas have failed to reach a deal over Gibraltar, jeopardizing the entire statement, and possibly May’s draft Brexit deal itself, which Spain has vowed to oppose unless it receives assurances that it will have the opportunity to bilaterally negotiate with the UK over the issue during the transition period.
EU sources confirmed that the issue of the post-Brexit treatment of Gibraltar – or rather, the framework for post-Brexit negotiations over the treatment of Gibraltar – remain the only significant issue preventing the statement from being finalized.
Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier told reporters that both the UK and EU are “working hard” on the compromise over Gibraltar after negotiators failed to finalize a deal during a Friday morning meeting in Brussels. Unlike virtually all of the Brexit-related contretemps until now, the UK isn’t the problem here: the Gibraltar issue must be worked out between Spain and other EU members, after Spain accused the bloc of ‘treachery’ over Gibraltar and threatened to blow up the last stage of talks before this weekend’s summit.
European Commission spokesman Alexander Winterstein emphasized that finding a solution to this issue rests with EU governments.
“Work on this issue, which is one of the issues that is still outstanding, is ongoing,” Winterstein tells reporters in the Brussels headquarters of the commission, the 28-nation European Union’s executive arm.
BuzzFeed reported earlier that Spain has been asking if Article 132 – extending the Brexit transition period – could be changed, then why couldn’t Article 184, which says the EU and UK must do their best to negotiate a future trade deal during the transition.
For everybody who is still confused about why the post-Brexit status of Gibraltar is suddenly such a major sticking point in the negotiations to establish what is merely a non-binding framework for post-Brexit trade talks, the BBC’s Katya Adler offers a thorough explanation in the thread below:
1) How much of a threat is the Spain/Gibraltar question to the #Brexit summit on Sunday? This issue has the potential to be either a) huge or b) to disappear in to a puff of smoke
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
2) Spain feels hoodwinked. Gibraltar is of huge national interest (and hurt pride) for many Spaniards. Many at the very least saw an opportunity with #Brexit to gain considerable influence over the Rock
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
3) At the beginning of #Brexit negotiations Spain was promised that no decisions could be taken over the future of Gibraltar without consultation with Spain which is why throughout the negotiations process, there have been bilateral Spain-U.K. talks in parallel
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
3) At the beginning of #Brexit negotiations Spain was promised that no decisions could be taken over the future of Gibraltar without consultation with Spain which is why throughout the negotiations process, there have been bilateral Spain-U.K. talks in parallel
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
4) BUT when EU-U.K. talks reached an impasse over the Irish border backstop, Barnier and his team proposed going into a ‘tunnel’ – blocking out political and media noise to maximise chances of sealing a deal. It is in that tunnel time that Spain feels it was ‘betrayed’
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
5) Suddenly the Irish backstop became a U.K.-wide customs area – meaning it was potentially straying in to post-#Brexit trade deal territory. Neither there in that text, nor in the draft of the political declaration on EU-UK future relations was there mention of Gibraltar
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
6) Spain feels its positive attitude in the EU-U.K. bilateral talks was now being taken for granted and that their concerns over Gibraltar were being ‘sacrificed’ to give an extra something to the U.K. in negotiations. The European Commission denies this
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
7) But Spain is not alone in feeling that their national interests were ignored during ‘tunnel’ negotiations. France, Denmark and the Netherlands feel let down by their EU negotiators over pinning down ongoing fishing rights in U.K. waters after #Brexit for example
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
8) Spanish PM Sanchez is hugely pro-European. Sees himself as a bit of a Macron #2. It’s not in his nature to scupper EU plans or an EU summit. Remember when Italy’s Salvini refusedto taken in migrant boats, Sanchez was the first to volunteer help BUT
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
9) He’s under a lot of domestic pressure over Gibraltar and he heads a minority government. It’s just possible he’s learned from Salvini – if you dig in your heels in the EU, you can get results. Remember the EU thought it possible to hold the #Brexit summit in December instead..
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
10) The Commission thinks this can be solved without reopening the #Brexit texts by noting Spain’s insistence on continuing U.K.-Madrid bilateral talks regarding post-Brexit relations in a declaration added to the texts or other EU formulas
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
11) It’s certainly important to know the issue will be solved ahead of Sunday. Spain doesn’t have an actual veto over the divorce deal in the sense that EU leaders don’t vote on issues as such BUT
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
12) EU leaders make decisions by consensus. There is no way they can sign off this Sunday on a text designed for a leaving member (UK) when an existing member (Spain) is so strongly opposed
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
13) There is less EU solidarity with Spain over Gibraltar than there is with Ireland over the border BUT the EU has been so proud about unity amongst its member over #Brexit They wont want to give that up at this late stage in the divorce process
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
14) The veto Spain has on Sunday is moral/political and therefore effective if it gets that far. Also remember – bitterness over Gibraltar, fishing rights etc are obstacles the U.K. will face after #Brexit in negotiating a trade deal with EU which ALL member states need to ratify
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) November 23, 2018
Meanwhile Tory Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith threatened on Friday that he and his fellow eurosceptic Torys would kill May’s Brexit plan regardless of promises to adopt a “tech solution” to the Irish border problem and implied it is meaningless.
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