After an initially confusing bounce in WTI (after API reported a bigger than expected crude build), oil prices have resumed their drop overnight ahead of this morning’s DOE data.
Notably, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza points out that today’s inventory data should have limited sway over sentiment, as the market looks ahead to talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia as well as broader discussions among OPEC members next month. We’re less than convinced that cuts of about 1 million barrels a day will stabilize crude benchmarks, even though recent harsh price weakness is unsustainable and is approaching extremes. Russia is incentivized to maintain output close to current levels to manage gasoline prices.
API
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Crude +3.453mm (+700k exp) – 10th weekly build in a row
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Cushing +1.302mm
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Gasoline -2.602mm
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Distillates +1.185mm
DOE
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Crude +3.58mm (+2.53mm exp) – 10th weekly build in a row
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Cushing +1.177mm
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Gasoline -764k
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Distillates +2.61mm
DOE confirmed API’s 10th consecutive weekly crude build (bigger than expected) but a big build in distillates broke the nine-week draw streak.
US Crude production continues at a record pace – outstripping Russia and Saudi…
“A significant production cut on the part of OPEC and its allied non-OPEC producers at their meeting next week in Vienna will thus be needed to re-balance the oil market next year and ensure that stocks do not rise any further,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.
WTI is tumbling after the crude and distillates build…
The WTI contract is struggling under the pressure of another stockpile build, and fading optimism that Saudi and Russia will come together to lower 2019 production.
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