Trump better deliver…
China stocks eked out a modest gain on the week thanks to a late Friday liftathon ahead of this weekend’s uncertainty…
But Shanghai Composite closed down on the month (2nd month lower in a row)
European markets were oddly quiet all week aside from the buying panic at the open on Monday…(but Italy handily outperformed)
But on the month, a mixed bag with Italy and Spain green and the rest of the majors red…
US equities soared on the week, with Nasdaq up 5.6% leading – the best week since Dec 2011…
Trannies soared in November and thanks to the last few days of Powell and Trade hope, stocks were rescued from another ugly month…
On the day, equity moves were dominated by optimistic headlines from Buenos Aires from both Trump and Xi sources…
Best week for S&P since Dec 2011 and barekly managed to get above its 50DMA…
November was all about two big short-squeezes…
Goldman Sachs plunged again today to fresh 2-year lows, erasing all post-Trump gains – worst month since Sept 2011
FANG Stocks closed lower for the 3rd month in a row…(longest losing streak since Feb 2016)… despite panic-buying this last week…best week since January
Credit markets tumbled for the 2nd month in a row – the worst 2-month drop since Jan 2016 for HY and IG (wider for 4 straight months). IG Credit compressed 5bps this week – best week since June (and HY CDX biggest weekly spread compression since February).
Bonds and Stocks were bid in the last hour today…
Extending their divergence post-Powell…
On the week, 2s and 30s are unchanged with the belly lower in yield…
Treasury yields tumbled in November – 10Y yields dropped over 13bps – the biggest monthly drop since Aug 2017
10Y Yields closed the week with a 3.00% handle…
The short-end of the UST yield curve collapsed in November (biggest flattening since March)…7th flatter month in the last 9 (note that the curve accelerated its flattening post 10/17 FOMC Mins from Sept, and after the 11/08 FOMC statement)…
with 2s5s almost inverted
Nobody seems to see recession as a plausibility for 2019. Even the bears say it’s 2020. Yet — one part of the bond curve (2s/5s) is within 3 bps of inverting, suggesting it could come sooner, not later. pic.twitter.com/dUXgQgp3v7
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) November 30, 2018
The dollar index ended the month practically unchanged (hovering at its highest since May 2017)
It was a serious rollercoaster ride of a week as Powell’s dovishness pummeled the dollar and pre-G20 trade chatter seemed to spark buying…
Bitcoin was down for the 5th week in a row but the 37% collapse in November is the worst month since August 2011 (Bitcoin Cash fell 60% on the month as it forked)
With Bitcoin back below $4000 to end the week…
Copper and Gold managed gains on the month, silver small losses, but crude collapsed…
Gold managed to close higher for the 2nd month in a row
But was unchanged against the yuan…
But WTI collapsed to its worst month since 2008…
Blowing back below $50 again today before spurious old news OPEC headlines sparked another ramp…
As it seems 5 Oz of Silver for a barrel of WTI Crude was just too much again…
Finally, we note that rate-hike expectations for 2019 have now collapsed to less than one!! just 22.25bps for the year (The Fed is still at 3 or 4 hikes)…
And as Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg notes, this hypersensitive market is anything but healthy…
But a market that is so hitched to every word or nuance a central bank official has to say cannot possibly be viewed as a particularly healthy one.
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) November 29, 2018
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