One day before Theresa May is expected to call a second meaningful vote on her Brexit plan, the prime minister is facing another massive defeat, with the Telegraph reporting that the vote tally will likely be unchanged from her first go-round, when the margin of defeat was an historic 230 votes, the biggest loss for a British government since before the Second World War.
Weekend talks with the EU have – unsurprisingly – yielded no progress, with the only silver lining being Jean Claud-Juncker’s suggestion that if May could show she could win a majority for a deal with an altered version of the thorny Irish Backstop, the EU27 might consider tweaking the withdrawal agreement at a make-or-break EU summit later this month.
But according to MPs and cabinet ministers who have shared their grievances with the Telegraph, BBC and other British media outlets, it’s possible that May could be forced to resign before she gets there. Here’s May’s current conundrum, summarized as best we can (since, as the press readily admits, nobody knows exactly what’s going on amid the chaos): Last month, May promised to hold a series of meaningful votes: A vote on her deal, if that is defeated, a vote on whether Parliament would support a ‘no deal’ Brexit, and if that is defeated a vote on a Brexit delay. However, given that another destabilizing defeat could cede more leverage to Labour and remainer MPs – who could then try and seize control of proceedings and push through a softer version of Brexit that could involve remaining in the customs union and single market and preserving the free movement of people (i.e. Brexit in name only). Adding another layer of pressure, Labour is threatening to table a no-confidence motion in May’s government if the deal is defeated.
With this in mind, many of May’s senior cabinet ministers are pushing her to opt for a conditional vote instead, per the Telegraph.
Under the plan, instead of holding a meaningful vote tomorrow, the government would instead lay a conditional motion setting out terms that might be acceptable to Parliament to deal with the Irish backstop issue. Supporters of the plan say it would send a message to the EU about the kind of deal that might get a majority in the Commons.
“As it stands her deal is going to be defeated,” a senior party source told The Times. “It has been made clear to Downing Street that it would be eminently sensible to avoid that happening by proposing a motion that the party can support. Whether they listen or not is another matter.”
May is expected to discuss the plan Monday morning during a meeting with her senior cabinet ministers.
Though holding a conditional vote sounds like a more sensible option given where we are in the Brexit process (Brexit Day is less than three weeks away, and it might be helpful to finally establish what Parliament would support, if it’s not going to be May’s plan), there is another complication: Many opposition MPs, and even some Tories, would regard the cancellation of the meaningful vote, and the subsequent votes May had promised, as a betrayal, with some whispering that she could face a mutiny to oust her if she cancels the vote.
Case in point: The statement below, made by a Tory MP, is indicative of the “reception waiting for PM” if she cancels the vote, or opts for the conditional vote instead.
👇this is the reception waiting for PM if she downgrades or cancels this week’s votes https://t.co/5v5JhLU8nm
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) March 11, 2019
One cabinet minister “even said we’d have to remove her”. So far, PM May’s spokesman has insisted that the votes will take place this week.
So, once again May has been stuck with an impossible dilemma: Opt for the conditional vote, and risk being ousted, or go ahead with the meaningful vote(s), and risk being ousted.
Whatever she decides will probably be revealed in a statement from the PM later today.
Meanwhile, the pound is headed for its longest losing streak in 10 months as it becomes increasingly clear that May’s deal remains supremely unpopular.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2TuXiHt Tyler Durden