ADP Employment Disappoints, Suffers Drastic Downward Revisions

After May’s collapse, ADP employment gains have rebounded notably but were expected to slow once again in September (which makes some sense given the collapse in ISM/PMI employment indices).

But things were considerably worse – not only did September’s data miss (+135k vs +145k exp) but Augusts’s big jump of 195k was revised drastically lower to just 157k.

Source: Bloomberg

“The job market has shown signs of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

“The average monthly job growth for the past three months is 145,000, down from 214,000 for the same time period last year.”

Goods-producing jobs rose 8.2k and Services rose 126.7k – but both slowed down and also saw notable downward revisions…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, internals are relatively solid with only mining losing jobs…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Full infographic:

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Businesses have turned more cautious in their hiring. Small businesses have become especially hesitant. If businesses pull back any further, unemployment will begin to rise.”