UMich Consumer Confidence Rebound Continues, Led By Richest Americans & Democrats

The final November data from University of Michigan shows that the American consumer’s confidence rebound has continued, but it is mainly attributable to the richest Americans.

The final consumer sentiment index for Nov. rose to 96.8. It was 95.7 in the preliminary reading. The index was 95.5 last month.

Current conditions actually dipped, but hope remains high…

• Expectations index rose to 87.3 vs. 84.2 last month.

• Current economic conditions index fell to 111.6 vs. 113.2 last month.

Source: Bloomberg

UMich’s Richard Curtin writes that personal spending will be energized by record favorable evaluations by consumers of their personal financial situation, with gains expected across the entire income distribution, net increases in household wealth, the renewed appeal of price discounting, and reduced mortgage rates.

The highest earners saw confidence surge in November, but low income Americans declined…

Source: Bloomberg

The divide between Democrats and Republicans is narrowing as amid the impeachment debacle, Democrats confidence rose and Republicans fell…

Source: Bloomberg

Buying Conditions improved for houses but slipped lower for both autos and large durables…

Source: Bloomberg

Consumers negatively mentioning tariffs 24% in Nov. vs 36% two months ago.

Finally, we note that inflections in UMich buying conditions have historically led unemployment…

Source: Bloomberg

Will this time be different (until Nov 2020?)