Durable Goods Orders Rebound Bigly In October, CapEx Proxy Surges

After unexpectedly sliding in September, Durable Goods New Orders were expected to contract further in preliminary October data but instead surprised bigly to the upside, rising 0.6% MoM (-0.9% exp) after a downward-revised 1.4% drop in September.

Notably, however, Durable Goods Orders remain down 0.9% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, the proxy for capital expenditures, Capital Goods Shipments Non-Defense Ex-Air, rose0.8% MoM (-0.2% exp) – the biggest jump since Jan 2019 (after 4 months of contraction)…

Source: Bloomberg

So with China’s Industrial Profits crashing by the most on record in October and US Durable Goods Orders rebounding aggressively, one might suggest ‘Trump is winning’ the trade war.