US “Leading” Economic Indicators Crash By Most In Over 60 Years

The US Conference Board’s leading economic index crashed 6.7% in March – the biggest monthly drop since the series began in 1959…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood:

• The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was interest rate spread at 0.03

• The biggest negative contributor was jobless claims at -5.53

• LEI coincident index fell 0.9% in March after rising 0.3% in prior month

• LEI lagging index rose 1.2% in March after rising 0.3% in Feb.

The index (which fell 0.2% in February after rising 0.4% in January) fell to its lowest since July 2017…

And on a year-over-year basis, LEI crashed 6.6% – the biggest annual drop since September 2009…

We are sure this will all be dismissed as “transitory”… despite its apparent “leading” nature.