US Durable Goods Orders Collapse In Early March Data

After an armada of ugly data this week, US Durable Goods orders were expected to be the piece de resistance and it was  – with preliminary March orders crashing 14.4% MoM (far worse than the already bad 12% decline expected), sending year-over-year durable goods orders down 14.7% – the worst since the great financial crisis..

 

Source: Bloomberg

The biggest driver of the drop was Boeing order cancellations (New orders ex-defense fell 15.8% in March after 0.2% fall)… four times worse than during the great financial crisis.

Source: Bloomberg

Outside of extreme swings in airline orders that distort the data drastically, this is the worst MoM drop ever.

There is a lot of noise in these numbers so one must be careful with Orders ex-Transports only down a measly 0.2% MoM (against expectations of 6.5% plunge) and the Business Investment proxy (Cap Goods Shipments non-Defense, ex-Aircraft) fell just 0.2% MoM (against expectations of a 7.0% collapse).

We suspect by the time the final March data comes in, this will be a bloodbath.