‘Hope’ Sends New York Manufacturing Survey Soaring Back To ‘Normal’ In June

After collapsing to a record low -78.2 in April, The New York Fed’s general business conditions index advanced to -0.2 from -48.5 a month earlier. This is massively better than the -30.0 expectation.

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, a reading of zero is the dividing line between expansion and contraction meaning that at -0.2, New York is basically “back to flat” in June.

The move was entirely driven by an explosion in hope…

This reopening euphoria is the highest level of ‘hope’ for 6-month forward expectations since Oct 2009. And that rebound did not end well in 2009.