Billionaire Ray Dalio Holds Reddit AMA To Discuss Rise Of China, Threats To Dollar’s Reserve Status

For the past few years, as Bridgewater, the titanic hedge fund, mostly continued on autopilot with the computers handling most of the investing, the firm’s founder and longtime  leader, Ray Dalio, has been refining his thesis about the next major turning point in global history, which Dalio believes will be precipitated by the growing tensions between a rising China and falling America.

That empires rise and fall is nothing new to history, Dalio says. He even produced a helpful chart that illustrates the waxing and waning standing and influence of the world’s ‘Great Powers’ dating back to the 1500s.

Using a handful of metrics measuring national performance in areas including education and innovation, Dalio produced a chart breaking down this ‘decline’ in American Greatness – so to speak. Though declines in “education” and “trade” are at the lowest levels relative to history, other critical  indicators – including “innovation and technology” and “reserve status” (which allows America to borrow so heavily without driving surging interest rates and inflation) – have – according to Dalio’s analysis – only just turned over.

Looking back across the vast sweep of history, Dalio claims that dissolution of empires is almost always driven by a handful of factors, including unsustainable debt & money printing and growing political animosity and unrest. Sound familiar?

Of course, with US stocks pressing back toward record highs on Tuesday, investors are signaling that all is well in the US. In fact, despite a brutal pandemic and one of the worst economic crises in a century, things have apparently never been better. Well, at least for the roughly half of Americans who are lucky enough to own stocks.

This is why Dalio re-upped his warnings a few days ago about the US being on the cusp of another civil war or revolution. Both people and politicians are “at each other’s throats” with an intensity that outweighs anything Dalio has seen before during his 71 years on this planet. Whether this dynamic gets worse, or better, will have profound implications for the future of the country, according to Dalio’s latest LinkedIn essay.

“People and politicians are now at each other’s throats to a degree greater than at any time in my 71 years,” Dalio wrote noting that disorder is rising in a number of countries. “How the U.S. handles its disorder will have profound implications for Americans, others around the world, and most economies and markets.”

As it happens, Bridgewater fanboys and/or frustrated bears eager for a heavy dose of FUD will have yet another opportunity to question Dalio directly about his views, when he signs on to Reddit later on Tuesday for a 90-minute AMA to discuss his China thesis. The live Q&A, which will take place here, is set to begin at 1500ET, and run through 1430ET.

As many of you know, I’ve been studying the forces behind the rise and fall of great empires and their reserve currencies throughout history, with a focus on what that means for the US and China today. Many of the things now happening the world… (1/3) pic.twitter.com/JECV5Q9Gwo

— Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) December 8, 2020

…like the creating a lot of debt and money, big wealth and political gaps, and the rise of new world power (China) challenging an existing one (the US)—haven’t happened in our lifetimes but have happened many times in history for the same reasons they’re happening today. (2/3)

— Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) December 8, 2020

Today, I’ll be doing a Reddit AMA from 3-4:30PM EST, where I can discuss this with you and we can explore the patterns of history and the perspective they can give us on what is happening today. You can join here: https://t.co/5MK9URu76L (3/3)

— Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) December 8, 2020

Interested parties will need a reddit account to ask questions. We imagine this Q&A might generate more interest than in the past as the dollar’s recent weakness has spurred plenty of speculation about whether the dollar’s reign as the unchallenged global reserve currency has finally come to an end.