Stocks Jump On Vaccine Rollout, Hopes For Bipartisan Stimulus Bill

US equity futures jumped alongside European markets on Monday amid optimism that a pared-down stimulus bill may be imminent, as well as the imminent deployment of the first vaccine in the U.S. Oil continued its ascent above $50, while the dollar dropped.

Dow e-minis were up 251 points, or 0.8%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 29 points, or 0.78%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 77 points, or 0.6%. Among individual movers, Alexion Pharmaceuticals surged 32.3% after British drugmaker AstraZeneca said it would buy the U.S. biotech firm for $39 billion in one of this year’s biggest mergers worldwide. AstraZeneca’s U.S.-listed shares fell 5.3%, dropping to an 8-month low.

Cruise operators Carnival and Royal Caribbean rose 5.5% and 3.5%, respectively, in premarket trade, while stocks of major airline operators rose between 1.5% and 3.0%, with Jetblue Airways Corp leading gains. Travel and leisure stocks are the worst hit by restrictions on movement due to the pandemic, and have reacted positively to any vaccine-related news. Shares of FedEx and United Parcel Service which are leading the vaccine distribution project, rose about 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively. Travel stocks surged on the launch of a nationwide COVID-19 vaccine campaign, while investors held out hope for more local stimulus as bipartisan talks continued. Shipments of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine fanned out to distribution points across the United States on Sunday, with injections set to begin later on Monday.

The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 1% as of 10:35 a.m. in London, with banks and automakers leading gains among sectors. European shares got a boost after the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator told a private meeting of ambassadors that a trade deal with the U.K. could be done as soon as this week.

In Asia, equities benchmarks in Japan, Shanghai and Australia climbed while those in Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea slipped. Ecommerce company Alibaba Group Holding Ltd shed 1.5% after China warned its internet majors of more anti-trust scrutiny and slapped fines and announced probes into deals involving Alibaba and Tencent Holdings Ltd.

“There is huge pent-up investment demand across the entire institutional world,” Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse Group AG, told Bloomberg TV. “We’re steering into year-end with still tons of liquidity on the sidelines. I would not be on the wrong side of that.”

Global optimism was boosted by the latest developments on the political front, where a bipartisan group of lawmakers is set to unveil a $908 billion pandemic relief bill although there is “no guarantee” Congress will pass it, a key negotiator said. The bipartisan group is planning to release it on Monday so it can be considered by congressional leaders negotiating a final package that can be included in a government spending bill needed by Dec. 18

“While the pandemic is far from over with many countries continuing to impose restrictions, investors are finally seeing the light at the end of the dark tunnel,” said Hussein Sayed, the chief market strategist at FXTM. “What is being delivered today in the U.S. is more than just a vaccine, but hope that life will soon return to normal.”

Global stocks are looking to rebound from their first week of losses in six, even as hurdles remain for a U.S. stimulus deal and the coronavirus continues to spread. The head of the U.S. government’s vaccination drive said as much as 80% of the population could be given the shot by next summer, putting “herd immunity” within reach. Wall Street strategists are in broad agreement that vaccines will supercharge the economy next year.

In rates, Treasuries were under pressure led by long end of the curve amid global gains in risk sentiment, while the extension of Brexit talks further boosted bullishness, weighing on gilts while supporting the U.K. pound. Yields were were lower by up to 3.5bp at long end, with 2s10s and 5s30s steeper by more than 2bp; 10-year yields around 0.92%, cheaper by 2.5bp vs Friday’s close.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was set for its biggest daily decline since the beginning of December as the greenback fell against all of its Group-of-10 peers.  The pound posted its biggest gain in almost two months and gilts slumped as the U.K. and European Union agreed to continue talks past a Sunday deadline; EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier was said to see a “narrow path to agreement” with the U.K., according to an EU diplomat. The euro advanced to a day high of $1.2160 in the European session. As year-end approaches, euro risk reversals face a slew of risks. In addition to Brexit uncertainty, funding concerns and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, the typical liquidity slump before Christmas holidays is also taking hold. Australian dollar carried a risk-on bid; Norway’s krone gained as oil prices advanced after a tanker was hit by an explosion at the Saudi Arabian port of Jeddah.

In commodities, WTI crude oil hovered near $47 a barrel after another tanker explosion in the Middle East raised concerns over the region’s stability.

It’s a quiet day with no economic data or major company earnings are expected today.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 3,675.00
• Stoxx Europe 600 up 1% to 393.87
• MXAP up 0.2% to 195.16
• MXAPJ down 0.06% to 644.13
• Nikkei up 0.3% to 26,732.44
• Topix up 0.5% to 1,790.52
• Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 26,389.52
• Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,369.12
• Sensex up 0.4% to 46,262.81
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,660.25
• Kospi down 0.3% to 2,762.20
• Brent futures up 0.9% to $50.42/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,829.96
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.4% to 90.58
• German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to -0.628%
• Euro up 0.4% to $1.2155
• Italian 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 0.447%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to -0.001%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers is readying a two-part proposal with $908 billion in pandemic relief to help boost the battered U.S. economy. They are planning to release it as soon as Monday so it can be considered by congressional leaders negotiating a final package that can be included in a government spending bill needed by Dec. 18
• Germany will start a hard lockdown on Wednesday as officials conceded that the coronavirus has spiraled out of control and previous attempts to contain the pandemic were inadequate.
• London Mayor Sadiq Khan called for schools in the capital to close to stem a rising tide of coronavirus infections that threatens to push the city into the government’s tightest pandemic rules
• The Eurosystem, in line with previous years, will temporarily pause the APP and PEPP purchases in anticipation of significantly lower market liquidity towards the end of the year
• Deutsche Bank AG is considering moving some of its 4,600 Manhattan staff to other hub cities across the U.S. but there are no concrete plans as yet
• Citigroup Inc. plans to hire more than 330 relationship managers in Singapore by 2025 as the U.S. bank seeks to triple the number of qualified clients it manages from the island state.

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewSquawk

Asian equity markets began the week with a mild positive bias and US equity futures were also underpinned following the constructive headlines from over the weekend including the extension of Brexit talks and after US regulators approved the emergency use authorization for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine with the first round of inoculations stateside to begin today. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) traded higher with notable strength in tech, financials and consumer sectors front running the gains in Australia but with upside capped as healthcare and mining stocks lagged, while the Japanese benchmark benefitted after a continued improvement to the Tankan survey in which nearly all figures beat expectations including the Large Manufacturers Index which improved at the fastest pace since June 2002 despite remaining in negative territory for a 4th consecutive quarter. Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) were mixed with early indecision seen after the PBoC’s operations resulted in a net liquidity drain and after the announcement late last week by Nasdaq to remove shares of 4 Chinese companies from the indexes it manages following the US blacklisting and similar actions by both FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones Indices. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound amid the mostly positive mood in regional stocks and as demand for bonds was contained by a lack of BoJ purchases in the JGB market today with the central bank only seeking Treasury Discount Bills, although it did offer to buy JPY 600bln in commercial paper from Thursday.

Top Asian News

• Singapore to Ease Virus Rules on Dec. 28, Beginning ‘Phase 3’
• Kazakhstan Holds Rates at 9% as Inflation Surge Continues
• China Coal Futures Slide After NDRC Caps Price and Opens Imports

Major bourses in Europe mostly kicked off the session on a positive footing (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%) following on from a similar APAC performance, as markets caught tailwinds from constructive weekend headlines on the Brexit front and with the PFE/BNTX vaccine being approved State-side. That being said, the recent rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe has prompted some economies to reimpose/reconsider stricter measures during the holiday period, with draft proposals from Germany suggesting more stringent rules as of this Wednesday through to early Jan, whilst Italy and the Netherlands are reportedly set to follow in lockstep. Sticking with this theme, rhetoric has been increasing with regards to London entering Tier 3, with Politico also reporting that “things are so bad in the capital an announcement could come sooner, even today or tomorrow”, whilst some reports floated the idea of Tier 3 rules being strengthened. Nonetheless, EZ bourses are propped whilst the UK’s FTSE (+0.2%) fails to capitalise on the risk tone given Sterling-dynamics coupled with its largest constituent AstraZeneca (-5%) capping gains after announcing a USD 39bln for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (+35% pre-market) – the transaction values Alexion at USD 175/shr vs Friday’s 120.98/shr closing price. Losses in AstraZeneca also weighs on the Health Care sector which lags its peers. The sub-par performance in the sector hinders the SMI (Unch) on account of its large pharma exposure. Delving deeper into the sectors, Travel & Leisure benefits from the FDA vaccine approval, Banks outperform as the constructive Brexit noise bolsters UK names with Barclays (+5.3%), Lloyds (+5.1%) and Natwest (+6.6%) benefitting. In a similar vein, UK housing names are also higher across the board on Brexit euphoria coupled with Rightmove forecasts 4% price growth over the next year as “housing priorities stay high on people’s life agendas, though price rises for newly marketed properties will be at a slower pace than this year.” In terms of other movers, Germany’s new holiday restrictions has underpinned delivery names Delivery Hero (+1.1%) and HelloFresh (+0.8%).

Top European News

• Pound Jumps After U.K.-EU Agree to Go Extra Mile in Brexit Talks
• Khan Wants London Schools to Close to Stem Coronavirus Tide
• U.K. Businesses Plead for Time to Avoid Brexit Cliff Edge
• Merkel Seeks to Regain Grip on Virus With Hard Holiday Lockdown

In FX,  It remains to be seen whether the latest extension to a deadline for trade talks between the UK and EU yields any success in terms of resolving outstanding differences, but the fact that both sides are willing to continue efforts in pursuit of a deal has been taken as a positive for the Pound with Cable having another glance at 1.3400 and Eur/Gbp back below 0.9100. Moreover, the latest briefing from Brussels via Barnier suggests that 1 of the 3 major sticking points has been overcome, leaving fisheries and the LPF blocking a narrow path to the holy grail, though he is still said to be guarded about prospects of reaching an agreement, while noises from Paris are apparently ever so cautiously encouraging.

• AUD/NZD/EUR/CHF – A constructive start to the new week in terms of overall risk sentiment beyond Brexit is underpinning the Antipodean Dollars in relation to their US counterpart as the Aussie straddles 0.7550 and Kiwi pivots 0.7100, but the Euro is not far behind in percentage terms and keeping the DXY depressed towards the bottom of a 90.907-570 range due to its greater weighting in the index. Eur/Usd is hovering just below 1.2150 and stops purportedly sitting around 1.2163 that could preface a retest of the 2020 high circa 1.2178 if tripped. However, the single currency may be hampered by the ongoing spread of COVID-19 that is hitting Germany especially hard, but also threatening to force Italy into tighter restrictions over the Xmas and New Year period. Elsewhere, the Franc is firm above 0.8900 and 1.0800 vs the Greenback and Euro respectively as weekly Swiss sight deposits suggest that the SNB refrained from direct intervention approaching the December quarterly policy review in favour of some official action or a response to last Thursday’s ECB stimulus. Back down under, RBA minutes may not be as compelling as comments from Kearns or flash Aussie PMIs and NZ current account balances for Q3 may offer the Nzd some independent impetus.
• CAD/JPY – Marginal G10 underperformers as the Loonie holds within a 1.2776-44 band despite firm oil prices in the run up to Canadian housing starts, manufacturing sales and a speech by BoC Governor Macklem on Tuesday, while the Yen rotates either side of 104.00 in wake of a somewhat mixed Japanese Tankan survey overnight in advance of trade data tomorrow.
• SCANDI/EM – In stark contrast to the lethargic Loonie, WTI caressing Usd 47/brl and Brent comfortably over Usd 50/brl are providing the Nok with enough fuel to outflank the Eur and Sek, but the Rub is struggling to breach 73.0000 and Mxn is meeting resistance at 20.0000, while the Try has not been able to glean any lasting momentum from firmer than forecast Turkish ip given the rise in crude and ongoing diplomatic tensions. Indeed, the Lira is languishing close to 7.9000 in stark contrast to the Yuan circa 6.5200 off a firmer PBoC midpoint fix and even the Rand nestling just beneath 15.0000 irrespective of a retreat in Gold as SA’s Eskom suspended planned power cuts following a recovery in reserves from emergency regeneration.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures see a firm start to the week as the complex coat-tails on the constructive risk tone coupled with some supply/demand side developments over the weekend, albeit not all bullish. Starting with demand news, US FDA authorized Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA vaccine for emergency use and reports stated that the companies were prepared to deliver first doses immediately. On the flip side, European net crude importers are set to enter more restrictive measures for the holiday period, with Germany announcing tighter rules from Wednesday through to Jan 10th, whilst Italy and the Netherlands are also said to be mulling similar moves. Onto the supply slide, AP reported an explosion hit a ship off Saudi’s port city of Jeddah on the Red Sea, while shipping company Hafnia later stated its oil tanker was hit by an unidentified external source which caused a fire and explosion while discharging at Saudi’s Jeddah port. Furthermore, a pipeline carrying crude to Iran’s second largest refinery ruptured due to a landslide which caused a fire to breakout, although it was later reported that most of the fire was contained and repairs were being conducted on the damaged section of the pipeline. Another supply-side story to keep an eye on – Iran’s oil ministry plans to increase the country’s overall crude and condensate production by almost 70% to 4.5mln bpd next year if the incoming Biden administration lifts the sanctions on the import of its oil, to which the Iranian Energy Minister stated that the country does not need permission from OPEC and allies. WTI Jan 21 resides around USD 47/bbl after waning from its USD 47.37/bbl high (vs. low USD 46.47/bbl) whilst Brent Feb 21 meanders around USD 50.50/bbl having had hit an overnight high of USD 50.80/bbl after printing a low at USD 49.88/bbl. Looking ahead, markets will see the release of the OPEC MOMR whereby focus will be on its global demand growth forecast revisions (if any) ahead of the IEA’s take tomorrow. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver trade lacklustre despite a softer Buck and as equities and overall sentiment remain propped up. The former resides around USD 1820/oz (vs. high ~USD 1855/oz) at the time of writing and the latter sub-USD 24/oz (vs. high 24.035/oz). Turning to base metals, iron ore futures overnight tumbled from recent highs after China stepped up its push for authorities to investigate the base metal’s recent rally. Finally, LME copper prices see modest gains after pulling back from best levels as DXY drifted off its worst levels. AP reported an explosion hit a ship off Saudi’s port city of Jeddah on the Red Sea although, while shipping company Hafnia later stated its oil tanker was hit by an unidentified external source which caused a fire and explosion while discharging at Saudi’s Jeddah port.

US Event Calendar

• No major earnings releases scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we start the last full week of the year, we owe all our readers a deep and profound apology today. For nearly 5 years we’ve been misleading you repeatedly and for that we can only ask for forgiveness. We will get help. We will repent. Yes, the approximately 55 times we’ve said that the next week was a defining one for Brexit talks was a great big fabrication. Yesterday another major deadline we highlighted was bulldozed and talks will again continue as a joint statement from PM Johnson and the EU’s von der Leyen yesterday was slightly more upbeat than the one released after their dinner on Wednesday night. There was no new deadline this time either, which might suggest some breakthroughs have been made even if briefings from a U.K. cabinet meeting yesterday afternoon weren’t particularly optimistic as PM Johnson told his colleagues that “we are still very far apart”. So the saga carries on and most people in global markets will sigh and move on with Sterling likely to be the highest profile asset to move on any newsflow. This morning it is up +0.69% to $1.3315 after the latest machinations. Barnier’s briefing to EU ambassadors this morning (7:30 AM UK time) will be the next interesting landmark.

The other big news from the weekend is that Germany is going to enter a hard lockdown on Wednesday until at least January 10th. After being the relative European success story in wave one, Germany has struggled over the last few weeks and one would expect Mrs Merkel to be keen to get this under control as a priority in the last year of her 16 year reign. However, in the short term this will be a blow to activity and confidence even if the damage will be limited by knowledge of the imminent vaccine rollout. Elsewhere, the U.K. will announce the review of new Covid-19 tierings on Wednesday with London widely anticipated to be placed into the strictest grouping. Overnight, the Telegraph has reported that London mayor Sadiq Khan has called for the government to shut the city’s schools from tomorrow. In the US, restrictions also mount with two-thirds of California on stay-at-home orders now as ICU units hit dangerous thresholds.

Staying with Covid-19, the US could start inoculations as soon as today after approval of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was given on Friday. Moncef Slaoui, the head of the US vaccination drive said that as many as 80% of the population could be given the shot by next summer. Meanwhile, the FDA meets on Thursday to decide whether to authorise emergency use of the Moderna vaccine.

We also got some headlines on the US fiscal stimulus stand-off over the weekend with Bloomberg reporting that a bipartisan group of US lawmakers plans to unveil a $908 bn coronavirus pandemic relief plan today, although one of the negotiators said there’s “no guarantee” Congress will pass it. The report further highlighted that in a bid to break the deadlock, lawmakers will present language for two separate bills with one proposal for $748bn in spending to include all provisions other than state and local aid and liability protections for employers. The second bill will have two provisions that have deeply divided both parties – $160 bn in state and local aid allocated through a needs-based system, and liability provisions. Meanwhile, a competing $916 bn relief proposal from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin – similar in size but different in detail – is still under consideration. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Mnuchin are due to speak again today after speaking yesterday to try to break the deadlock.

Asian markets have started the week on a slightly more positive note with the Nikkei (+0.43%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.25%) up even if the Hang Seng (-0.37%) and Kospi (-0.14%) are down. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.45% though. In Fx, the US dollar index is down -0.19% this morning. Elsewhere, DCE iron ore futures are down -3.26% likely due to a call from one of China’s leading mills group for authorities to investigate the raw material’s blistering rally after allegations of illegal activities.

Looking forward now and the last full week of the year is going to be fairly busy with the highlight being the FOMC on Wednesday. The BoJ (Friday) and BoE (Thursday) will close out the reminder of the main Central Bank meetings for 2020 this week. Ahead of that Wednesday sees the global flash PMIs and tomorrow sees China’s monthly data dump. As a curiosity, today sees the Electoral College formally allocate their Presidential votes. Also don’t forget those US stimulus talks, which have the air of Brexit talks given the constant artificial deadlines and never-ending negotiations.

A bit more detail on the central bank meetings first. Starting with the US, in their preview (link here), our US economists write that they expect the FOMC to maintain the current pace and composition of asset purchases. The most important innovation for this meeting is likely to be an enhancement to the QE guidance by adopting qualitative outcome-based language. On top of this, the latest Summary of Economic Projections will be released, where our economists expect there to be upgrades to the growth and unemployment forecasts. However, with a persistent shortfall in core inflation and uncertainty over the virus and the fiscal outlook, the median assessment of the federal funds rate should be unchanged through 2023.

Here in the UK, the Bank of England will also be holding their final meeting this year on Thursday, though we don’t expect any changes to the Bank’s policy settings after they increased QE by a further £150bn at their last meeting in November. For the Bank of Japan on Friday, our economists (link here) believe that they’ll vote to keep their present policy stance intact. The question for the BoJ is whether they extend their support for corporate financing beyond the end-March expiration date. On this DB now believe they will take action this week.

Outside of the aforementioned flash PMIs, there’ll also be an increasing amount of hard data from the US for November, with the week ahead seeing the release of figures on industrial production, retail sales, housing starts and building permits. The full day by day week ahead is at the end.

Before that, recapping last week. Global equity markets took a small step back as virus concerns continued to percolate, with lockdown measures were extended in parts of Europe and reinstated in pockets of the US. Also in the US, stimulus talks seemed to backtrack a bit with Congressional leaders and White House officials unable to work through the last roadblocks toward a deal that was looking more promising this time last week. The S&P 500 dropped -0.96% on the week (-0.13% Friday), while the NASDAQ composite fell just -0.69% (-0.23% Friday) even as Facebook received two anti-trust law suits; one from the FTC and another from a group of 48 states. The cyclical trade took a hit as well with bank stocks on both sides of the Atlantic dropping. US banks dropped -1.54% while European Banks were down a greater -6.15%. European equities dropped as well, with STOXX 600 ending the week -0.99% lower (-0.77% Friday) while the FTSEMIB (-2.15%) and IBEX (-3.12%) notably lagged.

With the drop in risk assets, investors rotated into sovereign bonds. Yields fell sharply as US 10yr Treasury yields dropped -7.0bps (+1.0bps Friday) to finish at 0.896%, the first time under 0.9% in December. 10yr Bund yields were -8.9bps (-3.3bps Friday) lower to -0.64%. 10yr Gilt yields fell -17.9bps (-2.9bps Friday) to 0.17% as Brexit talks continued to deteriorate. The pound fell -1.61% over the course of the week against the dollar, its first losing week since the last week of October and its worst week since early September.

On the data front, the highlight from Friday was the November PPI reading and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for December. Producer prices rose +0.1% month-over-month (+0.1% expected) after a +0.3 monthly rise in October, meanwhile core PPI rose +0.1% (+0.2% expected) from a month earlier and was up +1.4% (+1.5% expected) from a year ago. The U. Michigan consumer sentiment came in at a stronger-than-expected 81.4pts, compared with the 76.9pts estimates, possibly due to the coming vaccine, which received FDA approval in US on Friday evening.