Month: February 2023

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

On January 17, the Saudi minister of finance, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, announced that the Saudi state is open to selling oil in currencies other than the dollar. “There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the US dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Al-Jadaan told Bloomberg TV.

If the Saudi regime does indeed embrace substantial trade in currencies other than the dollar as part of its oil-export business, this would signal a shift away from the dollar as the dominant currency in global oil payments. Or measured another way, this would signal the end of the so-called petrodollar.

But how large of a shift is this? With the increasingly frequent Saudi comments about trading in nondollar currencies, we’ve also seen an increasing number of pundits announcing the “collapse” of the dollar or the imminent implosion of the dollar’s currently outsized global power.

Will a shift away from the dollar in the global oil trade really lead to a big relative decline in the dollar? Probably and eventually. But a number of other dominoes would need to fall first, most especially the domino we call “Eurodollars.”

On the other hand, it would be foolish to simply dismiss the potential end of the Saudi preference for the dollar with hand-waving. The end of the petrodollar would indeed weaken the dollar, even if this would not be a mortal blow in itself. Moreover, it is especially foolhardy to ignore the status of the petrodollar because that status also has geopolitical implications. Saudi comments on the dollar signal that the Saudis no longer consider its alliance with the United States to be as important as it has been since the 1970s. What’s not an immediate economic problem for the US regime or the dollar may nonetheless be an immediate geopolitical problem.

In context, probably the best way to look at the potential end of the petrodollar is to see it as one piece of the dollar-based portion of the global economy. Since the 1950s, the dollar has experienced an immense amount of support in terms of global trade and investment and in terms of dollar reserves held by foreigners. This has greatly propped up demand for US debt and for dollars, and this has had enormous disinflationary effects in the domestic US economy. That is, newly created dollars are soaked up by foreigners who both want and need dollars to pay off dollar-denominated debt and to pad bank reserves. But if global dollar dominance truly is in decline, we could potentially expect both higher domestic price inflation and higher interest rates than what Americans have become accustomed to over the past thirty years. In other words, as the dollar declines, the US regime will no longer be able to monetize debt and heap up immense new deficits without fear of high price inflation or falling Treasury prices. The end of the petrodollar is not a reason to panic right now, but it is the latest sign that the US regime’s power via the dollar is being reined in.

What Is the Petrodollar?

The petrodollar is the result of US efforts to secure access to Middle Eastern oil while also lessening the slide of the dollar in the early 1970s.

By 1974, the US dollar was in a precarious position. In 1971, thanks to profligate spending on both war and domestic welfare programs, the United States could no longer maintain a set global price for gold in line with the Bretton Woods system established in 1944. The value of the dollar in relation to gold fell as the supply of dollars increased as a byproduct of growing deficit spending. Foreign governments and investors began to lose faith in the dollar.

In response to these developments, Richard Nixon announced that the US would abandon the Bretton Woods system. The dollar began to float against other currencies. Not surprisingly, this devaluation did not restore confidence in the dollar. Moreover, the US had made no effort to rein in deficit spending. So the US needed to continue to find ways to sell government debt without driving up interest rates. That is, the US needed more buyers for its debt. Motivation for a fix grew even more after 1973, when the first oil shock further exacerbated the deficit-fueled price inflation Americans were enduring.

But by 1974, the enormous flood of dollars from the US into Saudi Arabia, the top oil exporter, suggested a solution. Nixon secured an agreement in which the US would buy oil from Saudi Arabia and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment as well. In return, the Saudis would use their dollars to purchase US Treasurys and help finance US budget deficits.

From a public finance point of view, this appeared to be a win-win. The Saudis would receive protection from geopolitical enemies, and the US would get a new place to unload large amounts of government debt. Moreover, the Saudis could park their dollars in relatively safe and reliable investments in the United States. This became known as “petrodollar recycling.” By spending on oil, the US was creating new demand for US debt and US dollars.

As time went on, thanks to Saudi Arabia’s dominance in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the dollar’s dominance was extended to OPEC overall, which meant that the dollar became the preferred currency for oil purchases worldwide.

This petrodollar arrangement proved to be especially important in the 1970s and 1980s, when Saudi Arabia and the OPEC countries controlled more of the oil trade than they do now. It also closely tied US interests to Saudi interests, ensuring US enmity toward the kingdom’s traditional rivals, such as Iran.

The Petrodollar Is a Type of Eurodollar

In terms of its economic role, however, the petrodollar has always just been a type of Eurodollar.

What is a Eurodollar? According to Robert Murphy:

The term Eurodollar actually refers to any US dollar-denominated deposit held at a financial institution outside of the United States, or even a USD deposit held by a foreign bank within the US. It thus has nothing to do with the euro currency, and is not restricted to dollars held in Europe; they are dollar deposits that are not subject to the same regulations as US dollars held by American banks, nor are they guaranteed by FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) protection (and hence they tend to earn a higher rate of return).

The trade in Eurodollars is huge, although it’s difficult to quantify exactly how huge. One estimate puts Eurodollar assets at around $12 trillion. For context, we can consider that all assets in US banks total about $22 trillion. Or put another way, “offshore dollar banking now amounts to about half of the US total.” So, the Eurodollar economy is very large, and this “dollar zone” is also a key component of many of the world’s leading economies, given that half or more of the world economy lies in that zone.

In contrast, in 2020, the petrodollar trade amounted to less than $3.5 trillion annually. That’s not insignificant, of course, but even a sizable reduction in this amount will not on its own cause global demand for the dollar (relative to other currencies) to collapse. With so many trillions in dollar-denominated loans floating around the global economy, the petrodollar remains only a piece of a larger pie.

Nevertheless, we could also conclude that the end of the petrodollar is part of a larger and important trend away from the dollar. The relative size of the Eurodollar market has decreased since 2008, dropping from a peak of 87 percent of the size of the US banking system to under 60 percent. Meanwhile, the share of US dollars in the reserves of foreign central banks has fallen, dropping from 71 percent twenty years ago to 60 percent today. This is a twenty-five year low. Russia, China, and India all have shown interest in freeing the global economy from the dollar.

Even if this trend continues, demand for the dollar will most certainly not disappear next week or next month, or next year. There is still a hoard of trillions of dollars’ worth of dollar-denominated debt in the global economy, and—for now, at least—that means continuing demand for dollars. Moreover, the dollar remains one of the safest currencies to keep on hand, given that the central banks in Japan, Europe, the United Kingdom and China, are hardly embracing “hard money.” Given that the US economy remains enormous, and US Treasurys remain at least as safe as other regimes’ bonds, foreigners will still keep a lot of dollars on hand to buy American assets. This is also true because—in spite of the myth that “America doesn’t make anything anymore”—foreigners also buy US products and services.

This certainly doesn’t mean everything is just fine for the dollar, though. A movement away from the dollar—even in slow motion—will mean a rising cost of living for Americans. With fewer foreigners holding on to dollars, the US regime’s current runaway monetary inflation will create more domestic price inflation. In other words, movement away from the dollar will mean the US regime must engage in less monetization of the nation’s debt if it wishes to avoid runaway inflation. It also likely will lead to a need to pay higher interest rates on US government bonds, and that will mean a need for more taxpayer money to service the debt. It will mean that  it will become more difficult for the US regime to finance every new war, program, and pet project that Washington can think up.

The Geopolitics of the Petrodollar

The more obvious short-term effects of the move away from the petrodollar will be in geopolitics rather than in the currency order. In addition to signaling that it is no longer wedded to the dollar, Saudi Arabia has also recently announced its openness toward Russia and a willingness to join the Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) nations. This shift in strategic interests for Saudi Arabia potentially poses an immediate threat to US strategic interests, in that the US regime has become accustomed to dominating the entire Persian Gulf region through the US’s Saudi ties. A Saudi turn away from the petrodollar will magnify this shift. That will be enough to further threaten the American standard of living, but not enough in itself to end the dollar. After all, the pound sterling did not cease to exist after its own fall from its vaunted position as the preferred global reserve currency. But it did become far less powerful. The dollar is headed in the same direction.

The prices of luxury items, more specifically pre-owned watches, soared during the early day of the virus pandemic as central banks injected trillions of dollars into the economy. By early 2022, central banks reversed course, tightening monetary conditions, which led to panic in stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrency. In late spring last year, we pointed out that mounting macroeconomic headwinds were beginning to cool luxury watch demand, and ‘boom times’ were over. 

Recall some of our commentary on the watch market throughout last year:

• Investors’ Clock Out’ Of Rolex Bull Market As Demand Cools
• “Boom Time Over”: Rolex Prices Crash In China
• Rolex, Patek, And Audemars Piguet Watch Prices Continue Drop As Crypto Winter Worsens

After double-digit declines in some timepieces, we even asked: Are Rolex Prices About To Bottom?

But that might not be the case as demand continues to sour. The latest sign of worsening trouble for the watch industry is the world’s largest marketplace, Chrono24 GmbH has reduced its workforce by 13%, eliminating about 65 jobs. 

The reductions underscore the losses faced by dealers who purchased expensive watches during an unprecedented price surge in 2021 and early 2022. Since then, values for the most desirable models have plunged on secondary markets and on resale platforms such as Chrono24.

The decline in second-hand prices for the top brands has been linked to rising inflation, slowing economic growth in the US and Europe and the crash in cryptocurrencies. The bursting of the crypto bubble erased paper profits for some investors who had turned to luxury watches as a new speculative asset class.

The supply of previously rare pre-owned watches on secondary markets has also increased significantly, driving down values. –Bloomberg 

Speaking on watch market gyrations, Chrono24’s co-CEO Tim Stracke said:

“We have seen very volatile, you could call it a roller-coaster situation, in the industry,”

Latest data from the Subdial50 index, an index tracking the top 50 most traded second-hand luxury watches on the pre-owned market, has slid nearly 33% in 12 months. 

Some of the watches in Subdial50. 

The secondary luxury watch market might bottom when central banks reverse course, but judging rates markets, the Federal Reserve might not pivot until late ’23, if not next year. 

Authored by Mandiner via Remix News,

Ukraine’s request for F-16 fighter jets represents a new level of support the U.S. should not entertain…

Very shortly after the announcement of the decision to supply Western tanks, the Ukrainian leadership came up with the idea that it now wants F-16 aircraft.

A fighter-bomber is a completely different category in every respect than the weapons promised and/or delivered so far.

Let’s start with the price. The F-16 costs between $13 million and $80 million, depending on the version, and its operating cost per hour flown is between $7,000 and $20,000. In light of the above, it can be seen that the air force is clearly the most expensive of the modern armed forces.

And this begs the question: What would be the purpose of these machines? Air superiority?

For a modern fighter aircraft flying twice the speed of sound, i.e., Mach 2, a runway 1.5-2 kilometers long is essential. A runway is a large and immovable target, just like the Russian supply bridges. Ukrainian air defenses, already struggling, would thus have to defend additional targets.

In addition, a significant and well-trained ground support staff is required for jet fighters because, like all Western technology, the F-16 has significant maintenance requirements.

This begs yet another question:

If they wanted modern fighters, why didn’t they ask for Swedish Gripen fighters, which can operate from improvised airfields, as opposed to F-16s?

According to an article in Business Insider in December, Russia has so far deployed over 770 modern fighter-bombers of the fourth generation or higher to Ukraine, out of the nearly 1,200 available. To succeed against this significant number, Ukraine would need hundreds more combat vehicles. Let’s face it, the chances of this are extremely slim.

And this raises a question to which we have no good and/or morally acceptable answer. What is NATO’s plan? More precisely: What is the plan of the current U.S. leadership, because Europe is irrelevant, militarily insignificant.

Getting away with defending Ukraine on the cheap? Not provoking the Russians too much? If Ukraine’s victory is so important, and some, like Denmark, are already acting at the expense of their own defense capabilities — why did they not hand over the assets constantly demanded for Ukraine’s defense earlier, say at the beginning of the conflict? As a reminder, the Danes donated all 19 of their French CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine without reimbursement.

The prerequisite of any consistent military equipment support to Ukraine — whatever the numbers so far — should be to clearly define the strategic objective NATO (and more pertinently, the United States) has regarding the war and the two countries involved in it. We have yet to see that definition.

The United Kingdom is expected to be the only G7 country to fall into recession in 2023, according to the latest estimates of the International Monetary Fund.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck details, annual GDP is set to contract some 0.6 percent in the coming year, predominantly due to higher taxes, rising interest rates and the high cost of energy as well as lower government spending.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The UK’s outlook has worsened since the IMF estimated a 2023 growth of 0.3 percent last October. Its prospects are now worse than those of sanction-hit Russia.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook does predict, however, that the UK’s output will grow by 0.9 percent in 2024.

As Statista’s chart shows, the other G7 member states are expected to see growth, even if only marginally, with Japan taking the lead with a 1.8 percent increase, followed by Canada (1.5 percent) and the United States (1.4 percent). Where the UK once

Via The Cradle,

The Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN issued a warning following the drone attack on a military facility in Isfahan, saying that any military action by the US against Iran would be regarded as a declaration of war and would be met with reprisal.

“In Iran’s perspective, the use of the military option at any level means US entry into the war. For now, Iran considers such a possibility to be weak,” Iran’s Permanent Mission to the UN told Newsweek on Tuesday.

According to the mission, if the US “miscalculates and launches a war,” it would only be able to hold itself responsible for the “consequences for the region and the globe,” adding that Iran would be able to protect its own interests and defend itself.

Washington has rejected and denied involvement in the Isfahan drone strike, which is also believed to be an Israeli-instigated attack.

“We’ve seen the press reports but can confirm that no US military forces have conducted strikes or operations inside Iran. We continue to monitor the situation but have nothing further to provide,” a Pentagon spokesperson was quoted by the magazine.

This comes after the Iranian Defense Ministry said in a statement on 29 January that air defense troops stopped a drone strike on a military facility in Isfahan. “One of the drones was hit by the … air defense, and the other two were caught in defense traps and blew up … Fortunately, this unsuccessful attack did not cause any loss of life and caused minor damage to the workshop’s roof,” the statement read.

Videos circulating on social media show the moment one of the drones was repelled by the facility’s defense systems, resulting in a blast. The attack “has not affected our installations and mission … and such blind measures will not have an impact on the continuation of the country’s progress,” the statement added.

Iran’s defence ministry has said in a statement that one of its munitions manufacturing centers in the city of Isfahan was attacked by three drones tonight, adding that one was hit by air defence and the other two were caught in defence traps and exploded.pic.twitter.com/BZiTEQRuig

— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) January 29, 2023

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel used drones to attack an advanced weapons systems factory in Isfahan. The Iranian Defense Ministry offered no information on who it suspected behind the attacks. However, Israel is likely to be the main suspect, as it has in the past been found to be behind many acts of sabotage against the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian condemned a “cowardly drone attack.” Tehran also said it would not halt its progress on a “peaceful nuclear program.”

Now finding itself a leading European decision-maker when it comes to provocative actions such as NATO allies sending main battle tanks for Ukraine, Germany is all too aware it is poking the Russian bear. And now as part of a drastic ramping up in defense spending, a complete about-face compared to just one year ago, Germany is looking to establish a nation-wide missile defense shield, at an immense overall cost.

“Germany is in talks with several defense manufacturers to build a multi-layered, anti-missile shield that could cost as much as €17 billion ($18.5 billion), according to people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg reports.  

According to more details, “Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government is in negotiations with Bavarian-based manufacturer Diehl Defence to procure up to eight IRIS-T anti-missile systems with a contract volume of €2 billion to €3 billion, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.”

These are expected to be but the first phase in implementing a comprehensive multi-layered system. Each IRIS-T battery can fire missiles over 40km to intercept fighter jets, drones, or in bound cruise missiles.

The irony with this latest news of the impending purchase is that Berlin actually supplied Ukraine before it supplied itself…

First, a Reuters report points out that “In October, Ukraine received the first of four IRIS-T air defence systems pledged by Germany to help Kyiv protect its cities from missile and drone attacks.”

But then the same report admits that “The German armed forces themselves do not currently own the system built by privately held German arms maker Diehl and considered among the world’s most advanced.”

Berlin is looking ahead at a moment many Western officials and pundits have expressed concern the Ukraine war could spread West, and deeper into Europe. At this moment it’s clear that Germany would be woefully unprepared if conflict showed up on its doorstep, especially after having sent costly advanced missile defense batteries off to Ukraine.

Via Remix News,

The Qatargate corruption scandal that has sent shockwaves through Brussels has also revealed that the key suspect, a “socialist” politician, enjoyed the “lifestyle of a movie star,” according to Hungarian newspaper Origo.

In this photo provided by the European Parliament, Greek politician and European Parliament Vice-President Eva Kaili, right, speaks during the European Book Prize award ceremony in Brussels, Dec. 7, 2022. (European Parliament via AP)

Caribbean holidays, glamorous parties in the clubs of Athens with supermodels, and luxury apartments. MEP Eva Kaili, the current star of the Brussels corruption scandal, appeared to have it all. Kaili turned out to not just be a socialist, but also a socialite who enjoyed a level of luxury quite out of place with the working-class principles that were once typically associated with the left.

Kaili bought a 169-square-meter luxury apartment in Psychiko, near Athens, Greece, in 2019 for €260,000, Alpha newspaper reported. Regarding the property, real estate consultant Paris Rigopoulos said that its objective value is estimated at €659,000 euros, while its market value is between €850,000 and €900,000.

As reported by Rena Kouvelioti, a journalist for Alpha, the MP’s apartment is located on the third and fourth floors and its price is estimated at €4,000 per square meter. According to press reports, the fourth floor of the apartment is used as an office and is connected to the floor below by an internal staircase.

According to her statements, Kaili bought the property in question after selling another apartment in the municipality of Anixi. The initial apartment, a 250 square meter property, was reportedly bought in 2009 for €291 000. Nine years later, she sold the property for €340,000. However, the tax office valued the property at only €214,000.

The significant difference of more than €100,000 she received and what the property was actually worth could raise questions in light of the corruption case.

Kaili has also bought three other properties. One is a 44 square meter apartment in Skoufa Street in Kolonaki, which she bought in 2005 for €66,000, where her company, founded on Nov. 30, had its headquarters. The apartment is currently valued at €52 215. Kaili also owns a house of 120 square meters in Thessaloniki, which she bought in 1997. She also owns a 53-square-meter apartment in Belgium, which she bought in 2015 for €175,000.

Coming back to the corruption scandal, the Financial Times mentions Kaili, who tried to represent the interests of Qatar in the European Parliament including visa-free travel for Qataris to Europe, as an insider of the other main suspect, Pier Antonio Panzeri. Her meetings with Qatari officials in Brussels, her visits to the Arab country, and her efforts to sabotage negative votes on Qatar may have been motivated by bribe money.

However, some MEPs argue that the bribes have had no real effect on EU policy.

“I have the impression that the (Panzeri) team tried to show the Qataris that they were working hard on their behalf, that’s why they made these efforts,” said Brando Benifei, head of the Italian Socialist delegation of the Democratic Party (PD), adding that he believed “they did not achieve any real results.”