Month: December 2023

Analysts Fear Possible Delays Of Grand Theft Auto VI Release

Analysts Fear Possible Delays Of Grand Theft Auto VI Release

Rockstar Games, owned by Take-Two Interactive Software, revealed on X on Monday evening that the “Grand Theft Auto VI” trailer leaked. 

“Our trailer has leaked, so please watch the real thing on YouTube…” Rockstar Games said. 

The trailer reveals that the sixth chapter of GTA is coming in 2025. 

“Grand Theft Auto VI continues our efforts to push the limits of what’s possible in highly immersive, story-driven open-world experiences,” said Sam Houser, Founder of Rockstar Games. 

Houser said, “We’re thrilled to be able to share this new vision with players everywhere.”

Some folks have been waiting a decade since GTA 5 was released in October 2013. 

Despite the trailer’s big debut, Wall Street analysts were not thrilled with the release date. 

Here’s more from Wall Street analysts (list courtesy of Bloomberg):  

Wedbush, Nick McKay and Michael Pachter (outperform)

  • Release date of 2025 implies it will either appear late in Take-Two’s FY25 (ending on March 31 of that year) or in the following fiscal year

  • Management’s revised statement on FY25 being “slightly below” $8b in bookings increased McKay and Pachter’s conviction on GTA VI launching in FY26

  • “There is still an outside chance that Grand Theft Auto VI could launch in FY:25, but it is worth noting that (calendar) 2025 includes three quarters in Take-Two’s FY:26 and just one in its FY:25”

Roth MKM, Eric Handler (buy)

  • Shares fell in post-market trading over concerns that GTA VI could be an FY26 release rather than FY25, though Handler says this is “overblown” and that he would be a buyer on weakness

  • Handler believes the game is scheduled for release in 4Q25, noting management’s FY25 outlook on slightly less than $8b in bookings

  • “Given the sizable pent-up demand for GTA VI, having a release date in the March quarter versus the September or December quarters should not have a material impact on sales”

Morgan Stanley, Matthew Cost (overweight)

  • Cost sees GTA VI as the “most important catalyst” Take-Two has seen in the past decade

  • With around 190 million units of GTA V sold since its release in 2013, Cost says GTA VI will “address a massive built-in audience and has clear potential to be the largest game of this console generation”

  • “In our view now is time for investors to engage with TTWO…and we see any pullback as a strong buying opportunity”

Stifel, Drew Crum (buy)

  • Key takeaway from the trailer is that GTA VI will be released in 2025; Crum senses that consensus was looking for a holiday 2024 release

  • “If there’s any disappointment concerning the timing of the game, we’d use weakness to initiate/add to positions“

  • PT raised to $175 from $167

Baird Equity Research, Colin Sebastian (outperform)

  • Sebastian was “impressed” with the graphics/details and expects a generally positive reception from fans

  • There may be some disappointment with generic 2025 release timing, but the overall game quality and commercial reception “are more important than landing in a specific quarter”

  • “We remain constructive on shares even as we shift some bookings from F25 due to a later release than previously contemplated in our model”

TD Cowen, Doug Creutz and Mei Lun Quach (outperform)

  • Trailer was roughly what the analysts expected — “long on spectacular visuals and ‘vibes’, but not showcasing any features”

  • “Given likely meaningful contributions from GTA VI in the post-launch window, this would be a relevant factor for guidance. Obviously, this means that any further delays likely push the game out of FY25 and into FY26.”

Jefferies, Andrew Uerkwitz (buy)

  • Trailer showing the game is coming in 2025 was “surprising,” Uerkwitz writes; notes that a February/March 2025 release date could deliver on Take-Two’s guidance of ~$8b bookings in FY25 and growth in 2026

  •  “There is still no exact release date, so fears of a delay into holiday 2025 and out of FY24 will immediately ensue”

Shares of Take-Two Interactive Software slumped as much as 1.5% in the US cash session. 

The biggest concern among analysts is uncertainty around the release date – with some fears of a possible 2026 release. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 17:10

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Court Rejects Lawsuit Seeking to End American Aid to Israel

From Friday’s decision by Magistrate Judge Virginia DeMarchi in Nguyen v. U.S. (N.D. Cal.):

Ms. Nguyen alleges that after hearing about the Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, she did “some research” on the internet and “learned that Israel is an apartheid government” and that “the U.S. government … has been supporting this apartheid government of Israel by sending them at least $3 billions [sic] of military aid each year.” She claims that U.S. aid to Israel violates the “Preamble of the Declaration of Independence,” the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act of 1986, and the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Ms. Nguyen requests “$5 trillion[ ] if a WWIII erupts; however since America is in debt of $31 trillion[ ], I’ll take a letter of apology [and end of U.S. aid to Israel] or $25,000 for turning in this lawsuit….

A court may authorize the commencement of a civil action in forma pauperis if it is satisfied that the applicant cannot pay the requisite filing fees. In evaluating such an application, the court should grant or deny IFP status based on the applicant’s financial resources alone and then independently determine whether the complaint withstands review under § 1915(e)(2)(B).

A court must dismiss a case filed without the payment of the filing fee whenever it determines that the action “(i) is frivolous or malicious; (ii) fails to state a claim on which relief may be granted; or (iii) seeks monetary relief against a defendant who is immune from such relief.” A complaint must include facts that are “more than labels and conclusions, and formulaic recitation of the elements of a cause of action will not do.” “Threadbare recitals of the elements of a cause of action, supported by mere conclusory statements, do not suffice.” A complaint is frivolous if “it ha[s] no arguable substance in law or fact.” …

Ms. Nguyen alleges that “Israel has been an apartheid state for many decades against the Palestinians” and that U.S. aid to its government violates the Declaration of Independence’s statement that “all men are created equal,” the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act of 1986. She also alleges that the United States violates the establishment clause of the First Amendment by “offer[ing] $3 billion a year in military aid to an apartheid government of Israel living on stolen HOLY land where Jesus was born and where the Hamas terrorists stated that their Muhammed died & went to heaven.” Ms. Nguyen claims that U.S. aid to Israel has harmed her by, among other things, causing “the mental illness of worrying that WWIII might erupt so I have to sue by writing this lawsuit to release my pain” and forcing her “to relinquish my American citizenship to go back to Vietnam to certify my disapproval of the [United States’] wrongdoing.”

As explained in more detail below, Ms. Nguyen’s claims are frivolous and have no plausible basis in law or fact. The complaint challenges U.S. aid to Israel and expresses a “generalized grievance against allegedly illegal government conduct.” Ms. Nguyen lacks Article III standing with respect to such challenge.

Ms. Nguyen’s first claim is based on the Declaration of Independence, but that founding document does not provide any basis for a private right of action against the United States or any other defendant.

Ms. Nguyen’s second claim refers to the Civil Rights Act of 1964, but the complaint does not specify which of the statute’s provisions Ms. Nguyen intends to invoke. See, e.g., 42 U.S.C. §§ 2000a (prohibiting discrimination in places of public accommodation); 2000d (prohibiting discrimination in federally funded programs); 2000e-2 (prohibiting discrimination in employment). To the extent Ms. Nguyen intends to rely on Title VI, 42 U.S.C. § 2000d, the Court notes that this provision applies to certain programs within the United States that receive federal funds, but does not apply to programs conducted by the federal government itself.

Ms. Nguyen’s third claim is based on the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act of 1986. That statute imposed significant sanctions against South Africa’s white minority government. However, it was repealed twenty years ago, and it does not apply to any of the facts alleged in the complaint.

Ms. Nguyen’s fourth claim is for violation of the establishment clause of the First Amendment, which provides that “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion …” The premise of the claim is Ms. Nguyen’s objection that U.S. military aid supports Israel’s occupation of “religious land.” Ms. Nguyen does not explain how she has any individual interest in the alleged U.S. support for Israel’s occupation of “religious land,” nor does she cite any other basis that could conceivably support such a claim against the United States itself or any of its officials.

Accordingly, the Court concludes that Ms. Nguyen fails to state a claim and that, as currently pled, her complaint is frivolous….

The post Court Rejects Lawsuit Seeking to End American Aid to Israel appeared first on Reason.com.

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Exclusive: Rand Paul Wants To Kill Electric Car Subsidies and Mandatory A.M. Radio


Sen. Rand Paul | Michael Brochstein/Sipa USA/Newscom

Sen. Rand Paul (R–Ky.) is trying to stop legislation that requires automakers to continue putting dashboard A.M. radio in cars. His new amendment to the A.M. radio bill would also eliminate electric vehicle subsidies.

Earlier this year, Sen. Ed Markey (D–Mass.) introduced the AM For Every Vehicle Act, with the explicit goal of ensuring “that this resilient and popular communication tool does not become a relic of the past.” A skeptic might respond that if A.M. radio is both resilient and popular, car manufacturers would continue to provide it—but eight of the 20 major automobile companies have ceased offering the service, according to Markey’s own press release. The market currently provides some cars that have A.M. radio and others that do not; yet a bipartisan group of lawmakers, including Sen. Ted Cruz (R–Texas) believe that the federal government must mandate it.

Enter Paul. On Tuesday, the senator introduced an amendment that would obviate the AM For Every Vehicle Act while also eliminating the electric vehicle tax credit.

“Mandating that all cars have AM radio is antithetical to any notion of limited government,” said Paul on the floor of the U.S. Senate.

Supporters of the AM For Every Vehicle Act contend that the service is necessary for public safety in that it communicates information about driving conditions and extreme weather. Of course, there are many, many other ways for drivers to get that information, including from any passenger’s cellphone. There’s nothing stopping automobile manufacturers from equipping cars with A.M. radio, but federal legislators who support the bill are effectively saying that they know better.

Cruz sparred with Paul over his amendment, asserting that the AM for Every Vehicle Act was really about protecting free speech. Paul disagreed strenuously.

“The debate over free speech, as listed in the First Amendment, is that government shall pass no law,” said Paul. “It has nothing to do with forcing your manufacturer to have AM radio. This legislation attempts to insert Congress’s judgment into a question best decided by American consumers.”

The post Exclusive: Rand Paul Wants To Kill Electric Car Subsidies and Mandatory A.M. Radio appeared first on Reason.com.

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Don’t Kill the Au Pair Program


A family and their au pair around a Thanksgiving table | Alex Nowrasteh

President Joe Biden’s administration is currently considering new regulations that will deny middle-class and upper-middle-class Americans crucial child care services, specifically hampering their ability to welcome au pairs into their families. Biden has proposed further regulating the federal au pair program, which will disproportionately burden highly skilled working mothers, maybe even to the point of driving more of them out of the workforce.

For me, this issue is personal. Like millions of families in the summer of 2020, my family faced a childcare crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The daycare our two young boys attended, aged one and three at the time, closed its doors, and our temporary nanny found another job. Fortunately, my wife and I were both healthy and able to work from home. But caring for two young children while working proved challenging.

We tried to find a solution and re-enrolled our boys in daycare, but it closed down for days at a time due to COVID cases. As a result, my wife and I had to take turns working and taking care of the children. I’d work during the morning and early afternoon, she’d work in the late afternoon and night. It was unsustainable.

Desperate, we finally considered hiring an au pair, a step we had never seriously considered before. The idea of having a stranger live with us seemed off-putting. We were not used to having help at home. We associated such arrangements with the super-rich who could afford butlers, maids, and private jets. But the pandemic left us no choice and convinced us to take the plunge. 

We are so glad we did.

We contacted an au pair agency and began interviewing au pairs within days. Due to COVID-related border closures enacted by the Trump administration, new au pairs weren’t coming to the United States, but those already here could switch families. After multiple interviews and in-person meetings, we decided we wanted to hire Neevoliah, who was originally from South Africa and had been with another family in San Francisco. She joined our family in early fall 2020. 

I stayed home with the kids while my wife went to the airport to pick up Neevoliah. Out of nervousness, I paced back and forth before they got home. What if we didn’t get along? What if she was messy? What if she was terrible with children or, God forbid, irresponsible? What if the kids hated her or my wife and I couldn’t stand her? What if it was just too weird to have a stranger live in our home? I had visions of conflict: passive-aggressive fights over the washing machine, yelling about the dishes, and having to fire her. 

But none of those things happened. Neevoliah was nice, pleasant, and responsible. It took about 20 minutes for us to get used to her living in our house. She joined our family, shared meals with us every day, and hung out with us on the weekends. We baked together, went to the store as a family, and shared our cultures. During the day, she watched the kids and took them all over the neighborhood to play. My wife and I could work, and the kids were safe and entertained. 

My kids love her, called her “Nee,” and had both a friend in her and another adult figure to set an example, discipline them, and guide them.

Having an au pair was not like having an employee living in our house, it was like having a cousin or a niece living with us. Neither my wife nor I expected to feel that bond with our au pair and our kids found somebody else who loved and cared for them. 

Hiring an au pair was the second-best decision we’ve made regarding our children (the best was having them). But the Biden administration’s proposed regulatory changes could end this program for us and thousands of other middle-class families. According to a new rule just released, the administration is proposing that wages be broadly determined by state minimum wage laws and calibrated upward based on an arbitrary tier system instead of the federal minimum wage, reducing the number of work hours, creating more complicated reporting schemes for hours worked and other requirements, and increasing the amount families must spend on education for au pairs. In short, every rule the Biden administration proposes will make it more expensive for families to hire au pairs and result in many fewer of them coming to the United States.

These changes would make it financially difficult for us and impossible for thousands of other Americans to continue hosting au pairs. In Virginia, where my family and I live, this regulation would increase the weekly wage we pay by 78.5 percent. Instead of hiring an au pair for another year, we may have to stop using the program. The fallout from a recent court ruling in Massachusetts bears this out.

In December 2019, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit ruled that Massachusetts’ high minimum wage applied to au pairs—a previously excluded category of workers. Beginning on January 1, 2020, the weekly wage for au pairs increased by 170 percent including a minor deduction for supplying free room and board. Predictably, the number of new au pairs moving to Massachusetts collapsed as middle-class families were priced out.

The number of new au pairs arriving in Massachusetts in 2022 was 68.1 percent below 2019—the year before the state’s minimum wage applied to au pairs. At the same time, the number of new au pairs arriving in states unaffected by the court’s ruling rose 4.4 percent. It was as if Massachusetts’ minimum wage created a permanent semi-closed border around Massachusetts that locked out au pairs.  

Now, the Biden administration is considering regulations that will do the same thing nationwide—denying middle-class American families, au pairs, and, particularly, my family the ability to utilize au pair services. If the U.S. sees any effect similar to what happened in Massachusetts, it could be catastrophic for working mothers—especially in blue states with higher minimum wages.  

The government started the au pair program to advance public diplomacy by increasing understanding and cultural exchange between Americans and foreigners. Indeed, one of the justifications for the new regulation is to maintain “position cultural immersion experiences.” But the downside of insisting on higher state and local minimum wages adjusted upward by a federal tier is that many fewer au pairs will be employed in the United States. That undermines the stated purpose of the program. 

When Neevoliah was still with us, we welcomed our third child to our family—a beautiful baby girl. Neevoliah loved our daughter immediately and their bond was tight—she took the best photos of her. Neevoliah had to leave a year after she joined our family. Since, we’ve had a few other au pairs and even managed to replicate that first experience again. We still talk with Nee even though she’s back in South Africa. Our kids FaceTime with her and, when they’re not talking with her, they talk about her like a member of the family because she is one. 

Regulating the au pair program out of existence would materially and financially harm families like mine. Our childcare situation would worsen, our youngest kids would have to go to daycare part of the day, and my wife (who works from home) would be burdened with even more responsibilities when I’m at the office. But the worst loss is the bond and emotional connection that we’d be prevented from forming with new au pairs—and the sadness that tens of thousands of other American families wouldn’t be able to discover it for themselves. 

The post Don't Kill the Au Pair Program appeared first on Reason.com.

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WTI Extends Losses To 5-Month Lows After API Reports Huge Crude Build At Cushing

WTI Extends Losses To 5-Month Lows After API Reports Huge Crude Build At Cushing

Oil prices fell for the fourth straight day to close at five-month lows today as US oil exports neared record highs amid record high domestic crude production flooding the market, overshadowing Saudi Arabia’s pledges that OPEC+ will deliver on its planned production cuts.

“The voluntary element of the deal left the markets questioning whether the supply reduction would actually come into effect,” said Fiona Cincotta, financial market analyst at StoneX.

Meanwhile, the demand outlook is being hurt by rising concerns about China, she said.

Non-OPEC countries are driving oil production growth, with the US, Brazil and Guyana contributing 1.4 million barrels per day, 0.43 million b/d and 0.2 million b/d, respectively. In 2024, the increase in non-OPEC production is likely to be in the range of 2 million b/d, according to ANZ Bank.

After across the board builds last week, expectations are for the first crude draw in seven weeks.

API

  • Crude +594k (-1.00mm exp)

  • Cushing +4.28mm – biggest build since April 2020

  • Gasoline +2.83mm (+700k exp)

  • Distillates +890k (+1.00mm exp)

Another week, another set of across-the-board inventory builds with Cushing stocks soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering at mid-November intraday lows around $72.40 ahead of the data and extended losses after the unexpected build…

If OPEC+ cuts achieve complete compliance, global stockpiles would decline by less than 350k b/d in 1H 2024 and 700k b/d for next year, RBC Capital Markets analysts said in a Dec. 3 note.

“We are re-entering a supply driven market, one that more closely resembles the decade leading into Covid-19 rather than the demand-led market seen in the post-pandemic era. And those types are markets are often fraught with bull traps”

Prices will likely remain volatile and potentially directionless until the market sees clear data points pertaining to the voluntary output cuts, analysts including Michael Tran said.

It’s also worth noting that oil prices are drastically decoupled from cyclical stocks…

So, who’s guessing right on growth?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 16:41

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Are You Still Middle Class?

Are You Still Middle Class?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via DailyReckoning.com,

Defining the middle class is a perpetually popular parlor game because it’s well-known that the foundation of widespread prosperity is a broad-based middle class and a sturdy ladder of social mobility that enables those below the middle class to work their way up to middle-class security.

The topic is also a perennial favorite because the middle class is losing ground. By basic measures of income, it’s slipped from 60% of the populace to 50%.

A strong case can be made that assessed by characteristics of middle-class security and prosperity rather than income, the middle class has effectively shrunk to 10% of households as only the top 30% of households earn enough to afford what was within reach of the top 60% in decades past.

By definition, the top 20% cannot be “middle class.” The top 20% is comprised of the upper-middle class, the wealthy and the super-wealthy (the 80–95% bracket, top 5% and top 1%).

Attempting to define the middle class by income alone is futile due to regional differences in costs and purchasing power. A $100,000 annual household income that will barely pay rent and necessities in a major metro city can stretch considerably further in smaller cities far from high-cost zones.

Regardless of income, households that are living paycheck to paycheck don’t qualify as middle class if we qualify “middle class” by the following characteristics…

What It Takes to Be Middle Class

In “Why the Middle Class Is Doomed” (April 2012) I listed five “threshold” characteristics of membership in the middle class:

1. Meaningful health care insurance (i.e. not phantom coverage that only kicks in after thousands of dollars are paid in cash).

2. Significant equity (25–50%) in a home or other real estate.

3. Income/expenses that enable the household to save at least 6% of its net income.

4. Significant retirement funds: 401(k)s, IRAs, etc.

5. The ability to service all debt and expenses over the medium term if one of the primary household wage earners loses their job.

I then added a taken-for-granted sixth:

6. Reliable vehicles for each wage earner that are fully covered by insurance.

Author Chris Sullins suggested adding these additional thresholds:

7. If a household requires government assistance (SNAP, Medicaid, rent subsidies, etc.) to maintain the family lifestyle, their middle class status is in doubt.

8. A percentage of non-financial hard assets such as family heirlooms, precious metals, business equity, rental income property, land, etc. that can be transferred to the next generation, i.e. generational wealth.

9. Ability to invest in offspring (education, extracurricular clubs/training, etc.).

10. Leisure time devoted to the maintenance of physical/spiritual/mental fitness.

Wait, There’s More

Correspondent Mark G. suggested two more features:

11. Continual accumulation of human and social capital (adding new skills, expanding social networks and markets for one’s services, etc.)

And the money shot:

12. Family ownership of income-producing assets such as rental properties, bonds, etc.

The key point of these thresholds is that propping up a precarious illusion of consumption and status signifiers does not qualify as middle class.

To qualify as middle class (that is, what was considered middle class a generation or two ago), the household must actually own/control wealth that won’t vanish if the investment bubble du jour pops, and won’t be wiped out by a medical emergency.

In Chris’ phrase, “They should be focusing resources on the next generation and passing on generational wealth” as opposed to “keeping up appearances” via aspirational consumption financed with debt.

Middle Class No Longer

So how much does it cost to meet these qualifying standards?

Two generations ago, public school teachers, health care workers, skilled craft workers and others with median-level incomes could meet all of these qualifications, for the purchasing power of their earnings was extremely high compared with now.

A median wage bought a lot of shelter, vehicle, health care, college education, etc.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, real median household income was $74,580 in 2022. (Source: Income in the United States: 2022).

This is the “middle income” that presumably qualifies as “middle class,” but it would take extreme frugality and sacrifices to stretch $75,000 to cover the qualifications listed above, even in low-cost regions.

As a general guideline, $75,000 would only stretch to meet these qualifications if:

1) the family home was owned free and clear, i.e. no mortgage, either via inheritance or extreme efforts such as building your own home with cash savings…

2) no student loan debt, either by gaining desirable skills outside college or completing college on scholarships, with family financial aid, etc., and no vehicle loan, i.e. a reliable used car/truck that is owned free and clear.

These may strike younger readers as impossible fantasies, but as I’ve often noted, 40 years ago I worked my way through a four-year university program with part-time jobs and built a house from scratch with only savings, income from temp construction jobs and a $5,000 bank loan ($17,000 in today’s dollars) which we paid off in two years.

Even with extreme frugality, this debt-free lifestyle is no longer within reach of the non-wealthy, as costs for college, land, permits and building materials have skyrocketed, along with the costs of health care, insurance, vehicles, childcare, etc.

You Need $150,000

I submit that for most households in higher-cost regions, these qualifications can only be met with an annual household income of $150,000 or more, which according to the Census Bureau is the cutoff level for the top 20% (top quintile) of American households.

According to the Census Bureau, the top 20% earn 52% of all income, and the top 5% earn 23.5% of all income. The top 10% of households have an income of $216,000 or higher, and the top 5% have incomes of $295,000 or higher. The top 1% bracket is $867,000 and up. (TableA-4a, Income in the United States: 2022).

In lower-cost regions, it may be possible for frugal households in the 70–80% income bracket to qualify. According to the Census Bureau, this bracket earns between $118,700–153,000.

This 10% might qualify as middle class. Households earning less would likely qualify only if they inherited significant wealth from their families or received substantial financial aid from their families, such as college paid for in full, a down payment for a home purchase, etc.

In summary: If we set minimum standards for qualifying as middle class by what was within reach of typical American households two generations ago, relatively few households qualify as middle class.

Unsustainable

Middle class means more than being able to charge a lavish cruise or foreign vacation on a credit card or buying a new truck with a huge loan. It once meant owning assets, not owing debt on assets.

The percentage of wealth owned by the 50–90% bracket — what we might consider middle class — has declined sharply as wealth has concentrated in the top 10%.

By way of example, the top 10% own 90% of stocks.

Wages are the bedrock of middle-class income and wealth accumulation, and here we see wages’ share of the national income has been in a free fall for 45 years. It has recently ticked up, but it is not yet clear if this is just another temporary blip or an overdue clawback of income that has predominantly flowed to capital.

Can an economy in which 10% of the households qualify as middle class claim to offer widespread opportunities for secure prosperity? No, it cannot.

“Middle class” isn’t just income or consumption; it demands a toehold of ownership of real assets that offer security, not a lifetime of debt servitude.

As security becomes increasingly precarious and unaffordable, self-reliance offers an alternative to a lifetime of debt servitude.

Like what you’ve read? Go here for more.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 16:20

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Lousy Labor Data Sends Yields Lower; Bitcoin, Big-Tech, & The Buck Soar

Lousy Labor Data Sends Yields Lower; Bitcoin, Big-Tech, & The Buck Soar

The post-November-FOMC plunge in US macro data continued today with bloodbathery hitting the labor market (JOLTs tumbled) but ISM Services beat providing another glimpse at ‘Goldilocks’ (especially with prices paid moderating too)…

Source: Bloomberg

The ‘bad’ news in JOLTs sparked a bid in bonds with the long-end outperforming (30Y -10bps, 2Y -5bps). The 10Y and 30Y yield is now below Friday’s lows while the 2Y yield remains above Friday’s lows…

Source: Bloomberg

…which flattened (further inverted) the yield curve (2s30s)…

Source: Bloomberg

Financial Conditions continue to loosen more and more dramatically – prompting some to fear this will force The Fed to act more hawkishly to reassert any sense of restrictive policy here…

Source: Bloomberg

And lower yields are ‘good’ news for long-duration stocks as after four straight down days, the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks surged higher today…

Source: Bloomberg

That rally managed to pull Nasdaq green on the day and leave S&P unchanged. Small Caps were the biggest loser, down over 1% after 4 straight days higher…

Apple’s market cap topped $3 trillion once again (the first time in four months)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged above $44,000 today – its sixth straight day higher…

Source: Bloomberg

…retracing half of the decline from the Nov 2021 to Nov 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

What happens next? Nobody knows but it looks a lot like 2020 for now…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, while ETH also rallied (topping $2300), it notably underperformed BTC as the SEC delayed its decision on the Ethereum Spot ETF…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the second day in a row to two-week highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold (spot) leaked lower again after yesterday’s record high spike back to around one-week lows..

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices slipped lower again, back to mid-Nov lows with WTI hovering above $72 ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, ‘Cyclical’ stocks have completely decoupled from the macro environment and oil market (with the latter agreeing on growth fears while for former have no fears at all)…

Source: Bloomberg

We bring this up because Goldman’s Bobby Molavi noted: “Another dynamic that worries me is the dislocations between leading indicators and market weighing machine.”

Corporates are increasingly pointing to softer consumer data and a weakening environment. We’re seeing that in a broad based manor through earnings (eg Mitchells and butler) but markets, at least at headline level, are shrugging this off. It sort of highlights the reality that the market is less of a pricing vehicle for the economy than it once was…as banks, industrials, oils, miners shrink as a share of the global markets in relation to tech, healthcare and luxury…

…we move towards a index’s that may be driven by fewer stocks (obvious statement i know given magnificent 7) but also perhaps less cyclical and less of leading indicator of the state of the economy.

Especially when all that matters is ‘liquidity’…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this trend set to continue? Is this why gold and crypto is flying once again?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 16:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/EIHLCsS Tyler Durden

Global Math and Reading Assessment Indicates Widespread Post-Pandemic Learning Loss


students in class | Photo 36904873 © Tyler Olson | Dreamstime.com

A recent global assessment of 15-year-olds’ math and reading skills shows that the United States lags far behind its peer nations in math while performing unexpectedly well in reading. The Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) test compares students from over 100 countries. The results from the 2022 test, the first since the pandemic, show major declines in American students’ math performance and a surprising stability in reading scores.

American students’ math performance has long lagged behind other countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a group of 38 industrialized countries primarily comprising nations in Europe and Asia. This trend continued in 2022, with the U.S. ranking 28th out of 37 OECD countries, scoring an average of 465 points on the test—7 points lower than the average score for OECD countries

U.S. scores declined sharply from 2018, the last time the test was administered before the pandemic, with scores dipping 13 points. But while this decline is concerning, it pales in comparison to the overall decline across OECD countries, whose average score decline was 17 points.

And this decline continued in OECD reading scores. Between 2018 and 2022, the OECD average reading score declined 9 points, while U.S. scores only declined a single point. In all, U.S. students had one of the lowest score declines among OCED countries. Only four countries—Korea, Israel, Italy, and Japan—saw improvements in reading scores between 2018 and 2022, while 18 OCED countries saw double-digit declines.

The United States’ performance on the PISA reading test is surprising, given documented declines in U.S. student reading performance following the pandemic. The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), also called the “Nation’s Report Card,” recently found historic declines in reading scores among 13-year-olds between 2020 and 2023.

It is unclear why American students’ reading scores on the PISA test remained stable while other countries, with varying pandemic school closure policies, performed worse. However, considering the numerous other comprehensive examinations showing U.S. math and reading declines, even greater declines among peer nations indicate a staggering volume of global post-pandemic learning loss.

The post Global Math and Reading Assessment Indicates Widespread Post-Pandemic Learning Loss appeared first on Reason.com.

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Russia Says OPEC+ Ready To Deepen Oil Output Cuts If Needed

Russia Says OPEC+ Ready To Deepen Oil Output Cuts If Needed

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

The OPEC+ group is ready to take additional measures and deepen the oil production cuts in the first quarter of 2024 to avoid volatility and speculation on the market, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday.

“The timely actions of OPEC+, thanks to which about 2.2 million barrels per day will be held off the market in the first quarter of next year, will allow the period of low demand to pass painlessly in the first quarter of 2024,” Novak told Russian news agency TASS.

“I would also like to note that if the current actions are not enough, OPEC+ countries are ready to take additional actions to eliminate speculation and volatility,” Novak added.  

Last week, OPEC+ announced 2.2 million bpd of cuts for the first quarter of 2024, but these include Saudi Arabia rolling over its voluntary cut, Russia deepening crude and fuel export cuts by 200,000 bpd, and several other OPEC+ members announcing voluntary production reductions for the first quarter of 2024.

Overall, the announcements after the meeting were underwhelming and failed to convince the market that OPEC+ hasn’t had disagreements over cuts and quotas leading to the meeting, as became evident from the lack of a group-wide cut.

The OPEC+ supply decision, which the market found unconvincing, will likely erase the expected deficit early next year but leaves the question ‘what’s next’ unanswered, analysts say.

Novak’s comments on Tuesday follow remarks from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who told Bloomberg on Monday that the OPEC+ production cuts could extend beyond March 2024 if the market requires it, criticizing commentators for failing to understand the output deal.

The Saudi energy minister suggested that this would change once “people see the reality of the deal”.

“I honestly believe that the 2.2 million will overcome the usual inventory build that usually happens in the first quarter,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 15:45

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Hoax-Funding LinkedIn Founder Who Bankrolled Trump Accuser Donates To Nikki Haley

Hoax-Funding LinkedIn Founder Who Bankrolled Trump Accuser Donates To Nikki Haley

Billionaire LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman – who apologized after he was caught funding a ‘Russian bot hoax’ against Republican Roy Moore in 2019 (archived), and more recently bankrolled Trump ‘rape is sexy’ accuser E. Jean Carroll, has a new focus in his quest to combat the Orange Menace™ currently dominating the 2024 Republican field:

Nimrata “Nikki” Haley…

Haley, a defense contractor’s wet dream, received a $250,000 contribution to her PAC from Hoffman, who also donated $759,600 to President Biden’s reelection effort.

Hoffman joins several other billionaires who have historically donated to Democrats, including JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon and investor Bill Ackman, who have expressed support for the former South Carolina governor in recent weeks. Dmitri Mehlhorn, who advises Hoffman on politics, confirmed the donation, which was first reported by the New York Times. –Bloomberg

Haley, whose poll numbers are on the rise vs. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, hopes to dislodge Trump as the party’s leader. Trump, meanwhile, is probably nonplussed by the whole thing.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 15:05

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