Yen’s Resilience Shows Bank Of Japan Is No Longer The Driver

Yen’s Resilience Shows Bank Of Japan Is No Longer The Driver

By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

The yen’s recent resilience even with evidence of cooling domestic inflation is a sign of things to come: the currency can do well even without the Bank of Japan having to come to its rescue.

Not in 16 months has Tokyo seen a lower inflation reading than what we got Tuesday. Another day, another time, the yen would have gone perhaps screamingly lower, for the outcome flies in the face of expectations that the Bank of Japan will exit negative interest rates soon. But the yen is holding its poise fine, thank you — underscoring how what is happening in the US economy may still offer the beleaguered currency some salve regardless of what the BOJ does or doesn’t do.

Suddenly, the lay of the land is looking a lot different for policymakers than the previous time they met on Oct. 31: that is when the 10-year JGB yield was hovering menacingly around 1%, forcing it to abandon its 1% yield cap and instead use it as just a “reference.” Yet, just weeks later, the yield is holding below 0.70% — meaning, even without an abandoning of the cap, there would have been little pressure on the BOJ to defend the curve.

In the real economy, too, there is little sign that the central bank should act when it meets in just two weeks. Consumer prices in Japan’s capital were forecast to have risen 3% in November, a reading that would have kept up the pressure on the BOJ to end almost eight years of dalliance with a sub-zero policy rate. Yet, prices rose just 2.6% — slow enough to cause policymakers to doubt whether they have found sustainable inflation after decades of trying. Agreed, it’s not the national CPI, but as colleague Erica Yokoyama points out, Tokyo’s figures offer a leading indication of the national trend

Ironically, the yen can still find respite against the dollar, what with inflation in the US slowing faster than estimated and obviating the need for the Federal Reserve to tighten more in this cycle. That may herald a period where nominal and inflation-adjusted yield differentials start to narrow meaningfully in favor of the yen for the first time since the Fed started pushing rates higher, putting a floor on a currency that has slumped a stunning 30% since the end of 2020.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 12:45

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Israel’s Ground Operation Is Raging For 1st Time In A Southern Gazan City

Israel’s Ground Operation Is Raging For 1st Time In A Southern Gazan City

For the first time since the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a ground attack on Gaza, dozens of tanks and infantry are now fighting in the heart of a major city in the southern half of the Strip.

Until now, the IDF was focusing its operations in the north but following last week’s temporary truce it has clearly expanded the combat focus also to the main southern city of Khan Younis – where the IDF believes Hamas’ top commanders are hiding.

Civilians have been fleeing Khan Younis after Israel began dropping leaflets, via Flash90

An IDF spokesman announced Tuesday, “We are in the heart of Jabaliya, in the heart of Shejaiya and from this evening, also in the heart of Khan Younis.” The former named locations are in the north near Gaza City.

This is the most intense day [of battles] since the start of the [ground] maneuver, in terms of terrorists killed, the number of engagements and the use of fire from the ground and the air,” the spokesman said.

Tanks were first spotted positioned outside Khan Younis this past weekend and at the start of the week. The city had a pre-war population of some 300,000 to 400,000+, but may have tripled since the start of the conflict, given civilians were urged to abandon their homes in the north and flee to the south.

Israeli army Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi declared Tuesday that the operation has moved to a southern phase after key terror strongholds in the north have been secured. Within the 24 hours prior to the announcement, there were widespread reports of a total communications and internet cutoff to the whole of Gaza.

“Sixty days after the war began, our forces are now encircling the Khan Younis area in the southern Gaza Strip,” he said. “We have secured many Hamas strongholds in the northern Gaza Strip, and now we are operating against its strongholds in the south.”

UNRWA’s Gaza chief, Thomas White, has also said the IDF is currently ordering civilians to leave as Khan Younis has become a “dangerous fighting zone.” This move on the south has sparked international outrage given civilians were for prior weeks told to flee to places like Khan Younis.

UN agencies have underscored however that there’s nowhere to go. “Nowhere is safe in Gaza and there is nowhere left to go,” the UN humanitarian coordinator for the Palestinian territories Lynn Hastings said. “If possible, an even more hellish scenario is about to unfold, one in which humanitarian operations may not be able to respond,” Hastings added.

Additionally, 972 Magazine while reporting from on the ground describes of the deteriorating situation for civilians who thought they were in a ‘safe zone’:

The last days have been the hardest we have experienced since the war began, here in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis. Until last Friday, this area was designated a “safe zone” — a farcical description considering the Israeli army has bombed the city non-stop, but one that nonetheless brought an influx of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians from the northern parts of the Strip, which Israeli troops have directly occupied for more than a month. Now, the army’s invasion of southern Gaza is underway, and residents have nowhere to run.

Salvos of rockets from Gaza continue to rain down on southern and central Israel, also as sporadic rocket fire from Hezbollah has continued in the north. Most of these rockets have been intercepted, but in some cases have hit buildings or schools.

Hamas has newly published the following combat footage showing engagement with IDF tank & ground crews in Khan Younis…

As of Tuesday morning, the IDF confirmed that five more troops had been killed in Gaza fighting the day prior. Currently the official death toll for the IDF stands at 80 Israel soldiers killed in combat. Some war monitors believe the actual death toll could be a lot higher given that Hamas has long honed deadly guerilla tactics, however.

As for the Palestinian side, Gaza sources are saying that over 15,200 mostly civilians have been killed. But Israel’s military has claimed to have taken out some 5,000 Hamas militants, and thus has disputed the stats issued from Gaza’s health ministry. 

* * *

Map via BBC showing what was previously, but no longer, deemed a safe zone:

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 12:25

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CDC Replaces ‘Pregnant Women’ With ‘Pregnant People’ In Vaccine Guidance

CDC Replaces ‘Pregnant Women’ With ‘Pregnant People’ In Vaccine Guidance

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The CDC has wiped references to ‘pregnant women’ or ‘pregnant woman’ in vaccine guidance and replaced them with terms like ‘pregnant people’ and ‘pregnant parent’ in an effort to become ‘gender neutral’.

Other gender specific terms such as ‘she’, ‘her’, and ‘mother’ have also been resigned to the dustbin of history by the CDC.

Here is a screenshot from the guidance on flu vaccines:

Stella O’Malley, a psychotherapist and director of Genspect, told The Daily Mail that the move creates a “dangerous” precedent, noting “There was no need to replace the word ‘woman’ with the words ‘pregnant person.’ In medical matters, clarity and simplicity should be prioritized so that everyone can understand what is involved.”

“Some people, especially those for whom English is not a first language, will not understand what is meant by ‘pregnant people’ yet they would readily understand ‘mothers,’” she continued, adding “It’s an appalling example of how politics is increasingly interfering with medicine.”

The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) accused the CDC of “cowering to political forces.”

Dr. Jane Orient, executive director of AAPS, charged that “A small minority but highly influential entities, are trying to change language, Orwellian style, to force acceptance of an absurdity.”

“All pregnant persons are women. A trans man is a woman who is trying to alter her body to resemble a man’s,” Dr. Orient said, adding “She is endangering her baby’s health if she is taking testosterone. The CDC ought to be warning about that.”

Similar moves in Britain by the National Health Service have come under recent scrutiny.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 12:05

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Tesla On Pace To Shatter Delivery Record In China

Tesla On Pace To Shatter Delivery Record In China

With the excitement of last week’s Cybertruck reveal behind Tesla, attention now turns back to where the rubber meets the road: selling cars.

And in China, at least, it looks as though Tesla’s continued strategy of aggressive pricing is still paying off. In fact, Tesla is now on a pace to reach its best ever deliveries number in China, where the market has been saturated with EV competition. 

Last week, Tesla insurance registrations in China reached 17,600, marking a 5.4% increase from the previous week’s 16,700, according to Investors Business Daily. This count marks the fifth full week since Tesla started delivering its revamped Model 3 in China.

As the report notes, the data does not differentiate between Model 3 and Model Y registrations, but “so far in Q4 Tesla China insurance registrations, a rough gauge for vehicle deliveries, total 104,500 for the quarter, up more than 3% compared to the same point in Q3,” the report notes.

IBD wrote on Tuesday morning that the number marks a 10% rise from Q2, where Tesla set a record of 156,676 vehicles delivered. 

In November, Tesla reported the sale of 82,432 vehicles manufactured in China, a 14.3% rise from October’s 72,115, reversing two consecutive months of declining sales, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). 

Tesla also confirmed on Monday that two of its Model 3 versions in the U.S. will no longer qualify for the full $7,500 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credit. Starting January 1, 2024, the rear-wheel drive and long-range trims of the Model 3 will only be eligible for a $3,750 credit, as stated on Tesla’s website.

Recall, the automaker started deliveries of its Cybertruck last week. During Tesla’s Cybertruck delivery event last week, Elon Musk showcased once more that the electric truck’s 301 stainless steel exoskeleton can withstand 9mm and .45 ACP bullets.

The truck boasts two models, a 600-hp dual-motor AWD model and an 845-hp tri-motor “Cyberbeast” model. As Car and Driver noted, Tesla says “the Cybertruck can tow up to 11,000 pounds and has an estimated driving range of up to 340 miles.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 11:45

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Making the rubble bounce in Montana

In this episode, Paul Stephan lays out the reasoning behind U.S. District Judge Donald W. Molloy’s decision enjoining Montana’s ban on TikTok. There are some plausible reasons for such an injunction, and the court adopts them. There are also less plausible and redundant grounds for an injunction, and the court adopts those as well. Asked to predict the future course of the litigation, Paul demurs. It will all depend, he thinks, on the Supreme Court’s effort to sort out social media and the first amendment in the upcoming term. In the meantime, watch for bouncing rubble in the District of Montana courthouse. (Grudging credit for the graphics goes to Bing’s Image Creator, which refused to accept the prompt until I said the rubble was bouncing because of a gas explosion and not a bomb. Way to discredit trust and safety, Bing!)

Jane Bambauer and Paul also help me make sense of the litigation between Meta and the FTC over children’s privacy and the Commission’s previous consent decrees. A recent judicial decision has opened the door for the FTC to modify an earlier court-approved order – on the surprising ground that the order was never incorporated into the judicial ruling that approved it. This in turn gave Meta a chance to make an existential constitutional challenge to the FTC’s fundamental organization, a challenge that Paul thinks the Supreme Court is likely to take seriously.

Maury Shenk and Paul analyze the “AI security by design” principles drafted by the U.K. and adopted by an ad hoc group of nations that showed a split in the EU’s membership and pulled in parts of the Global South. As diplomacy, it was a coup. As security policy, it’s mostly unsurprising. I complain that there’s little reason for special security rules to protect users of AI, since the threats are largely unformed, though Maury pushes back. What governments really seem to want is not security for users but  security from users, a paradigm that diverges from decades of technology policy.

Maury requests listener comments on his recent AI research and examines Meta’s divergent view on open source AI technology. He offers his take on why the company’s path might be different from Google’s or Microsoft’s.

Jane and I are in accord in dissing California’s aggressive new AI rules, which appear to demand a public notice every time a company uses a spreadsheets containing personal data to make a business decision. I predict that it will be the most toxic fount of unanticipated tech liability since Illinois’s Biometric Information Privacy Act.

Maury, Jane and I explore the surprisingly complicated questions raised by Meta’s decision to offer an ad-free service for around $10 a month.

Paul and I explore the decline of global trade interdependence and the rise of a new mercantilism. Two cases in point: the U.S. decision not to trust the Saudis as partners in restricting China’s AI ambitions and China’s weirdly self-defeating announcement that it intends to be an unreliable source of graphite exports to the United States in future.

Jane and I puzzle over a rare and remarkable conservative victory in tech policy: the collapse of Biden administration efforts to warn social media about foreign election meddling.

Finally, in quick hits,

  • I cover the latest effort to extend section 702 of FISA, if only for a short time.
  • Jane notes the difficulty faced by Meta in trying to boot pedophiles off its platforms.
  • Maury and I predict that the EU’s IoT vulnerability reporting requirements will raise the cost of IoT.
  • I comment on the Canadian government’s deal with Google to implement the Online News Act

Download 484th Episode (mp3)

You can subscribe to The Cyberlaw Podcast using iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, Pocket Casts, or our RSS feed. As always, The Cyberlaw Podcast is open to feedback. Be sure to engage with @stewartbaker on Twitter. Send your questions, comments, and suggestions for topics or interviewees to CyberlawPodcast@gmail.com. Remember: If your suggested guest appears on the show, we will send you a highly coveted Cyberlaw Podcast mug! The views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers and do not reflect the opinions of their institutions, clients, friends, families, or pets

The post Making the rubble bounce in Montana appeared first on Reason.com.

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The Best of Reason: Will Russia Ever Be Free?


The Best of Reason Magazine on yellow grid background | Joanna Andreasson

This week’s featured article is “Will Russia Ever Be Free?” by Cathy Young.

This audio was generated using AI trained on the voice of Katherine Mangu-Ward.

Music credits: “Deep in Thought” by CTRL and “Sunsettling” by Man with Roses

The post <I>The Best of Reason</I>: Will Russia Ever Be Free? appeared first on Reason.com.

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Wall Street Analysts Are Optimistic For 2024

Wall Street Analysts Are Optimistic For 2024

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It’s that time of the year where Wall Street polishes up their crystal balls and pin targets on the S&P index for the upcoming year. As is often the case, while Wall Street is always optimistic, the forecasts prove pretty wrong.

For example, on December 7th, 2021, we wrote an article about the predictions for 2022.

“There is one thing about Goldman Sachs that is always consistent; they are ‘bullish.’ Of course, given that the market is positive more often than negative, it ‘pays’ to be bullish when your company sells products to hungry investors.

It is important to remember that Goldman Sachs was wrong when it was most important, particularly in 2000 and 2008.

However, in keeping with its traditional bullishness, Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin forecasted the S&P 500 will climb by 9% to 5100 at year-end 2022. As he notes, such will “reflect a prospective total return of 10% including dividends.”

The problem, of course, is that the S&P 500 did NOT end the year at 5100.

Then, in 2022, Wall Street analysts suggested that 2023 would be a year of meager return of just 3.9% with a median price target of 4000.

Of course, reality turned out to be markedly different.

However, the guessing game is an annual tradition of Wall Street analysts and, as is always the case, to borrow a quote:

“(Market) Predictions Are Difficult…Especially When They Are About The Future” – Niels Bohr

Okay, I took a little poetic license, but the point is that while we try, predictions of the future are difficult at best and impossible at worst. If we could accurately predict the future, fortune tellers would win all the lotteries, psychics would be richer than Elon Musk, and portfolio managers would always beat the index.

However, all we can do is analyze what occurred previously, weed through the noise of the present, and discern the possible outcomes of the future. The biggest problem with Wall Street, both today and in the past, is the consistent disregard of the unexpected and random events they inevitability occur.

We have seen plenty, from trade wars to Brexit, to Fed policy and a global pandemic in recent years. Yet, before those events caused a market downturn, Wall Street analysts were wildly bullish that wouldn’t happen.

So what about 2024? We have some early indications of Wall Street targets for the S&P 500 index, and, as is always the case, they are primarily optimistic for the coming year.

“The estimates from sell-side strategists put the average target for the S&P 500 at 4,836 for the end of 2024, implying an advance of merely 6.3% from Monday’s close, according to MarketWatch calculations of the data (see table below). That is below the average yearly return of around 8% for the large-cap index since 1957 and its year-to-date surge of 18.5% in 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data.” – MorningStar

Will next year be another bull market year for stocks, or will the bear finally come out of hibernation? We don’t have a clue but can make educated guesses about ranges given current valuations.

Estimating The Outcomes

The problem with current forward estimates is that several factors must exist to sustain historically high earnings growth.

  1. Economic growth must remain more robust than the average 20-year growth rate.

  2. Wage and labor growth must reverse to sustain historically elevated profit margins, and,

  3. Both interest rates and inflation must reverse to very low levels.

While such is possible, the probabilities are low, as strong economic growth can not exist in a low inflation and interest-rate environment. More notably, if the Fed cuts rates, as most economists and analysts expect next year, such will be in response to a near-recessionary or recessionary environment. Such would not support current strong earnings estimates of $220.24 per share next year. This represents roughly 20% from Q3-2023 levels, which is the most recently completed quarter.

Nonetheless, with that said, we can use the current forward estimates, as shown above, to estimate both a recession and non-recession price target for the S&P 500 as we head into 2024. These assumptions are based on valuation multiples within ranges of current market levels.

In the NO-recession scenario, the assumption is that valuations will fall slightly as earnings increase to 22x earnings over the next year. (22x earnings has been the average over the last few years.) The S&P 500 should theoretically trade at roughly 4845 by 2024 based on current estimates. Given the market is trading at approximately 4550 (at the time of this writing), such would imply a 6.5% increase from current levels.

However, should the economy slip into a mild recession, valuations would be expected to revert toward the longer-term median of 17x earnings. Such would imply a level of 3744 or roughly a 17% decline next year.

While an additional 17% decline from current levels seems hostile, such would align with typical recessionary bear markets.

Which would also coincide with Fed rate cuts to offset the deflationary risk to the economy.

However, we must consider one more scenario.

Maybe The Bulls Are Right

We would be remiss in not providing for a bullish outcome in 2024. However, we must consider several factors for that bullish outcome to take shape.

  1. We assume the $220/share in year-end estimates remains valid.

  2. That the economy avoids a recession even as inflation falls

  3. The Federal Reserve pivots to a lower interest rate campaign.

  4. Valuations remain static at 22x earnings.

In this scenario, the S&P 500 should rise from roughly 4550 to 5395 by the end of 2024. Such would imply an 18.5% gain for the year. Given the market is up approximately 19% in 2023, such a gain

The chart below combines the three potential outcomes to show the range of possible outcomes for 2024. Of course, you can do the analysis, make valuation assumptions, and derive your targets for next year. This is just a logic exercise to develop a range of possibilities and probabilities over the next 12 months.

Conclusion

Here is our concern with the bullish scenario. It entirely depends on a “no recession” outcome, and the Fed must reverse its monetary tightening. The issue with that view is that IF the economy does indeed have a soft landing, there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to reverse reducing its balance sheet or lower interest rates.

More importantly, the rise in asset prices eases financial conditions, which reduces the Fed’s ability to bring down inflation. Such would also presumably mean employment remains strong along with wage growth, elevating inflationary pressures.

While the bullish scenario is possible, that outcome faces many challenges in 2024, given the market already trades at fairly lofty valuations. Even in a “soft landing” environment, earnings should weaken, which makes current valuations at 22x earnings more challenging to sustain.

Our best guess is that reality lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, there is a bullish scenario where earnings decline and a monetary policy reversal leads investors to pay more for lower earnings. But that outcome has a limited lifespan as valuations matter to long-term returns.

As investors, we should hope for lower valuations and prices, which gives us the best potential for long-term returns. Unfortunately, we don’t want the pain of getting there.

Regardless of which scenario plays out in real-time, there is a reasonable risk of weaker returns over the next year than what we saw in 2023.

That is just the math.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 11:25

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Trump Campaign Hits Back Against ‘Dictator’ Hit-Piece In WaPo, Gaetz Says ‘Green-Lighting Assassination’

Trump Campaign Hits Back Against ‘Dictator’ Hit-Piece In WaPo, Gaetz Says ‘Green-Lighting Assassination’

Over the last week, several outlets published articles warning that a second Trump term would turn America into a dictatorship.

The Washington Post most notably ran a piece written by Robert Kagan, husband of Former State Department official Victoria Nuland (who was deeply involved in peddling the Steele dossier) titled “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending.”

Many suggested this was a clear call to assassinate the former US President.

Let’s stop the wishful thinking and face the stark reality: There is a clear path to dictatorship in the United States, and it is getting shorter every day. In 13 weeks, Donald Trump will have locked up the Republican nomination.

[…] Are we going to do anything about it? To shift metaphors, if we thought there was a 50 percent chance of an asteroid crashing into North America a year from now, would we be content to hope that it wouldn’t? Or would we be taking every conceivable measure to try to stop it, including many things that might not work but that, given the magnitude of the crisis, must be tried anyway?

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) said in response on X, “They’re obviously green-lighting assassination.”

In addition to the post, The Atlantic and the NY Times have also published stories warning of a “Trump dictatorship” in recent days, with the Times suggesting that a second Trump term would likely be more radical than his first, The Hill reports.

“All of these articles calling Trump a dictator are about one thing: legitimizing illegal and violent conduct as we get closer to the election,” wrote Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) on X. “Everyone needs to take a chill pill.”

“It’s August 2016 all over again. Skyrocketing cost of health care has millions worried. President Trump’s Dem. opponent off the campaign trail & hiding from the press,” wrote senior Trump adviser Jason Miller on X, adding “Dems & their media allies have given up on debating issues & have shifted to name-calling & rhetorical fearmongering.”

Trump campaign responds

“This is nothing more than another version of the media’s failed and false Russia collusion hoax,” said Trump spox Steven Cheung, referring to The Atlantic‘s project to devote their January/February issue to analyzing what a second Trump term would mean for immigration, civil rights, the Justice Department, climate and more.

Other Trump allies similarly chimed in, with Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) saying that the Atlantic is using “the same hysterical scare tactics from 2016 & 2020 to attack Trump,” while Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) said in response to WaPo that the left has gone into “FULL PANIC Mode,” and said that instead – a second Trump term would mean “the end of dictators in America, NOT the beginning.”

Meanwhile Trump’s detractors, such as Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), told MSNBC last month that a second Trump term “would look a lot like Viktor Orban in Hungary — illiberal democracy, meaning democracy without rights, or liberties, or respect for the due process, the system, the rule of law.”

Liz in the wings

This was hard to write with a straight face… Liz Cheney on Tuesday even floated the idea of running as a 3rd party candidate to disrupt Trump’s momentum.

I certainly hope to play a role in helping to ensure that the country has … a new, fully conservative part,” she told USA Today, adding “And so whether that means restoring the current Republican Party, which … looks like a very difficult if not impossible task, or setting up a new party, I do hope to be involved and engaged in that.”

“I think that the situation that we’re in is so grave, and the politics of the moment require independents and Republicans and Democrats coming together in a way that can help form a new coalition, so that may well be a third-party option,” she continued.

Talk about delusions of grandeur!

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 11:05

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The Supreme Court Case That Could Upend Parts Of The Tax Code

The Supreme Court Case That Could Upend Parts Of The Tax Code

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court on Dec. 5 will take up an important but little-noticed case about “unrealized” income that considers the constitutional limitations on federal taxing power.

The case is significant because the court could use it to strike down the Mandatory Repatriation Tax (MRT), also known as the Section 965 transition tax, which was part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act approved by the Republican-controlled Congress in 2017 and signed into law by then-President Donald Trump.

Conservative constitutionalists say if the Supreme Court finds that the MRT violates the 16th Amendment to the Constitution, such a legal precedent could prevent Congress from enacting legislation to tax wealth.

Wealth tax proposals regularly surface in Congress. For example, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) recently introduced a plan to tax the unrealized capital gains of high earners.

The Internal Revenue Service building in Washington on Jan. 24, 2023. The current Supreme Court case could change the tax code. (STEFANI REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)

Liberal groups worry that invalidating the tax law could unleash chaos.

The left-leaning Institute on Taxation and Economy Policy said the case “could become the most important tax case in a century.”

That’s because “a broad ruling could destabilize our tax system, enrich many profitable corporations, and widen existing economic and racial inequalities.”

Since the 1960s, corporations have been able to move income across borders to avoid taxation. If the law is erased, “the floodgates to offshore tax dodging” could be opened “on a scale never seen before,” the group said in a recent commentary.

The 2017 law changed the way foreign income of U.S. corporations was taxed. Lawmakers created the tax because in their view too much money was being invested abroad and not benefiting U.S. tax coffers.

Before the change, much of that income wasn’t taxed until it returned, or was repatriated, to the United States. To transition to the new system, Congress imposed a one-time tax on outstanding unrepatriated foreign earnings of U.S. corporations.

KisanKraft supplies power tools to small-scale, individual Indian farmers with the aim of helping to make their operations more productive. The Moores had owned KisanKraft shares for more than a decade but never received any income from the shares because the company plowed all its profits back into the business. (Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

The law taxes U.S. corporate earnings abroad going back 30 years, even if the earnings haven’t been distributed. The statute also applies to U.S. taxpayers with 10 percent or more of shares in an overseas corporation as of the end of 2017.

That means taxing people on income they never received and never owned, according to the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), which is providing legal representation to plaintiffs Charles and Kathleen Moore.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2018 that the law would lead corporations to have a one-time tax liability of $347 billion.

The Moores, a married couple from the state of Washington, claim this tax violates the Constitution’s requirement that direct federal taxes must be apportioned among the states, as well as the Constitution’s prohibition against retroactive taxation.

The court agreed on June 26 to hear the case, Moore v. United States (court file 22-800). At least four of the nine justices had to vote to grant the petition for the case to move forward.

The Moores ended up in court after they invested in an India-based company founded by a friend. KisanKraft supplies power tools to small-scale, individual Indian farmers with the aim of helping to make their operations more productive. The Moores had owned KisanKraft shares for more than a decade but never received any income from the shares because the company plowed all its profits back into the business.

Unexpected IRS Bill

But after the new tax was enacted, the Moores received an unexpected tax bill from the IRS for $14,729 for additional income tax they owed, despite having never received any payments from KisanKraft.

Although such profits aren’t ordinarily considered income unless shareholders either receive dividends or sell the shares for a capital gain, the MRT attempts to tax these funds as income by simply declaring them to be taxable income, which is a legal fiction, according to the CEI.

The Moores lost in U.S. district court, appealed, and lost again. They asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit to rehear the case after a circuit panel affirmed the district court’s dismissal of the action seeking to invalidate the tax law provision, but on Nov. 22, 2022, a divided 9th Circuit again denied the couple’s petition.

“There is no constitutional prohibition against Congress attributing a corporation’s income pro-rata to its shareholder,” the appeals court ruled.

Four of the circuit judges dissented from the decision to deny rehearing.

Judge Patrick Bumatay, who was appointed by President Trump, wrote that the court erred in disregarding the realization requirement of the 16th Amendment by allowing an unapportioned direct tax on unrealized income—undistributed earnings of a foreign corporation owned by a U.S. taxpayer—without offering any other limiting principle.

A copy of the U.S. Constitution in Washington on Dec. 17, 2019. (Andrew Harnik-Pool/Getty Images)

The court opinion opens the door to new federal taxes on other kinds of wealth and property being categorized as an “income tax” without the constitutional requirement of apportionment, the judge said.

The Biden administration argues that the MRT is constitutional, and had urged the court not to hear the case.

The 16th Amendment

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act “appears to be working largely as Congress envisioned,” U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar wrote in a brief filed with the court on May 16.

In a follow-up brief on Oct. 16, Ms. Prelogar said, “The Sixteenth Amendment authorizes Congress to tax shareholders’ pro rata shares of undistributed corporate earnings as income.”

But legal experts suggest the 16th Amendment is the obstacle that could be the tax’s undoing.

The amendment was enacted to allow the federal government to levy an income tax. Congress had previously tried to impose an income tax but its efforts were stymied by the Supreme Court.

A pedestrian walks toward the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on June 5, 2023. The Supreme Court will hear a significant tax case on Dec. 5, 2023, and will hand down a decision by June 2024. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Ratified in 1913, the 16th Amendment states: “The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.”

Attorney Steven A. Engel of the Dechert law firm in Washington told The Epoch Times that the Biden administration “takes the position that the definition of income is malleable and subject to Congress’s discretion.”

“The Supreme Court has previously recognized that income requires ‘realization.’ It requires that the taxpayer actually received the money, and the Congress cannot eliminate that requirement without complying with the apportionment requirement of the Constitution.”

Mr. Engel, who filed a friend-of-the-court brief in the case on behalf of Americans for Tax Reform, acknowledged that the concept of “apportionment” is elusive to many people.

“The founders were concerned that Congress [should] not be able to tax directly certain forms of property in a way that created unequal burdens among the states. So they allowed Congress to impose taxes on transactions, like excises or duties, which people could avoid by not engaging in those transactions.

“But if Congress were going to directly tax property, such as a land tax, Congress would have to do that in a way that fell equally among all the states, which [is hard to do] because there is an uneven distribution of property—land is cheaper in some states than in others.”

A woman participates in a Tea Party rally to protest against the Internal Revenue Service’s targeting Tea Party and grassroots organizations for harassment, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on June 19, 2013. (Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

The 16th Amendment, however, allowed Congress to tax income, and was added after the Supreme Court ruled that under certain circumstances income taxes could be direct taxes, Mr. Engel said.

“So the question posed by the Moore case is, ‘What is the definition of income under the 16th Amendment?’ And specifically, ‘Can Congress do away with the realization requirement?’”

Unfavorable Appeals Court Ruling

The 9th Circuit said there was no need for there to be a realization requirement in the Moores’ case because under the MRT they are being taxed based on their stock ownership, that is, their share of the accumulated earnings of the foreign company over the past 30 years, even though they have not received any of the money themselves, Mr. Engel said.

Although the Moores argued the MRT was a tax on their property, the circuit court said, “If Congress says it’s income, it’s income, even if you didn’t realize that income,” Mr. Engel said.

It’s difficult to predict what the Supreme Court will do in this case, but generally the court “does not grant cases unless it has a concern with the correctness of the lower court opinion,” he said.

“There was something about the 9th Circuit decision that at least four justices thought was worthy of the court’s review and potential correction.”

A customer enters a Block Advisors tax preparation office in San Anselmo, Calif., on April 15, 2019. April 20 is the deadline for U.S. residents to file their income tax returns. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Attorney Jim Burling, vice president of legal affairs for the Pacific Legal Foundation, a national nonprofit public interest law firm that challenges government abuses, also spoke to The Epoch Times.

The MRT is “a very limited wealth tax” that applies to unrealized capital gains abroad, he said.

“But the implications are absolutely huge. Because if you can impose a wealth tax, and it doesn’t have to be apportioned among the states … then the chances that the federal government would impose one and try to go after our assets are huge.

“We don’t know exactly what the court is going to do as far as … direct versus indirect tax, and the implications are huge as far as what future taxation of Americans could be.”

Mr. Burling predicts the Moores will prevail.

“I think the Supreme Court is going to reject the idea that you can have a wealth tax because that really requires a Constitutional amendment, not a questionable interpretation of an ambiguous statement in the Constitution,” he said.

“I think the court is going to be askance at this end-run around because this is essentially a wealth tax, [and is] essentially what Congress attempted to do as an income tax before the Constitution was amended to allow the income tax.”

Steven J. Allen, a distinguished senior fellow at Capital Research Center, a watchdog group, said his concern is that if the Supreme Court doesn’t strike down the MRT, there will be little to stop Congress from levying new and large taxes in the future.

“There are always enough Republicans who will join with the Democrats to raise taxes, which helps to explain the current high tax level that we have,” Mr. Allen told The Epoch Times.

“The fear is that the people who support raising taxes are always looking for different ways to do it. And if they can come up with a tax on the number of miles you drive in your car, then they will put that in there. If they can come up with a tax on wealth, then they will enact a tax on wealth.

“History shows that higher taxes don’t necessarily increase revenue. Yet, that’s the theory they’re operating on,” Mr. Allen said.

“I think that it’s just important to restrict the power of government to tax whenever you can, because the power to tax is the power to destroy—that’s a famous legal principle—and you want to limit the destructive power of government.

“That’s what the Constitution is about,” Mr. Allen said.

Former U.S. Solicitor General Paul Clement expressed the same concern at a Sept. 20 event hosted by The Heritage Foundation, a think tank.

Former U.S. Solicitor General Paul Clement (R) talks to reporters outside the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on March 25, 2014. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

If the MRT is upheld, “then there’s no reason for the federal government to wait until you actually take money from your stocks that have appreciated over time and take it as a capital gain,” he said.

“I think the issue here is much more important than meets the eye.”

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 10:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/lmGDJUr Tyler Durden

Labor Market Implodes: Job Openings Crater, Prior Data Revised Sharply Lower

Labor Market Implodes: Job Openings Crater, Prior Data Revised Sharply Lower

For months we have been warning that at a time when the US economy is careening into a hard landing recession, the manipulated, seasonally-adjusted, and politically goalseeked job openings data released as part of the DOL’s JOLTS report is sheer rubbish (see “US Job Openings Far Lower Than Reported By Department Of Labor“; “Handle The JOLTS Data With Care“, “Just Make it Up: Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar As Labor Department Now Guessing What The Number Is“). Today, the BLS finally got the memo.

With consensus expecting only a modest drop from the reported September 9.553 million job openings, what the BLS reported moments ago instead was a stunning collapse of 617K job openings to just 8.733 million, the lowest since March 2021…

… and was a 6-sigma miss to the consensus estimate of 9.3 million.

It gets better: the actual drop would be far worse if instead of the sharply downward revised print, the BLS had actually reported a correct number for once. Indeed, if we used the original September print of 9.553 million, the monthly plunge would have been over 800K, which would have been the 4th biggest monthly drop on record.

And speaking of downward revisions to “strong” data, something the goalseekers in the Biden administration have become extremely adept at, the September downward revision to the openings print means that the in addition to revising almost all jobs reports lower, the BLS has also revised 4 of the past 5 job openings prints lower. If one incorporates all the adjustments, the latest revisions mean that the number of job openings was 848K lower in the past 5 months, suggesting that the Fed was still hiking this summer on fake, manipulated “strong” data.

According to the BLS, the largest decrease in job openings was in health care and social assistance (-236,000), finance and insurance (-168,000), and real estate and rental and leasing (-49,000). Job openings increased in information (+39,000).

The plunge in the number of job openings meant that in October, the number of job openings was just 2227. million more than the number of unemployed workers, the lowest since July 2021.

Said otherwise, in October the number of job openings to unemployed dropped to just 1.34, the lowest level since August 2021 and almost back to pre-covid levels of 1.3… and a far cry from the record 2.0 hit in early 2022.

As the number of job openings cratered to the lowest in more than two years, the number of people quitting their jobs – an indicator traditionally closely associated with labor market strength as it shows workers are confident they can find a better wage elsewhere – also dropped, if more modestly, by 18K to 3.628MM, the second lowest since March 2021.

And just in case some still believe the “Bidenomics” strong jobs lie, the number of hires also dropped in October, sliding by 20K to 5.886 million…

… as the hire rate dropped to 3.7% (below the 10 year average 3.9% and after peaking above 6%). So not only are job openings plunging, hiring is also slowing fast (and no, the jobs didn’t disappear because people were getting hired to fill those jobs).

So what to make of this ugly data which as not only UBS, but also the NFIB…

… Opportunity Insights…

… and even Goldman …

… have been warning is long overdue?

The answer is simple: while the drop was substantial, the real number of job openings remains still far lower since half of it – or some 70% to be specific – is guesswork. As the BLS itself admits, while the response rate to most of its various labor (and other) surveys has collapsed in recent years, nothing is as bad as the JOLTS report where the actual response rate has tumbled to a record low 32%

In other words, more than two thirds, or 70% of the final number of job openings, is estimated!

And at a time when it is critical for Biden to still maintain the illusion that at least the labor market remains strong when everything else in Biden’s economy is crashing and burning, we’ll let readers decide if the admin’s Labor Department is plugging the estimate gap with numbers that are stronger or weaker.

As for the Fed, now that the labor market has officially cracked – because a sub 9mm print means that the rate hikes are really taking their toll on the economy – it is no surprise that stonks, which had traded near session lows before the report, are suddenly surging again as we are now officially back into “bad news is great news” for the market mode, since the end of Biden’s fiscal stimmy means that only the Fed is available to kickstart the economy when it officially slides into a recession next.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/05/2023 – 10:34

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/PVvlAxn Tyler Durden