Judge Halts Montana’s First Amendment-Violating TikTok Ban


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A TikTok ban in Montana is likely unconstitutional, a federal judge ruled on Thursday.

Judge Donald Molloy, with the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana, issued a temporary halt to enforcing the ban. It was scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2024, and would have meant $10,000 penalties per day for app stores or TikTok “each time that a user accesses TikTok, is offered the ability to access TikTok, or is offered the ability to download TikTok.”

The ruling “is a welcome victory in the face of a relentless and illiberal campaign against the First Amendment and the Internet,” said Ari Cohn, free speech counsel with TechFreedom. “Wholesale bans on speech-enabling platforms are an affront to the First Amendment, and it is deeply troubling that so many have cheered them on based on panic, fear, or a general disdain for the platform.”

Montana’s TikTok ban (SB 419) was signed into law by Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte last May, calling it a measure “to protect Montanans’ personal and private data from the Chinese Communist Party.” The move came amidst a flurry of official paranoia—and propaganda—about how the app, with its Chinese parent company, could be a threat to national security, personal privacy, and America’s youth.

TikTok creators and TikTok itself sued, arguing that the ban was unconstitutional. The two suits were since consolidated.

On Thursday, Molloy granted TikTok’s and the TikTok users’ motions for a preliminary injunction, forbidding the state from enforcing the law as the legal challenge plays out.

TikTok and the group of users behind the lawsuit said the ban violates the First Amendment and the Commerce Clause and is preempted by national security law. They “have demonstrated a likelihood to succeed on the merits,” wrote Molloy in his opinion, noting that “SB 419 bans TikTok outright and, in doing so, it limits constitutionally protected First Amendment speech.”

Molloy expressed a healthy skepticism about the state’s counterarguments. “The State attempts to persuade that its actual interest in passing this bill is consumer protection. However, it has yet to provide any evidence to support that argument,” the judge wrote. And even if it could do that, the ban “does not limit the application in a targeted way with the purpose of attacking the perceived Chinese problem.”

“Additionally, there are many ways in which a foreign adversary, like China, could gather data from Montanans,” including purchasing it from data brokers, open-source intelligence gathering, and hacking, Molloy pointed out. “Thus, it is not clear how SB 419 will alleviate the potential harm of protecting Montanans from China’s purported evils.”

And if the clear goal of the legislation is foreign affairs, we have other problems, the judge explained. “Montana’s foray into foreign affairs interprets the United States’ current foreign policy interests and intrudes on them. Because it does so, SB 419 is likely preempted” by federal law.

Montana leaders may have hoped to be ahead of the curb with the TikTok ban, as both state and federal lawmakers contemplate similar actions. But it seems like all they did was get an early jump on being smacked down in court and another reminder that the First Amendment still matters, no matter how much moral panic you invoke.

The post Judge Halts Montana's First Amendment-Violating TikTok Ban appeared first on Reason.com.

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Recessionary Indicators Update: Soft Landing Or Worse?

Recessionary Indicators Update: Soft Landing Or Worse?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

I previously discussed a slate of recessionary indicators with high correlations to recessionary onsets. However, as we head into 2024, many Wall Street economists predict a “soft landing” or “no recession” outcome for the economy. Are these recessionary indicators with near-flawless track records wrong this time? Will it be a soft landing in the economy or something worse?

We must start our recessionary indicator review with the “Godfather” of them all – “Yield Curve Inversions.”

Bonds are essential for their predictive qualities, so analysts pay enormous attention to U.S. government bonds, specifically the difference in their interest rates. As such, there is a high correlation between the yield curve’s slope and where the economy, stock, and bond markets generally head longer term. Such is because everything from volatile oil prices, trade tensions, political uncertainty, the dollar’s strength, credit risk, earnings strength, etc., reflects in the bond market and, ultimately, the yield curve.

Regarding yield curve inversions, the media always assumes this time is different because a recession didn’t occur immediately upon the inversion. There are two problems with this way of thinking.

  1. The National Bureau Of Economic Research (NBER) is the official recession dating arbiter. They wait for data revisions by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) before announcing a recession’s official start. Therefore, the NBER is always 6-12 months late, dating the recession.

  2. It is not the inversion of the yield curve that denotes the recession. The inversion is the “warning sign,” whereas the un-inversion marks the start of the recession, which the NBER will recognize later.

As discussed in “BTFD Or STFR,” if you wait for the official announcement by the NBER to confirm a recession, it will be too late. To wit:

“Each of those dots is the peak of the market PRIOR to the onset of a recession. In 9 of 10 instances, the S&P 500 peaked and turned lower prior to the recognition of a recession.

Here is the analysis in table form. It is worth noting that the market’s lead to the economic recession has shrunk markedly since 1980. As such, given the rally in the market this year, it is not surprising a recession has not been recognized as of yet.

Which Yield Curve Matters

Which yield curve matters mostly depends on whom you ask.

DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach watches the 2-year vs. 5-year spreads. Michael Darda, the chief economist at MKM Partners, says it’s the 10-year and the 1-year spread. Others say the 3-month and 10-year yields matter most. The most-watched is the 10-year versus the 2-year spread.

While most mainstream economists focus on a specific yield curve, we track ten different economically important spreads from short-term consumption to long-term investments. Most yield spreads we monitor, shown below, are inverted, which is historically the best recessionary indicator. However, technically, the UN-inversion of the yield curve is the recessionary indicator.

Notably, when numerous yield spreads turn negative, the media will discount the risk of a recession and suggest the yield curve is wrong this time. However, the bond market is already discounting weaker economic growth, earnings risk, elevated valuations, and a reversal of monetary support. As such, a recession followed when 50% or more of the tracked yield curves became inverted. Every time. (Read this for a complete history.)

But it isn’t just the yield curve as a recessionary indicator that we are watching.

Are Leading Indicators Wrong?

We wrote Economic Cycles Will Recover” in July after a significant drop in many leading economic indicators. To wit:

“As with market cycles, the economy cycles as well. There is little argument that the current economic data is fragile, whether you look at the Leading Economic Index (LEI) or the Institute Of Supply Management (ISM) measures. As with the market cycle, long periods of slowing economic activity will eventually bottom and turn higher. The Economic Composite Index, comprised of 100 hard and soft economic data points, clearly shows the economic cycles. I have overlaid the composite index with the 6-month rate of change of the LEI index, which has a very high correlation to economic expansions and contractions.”

As shown, the data has bottomed since July and has started to improve. Notably, these economic measures are at levels that previously marked the bottoms of economic contractions outside financial crises or economic shutdown events. As noted in July, the improvement in economic activity seen in Q3 and Q4 was expected. That improvement also supports the earnings cycle we have seen as of late.

While there are reasons to remain suspect of an upturn in the current economic and market cycles, it is difficult to discount the historical evidence completely. Yes, the Federal Reserve has hiked rates aggressively, which weighs on economic activity by reducing personal consumption. However, the government continues to increase spending levels sharply, i.e., the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPs Act, which support economic activity.

We see that same support to economic activity in the monetary supply (M2) as a percentage of the economy. While those monetary and fiscal supports are reversing following the “pandemic-related” spending spree, both are reversing.

Eventually, the support provided by those massive infusions into the economy will fade. The hope is that the economy will return to normal functioning by then. The only issue is that we have no historical precedent to base those hopes on.

Soft Landing Or Recession?

The question of a “soft landing” or an outright “recession” is difficult to answer. It is certainly possible that all of the tell-tale signs of economic recession may be wrong this time. There is another possibility. Given the massive increase in activity due to a shuttered economy and massive fiscal stimulus, the reversion may take longer than expected. Both scenarios support the rising optimism of Wall Street economists in the near term. However, such also brings to mind Bob Farrell’s Rule #9:

“When all experts agree something else tends to happen.”

As noted previously, we would already be in a recession if we had entered this current period at previous growth rates below 4%. The difference is the contraction began from a peak in nominal GDP of nearly 12%. As noted above, a bounce in activity is not surprising after a significant contraction in the economic data. The question is whether that bounce is sustainable. Unfortunately, we won’t know the answer for quite some time.

We know that Federal Reserve actions regarding hiking rates have about a 6-quarter lead over changes to economic growth. Given the last Fed rate hike was in Q2 of this year, such would suggest a further slowing in economic activity into the end of 2024.

Investor Implications

As noted above, the massive surge in monetary stimulus (as a percentage of GDP) remains highly elevated, which gives the illusion the economy is more robust than it likely is. As the lag effect of monetary tightening continues to weigh on consumption, the reversion to economic strength may surprise most economists.

For investors, the implications of reversing monetary stimulus on prices are not bullish. As shown, the contraction in liquidity, measured by subtracting GDP from M2, correlates to changes in asset prices. Given that there is significantly more reversion in monetary stimulus to come, this suggests that lower asset prices will likely follow. However, the markets have recently been betting that a reversal of liquidity is coming. Given the inflationary implications of providing monetary accommodation, i.e., rate cuts and quantitative easing, it seems unlikely the Federal Reserve will act before the onset of a recession. If that assumption is correct, investors may set themselves up for disappointment.

As we update our recessionary indicators, there is still no clear visibility regarding the certainty of a recession. Yes, this “time could be different.” The problem is that, historically, such has not been the case.

Therefore, given this uncertainty, we must continue to weigh the possibility that Wall Street economists are correct in their more optimistic predictions. However, we must remain open to the probabilities that still lie with the indicators.

No one knows what the future holds with any degree of certainty. Therefore, we must remain nimble in our investment approach and trade the market for what it is rather than what we wish it to be.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/01/2023 – 12:15

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Bill Ackman Points Out Inconvenient Truth Of X’s ‘Unfair Treatment by Advertisers’ 

Bill Ackman Points Out Inconvenient Truth Of X’s ‘Unfair Treatment by Advertisers’ 

X has been attacked by activist organizations such as Media Matters and legacy corporate media. These groups view the platform as a threat to their ideological agenda and the interests of their financial backers and thus aim to sabotage it by misleading companies to pull ad spending.

At The New York Times’ DealBook Summit on Wednesday, Elon Musk silenced a room full of liberal elites as he proclaimed that: “…if someone wants to blackmail me with advertising, they can go f*ck themselves.”

NYTimes noted this morning that at least half-dozen marketing agencies said they would keep their clients off X. Others have spoken with clients about reducing ad spending. 

“There is no advertising value that would offset the reputational risk of going back on the platform,” Lou Paskalis, the founder and CEO of AJL Advisory, a marketing consultancy, told NYTimes. 

Over the years, ZeroHedge has also gone through similar ad monetization hell, having lost most of our advertisers because they did not approve content on this website, and as a result, they – together with such members of the Censorship Industrial Complex such as NewsguardSleeping Giants and CheckMyAds and various three-letter US government agencies – did everything in their power to attempt to kill the site. Still, thankfully, we survived because of our premium subscribers.

Commenting on the advertiser boycott of X, billionaire Bill Ackman posted on X that Musk “is entirely correct that he and @X are treated unfairly and inconsistently by advertisers.” 

Ackman pointed out that other social media platforms like TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, and others have “enormous amounts of problematic content, antisemitic and otherwise, but the advertisers don’t boycott those platforms.” 

Weird, right? 

“Musk is targeted because the other media organizations view @X as a competitor and any time his name is in an article about controversies, it draws clicks. MSM is incentivized to attack him as it actually drives attention to their sites and therefore more revenues. It is these attack articles by other media organizations that put pressure on the @Disney’s of the world to stop advertising on X,” the billionaire said. 

As Ackman explained, perhaps Disney’s Bob Iger should “carefully examine the facts” and not cave to public pressure. He said, “Meanwhile, Disney invests heavily on TikTok, likely alongside videos of kids teaching other teenagers to be anorexic and worse.” 

He added: “I am sure Nelson Peltz can fix this when he joins the Disney board.” 

Ackman said his investment in the “Twitter privatization” was about “free speech,” adding, “Whether we make a profit on our investment is not important to us as we never intend to sell our interest.” 

Suppose Musk is successful with X in the long run and can weather constant bombardments by corporate media and rogue activist groups. In that case, he will break the information matrix that the industrial-corporate media complex has held for decades. 

The coming fracture of the corporate media bubble will be epic, and we have already seen billionaires such as Ackman and those associated with 1789 Capital invest in alternative forms of media. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/01/2023 – 11:55

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Biden Shifting Away From ‘Bidenomics’ Talk As Public Remains Skeptical On Economy

Biden Shifting Away From ‘Bidenomics’ Talk As Public Remains Skeptical On Economy

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

A word once a badge of honor for President Joe Biden might have turned into a political liability. “Bidenomics,” a term used to describe his economic doctrine, is being used less, and the press is beginning to take notice.

In recent weeks, President Biden has refrained from uttering “Bidenomics.” It has been absent in nearly all of his public appearances this month, from his prepared remarks in Colorado, where he touted the Inflation Reduction Act, to his speeches at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in California.

The last time President Biden touted the term was in a Nov. 1 speech in Minnesota, where he mentioned it four times and compared it to the American Dream.

“Folks, Bidenomics is just another way of saying ‘the American Dream,'” President Biden said then.

But it has not entirely disappeared. Instead, President Biden’s re-election campaign has used the “Bidenomics” branding in subtler forms. During the Colorado event, there were signs with the label. The term is also inserted into the title of President Biden’s events or speeches. His team has used it in social media messages.

“In Colorado, [Biden] highlighted how Bidenomics is creating jobs and opportunities – unleashing over $7 billion in new investments across the state,” the White House wrote on X (previously Twitter) on Nov. 30.

Mainstream media outlets, including NBC News, have noticed that the White House has removed the term when President Biden talks about the economy.

A chorus of prominent Democrats and many of President Biden’s allies and supporters have warned that the “Bidenomics” branding would backfire because many Americans are still financially struggling and might link their challenges with the economic message.

“Whatever stories Americans are told about the strength of the economy under President Joe Biden, they are not going to be persuaded to look past the issue of their own living standards,” liberal economist James Galbraith wrote last month.

A plethora of polls have highlighted the same thing: A majority of U.S. voters do not like “Bidenomics.”

According to a new Gallup poll, 67 percent of Americans disapprove of the way President Biden is handling the economy. A recent Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll found that just 44 percent of respondents approve of President Biden’s handling of the economy. Just 14 percent of U.S. voters say they are better off financially now than when President Biden took office, a new Financial Times-University of Michigan monthly survey learned.

“With less than a year to go until the presidential election, Biden continues to receive tepid ratings from the American public. His overall job approval rating is still at his personal low and is in historically dangerous territory for an incumbent seeking reelection,” Gallup wrote in its summary of the latest polling data.

“In addition, political independents’ record-low rating of Biden is striking. Biden’s even weaker ratings on the economy, foreign affairs and the Middle East suggest that his performance in these areas is dragging down his overall job performance rating.”

The White House insists that the U.S. economy is heading on the right track, alluding to various data points to support these claims.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told reporters in North Carolina on Nov. 30 that “inflation has now come way down” and “now wage gains are really translating into more real income.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at an event on the Biden administration’s economic strategy toward the Indo-Pacific in Washington on Nov. 2, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

“So my hope is that Americans gradually will see that things are getting better,” Ms. Yellen said.

The headline numbers have pointed to a robust economic landscape.

In the third quarter, the GDP growth rate clocked in at a better-than-expected 5.2 percent, although government spending contributed 1.5 percent to the final print.

Despite the Federal Reserve’s rising interest rates, the labor market remains solid, with an unemployment rate below 4 percent and millions of new jobs in 2023.

However, the higher cost of living continues to affect voters’ perception of the economy.

The headline inflation rate remains above 3 percent, down from the June 2022 peak of 9.1 percent. However, cumulative inflation since January 2021 has been more than 17 percent. Plus, there have been many other factors pointing to a struggling population.

Real wage growth has tumbled approximately 3 percent since 2021. In addition, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, real (inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings rose by 0.2 percent in October, but “real average weekly earnings decreased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek.”

A new analysis from the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee found that Americans require an additional $11,400 today to afford the same living standards they did in January 2021.

Lending Club data found that 60 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.

Consumers might be tapped out, too. Credit card debt topped $1 trillion in the third quarter, the personal savings rate is below 4 percent, and pandemic-era savings have been exhausted.

President Biden acknowledged that families are still enduring a rough environment.

“We know that prices are still too high for too many things, that times are still too tough for too many families,” President Biden said on Nov 27. “But we’ve made progress.”

[ZH: No… no you haven’t…

…lower INFLATION does not mean lower PRICES…]

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/01/2023 – 11:35

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The Myth of the Federal Private Nondelegation Doctrine, Part 5

On Monday, I started serial-blogging my article, The Myth of the Federal Private Nondelegation Doctrine, which has just come out in the Notre Dame Law Review. I continued this on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and today’s is the last installment. This is a timely issue, because of the horseracing case currently pending in the Fifth Circuit (in which I filed an amicus brief on behalf of the Reason Foundation and others). Here’s Part II.B, explaining how there are no nondelegation doctrines specific to private parties — here, focusing on separation-of-powers theories like the Appointments Clause. (Please be sure to refer to the real version if you want all the footnotes!)

*     *     *

C. No Private Due Process Doctrine

Finally, let’s talk about application-based theories; here, I’ll focus on the bias branch of due process.

I start here by pointing out that, in some ways, due process doctrine is pro-privatization, because a private party is often a nonstate actor—which is not bound by constitutional rights. Whether or not this is desirable on policy grounds, some privatizations are more likely to be constitutional if the delegate is private.

Then, I focus on cases where private parties are exercising coercive power and are thus state actors subject to due process. Under the bias doctrine, the power to deprive someone of a life, liberty, or property interest can’t be vested in someone who is biased—especially financially self-interested—in the exercise of that power. This caselaw doesn’t draw distinctions between public and private actors.

1. The State Action Doctrine

Private parties generally aren’t “state actors”; they’re exempt from virtually all constitutional rights. (But not always: for instance, private prison providers are still state actors with respect to inmates, because they perform a traditional public function.) The state action doctrine has been around for over a century and isn’t going anywhere soon, though it involves many tricky cases, especially for hybrid entities.

When a nonstate-actor private entity replaces a previously governmental entity, lots of constitutional protections no longer apply. For example, employees are easier to fire—including for nakedly political reasons—and any hearings due process might have required for civil-service employment won’t be required in the private context. (And this isn’t just a matter of constitutional rights: private parties that enforce federal law, for instance as qui tam relators, don’t have the same legal constraints that the executive branch has related to faithfully executing the laws.)

This is a common critique of privatization. Surely government can’t free itself from constitutional restrictions, and reduce constitutional protections available to service recipients, by offloading those responsibilities to private providers? But it can—and does. This constitutional deregulation that results from privatization is often billed as an efficiency advantage; others argue that it may be part of an insidious agenda, and that it is in any event harmful even if unintentional.

The need to maintain constitutional accountability might be a good policy argument against privatization—though keep in mind that desirable procedures can still be provided by contract as a condition of privatization. (In other cases, there’s no need for government to offer the service at all, and the state action doctrine provides important guarantees for the liberty of the private sector.)

But this isn’t a constitutional argument against privatization. If anything, the state action doctrine is pro–private delegation, because it delimits a public sphere where constitutional rights apply in full force from a private sphere where constitutional rights don’t apply. To the extent that privatization thus removes constitutional restrictions that previously applied, privatization makes a particular arrangement more likely to be constitutional. While certain procedures might have been unconstitutional under public provision, after privatization (if the private provider isn’t a state actor) the question of constitutionality doesn’t even arise.

2. Private Cases: Just like Public Cases

But now let’s focus on cases where the state action doctrine doesn’t help the private delegate. For instance, where the private party is exercising coercive power, it is probably a state actor under the “traditionally exclusive public function” doctrine; privatization thus doesn’t change the applicability of constitutional norms.

In the zoning context, Eubank v. City of Richmond and Washington ex rel. Seattle Title Trust Co. v. Roberge establish that a legislature can’t delegate a power to some property owners to “virtually control and dispose of the proper rights of others” when they can “do so solely for their own interest.”

In the context of creditor remedies like wage garnishment or prejudgment replevin procedures, a creditor—obviously a self-interested party—can’t freeze a debtor’s wages or seize his goods without making some showing before a judge. In 2021, the Supreme Court reaffirmed this rule in the context of landlord-tenant law: the ability of a tenant to unilaterally stave off eviction by self-certifying financial hardship, where the landlord has no access to a hearing to contest that certification, violates the command that “no man can be a judge in his own case.”

This is where Carter Coal naturally fits. In the context of industrial regulation, a “majority” of industry participants may not “regulate the affairs of an unwilling minority.” As the Court wrote: “This is legislative delegation in its most obnoxious form; for it is not even delegation to an official or an official body, presumptively disinterested, but to private persons whose interests may be and often are adverse to the interests of others in the same business.” Such a delegation to self-interested parties clearly violates due process because, “in the very nature of things, one person may not be entrusted with the power to regulate the business of another, and especially of a competitor.”

All these bias cases recite the same principles, whether public or private actors are involved: private self-interested neighbors, creditors, tenants, and coal industry participants are treated just like the public mayor-judge with the fishy compensation scheme in Tumey v. Ohio. It all comes from a common skepticism of self-dealing, “the human tendency to distrust those who exercise power when they are known to have a narrow self-interest in its exercise.”

This principle also applies in quasi-judicial proceedings like administrative adjudications, as when a state board of optometry controlled by independent optometrists tried to revoke the licenses of corporate-employed optometrists in Gibson v. Berryhill. Was the problem that the (public) Board was biased, or that the (private) optometrists on the Board were biased? It didn’t matter, because the doctrine asks the functional question of bias, not the formal question of public versus private.

Moreover, what we’ve seen about indirect bias and sources of bias other than direct financial self-interest also applies to private delegations. In Eubank and Roberge, where local residents exercised a quasi-zoning power over their neighbors, who knows whether the residents objecting to their neighbors’ land uses cared about property values, neighborhood aesthetics, or not living near a retirement home? (And who cares? There’s nothing magical about being motivated by money, as opposed to being motivated by other personal preferences: money is only good because it helps us fulfill our personal preferences.)

Similarly, in Young v. United States ex rel. Vuitton et Fils S.A., a party was thought to have violated an injunction, so the court granted the opposing party’s attorney’s request to be appointed as special counsel to represent the government in investigating and prosecuting a criminal contempt action. The Supreme Court disapproved this, saying that private prosecutors appointed to prosecute criminal contempt should be as disinterested as public prosecutors. If lawyers representing interested parties acted as private prosecutors, they would act in a biased way (biased toward their own clients, that is) because of “the ethics of the legal profession.” (I suspect that lawyers zealously act in their clients’ interests for crasser reasons than legal ethics. But either source of bias seems equally objectionable.)

Young also illustrates the limits of the usual rule that disinterested review by the time of the first adjudication cures any bias. Ordinarily, there’s no due process problem when private parties’ only power is to invoke (disinterested) legal processes—even though, practically, private plaintiffs wield substantial coercive power. You might think the private prosecutor in Young would be subject to the same principle, because prosecutors don’t succeed unless a judge eventually agrees with them. But the constraints on public prosecutors, which we saw in connection with United States v. James Daniel Good Real Property, also apply in cases like Young : the private prosecutor’s biased behavior can’t be adequately policed by later court review because the private prosecutor “exercises considerable discretion” in various matters, and these decisions are “made outside the supervision of the court.”

Similar considerations apply to arguments that the government shouldn’t be able to contract with private contingency-fee lawyers to enforce state law against private actors. (One can go even further, and argue that private plaintiffs shouldn’t be able, without some preliminary judicial review, to coerce defendants to show up in court or lose their case.)

3. How Private Status Can Be Relevant

Again, we can ask: even though there’s no separate private doctrine, might due process still play out differently in private cases?

Just as with the other doctrines, sometimes this will be true. If a private actor turns out to be performing state action—so it is subject to due process—then some procedures might be constitutionally required, and if those procedures are more likely to be present in the public sector (because of the APA and other statutes), then public-sector delegations are more likely to be found compliant with due process even though the formal doctrine is the same.

Turning to the bias branch of due process, might it be easier to find disqualifying bias in private cases?

One clear case is when private parties are given unconstrained discretion, as in zoning cases like Eubank and Roberge, industrial regulation cases like Carter Coal, or self-help remedies cases like Sniadach and Fuentes. We can probably assume that private parties will seek their individual gain, whether strictly financial or not. Public officials, by contrast, are often presumed to be public-minded, take oaths, have some accountability, and so on. But this is only a presumption—perhaps stemming from a tendency to romanticize the public sector, but perhaps often justified by officials’ lack of strong monetary incentives. Public-official cases like Tumey and Ward (and the rest) show that this presumption can be overcome even without showing actual bias—for instance, by showing the details of public-employee or agency compensation arrangements.

But to assert that all private delegations necessarily exhibit invalid bias is to be insufficiently imaginative about what contractual options are available. Perhaps giving neighbors unreviewable zoning power can never be salvaged. But not all cases are like that. Some have complained that private prison firms have an incentive to be too strict on discipline, to influence parole boards against granting parole to their inmates. This concern isn’t unreasonable, and it resembles other concerns surrounding private prisons (even if not exactly due process concerns): for instance, do private prisons underinvest in rehabilitation? But this is an artifact of per diem compensation, which doesn’t necessarily create the best incentives for effective and humane incarceration. What if we compensated private prison firms based on whether they achieved good results, like low recidivism rates or low rates of in-prison violence?

Similarly, whenever people complain about private welfare providers’ incentives to “park” difficult cases or “cream-skim” easy cases, these problems (to the extent they’re any worse than existing problems with public providers) can be alleviated by better compensation arrangements. Whether this is easy or likely isn’t crucial here: my point is simply that, rather than assuming bias and insisting on per se rules, we should think about what compensation arrangements can alleviate or exacerbate bias.

The same considerations work in the other direction: to suggest that bias isn’t present (or is less present) in the public sector is to ignore the numerous actual cases cited above—and to ignore the history of public-sector monetary incentives. The modern trend toward the salarization of public servants, and the spread of civil-service protections, shouldn’t make us forget the historical extent of very problematic incentives in government work.

Nicholas Parrillo writes—to take just one example:

Customs officers were entitled to a share (moiety) of all goods that were forfeited for intentional evasion. The 1860s and 1870s saw an unprecedented spike in forfeitures and moieties, and there was a sudden flood of complaints that these incentives were pushing officers to construe every mistaken underpayment as intentional . . . .

. . . .

. . . [I]n 1869 the Treasury Department began hiring full-time customs detectives, nicknamed “moiety men.”

These bounties “proved terrifyingly effective at motivating enforcement. Seeking profit, officers went after the merchants as never before, pressing them to agree to harsh settlements, quite often in cases in which the underpayments turned out to be innocent mistakes.” These incentives were adopted intentionally, to encourage vigorous enforcement. And they would be considered due process violations if enacted today.

Similarly, consider the history of incentives for public prosecution. In the late 1700s and early 1800s, public prosecutors had incentives that were pro-prosecution, though not proconviction:

Typically, [public prosecutors] received a fee for every case they brought to trial, regardless of whether the defendant was convicted or not. . . . This arrangement motivated the public prosecutor to impose some hardship on defendants, in that he forced them to go through the hassle of a trial, but he had no incentive to convict them.

But around the mid-nineteenth century, the system changed drastically, in a proconviction direction: “[I]n the decades leading up to the 1860s, more than half the states changed public prosecutors’ fees so that they were available only if the officer won a conviction (or were much higher if he won a conviction).” This changed prosecutors’ incentives in two ways: they became less likely to prosecute losing cases, but they had an incentive to prosecute winnable cases vigorously. The federal government also offered conviction fees in the 1850s; this was most controversial for whisky enforcement in the South and West. In 1896, responding to the intense unpopularity of such schemes, Congress finally changed the fee system to a salary system: “Conviction fees, concluded congressmen, pushed prosecutors to focus too much on piling up convictions for extremely minor and technical offenses, since the perpetrators were easy to round up and convict, given the overly broad nature of the law.”

This history dispels the notion that public employment or public-service provision is necessarily disinterested. But aren’t we past that, in our age of salarization? No, as the modern public-sector due process bias cases prove. But even if we were past that benighted period, that doesn’t imply that private provision must necessarily be more biased in a way that justifies an antiprivatization constitutional norm. After all, salarization, civil-service employment, and the like are just a matter of contract. Public servants are just people who choose to work for government under the terms of public-sector employment, i.e., the government’s promises of compensation. And if we can have contracts that provide good incentives for public-sector employees, we can also (at least sometimes) write contracts that provide good incentives for private providers. Accountability mechanisms, compensation systems that encourage good behavior, and so on, can be imposed on private providers as a matter of contract. And this means that one can have private delegation, even of coercive functions, without necessarily running into due process problems.

Conclusion

Fine, maybe there is no private nondelegation rule. But one could still argue there should be, as in some countries and U.S. states. For instance:

  • The Israeli Supreme Court has staked out a doctrine under which prison privatization is inherently unconstitutional, merely because of the private nature of the delegate and regardless of how prisoners are actually treated.
  • Germany follows a more moderate approach: the German Basic Law provides that “[t]he exercise of sovereign authority on a regular basis shall, as a rule, be entrusted to members of the public service who stand in a relationship of service and loyalty defined by public law.” The German Federal Constitutional Court has taken the words “as a rule” to allow for reasonable exceptions based on policy considerations, provided sufficient accountability is present.
  • And various U.S. states, such as Texas and Rhode Island, have also developed various private nondelegation doctrines.

Federal constitutional law could follow the lead of these jurisdictions and develop such a doctrine. It could do so on an inherent theory: i.e., there’s something inherently wrong with private delegations. Or, it could do so on a prophylactic theory: i.e., private delegations are more likely to be problematic than public ones, and looking to functional considerations on a case-by-case basis is too costly, so a per se rule reduces total error costs. I don’t think one should adopt any antiprivatization doctrine for either of these reasons, but making this normative argument is beyond the scope of this Article. For now, the positive analysis leaves us with a few takeaways:

  • A few doctrines of federal constitutional law are pro-privatization, meaning that private delegations can reduce the number of constitutional restrictions that apply and thus decrease the chance that anything unconstitutional is going on. Perhaps those doctrines are ill-thought-out (I have my doubts as to the exclusion of occasional contractors from the Appointments Clause), but in any event, they’re not antiprivatization.
  • Otherwise, we don’t have doctrines that rule out private delegation as such. The main doctrines that people often point to—the Article I Nondelegation Doctrine, the Appointments Clause, and the Due Process Clause—may rule out some private delegations, but only based on the same neutral analysis that also rules out some public delegations.
  • And if the neutral operation of these ordinary doctrines ends up ruling out private delegations more often than public ones (e.g., maybe bias is more present in the private sector)—well, that could just mean that the neutral doctrines are working. The neutral doctrines successfully point to the presence of particular factors that we care about, not public or private status as such.

Any given private delegation might still be unconstitutional. But this requires focusing on particular features: Did Congress give up too much power? Are people who exercise federal authority sufficiently accountable, in the sense of being appointed and removed through the proper political processes? Are people with coercive power subject to unacceptable bias?

The only thing the analysis in this Article rules out is the tendency, in some judicial or scholarly quarters, to paint with an overly broad brush and say that private delegation is ruled out a priori, due to a supposed constitutional “private nondelegation doctrine.” There is no such thing.

The post The Myth of the Federal Private Nondelegation Doctrine, Part 5 appeared first on Reason.com.

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Santos Expelled From Congress On Third Try

Santos Expelled From Congress On Third Try

The House has finally expelled Rep. George Santos (R-NY) from Congress after two previous attempts failed, amid a laundry list of allegations against him, including campaign finance abuses.

“Congressman” George Santos

The ouster passed by a vote of 311 to 114, with 105 Republicans joining 206 Democrats in the affirmative. 

The ouster follows a November report by the House Ethics Committee, which concluded that the New York congressman “sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit.”

Santos, who did not engage in a years-long influence peddling scheme with America’s leverage-laden adversaries – only to gain the full protection of uniparty loyalists while walking America into two new proxy wars (Having “Biden” for a last name might have helped), announced that he would not seek reelection following the release of the ethics report.

He has separately pleaded not guilty to 23  federal charges, including allegations of COVID-19 unemployment benefits fraud, misusing campaign funds, and lying about his personal finances on House disclosure reports.

Prior to the vote, Rep. Tim Burchett said he would vote against expulsion, telling CNN: “We’re a bunch of sinners.”

“George Santos is a liar — in fact, he has admitted to many of them — who has used his position of public trust to personally benefit himself from Day 1,” said Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), Santos’ arch nemesis within the Republican party.

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/01/2023 – 11:06

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Bumpy Inflation Says There’s More Rate Volatility To Come

Bumpy Inflation Says There’s More Rate Volatility To Come

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

An acceleration in inflation volatility points to the implied volatility of fixed-income rising again.

Inflation in the US may be falling, but when the price-growth genie is out of the bottle, it’s how volatile inflation is that matters.

At heart, heightened inflation creates uncertainty. Long-term investment is deterred.

Consumers tend to save more and spend less in what is known as the Katona effect.

Bond holders typically demand greater premium for the extra inherent uncertainty associated with a greater variance in inflation, which is amplified when inflation is elevated. The chart below shows how the term premium and inflation volatility are positively related, with the recent rise in term premium coinciding with rising variance in inflation (aka how much it moves around its mean).

The rise in term premium to compensate bond holders for greater uncertainty typically means bond volatility picks up.

We can see below that bond volatility may not yet have fully reflected the recent increase in inflation’s variance, and it may soon begin climbing again.

As with other financial variables, we should consider real and nominal versions when inflation is elevated.

In this cycle, the rise in real-yield volatility foreshadowed the rise in nominal-yield vol (as captured by the MOVE index in the chart above).

The risk is that the rise in inflation volatility catalyzes a re-acceleration in real-yield volatility, and reinforces already-rising nominal-rate vol.

As the chart shows, the inflationary recessions of the 1970s and early 80s were almost all accompanied by spikes in both real and nominal-yield volatility.

It’s possible the next recession – when it hits – will see the same effect, leaving fixed-income vol and yields with potentially sizable upside risks.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/01/2023 – 10:55

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Powell Live Webcast: Fed Chair Says “Premature To Speculate When Might Ease” But “Rate Well Into Restrictive Territory”

Powell Live Webcast: Fed Chair Says “Premature To Speculate When Might Ease” But “Rate Well Into Restrictive Territory”

Live Feed:

Update (11:00am ET): Powell’s prepared remarks are out and, as expected, they lean on the hawkish side. Here are the highlights:

  • *FED’S POWELL: PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON WHEN POLICY MAY EASE
  • *POWELL: FED PREPARED TO TIGHTEN MORE IF IT BECOMES APPROPRIATE
  • *POWELL: FOMC MOVING CAREFULLY AS RISKS BECOMING MORE BALANCED
  • *POWELL: FED POLICY RATE IS ‘WELL INTO RESTRICTIVE TERRITORY’

The bottom line, Powell is a mix of hawkish and dovish, On one hand, he leans hawkish:

“It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have  achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when  policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.”

But on the other, he counters dovishly:

“The strong actions we have taken have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, meaning that tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Monetary policy is thought to affect economic conditions with a lag, and the full effects of our tightening have likely not yet been felt.”

Or as Bloomberg notes:

“Powell points to how the Fed’s past tightening moves will continue to have an impact on the economy — the full impact hasn’t been felt yet. If anybody thought the Fed wasn’t finished raising rates, his prepared remarks today sure put a fork in it. They are done.”

The only outstanding question is when do cuts begin now.

* * *

Here are Powell ‘s full prepared remarks:

Thank you, President Gayle, and thank you for the invitation to visit today. I am fortunate to have been accompanied from Washington by a very distinguished graduate of Spelman College, Class of 1986 and member of Delta Sigma Theta, my Federal Reserve colleague Governor Lisa Cook. There is no greater testament to Spelman’s historic legacy than the achievements of outstanding women like Governor Cook. One part of that legacy is Spelman’s tradition of promoting education in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics). Governor Cook’s research highlights the key role of such education in preparing individuals to be inventors and innovators who can generate ideas that will add to our body of knowledge, increase productivity, and generate higher living standards.1 Her work is just one example of how Spelman women continue to make historic contributions in science, the arts, technology, medicine, and other fields.

I look forward to our conversation, and I thought I might frame it by talking about the Federal Reserve’s actions to promote a healthy economy, and how those actions relate to questions students in this audience may be asking about the future. For example, I am sure that students are wondering what kind of a job market and economy you will be entering when you complete your education.

Congress assigned the Fed the dual mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. Both goals are essential aspects of a healthy economy. Congress also gave the Fed a precious grant of independence from direct political control to allow us to pursue those goals without consideration of political matters. Other major central banks in democratic societies have similar grants of independence, and this institutional arrangement has a strong track record of producing better policy outcomes for the benefit of the public.

To begin with our maximum employment goal, I am glad to say that, by many measures, conditions in the labor market are very strong. A couple of years ago, as the pandemic receded and the economy reopened, the number of job openings grew to greatly exceed the supply of people available to work, leaving a widespread shortage of workers. Today, labor market conditions remain very strong, and the economy is returning to a better balance between the demand for and supply of workers. The pace at which the economy is creating new jobs remains strong, and has been slowing toward a more sustainable level. That gradual slowing has come in part due to the efforts of the Fed to slow the growth of the economy to help reduce inflation. After declining sharply during the pandemic, the supply of workers has bounced back, as people have come back into the labor force and as immigration has returned to pre-pandemic levels. Partly because of that labor force growth, the unemployment rate has edged up over the second half of the year, though it remains historically low at 3.9 percent. The increase in participation has been particularly strong among women in the prime working ages of 25 to 54, which surged to an all-time high earlier this year, and which remains well above pre-pandemic levels. Wage growth remains high but has been gradually moving toward levels that would be more consistent with 2 percent price inflation over time, and real wages are growing again as inflation declines.

As for price stability, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has a longer-run goal of 2 percent inflation.2 After running below 2 percent for over a decade, inflation increased sharply in 2021, in the United States and in many other countries around the world. High inflation imposes a significant hardship on all households and is especially painful for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. Beginning in early 2022, we reacted forcefully, raising our policy interest rate and decreasing the size of our balance sheet to help slow the economy and bring down inflation. Inflation has declined to 3 percent over the 12 months ending in October, but after factoring out energy and food prices, which tend to be volatile, what we call “core” inflation is still 3.5 percent, well above our 2 percent objective.

Over the six months ending in October, core inflation ran at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, and while the lower inflation readings of the past few months are welcome, that progress must continue if we are to reach our 2 percent objective. High inflation initially emerged from a collision between very strong demand and pandemic-constrained supply. The normalization of supply and demand conditions has played a critical role in the disinflation so far, as has the substantial tightening of monetary policy and overall financial conditions over the past two years.3 The strong actions we have taken have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, meaning that tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Monetary policy is thought to affect economic conditions with a lag, and the full effects of our tightening have likely not yet been felt. The forcefulness of our response to inflation also helped maintain the Fed’s hard-won credibility, ensuring that the public’s expectations of future inflation remain well-anchored. Having come so far so quickly, the FOMC is moving forward carefully, as the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced.4

As the demand- and supply-related effects of the pandemic continue to unwind, uncertainty about the outlook for the economy is unusually elevated. Like most forecasters, my colleagues and I anticipate that growth in spending and output will slow over the next year, as the effects of the pandemic and the reopening fade and as restrictive monetary policy weighs on aggregate demand.5 The FOMC is strongly committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent over time, and to keeping policy restrictive until we are confident that inflation is on a path to that objective. It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.

We are making decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.

That is an overview of what my colleagues and I at the Fed are trying to accomplish. The bottom line, if you are a student, is that we have made considerable progress in reducing high inflation while maintaining a strong labor market, with a lot of opportunity for new graduates. The unemployment rate has risen a bit, but it is still very low by historical standards, and by many measures it is a great time to start your career. You will face challenging decisions soon about what professions to enter, and what companies and institutions to work for. Some of you will become entrepreneurs. You have already made one really good decision, and that is coming to Spelman. Whatever opportunities and challenges emerge, education will continue to be a key to success. Higher education is an investment, and not just of money. You are investing your time and great effort to gain knowledge and skills that are preparing you for successful careers. Your success will make for a stronger economy. For our part, at the Fed we are doing our best to foster an economy that gives you the best opportunity to succeed. With that, I will hand it back to you, President Gayle.

* *  *

As noted earlier, November was a scorching blockbuster month for markets after a run of three fairly weak ones, which has led to a big turnaround in some of the YTD numbers for 2023. In fact, it was the best month for global bonds since December 2008, the best month for US bonds since May 1985, as well as the strongest month for the S&P 500 this year and the second best November for US stocks since 1980 (only the insane 2020 was better).

There is a reason for that: as the chart below shows, November saws the biggest easing in financial conditions in history.

This is how Goldman’s Tony Pasquariello described the action:

  • Beneath the hood, it was a clean sweep, and of significant magnitude: stocks up, rates down, dollar weaker, credit tighter.  
  • While there’s always a chicken-or-egg dynamic here — and, perhaps the Fed chair will temper some of this impulse — the fact is this: the markets have moved a lot, and they have done so in a way that is supportive of US growth.
  • To put a line under the piece of the FCI equation that is comprised by equities, November was a ripper by any measure.  
  • To illustrate the point: S&P was up in 16 of 21 trading days and had its best month of the year (to say nothing of — ahem — the 11% rally in NDX).
  • In many ways, it was one of those rolls where what could have gone right … mostly went right.  

Ok that was November, what now? Well, according to DB’s Jim Reid, whether the trends of November continue into year-end will in part depend on Powell’s speech later today, or rather two speechs, which take place just before the FOMC blackout (ahead of the Dec 13 FOMC statement).

According to Reid, “market moves have been so great since he suggested that tight financial conditions were doing some of the Fed’s job for them (November 1st) that you have to think he will address the subsequent moves and either push back or endorse.” On balance the DB strategist thinks he may take a similar tone to Williams yesterday and push back a little while acknowledging the progress that has seemingly been made.

Source: AI, ForexLive

On that theme, NY Fed President Williams’ remarks yesterday helped the month end on a soggier tone, especially for bonds. He said he expects “it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some time to fully restore balance and to bring inflation back to our 2% longer-run goal on a sustained basis .” Separately, San Francisco President Daly said that “I’m not thinking about rate cuts at all right now”.

So going back to Powell’s not one but two appearances today, first, at 11am ET, the Fed Chair is scheduled to sit down for a fireside chat with Helene D. Gayle, the president of Spelman College in Atlanta, in which they address the challenges of our post-COVID economy.

Then, three hours later, at 2pm ET, Powell and Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will participate in roundtable to hear from local leaders in the tech innovation and entrepreneurship community during visit to Spelman College. It is less likely that he will discuss monetary policy here although one never knows what questions may be lobbed his way.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/01/2023 – 10:37

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As Chinese Stocks Tumble To 4 Year Low, Beijing Steps In, Buys ETFs

As Chinese Stocks Tumble To 4 Year Low, Beijing Steps In, Buys ETFs

While US stocks are trading just shy of 2023 highs and less than 5% from all time highs thanks to the second best November performance since 1980, China is having big problems with, well, everything… but certainly its stock market.

Overnight, Chinese shares slumped again, extending their recent underperformance versus global peers, when the CSI 300 Index was set for its lowest close since 2019 amid growing fears the relentless housing crisis will steamroll the economy, as a decline in home sales accelerated in November despite more funding support for developers.

Chinese losses were almost erased, however, and stocks rebounded in the afternoon after the China Securities Journal reported that the “National Team” was back in play, as an unidentified Chinese state institution bought exchange-traded funds whose underlying assets are A-shares issued by central state-owned enterprises in the domestic stock market Friday.

The news outlet didn’t name the institution. But after the markets closed, China Reform Holdings said in a statement that one of its units bought an unspecified amount of an ETF tracking the Guoxin Central-SOEs Technology Lead Index. According to Bloomberg, turnover for the China Southern CSI Guoxin Central-SOEs Technology Lead ETF also surged to around 10 times the daily average over the past three months on Friday, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.

As a result of Beijing’s latest direct effort to prop up markets, the CSI 300 Index closed down only 0.4% after earlier falling more than 1% while the Shanghai Composite index ended in the green, bouncing back from a 0.6% slide that pushed it near the key 3,000-level that has in the past triggered intervention moves.

Stocks slumped earlier after data showed the decline in China’s home sales accelerated in November, while the latest Caixin PMI, which showed an unexpected pickup in a private gauge of China’s manufacturing activity, proved insufficient to ease fears about the economy’s recovery (and made more government stimulus unlikely).

The reported buying of ETFs “would be a policy-driven move to prop up markets as investors stand on the sidelines and are hesitant to build positions toward the end of the year,” said Shen Meng, a director with Beijing-based Chanson & Co. Lifting the market in this manner “is unlikely to bring any long-term boost apart from this knee-jerk reaction,” he said correctly. Trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus will be needed for a sustained uplift in risk assets, something Beijing refuses to do due to China’s record 300%+ debt/GDP.

Instead, authorities have taken piecemeal steps to lift confidence and put a floor under sinking markets, including purchases of ETFs and bank stocks by the sovereign wealth fund. However, rebounds have rarely lasted more than a day, speaking to profound pessimism among foreign investors in particular.

The afternoon report also drove other ETFs higher. China AMC CSI Central Enterprises Structure Adjustment ETF closed 0.5% higher, while China Universal CSI Guoxin Central-SOEs Shareholder Return ETF rose 0.8%. Bosera CSI Central-SOEs’ Innovation Driven ETF added 0.6%.

In Hong Kong, key gauges continued to slide. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.6%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index slumped more than 2%. The CSI 300 benchmark slid 2.1% in November, the worst performance among the world’s major equity benchmarks and missing out on a broad rally in global markets. Foreign investors sold nearly 5 billion yuan ($700 million) on a net basis Friday, following four straight months of outflows.

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/01/2023 – 10:20

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Future Headline: COP33 Climate Conference Urges Americans to Stop Eating

In a world full of unimaginable absurdity, we spend a lot of time thinking about the future… and to where all of this insanity leads.

“Future Headline Friday” is our satirical take of where the world is going if it remains on its current path. While our satire may be humorous and exaggerated, rest assured that everything we write is based on actual events, news stories, personalities, and pending legislation.

December 1, 2028: COP33 Climate Conference Urges Americans to Stop Eating

As world leaders gather for the 33rd COP Climate Summit, the theme of this year’s event is “Just Stop Eating”.

The United Nations, which hosts the conference, said that with extremely high oil and coal prices significantly reducing demand for fossil fuels, it is time to turn the focus on reducing the climate change affects of agriculture.

“Farming, especially the production of meat animals, is contributing to the warming of the globe at an unprecedented rate,” said Secretary-General of the United Nations Justin Trudeau as he opened the conference.

“And to tackle the root cause, we have to tackle demand— that is, people eating food.”

He said that as the fattest nation, the United States is the main problem when it comes to agricultural emissions.

“For the United States, this is not just an issue of climate change,” Trudeau continued, “This is a matter of public health. And as we learned from successfully combating Covid-19 with lockdowns and other restrictions, public health issues need the heavy hand of government to be solved.”

Since the 2023 COP28 agreement, the US has annually sent hundreds of billions of dollars in reparations payments to developing nations, compensating for its industrialization-driven greenhouse gas emissions that have disproportionately impacted these countries with natural disasters.

But experts say this is not enough.

Therefore, much of the COP33 agenda this year is focused on how to make Americans stop eating.

Some critics have noted the odd use of language which consistently uses the phrase, “just stop eating,” as opposed to “reduce food intake.”

“Of course, we don’t mean Americans should starve to death,” Trudeau said, glancing suspiciously side to side. “But it’s pretty clear a little climate change diet wouldn’t hurt.”

One breakout session will “explore the use of public health mandates to force Americans to stop eating.”

“Anything based on science can be justified as a public health mandate,” Trudeau said. “The scientific health benefits of fasting and calorie restriction are clear. And therefore these could, and should, be mandated on the American public.”

But mandates are not the only avenue that will be discussed to drastically curb Americans’ calorie intake.

Another session is called, “Appealing to Catholics with Biblical justifications to stop eating meat.”

The discussion will surround how a coordinated media effort might revive the Catholic tradition of fasting from meat on Fridays and during lent.

“If Catholics are willing to walk the walk, they would extend those traditions year round.” Trudeau said. “I think the Pope agrees, and we are working closely with him to add this to the next Papal Bull.”

But just in case traditional religion isn’t enough, COP33 will host spiritual guru Charlotte Tan who promotes the practice of sun gazing to replace meals.

“When you commune with nature, you realize the abundance around you. Gazing at the setting or rising sun can provide enough nutrients to your body to replace about half of your calories.”

Tan says that her “Nature’s Bounty” walks have also been popular among spiritually in-touch Americans.

“What we do is take a quick walk around a yard or a city block and find all the unused food resources just there for the taking. By eating edible weeds like dandelion or chickweed, people can save money, which gives them more time for meditation and activism.”

“But we don’t stop there,” Charlotte Tan continued, “Crickets, grubs, maggots— these might seem disgusting at first glance. But enlightened people realize these are just parts of nature. They are wholesome, fulfilling, and rich in high calorie lean protein. And best of all, they don’t add to a human’s carbon footprint. In fact, by eating them, we reduce it.”

Tan said that scorpions were especially popular food last year at her tent at Burning Man.

While promoting the replacement of meat like beef and chicken with protein sourced from bugs is nothing new for COP, this does represent a more creative approach.

“In the past, we have focused on data and logic to try to convince people to eat bugs,” Secretary-General Trudeau said before the conference’s first night meal of filet mignon. “This approach tackles the emotional side. Tapping into the spiritual awakening happening around the world is a great way to advance our collective mission.”

“We’re in this together,” he added, chewing his steak.

Source

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