Month: December 2023

‘Soft’ survey data has been trending serially lower (aside from yesterday’s 13-sigma beat in Chicago PMI), catching down to ‘hard’ data’s decline and this morning saw the final print for S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI drop to 49.4 (from 50.0 in October and down modestly from the 49.5 flash print), driven by a decline in new orders and employment.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI was expected to improve (helped by gains in both new orders and employment), but it disappointed, printing 46.7 (the same as October’s final print), below the 47.8 expectations.

Source: Bloomberg

All subsectors of the ISM report contributed negatively:

Source: Bloomberg

While PMI price data slowed, ISM Prices Paid jumped higher (though still below 50) as Employment declined…

Source: Bloomberg

One respondent summed things up perfectly:

“A slow fourth quarter, and we’re clearly in a mild industry recession…” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“Economy absolutely slowing down. Less optimism regarding the first quarter of 2024.” [Chemical Products]

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“US manufacturers reported yet another tough month in November. Output barely rose as inflows of new work showed a renewed decline, hinting at little – if any – contribution to fourth quarter GDP from the goods-producing sector.

“Orders have in fact risen in only three of the past 18 months, reflecting a prolonged period of subdued post-pandemic demand, in turn linked to consumers switching their spending to services such as travel and recreation, and business customers reducing excess inventories which had been accumulated during the supply concerns of the pandemic.

“Encouragingly, there are some signs of the inventory cycle starting to turn, with producers of intermediate goods (inputs supplied to other firms) now reporting modest order book growth.

And it gets worse:

“US producers nevertheless continue to focus on cost cutting by trimming headcounts, and have now taken the knife to payroll numbers for two consecutive months.

Barring the early months of the pandemic, the survey has not seen such a back-to-back monthly fall in factory employment since 2009.

Which is a major problem for the service side of the economy, because:

“The decline in employment could feed through to weaker consumer spending, but will also reduce wage bargaining power.

But, the silver lining is – inflation is coming down…

“Lower wage pressures, combined with a marked cooling of raw material input cost inflation, have already fed through to a lowering of average factory selling price inflation for goods to a rate below the average seen in the decade prior to the pandemic, the rate of increase dipping again in November to help further lower consumer price inflation in the months ahead.”

It would appear that the Chicago PMI ‘adjustments’ did not filter al the way up to the national manufacturing surveys…

Source: Bloomberg

We await the ‘revisions’.

“The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the October reading (46.7 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.7 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says ISM’s Timothy Fiore.

Bidenomics is winning!

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

During testimony at the UK government’s COVID inquiry this week, England’s former deputy chief medical officer at the height of the pandemic admitted that there was never any proof that face masks were effective in slowing or preventing the spread of the virus, and in all likelihood made the problem worse.

Professor Dame Jenny Harries, now the head of the UK Health Security Agency, explained that the policy wasn’t based on scientific reality and had the effect of instilling a “false sense of security,” convincing people that they would reduce their risk of becoming infected if they wore a mask.

She also told the inquiry that government advice on how to make a mask out of bits of cloth and old t-shirts was wholly “ineffective”.

“There appeared to be a view permeating through, and a real concern and risk, that it was being conceived that if you did one metre (social distancing) and you wore a face covering slung round your cheek, or whatever it might be, that was fine,” Harries noted.

She continued, “So, there was a risk that in encouraging face (masks) people would stop doing the thing that was really important, which was distancing and all the other things.”

“What was being conceived was if you wear a face covering and reduce everything to a metre, the face covering will make up for the difference, and the answer was no, it won’t, and it definitely won’t if it’s ever not evidence based,” Harries added.

Watch:

The COVID face mask policy was not evidence based and it made things WORSE. The words of England’s former deputy chief medical officer at the height of the pandemic. Still see people wearing them NOW though. How many times they got to be told this? #CovidInquiry #masks pic.twitter.com/s51AmUevW1

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) December 1, 2023

The BBC was broadcasting the testimony, but decided to “break away” when Harries started to explain how the use of masks was not evidence based and instilled a false sense of security among people wearing them.

BBC: ‘And we’re just going to break away from the COVID inquiry there because what the medical professor is saying about face masks doesn’t fit our narrative’ #CovidInquiry #BBC #Masks pic.twitter.com/RSGICRjv6A

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) December 1, 2023

In 2020 when it was all kicking off, Harries advised people not to panic buy and wear face masks saying that “it’s usually quite a bad idea” to wear a mask if you haven’t been expressly advised to do so by a medical professional.

She also told the BBC that masks could potentially “trap the virus” and help it spread.

.@UKHSAn boss Dame Jenny Harries is in the news for what she said @covidinquiryuk about masks being ineffective and having the opposite effect than intended. This is pretty much what she said at the time. These two clips of her are from around 12 March 2020. pic.twitter.com/VQCXmVvWG5

— Coronavirus Plushie (@c_plushie) November 30, 2023

Studies have proven that she was right all along:

Study Finds “No Evidence” Face Masks Protect Vulnerable Against COVID

Government Advisor Admits Masks Are Just “Comfort Blankets” That Do Virtually Nothing

Thanks for admitting this 3 years later after all the demeaning crap you put everybody through. pic.twitter.com/I9WGPkeHzw

— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) April 12, 2023

Never forget that if you questioned the masks at the time you were ostracised and banned from engaging in society.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our great merch.

While we seem to be heading for a rematch between Biden and Trump in the 2024 US presidential election, Fox hosted a debate between Governor Gavin Newsom (Democrat, California) and Governor Ron DeSantis (Republican, Florida), which can either be seen as an early presidential debate for 2028 or a debate between two reserve-candidates for 2024.

DeSantis probably hoped to boost his chances in the current Republican primaries, after Nikki Haley’s campaign to be the main challenger to Trump has gained momentum.

And indeed, the Red State vs. Blue State debate between Govs. DeSantis and Newsom was truly a sight to behold.

As Matt Margolis writes at PJMedia.com, it was amusing to see how DeSantis was armed with the facts, and Newsom was so impotent that he simply refused to answer question after question, instead choosing to launch into generic talking points, avoiding the substance of the issues being discussed.

Time after time, he was presented with raw data – facts comparing California and Florida – on migration, crime, jobs, COVID, etc., and Newsom’s response each time was to simply deny the facts and make up his own story.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a debate where a person evaded questions as much as Gavin Newsom did Thursday evening.

For someone who is routinely hailed as an expert debater and suave politician, he made it clear that he couldn’t defend the indefensible.

While there were a number of good lines, The Epoch Times’ Nathan Worcester and T.J. Muscaro highlight the five key takeaways from the 2028 dress-rehearsal (perhaps):

Interstate Migration

Early in the debate Mr. Newsom and Mr. DeSantis sparred over the rate of migration to and from their respective states.

I was talking to a fella who had made the move from California to Florida. He was telling me that Florida’s much better governed, safer, better budget, lower taxes.

Then he paused and said ‘by the way, I’m Gavin Newsom’s father-in-law.’ pic.twitter.com/OSsYCRTJYo

— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) December 1, 2023

The exchange began after Mr. Hannity asked about the high rates of outmigration from California and some other blue states. Meanwhile, Florida and some other red states have grown.

“He’s the first governor to ever lose population,” Mr. DeSantis said of Mr. Newsom.

“I think California has more natural advantages than any state in the country. You almost have to try to mess California up,” he said.

The California governor claimed that over the last two years, there were “more Floridians going to California than Californians going to Florida.”

“That’s gonna be fun to fact check,” he added.

But U.S. Census data show that more Californians have moved to Florida than vice-versa in 2021 and 2022.

Some fact-checkers have asserted that California’s state executive was referring to migration per capita rather than the raw numbers.

Whatever the case may be, the Fox News-hosted event allowed refugees from the Golden State to say their piece. At a press conference prior to the Thursday night spectacle, seven new Floridians told reporters why they had departed from the Golden State.

“In 2022 we had had enough,” said Steve Grossi, a law enforcement officer who spent a few years with the Sutter County Sheriff’s Department near Yuba City, California.

“We were fed up. We were angry. We were scared. It was so bad that we can no longer survive here. The California that we once knew no longer existed,” he added.

Taxes

Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Newsom also focused on the difference in their state’s tax policies. Mr. Hannity opened with statistics from the Tax Foundation, which showed Florida’s taxes alongside California’s.

Gavin Newsom had more kids locked out of school for a longer period of time in California than anywhere else in the country. It was working class kids.

His kids were in private school — they were in class in-person.

He is owned by the teacher’s union. pic.twitter.com/cIpesdK8RC

— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) December 1, 2023

Florida features a lower sales tax (6 percent compared to California’s 7.25 percent), lower gas tax (35.23 cents per gallon compared to California’s 77.9 cents per gallon), and a lower corporate income tax (5.50 percent compared to California’s 8.84 percent). Florida also boasts no individual income tax, while California features a maximum 13.3 percent income tax rate.

The Sunshine State only out-taxes the Golden State in terms of property taxes 0.91 percent on average compared to California’s 0.75 percent.

Mr. Newsom said that his state had the highest income tax rate rather than the highest state income taxes, which was a “foundational, fundamental difference.” He argued that states like Florida tax lower-income earners more than he does in his state.

“How many people wanted to go to California because they pay less taxes,” Mr. DeSantis asked. “I have not seen that.”

They come to Florida, he said, for lower taxes.

Mr. DeSantis also emphasized the fact his state has no state income tax, and the sales tax in place is still lower than that of California.

Pandemic Policy

Mr. Newsom also questioned Mr. DeSantis’s actions in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Florida governor broached the issue when Mr. Newsom brought up Disney. The corporation, long a cornerstone of the state’s economy, has been at odds with Mr. DeSantis over the Florida Parental Rights in Education Act.

“I think that’s an interesting point with Disney because I had Disney open during COVID, and we made them a fortune, and we saved a lot of jobs. You had Disney closed inexplicably for over a year,” the Florida governor said.

Disneyland, located in Anaheim, California, was shuttered for 13 months.

“In the past year, Anaheim has been through one of the most challenging years in its history,” Anaheim spokesperson Mike Lyster told The Epoch Times in 2021.

Mr. Newsom soon fired back, arguing that the governor’s record was less liberty-oriented than he let on.

“You passed an emergency declaration before the State of California did,” he said.

Mr. DeSantis declared a public health emergency regarding COVID-19 on March 1, 2020. Mr. Newsom proclaimed a State of Emergency over the coronavirus just days later, on March 4, 2020.

Other topics included COVID-19 death rates in the two states as well as the impact of lockdowns on education.

A National Bureau of Economic Research report card found that California had the least in-person learning of any state in the nation during the 2020–2021 school year, at just 19.2 percent. They outpaced the District of Columbia, in which just 5.8 percent of learning was in person that school year.

Parents Rights Bill

The governors also shared their views on parental rights when it comes to education and LGBT influence on kids.

Mr. DeSantis signed the Parental Rights in Education Bill during his first term as governor. It was labeled by dissenters as the “Don’t Say Gay Bill.” The law prevented matters of gender identity and sexual orientation from being taught to kids in kindergarten through third grade and prohibited schools from defying parents and hiding information from them when it comes to affirming a child’s gender identity.

This is a book that’s in some of the schools in California.

This is pornography. It’s cartoons. It’s aimed at children — and it’s wrong.

This should not be in schools. pic.twitter.com/XjM1QMrCJQ

— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) December 1, 2023

The Florida law was written in response to national concerns about LGBT indoctrination in schools and attempts elsewhere to shut parents out of what happens when their children are in school.

“What we’ve said in Florida is it’s inappropriate to tell a kindergartener that their gender is a choice,” Mr. DeSantis said. “It’s inappropriate to tell second graders that they may have been born in the wrong body. Now California has that. They want to have that injected into the elementary school.”

Mr. DeSantis brought a copy of a page from one of these books showing examples of explicit sexual acts, partly censored for the TV audience.

The Republican then pointed to a California law that allows minors to travel to the state for transgender procedures.

“If you’re a parent in Iowa or New Hampshire or South Carolina, your minor child can go to California without your knowledge or without your consent and get hormone therapy, puberty blockers, and a sex change operation,” Mr. DeSantis said. “That is extreme. That is an assault on parents’ rights.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Newsom accused Mr. DeSantis of being on a “banning binge” and that he “demeans” the LGBT community through his policies.

“What you’re doing is using education as a sword for your cultural purge,” the California governor said.

Crime

Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Newsom also debated crime and shootings.

The quality of life differences between the two states were a constant undercurrent of the debate.  Again – like a San Franciscan using the poop map app – Newsom repeatedly side-stepped the issue, baldly claiming California’s crime and homelessness issues are not really that bad and Florida has a city with a lot of murders, more than “even San Francisco.”

This is a map of San Francisco. There’s a lot of plots on that. You may be asking ‘what is that plotting?’

This is an app where they plot the human feces that are found on the streets of San Francisco.

That is what has happened in one of the previous greatest cities this… pic.twitter.com/otOz7dQxei

— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) December 1, 2023

Mr. Hannity had asked about the higher rate of violent crime in California as compared to Florida, comparing two figures that combined homicide, rape, and other offenses in a single year.

But Mr. Newsom reframed the topic by narrowing it. He pointed out that Florida has a higher murder rate than California. Indeed, the homicide death rate in Florida was higher than that of California in 2021 according to statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Experts have questioned the utility of comparisons of murder rates between states.

“State-level data is not very useful. States have both urban and rural areas—and policing is a local decision in cities, which tend to be Democratically controlled even in Republican states,” economist John Lott told The Epoch Times in 2022.

“People are leaving California in droves largely because public safety has collapsed,” Mr. DeSantis asserted, claiming that the state has “basically legalized retail theft.”

In California, stealing items under $950 is just a misdemeanor. The Hoover Institution’s Lee Ohanian has argued that the standard means “shoplifting is now de facto legal in California.”

Mr. Newsom also took issue with Mr. DeSantis’s past talk of pardoning people arrested in connection with the protests and riots in Washington on Jan. 6. While much of his rhetoric seemed to be aimed at a broader audience than liberal Democrats, the California governor and possible future presidential candidate didn’t shy away from more politically charged language when describing those individuals.

“I love this guy talking about ‘Backing the Blue’ when you dangled pardons for January 6th insurrectionists,” Mr. Newsom said.

*  *  *

Donald Trump’s name was only invoked in the debate when Gavin “DeSantis Is Being Mean to People” Newsom used it to ridicule DeSantis. 

Finally, as Paula Bolyard writes at PJMedia.com, when all was said and done, both men performed well, although Newsom frequently relied on lies to make his points.

I admit I’m biased, but Newsom came across as smarmy and artificially enhanced (by Botox and whatnot), even trotting out a fake Southern accent several times during the debate. At certain points, it felt like he was trying to channel Bill Clinton, which was super weird. 

DeSantis looked competent and was confident he was on the right side of every policy issue discussed. He apologized for nothing and was consistent in calling out Newsom’s incompetence and malfeasance. 

In the post-game show, former White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said the debate proved that “Democrats are from Mars and Republicans are from Venus.” 

He said DeSantis was “very practical, very focused on people’s daily lives,” while Newsom’s “whole message was identity politics.” 

“I thought Governor DeSantis did a pretty good job tonight defending his state and his record,” he added. He gave the Florida governor a B+ for his factual performance but a B- because he didn’t look Newsom in the eye enough. He gave Newsom a “D in terms of mangling the facts.” 

Democrat operative Harold Ford gave both a B+ and praised DeSantis’s performance. 

Former Congressman Jason Chaffetz said DeSantis looked “presidential” and “his disposition and demeanor were spot on.”

He predicted that the Florida governor would rise in the polls as a result of his performance. 

Former Trump Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said of Newsom, “In terms of being glib, yeah, I would give him an A.”

She gave DeSantis an A but warned that Newsom is “a sharp messenger.” “Watch out, he’s coming,” she added. 

Newsom swears (pinky promise!) that he’s not running a shadow campaign for president, but the only person who believes that whopper is the doddering Joe Biden. 

Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank

Inflation data from the Eurozone and the US were encouraging with declines in headline and core inflation. While inflation is falling, OPEC+ is said to have decided to cut oil production by 1 million barrels a day. This will not be announced by a communique, but individually by each country. This news was not enough to boost oil prices yesterday.

As our Elwin de Groot put it yesterday, Eurozone inflation data confirm the favorable trend seen in recent data in several member states, such as Germany, France and Spain. Headline inflation dropped more sharply than expected to 3.6 %y/y in November from 4.2% in October but it was a large negative surprise in core inflation that really drew attention. Core inflation fell to 3.6%, 0.3%-points more than the consensus estimate, which is a sizeable negative surprise.

The broad-based decline in inflation when looking at the key components suggests that the weakening economy is increasingly weighing on businesses’ willingness or perhaps even ability to raise prices. Energy, food, industrial goods and services inflation all fell. The question is whether services sector firms can refrain from price hikes when their cost base continues to increase (wages growing at a clip of 4-5% a year), but at least these data suggest that some service sector providers may be taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. The big size of the services inflation drop (from 4.6% to 3.9% y/y) may also point at one-off (or transitory) effects, such as from the recreation and culture sector, but lack of details at this point does not allow a firm conclusion there.

US PCE inflation fell to 3.0% headline and 3.5% core in October in year-on-year terms, with headline prices flat between September and October and core prices climbing by 0.2%. This means that both headline and core PCE inflation are now ahead of the FOMC projections made in September, which anticipated 3.3% headline and 3.7% core inflation in the final quarter of this year. Goods inflation has fallen to 0.2% from 0.9% year-on-year and services inflation to 4.4% from 4.7%. Even the component watched most closely by the FOMC improved. Core services ex housing inflation, as calculated by Bloomberg, fell to 3.9% from 4.3% year-on year and to 0.1% from 0.4% month-on-month. This should give the FOMC some confidence that this component, closely related to labor market tightness and wage growth, is easing as well. The PCE inflation data support the FOMC remaining on hold in December. In the remainder of the year, headline PCE inflation is likely to move sideways, while we expect core PCE inflation to continue its gradual decline.

Meanwhile, US personal spending slowed down to 0.2% in October, both in nominal and real terms. This is in line with the Fed’s Beige Book, published on Wednesday, which concluded that sales of discretionary items and durable goods declined on average. Personal income also slowed down to 0.2%, from 0.4% (revised) in September.

Initial jobless claims rebounded modestly to 218K in the week ending on November 25, from 211K (revised) a week before. Continuing claims saw a bigger jump to 1927K in the week ending on November 18, from 1841K (revised) a week earlier. This is the highest level in almost two years, after 1964K in the week ending on November 26. 2021. Note that the unemployment rate has quietly risen to 3.9% from 3.4% this year. An increase of this size in the three month averages of the unemployment rate would signal the start of a recession according to the Sahm rule. We are not there yet, but we continue to expect a US recession in the coming months.

In an interview with a German financial newspaper earlier this month, but published yesterday, San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly, who will be voting in 2024, said it was too soon to say if hikes are finished, that interest rates are in a very good place to control inflation and she’s not thinking about rate cuts. However, she said “We don’t need an insurance mentality now, where we hedge against rising inflation. We should simply be patient and remain vigilant.” So Daly wants the FOMC to remain on hold, but is in no hurry to cut rates.

New York Fed president John Williams, speaking at a conference, said the Fed’s policy rate is at or near its peak level and that rates are “estimated to be the most restrictive in 25 years.” He said he expected it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some time to fully restore balance to our 2% longer-run goal on a sustainable basis. Williams is a permanent voter on the FOMC and also in no rush to pivot. Markets may be getting ahead of themselves by pricing in an almost 50% chance of a rate cut in March, but even the FOMC’s own projections made in September showed two rate cuts of 25 bps each before the end of 2024.

While we seem to be heading for a rematch between Biden and Trump in the 2024 US presidential election, Fox hosted a debate between Governor Gavin Newsom (Democrat, California) and Governor Ron DeSantis (Republican, Florida), which can either be seen as an early presidential debate for 2028 or a debate between two reserve-candidates for 2024. DeSantis probably hoped to boost his chances in the current Republican primaries, after Nikki Haley’s campaign to be the main challenger to Trump has gained momentum.

The Gaza truce has collapsed and Israel has resumed its bombing campaign of the Strip, following a full week of ceasefire and seven rounds of hostage/prisoner exchanges.

Qatar and Egypt were reportedly pressing to extend the temporary pause in fighting for another two days, but Israel was not satisfied with the list of captives offered. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been looking into Hamas claims that the two young Bibas brothers were killed. “Israeli military has informed Bibas family members it is assessing a Hamas claim that the youngest Israeli hostage, 10-month-old Kfir Bibas, his brother Ariel, 4, and their mother Shiri are no longer alive,” CNN reports.

This grim and tragic revelation is likely what left Israel with less incentive to keep the ceasefire going, also as pressure has mounted from ultra-conservative circles within Netanyahu’s own ruling coalition to take the fight back to Hamas, and to see through the vow of eliminating the terror group. 

Another big factor was Thursday’s terror attack involving a pair of Palestinian gunmen who unleashed M16 and pistol fire on a crowd waiting at a Jerusalem bus stop, killing three Israelis and injuring 16. Shortly after the attack, Hamas claimed responsibility.

It’s likely that negotiators in Doha are still scrambling to get a ceasefire urgently back in place. After all, Israel says there are still 137 hostages in Hamas captivity, which also includes some Americans. In total 110 were returned home over the past week, with hundreds of Palestinian prisoners released as part of the swap. The Times of Israel details of those who remain captive: 

Among those still in captivity after the end of the truce Friday are 115 men, 20 women and two children, government spokesperson Eylon Levy says. Ten of the hostages are 75 and older, he says. The majority, or 126, are Israeli and 11 are foreign nationals, including eight from Thailand.

Levy lists the youngest hostage, 10-month-old Kfir Bibas, his 4-year-old brother Ariel and their mother Shiri as among the hostages. The military has said it is investigating a Hamas claim that the boys and their mother were killed.

Dozens of Palestinians have been reported killed after airstrikes started again Friday morning…

Israel renewed its bombing campaign of the Gaza Strip on Friday morning after talks to extend the truce which went into effect a week ago had failed.

Dozens of Palestinians have been killed by the new bombardments, which hit buildings in Khan Younis, Rafah and northern Gaza. pic.twitter.com/ZGCXSycNaG

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) December 1, 2023

Israel and mediators in Qatar were able to secure the release of most of the women and children hostages, as the last days have seen, but still 20 women remain along with the possibly still alive Bibas brothers, fate unknown. Israel as of Thursday welcomed eight more Israelis back from Hamas captivity.

The IDF is meanwhile already dropping leaflets over parts of southern Israel telling civilians to leave their homes and leave the area. Prior to the truce, there were sporadic bombardments of parts of the south. But now it looks like the IDF will take the fight to the southern half too, even after Secretary of State Blinken’s urgings not to, conveyed to PM Netanyahu yesterday.

Blinken flew out of Tel Aviv as IDF warplanes began the renewed bombing campaign…

As Israel resumed its attack on Gaza today, @SecBlinken‘s “motorcade sped out of his hotel in Israel on its way to the Tel Aviv airport… Asked onboard his plane, Blinken declined to comment.”

Reminds me of when Ford and Kissinger visited Indonesia in December 1975 and gave the… pic.twitter.com/HOHe6VHjur

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) December 1, 2023

Rockets have resumed being fired from Gaza, and Israel is again evacuating some southern communities, as both sides could once again be settling in for a ‘long war’. Rockets could also once again be coming from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is likely to rejoin the fight. On Thursday Blinken had urged Netanyahu to avoid killing civilians and that the soaring Gaza death toll is increasingly turning world opinion against Israel.

US futures reversed some of Thursday’s gains to start the final month of the year after a blowout performance in November, as European stocks gained, and Asia stuttered. US Treasuries and the dollar posted small moves before comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 11am ET that may offer clues on the path of interest rates. Oil rebounded after OPEC+ promised further output cuts but was hazy on details. Israel resumed fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after a weeklong truce ended: Israel’s army said Hamas violated the cease-fire terms by firing toward its territory. Bitcoin soared to its highest price so far this year. Base metals are rallying after the strong China Caixin Mfg. PMI results (50.7 s. 49.6 survey vs. 49.5 prior). Today, we get the November ISM-Mfg. at 10am ET (exp. 47.9, last 46.7) and hear from Powell at a “fireside chat” at Spelman College in Atlanta on Friday at 11am ET ahead of Fed’s blackout period. Focus for Powell events is whether he’ll back dovish comments earlier this week by Fed Governor Waller, which spurred a rally across front-end of the Treasuries curve.

In premarket trading, Pfizer dropped 3.5% after dropping development of its experimental weight-loss pill. Tesla slipped 2.1% as the electric-vehicle maker kicked off deliveries of its Cybertruck. RBC said the vehicle is priced at the higher end of expectations. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Marvell Technology slipped 5% after the chipmaker’s fourth-quarter revenue forecast fell short of expectations.
• PagerDuty rose 5% after the company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
• Dell Technologies drops 5.4% after reporting revenue that declined more than expected, buffeted by continued sluggish corporate demand for personal computers.
• Lemonade falls 3.2% after Oppenheimer downgraded the insurance company, noting the outlook for weather patterns to return to normal in 2024 after a relatively quiet 2023.
• Samsara, a provider of GPS fleet tracking, gains 13% after boosting its profit and revenue guidance for the full year.
• UiPath jumps 14% as analysts hike their targets after third-quarter results beat expectations at the robotic process automation software company.
• Ulta Beauty gains 12% after the cosmetics retailer reported forecast-beating comparable sales growth in the third quarter.

After we predicted one month ago to brace for a face-ripping rally in November…

1. Dealer gamma turns deeply positive
2. $5BN in daily buybacks until mid-Dec
3. CTAs buying up to $200BN in global stocks over next month
4. Hedge Funds least net long since 2011
5. Seasonals pic.twitter.com/Rv3U1HLGHx

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2023

… that’s precisely what happened, as US stocks posted their best month in close to a year-and-a-half and had their second-best November since 1980s, defying the skeptical calls and fueling hopes that more gains are to come, while the MSCI All Country World Index saw its third-largest monthly gain in the past decade. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped by the most in a year, while US Treasury yields tumbled about 60 basis points in the month. This was mostly down to plunging bond yields amid mounting signs that the Federal Reserve is managing to tame inflation without breaking the economy. Money-market fund assets surged to a fresh all-time high and Cathie Wood got in on the action too, with her ARKK Innovation ETF racking up a 31% gain for the month.

“Almost everyone was offsides coming into November,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. Everyone except for our raders that is. “There’s still a big opportunity for traders to chase gains in December, too.”

This morning, investors were trying to assess if November’s scorching gains across asset classes can go further. Yesterday’s core PCE data showed that the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation eased in October, adding to the case for an end to the Fed’s tightening and bolstering the narrative that lifted markets globally last month. Some suggest optimistic market wagers on the timing of interest-rate cuts next year read too much into recent comments by Fed officials. Powell is set to speak at Spelman College in Atlanta on Friday.

“The market is wondering whether it has gone ahead of itself in expecting US rate cuts next year,” said Sébastien Barbé, head of emerging-market research and strategy at Credit Agricole. “From Powell’s point of view, it may be tempting to warn the market against excess optimism about possible rate cuts in order to keep monetary conditions tight enough to make sure disinflation is sustainable.”

Meanwhile, oil prices steadied after the drop suffered yesterday following an OPEC+ meeting which sewed confusion among traders. The cartel promised further cuts to output but was hazy on the details, with the lack of a concluding press conference and final communiques leaving the market puzzled. Notably, the cuts agreed are voluntary, so whether the additional supply cuts that were announced will be delivered remains to be seen. Part of the rebound was driven by news Israel resumed fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after a weeklong truce ended. Israel’s army said Hamas violated the cease-fire terms by firing toward its territory. Jets started striking Gaza soon after the deadline passed. Israel dropped leaflets telling people to leave some parts of southern Gaza. Qatar said truce negotiations continue

European stocks gain in early Friday trading, with the advance led by the Stoxx 600 Basic Resources index, as mining stocks outperform after broker upgrades, with the Automotive and Food, Beverage & Tobacco sectors the worst performing. Anglo American and Rio Tinto led gains in the Stoxx 600 Index after China’s manufacturing data beat estimates. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.7% with the FTSE 100 outperforming regional peers. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Mining shares outperform in Europe on Friday as Anglo American and Rio Tinto are upgraded to buy at UBS and Liberum, respectively, with Anglo American gaining as much as 7.6%, the most since September
• Signify shares rise as much as 6.6% after the lighting maker announced a new divisional structure and said it will implement measures to reduce non-manufacturing costs by more than €200 million
• Jenoptik rises as much as 5.8% after the optical systems technology firm upgraded its Ebitda margin target for 2025, citing better-than-expected organic development in its semiconductors and electronics businesses
• Technogym gains as much as 11% after NIF Holding bought about 8.8 million ordinary shares of the fitness-equipment maker at €9.20 apiece in a reverse accelerated bookbuilding
• Leonteq shares tumble as much as 18% to the lowest level since 2020 after the Swiss technology and service provider revised down its FY2023 forecast. ZKB flags that the dividend could be reduced
• LVMH shares fall as much as 1.9% after the luxury goods maker is downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley given the likelihood of a further deterioration in demand for the industry in the fourth quarter
• Viaplay shares plunge as much as 83%, the most on record, in early Friday trading. Analysts said shareholders can expect to see their holdings reduced to almost nothing under a new recapitalization plan
• Ceres Power shares plunge as much as 27%, the most since 2012, after the UK-based energy generator and distributor said it hasn’t been able to conclude a new license partnership in this financial year
• ITV shares fall as much as 2.9% after Deutsche Bank downgraded rating on the broadcaster to hold from buy, citing headwinds from a continued slump in advertising revenue
• Swiss Re shares fall as much as 2% as investors focus on its new reserving allowance, which is expected to have a “negative impact” of approximately $500 million on profit after tax

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as concerns about China’s economy persisted, with sentiment cautious ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.4%, led by technology shares, as some Fed officials remained wary of interest rate cuts next year. Tech-heavy markets such as South Korea and Taiwan also fell. Stocks in Japan gained as a stall in yen strength boosted exporters. Chinese shares declined, extending their recent underperformance versus global peers, with the CSI 300 Index set for its lowest close since 2019. Investors remained concerned about the weak economic recovery even as a private survey of China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded. The decline in home sales also accelerated in November despite more funding support for developers. Chinese’s losses were almost erased, however, after the China Securities Journal reported that the “National Team” was back as an unidentified Chinese state institution bought exchange-traded funds whose underlying assets are A-shares issued by central state-owned enterprises in the domestic stock market Friday.

• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were gradually pressured following the PBoC’s substantial net liquidity drain, whilst the latter eventually moved into the green amid reports China state-owned capital operating Co. reportedly bought ETFs on Friday, whilst the session also saw a surprise return to expansion territory for the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded indecisively as encouraging data releases offset the headwinds from early currency strength.
• Australia’s ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and consumer-related sectors amid higher yields.

In FX, US equity futures are steady, while the dollar was slightly down ahead of speeches by the Fed’s Powell and Goolsbee. US ISM manufacturing data is also due. DKK and EUR are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NOK and SEK outperform.

In rates, Treasuries were slightly cheaper across the curve with losses led by long-end, moving inverted 2s10s spread back toward top of Thursday’s range. TSY yields are cheaper by up to 2bp across long-end of the curve with 2s10s spread wider by 0.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 4.345% with bunds outperforming by 3.5bp in the sector, Italian 10-year by 5bp. Focus for Powell events is whether he’ll back dovish comments earlier this week by Fed Governor Waller, which spurred a rally across front-end of the Treasuries curve. Fed-dated OIS currently price in a 25bp rate cut in May and a total of 112bp cuts by the December FOMC meeting. US economic data includes November S&P Global manufacturing PMI (9:45am New York time), October construction spending and November ISM manufacturing (10am). In Europe, Italian bonds outperform following surprise drop in Italy’s manufacturing PMI for November; bund 10-year yields are down some 2 bps, outperforming comparable USTs and gilts. US session includes manufacturing data and two scheduled appearances by Fed Chair Powell.

In commodities, oil pared some post-OPEC+ losses. WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 0.3% to trade near $76.20. Spot gold was on track for a third weekly gain, rising roughly $8 to trade near $2,045/oz as it inches toward its all-time high after Israel resumed its war against Hamas; it was then summarily smacked down by some central bank amid fears a new all time high will lead to a surge in gold to $2500 and higher and destabilize the fiat system. Most base metals trade in the green after China’s Caixin Mfg PMI unexpectedly entered expansion, rising to 50.7 from 49.5, and beating estimates of 49.8; LME tin rose 1.3%, outperforming peers.

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Barr, Goolsbee and Cook, ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Elderson and De Cos. Data releases include the global manufacturing PMIs, along with the ISM manufacturing reading from the US.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,583.75
• MXAP down 0.3% to 161.81
• MXAPJ down 0.6% to 503.36
• Nikkei down 0.2% to 33,431.51
• Topix up 0.3% to 2,382.52
• Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 16,830.30
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,031.64
• Sensex up 0.7% to 67,464.96
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,073.18
• Kospi down 1.2% to 2,505.01
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 464.87
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.42%
• Euro little changed at $1.0898
• Brent Futures down 0.4% to $80.51/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,048.93
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 103.32

Top overnight news

• China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for Nov came in ahead of plan at 50.7, up from 49.5 in Oct and above the Street’s 49.6 forecast (this follows the NBS PMIs Wed night falling short of expectations). RTRS
• Europe’s final manufacturing PMI for Nov came in at 44.2, up from the flash reading of 43.8. BBG
• Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pushed to “accelerate” the construction of military fortifications at key points along the frontline in the east of the country where Russian forces have stepped up attacks in recent weeks. FT
• Israel resumed fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after a weeklong truce ended. Israel’s army said Hamas violated the cease-fire terms by firing toward its territory. Jets started striking Gaza soon after the deadline passed. Israel dropped leaflets telling people to leave some parts of southern Gaza. Qatar said truce negotiations continue. BBG
• Washington aims to slash Russia’s oil and gas revenue by 50% by the end of the decade to ensure Putin doesn’t have the funds to attack his neighbors. FT
• Caracas has for over 200 years claimed rights over Essequibo, a vast swath of the territory of neighbouring Guyana. But only now has it opted to hold a referendum among Venezuelans on taking over the 160,000 sq km of land. FT
• PFE announces a setback in its GLP1 anti-obesity ambitions. Its twice-daily danuglipron formulation will NOT advance into P3 studies.  The drug achieved weight reductions of 8-13% over 32 weeks and 5-9.5% at 26 weeks, less than the 14-15% many thought would be needed to compete in the market. More significantly (and negatively), there were high rates of adverse side effects (up to 73% nausea; up to 47% vomiting; up to 25% diarrhea) and high discontinuation rates (greater than 50%). RTRS
• Apple and Paramount Global have discussed bundling their streaming services at a discount, the latest attempt by rival entertainment giants to team up as they look to make their offerings more affordable and attractive. WSJ
• BPCE is exploring options for its $1.2 trillion Natixis asset management business, including selling a majority stake, people familiar said. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the new month with price action rangebound as markets paused following the November rally amid another busy day of economic releases, while the conflict in Gaza also resumed. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and consumer-related sectors amid higher yields. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively as encouraging data releases offset the headwinds from early currency strength. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were gradually pressured following the PBoC’s substantial net liquidity drain, whilst the latter eventually moved into the green amid reports China state-owned capital operating Co. reportedly bought ETFs on Friday, whilst the session also saw a surprise return to expansion territory for the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.

Top Asian news

• China state-owned capital operating Co. reportedly bought ETFs on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
• US judge blocked the Montana state ban on Tiktok from taking effect, according to a court order.
• US lawmakers seek a Biden administration investigation into Chinese drone maker Autel Robotics due to national security concerns.
• Japan’s largest trade union RENGO said it formally agreed on a 2024 pay hike demand of 5% or more, according to Reuters.

European equities, Eurostoxx50, +0.5%, are extending gains; FTSE100, +0.8%, which has been lifted by mining-related stocks. European sectors are mostly in the green, with significant outperformance in Basic Resources, being propped up by mining stocks following broker upgrades at Anglo American, +6.4%, and Antofagasta, +4.7%; Optimised Personal Care & Grocery is marginally hampered by a Tesco, -1.3%, downgrade. US Futures are trading on the front foot, albeit to a lesser extent in comparison to their European counterparts ahead of ISM & Powell; RTY, +0.3%, slightly outperforms.

Top European news

• ECB’s Nagel said recent inflation developments are encouraging but the ECB cannot be satisfied yet and inflation risks are still on the upside so a further rate hike cannot be ruled out. Nagel also stated that longer-term inflation expectations are still some way from 2% and that a leaner ECB balance sheet is desirable and the reduction can accelerate, while he added it is far too early to discuss rate cuts.
• EU weighs concessions in the US steel feud amid concerns over a Trump return, according to Bloomberg sources.
• German government spokesperson, re. budget talks, says they are aware of the urgency and there is a lot of momentum to solve this as soon as possible

FX

• Dollar drifts after month-end revival awaiting US manufacturing ISM for interim impetus before guidance from Fed Chair Powell; DXY dithering within 103.45-26 range.
• Kiwi back in sight of 0.6200 vs Greenback after hawkish RBNZ rhetoric from Hawkesby.
• Aussie encouraged by China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI rebound to 50.0+ level as AUD/USD hold above 0.6600.
• Loonie underpinned ahead of Canadian LFS with USD/CAD sub-1.3550.
• Cable firm on 1.2600 handle after upward revision to final UK manufacturing PMI.
• Euro tethered to 1.0900 vs Dollar amidst nearby option expiries and post-mostly better than flash or forecast Eurozone manufacturing PMIs.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1104 vs exp. 7.1458 (prev. 7.1018).

Fixed Income

• Debt futures back on a firmer footing, on balance, after steep month end retracement.
• Bunds bounce further from sub-132.00 towards 133.00 again.
• Gilts towards top of 96.80-25 range, but still lagging in run up to Fitch UK rating review.
• T-note hovering around 110-00 within 110-04/109-27+ confines awaiting US manufacturing ISM and Fed speakers headlined by Chair Powell twice.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are modestly firmer intraday in the aftermath of the OPEC+ confab on Thursday which ultimately underwhelmed the market given that output cuts are voluntary; as it stands, benchmarks are holding incrementally above the unchanged mark in narrow ranges around the prior session’s trough.
• Spot gold holds an upward bias as the Dollar remains subdued; Base metals are firmer across the board amid upbeat Chinese data overnight, and upward bias in risk sentiment in Europe.
• OPEC Secretariat announced several OPEC+ countries will conduct additional voluntary cuts to the total of 2.2mln BPD (exp. 2.0mln). It was confirmed that Brazil will join OPEC+ from January 2024.
• Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary cut of 1mln BPD to the end of Q1 2024 with its production to be approx. 9mln BPD and Russia is also to extend its voluntary cut in oil supplies until the end of Q1 2024 with its voluntary supply cut to reach 500k BPD. Kuwait is to make a further 135k BPD OPEC+ oil output cut, while the UAE is to make an additional 160k BPD OPEC+ output cut and Iraq is said to cut its production by 220k BPD in Q1. Conversely, Angola rejected its OPEC quota for 1.11mln BPD and said it will produce 1.18mln BPD, according to Bloomberg. Click here for the detailed headline.
• US is purchasing 2.73mln bbls of oil for the strategic reserve, according to a document cited by Reuters.
• US aims to halve Russia’s energy revenue by 2030, while Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Pyatt said Western sanctions will continue for years to come to curb Moscow’s war machine, according to FT.
• US President Biden and Angola’s President welcomed the launch of a US-Angola energy security dialogue in 2024 during a meeting on Thursday, according to the White House
• US State Department said the US reiterated its pledge to ‘reconsider’ the steps it took to ease sanctions on Venezuela if the latter fails to comply with certain commitments by the end-November deadline, while it added that Venezuela must define steps for lifting bans on opposition candidates and begin the release of Venezuelan political prisoners and wrongfully detained Americans. It was later reported that banned Venezuelan candidates would be allowed to take their cases to a tribunal.
• Morgan Stanley says commitment to new OPEC+ cuts appears to be uncertain, expect compliance to only be partial, Foresees Saudi Arabia ultimately extending the cuts to Q2-2024. Maintain Brent forecast at USD 85/bb and flat throughout 2024. Lowered OPEC+ production forecast for Q1-2024 by 0.6mln BPD, still see the oil market turning into a small surplus again in Q2 & Q3.
• Russia’s Kremlin says OPEC+ contributes to stabilisation of energy markets and creation of conditions for supporting energy prices at a balanced level; Russia is interested in continuing working with OPEC+.
• First Quantum is suspending production guidance for Cobre Panama for the current year

Geopolitics

• Israel’s military said that Hamas violated the truce and fired towards Israeli territory, while it has resumed combat against Hamas in Gaza
• Initial reports suggested Israel and Hamas agreed to extend the truce for an eighth day, according to Egyptian officials cited by WSJ. However, there was no official statement made by Israel, Hamas or mediator Qatar.
• Rocket sirens sounded in Israeli areas near the Gaza border and the Israeli military said one launch was detected from Gaza which was intercepted, while Hamas-affiliated media reported that explosions and gunfire were heard in the northern Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Israeli planes were reportedly flying over Gaza and Israeli army vehicles are firing in the northwest of the Gaza Strip, according to a correspondent cited by Al Jazeera.
• The Israeli army raises the alert on the border with Lebanon, according to Al Arabiya
• Qatari and Egyptian mediators have been in contact with Hamas and Israel since fighting resumed in Gaza on Friday, according to Reuters citing sources; negotiations between both sides is continuing
• Senior Hezbollah member says Lebanon remain ready to confront any danger from Israel, adds Gaza developments can still affect the Lebanon situation
• US Treasury Department issued new North Korean sanctions targeting 8 individuals and the hacking group Kimsuky, while South Korea imposed sanctions on 11 North Korean individuals, according to the Foreign Ministry.

US Event Calendar

• 09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.5, prior 49.4
• 10:00: Oct. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00: Nov. ISM Employment, est. 47.2, prior 46.8
• 10:00: Nov. ISM New Orders, est. 46.7, prior 45.5
• 10:00: Nov. ISM Prices Paid, est. 45.9, prior 45.1
• 10:00: Nov. ISM Manufacturing, est. 47.8, prior 46.7

Central Banks

• 03:00: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Bank Supervision and Regulation
• 10:00: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Discussion
• 11:00: Fed’s Powell Speaks in Fireside Chat
• 14:00: Fed’s Powell, Cook Participate in Roundtable Discussion

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy December. My wife is organizing Santa’s Grotto at the kids’ school tomorrow and until yesterday was missing one key thing. A Santa! A call over the last few weeks for a volunteer amongst all parents and grandparents had fallen upon deaf ears so my wife rung a couple of agencies and found the cheapest Santa was £600 for 90mins work. So that’s a great business to get into, although I accept the work might have a seasonal bias!

Since it’s the start of December this morning, we’ll shortly be releasing our monthly performance review for November. Overall, it was a great month for markets after a run of three fairly weak ones, which has led to a big turnaround in some of the YTD numbers for 2023. In fact, it was the best month for global bonds since December 2008, the best month for US bonds since May 1985, as well as the strongest month for the S&P 500 this year. The full report will be in your inboxes shortly.

Whether the trends of November continue into Xmas might in part depend on Powell’s speech later today (4pm GMT), just before the FOMC blackout. Market moves have been so great since he suggested that tight financial conditions were doing some of the Fed’s job for them (November 1st) that you have to think he will address the subsequent moves and either push back or endorse. On balance I think he may take a similar tone to Williams yesterday and push back a little while acknowledging the progress that has seemingly been made .

On that theme, NY Fed President Williams’ remarks yesterday helped the month end on a soggier tone, especially for bonds. He said he expects “it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some time to fully restore balance and to bring inflation back to our 2% longer-run goal on a sustained basis .” Separately, San Francisco President Daly said that “I’m not thinking about rate cuts at all right now”.

Those developments had a notable impact on sovereign bonds, which pared back some of their recent gains on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the 10yr Treasury yield bounced back +7.1bps to 4.33%. Over in Europe there were slightly smaller moves for 10yr bunds (+1.5bps), OATs (+2.3bps) and BTPs (+5.5bps), while Gilts underperformed (+8.0bps) .

This came even as the data generally pointed in a dovish direction. In particular, we had the latest PCE inflation data for October yesterday, which is the measure the Fed officially targets. That showed headline PCE at a monthly 0.0% (vs. +0.1% expected), which brought the year-on-year number down to +3.0%, and the lowest since March 2021. It also brings us closer to the sort of numbers where the Fed has historically pivoted towards rate cuts in the past. Core PCE was still a bit higher at +3.5%, but to be fair, the more recent figures have been better, and if you just look at the last 6 months alone, core PCE is now down to an annualised +2.5% .

Over in the Euro Area, there was similarly good news from the flash CPI reading for November. It showed headline annual inflation was down to +2.4% (vs +2.7% expected) , the lowest since July 2021, and almost back at the ECB’s 2% target. This was partly down to a big negative impetus from energy prices, which are currently down -11.5% year-on-year. Core inflation remained more elevated at +3.6% but this also surprised clearly on the downside (+3.9% exp) with a marked slowdown in the past three months, down from +5.3% as recently as August.

Amidst the better news on inflation, the bigger concern came from the labour market, where the latest data showed things were continuing to soften. For example, US continuing jobless claims were up to their highest level in almost two years, at 1.927m (vs. 1.865m expected). Seasonals seem to be a little all over the place this year so some caution is required. Meanwhile in Germany, the r egistered unemployment rate climbed to a two-and-a-half year high of 5.9%, so this wasn’t just a US theme. As it happens, we’re now just a week away from the final US jobs report of the year, and it was last month that the unemployment rate hit its highest since January 2022. So if it does show any further softening, that’ll only ramp up the H1 2024 rate cut speculation as we get closer to the Fed’s December meeting just a few days later .

With the data softening, US equities continued their pretty flat performance this week. But a sizeable rally in the final 30 minutes of US trading, probably reflecting month-end flows, left the S&P 500 posting a decent rise (+0.38%). Bank stocks outperformed for the second day in a row (+1.03%), while a strong day for industrials led the Dow Jones index to a +1.47% gain. Tech stocks underperformed, with the NASDAQ (-0.23%) and the FANG+ index (-0.27%) dipping. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.55%) continued its recent outperformance, closing at a two-month high .

This morning Asian equity markets are drifting lower at the start of the last month of the year despite the late-day rebound on Wall Street overnight. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-1.03%) is the biggest underperformer across the region with the CSI (-0.91%), the Hang Seng (-0.69%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.32%) also trading in the red amid mixed economic signals from China (more on this below). Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.03%) is flickering between gains and losses this morning. In overnight trading, US stock futures are indicating a negative start with those on the S&P 500 (-0.06%) just below flat while those on the NASDAQ 100 (-0.19%) inching lower.

Coming back to China, the Caixin PMI measure of the manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in November, hitting 50.7 (v/s 49.6 expected). That was the fastest expansion in three months and up from 49.5 in October. Of course, the Caixin PMI stands in contrast to the latest official PMI which dropped to 49.4, highlighting that mores stimulus will likely be required to reinvigorate growth in the world’s second biggest economy.

Elsewhere, Japan’s unemployment rate edged down to 2.5% in October (v/s 2.6% expected) while the job-to-application ratio slightly went up to 1.30 after having stayed at 1.29 in the preceding three months. In a separate report, capital spending in 3Q23 advanced +3.4% y/y as expected after a +4.5% gain in the previous quarter.

Elsewhere yesterday, oil prices gave up their earlier gains following the conclusion of the OPEC+ meeting. T he group agreed additional supply cuts totalling about 900kb/d on top of an existing reduction of 1,300kb/d by Saudi Arabia and Russia . However, the move was in the form of “voluntary cuts” by several OPEC+ countries rather than a more typical agreement on reduced production quotas, leaving questions over how disciplined the implementation of the supply curbs will be. WTI crude had been trading c. 2% higher on the day prior to the news but fell by more than 5% intra-day and was down -2.44% by the close at $75.96/bbl. Brent crude saw more modest swings, and was down -0.32% to $82.83/bbl yesterday. Overnight, Brent crude prices are under pressure, trading -2.61% lower to trade at $80.67/bbl on softer output cuts .

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the Fed’s Barr, Goolsbee and Cook, ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Elderson and De Cos. Data releases include the global manufacturing PMIs, along with the ISM manufacturing reading from the US.