Biden’s Natural Gas Export ‘Pause’ Is Based on Bad Math


Joe Biden speaking at a microphone |  Liu Jie / Xinhua News Agency/Newscom

The Biden administration’s decision to “pause” the approval of new natural gas export facilities has been cheered by environmental activists as an important step in the fight against climate change.

It remains unclear, however, whether the policy will actually reduce global carbon emissions—even though that seems like something you’d want to know for sure before moving ahead with a major change in federal energy policy.

In the official announcement on January 26, the White House framed the decision to pause approvals for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities as a way to confront climate change, which it calls the “existential threat of our time.” More technically, the pause will allow the Department of Energy to update its rules for permitting future LNG export facilities.

But the pause is a limited one. It will only affect exports of LNG to countries with which the U.S. does not have a free trade agreement, and it does not prevent exports from the eight LNG export facilities already operating—though it will slow construction on several other export facilities, including one in Louisiana that would be America’s largest when finished. Even with the “pause” in place, the White House says America’s LNG exports are expected to double by the end of the decade, thanks to America’s booming natural gas industry and the energy needs of a world that’s getting wealthier.

While it is all a bit complicated, what the Biden administration announced last week amounts to an attempt to slow the growth of America’s natural gas exports—underpinned by the rationale that the slowdown will reduce global carbon emissions.

That’s a rationale based on some dubious assumptions. The climate activists who pushed the White House to consider the “pause” on new LNG export facilities point to an analysis released in November by former Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) policy advisor Jeremy Symons. Among other things, that report found that planned expansions of LNG exports in the U.S. would cause an increase in carbon emissions equal to the current level of emissions from the entire European Union.

That report, as the environmental policy newsletter Heatmap notes, was not subject to peer-review and was based on another set of data, from a researcher at Cornell University, that has also not cleared the usual process for confirming academic research.

Even if Symons’ report is right—indeed, an increase in natural gas exports seems likely to result in more global use of natural gas, even if he’s wrong about the scale of the increase—there’s a huge blind spot in that analysis. On his Slow Boring Substack, liberal blogger Matthew Yglesias points out that Symons “doesn’t even purport to estimate the net impact on emissions.”

In other words: How much would the increase in global natural gas consumption offset emissions from dirtier forms of fuel like coal and oil?

That’s the key question to ask. A significant reason why the United States has seen an overall decrease in carbon emissions in recent years is due to natural gas supplanting coal as the country’s top energy source.

The Biden administration is well aware of how exporting more natural gas could facilitate a similar transition in other parts of the world. When the Department of Energy signed off on a new LNG export facility in Corpus Christie, Texas, in March 2022, it concluded that “to the extent U.S. LNG exports are preferred over coal in LNG-importing nations, U.S. LNG exports are likely to reduce global [greenhouse gas] emissions on per unit of energy consumed basis for power production.”

For that matter, it’s also unclear whether pausing the expansion of U.S. exports of LNG will do much of anything to curb the global consumption of natural gas. Isn’t it more likely that LNG-importing countries will simply shift their supply chains towards other producers of natural gas, like Russia?

It’s telling that the White House and Department of Energy have not even offered answers to those two huge questions about the potential consequences of this decision. If the entire policy is predicated on the importance of slowing global emissions, it’s only fair to expect the federal government to show its work and prove that reducing the growth of American LNG exports actually will reduce global emissions.

Without that, this looks like a politically motivated maneuver aimed at garnering election-year praise from environmental activists on the left—and, let’s be honest, that’s probably exactly what it is.

The post Biden's Natural Gas Export 'Pause' Is Based on Bad Math appeared first on Reason.com.

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‘Independent Contractor’ Rule Latest Dumpster Fire Exported From California

‘Independent Contractor’ Rule Latest Dumpster Fire Exported From California

Authored by Mary Katherine Ham via RealClear Wire,

California is known for many things –  beautiful scenery, surfing, wine, movies, singing raisins. But perhaps its biggest exports now are its failed public policies and the hundreds of thousands of people leaving the state because they cannot live with those policies. 

One of those infamous policies and the havoc it’s bound to wreak has gone national, thanks to labor department rules issued by the Biden administration. A 339-page Department of Labor rule – you can always count on the federal government to keep it pithy – would make it much harder to be an independent contractor or freelance worker in America. Created to replace a simpler Trump-era rule, it’s modeled on AB5, a disastrous 2019 California law that made independent contracting and freelance work so hard to do that it effectively outlawed it in the Golden State. 

That law was so calamitous, despite its advertised intent of ensuring more employment benefits for more workers, even California had to admit it, scrambling to make fixes and hand out hundreds of exemptions to the law. Those exemptions are, of course, based on lobbying and political clout, leaving smaller, unconnected people to languish or leave the state. The list of exemptions is now more than 20 times longer than the original law. Some industries, like freelance transcription services, simply ceased to exist in California, said Karen Anderson, a freelancer who founded Freelancers Against AB5. Small community theaters suffered, unable to afford to make their freelancers into full-time employees, and that was before they got walloped by COVID restrictions. AB5’s opposition has collected the stories of hundreds of Californians and former Californians who had their livelihoods ruined or disrupted by AB5. 

“The chilling effect alone is enough to make a corporation or a business skittish about hiring an independent contractor at all,” Anderson said, noting the same is probably already happening with Biden’s regulation.

It was just a complete and total dumpster fire (in California),” she said.

A study on the employment effects of AB5, by economists at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center quantified the dumpster fire by comparing traditional and self-employment rates in California to other states with less strict independent contracting rules. If the law did what its proponents claimed they wanted, it would have increased traditional employment while decreasing self-employment. Instead, the data showed that “AB5 is significantly associated with a decline in self-employment and overall employment,” suggesting businesses were unable to afford to turn freelancers into full-time employees, and people who wished to do independent contracting were pushed out of the labor market or out of the state.

This shouldn’t come as a great surprise, as the Mercatus study notes these results follow a fairly simple economic principle: “While these regulations provide important benefits to workers, they also increase the cost of labor, which may reduce employment, hours worked, or wages.”

So, why export it to the rest of the American work force, over a third of which did some kind of independent contract work in 2023, according to surveys, amounting to more than 60 million workers?

Gov. Gavin Newsom being Newsom, declared his state’s rolling catastrophe the model for America, and Biden both on the campaign trail and in office, agreed. He pushed the passage of the PRO Act, which mirrors AB5 in California, as part of his attempt to be the “the most pro-union president you’d ever seen.”

Unable to muster support in the Senate to pass the law, the administration turned to its bureaucratic buddies to implement the philosophy from his 2023 Labor Day proclamation – “when organized labor wins, our Nation wins.”

And that’s really the point of these laws. As demands for flexibility and novel work arrangements increase in the modern economy, driven in part by the policies of the pandemic era, fewer Americans work traditional jobs and fewer Americans are in unions. Biden and Newsom want more of them in unions, even if they don’t want to be. Supporters argue these laws simply prevent misclassification of workers, which deprives them of benefits they’re due. But there are already laws on the books to prevent misclassification. It’s no accident that the author of AB5, Lorena Gonzalez, leapt from the legislature to leading the California Labor Federation while California’s enforcer for AB5, Julie Su, is now acting Secretary of Labor. 

“Misclassification is not what this and AB5 are aimed at. What they’re aimed at is millions of other people who have willfully chosen to work independently bc that is what is best suited to their lifestyle,” said Rep. Kevin Kiley of California, who introduced legislation to nullify the rule under the Congressional Review Act and prohibit funding for its enforcement. “It makes absolutely no sense to say that because there are some folks out there who are genuinely misclassified, we should eliminate the rights of tens of millions of others to choose the working arrangements that they desire.”

In the Senate, Sen. Tim Scott introduced the Employee Rights Act, designed to protect modern workers from this type of anachronistic push from an administration beholden to Big Labor.

Some of those workers, in Fight for Freelancers, are suing the Department of Labor to protect their economic liberty. They’re represented by the Pacific Legal Foundation, which notes “ordinary citizens do not know how to structure their relationships to avoid liability under federal law, giving the government a sword of Damocles it can bring down on the heads of businesses it doesn’t like.”

Yet another perk of Bidenomics.

Mary Katharine Ham is a journalist, author, Georgia Bulldog, and host of her own light-hearted podcast, “Getting Hammered.” She lives in Virginia with her husband, four kids, and a very energetic Belgian Mal, and serves on the board of the Travis Manion Foundation.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/31/2024 – 12:35

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Biden Finally Remembers To Visit East Palestine, One Year After Toxic Train Derailment

Biden Finally Remembers To Visit East Palestine, One Year After Toxic Train Derailment

Recall nearly one year ago, the mayor of East Palestine, Ohio, ripped President Biden a new one for traveling halfway across the world to Ukraine, where he pledged half a billion dollars to a foreign government, even as a chemical fallout from a train derailment battered residents in the small Ohio town. 

Shortly after the train derailment, while animals were dying and people were getting sick from the toxic fumes, millions of Americans asked: Where was Biden? 

Well… 

The people of East Palestine were not pleased with the president for ignoring them:

However, just weeks after the incident, former President Trump arrived in East Palestine, where he told residents: “You’re not forgotten.” 

Now, almost one year later, Biden’s polling numbers are near an all-time low as Bidenomics fails, the invasion on the southern border worsens, and the administration’s foreign policy is seen as a disaster as it appears Ukraine is not winning the war against Russia and a major conflict looms in the Middle East. The 80-something-year-old president finally remembered about East Palestine.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the White House plans to send the president to East Palestine for the first time. 

The White House said the purpose of the visit would be for the president to “asses the progress that his Administration has helped deliver in coordination with state and local leaders to protect the community and hold Norfolk Southern accountable.” 

In the last year, EPA Administrator Michael Regan and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg visited and spoke with local leaders and community members. 

Meanwhile, shortly after the incident, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine asked the Biden administration to issue a disaster declaration as 116,000 gallons of the carcinogen vinyl chloride exploded into the air after five tank cars derailed. Still, the president has yet to do so. 

Never forget how the Biden administration prioritized funneling money into Ukraine over their own citizens. This is precisely why Biden’s polling data is terrible. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/31/2024 – 12:15

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Trillions Spent On ‘Climate Change’ Based On Faulty Temperature Data, Climate Experts Say

Trillions Spent On ‘Climate Change’ Based On Faulty Temperature Data, Climate Experts Say

Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

To preserve a “livable planet,” the Earth can’t warm more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the United Nations warns.

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock)

Failure to maintain that level could lead to several catastrophes, including increased droughts and weather-related disasters, more heat-related illnesses and deaths, and less food and more poverty, according to NASA.

To avert the looming tribulations and limit global temperature increases, 194 member states and the European Union in 2016 signed the U.N. Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty with a goal to “substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.”

After the agreement, global spending on climate-related projects increased exponentially.

In 2021 and 2022, the world’s taxpayers spent, on average, $1.3 trillion on such projects each year, according to the nonprofit advisory group Climate Policy Initiative.

That’s more than double the spending rate in 2019 and 2020, which came in at $653 billion per year, and it’s significantly up from the $364 billion per year in 2011 and 2012, the report found.

Despite the money pouring in, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that 2023 was the hottest year on record.

NOAA’s climate monitoring stations found that the Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2023 was 1.35 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

Not only was 2023 the warmest year in NOAA’s 174-year climate record—it was the warmest by far,” said Sarah Kapnick, NOAA’s chief scientist.

“A warming planet means we need to be prepared for the impacts of climate change that are happening here and now, like extreme weather events that become both more frequent and severe.”

But a growing chorus of climate scientists are saying the temperature readings are faulty and that the trillions of dollars pouring in are based on a problem that doesn’t exist.

More than 90 percent of NOAA’s temperature monitoring stations have a heat bias, according to Anthony Watts, a meteorologist, senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute, author of climate website Watts Up With That, and director of a study that examined NOAA’s climate stations.

“And with that large of a number, over 90 percent, the methods that NOAA employs to try to reduce this don’t work because the bias is so overwhelming,” Mr. Watts told The Epoch Times.

“The few stations that are left that are not biased because they are, for example, outside of town in a field and are an agricultural research station that’s been around for 100 years … their data gets completely swamped by the much larger set of biased data. There’s no way you can adjust that out.”

A meteorologist monitors weather in NOAA’s center for weather and climate prediction in Riverdale, Md., on July 2, 2013. (Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

Meteorologist Roy Spencer agreed.

“The surface thermometer data still have spurious warming effects due to the urban heat island, which increases over time,” Mr. Spencer said.

He is the principal research scientist at the University of Alabama, the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on NASA’s Aqua satellite, and the recipient of NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for his work with satellite-based temperature monitoring.

Mr. Spencer also said computerized climate models used to drive changes in energy policy are even more faulty.

Lt. Col. John Shewchuk, a certified consulting meteorologist, said the problems with temperature readings go beyond heat bias. The retired lieutenant colonel was an advanced weather officer in the Air Force.

“After seeing many reports about NOAA’s adjustments to the USHCN [U.S. Historical Climatology Network] temperature data, I decided to download and analyze the data myself,” Lt. Col. Shewchuk told The Epoch Times.

“I was able to confirm what others have found. It is obvious that, overall, the past temperatures were cooled while the present temperatures were warmed.”

He contends that NOAA and NASA have adjusted historical temperature data in such a way as to make the past appear colder and, by so doing, make the current warming trend more pronounced.

Faulty Temperature Readings

The urban heat island effect causes higher temperatures in areas where there are more buildings, roads, and other forms of infrastructure that absorb and then radiate the sun’s heat, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

The agency estimates that “daytime temperatures in urban areas are 1–7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than temperatures in outlying areas, and nighttime temperatures are about 2–5 degrees Fahrenheit higher.”

Consequently, NOAA requires all its climate observation stations to be located at least 100 feet away from elements such as concrete, asphalt, and buildings.

Students of the University of Illinois carry a weather station during a NOAA education day on tornadoes, in Memphis on Feb. 8, 2023. (Seth Herald/AFP via Getty Images)

However, in March 2009, Mr. Watts released a report that shows that 89 percent of NOAA’s stations had heat bias issues due to being located within 100 feet of those elements, and many were located by airport runways.

“We found stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat,” Mr. Watts said.

We found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants, where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas.”

The report concluded that the U.S. temperature record was unreliable, and because it was considered “the best in the world,” global temperature databases were also “compromised and unreliable.”

Following the report, the U.S. Office of Inspector General (OIG) and the Government Accountability Office confirmed Mr. Watt’s findings and stated that NOAA was taking steps to address the issues.

“NOAA acknowledges that there are problems with the USHCN data due to biases introduced by such means as undocumented site relocation, poor siting, or instrument changes,” the OIG report reads.

“All of the experts thought that an improved, modernized climate reporting system is necessary to eliminate the need for data adjustments.”

Despite the assurances, Mr. Watts had doubts about NOAA addressing the issues and in April 2022 and May 2022, he and his team revisited many of the same temperature stations they had observed in 2009.

He published his findings in a new study on July 27, 2022. It found that even more, approximately 96 percent, of NOAA’s temperature stations still failed to meet its own standards.

“There are two main biases in the surface temperature network for the United States, and most likely the world, that I have identified,” Mr. Watts said.

The biggest bias is the urban heat island effect. What happens is that because heat is retained by the surfaces and released into the air at night, the night’s low temperature is not as low as it could be if the thermometer were outside of town and in a field.”

Global average surface temperatures have been variable, but show an increasing trend in recent decades. (Illustration by The Epoch Times)

Over the years, he said, more and more infrastructure has been built up around the thermometer locations, and at night, the asphalt and concrete release the absorbed heat and push up the temperature.

“You can look at any set of climate data, no matter who produces it, and you can see this effect. The low temperatures are trending upward much faster, and the high temperatures are virtually unchanged. But it’s the average temperature that’s being used to track climate change,” Mr. Watts said.

He said that even though both NOAA and NASA claim that they can adjust their data to account for the urban heat island effect, the bias is impossible to overcome because the problem impacts 96 percent of surface stations.

He said the few thermometers located at climate stations not experiencing a heat bias show half the rate of warming currently being reported.

Transient Temperature

The second primary bias that Mr. Watts identified is the transient temperature readings, which are short-term temperature changes that can give a false reading.

NOAA started switching out their mercury thermometers in the mid-to-late 1980s, according to Mr. Watts.

Read the rest here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/31/2024 – 11:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/ue1G0D9 Tyler Durden

‘Soft’ Survey Data Collapse Continues With Chicago PMI Plunge

‘Soft’ Survey Data Collapse Continues With Chicago PMI Plunge

The trend for ‘soft’ survey data is very much not the friend of the ‘soft-landing’ or ‘goldilocks’ narrative peddlers as it slumps from extreme optimism to disappointed pessimism…

Source: Bloomberg

And today saw more of the same as the Chicago MNI tumbled further off the ‘weird’ spike in November, back into contraction…

Under the hood was ugly:

  • New orders fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

  • Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

  • Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

  • Production fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction

  • Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

Worse still, the prices paid index component continued to rise.

Slower growth, rising prices, and survey-based hope fading fast – not exactly ‘election-winning’ headlines.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/31/2024 – 11:45

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Companies Turn To AI Because Real Intelligence Is Hard To Find

Companies Turn To AI Because Real Intelligence Is Hard To Find

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Today, UPS announced it will use Artificial Intelligence (AI) to reduce office workers. It Joins Google, Amazon, and others in the shift. If only we could do the same for government.

UPS to Cut 12,000 Jobs

The Wall Street Journal reports UPS to Cut 12,000 Jobs and Mandate Return to Offices Five Days a Week

United Parcel Service UPS said it plans to shed about 12,000 jobs this year and mandated staff work from offices five days a week starting March 4. The cuts are primarily targeted at management staff as well as contract workers, UPS executives said Tuesday, adding that those jobs aren’t likely to return even when parcel volumes rebound. The company has around 85,000 workers in management.

Chief Executive Carol Tomé said that the cuts are part of efforts to change how UPS works. That initiative includes using artificial intelligence and other new technologies to boost its operations, she said.

UPS, based in Atlanta, is also joining a number of companies that want employees to work from offices every weekday. The company faced contentious labor negotiations last year in which union officials said that drivers and warehouse staff believed it was unfair that office staffers could work from home during the Covid-19 pandemic and they couldn’t.

Reflections on Unfairness

The drivers say it is unfair for office workers to work at home but they can’t.

I have the fair solution: Let everyone work from home provided they can still meet their job requirements.

Q: What’s the work from home requirement really about?
A: Encouraging workers to quit voluntarily.

Google Warns of Further Layoffs

Please note Google CEO’s Internal Memo Warns of Further Layoffs Ahead

Google CEO Sundar Pichai warned employees to expect additional layoffs in the months to come as the tech giant reorients itself toward artificial intelligence “and beyond.”

Duolingo Shifts Toward AI

Also note, Duolingo Lays Off Staff in Shifts Toward AI.

Duolingo laid off around 10% of its contract workers, the company told CNN Tuesday, as the educational technology app moves to rely more heavily on artificial intelligence.

While not all layoffs were due to the technology, the language learning company let go of some contractors at the end of 2023 to make room for AI-related changes in how content is generated and shared.

It has been proactive in adding AI to its platform, creating a new subscription tier dubbed “Duolingo Max” in March that incorporates OpenAI’s advanced language model GPT-4 to add AI-powered features that include having full conversations with a chatbot to practice skills and getting AI-generated explanations about why an answer is right or wrong.

Generative AI is accelerating our work by helping us create new content dramatically faster,” CEO Luis von Ahn wrote in a November shareholder letter.

Artificial Intelligence Ads and Palm Reading

Amazon is at the forefront of Generative Artificial Intelligence.

“Generative AI helps advertisers make their ads more engaging and visually rich, and delivers a better advertising experience for customers.”

Using the Amazon Ad Console, advertisers simply select their product and click “Generate.” In just seconds, the tool delivers a series of lifestyle and brand-themed images.

Pay with Your Palm

No wallet? No problem. Amazon used generative AI to develop Amazon One, a fast and convenient contactless identity service that enables customers to use their palm to make payments, verify their ages, or enter locations.

Amazon One delivers an accuracy rate of 99.9999%, which exceeds the accuracy of other biometric alternatives—it’s even more accurate than scanning two irises. You can use Amazon One at all of the more than 500 Whole Foods Market stores in the U.S. and at over 100 customer locations across the country, including Crunch Fitness, Hudson stores at airports, and multiple stadiums and entertainment venues.

Predict the Blitz

Defensive Alerts is the newest AI-enhanced feature from Thursday Night Football. The feature, which airs during TNF’s weekly alternate stream, Prime Vision with Next Gen Stats, tracks defensive players’ movements before the snap and highlights in real time the “players of interest” who are likely to rush the quarterback.

Artificial Intelligence and Beyond

I really didn’t write anything above. Instead, a generative AI robot read my mind. All I had to do was think, not say, “Hello AI, write about UPS layoffs from an angle no one else has covered.”

Poof that was it. Alexa read my mind and generated this post.

Real Intelligence is Hard to Find

There is a desperate need for artificial intelligence in government because a search for real intelligence turns up empty.

For example, Biden Lets Tik-Tok Set US Energy Policy, US Loses, Russia Wins

Following demands by the TikTok lobby, Biden will pause LNG exports. The ironic winners are coal and Russia. The losers are the US and the environment.

And here’s a real doozie. Biden’s Trojan Horse Immigration Deal Would Allow Another 1.8 Million Migrants

Republicans actually bargained for that compromise.

Business is not immune either as noted in Dealers Beg GM for Hybrid Vehicles, Can GM Do Anything Right?

Please send in the AI ASAP.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/31/2024 – 11:25

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He Was Charged With Human Trafficking for Driving His Wife to Work


Asian massage parlor sign | BSIP/Newscom

A Utah man is suing after being implicated in a human trafficking ring for driving his wife to and from her job at Asian massage businesses in Utah County. Police raided the places in early 2021 and arrested Joseph Ferreri, his wife Juying Wang, and several other women associated with the businesses where Wang worked.

A police document justifying Ferreri’s arrest relies heavily on generalizations about Asian massage businesses and race-based stereotypes. It’s also peppered with misrepresentations—like describing Wang as a “girl” even though she’s in her 50s and two years older than Ferreri. “The local officer in charge of the ‘investigation'”—American Fork Police Officer Shawn Lott—”embellished, omitted, and made up facts to paint Joe Ferreri as an international sex trafficker,” Ferreri’s lawsuit against Lott and the city alleges, claiming that “the sole basis for targeting Joe was the race/ethnicity of his wife and her occupation.”

Ferreri’s situation isn’t some isolated incident. Police and federal agents frequently target Asian massage businesses for investigations and raids, garnering ample news coverage about “sex trafficking” rings when there’s little to support these claims and silence when the big talk about busting up traffickers doesn’t pan out.

In this case, all charges against Ferreri, Wang, and the other women were eventually dropped. But by then, the case had negatively impacted Ferreri’s life in multiple ways. His name and picture were published in news outlets that described him as part of a human trafficking ring. He and his wife were temporarily barred from seeing each other. He lost his job, and with it any chance of a pension he was more than halfway to qualifying for. The only work Ferreri could find following the arrest was a temp gig in a coal mine, his complaint says.

“Most, if not all, Asian massage businesses operate the same”

The investigation that kicked this all off started in September 2020, when American Fork police received an anonymous online tip about prostitution taking place at Sunflower Massage. The tipster told cops that masseuses would touch customers “inappropriately” and “if you do not complain she will continue and even make offers for more,” according to Lott’s Affidavits of Probable Cause for arresting Ferreri and Wang.

“Most, if not all, Asian massage businesses operate the same,” Lott asserts confidently in the affidavits.

The arrest documents are filled with generalizations like this. Lott claims that Asian women fall easily into human trafficking because “family honor” is so important to them and traffickers threaten to tell their families about the “voluntary prostitution” they’re engaged in. These women are often “forced to live in small closets or rooms within the massage business premise and given only minimal means for survival,” he writes. “It is not uncommon for trafficked girls to be dropped off and picked up by someone other than the business owner” in an attempt “to thwart law enforcement investigation.”

Note that none of this “evidence” involves actual acts uncovered at Sunflower Massage and its sister businesses. Rather, they are generalizations—supposedly based on Lott’s “training and experience.”

Lott writes that many applications for Asian massage businesses “have ownership names using out of state driver’s licenses and addresses, typically tied to the southern California area”—even though none of the women in this case had ties to southern California—and tries to make the mere use of Chinese names sound suspect, noting that “the names listed as owners on the [massage business] applications are often difficult to understand, as Chinese names start with the last name first.”

Lott also makes repeated reference to “girls” in the arrest documents, even though the females involved in this case were all adult women.

“Lott’s differential treatment of, and/or targeting of, ‘Asian’ or ‘Chinese’ subjects, permeates” the arrest documents, Ferreri’s complaint argues. This targeting was “patently unconstitutional” and “based on unsupported stereotypes and complaints about ‘Asian massage parlors’ in general, with no reference to the particular businesses at issue.”

Ferreri also alleges that the affidavit descriptions of his marriage were inaccurate, prejudicial, and/or incomplete in a way designed to arouse suspicion. For instance, the affidavit says, without any further explanation, that “Joseph has been known to travel for days at a time to Selina Utah,” even though Ferreri allegedly told police that his brother lived there and he would sometimes go spend weekends with him. Lott points out that Ferreri and Wang met “at a massage parlor where she provided him a sexual act in return for money,” even though this isn’t really relevant to the alleged criminal wrongdoing. And Lott suggests that “the marriage may not be legitimate,” even though “a short telephone call to a vital records office in Texas would have confirmed the marriage,” according to Ferreri’s complaint.

“Male customers [say] there are ‘happy endings'”

Joining forces with other local police departments, American Fork Police sent cops to quiz customers coming out of the massage businesses they were investigating. “On all of these stops the male customers have all acknowledge [sic] there are ‘happy endings’ offered to customers,” writes Lott in his affidavit for Ferreri’s arrest.

The police departments started sending undercover cops to get massages at Sunflower and associated massage businesses (Relax Wood and Small Rainbow, which had the same owner as Sunflower, and a place called Magic Massage). Masseuses at these business allegedly offered sexual extras to the undercover cops on multiple occasions. (The officers allegedly declined.) Police also staked out the businesses and followed the women to and from work.

They honed in on Ferreri after a “concerned citizen” told them that “an older white male” had “pick[ed] up a Chinese girl” from Relax Wood, per Lott’s description. The “girl” in question was Wang, who was born in 1964 and 56 years old at the time.

In February 2021, police raided the massage businesses and arrested Ferreri and five women, including Wang. Ferreri was booked on charges of aiding prostitution (a misdemeanor) and a pattern of unlawful activity (a felony). He would eventually be charged with human trafficking, money laundering, and aggravated exploitation of prostitution as well, according to his lawsuit.

Wang was charged with two counts of prostitution—based on alleged offers of sexual activity to undercover officers on two occasions—and with engaging in a pattern of unlawful activity.

(The “pattern of unlawful activity” charge—a felony—provides a good example of how cops get creative with charges to crack down harshly on sex workers. Prostitution is only a misdemeanor offense, but offering to engage in prostitution twice could be construed as a “pattern” and bring on a more severe charge.)

Lott requested that Wang and the other arrested women be held without bail. Yes, we’re looking at authorities trying to keep a woman locked up for who knows how long pre-trial because she may have dared to touch some body parts she wasn’t allowed to touch in the course of being paid to touch some body parts she was allowed to touch.

“Humiliation, stress, [and] untreated medical conditions”

The charges against Ferreri were dropped nine months later, a day before a scheduled hearing where cops would have had to present evidence for them in court. The charges against the other defendants were dropped in January 2022. There was no deluge of news coverage for either development, as there had been about the arrests.

Ferreri filed a complaint against Lott and American Fork last August and, earlier this month, Magistrate Judge Jared C. Bennett set a schedule for the case. (Various documents, discovery, and motions aren’t due until August through December of this year, so it could be quite a while yet before we see any resolution here.) He accuses the city and Lott of violating his rights to due process and equal protection, as well as disregarding and penalizing him for his request for a lawyer.

“Lott targeted Joe based solely on Joe’s association with a Chinese woman who worked at a licensed massage business,” Ferreri’s complaint posits. “Joe’s observed conduct was no different from other spouses who share one car.”

Ferreri seeks a declaration that his rights were violated, along with “a judgment awarding [him] interest on economic losses to the extent permitted by law” plus compensation for “emotional distress and other personal injury” and for his litigation expenses.

Following his arrest, “friends saw him on the news. Strangers who recognized him in the small town where he lived gave him disgusted looks and humiliating distance,” states the complaint. “He was ostracized in the small town where he lived” and Wang and him temporarily separated because of “the strain of the prosecution.”

Ferreri was fired from his job with the Utah Department of Corrections, where he had “had accrued approximately 13 years toward a 20-year pension” and had not previously “been subject to discipline or any other indication of dissatisfaction with his job performance.” After the charges were dropped, Ferreri tried to get rehired by the Department of Corrections but could not. “After his termination and highly publicized accusations of being an international sex trafficker, the only job that Joe could get was at a coal mine through a temp agency,” his complaint states.

Without health insurance from his job, he incurred high medical bills when he subsequently suffered myriad medical issues, including a heart attack. He also had to”hire a lawyer to defend the charges and the government’s request that his assets be seized” and “to retain the services of an experienced civil rights attorney to vindicate his constitutional rights.” Ultimately, the arrest led to negative financial consequences as well as “humiliation, stress, [and] untreated medical conditions,” Ferreri alleges.

Qualified Immunity Strikes Again?

While investigations like the one that netted Ferreri may not be all that rare, it is relatively rare to see people fighting back. Most of the times when it occurs, it’s male customers or associates of the massage parlors—not the workers or managers or owners there—who do.

This isn’t a surprise: they are generally much better positioned to make a stink than immigrant sex workers who may fear deportation, face language barriers, be unclear about how the U.S. legal system works, etc. And the fact that women involved in these stings are so ill-positioned to fight back hints at why this sort of thing is allowed to continue happening, again and again.

Cops face little recourse, even when their cases totally fall apart and were based on little more than writing some sort of Asian sex-slave fanfic.

They’re also aided by things like the doctrine of qualified immunity, which gives police broad authority to get away with things done in the name of duty.

In a response filed in December, Lott and the city of American Fork invoked qualified immunity as part of their defense. They also denied all allegations against them and suggested that Ferreri’s “injuries or damages, if any, were caused by his own actions, conduct, or failures to act.”

Guilt by Association

Reading Ferreri’s complaint, I wondered if his team was selectively picking from the probable cause affidavit. Surely, there must have been more to it than Ferreri giving his wife and her colleague rides and some generalized hoo-ha about Asian women?

Not really. The whole thing uses a guilt-by-association approach: sometimes Asian massage businesses do bad things, and these were Asian massage businesses, so—checkmate!

In an affidavit related to one of the arrested women, there is mention of one “victim.” But there’s nothing linking her to Ferreri. Besides, evidence provided for her victimization is iffy—made especially so by the fact that all charges against all of the arrested women were dropped.

This is common with massage parlor investigations, raids, and arrests. Authorities justify their actions with generalized “facts” about Asian massage businesses or Asian culture—often relying on racist or xenophobic tropes and classist assumptions—and make vague nods to victims that we never hear about again. Things like living together, carpooling, or sleeping in a room at one’s business or place of employment get cast not as reasonable measures for people on a budget or new to this country but as clearly the work of a nefarious trafficking ring.

Officials say it’s all about helping the women who work at these places while simultaneously arresting the workers for things like prostitution or unlicensed massage and having police seize their assets. (See, for instance, the case in Florida involving Robert Kraft, the “sex trafficking ring” that Sen. Josh Hawley claimed to have broken up, or Homeland Security’s “Operation Asian Touch.”)

It’s the perfect storm of anti-immigrant sentiments, fear of China, and moral panic surrounding sex work and sex trafficking.

Today’s Image

Asbury Park, 2018 | “Tangle of the Sea” mural by Logan Hicks (ENB/Reason)

The post He Was Charged With Human Trafficking for Driving His Wife to Work appeared first on Reason.com.

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David Stockman on Why Trump Can’t Fix the Debt: ‘This Guy Is Part of the Swamp’


David Stockman in front of a dollar bill | Illustration: Lex Villena

As Ronald Reagan’s first budget director, former Michigan congressman David Stockman led the charge to cut the size, scope, and spending of the federal government in the early 1980s. He made enemies among Democrats by pushing hard for cuts to welfare programs—and he ultimately made enemies among his fellow Republicans by pushing equally hard to slash defense spending. His memoir of the era, The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed, is a legendary account of how libertarian principles got sacrificed on the altar of political expediency.

Stockman’s new book is Trump’s War on Capitalism, and it takes a blowtorch to the former president’s time in office. “When it comes to what the GOP’s core mission should be…standing up for the free markets, fiscal rectitude, sound money, personal liberty, and small government at home and non-intervention abroad,” he writes, “Donald Trump has overwhelmingly come down on the wrong side of the issues.”

At a Reason Speakeasy event in New York City, Reason‘s Nick Gillespie talked with Stockman about his political journey from being a member of Students for a Democratic Society who protested the Vietnam War to being one of Reagan’s main advisers to his denunciation of Donald Trump and his hope that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy helps throw the 2024 election into the House of Representatives.

Stockman also explains how Trump led the charge on COVID lockdowns, got rolled by Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, and why his nativist views on immigration are inimical both to freedom and economic growth.

Watch the full video here and find a condensed transcript below.

Nick Gillespie: This is The Reason Interview with Nick Gillespie. Thanks so much for coming out. Our guest tonight is David Stockman. He is a former congressman, a two-termer from Michigan, south of Grand Rapids. Probably best known in the public eye for being Ronald Reagan’s first budget director who made the naive, idealistic, and absolutely wonderful mistake of believing that Ronald Reagan wanted to cut the size, scope, and spending of government across the board. He wanted to cut the welfare-warfare state, right?

David Stockman: Well, the welfare part.

Gillespie: And this is before we get into his fantastic book, a real stinging critique of Donald Trump, Trump’s War on Capitalism. In preparing for this, you as budget director, you came in and you had to cut $40 billion from a $700 billion budget in 1981. To give you a sense of how quaint that is, the defense budget now is about $700 billion. I think we may be approaching that just in interest on the debt. But you were scrounging around to find $40 billion to cut. What happened? 

Stockman: Well, I think the problem was Ronald Reagan believed in small government profoundly, except for the Pentagon side of the Potomac River. And he was really a hawk, a real, unreformed, unrequited Cold War hawk. The defense budget was about $140 billion when we got there. By the time he left, it was $350 billion, a massive increase on the theory that the Soviet Union was developing first-strike capability. None of that was true. That was the origination of the whole neocon view of the world. That’s where all these characters originally got their start in the process. And so, by the time we got to 1988, the defense budget had eaten up and then some of all the domestic cuts, and the Republicans who were willing to stand up for domestic spending cuts and title reforms and so forth were so demoralized by seeing these massive increases year after year for the Pentagon that they basically threw in the towel, and the whole thing was kind of a wipeout. 

If you want to get the numbers on it, just to kind of cap off the point, when Jimmy Carter left the White House after all those years of big spending by the Democrats, first Carter and then before him, of course, [Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ)], and guns and butter and all the rest, the domestic non-defense budget was 15.4 percent of [gross domestic product (GDP)]. So way up, historically. When Reagan left, it was 15.3 percent. So he made a 0.1 percent difference. And that’s about all we got. 

Gillespie: I would recommend everybody read, The Triumph of Politics, David’s memoir of his time. The subtitle is Why the Reagan Revolution Failed and—if you’re interested in political economy as well as gossip—it’s really one of the great memoirs. 

But the book we’re talking about tonight is Trump’s War on Capitalism. The title says it so well there isn’t even a subtitle. Why don’t you start by telling us what was Trump’s war on capitalism? He is a businessman. He talked about having the greatest, the biggest, the best economy ever when he was president. What’s the essence of Trump’s war on capitalism?

Stockman: Well, the question I think you’re getting at is, why did I write it? And the answer is I had already written three books trying to expose the fact that Donald Trump isn’t remotely an economic conservative; he doesn’t believe in small government. I don’t think he believes in free markets. And certainly he had no affinity whatsoever for sound money or fiscal rectitude. So in 2016, I wrote a book called Trumped! to warn people. In 2018, I wrote another book called Peak Trump to say I was right. In 2020, I wrote a third book called Dump Trump. Well, the fourth time would be the charm, right? And the book came out five days before the Iowa primaries. It was too late. But there is a bigger point to it, and that is: We’re never going to get the kind of government, I think, that all of us believe in—the kind of society, the kind of liberty, the kind of economic prosperity, the kind of market capitalism and so forth. Unless there is an honest contest in the process of democratic governance in the United States between one party that more or less lines up as the government party, the party of state, the party of the political class, the bureaucratic class, the apparatchiks in Washington. And there’s a second party that represents the hinterlands and all of the impulses that go with us, to leave us alone, to tax us less, to spend less, to intervene less, to get out of our way, to allow the private society and economy to breathe. So we really need a government party contesting with an anti-government party. 

The problem is, today we have a uni-party in terms of the primary leadership in the Republican Party in Washington. When I look at [Mitch] McConnell, who’s been there 55 years on the government payroll, I can’t really tell any difference between him and our senator from New York, the leader on the Democratic side. And so, what I think the great danger is that the problems in the United States today in terms of our position in the world—which is a disaster in terms of our public debt but we can get into a lot of those numbers in a minute—and in terms of a rogue central bank that is totally out of control is that, if we don’t address any of that, then [we will have continued rule of the uni-party], and we can’t have [that]. We need to break it up. But Donald Trump, despite all of his rhetoric and all of his loud boasting about draining the swamp and being the outsider and coming in to clean up the whole thing, is just as much a statist when it comes to all the key issues. And we go through them in the book, as well as most of the mainstream politicians in Washington. 

So the last thing we need is a fight in 2024 between Trump and Biden. It’s pointless. It’s useless. We need to have a clean break in the Republican Party, blow it up if we have to, and not allow the second party in our democracy to be Trumpified. Because if it’s Trumpified, then we get more of what we had during the four years that he was there. I’ve got a lot of data on that, but let me just cap it here with one, and then we can go into some of the details. When Trump was sworn in, the public debt was $20 trillion already, and it had been swelling rapidly for several decades. When he left, it was close to $28 trillion. So let’s just call it $8 trillion in four years. Now, someone might ask later, numbers of this magnitude are almost hard to grasp, to understand, but here’s how to understand: The first $8 trillion, equivalent to the $8 trillion that Trump racked up in four years, had taken from the first day of the Republic to 2005 to approve. That is, the first 43 presidents in 216 years generated $8 trillion in public debt. Trump replicated that in four years, not only because of huge tax cuts that he didn’t try to offset with spending but because of the whole disaster of the pandemic, the COVID, the lockdowns, and $6.5 trillion worth of bailout and relief and free stuff that came out of the effort to try to tell people, “Yeah, we’re sending everybody home. And don’t worry, we’ll send you money too.” So, that’s the heart of the matter. 

Anybody that can generate $8 trillion in four years of additional public debt, equal to the first 43 presidents—and there were some real rascals, obviously, and bad guys in that lineup, including [Franklin D. Roosevelt] and LBJ and a lot of others in between—that’s the kind of number that grasps you by the collar and tells you, this guy is part of the swamp. He’s not part of the solution. 

Gillespie: What is wrong with running up massive debt?

Stockman: Someone asked me that in 1970 when I first went to work on Capitol Hill. I ran for Congress in 1976 against the outgoing [Gerald] Ford deficits, which were large. And the question was raised, and here we are. And it’s now $34 trillion and rising and so, maybe it’s no problem after all. 

No, the answer is there are two ways to finance the deficit, both of them bad. The first way is the honest way: You finance it in the bond pits by borrowing out of the private savings stream. The effect of that, though, everybody understood when I was first on Capitol Hill in the ’70s and into the early ’80s, is that when you finance the public debt deficits the honest way, it causes crowding out. It forces up interest rates higher and higher, because whatever the given supply of savings is at the moment. Uncle Sam is the sheriff. His elbows get first call on the money. Crowding out happens. Rates go up. That’s where we got the famous bond vigilantes and so forth. And that’s why, actually, when we were trying to cut taxes in the early ’70s, what I called the College of Cardinals—the established, seasoned Republican leaders in the House: Bob Dole, Sen. [Pete] Domenici, Howard Baker, who was the Senate leader—they said, “No, we’ve got to be careful here, because if we finance all of these tax cuts with red ink and borrowing, we’re going to crowd out private investment. We’re about to hear from our car dealers who can’t finance their lot. We’re going to hear from our home builders whose customers can’t get mortgages,” and so on. So the point is, if you finance it the honest way, you cause crowding out, you get an early reaction economically. You basically suppress productive investment and you shift society’s resources to “government investment”—if you think that’s a word, and I don’t. I think it’s an oxymoron. 

The honest way of financing the deficits, which by the way, had to be done in the late ’70s and early ’80s because Paul Volcker was sitting in the chair at the Fed, and he was not about to monetize the debt. As a result, we had an environment in which the political reaction function, the feedback, was almost instantaneous. Run big deficits, drive up interest rates in the bond pits. Those spread to the banking sector. Those spread to the hometown car dealers and homebuilders and SNL bankers and just regular consumers. And it causes a political reaction that tends to create a constituency in the political system in Congress for reining in the deficit. That’s the first way. 

The second way is to issue all kinds of public paper and have the central bank buy it. And that’s called monetization. And that’s exactly what we’ve been doing ever since the late ’70s or late ’80s, effectively after Volcker left. And let me just give you some idea of how much has been monetized. When [Alan] Greenspan took over, and you remember, this is 1987, he was allegedly at one time a great believer in the gold standard and an Ayn Rand disciple and other things. He sort of lost his economic rigidities. He was kind of nerdy. But in any event, the balance sheet of the Fed was $200 billion, and this is 1987. So it has something like 70 years of the Fed’s existence. It had taken 70 years to get to $200 billion. And I’m going to talk a lot about the balance sheet of the Fed and people say, “What does that mean? Why is that such a big deal?” The balance sheet of the Fed is simply the track record of how much cumulative money they seized out of thin air and printed, fiat credit, over time. So we had $200 billion. 

To cut this story short, until they decided that inflation was out of control about a year ago and began to pull back, the balance sheet of the Fed had reached $9 trillion. Now, this is in a lifetime. I am looking out here, I can see probably quite a few people that might have been around in 1987. You went from $200 billion to that $9 trillion. That’s 45 times growth in that period of time—several decades—at a point when the GDP was only increasing by 5x.

So when the money printed by the Fed goes up 45 times and the size of the economy goes up five times, you are way, way, way, out of kilter, out of skew. And it is that massive, continuous money printing which monetized all of the debt being created by a reckless Congress and White House that allowed us to continue to run these huge budget deficits year after year. But eventually it catches up with you as well. 

There’s this famous thing, I think it’s Hemingway’s book where he’s asked, “How did you go bankrupt?” And the answer was, “Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.” What I’m trying to get at here is the honest way to finance the deficit will cause problems very quickly. What we’re doing is the slow way, but we’ve created massive financial bubbles. Massive misallocation of resources, tremendous amounts of speculation that should never happen in a healthy economy and wouldn’t happen. And it’s permitted this to go on much longer than would have been the case if we had done it the honest way. But, now we’re at the point where I think the chickens are coming home to roost. Even the Fed has stopped printing money because inflation was out of control.

Gillespie: So to bring it back to Trump, Trump made a big deal about caring about the forgotten man, talking about Main Street vs. Wall Street, all of that. Your book makes the case that whatever he’s saying, he’s actually helping Wall Street or the financial sector far more than production sectors and service sectors of the economy. Talk a little bit about his tariffs and his immigration policy. He’s trying to help small producers, saying we’re going to keep China from dumping cheap products here so you can have your industry here. Why is that wrong?

Stockman: The big irony about Trump is that he was the outsider who campaigned against the status quo, the establishment, the deep state, and the political class. And that all made for good rhetoric, and it actually resonated with the public. But when you look at what his policy solutions are, they have nothing to do with draining the swamp. Trump’s basic take on why all these people were left high and dry in flyover America and in the Rust Belt, and why we lost millions and millions of jobs, and why manufacturing is going to China and elsewhere is that this was all due to the work of nefarious foreigners. Foreign governments that were cheating and unfair in their trade practices. Immigrants coming across the border in hordes, who were allegedly bloating our welfare state and undermining our economy and undermining our security.

Gillespie: That’s always the great thing, right? Immigrants are simultaneously coming here for welfare and then outworking us.  

Stockman: Yeah. But see, the point is if you want to drain the swamp, then you better go to the swamp and change the policies. Ask what has caused all of this disorder, distrust, and failure. That would have pointed exactly to the Federal Reserve because it’s been pro-inflation since the ’70s. And then it made inflation official with its 2 percent target. And it was that pro-inflation policy decade after decade that priced out the world market. It’s that simple. 

I look at one statistic that I’ve got in the book that looks at the cumulative increase in unit labor costs over the decades. And that’s important because remember what unit labor costs are: It’s when wage cost increases—benefits and pay—[while productivity remains the same or decreases]. Because if you have wage increases and you have equal productivity gains, then the cost of production doesn’t change. And a business can go on and expand and thrive without raising the prices. But if wages are increasing dramatically, more rapidly than productivity, because you have a pro-inflation policy being run by the central bank, then over time, unit labor costs get totally out of control. And here’s a startling number: From 1970 when we basically flushed sound money down the drain at Camp David—in 1971, actually, [Richard] Nixon [was president]—from then until the present, unit labor costs in the United States have risen 275 percent. And as a result of that, we have priced ourselves out of the services market because all of the services have gone to India and other low-wage countries, to say nothing of the merchandise goods market that has gone to Mexico and China and so forth. 

I have one little thing in the book that gives a pretty good example. IBM was the great monster, the midway at one point in terms of making the computer hardware, which is the modern economy. But between 1990 and the present, their employment in India has gone from zero to about 180,000, and their employment in the United States has been cut by more than a third. So, that’s on the services side to say nothing of what happened to these massive year-in, year-out, merchandise trade deficits. Why did that happen? It all happened because of the unit labor costs increasing at these rates. It happened because you had a pro-inflation rather than a pro-deflation central bank. And ironically, it happened because Milton Friedman gave Richard Nixon—tricky Dick, as we all fondly call him—some very bad advice. He said, “OK, we’re going to unlink the dollar from its base, from its link to gold. But don’t worry about that, because the free market will take care of exchange rates.” And what that really meant was that if we inflated too much domestically, relative to the rest of the world, our exchange rate would go down. All of a sudden, the imports would cost a lot more, our exports would be less competitive, and there would be a disciplining mechanism, a braking mechanism that would prevent huge increases in the trade deficit and the offshoring of production. And that’s what Friedman told Nixon. Now, in theory, he was probably right, but in practice, he was utterly wrong, because what happened over the last five decades is all the central banks in the world have engaged in dirty floats. And so there never was a free market.

Gillespie: Could you explain what a dirty float is?

Stockman: A dirty float basically says, rather than let the market clear in terms of the exchange rate between, say, the dollar and the yen, or the dollar and the euro, or the dollar and Mexican peso, the central bank stepped in and tried to peg the exchange rate. They believe if they peg their exchange rates low, it’ll help their export factories. It’ll help jobs. It’ll help prosperity. They can export more to the rest of the world. That’s called mercantilism. And what the Fed has done after 1971 is spread a massive monetary disease in the world called mercantilist monetary policy. I’ve got a lot of examples in the book of why we’ve lost so much production and jobs to Mexico—and to say nothing of China. [This is all] basically because the Fed said it’s OK to manipulate your currency. It’s OK to increase your domestic money supply at huge unsustainable rates because we’re doing the same thing here. And so as we flooded the world with fiat dollars, the Fed’s balance sheet went—as I said, just in that short period of time—from $200 billion to $9 trillion. The rest of the world, these other central banks, but particularly the Asian ones and also the Persian Gulf, oil Petro central banks, bought in dollars hand over fist. But the secret in that whole thing is when they were buying dollars to keep their exchange rate from rising, they were basically selling their own currency to the domestic market. In other words, the Fed was exporting inflation, and the other central banks reciprocated by buying up the dollars and inflating their own money supplies. 

Now, why am I going into all this? Because that meant that what Friedman said [about] the automatic adjustment mechanism of the free market in exchange rates was short-circuited. It was blocked. And so the adjustment never came, and as a result, from 1974 onward, we have not had one year of a trade surplus. And it’s gotten worse and worse. And over that period of time, it was $15 trillion of cumulative trade deficits. And if you even throw in the surplus on services that we have in the world, it’s still $11 trillion over the last 40 years. Is 11 trillion a big number? Well, if you put it in today’s purchasing power, it’s $20 trillion.

Therefore, basically, we have borrowed $20 trillion from the rest of the world to keep this whole game going. So this is how we got into the mess, on trade. And this is why Trump, as I say in the book, had it totally upside down. The problem was, he would tell you, these nefarious evildoers in the U.S. Trade Administration or in the Commerce Department or lobbyists sneaking around the banks of the Potomac that made bad trade deals and gave away the store with all of our competitors. And that’s why we’re in such a big mess. And that if you put a guy who really knows how to negotiate—for instance, not pay his bills, which is one of his negotiating techniques—if you put a tough guy like me in the Oval Office, I’ll negotiate good trade deals. And before you know it, everything is going to be better. Well, he negotiated NAFTA, as you all remember. There was a lot of hoopla about that. Basically, if you look at it, it just got a new name. Nothing changed. And secondly, if you look at what happened to the deficit with Mexico, it doubled— 

Gillespie: And is that a bad thing, though? I mean, he renegotiated NAFTA. We kind of got worse terms on some level, but we got more stuff cheaply. 

Stockman: Well, yes. I think that’s true. But there’s a certain kind of libertarian free market and free trade that ignores the monetary side. There is this point I used to make, and I think half of it’s valid and the other half isn’t. The point we used to make in the ’70s and ’80s was, well, if other countries are stupid enough to fill their harbors with rocks and figuratively stop trade, why should we reciprocate and be as stupid as they are? Therefore, if they want to subsidize their exports like the Chinese or others, more power to them because they’re basically transferring wealth to our consumers; domestic welfare is better off, and so that’s fine. Well, that’s half of the equation. But the other half of the equation is that when you have a net export imbalance of $20 trillion over a period of time, you have exported a huge amount of your production base to the rest of the world. And unless you can keep borrowing at higher and higher rates, that isn’t sustainable as an economic matter first, but as a political matter. 

And this is the point. And you may think it sounds a little flippant, but I don’t think it is. I think that Milton Friedman was the godfather of Donald Trump, because Milton Friedman basically told Nixon, “Sever the link to gold”—I’m the gold standard man, I think you might have noticed that—and [that] we don’t need to worry about the ancient relic or barbarous relic or whatever [John Maynard] Keynes called it, because we have a market—a free market that’ll set the exchange rates right. Well, he was wrong about that. We exported massive amounts of our industrial base. We created a burned-out zone in much of the Rust Belt, the upper Midwest, Pennsylvania; New England was long gone. I was from the auto state of Michigan, and you know that was totally burned out. But where did Trump get elected in 2016? On the margin, he got elected in the Rust Belt precincts of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, in all the places that got left behind because we had an unsustainable set of economics with the rest of the world. And it was caused by the central bank that Friedman was willing to let free. 

Now, of course, Friedman thought that all of the central bankers, that is, the members of the Fed, would be just like him. They would be Milton Friedman clones, and they would be very punctilious about the rate at which they were expanding Fed credit, and he had all kinds of rules of thumb and so forth. But of course, that was a pipe dream. That was naive. People who would get appointed to the Fed are basically there to do the business either of Washington politicians or Wall Street speculators. 

I’m not really trying to trash Milton Friedman because he’s a great hero—in terms of free markets and the understanding of the rudiments of a free society, you can’t beat Milton Friedman. But the problem is he had a view of central banking and a view of the Federal Reserve that I think was totally wrong and that became the fulcrum for all of these things that happened. 

Gillespie: Whatever has been going on in terms of economic growth has been bad for a while, but you talk a lot about TARP—how at the end of the Bush administration and the beginning of the Obama ones, handouts to automakers were locked into place. But could you talk a little bit about how Trump did something similar with COVID? Is part of the problem that these parts of the American economy get wiped out because they’re not allowed to change and adapt because they get various kinds of programs that are designed to help them make it through to the next paycheck?

Stockman: Yeah. That’s kind of the problem of crony capitalism. For anybody that might be interested, I wrote a 640-page book on that whole topic that was released in 2013. But I think the issue that we need to find a way to understand is that everything goes back to central banking. And when the central bank makes it so easy to borrow money, we end up with an economy that when Greenspan left or got there, there was about $10 trillion of total debt on the economy, public and private. And that was less than 200 percent of GDP. Today it’s $96 trillion. In other words, they have kept interest rates so low, they’ve had such deep and long-lasting financial repression that the economy has become a giant [leveraged buyout (LBO)]. And when you do an LBO—I was in the private equity business, so I know—there can be prosperity for a couple of years. But if things don’t work out right, you’re going to have interest payments that begin. 

Gillespie: To bring it back to Trump’s specific policies, he came into office saying he was not only going to stop illegal immigration, but he was going to cut legal immigration in half. What is bad about that? Why is that part of the war on capitalism? 

Stockman: Essentially, it raises a whole issue of supply-side policy. And I was a supply-sider back in the 1980s with Reagan. And then I got run out of the supply side church because I didn’t follow all the precepts exactly. 

The issue that we have today, as to why growth has been so tepid and why living standards have sort of stagnated, why there are so many very alienated people out there in flyover America wanting to get behind Trump—the reason that this has been happening is because we’ve got huge deficiencies on the supply side of our economy in terms of labor and capital investment. You know, the native-born work force is actually shrinking. It peaked in 2015, and it’s shrinking. And that’s because, for whatever reasons, native-born women and families are not having babies. And so our labor force is shrinking, and since historically half of GDP growth has been labor—the other half is productivity—our economy is grinding to a halt because the labor supply is shrinking, unless we allow immigrants who want to work to come here and become part of the work force. 

I got a number that I think is kind of startling when you hear about the flood of immigrants coming in and that we’re being overrun and how America’s being somehow turned upside down. If you go to 1870, we finally got out of the Civil War and all the chaos that generated. There were only 39 million people left in America—north, south, all the states after the union reunited. Over the next 40 years to the eve of World War I, we had 25 million immigrants. So, relative to the population in 1870, the immigrant population in a few decades was two-thirds of the population to begin with. Now, how many immigrants do we have today? We have legal immigrants of about a little over a million. We have a population of 335 million people. So immigration today is less than one-third of 1 percent [of the population], not 66 percent or 60 percent. 

That’s the first point. The second point is we have a totally broken, ridiculous, immigration policy that comes right out of the swamp in Washington, and if Trump really understood what he was saying when he said, “I’m going to drain the swamp,” the first thing you would do would be to change the basis for immigration. To get here, you either have to be a family unification, which is about 400,000 out of the million, or you have to be a Ph.D. or some high-tech skilled worker to get a couple hundred thousand more slots, or, and this is the big or, you have to be a refugee or an asylee. That’s the only way that unskilled workers can get into the United States today, when we desperately need unskilled and low-skilled workers, because our native work force is declining. 

In the last year that the data is available, 2022, only 4,000 green cards were issued under the category of things called E3 and E6, for unskilled workers; 4,000 out of the 1,118,000 legal immigrants that got here, to say nothing of the hordes littered on the border. Now, the hordes on the border, if you look—if you can stand it—at Fox News every night, most of them are pretty strong-back to able-bodied young people, and their families are middle-aged. But it’s an unskilled, low-skilled work force looking for a job and a better economic opportunity. But the policy is equivalent to trying to drive a dump truck through a pinhole. 

In other words, there are millions of people at the border trying to come in. There are only 4,000 slots for unskilled workers, so all of them are at the border, being forced to pretend that they’re asylees, that they’re refugees. And the only way you can become a refugee is to cross the border, break the law, get arrested, and then be put into the queue that takes months and months, in fact, years of determination in a totally clogged up court system in order to get certified that you’re an asylum seeker. And you have to prove, for instance, that if you come from Costa Rica, you’re in endangerment of life and limb if you stay. 

I bring up Costa Rica because I checked the other day, it turns out you can get a ticket from Costa Rica to Kansas City if there were some job openings there for $214 a day. So if we had a guest worker program of that kind that makes so much sense today that would allow people to go to the U.S. consulate in Costa Rica, get a guest worker permit, and be matched up with someone looking to hire people for lawn care work or warehouse work in Kansas City, they could get there for $214. No fuss, no muss. No chaos at the border. No border patrol people chasing around in the middle of the night. And we would open up that little pinhole to the economic rationality that we need to have. 

In other words, [the system can be reformed simply] to make it economics-based rather than asylum-based, which is politics. If you have a guest worker program and people come here and they’re making the payroll and their employer is certified month after month, year after year, after 10 years, I’d say give them citizenship and let them stay. The whole problem would be solved. 

The hordes at the border are millions of people who want to be economic immigrants but are being forced to be political refugees, and they’re creating a mess. And the reason I mentioned the $214 Delta ticket is that to get from Costa Rica to the Rio Grande, you have to pay the coyote $4,000 to $10,000 to get you there, when Delta would be happy to do it for $214, if we were only smart enough to have a rational, economics-based immigration system. But there you go again. Immigration control, the whole byzantine, convoluted control system is statism at its worst. It’s run by the lobbyists in Washington. Google gets everybody they want. They get all the Ph.D.s, they get all the smart young techies coming out of South Korea or Taiwan or wherever else they’re coming from. They take care of their needs. The Fortune 500 takes care of their needs because there are four or five categories for advanced degrees, Ph.D.s, unusual skills. They all get in 3,000 or 4,000 a year. But employers that need to have people working in fast-food joints or in lawn care businesses or in warehouses or in agriculture can’t get anybody here legally. So you get the whole mess that we have today.

Gillespie: So, Trump is awful. I can’t speak for this audience. I know for myself, I didn’t vote for Trump. I don’t expect to vote for Trump. I’m not moving to Canada and I’m not moving to Cuba if he wins or anything like that. But isn’t the alternative as bad or worse? Because it’s going to be Joe Biden.

Stockman: Well, if you have to suffer through another Democratic administration, might as well have a senile guy in the chair, because very little is going to get done. But that’s a little facetious. I think from our point of view in the world that four years is not the end of history, and that if we don’t get a nonstatist or an anti-statist party, reassemble, realign out of the mess of the uni-party that we have today, well then there really is no hope because you continue to do the same old thing over and over again, which [Albert] Einstein said is the perfect definition of insanity. So I say, what we need to do in 2024 is blow up the Republican Party. It needs to be purged. It is a gang of cultural right-wingers, neocon warmongers, and basically career politicians who use the party as a fundraiser. 

Gillespie: Do you still consider yourself a Republican? 

Stockman: Well, I think, no. This party needs to go. 

Gillespie: In the book, you mentioned the drug war is stupid. Can you give us some explanation in 10 seconds?

Stockman: I’ll give you three seconds. The drug war is really goddamn stupid. And again, this is part of the whole Trump shtick. He came down the escalator in 2015 talking about the murders and the rapists and the drug dealers coming across the border. As I lay out in my book quite clearly, if the drug part of it is a problem, deregulate drugs and let the teamsters ship the stuff in and let Philip Morris distribute. Keep it legal. 

Bring it above ground. Make it legal. Take out all the premium profit that basically goes to funding the criminal organizations that are necessitated when the government decrees that a desired product shall be artificially scarce. So, that’s part of all the rhetoric too. I mean, everything you hear about all the drugs coming across, that is a different issue. And we need to separate them out, the economics of immigration vs. the economics of the stupid war on drugs and the drug control laws that we have. People don’t probably remember this—I don’t think any of us could, we haven’t been around long enough—but until 1918, you didn’t have to have a passport to come to America, OK? There were no passports. 

All of this immigration control really began then, and it’s created its own bureaucracy and its own set of politics. So if we got back to sort of economically driven border policy, which was what we had to our great benefit until 1923 when they passed the first Immigration Act,  most of this problem would go away. 

This interview has been condensed and edited for style and clarity.

The post David Stockman on Why Trump Can't Fix the Debt: 'This Guy Is Part of the Swamp' appeared first on Reason.com.

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Here Is The Scariest Chart In Today’s Treasury Refunding Announcement

Here Is The Scariest Chart In Today’s Treasury Refunding Announcement

On Monday, after we got the first part of the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA), in which the Treasury unexpectedly announced a big drop in its borrowing estimates for Q1 (from $816BN to $760BN) coupled with a shockingly low calendar Q2 borrowing estimate of just $202BN (as a reminder we got the second part of the QRA this morning which came in very much as expected)…

… yields tumbled as this was viewed as an aggressively dovish outlook on the future of i) the US fiscal deficit and ii) the debt needed to fund said deficit. Here is another way of visualizing the US historical and projected marketable debt funding needs:

Commenting on this surprise drop in expected borrowing, on Monday we said that the numbers also mean that the Reverse Repo facility will be fully drained by Q2, and we expect that on Wednesday we will learn that the bulk of the reduction in Q1 and Q2 estimates will be due to sharply lower Bill issuance for one simple reason: there is just no more Reverse Repo cash to buy it all.

Boy, were we right: earlier today, in the Treasury’s presentation to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) as part of the Quarterly Refunding, Janet Yellen revealed what the composition of this sharp drop in Q2 funding needs would be. As we expected, it was all bills!

In fact, as the chart below – which we have dubbed the scariest chart in the Treasury’s presentation to TBAC today (link here) – shows, with Bills expected to fund some $442 Billion of the $760BN funding deficit in the Jan-March quarter (the balance of $318BN funded by coupons), in Q2 the Treasury now anticipates a $245BN DECLINE in net Bills outstanding (i.e., not only no incremental Bill funding but a quarter trillion maturity in Bills outstanding). In other words, while we expected a “sharply lower” Bill issuance in Q2, the Treasury is actually expecting a $245BN drawdown in Bills.

But wait, there’s more: because while the market was expecting some pro rata decline in coupon issuance to go with the slide in net Bills (we were not) in Q2 to justify the sharp drop in long-end yields, it was not meant to be. In fact, just the opposite, because as highlighted in the chart above, net Coupon issuance in Q2 is actually expected to increase by $130BN to $447BN from $318BN in Q1. This is a huge shift in higher duration supply, and is hardly what all those who were buying 10Y bonds on Monday were expecting, and yes, that too was to be expected: with Bills now well above the “comfortable” ceiling of 20% as a percentage of total debt outstanding, the Treasury had no choice but to roll it back, especially since the Reverse Repo is already mostly drained. And sure enough, in its presentation, the Treasury no longer anticipates a flood of Bill issuance in the future. 

That’s not all: while the Treasury said it does “not anticipate needing to make any further increases in nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes, beyond those being announced today, for at least the next several quarters”, the TBAC politely disagreed, stating that “it may be appropriate over time to consider incremental increases in coupon issuance depending on how the current uncertainty regarding borrowing needs evolves”  (translation: as the need to bribe the population with more fiscal stimmies ahead of November rises, so will borrowing needs).

As for any naive expectations that any decline in issuance in structural instead of merely shifting away from Bills to Coupons, we have some more bad news: as the table below confirms, the Primary Dealer estimate of the US 2024 budget deficit dropped just $22BN in the past quarter, from $1.8 trillion to $1.778 trillion, a meaningless change (expect this number to rise sharply as the full brunt of fiscal stimulus in an election year become visible).

As for the bigger picture, well you can listen to either the Primary Dealers…

… or the CBO:

Both reach the same sad conclusion, the same one voiced by Nassim Taleb on Monday when he said that “we need something to come in from the outside, or maybe some kind of miracle…. This makes me kind of gloomy about the entire political system in the Western world.”

Sorry, Nassim, no miracles… just lots and lots of money printing coming.

And speaking of money printing, the fact that Bill issuance is about to grind to a halt in Q2 means that, just as we expected, reverse repo balances will tumble in the remaining two months of Q1…

… bringing it effectively to zero (which means the Treasury’s stock market liquidity pump is now almost drained), at which point the Fed will have to take over and taper QT as the alternative would be draining some $100BN in reserves every month at a time when total Fed reserves are already at the level which Waller hinted may be the infamous LoLCR floor which is a hard constraint at “10-11% of GDP.” The alternative is simple: a stock market crash just months before the November election, hardly the stuff Biden’s handlers or the anti-Trump Deep State would approve of.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/31/2024 – 11:05

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“One Of The Most Brilliant Explanations Of The Modern World”: Russell Brand Sits With Tucker Carlson For Explosive Interview

“One Of The Most Brilliant Explanations Of The Modern World”: Russell Brand Sits With Tucker Carlson For Explosive Interview

Russell Brand flew too close to the sun, it would seem. Just as the popular British comedian was gaining massive attention for confronting global authoritarianism, he was hit with an onslaught of sexual allegations by anonymous accusers, which were amplified throughout the mainstream media.

Brand, known for his left-leaning ideology, articulate critique of the war in Ukraine, and the history of NATO leading up to said war, drew a clandestine ‘shadow campaign’ against him, which according to Tucker Carlson, “began with governments, not private organizations, but governments, their Intel services and their policy makers.” Brand was even attacked “as a Chinese propagandist” for his views on Ukraine.

I’ve never been to China. I don’t purport to understand China, certainly don’t advocate for Chinese policy,” Brand told Carlson, who suggested that the ‘Chinese propagandist’ allegations were nothing more than “the early seeds of a very deceptive plant that flowered more than a year later, in September, when you were accused of these crimes,” referring to the sexual assault allegations.

“You were making kind of a remarkable case against the Ukrainian people and certainly not in favor of Russia,” Carlson noted, to which Brand replied: “All we’ve essentially done is listen to brilliant academics talking about the history of NATO and the coup in 2014, in Ukraine, and Putin’s explicit declaration that he would prefer, let’s put it mildly, that Ukraine were not invited into NATO, the sum of the regional disputes, how they’re escalating tensions. This is information that, because of independent media, is available.

Brand was also attacked after Moderna ‘tracked his content’ during the pandemic, and thinks that we’re at a major inflection point for independent voices.

It seems to me ridiculously grandiose to even imagine that I would stir and arouse the interests of such powerful agencies and groups that the British government, if indirectly, would spend considerable sums on observing and amplifying content. That true information shared through our platforms in the period of the pandemic was censored, was cited as high risk that companies like Moderna had spent considerable revenue tracking our content and agenda, amplifying it. That Dame Caroline Diana, whose husband is a psyops expert that worked abroad in terrorism before deploying those methods and techniques, and to some degree, those teams to observe what they called disinformation and misinformation in the UK. I recognize that the new emergent media spaces present a lot of possibilities.

I’m not sure if anybody could be sure of where this is all heading, what the exact teleology is. But it seems to be to do with mass centralization, globalization, significant attempts to control the information space that are so rigorously adhered to and protected that even what you might imagine to be a marginal voice is considered a significant enough threat to warrant coordinated media attacks, expenditure on peculiar, clandestine non-government organizations, and think tanks that take their money from the military industrial complex, from the legacy media who, by the way, when they critique critiquing independent media, they got skin in the game.

Brand also acknowledges that he put himself in an “extremely vulnerable position by being very, very promiscuous,” adding “And as you have actually said, we all know how this ends. Attacks like this, a crisis like this. Hurtful though it is to be accused of what I consider to be the most appalling crimes to be accused of.”

How can you live in the ridiculousness of their version of events? I couldn’t have been more open and public about the way that I lived when I was younger. I was promiscuous. If anyone wanted to have sex with me, I’d have sex with them. I publicly announced it at the beginning of all shows.

Authoritarianism and the Uniparty

Brand described what he said was “rapidly escalating” authoritarianism and “totalitarian” tactics by information gatekeepers to ‘de-amplify’ him.

This seems totalitarian. To control what people are allowed to think – I think that’s the definition of it,” said Carlson, to which Brand agreed, arguing that the ‘uniparty’ is in lockstep against the free flow of information.

They’re not really pretending. Like, here’s a sort of an extraordinary thing that appears to be playing out. In addition to just being casually informed by the legacy media that we’re on the precipice of war with Russia, and that conscription might be reintroduced in 2024. The there was a there was a Covid inquiry in our country, which, by the way, I don’t imagine for a second would have happened without independent media reporting, without voices like Jay Bhattacharya, who was shut down, or voices like Michael Shellenberger or Berenson, people that have been shut down and vilified at large and extensively. The Covid inquiries already cost 245 million pounds, is being booted off and delayed indefinitely. But at least until after the general election, like many countries, there’s an election in our country this year, but as usual, it’s between two neo liberal what you might term centrist parties that are ultimately dominated and controlled by the same concerns, where an extraordinary focus is spent on the tiny minute differences. But it’s the party nominally of the left is ultimately a centralist, neo liberal party. The party, nominally of the right, is a neo liberal, centralist party. They may quibble about some issues that seem significant, and certainly those issues are stoked and amplified. But neither party will say we are going to have a thorough investigation into what went on in that pandemic. That clearly was a lab leak. It looks like it was a bioweapon. It’s being concealed.

Asking the right questions

Carlson noted that while major media organizations may not seem interested in pursuing serious questions about deadly world conflicts, to which Brand said that he’s simply asking questions that a normal person would ask after educating himself “by listening to more educated voices than my own.”

“So forgive my ignorance. I don’t know much about British politics, but the way that one might intuit, hey, should we not be provoking Russia into a war zone?” Brand replied. “They have nuclear weapons. Should we think very carefully about that? I mean, how much do we want Ukraine in NATO? Do we even need NATO? Anyway? The kind of things you might think if you didn’t go to university, you’re a regular blue collar person working for a living, maybe in the police force or the fire service, or as a nurse or as a teacher, something that gives real value to your nation, the kind of things you might think they’re true.”

Brand then noted that society is distracted by design, saying “Those ideas are true. And in order to prevent you from reaching those ordinary, everyday regulations, a machine is put to constant work to conquer the space of your attention, incessantly and relentlessly filling your mind with dumb ideas and dumb distractions, making you believe there’s a dash, some sugar, or a screen might be a convenient palliative as your children are marched off into an unwinnable forever war.”

Freedom in exchange for safety

Brand also opined on MSM propaganda and fear campaigns, noting that authoritarianism is now “deliberately veiled in the insidious language of care, concern, safety, and convenience,” and that “We’re in a time where we lurch from one crisis to another.”

“The crisis is always used to legitimize certain solutions and a docile or terrified public is willingly to participate in this proposed solutions that usually involve giving up their freedom,” Brand said, adding “We’re continually being invited to give up our freedom in exchange for safety or convenience and it seems that this process is radically escalating. And I feel that this is something that we will see more of in the coming year. I feel like you’ve spoken publicly about this – that we’re potentially on the precipice of serious, and to use your term ‘a hot war with Russia.’ And that’s being reported on in my country right now – it’s like we’re being prepped, groomed, primed for ‘war is coming.”

We’re being kept in a state of constant anxiety in order to induce compliance,” Brand continued. “That the ongoing stoking of cultural tension is to ensure that people don’t begin to recognize that actually we have far more in common with one another than we do with these curious sets of the establishment interests that seems to be transcendent of national democracy. To be explicit, I’m talking about organizations like the WHO, NATO, the WEF and their astonishing influence.”

“These think tanks, and apparently independent organizations, who are not independent when you look at where they get their money – Big Pharma, or the government, or the military-industrial complex. Or the kind of people they employ – people from Deep State agencies, such as the FBI and CIA – that have extraordinary affinity with the legacy media and their ongoing agenda.”

Watch below, and while this interview has been published in its entirety on X – subscribe to tuckercarlson.com here.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/31/2024 – 10:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/rxmq0j2 Tyler Durden