Yields Jump Despite Stellar 10Y Auction

Yields Jump Despite Stellar 10Y Auction

After yesterday’s stellar 3Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $39BN in a 10Y reopening of 9Y-11M cusipg LF6, which for the second day in a row, saw remarkable demand.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 3.648%, which was 31.2bps below last month’s 3.96% and was the lowest since May 2023; it also stopped through the When Issued 3.662 by 1.4bps, the 3rd through in the past 4 auctions, and a clear reversal to last month’s ugly 3.1bps tail.

The bid to cover was 2.637, a big jump from the 2.317 in August, and the highest since June’s 2.67%.

The internals were even more impressive, with Indirects awarded 76.1%, the biggest award going to foreign buyers since February 2023. And with Directs taking down 13.7%, Dealers were left holding just 10.2%, the lowest since August 2023.

Yet despite the stellar 10Y auction, with yields already trading at 2023 lows earlier in the day only to spike higher after the hotter CPI print, before reversing, and the reversing again after the NVDA stick save sent money chasing risk assets once more, yields actually moved higher on the auction results, and were rapidly approaching session highs of 3.68%.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/11/2024 – 13:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/h6x8gv7 Tyler Durden

Israel Offers To End War: Hamas Leader Sinwar To Be Given Safe Passage If All Hostages Returned

Israel Offers To End War: Hamas Leader Sinwar To Be Given Safe Passage If All Hostages Returned

Israel’s top official who is overseeing the (so far) failed truce talks with Hamas has said Israel is ready to offer Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar safe passage if all the hostages are returned. Upon that condition, the war in Gaza war can come to an end, the senior official said.

This came direct from Israeli hostage envoy Gal Hirsch during an interview with Bloomberg published Tuesday. “I’m ready to provide safe passage to Sinwar, his family, whoever wants to join him,” Hirsch said.

“We want the hostages back. We want demilitarization, de-radicalization of course — a new system that will manage Gaza,” the top Israeli negotiator added. In essence he has stipulated that Hamas must agree to exit Gaza, and relinquish power there.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, via AFP

Hirsch described that this unprecedented safe passage offer was put on the table less than 48 hours ago, but did not reveal whether a response was received or the nature of any Hamas reaction to it.

Yet he also admitted in the interview that the prospect of achieving a deal looks more and more unlikely. So the safe passage offer looks like a desperate last-ditch effort to get talks back on track.

Sinwar has long been seen as the mastermind behind the Oct.7 terror attacks on southern Israel. But even if the Hamas chief took up the offer, he would still remain on the run even abroad. This is because, as Bloomberg explains, Israeli intelligence has a proven history of tracking the movements of Hamas officials abroad and assassinating them:

It’s unclear whether Hamas would accept the proposal for Sinwar to leave Gaza, especially given Israel’s history of operations targeting operatives abroad.

Israel hasn’t taken responsibility for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 in Tehran. But Iran has said the killing — Haniyeh was slain in a bomb blast at a Tehran guest house — was Israel’s handiwork.

Hirsch continued by saying there are still other options even if Hamas doesn’t agree to this big offer of safe passage for Sinwar. “In parallel, I must work on plan B, C and D because I must bring the hostages back home,” he explained, adding that “The clock is ticking, the hostages do not have time.”

Indeed the last six hostages to be recovered from the tunnels had been slain shortly before Israel’s military (IDF) could reach them. This has outraged the hostage victims’ families, who have also accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of being lukewarm in seeking the return of the captives. They say he’s recklessly prioritized the military operation to defeat Hamas so much so that it’s put the remaining some 100 hostages in danger.

Recent days have witnessed more record-breaking protests in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem:

Hamas has since warned that it will continue executing hostages if the IDF forces its way close to their locations. So the prospect of future daring military rescue raids returning hostages alive is looking more bleak.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/11/2024 – 12:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/t3NMZci Tyler Durden

Nvidia Soars After CEO Says “Demand For AI Chips Is So Great” Customer Relations Are “Tense”

Nvidia Soars After CEO Says “Demand For AI Chips Is So Great” Customer Relations Are “Tense”

For the second day in a row, the market needed a sticksave, and got it thanks to – guess who – Nvidia.

Earlier this morning we reminded readers that NVDA was set to present at the Goldman Tech conference in San Fran…

… an event we said would have greater significance than the CPI print, and sure enough that’s what happened, because as stocks were slumping and were threatening to take out Friday’s lows…

… a soundbite from NVDA CEO Jensen Huang saved the day yet again.

As quoted by Bloomberg, Huang said that “the demand on [chips] is so great, and everyone wants to be first and everyone wants to be most.” He added that “we probably have more emotional customers today. Deservedly so. It’s tense. We’re trying to do the best we can.”

Huang also said that Nvidia leans heavily on Taiwan Semiconductor for production of its most important chips and does so because that company is the best in its field by a large margin. But geopolitical tension has raised risks. China sees TSMC’s home island as a rogue province, stoking concerns that it might try to reclaim the territory. That could potentially cut off Nvidia from the key supplier.

Huang also said he develops much of the company’s technology in-house and that should allow Nvidia to switch orders to alternative suppliers. Still, such a change would likely result in a reduction in quality of his chips.

TSMC’s “agility and their capability to respond to our needs is just incredible,” he said. “And so we use them because they’re great, but if necessary, of course, we can always bring up others.”

In any case all the market heard is “demand is great”, which sent NVDA stock soaring from a session low of $107 to a session high of $113…

… which has also pushed the broader market to session highs:

  • *NASDAQ 100 ERASES DECLINES, GAINING 0.1%

And just like that stocks have been sticksaved once again.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/11/2024 – 12:23

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/s3lmbcB Tyler Durden

“Joy” is going to drive gold prices to absurd levels

Taylor Swift’s announcement pretty much said it all.

After last night’s Presidential debate, the pop star publicly endorsed Kamala Harris because “she is a steady-handed, gifted leader” who fights for “LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body. . .”

I really try to keep an open mind and understand other people’s opinions. But I personally have an extremely difficult time comprehending how someone thinks abortion and LGBTQ rights are the most important problems facing the country right now.

This is a pivotal moment in history. The United States is in serious decline. Among other critical challenges, the national debt is $35 trillion and is set to grow by at least $22 trillion over the next decade (according to the government’s own forecasts).

The impact of this extreme debt level cannot be overstated. The US dollar will almost certainly lose its reserve status, inflation will soar, and the government will most likely default on key promises like Social Security.

On top of that is the invasion at the southern border, the threat of war, the decline in US military readiness, full-blown government dysfunction, and America’s waning power in the world.

But none of these issues makes it onto Swift’s list of priorities. And given the eight million “likes” within the first few hours of her making that post, she’s obviously far from alone.

Yes, I recognize that abortion and LGBTQ rights are concerns for some people. But the geopolitical and economic security of the world’s dominant superpower is something that affects literally every single person alive.

Kamala has positioned herself as the “joy” candidate. And sure, she’s all about abortion and LGBTQ. But from an economic and security perspective, she’s a total disaster.

She wants to give $25,000 to every first-time home buyer (without even a basic understanding that this will only serve to make starter homes more expensive by… duh… $25,000!)

She blames inflation on “greed” and insists that she’ll bring down prices by fighting grocery stores in court. She’s also floated price controls as a way to bring down inflation.

Kamala sees bigger government as the way to solve problems (even though this typically just makes things worse) and will almost certainly oversee soaring deficits that America simply cannot afford.

Again, the Congressional Budget office already forecasts a total of $22 trillion in deficit spending over the next decade– and most of that within the next 5-7 years, i.e. a theoretical Kamala administration.

And most likely her ideas will make that number much, much worse… which is what brings me to gold.

I want to clarify first that I’m not a “gold-bug”. I don’t have a fanatical view that gold is a magical solution to all the world’s problems.

But it’s obvious to me that there is tremendous upside for gold, even though it’s already at an all-time high. Here’s why:

As recently as 2020, the gold price dipped below $1,500 per ounce. Today it is trading at $2,500 per ounce.

That’s a 66% surge in price which has been driven largely by central bank purchase. In fact, most retail investors have been SELLING gold, if you look at gold ETF outflows. So, while individuals were selling, central banks were buying… sending gold prices to record highs.

In a typical year, central banks around the world buy an average of roughly 500 metric tons of gold annually.

But from 2022 through mid-2024, that figure doubled, with central banks purchasing an average of 1,000 tons per year.

In other words, central banks have purchased an additional 500 tons per year over the past 2 ½ years… for a total of 1,250 metric tons of ‘excess’ central bank gold demand since early 2022.

The value of these 1,250 metric tons of gold over the past few years amounts to about $80 billion.

So, think about it– central banks around the world, from Poland to China to Mongolia to India to Singapore– used some of their foreign reserve stockpiles of US dollars to buy gold.

This means that $80 billion worth of foreign reserves that was taken out of US dollars and invested in gold caused the gold price to surge from $1500 to $2500.

Guess how many US dollars in total are sitting on central bank balance sheets around the world in total?

More than $8 TRILLION.

So, $80 billion was enough to make gold rise from $1500 to $2500… yet central banks still have more than 100x as much US dollar reserves on their balance sheets.

What will happen to the gold price if the foreign central banks invest even 5% of their reserves into gold?

My guess is that the gold price will go a LOT higher. And on top of that, hedge funds and individual investors will probably jump on the bandwagon too. ETF holdings will go through the roof, and the gold price will go even higher.

The reasoning is pretty simple; as foreign nations continue to lose confidence in the US government, will they continue to hold so much of their reserves in US dollars? Probably not. And again, we’re already seeing early signs of the decline in foreign holdings of dollars.

My guess is that Kamala will push that trend into light speed.

So even though gold is already at an all-time high, I think a Kamala victory means MUCH higher prices over the next few years.

Source

from Schiff Sovereign https://ift.tt/VPK1pIc
via IFTTT

Lithium Bear Market Over? UBS Says Chinese Battery Giant Curbs Production

Lithium Bear Market Over? UBS Says Chinese Battery Giant Curbs Production

Western electric vehicle demand downgrades in the last 1.5 years have been one of the driving forces behind lithium prices collapsing from a peak in late 2022 into a nasty bear market. Oversupply of the critical battery metal has since become a significant concern in recent quarters as EV demand flounders in a period of high interest rates and elevated automobile prices. However, there is good news: China’s monthly lithium carbonate production is set to fall, and this production downshift has already started pushing prices upward.

On Tuesday, UBS analyst Sky Han revealed that Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. halted production at a major mine in Jiangxi province, easing oversupply fears for the silvery-white metal.

“According to our channel checks with several contacts, CATL finally decides to suspend its lithium lepidolite operation in Jiangxi after a meeting on 10 September,” Han said. 

She estimated the mine’s closure could slash about 8%, or 5k to 6k metric tons of China’s monthly carbonate production:

“CATL’s suspension of lithium operation in Jiangxi will lead to 8% or 5-6kt LCE production cut of China monthly Li2CO3 production, and help rebalance the supply with demand.” 

“After making a loss for two months in lithium business and continuous downside risk on lithium price, we finally see normal supply response from a marginal-cost producer,” she said. 

The analyst expects an 11%- 23% upside in the Chinese lithium price for the rest of the year. Prices jumped 5.6% to about 75,500 yuan per ton on Wednesday. Prices have slid 88% during the EV downturn that began in late 2022. 

Han cautioned that past rumors about suspended mine operations were inaccurate:

“It’s not the first time for us to hear CATL to cut/suspend lithium production in Jiangxi. Although the previous news turned out to be speculation, we get higher conviction this time.” 

Meanwhile, lithium stocks from Australia to China surged (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Australia: MinRes up 16%, Liontown +13%, IGO +11%, Pilbara +4.9%, Arcadium Lithium +11%
  • China: Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi up by maximum 10% in China, Chengxin Lithium gains as much as 7.2%

Tribeca portfolio manager Ben Cleary told Financial Review, “The rally we’re seeing today is almost 100 percent short covering,”  adding, “Supply coming out of the market is exactly what the lithium market needs, so there is plenty of room for this rebound to run given how hard the stocks have been hit.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/11/2024 – 12:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/q7SecDZ Tyler Durden

WATCH: Melania Trump Speaks On Assassination Attempt against Her Husband

WATCH: Melania Trump Speaks On Assassination Attempt against Her Husband

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

Former First Lady Melania Trump released a video Tuesday addressing the assassination attempt against Donald Trump for the first time publicly.

In her video, Melania urges the public to get to the bottom of what happened on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania.

The attempt to end my husband’s life was a horrible, stressful experience. Now, the silence around it feels heavy. I can’t help but wonder: Why didn’t law enforcement officials arrest the shooter before the speech?” she asked.

“There is definitely more to this story, and we need to uncover the truth.”

Melania’s video linked to her website, which is promoting her forthcoming memoirs.

According to Trump, his First Lady was watching the Butler rally live when the shooting happened.

She couldn’t believe it. She was actually watching it live, can you imagine? And then I get up, and I let people know I was okay,” Trump said in an interview last month with Fox News host Mark Levin.

“She couldn’t believe it. She was actually watching it live, can you imagine? And then I get up, and I let people know I was OK,” he said.

Trump also said his youngest son, Barron, learned of the assassination attempt against his father during a tennis lesson.

“Barron was outside having a tennis lesson,” Trump, 78, told Levin. “He’s a good tennis player. And somebody ran up and said, ‘Barron! Barron! Your father’s been shot!’ … “He loves his father. He’s a good kid, good student, good athlete actually — and he ran, ‘Mom! What’s going on? What’s going on?’”

Trump also said Melania doesn’t like thinking about the attack.

“When I could talk to people I said, ‘So what was your feeling?’, and she said she can’t even talk about it, which is okay because that means she likes me,” he said.

Ken Silva is a staff writer at Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/jd_cashless.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/11/2024 – 11:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/r0Yzevw Tyler Durden

Debate Post-Mortem: Trump Was Trump, Harris Held Up, And Moderators Played Partisan Tricks

Debate Post-Mortem: Trump Was Trump, Harris Held Up, And Moderators Played Partisan Tricks

The initial reaction to last night’s debate was that Trump was Trump, the moderators became debaters, and Harris, while nervous and rehearsed, didn’t crash and burn – leading to an initial kneejerk in the betting markets favoring the Vice President’s odds in November.

While some conservative sites have called the debate for Trump, along with speaker Mike Johnson…

…most on the left are celebrating – with Punchbowl News writing that “Tuesday night’s debate couldn’t have gone better for Harris.”

Politico writes: “Trump’s Improv Stood No Chance Against Harris’ Coached Attacks.”

Harris’ strategy in her first debate as a presidential nominee was custom-tailored for one specific moment and one specific opponent. She plainly used her long days of debate prep in a Pittsburgh hotel to compile a rich anthology of taunts, putdowns and derisive one-liners against former President Donald Trump.

Of course, Trump was in a 3-on-1 debate:

And Harris was allowed to get away with murder:

In fact, here are the ‘top 5 lies’ that ABC News moderators failed to fact-check via Collin Rugg:

1. Mandatory Firearm Buybacks:

Kamala Harris told Trump to “stop lying” about her wanting to confiscate firearms. Harris has previously stated multiple times that she wants to launch a mandatory buyback program.

The ABC moderators said nothing.

2. “Fine People” Hoax:

Kamala Harris claimed Trump called neo-N*zi’s “very fine people.” This hoax was debunked by Snopes but the ABC moderators let it slide.

The ABC moderators said nothing.

3. Post-Birth Abortion:

Trump claimed babies were ‘k*lled’ outside the womb in failed abortions. Under Tim Walz, babies born alive in botched abortions are allowed to be left to d*e.

Eight babies who survived abortions in Minnesota were abandoned and sadly perished under Walz.

The ABC moderators simply said Trump was lying and moved on without adding context.

4. Defund the Police:

Kamala Harris laughed when Trump said she wanted to defund the police. During a previous interview, Harris said having more cops on the street is “wrong.”

She also supported taking police officers out of schools.

The ABC moderators said nothing.

5. Bloodbath Hoax:

Kamala Harris claimed Trump said there would be a bl**dbath if he is not elected, insinuating that his supporters would start k*lling people.

This is completely false. The comment was made during a rally where Trump said there would be a “bl**dbath” for the American auto industry if he is not elected.

The ABC moderators said nothing.

While Goldman notes that the debate “seems to have gone in favor of Harris judging by betting markets and the reaction in assets overnight.,” ING suggest a ‘wait and see’ approach, writing this AM: “Markets may want to wait on new opinion polls in the coming days to take more decisive positions on the election,” adding “For now, indications that Harris won this debate, even if by a small margin, can keep a lid on the dollar.”

That said, according to Reuters, 70% of an admittedly small polling group of undecided voters said they would either vote for Trump, or were leaning towards backing him.

The encounter was particularly important for Harris, with a weekend New York Times/Siena College opinion poll showing that more than a quarter of likely voters feel they do not know enough about her, in contrast to the well-known Trump.
 
The Trump converts said they trusted him more on the economy, even though all said they did not like him as a person. They said their personal financial situation had been better when he was president between 2017-2021. Some singled out his proposal to tax foreign imports, although economists say that is likely to raise prices.

Meanwhile, the media is already starting to lie and gaslight. For starter’s the New Yorker‘s Susan Glasser has never heard of Harris’ plan that would support taxpayer-funded gender care and transition surgeries for detained illegal aliens.

Except it’s true, and CNN even covered it:

Many are saying this won’t move the needle much in either direction.

Of course Harris wants a 2nd debate…

That said, as ZeroHedge friend and contributor “Quoth the Raven” suggests, the debate will backfire for both Harris and ABC

After last night, when the average critically thinking, independent or moderate voter begins to emerge from the visceral reaction of who “won” the debate, the picture will start to come into focus. And it’ll be a picture of a news network that constantly tried to fact-check Donald Trump, despite Kamala Harris repeating multiple debunked conspiracy theories, like Trump’s Charlottesville comments, which were already debunked by Snopes, and his “bloodbath” comment, which was used in the context of talking about the auto industry.

More people know today that the left-leaning media has a narrative and lies to them than ever before. This debate will be different from other ones because it’ll eventually be looked at in that context. And when people go back and watch how the moderators constantly argued the merits with Trump while leading Harris in her answers to multiple questions, this debate will be revealed for the biased farce that it was. And then — mark my words — it will do more harm than good for Kamala Harris.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/11/2024 – 11:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Ha9wFCx Tyler Durden

Crude Tumbles As Biden’s Dept of Energy Makes Mockery of Private Data; Cushing Draws 9 Of Past 10 Weeks

Crude Tumbles As Biden’s Dept of Energy Makes Mockery of Private Data; Cushing Draws 9 Of Past 10 Weeks

If ever in doubt whether the Biden admin will rig and manipulate “data” to suit its goals and policies, don’t be: moments ago the Biden Dept of Energy published its weekly EIA oil storage report, which was a shocking mirror image of everything the private API reported yesterday.

As a reminder, this is what API said happened to various energy stocks over the past week:

  • Crude -2.8MM (9th weekly draw in the past 10 weeks), and well below estimates of a +1.0MM build
  • Gasoline -0.5MM
  • Distillates +0.2MM
  • Cushing -2.6MM (also 9th weekly draw in the past 10 weeks)

The last one was especially notable as it represented the biggest weekly drain in Cushing stocks since August 18, 2023 and sent the oil inventory in Cushing storage low enough to reach the dreaded “tank bottoms.”

That’s when Kamala’s/Biden’s department of goalseeking data stepped in, and moments ago reported what can only be described as a laughable mirror image of everything the API indicated yesterday. Here are the details:

  • Crude +833K, Exp. +1.05MM
  • Gasoline +2.31MM
  • Distillates +2.308MM
  • Cushing -1.704MM
  • Production 13.3MMb/d, unch

That’s right: instead of 3 sets of draws, the EIA somehow found builds pretty much across the board, with Crude rising 833K, barely missing the estimate of 1.05MM (and a far cry from the 2.6MM draw per API) except for Cushing, which has emerged as the great source of all the liquidation magic we have observed in the past three months, and as shown below, Cushing has now drawn 9 out of the past 10 weeks!

One possible reason for the build is that in the past week, the Biden admin added just 279K to the SPR, the lowest weekly addition this year, and a huge swing from last week’s 1.8mm increase to the SPR,, which was the largest increase since June 2020.

The increase in stocks meant that after hitting a one  year low, total crude inventory (ex SPR) posted a small gain.

And even though the drop in Cushing was lower according to the EIA vs the API’s huge 2.8MM draw, 1-2 more weeks of this drain means that Cushing is still facing tank bottoms.

But there is still some time before we hit the bottom of Cushing: until then the CTAs and shorts are in control, and after staging a modest rebound, oil was slammed by over a buck to session lows, and just shy of the lowest level since 2021 (which in turn preceded a doubling in the price of oil in the next 3 months).

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/11/2024 – 10:54

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/372mQgA Tyler Durden

The Dangers Of Money Printing: Thomas Jefferson And The Financial Panic Of 1819

The Dangers Of Money Printing: Thomas Jefferson And The Financial Panic Of 1819

Authored by Mike Maharrey via Money Metals,

To steal a phrase from Thomas Jefferson, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have buried us under a “deluge of paper money.” 

We deal with the consequences of this monetary malfeasance every time we go to the grocery store or the gas station. Our rapidly deprecating money buys less and less every single day.

Central bankers and politicos claim to be fighting this inflationary monster, but the ugly truth is that inflation is by design. The political class is destroying your money as a matter of policy. 

This is nothing new. Government people have been ruining our money for their gain since the Republic’s earliest days. Sadly, most people don’t realize what’s happening. They believe price inflation is due to greedy corporations, Putin’s price hikes, or voodoo.

As Thomas Jefferson warned,The evils of this deluge of paper money are not to be removed until our citizens are generally and radically instructed in their cause & consequences.

Looking at the past can inform us about the present. As the saying goes, history doesn’t necessarily repeat. But it often rhymes. With that in mind, the first American boom-bust crisis in the early 19th century is informative.

During this period. Jefferson’s chilling warnings about unchecked fiat, paper money proved prophetic.

In an 1814 letter to Thomas Cooper, Jefferson wrote, “Every thing predicted by the enemies of banks, in the beginning, is now coming to pass. we are to be ruined now by the deluge of bank paper as we were formerly by the old Continental paper.

Just one year later, a depression gripped the United States kicked off by financial panic. This economic downturn lasted until 1821 and is widely viewed as the first boom-bust period in U.S. history. 

It was exactly what Jefferson predicted. 

The depression was rooted in an all-too-familiar problem – excessive money printing.

The economic downturn came on the heels of the War of 1812, which officially ended with the signing of the Treaty of Ghent on Feb. 18, 1815. After the war, banknotes began to rapidly depreciate due to the exponential increase in the amount of paper in circulation. 

The First Bank of the United States charter ended in 1811 and was not renewed. The Second Bank of the United States (SBUS) wasn’t created until 1816. This led to a proliferation of state-chartered banks.

As economist Murray Rothbard explained in his book, The Panic of 1819, to fund the war, the federal government turned to these state-chartered banks, and they issued large numbers of paper money banknotes far exceeding the amount of gold to back them. 

This caused gold to drain from these banks. To keep the money flowing, the U.S. government agreed to a suspension of specie payments from state banks and the situation persisted after the war ended. This allowed banks to make loans with little to no regard for gold reserves to bank them.

It was a formula for disaster.

Jefferson understood this all too well, making his views clear in his letter to Cooper. 

“I am an enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for any thing but coin. but our whole country is so fascinated with this Jack lanthern wealth, that they will not stop short of its total and fatal explosion”

On March 23, 1815, the U.S. entered a period of financial panic. It was followed by several years of mild depression culminating in a sharp economic downturn known as the Panic of 1819.

The panic was exacerbated by financial conditions in Europe in the wake of the Napoleonic wars, but it was fundamentally a domestic problem caused by money printing.

Whenever the money supply rapidly expands, as it did during the war years, it creates all kinds of malinvestments in the economy. The expansion of credit fueled land speculation in the West, that likely would not have happened in a more sound monetary environment. Historian George Dangerfield argued that the entire postwar American economy was “based on a land boom.”

Since the U.S. Treasury accepted payments for land in the form of state-issued bank notes, state-chartered banks helped fund this land boom. The problem was most of them lacked sufficient specie to back their paper. 

After it opened for business in 1817, the Second Bank of the United States (SBUS) jumped right in to further expand money and credit.

The SBUS had 18 branches. They were supposed to operate with oversight by the main bank in Philadelphia, but the oversight was lax. Meanwhile, the SBUS was supposed to regulate state banks. This oversight was also lax. 

Meanwhile, western branches of the national bank got caught up in the land boom mania and began issuing SBUS banknotes at a dizzying pace. In his book The Awakening of American Nationalism, Dangerfield noted that SBUS banks tried to restock their insufficient gold reserves by redeeming their notes for hard money at eastern and northern SBUS branches.

The result was, as Jefferson called it, “a deluge of bank paper” without sufficient gold backing.

According to Rothbard, by 1818, the Second Bank of the United States had demand liabilities exceeding $22.4 million. Its specie fund stood at a mere $2.4 million – a 10:1 ratio. A 5:1 ratio was considered sustainable. 

That year, the SBUS tried to rein in the problem by curtailing loans by its western branches. When state banks began presenting their banknotes for redemption at the Second Bank of the United States, it refused to provide gold specie from its reserves. There was simply too much paper and not enough gold. The state banks did the only thing they could do; they began foreclosing on heavily mortgaged farms and business properties. 

This led to widespread bankruptcies, bank failures, a collapse in real estate prices, and spiking unemployment. 

It was just what Jefferson predicted. 

In an 1819 letter to John Adams, Jefferson lamented that the situation would never change or even improve until people understood the root cause of the economic malaise – paper money.

“The evils of this deluge of paper money are not to be removed until our citizens are generally and radically instructed in their cause & consequences.”

Jefferson went on to pinpoint the root of the problem with paper money, “want of a stable, common measure of value, that now in use being less fixed than the beads & wampum of the Indian.”

Jefferson was responding to a letter penned by Adams discussing Chapter 6 of the 1817 Treatise on Political Economy by Destutt de Tracy. Adams cited a passage calling the printing of paper money more ruinous and a greater theft than empires of old shaving off a little gold from their coins and passing them off as full-weight. In other words, Tracy called it stealing.

“A theft of greater magnitude & still more ruinous is the making of paper. It is greater because in this money there is absolutely no real value. It is more ruinous because by its gradual depreciation during all the time of its existence it produces the effect which would be produced by an infinity of successive deteriorations of the coin.”

Adams put it in even harsher terms, writing to Jefferson:

“That is to say an infinity of successive felonious larcenies. If this is true as I believe it is we Americans are the most thievish people that ever existed, we have been stealing from each other for an hundred & fifty years.” [emphasis added]

How much worse are things today?

We can accurately predict another economic meltdown in the future because, after more than 200 years, the problem of paper money remains. The people still have not become radically instructed as to the cause and consequences of the boom-bust cycle that’s fueled by printing massive amounts of paper (and today, electronic) money.

The government continues to print it at a dizzying pace. Just consider that the Federal Reserve created nearly $9 trillion out of thin air since the 2008 financial crisis through quantitative easing alone. That was on top of the expansion of money and credit due to more than a decade of artificially low interest rates.

Economic principles don’t change with the times. In 1788, Jefferson wrote, “Paper is poverty … it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself.

It’s still true today.

In other words, Jefferson called it.

His foresight underscores the enduring danger of paper money and government excess, echoing through history’s economic crises.

The Tenth Amendment Center contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/11/2024 – 10:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/tRjGfyA Tyler Durden

Israeli Black Hawk Down In Rafah, Several Dead & Injured

Israeli Black Hawk Down In Rafah, Several Dead & Injured

An Israeli Black Hawk helicopter has gone down while engaged in operations in south Gaza, which is a first of the war which has raged for over ten months.

Two soldiers were killed, and eight were injured in the crash and have been rushed to hospitals. The two deceased have been subsequently identified by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) as 37-year old Sgt. Maj. Daniel Alloush of Tel Aviv and 38-year old Sgt. Maj. Tom Ish-Shalom of Nes Harim. Both were part of reserve forces.

Illustrative file image: Israeli AF

Military officials are describing it as a crash and not the result of enemy ground fire, but which resulted in serious damage to the aircraft. It happened in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah. It has been identified as a UH-60 Black Hawk from the 123rd Squadron.

“According to an initial IAF probe, a UH-60 Black Hawk from the 123rd Squadron flew to Rafah with a Unit 669 medical team on Tuesday night to evacuate a combat engineer seriously wounded in fighting in the area,” Israeli media details.

“During the final landing stage inside an Israeli army encampment in Rafah at around 12:30 a.m., the helicopter impacted the ground instead of touching down correctly,” the same report continues.

If the Black Hawk had crashed in a more open area with active Hamas militants, there’s a high chance that the eight injured may not have made it out. But given it occurred within the confines of an IDF forward operating base, it appears the emergency response was immediate and rapid, perhaps saving more lives.

Aftermath of the crash, via Israeli military/TOI

Some among the wounded are said to be critical. According to more from Times of Israel based on military statements:

Among the seriously wounded in the crash were two pilots and a mechanic with the IAF’s 123rd Squadron; and a reservist doctor and another soldier with Unit 669.

Additionally, a reservist Unit 669 doctor and another mechanic with the 123rd Squadron were moderately wounded in the crash, the IDF said.

The seriously wounded combat engineer, who was supposed to be evacuated by the crashed Black Hawk, served with the 710th Combat Engineering Battalion.

It is somewhat rare for Black Hawks to crash in active war zones, and brings up images of the most famous such incident: the Black Hawk Down Incident which occurred during the Battle of Mogadishu in October 1993 in Somalia.

The result of that historic tragedy was that 18 American troops, including elite special forces commandos, were killed, and another 84 wounded. In that instance an RPG had brought the helicopter down, and the crash survivors spent hours fending off hundreds of Somali militants.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/11/2024 – 10:24

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/rQvbRSg Tyler Durden